Tag Archive for: Jeff Lindner

Hurricane Watch for Port Aransas to High Island

As of 4am Saturday, 9/19/20 (the 1-year anniversary of Imelda), the National Hurricane Center issued:

  • Hurricane Watches for Texas coast from Port Aransas to High Island
  • Tropical Storm Watches east of High Island into Louisiana and from Port Aransas to the Rio Grande
  • Storm Surge Watches from Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including all inland bays.

Discussion

There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week. Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time and create life-threatening storm surge.

Lake Friday, a USAF mission found a stronger tropical storm with winds of 60mph and a fairly large area of 40-50mph winds. Ships and oil platforms in the north-central Gulf of Mexico have reported winds above 40mph. The wind field is starting to expand toward the north.

Track: 

Beta is moving NNE at 12mph. Faster than expected. Beta will turn west around mid-day Saturday and decrease forward speed into early next week. This will bring Beta toward the middle Texas coast.

As Beta approaches the mid TX coast, weakening high pressure to the north will turn the storm toward the north and northeast. However, forecasters have lower-than-normal confidence as to when all this will happen.

The current National Hurricane Center forecast track is near the center of consensus for major global models, but shifts in this track will remain possible both toward the north or south.

Intensity: 

Beta intensified despite wind shear. As Beta moves over very warm western Gulf of Mexico waters, intensification will likely continue for the 24-48 hours. NHC now forecasts Beta to become an 80mph hurricane. As Beta begins to turn northeast and skirt the middle and upper TX coast, the storm may weaken. Some uncertainty remains in the intensity forecast.  

Tropical storm force winds will likely begin to arrive along the middle TX coast Sunday evening and spread northward into Matagorda Bay and along the upper TX coast by Monday. Hurricane conditions could reach the Matagorda Bay region on Tuesday.  

Impacts

Storm Surge: 

Water level rises along the upper TX coast will begin on Saturday and worsen Sunday into Monday due to the expansion of the tropical-storm-force wind field. This large wind field will also develop large swells over the NW Gulf of Mexico by Sunday into Monday with swells reaching 15-25 feet. On Sunday into Monday, expect 4-8 feet waves breaking on beaches. These large swells will lead to wave run up on top of elevated tides.

Large waves will accompany the higher tides. The prolonged nature of the event will result in significant beach erosion and damage to fragile dunes.

Expect inundation of low lying roads near the coast. Once the water begins to rise on Saturday evening, some low lying areas may remain flooded into the middle of next week.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Ferry operations at both the Galveston-Bolivar and the Lynchburg sites may be impacted. 

For SE Harris County:

From Saturday night into next week, coastal flooding will be possible in El Lago, Nassau Bay, Shoreacres, Seabrook and portions of Baytown near Goose Creek and Cedar Bayou.

This includes all areas around:

  • Clear Lake
  • Along Taylor’s Bayou in Shoreacres and Taylor Lake Village
  • Around the San Jacinto Monument and Lynchburg Ferry landing
  • In Seabrook areas along and east of Toddville Rd and in the waterfront area east of HWY 146.
  • The lower San Jacinto River at Rio Villa and other low lying areas south of US HWY 90.
  • Low lying areas in Galena Park and Jacinto City near the Houston Ship Channel
  • Lower portions of Greens and Hunting Bayous south of I-10.

Most flooding will happen in streets, low marsh lands, roads near Galveston Bay and around Clear Lake and some subdivisions streets.

Wave action from ENE/E winds across Galveston Bay of 2-4 feet will be possible on top of these tides along the west side of Galveston Bay and 1-3 feet in Clear Lake which may damage docks, bulkheads, and moored vessels. 

Rainfall

Rainfall will strongly depend on the track of Beta. Small changes could result in significant differences in rainfall amounts. Heaviest rains will likely be near the coast and offshore.

Any deviation of the track northward would bring the heavy rainfall further inland, likewise any south or east shift in the track would keep the heaviest rains off the coast.

  • Coast: 8-12 inches
  • Coastal counties: 6-8 inches
  • South of I-10: 4-6 inches
  • South of Hwy 105: 3-5 inches
  • North of Hwy 105: 1-3 inches

HCFCD models suggest that basin average rainfall totals of at least 6 inches would fill smaller creeks and bayous in Harris County (Willow Waterhole, Keegans Bayou, Willow Creek, Upper Little Cypress Creek).

