Forecasters Predict a Slightly Above Average Hurricane Season for 2018

By Diane Cooper, Kingwood resident with 20+ years’ experience in weather and river forecasting for the National Weather Service

Colorado State University (CSU) released its initial 2018 Hurricane Outlook on April 5. It indicates an Above Normal Hurricane Season.

They predict:

  • 14 named storms
  • 7 hurricanes
  • 3 major hurricanes

The average number of tropical storms per year from 1981-2010:

  • 12 named storms
  • 6 hurricanes
  • 3 major hurricanes
Outlooks: Between Historical Averages and Near-Term Forecasts

Note: CSU outlooks are not near-term forecasts. Neither are they historical averages; that’s climate. Outlooks describe the probability of how any one season will likely vary from the average. To do that, scientists track numerous oscillations in the earth’s atmosphere and oceans. Historically, the high and low points of these oscillations have correlated highly with the presence or absence of hurricane formation. (For details about the Colorado State University Outlook, see their technical paper.

Key Factors Considered in This Hurricane Outlook

CSU indicates that Pacific and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were key factors in formulating their early 2018 outlook.

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast the “ENSO phase.” (ENSO refers to El Niño/Southern Oscillation, which has three phases: El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña.)

Both groups predict that the current weak La Niña will transition to an ENSO-neutral phase during this spring or early summer. However, they do not anticipate a significant El Niño for this summer or fall. (Note: ENSO models tend to be more accurate from June to December than from February to May. So, a March outlook contains more uncertainty.) For more information about the ENSO forecasts, see the International Research Institute (IRI) ENSO Forecast.

Neutral Conditions in Pacific Favor Hurricane Development in Atlantic

El Niño conditions in the Pacific (above-average SSTs that are tracked over a 3-month period)  typically increase wind shear in the Caribbean and Atlantic. That reduces the chances of hurricanes fully organizing and strengthening, however we can still experience tropical systems and hurricanes with El Niño conditions.

Neutral ENSO conditions, on the other hand,  allow for normal wind shear patterns over the areas in the Atlantic Ocean where tropical development tends to occur.  Decreased wind shear provides a more favorable environment for Atlantic hurricane development.

Atlantic Sea Temps Now Vary, Causing Uncertainty

Currently, the western tropical Atlantic Ocean is very warm, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are cool. Thus, forecasters have difficulty predicting how warm waters will become during the peak Atlantic hurricane season. Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 through November 30th, but the peak is mid-August through mid-October.

The main area where forecasters study Atlantic SSTs is called the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR). The MDR includes the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea between 9.5°N and 21.5°N latitude.

For more information about factors influencing hurricane outlooks and ENSO states, see What Influences the Long-Range Weather Outlooks.

Difference Between Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

Sustained wind speeds determine the classification of a tropical system.

  • Tropical Depression – 38 mph or less
  • Tropical Storm – 39 mph to 73 mph.
  • Hurricane – 74 mph and higher.
  • Major Hurricane – 111 mph and higher. These are Category 3, 4 or 5 storms that have significant impacts, especially if the center of the storm comes ashore.

This video shows types of damage to expect as wind speeds increase.

Why Hurricane Outlooks Matter

Serious damage can occur in any storm. However, a slightly above normal outlook increases the odds that a tropical system will reach the U.S. coast. That’s simply because we expect to have more storms. More storms increase chances that one will come ashore near us.

Be Prepared, Not Sorry

Despite the outlook for an above normal season, the U.S. and Texas may see no direct hit from a tropical system. Outlooks say nothing about where topical systems will make landfall.

However, multiple storms could strike the Texas coast, as they did in 2008, when the CSU team predicted a “well above average” hurricane season. Texas took four direct hits between July 23 and September 8. The eye of Hurricane Ike passed right over Kingwood, knocking out power for approximately two weeks. Ike was one of the most destructive hurricanes ever to hit Texas and one of the deadliest. It caused $19.3 billion in damages and killed 84 people.

