Cone of Nicholas Shifts East, Now Includes Houston, Hurricane Watch Expanded

The 10 AM update from the National Hurricane Center shows that the eye of Nicholas is reforming yet again – further east from where it first reformed earlier today near Brownsville. This means that the cone of uncertainty for Nicholas has expanded. It now includes the entire Houston Area. And although chances of a hurricane are low, the hurricane watch has been extended northward to San Luis Pass.

Nicholas’ Cone Now Includes All of Houston

Remember that every place within the cone has an equal change of having the storm pass over it.

Main Threats from Tonight to Tomorrow Night

Bands of heavy rainfall and gusty winds continue to spread inland from the coast and will increase in frequency and intensity this afternoon into tonight. Core of Nicholas will move across southeast Texas….especially areas south of I-10 overnight into Tuesday with significant rainfall likely. 

Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner warns that while Nicholas is not forecasted to become a hurricane, it is possible that it could landfall as a minimal hurricane….but this does NOT change the impacts.

Impact Predictions Remain Unchanged Since Last Update

Rainfall, wind, and storm surge impacts remain unchanged from my post earlier this morning.

Significant rains will begin early this evening and likely continue into Tuesday morning.

Rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour will be possible yielding rapid street flooding and significant rises on bayous and creeks.

Lindner’s main concern is watersheds south of I-10 (Clear Creek, Armand Bayou, Vince and Little Vince Bayous, Keegans Bayou, and possibly Brays Bayou). However, Lindner still sees risk north I-10.

Some bayous and creeks may overflow their banks. Structure flooding is possible tonight. The majority of the rainfall is going to be tonight into Tuesday morning. 

Residents should stay where they are after 6:00 PM this evening and remain there through the duration of Nicholas.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Best Ways to Monitor Nicholas

Closely monitor bayou and creek conditions and rainfall trends. The best way to do that is through the Harris County Flood Warning System.

Also, closely monitor the National Hurricane Center website. This page contains their latest satellite image updates. During storms like this, they update them hourly. Here’s one from 11:46 AM Houston time.

Nicholas as of 11:46 AM on Monday, 9/13/2021.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/13/2021 at 10:30 AM and again at Noon

1476 Days since Hurricane Harvey