Basin average amounts of 7-8 inches would fill Clear Creek, Hunting Bayou, Armand Bayou, Cypress Creek, Halls Bayou, Greens Bayou, White Oak Bayou, Buffalo Bayou, Cedar Bayou, and various smaller tributaries. 

Addicks and Barker Reservoirs are currently empty.

Winds: 

Tropical storm force winds may start Sunday evening around Matagorda Bay. Sustained 40mph winds likely spread northward along the upper TX coast on Monday including Galveston Bay.

Hurricane conditions will be possible near Matagorda Bay on Tuesday and across portions of coastal Matagorda, Brazoria, and Galveston Counties into Wednesday.

Across Harris County wind will increase into the 25-35mph range on Monday and possibly 40-50mph range on Tuesday into Wednesday with higher gusts, especially near Galveston Bay.  

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/19/2020 at 4am based on data from the National Hurricane Center and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.

1117 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 1 Year since Tropical Storm Imelda

How Close Was Laura?

After a week of worry! After adrenaline-fueled prep for two back-to-back hurricanes that could have wreaked havoc on Houston…I woke up refreshed this morning, walked to my weather window, and saw…nothing unusual. What happened? I checked my weather gauge. It read 0.00 inches of rain. Max winds since midnight: 3 mph.

It would appear the Houston Area dodged Laura’s silver bullet. But why? According to Harris County Meteorologist, Jeff Linder, two things spared us the wrath of Laura. First, Laura shifted slightly east. Second, as Laura intensified, the wind field pulled in tighter. That diminished feeder bands on the western side of the storm.

How Close Laura Came

Here are some radar and satellite images that show how close the storm came.

From Weather Live App at 5:55 am Thursday 8/27/2020
From the National Hurricane Center at 5:56 am. Houston is the bright spot on the SW side of the swirl.
From the National Weather Service at 1:53 CDT as Laura came ashore.
From Lake Charles Louisiana radar at 12:46 am CDT. (This and following images from RadarScope Pro app.)

The shot above and the radar loop below show dramatically how the storm shifted east last night. The National Hurricane Center had predicted eye of the storm to move up the Sabine River near Port Arthur, about 40 miles west.

Radar Loop showing Laura coming onshore that started at 11:28pm 8/26/2020.
Little Rock, Arkansas radar at 5:41 am CDT as Laura approaches

6 A.M. Update from NHC

At this instant, Laura has diminished to a Cat 2 storm. An update issued by the NHC at 6:00 a.m. says,

  • HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…
  • CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING…
  • Fort Polk, Louisiana recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 70 mph (113 km/h). SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT…1100 UTC…
INFORMATION
  • LOCATION…30.9N 93.3W ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM N OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
  • MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…170 KM/H
  • PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
  • MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…964 MB…28.47 INCHES

Hurricane Guilt

After Hurricane Rita, which dodged Houston like Laura, I coined a term called “hurricane guilt.” It’s that feeling of elation you get when you realize the storm missed you…followed closely by the realization that it destroyed innocent lives elsewhere.

That’s what I feel right now. As I write this, the sun is rising and birds are singing. Soon images of Laura’s destruction will start to pour in. Only then will we know how lucky we were.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 6:45 am on 8/27/2020 based on information from NWS, NHC, RadarScope, and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

1094 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Heavy Rainfall Threat in Coming Days

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control Meteorologist just issued a heavy rainfall warning. Lindner notes that the line of strong thunderstorms currently moving across the area will drop rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches.

The good news: the leading edge of this line is becoming detached from the outflow boundary. That suggests storms will weaken as they move southward. Rainfall rates which were 2-4 inches earlier over N Waller and Montgomery Counties have lessened to near 1-2 inches. The main threat now is short duration street flooding in areas with the heaviest rainfall.

Tonight’s Forecast 

Lindner points to extremely active radar out west along the Rio Grande. He says that’s where the next round of weather will be developing. He expects it to move quickly toward our area tonight. Models show this line of storms quickly reaching the area between midnight and 400 a.m. But at the speed it’s moving, he predicts only another 1-2 inches for most areas with this line.