Typical Hurricane Ike wind damage in Kingwood, TX, in 2008. Ike moved quickly and caused more wind than water damage in Kingwood. The opposite was true near the coast where a 22-foot storm surge wiped out thousands of homes on the Bolivar Peninsula.

The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st, so start preparing now. In my next post, I’ll talk about how to prepare for a hurricane.

In the meantime, also remember that it does not take a tropical system to produce significant rainfall in southeast Texas. The 2015 Memorial Day flood and the 2016 Tax Day Floods are recent examples of 500+ year floods not connected to a tropical system. We should always be prepared for potential flooding in this area.

Posted April 10, 2018, 224 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative Announces Cambio to Speak At Next Meeting

Please mark your calendars. Attend the next meeting of the Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative from 6:30 to 8:00 p.m., April 17 at the Kingwood Community Center.

Featured Speaker: SJRA Board Member Kaaren Cambio 

Kaaren Cambio, one of Kingwood’s two new representatives on the San Jacinto River Authority Board, will update residents on the SJRA’s new role in flood prevention. Additionally, she will update us on many significant flood prevention developments since the group’s last meeting.

About the Lake Houston Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative

The Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative consists of local residents dedicated to preventing future flooding in the Lake Houston Area.  The Group aims to provide a voice for the concerns of residents. It also seeks to identify flood risks and their solutions, and to work closely with local, state and federal officials in addressing them.

All residents – flooded or not – are welcome to attend. The issues we seek to address affect the safety and economic vitality of the entire community.

Key goals of the Group include:

  • Installing additional flood gates at Lake Houston to increase release capacity
  • Dredging the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River and Lake Houston
  • Controlling sand mining activities on both forks of the San Jacinto River to reduce sand build up
  • Ensuring any bond proposed by the Harris County Commissioners includes dredging of the West and East forks of the San Jacinto River
  • Changing priorities and procedures of the San Jacinto River Authority to protect residents downstream from Lake Conroe
  • Supporting our elected representatives by maintaining awareness and involvement.

 Join the Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative

To join the group’s distribution list, please email Bill Fowler at txwil43@yahoo.com. Also, please feel free to email questions or comments directly to Bill or through this website.

On a final note, this website will be a repository for information related to the group’s efforts to prevent future flooding. Please bookmark the site and visit it regularly to get the most up-to-date news on flood prevention developments.

Posted April 7, 2018, 221 Days since Hurricane Harvey.

Greater Houston Flood Mitigation Consortium Issues Recommendations for San Jacinto Watershed

WhataBurger in the new HEB shopping center during flooding from Hurricane Harvey. Photo: Courtesy of John Knoerzer.

The Greater Houston Flood Mitigation Consortium issued a region-wide 64-page report on April 5, 2018. It begins with a discussion of the pros and cons of various flood mitigation strategies in general. Then it looks at strategies that apply to each watershed within the region and the equity of funding for each watershed.

The San Jacinto watershed, they say, contains 3% of the region’s population, gets 0% of the budget, and had 14% of the region’s damages.

The Consortium’s discussion of recommendations for the San Jacinto watershed begins on page 48 and continues on page 49. Because the complete report is more than a 130 megabyte download, I quote their recommendations  for us below:

  • In-depth engineering studies and science-based hydrologic and ecological assessments to determine the cost, benefits and risks associated with the following proposed flood mitigation strategies:
    • Making structural alterations to Lake Houston dam and spillway
    • Dredging along the San Jacinto River and in Lake Houston
    • Construction of a Montgomery County reservoir system / fourth reservoir
  • Stricter regulation of sand mining operations, acquisition and complete restoration of land associated with past sand mining operations. Enact stricter state regulations and enforce penalties to shut down illegal mine operations that do not have required permits; strict enforcement of existing rules; require full restoration and/or create an in lieu fee program to finance restoration of closed and abandoned sand mining sites.
  • Stricter development regulations for the watersheds in the San Jacinto River Basin
  • Outreach to stakeholders and communities in the San Jacinto River Basin to increase awareness and facilitate greater transparency in reservoir operation and management and development of flood mitigation strategies.
  • Increased deployment of green infrastructure strategies including conservation easements, land acquisition and LID as population growth and development continues at a rapid pace. Creation of a regional LID guidelines template for use by local and county governments and LID performance criteria needed.
  • Create a San Jacinto River Community Advisory Council that meets regularly with public operators and functions similarly to community advisory councils in Houston Ship Channel industrial communities.
  • Stricter floodplain development regulations extending beyond the 500-year floodplain based on Atlas14 rainfall estimates

