Update: Lake Conroe Holding Steady, Lake Houston Rising, East Fork Expected to Rise 10 Feet in Next 24 Hours

Last night’s storms in the Houston area did not drop as much rain as the previous night. As a result, the SJRA is holding the level of Lake Conroe steady by releasing 9270 cubic feet per second.

Level of Lake Conroe as of 9 a.m. 5/2/21, down from 203.07 last night.

However, the level of Lake Houston has risen from 42.85 last evening to 43.46 this morning. That’s a rise of .61 feet or 7.32 inches overnight. And it could get worse as more water works its way down the East Fork, Spring Creek and Cypress Creek.

From Coastal Water Authority as of 8:30 am., Sunday, May 2, 2021. Up .61 feet since last night. Data updated hourly.

To Get Whole Picture, Look Upstream in All Directions

Flooding upstream affects the level of Lake Houston. For instance, tributaries of Spring and Cypress Creeks have been flooding. So has Caney Creek. And the East Fork San Jacinto River is expected to crest above flood stage later today. This map from Harris County Flood Warning System shows the problem areas where people need to remain alert.

Observe the concentration of warning signs upstream from Lake Houston. They mean streams near or above flood stage.

For instance, look at this.

The hydrographic for the San Jacinto East Fork near FM2090 shows the river could rise 10 feet in the next 24 hours!

National Weather Service
The National Weather Service predicts moderate flooding on the East Fork near New Caney. We are at the stage where people close to the river need to take action.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “The East Fork is rising quickly this morning and will exceed flood stage this afternoon and rise to moderate flood levels late tonight into early Monday. At the current forecast levels widespread low land flooding is expected downstream of the gages at both Plum Grove and FM 1485 (New Caney). At the forecasted levels FM 1485 is likely to be inundated with water west of the bridge crossing and become impassable. The river is forecast to fall below flood stage Wednesday or Thursday.

Hydrograph for the San Jacinto West Fork as of 10:45AM, 5/2/21.

About the West Fork San Jacinto, Lindner says, “The river is rising this morning mainly from inflow from both Spring and Lake Creeks. The river is forecasted to rise to near flood stage early Monday and hold around flood stage for a couple of days before falling around mid week.” Starting early Monday, Lindner expects minor low land flooding near the rise with possible impacts to roads on the north side of the river and east of US 59 as well as the US 59 turn-arounds.

Remain Cautious

Put it all together and the message is “Caution,” especially if you live near one of those gages colored red or yellow. But at this time, authorities have predicted no widespread flooding in the Lake Houston Area.

The SJRA posted a situational update for Lake Conroe as of 9 a.m. on Sunday morning, May 2, 2021. The SJRA notice says: “Water level at Lake Conroe is beginning to decrease.  With no additional rain in the forecast today, SJRA and MoCo Constable Precinct 1 will continue to monitor lake level and open Lake Conroe as soon as it is safe to do so. Reservoir releases are holding steady and not expected to increase. The Constable’s office urges boaters to tie up their vessels to assist with boating safety. If you find your boat is missing, contact the Sheriff’s office non-emergency line 936-760-5800.  We will provide another update Sunday afternoon. Real time lake conditions available below.”

The SJRA closed Lake Conroe to boaters Saturday, when the lake rose two feet overnight from Friday.

How Close Was It?

These pictures taken by a Lake Conroe resident on Sunday morning show what a close call some residents there had.

Picture taken Sunday, 5/2/21 at approximately 9:30 am. near the Walden boat ramp.

In reference to the fact that SJRA had lowered the lake one foot in April as part of its seasonal policy, the resident who took these pictures said…

“Think what an extra foot would have done to that homeowner.”

Lake Conroe resident

That extra foot gave the homeowner the buffer needed to avoid flooding.

Walden boat ramp on 5/2/21 at approximately 9:30 am. “Not usable really,” said the boater/photographer. “Water is just too high.”

Rainfall Totals for Last Two Waves of Thunderstorms

This rainfall map from the Harris County Flood Warning System shows the 9-day totals for all gages in the Houston region. The 9-days include the storm that wiped out the 1-foot buffer that the SJRA created when it lowered Lake Conroe beginning in April. Note how the northwest portion of the region received the most rain…two to four times the amounts shown on Lake Houston Area gages.

Nine day rainfall totals include the amount of rain received since Lake Conroe was at 200 feet (one foot below its normal target level during the seasonal lowering).

As wet as it has been for the last several days, we lucked out compared to our neighbors to the northwest.

The sun is shining. At least for now. More thunderstorms predicted for Tuesday. I’m going out NOW to take my dog for a slosh. While I can.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/2/21 at 10am based on info provided by SJRA, HCFCD, Coastal Water Authority, NWS and Lake Conroe residents

1342 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lake Conroe Keeps Rising Despite Increasing Discharges by SJRA

In the last two weeks heavy rains have slammed the areas upstream from Lake Conroe leading to steady rises in the lake level. Had the lake not been lowered earlier, neighborhoods could be flooding now. Streets in several places are already cut off.

