After a week of worry! After adrenaline-fueled prep for two back-to-back hurricanes that could have wreaked havoc on Houston…I woke up refreshed this morning, walked to my weather window, and saw…nothing unusual. What happened? I checked my weather gauge. It read 0.00 inches of rain. Max winds since midnight: 3 mph.
It would appear the Houston Area dodged Laura’s silver bullet. But why? According to Harris County Meteorologist, Jeff Linder, two things spared us the wrath of Laura. First, Laura shifted slightly east. Second, as Laura intensified, the wind field pulled in tighter. That diminished feeder bands on the western side of the storm.
How Close Laura Came
Here are some radar and satellite images that show how close the storm came.
From Weather Live App at 5:55 am Thursday 8/27/2020
From the National Hurricane Centerat 5:56 am. Houston is the bright spot on the SW side of the swirl.
From the National Weather Service at 1:53 CDT as Laura came ashore.
From Lake Charles Louisiana radar at 12:46 am CDT. (This and following images from RadarScope Pro app.)
The shot above and the radar loop below show dramatically how the storm shifted east last night. The National Hurricane Center had predicted eye of the storm to move up the Sabine River near Port Arthur, about 40 miles west.
Radar Loop showing Laura coming onshore that started at 11:28pm 8/26/2020.
Little Rock, Arkansas radar at 5:41 am CDT as Laura approaches
HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…
CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING…
Fort Polk, Louisiana recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 70 mph (113 km/h). SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT…1100 UTC…
INFORMATION
LOCATION…30.9N 93.3W ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM N OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…964 MB…28.47 INCHES
Hurricane Guilt
After Hurricane Rita, which dodged Houston like Laura, I coined a term called “hurricane guilt.” It’s that feeling of elation you get when you realize the storm missed you…followed closely by the realization that it destroyed innocent lives elsewhere.
That’s what I feel right now. As I write this, the sun is rising and birds are singing. Soon images of Laura’s destruction will start to pour in. Only then will we know how lucky we were.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 6:45 am on 8/27/2020 based on information from NWS, NHC, RadarScope, and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
1094 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Laura-Wide-Shot-scaled.jpg?fit=1183%2C2560&ssl=125601183adminadmin2020-08-27 06:54:342020-08-27 07:33:07How Close Was Laura?
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control Meteorologist just issued a heavy rainfall warning. Lindner notes that the line of strong thunderstorms currently moving across the area will drop rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches.
The good news: the leading edge of this line is becoming detached from the outflow boundary. That suggests storms will weaken as they move southward. Rainfall rates which were 2-4 inches earlier over N Waller and Montgomery Counties have lessened to near 1-2 inches. The main threat now is short duration street flooding in areas with the heaviest rainfall.
Tonight’s Forecast
Lindner points to extremely active radar out west along the Rio Grande. He says that’s where the next round of weather will be developing. He expects it to move quickly toward our area tonight. Models show this line of storms quickly reaching the area between midnight and 400 a.m. But at the speed it’s moving, he predicts only another 1-2 inches for most areas with this line.
Intercontinental Radar as of 8PM Sunday night, 5/24/2020
Monday Prediction
Continued high rain chances. The air may take much of the morning and early afternoon to recover from the early morning line of weather, but temperatures will only need to reach the low 80’s to trigger more storms. It will not take much heating to set things off, he warns. Storm motions could be fairly slow Monday afternoon and this could lead to excessive rainfall rates in a short period of time.
Tuesday-Thursday: Continued Threat
Upper level disturbances remain parked over the state with rounds of storms at nearly any time. Heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat.
Rainfall Amounts Add Up Changing Nature of Threat
Lindner concludes, “Moisture profiles certainly support heavy to excessive rainfall rates as seen today and if storms slow of train for a period of times totals could quickly add up. Grounds will saturate over time leading to increasing and eventually maximum run-off conditions…so the threat may grow from mainly street flooding to potential rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers.”
Lindner concedes that it’s hard to pinpoint any day or time or location that has a higher flood risk than another. “So we will just have to closely watch each convective episode and be prepared to react quickly,” he says.
Impact of Today’s Rains on Elm Grove
Despite heavy rainfall this afternoon, Jeff Miller, an Elm Grove resident and frequent contributor, drove the streets of Elm Grove this evening. He notes that:
Streets still seem clear as of 8 p.m.
Taylor Gully is about half full, but water is flowing rapidly
Water level is about 2 feet from the top of the twin culverts at the Rustling Elms bridge.
Miller sees the possibility of that culvert being overflowed as a danger.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/24/2020 with reporting from Jeff Miller and Jeff Lindner
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Radar-524.jpg?fit=607%2C1200&ssl=11200607adminadmin2020-05-24 20:14:412020-05-25 05:31:20Heavy Rainfall Threat in Coming Days
Harris County Flood Control District’s final report on the May 7, 2019, storm indicates that 415 homes flooded in all of Harris County. It also indicates that 380 of those bordered Perry Homes’ Woodridge Village development across the county line in Montgomery County.
That’s a whopping 91.5% of all flooded homes in the most populous county in the State. And the third most populous in the nation.
Report Cites Sheet Flow from Woodridge Village as Potential Cause
The heaviest rain that day fell on northeast Harris and southeast Montgomery Counties. However, the report also cited “large volumes of sheet flow” from Woodridge Village as the potential cause of flooding for those bordering the development. A jury in Harris County will decide the cause in two months.
At the time, Perry Homes’ contractors had clearcut virtually the entire 268-acre development but had only completed about 7% of the detention ponds.
High-water rescues in progress the night of May 7, 2019, on Shady Maple in Elm Grove Village, Kingwood. About one block south of Woodridge Village.