The entire report is a good read. It’s well designed and filled with helpful illustrations. People seriously interested in flood mitigation should download and read the whole survey. It’s extremely thoughtful and balanced.

Here is the Houston Chronicle’s take on the Greater Houston Flood Mitigation Consortium’s report.

Posted April 6, 2018, 219 Days After Hurricane Harvey.

Five inches of rain helped create the third largest flood in 16 years and sand downstream made it worse

Note: We modified this post to reflect feedback from Harris County Flood Control District and the San Jacinto River Authority. HCFCD provided new information showing rainfall totals far upstream. Confusion over the main point of this article also led us to clarify that rain was a contributing factor to the flood, but not the sole cause. 

The flood on the East Fork of the San Jacinto last weekend (3/31/2018) crested at 66.1 ft. in New Caney.  This was the 10th highest historical crest in the last 35 years – after a relatively minor rainfall event – 4.33 inches as measured on Caney Creek at 2090. That’s the only rain gage operated by the San Jacinto River Authority on the East Fork. Last weekend’s flood was also the third highest in the last 16 years on the East Fork. In fairness, it rained more upstream than at the gauge. HCFCD provided this rainfall map  to show the distribution and said that rainfall averaged five inches across the watershed.

The East Fork: The Forgotten Flooding Problem

With the bulk of Kingwood’s and Humble’s population living on the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, it’s easy to forget that we have a flooding problem on the East Fork as well. The “East Fork” also includes Peach Creek and Caney Creek watersheds as well as Luce Bayou. And there is no shortage of sand coming down the East Fork from the sand mine on Caney Creek. This sand exacerbates flooding problems in the Kingwood and Huffman areas.

Where Did All The Sand Come From?

The sand mine on Caney Creek in Porter upstream of Kingwood comprises approximately 600 acres. The area where they stockpile sand for shipment comprises approximately 34 acres. The image below, taken on 9/14/17 shows how high the sand stockpile is relative to the height of surrounding trees.

Sand mine in Porter in Montgomery County next to Caney Creek. Water tower in background is at Kingwood Drive and High Valley. The mine is just upstream from East End Park in Kingwood where approximately 30 acres were covered with dunes up to ten feet tall after Harvey.

The next image shows what happened to this stockpile during Harvey. At the top right, you can see how torrential rains eroded the pile. They washed sand down to the bottom left where floodwaters carried it downstream. Note the erosion patterns in the flat area to the left (closest to Caney Creek).

Sand mine in Porter in Montgomery County next to Caney Creek shows signs of massive erosion after Hurricane Harvey. Picture taken on 9/14/18.

Just downstream from this sand mine, one can see sand in the tree tops. It appeared there suddenly after Harvey. The sand in the trees reaches an estimated 20 feet. The giant new sand dune in the river reaches an estimated 15 feet.

Confluence of the east fork of the San Jacinto (background) with Peach and Caney Creeks (foreground). Notice sand deposited by Hurricane Harvey stretching into the tree tops and blocking half the river.

Approximately 30 acres of East End Park, in the background to the right, also flooded with sand. At Eagle Point in the Park, sand dunes exceeded 10 feet and covered approximately a half mile of trails with sand that reached shoulder height at times.

Harvey washed sand downstream from mines in Porter in Montgomery County. After the storm, new dunes up to ten feet high covered 30 acres of Kingwood’s East End Park on the East fork of the San Jacinto River and obliterated trails like this one.