Intercontinental Radar as of 8PM Sunday night, 5/24/2020

Monday Prediction 

Continued high rain chances. The air may take much of the morning and early afternoon to recover from the early morning line of weather, but temperatures will only need to reach the low 80’s to trigger more storms. It will not take much heating to set things off, he warns. Storm motions could be fairly slow Monday afternoon and this could lead to excessive rainfall rates in a short period of time.

Tuesday-Thursday: Continued Threat 

Upper level disturbances remain parked over the state with rounds of storms at nearly any time. Heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat.

Rainfall Amounts Add Up Changing Nature of Threat 

Lindner concludes, “Moisture profiles certainly support heavy to excessive rainfall rates as seen today and if storms slow of train for a period of times totals could quickly add up. Grounds will saturate over time leading to increasing and eventually maximum run-off conditions…so the threat may grow from mainly street flooding to potential rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers.”  

Lindner concedes that it’s hard to pinpoint any day or time or location that has a higher flood risk than another. “So we will just have to closely watch each convective episode and be prepared to react quickly,” he says.   

Impact of Today’s Rains on Elm Grove

Despite heavy rainfall this afternoon, Jeff Miller, an Elm Grove resident and frequent contributor, drove the streets of Elm Grove this evening. He notes that:

  • Streets still seem clear as of 8 p.m.
  • Taylor Gully is about half full, but water is flowing rapidly
  • Water level is about 2 feet from the top of the twin culverts at the Rustling Elms bridge.

Miller sees the possibility of that culvert being overflowed as a danger.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/24/2020 with reporting from Jeff Miller and Jeff Lindner

999 Days since Hurricane Harvey, 248 since Imelda, and four years since the last Memorial Day Flood.

One Year Ago: 415 Homes Flooded in All of Harris County; 380 of Those Bordered Woodridge Village

Harris County Flood Control District’s final report on the May 7, 2019, storm indicates that 415 homes flooded in all of Harris County. It also indicates that 380 of those bordered Perry Homes’ Woodridge Village development across the county line in Montgomery County.

That’s a whopping 91.5% of all flooded homes in the most populous county in the State. And the third most populous in the nation.

Report Cites Sheet Flow from Woodridge Village as Potential Cause

The heaviest rain that day fell on northeast Harris and southeast Montgomery Counties. However, the report also cited “large volumes of sheet flow” from Woodridge Village as the potential cause of flooding for those bordering the development. A jury in Harris County will decide the cause in two months.

At the time, Perry Homes’ contractors had clearcut virtually the entire 268-acre development but had only completed about 7% of the detention ponds.

High-water rescues in progress the night of May 7, 2019, on Shady Maple in Elm Grove Village, Kingwood. About one block south of Woodridge Village.

For official reports on this and other storms, see the Reports Page of this website. Click on the Major Storms tab.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/8/2020

983 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 367 Days after the May 7th Storm

Possible Street Flooding Today

Jeff Lindner, Director of Hydrologic Operations and Division Meterologist for Harris County Flood Control, just issued this warning”

“Multiple rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and some severe weather likely today into tonight.”

“Large cluster of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall extends from near Sealy to College Station and is moving eastward and will overspread much of the region N of I-10 over the next several hours. A second…powerful…bow echo with 70-80mph is rapidly approaching Corpus Christi and the coastal bend and may impact the Matagorda Bay area later this morning.”

“Active pattern will remain in place as several disturbances and a weak cold front move across the area today and tonight and into Saturday. Rounds of thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall and isolated severe weather. Main severe threats today will be mainly west of I-45 and some of the storms this morning over south-central TX have shown some weak rotation.”

“Expect the current round of storms to move across the area between now and 1-2pm followed by a brief break and then another…potentially stronger round this evening into the overnight period.”

“Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible today into early Saturday with isolated higher totals. In fact some of the higher resolution models are showing isolated amounts up to 4-5 inches under training bands today and tonight. Air mass is certainly moist and will be able to support some 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates which will lead to street flooding.”