For official reports on this and other storms, see the Reports Page of this website. Click on the Major Storms tab.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/8/2020
983 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 367 Days after the May 7th Storm
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Waist-e1588946935147.jpg?fit=1200%2C1057&ssl=110571200adminadmin2020-05-08 09:34:062020-05-08 10:04:56One Year Ago: 415 Homes Flooded in All of Harris County; 380 of Those Bordered Woodridge Village
Jeff Lindner, Director of Hydrologic Operations and Division Meterologist for Harris County Flood Control, just issued this warning”
“Multiple rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and some severe weather likely today into tonight.”
“Large cluster of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall extends from near Sealy to College Station and is moving eastward and will overspread much of the region N of I-10 over the next several hours. A second…powerful…bow echo with 70-80mph is rapidly approaching Corpus Christi and the coastal bend and may impact the Matagorda Bay area later this morning.”
“Active pattern will remain in place as several disturbances and a weak cold front move across the area today and tonight and into Saturday. Rounds of thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall and isolated severe weather. Main severe threats today will be mainly west of I-45 and some of the storms this morning over south-central TX have shown some weak rotation.”
“Expect the current round of storms to move across the area between now and 1-2pm followed by a brief break and then another…potentially stronger round this evening into the overnight period.”
“Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible today into early Saturday with isolated higher totals. In fact some of the higher resolution models are showing isolated amounts up to 4-5 inches under training bands today and tonight. Air mass is certainly moist and will be able to support some 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates which will lead to street flooding.”
River Forecast
“Area rivers are responding to the recent heavy rainfall and will remain elevated and in flood (Trinity). Additional rains today and tonight and then again next week will only increase rises. The area river and hydro situation is starting to become worrisome given the potential for this pattern to maintain for the next 1-2 weeks.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on April 3, 2019
612 Days since Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2019-05-03 09:41:282019-05-03 09:41:53Possible Street Flooding Today
Flash flooding and flooding will be possible Wednesday into Thursday. A band of heavy rainfall may form Wednesday morning from College Station to Crockett and heavy rainfall may continue to occur through the day. Gulf moisture will also move into the area and cause additional rainfall mainly east of I-45.
Southeast Texas has already had rainfall the last seven days which will cause any additional rainfall to runoff. Isolated thunderstorms may cause brief heavy rainfall of 1 inch an hour. Overall areas in the watch may get 2 to 3 inches of rainfall with isolated bands of 4 inches.
Potential Flood Impacts
In urban areas, street flooding and flooding of underpasses and typical low lying areas can be be expected. Bayous and creeks may have rapid rises and could reach out of banks. Rural low lying areas, low water crossings and poor drainage areas may flood. Rises on area rivers can be expected and this could extend river flooding that is on going.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Additional Guidance from Harris County Flood Control
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control’s meteorologist added this:
Widespread rainfall…some heavy…will lead to rises on area watersheds and potentially some flooding of creeks and rivers.
Upper level storm system is digging into the SW US and will impact the state for the next 24-36 hours.
As moisture increases from the SSW this evening, light rain and showers will develop and spread NNE into the area. A secondary front from roughly Lake Livingston to Columbus will likely remain stationary and be the focus for rainfall production tonight into early Wednesday in that region. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop by midday along the coast and inland south of the stalled inland front…this rainfall will likely become heavier in nature and slightly more convective with potentially higher rainfall rates. Upper level system will move across the area early Thursday with rains continuing before dry WNW winds sweep across the area in the afternoon ending rainfall.
Rainfall Amounts
Widespread rainfall of 2-3 inches looks likely over much of the area with isolated totals of 4-5 inches. Some fairly decent agreement in the models today with respect to two rainfall maximums over the area…the first over our NW/N counties tonight in Wednesday and then a second Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning from Houston ENE toward Liberty and then NE toward Lake Livingston. WPC has expended the slight risk of excessive rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance to include a larger part of SE TX. Think maximum hourly rainfall rates will be on the order of .5 to 1.25 inches which most urban areas will be able to handle. Overall fairly long duration of rainfall over a fairly large area will lead to significant amounts of run-off especially into area river systems as well as the creeks in northern Harris County.
Flash Flood Guidance
Flash Flood Guidance for the area is between 3.0-4.4 inches for 6-hrs which seems high and a review of soil saturation levels via the NASA SPORT webpage shows saturation levels of 65-70% over much of the area…or you can walk in the yard and quickly tell that the ground is still very wet from the rainfall on Sunday. Think much of what falls is going to run-off given how wet the ground is and widespread amounts of dormant vegetation.
Several watersheds are still high from the rainfall last Thursday and rainfall of this magnitude will likely result in renewed rises on nearly all watersheds. Main concern will be the Trinity and San Jacinto basins, along with the Navasota and Brazos. In Harris County, significant rises on Spring, Cypress, Little Cypress, Willow, Cedar, and the creeks that feed into Addicks and Barker Reservoirs are likely. Will also include lower Greens (east of US 59) and Halls, Hunting. Some of these watersheds may rise to levels that would impact low lying areas and roadways near the creek or bayou.
Flooding Probable on East and West Forks
Flooding on both the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto River (low lands and streets) certainly looks probable. At this time the threat for significant creek and bayou flooding as well as any flooding of structures is low.
Current thinking is that watersheds will see similar responses to last Thursday morning…although a few may see higher levels since they will be starting at higher current flows versus last Thursday.
Think hourly rainfall rates will be low enough to prevent widespread street flooding, but street flooding in areas of poor drainage and in rural areas where roadside ditches or small creeks spill onto the roadway will be possible.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/1/2019
480 Days Since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Balcom_25.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=110001500adminadmin2019-01-01 18:30:232019-01-01 18:30:29Flash Flood Watch Issued from 6 a.m. Wednesday to Noon Thursday