Historical Satellite Images Show Increase in Sand Volume

Some people ask, “Could the sand have come from the creek itself?” Fair question. These historical satellite images help answer it. The first satellite image of this area dates to 4/28/2014. At that point, the mine largely constrained the sand within its perimeter. You see only several small white dunes between it and East End Park, outlined in red.

In January of 2017 before Harvey, Caney Creek (see below) still contained relatively little sand. So far, so good.

After Harvey, in October, 2017, we see a radical change in the volume of sand downstream from the mine. Images taken from the helicopter and from the ground (far above) show the depth of these sand dunes. They appeared immediately after Harvey. In real life, the little white streaks in the creek stretch hundreds of feet and reach tree top height. Moreover, both ground level and helicopter photos show that much sand was hidden from satellite view by the tree canopy.

Effect of Siltation on Caney Creek and East Fork

One question remains – the most important one! How has all this sand affected the flow of Caney Creek and the East Fork? The answer: much like the sand on the West Fork has.

Smaller rains have produced bigger floods because the carrying capacity of the river has been reduced.

How You Can Help

Please contact all Harris County commissioners and the county judge. Their email addresses are on the Links page. Ask them to make sure they have enough money in the upcoming bond election to dredge BOTH the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto. Currently, they are only contemplating dredging the West Fork between US59 and West Lake Houston Parkway.

Bill Fowler, co-chair of the Kingwood Grass-Roots Flood Initiative found these statistics. Our thanks to Bill.

Posted on 4/3/18, 217 days since Hurricane Harvey.

Revised 4/10/18, 224 days since Hurricane Harvey.

Impact of March 28/29 Rain and Lower Lake Level on Kingwood

Beginning March 27, 2018, the City of Houston lowered the level of Lake Houston in anticipation of flash flooding. The storm hit Kingwood in the afternoon of the 28th and was over by the morning of the 29th According to Harris County Flood Control rain gages, we received 2.64 inches of rain at the Kingwood Country Club and 3.36 inches at the US59 bridge. Areas upstream received as much as 5.5 inches. An average across the watershed was close to 4.

Thank you, Dave Martin and Sylvester Turner!

Mayor Sylvester Turner and Council Member Dave Martin should be congratulated on their decision to lower Lake Houston. Some low-lying areas like River Grove Park flooded. However, as of this writing, I’m not aware of any homes that flooded. Surely there would have been major property damage, given all the siltation from Hurricane Harvey, had the lake been at its normal level.

How the rain affected different parts of Kingwood

The underpass at the 59 bridge was closed due to high water early in the morning on the 29th.  This is a perennial choke point. It has gotten worse since Harvey.

At Scenic Shores in Kings Point, the river was well within its banks thanks to the decision to lower the lake.

How much was it lowered? 2.5 feet according to the Coastal Water Authority.

Below is a photo taken last night in Kingwood Greens. It shows vast expanses of sand before the rain started. There were no reports of flooding in Kingwood Greens today, again, thanks in large part to the decision to lower the lake before the storm.

In Kings Lake Estates on the south side of the San Jacinto River, across from Kingwood Greens, the water got close. A resident sent this pic.

The homeowner above stated, “I am literally stunned how high the water is at my property right now even though the lake level was extremely low only 24 hours ago….and only after a modest rain storm last night.” To underscore the need to begin dredging immediately, he added, “This has NEVER happened before with such a minor rain event!”

Worst Flooding At River Grove Park

River Grove still has that massive sand bar blocking the drainage ditch. Water backed up behind that and flooded the park – for the second time within a month! See four images below.

As of 2:30 PM on March 29th, the disc golf course, playing fields, boat dock area and boardwalk at River Grove were totally under water. Additionally, about a third of the parking lot was under water and the flood level was continuing to rise.

All in all though, we lucked out with this storm largely because of the decision to lower the lake. Without that, flooding would have been much worse.