River Forecast 

“Area rivers are responding to the recent heavy rainfall and will remain elevated and in flood (Trinity). Additional rains today and tonight and then again next week will only increase rises. The area river and hydro situation is starting to become worrisome given the potential for this pattern to maintain for the next 1-2 weeks.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on April 3, 2019

612 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flash Flood Watch Issued from 6 a.m. Wednesday to Noon Thursday

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a Flash Flood Watch for a large portion of southeast Texas…including Harris, Madison, Montgomery, Liberty, San Jacinto, Walker, Waller and Washington Counties. From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

Last week’s flood has not fully receded and another one is on the way with comparable amounts of rainfall.

Flash flooding and flooding will be possible Wednesday into Thursday. A band of heavy rainfall may form Wednesday morning from College Station to Crockett and heavy rainfall may continue to occur through the day. Gulf moisture will also move into the area and cause additional rainfall mainly east of I-45.

Southeast Texas has already had rainfall the last seven days which will cause any additional rainfall to runoff. Isolated thunderstorms may cause brief heavy rainfall of 1 inch an hour. Overall areas in the watch may get 2 to 3 inches of rainfall with isolated bands of 4 inches.

Potential Flood Impacts

In urban areas, street flooding and flooding of underpasses and typical low lying areas can be be expected. Bayous and creeks may have rapid rises and could reach out of banks. Rural low lying areas, low water crossings and poor drainage areas may flood. Rises on area rivers can be expected and this could extend river flooding that is on going.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Additional Guidance from Harris County Flood Control

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control’s meteorologist added this:

Widespread rainfall…some heavy…will lead to rises on area watersheds and potentially some flooding of creeks and rivers.

Upper level storm system is digging into the SW US and will impact the state for the next 24-36 hours.

As moisture increases from the SSW this evening, light rain and showers will develop and spread NNE into the area. A secondary front from roughly Lake Livingston to Columbus will likely remain stationary and be the focus for rainfall production tonight into early Wednesday in that region. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop by midday along the coast and inland south of the stalled inland front…this rainfall will likely become heavier in nature and slightly more convective with potentially higher rainfall rates. Upper level system will move across the area early Thursday with rains continuing before dry WNW winds sweep across the area in the afternoon ending rainfall.

Rainfall Amounts 

Widespread rainfall of 2-3 inches looks likely over much of the area with isolated totals of 4-5 inches. Some fairly decent agreement in the models today with respect to two rainfall maximums over the area…the first over our NW/N counties tonight in Wednesday and then a second Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning from Houston ENE toward Liberty and then NE toward Lake Livingston. WPC has expended the slight risk of excessive rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance to include a larger part of SE TX. Think maximum hourly rainfall rates will be on the order of .5 to 1.25 inches which most urban areas will be able to handle. Overall fairly long duration of rainfall over a fairly large area will lead to significant amounts of run-off especially into area river systems as well as the creeks in northern Harris County.

Flash Flood Guidance

Flash Flood Guidance for the area is between 3.0-4.4 inches for 6-hrs which seems high and a review of soil saturation levels via the NASA SPORT webpage shows saturation levels of 65-70% over much of the area…or you can walk in the yard and quickly tell that the ground is still very wet from the rainfall on Sunday. Think much of what falls is going to run-off given how wet the ground is and widespread amounts of dormant vegetation.

Several watersheds are still high from the rainfall last Thursday and rainfall of this magnitude will likely result in renewed rises on nearly all watersheds. Main concern will be the Trinity and San Jacinto basins, along with the Navasota and Brazos. In Harris County, significant rises on Spring, Cypress, Little Cypress, Willow, Cedar, and the creeks that feed into Addicks and Barker Reservoirs are likely. Will also include lower Greens (east of US 59) and Halls, Hunting. Some of these watersheds may rise to levels that would impact low lying areas and roadways near the creek or bayou.

Flooding Probable on East and West Forks

Flooding on both the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto River (low lands and streets) certainly looks probable. At this time the threat for significant creek and bayou flooding as well as any flooding of structures is low.

Current thinking is that watersheds will see similar responses to last Thursday morning…although a few may see higher levels since they will be starting at higher current flows versus last Thursday.  

Think hourly rainfall rates will be low enough to prevent widespread street flooding, but street flooding in areas of poor drainage and in rural areas where roadside ditches or small creeks spill onto the roadway will be possible.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/1/2019

480 Days Since Hurricane Harvey