Anxiously Awaiting Dredging

Yesterday, the county approved money to begin dredging this area. Hopefully that will help cure the flooding woes at River Grove and give us a great margin of safety elsewhere.

As bad as these pictures look, about three weeks ago, on one-fifth the amount of rain that we received last night, the flooding was far worse. Before Harvey and the giant sand blockage at the base of the drainage ditch, River Grove could take twice as much rain without this much flooding.

As the resident who owned the gazebo above said, “With no major dredging, Kingwood residents better start praying every single day that we don’t get a tropical storm or even minor hurricane. We need dredging SOON!”

Posted by Bob Rehak on March 29, 2018

212 days since Hurricane Harvey

Clarification from District E on Lake Level Adjustment

On March 27, 2018, Houston City Council Member Dave Martin’s office issued a press release about an adjustment to the level of Lake Houston that would reduce the likelihood of flooding. Today, March 28, 2018, this office released this clarification on how much the level would be lowered and for how long.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
March 28, 2018
Contact: Jessica Beemer (832) 393-3008
Clarification: Temporary Reduction to the Level of Lake Houston
Houston, TX – To clarify a press release that went out yesterday regarding the reduction of Lake Houston, the level of the Lake is temporarily being reduced for seasonal rain events until the river, lake, and interior channels can be dredged. Harris County has approved the request for qualifications for engineering and environmental permitting to support the dredging of the West Fork of the San Jacinto River.
Once the lake is lowered to 40 feet it is the City of Houston’s plan to adjust the spillway gates to maintain a level of 40 feet temporarily moving forward this rainy and hurricane season. The lake is currently releasing 7,600 cubic feet per second, and the elevation is 40.52 feet. No major changes in policy have been made. This temporary reduction addresses the immediate concerns of the Lake Houston Community, including Kingwood, Humble, Atascocita, and Huffman.
This lower lake level will continue to be observed while the City works with area partners to address siltation and other coordination efforts with Lake Conroe. The City of Houston will continue to monitor and evaluate water demand, weather patterns and other mitigation activities.
In the event, the City of Houston has a need for additional water, the City has the ability through existing water rights to call water from Lake Conroe and Lake Livingston to meet high demand. For more information, please contact the District E office at (832) 393-3008 or via email at districte@houstontx.gov.
-End-
One day after the City started lowering the level of Lake Houston, this is what the West Fork looked like. Below is a photo taken in Kingwood Greens courtesy of Dianne Lansden looking toward the south shore of the river. The two foot reduction in lake level revealed just how much the capacity of the West Fork has been reduced by sand deposits.
Posted 211 days after Hurricane Harvey

Level of Lake Houston Being Lowered and Other Flooding Updates

Today, District E Houston City Council Member Dave Martin, who has been working tirelessly on flood issues since Hurricane Harvey, issued the following press release. It announces the lowering of Lake Houston on a long-term basis which should help reduce the danger of flooding by giving the watershed more capacity to absorb heavy rains. This is welcome news, especially as hurricane season approaches.

The full text of the press release follows. It contains updates on other related issues including a vote on dredging today in Harris County commissioner’s court. Note the comment about the extent of dredging. The program they are considering stops at West Lake Houston Parkway. That will probably not be welcome news for people in Kingwood Greens, Town Center, Kings Harbor, Fosters Mill and Kings Point. Hopefully, this is just the start of a more extensive dredging program. 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
March 27, 2018
Contact: Jessica Beemer (832) 393-3008
Effective Immediately the Level of Lake Houston is Being Reduced
Houston, TX – Houston City Council Member Dave Martin would like to announce that after a meeting held yesterday with Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, the daily pooling level of Lake Houston will be reduced from 42.5 feet to 40 feet, effective immediately. Last night, Houston Public Works Director, Carol Haddock, directed the Coastal Water Authority to start lowering the level of Lake Houston in advance of Wednesday’s predicted storms. Council Member Martin has confirmed that all gates at Lake Houston are open and the level of Lake Houston is anticipated to reach the desired 40 foot mark by Wednesday evening.
Once the lake is lowered to 40 feet it is the City of Houston’s plan to adjust the spillway gates to maintain a level of 40 feet moving forward on a long-term basis. This will address the immediate concerns of the Lake Houston Community, including Kingwood, Humble, Atascocita, and Huffman. This lower lake level will continue to be observed while the City works with area partners to address siltation and other coordination efforts with Lake Conroe. The City of Houston will continue to monitor and evaluate water demand, weather patterns and other mitigation activities.
This morning, Harris County Commissioner’s Court will vote to authorize requests for qualifications (RFQ) for engineering and other services to identify watershed-wide flood risks, evaluate food mitigation strategies that address those risks and develop recommendations to enhance the flood warning system and action plans used by the emergency managers in the San Jacinto River Basin from its headwaters in Lake Houston across Harris County Precincts 1, 2, and 4. Harris County will be working with the San Jacinto River Authority as well as other municipalities to accomplish this task which was a part of Governor Greg Abbott’s charges for the region.
Additionally, Harris County will also be requesting authorization for RFQs for engineering, environmental permitting, and other services in support of dredging the West Fork of the San Jacinto River from IH-59 to Lake Houston Parkway. This was another of Governor Abbott’s charges during his visit to the Kingwood Area. All parties are committed to working together to swiftly move the dredging project forward in preparation for this year’s hurricane season.
Council Member Martin has been working diligently over the last few weeks to make sure the efforts of dredging are not short lived. The visit of Texas Land Commissioner, George P. Bush, and continued communication with the Governor’s office have allowed us to partner with the Aggregate Production Operators (APO) and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The continued interest and participation of statewide leaders helps local efforts by assisting us in identifying red tape and providing solutions to these obstacles. Next Tuesday, April 3, we anticipate a visit from Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick who has expressed an interest in touring the San Jacinto Watershed by air and water.
These state partnerships allow us the opportunity to closely evaluate existing regulations for sand mining as well as the ability to increase the strength of these existing policies. The regional APOs have stepped up to the table and want to be a part of the solution. Texas Senator Brandon Creighton and Texas State Representative Dan Huberty continue to be champions for stricter sand mining regulations to protect our watershed.
The problem of flooding within the San Jacinto Watershed is a difficult one to tackle due to the size of the watershed and many jurisdictions involved but Council Member Martin is creating relationships where none have existed before and knows that working together will get us further along the path to a long term solution.
For more information, please contact the District E office at (832) 393-3008 or via email at districte@houstontx.gov.
Posted 210 days after Hurricane Harvey.

SJRA now includes flood control in its mission

The GOLDEN HAMMER, a Montgomery county web-based news source, reports that the San Jacimto River Authority (SJRA) has officially added flood control to its mission.  The move comes in response to a directive by Governor Abbott to consider ways to protect downstream residents from flooding. This is good news for flood-wary Kingwood residents. It comes just weeks after the governor appointed two Kingwood residents, Kaaren Cambio and Mark Micheletti to the SJRA board.

These are two good first steps in response to the public outcry after Harvey. We now need to turn attention and awareness into action.

Posted 207 days after Hurricane Harvey.

How Deep was the Sand Deposited by Harvey at River Grove Park?

These two shots tell the story. Over the road between the boardwalk and playground, the sand was 3-4 feet. The picnic tables had 2 feet of sand over their tops! Workers estimate the average depth at the south end of the park was 4 to 5 feet!

The photo immediately below shows the One Way Sign near the boat area. The boat ramp is to the left and the road to the right. If you look at the sign you can see the sand is undisturbed under it and beyond it to the Boardwalk.
The cost to remove all this sand? $140,000 according to KSA president Dee Price.

The water in the foreground in the next shot is NOT the river; it is the outflow from the drainage ditch. A giant sand bar now entirely closes off the boat ramp. This shot was taken from the parking lot. The dune is an estimated 15 feet tall. Notice how you cannot see the river which is on the other side. You can only see the tree tops!