As of 7:30 pm Saturday night, 5/1/2021

More Than Three Foot Increase Above Lowered Level

The rain a week ago erased the one-foot seasonal lowering that SJRA started on April 1. Then yesterday’s rains increased the lake more than 2 feet above its normal level of 201 – despite increasing discharges by the SJRA. The lake is now threatening lakeside homes and businesses as you can see from the photos below.

If you’ve watched the dashboard at SJRA.net, the SJRA started discharging 450 cubic feet per second (CFS) before the most recent round of storms. Now the discharge rate has increased to 9275 CFS, which is close to the max rate that the antiquated flood gates on Lake Houston can handle. But even at 9275 CFS, Lake Conroe continued to rise this afternoon.

So did Lake Houston, despite the fact that the Coastal Water Authority has been trying to lower the lake a full foot for several days now.

As of 5:30PM Saturday.

Water Coming from Other Sources, Too

However, in addition to the water from Lake Conroe, Lake Houston is also picking up water from other sources, a number of which are in danger of coming out of their banks.

Status of streams as of 4:15PM on 5/1/2021 according to the Harris County Flood Warning System.

Yellow triangles indicate a stream could come out of its banks. Red exclamation points mean flooding is likely.

This is precisely the scenario that the SJRA designed its lake lowering policy to prevent – an ugly choice between flooding people upstream or downstream.

But the Lake Conroe Association has fought the lowering for the last two years both in a court of law and the court of public opinion. The Association mounted an expensive campaign including billboards, lawsuits, and a legislative offensive against the SJRA. Now, the rapid rise in lake levels may undermine LCA’s support; it certainly undercuts their arguments against seasonal lake lowering.

Water Creeping Closer to Homes and Businesses around Lake Conroe

A Lake Conroe resident who wishes to remain anonymous took the pictures below this afternoon. They show docks underwater, the lake invading shorelines, streets cut off, and homes and businesses being threatened by rising waters.

The docks at Papas on Lake Conroe are underwater.
Water is creeping closer to the Villas at Margaritaville.
This resident said water from the rising lake levels was keeping water from draining into the lake and backing it up into streets.
Docks in front of Monty’s Light House and Fajita Jacks. Those boats are in their slips. The docks are under water.

The marinas on 105 are closed for two reasons. First, the lake is closed to boat traffic because of dangerous conditions. Second, the water is high enough that you can’t get trailers in deep enough, according to one resident. The Walden marina looked like the one above, he said.

One More Round of Thunderstorms Tonight

Expect one more round of storms tonight. National Weather Service radar shows them already sweeping into the Lake Conroe area. They aren’t predicted to dump large amounts of rain, but they will put additional pressure on the homes and businesses around the lake, especially as runoff from previous storms continues to work its way to the lake.

The East Fork in southeast Montgomery County remains under a Flash Flood WARNING, especially areas around Caney and Peach Creeks.

Caney Creek gage at FM2090 as of this afternoon.

And virtually the entire region remains under a flash flood watch through tomorrow morning. A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is very dangerous. You should monitor forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

From National Weather Service on 5/1/21

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/1/2021 based on information from Lake Conroe residents and the NWS

1341 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Two More Rounds of Heavy Rain Yet to Come; Flash Flood Watch Extended Through Sunday

Heavy rainfall remains possible through Sunday

Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until Sunday morning for much of the area.

Widespread heavy rainfall along and north of I-10 over the last 24 hours has resulted in rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches over much of that area. Pockets have received 4-5 inches. Those include northern Waller and western Montgomery Counties. Portions of Walker County received 4-6 inches.

Last 24 hours of rainfall as shown on Harris County Flood Warning System at 7pm 4.30.21.

Ongoing flooding through much of today closed several roads in low lying areas of northern Waller and Walker Counties. Run-off continues to progress down creeks and into mainstem rivers. Rises will continue along upper Spring Creek into tonight and Saturday. However, at the moment forecasters expect no significant flooding. See attached graphics for 24-hr rainfall totals and current channel status.

First Round Kicks Off Overnight

NWS satellite imagery shows moisture streaming up out of Mexico as of 7PM Friday. The area along the middle Texas coast from the coastal bend up to to about Wharton looks favorable for the formation of another round of heavy to excessive rainfall late tonight and early tomorrow. Models indicate this activity will occur mostly west of I-45 and south of I-10 into Saturday morning before it begins to weaken. Exactly how far northeast rain and heavy rain may spread is still in question. But according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, “The latest thinking indicates it will remain southwest of the areas hard hit today.”

Second Round of Storms Saturday Night into Sunday

Lindner predicts a weakening of the storm Saturday afternoon. But he warns to expect numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. He says they will invade the region from the southwest to northeast. Moisture levels will support heavy to excessive rainfall rates within any organized thunderstorms.

Rainfall Amounts

Expect additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches over the weekend with isolated totals reaching 4-6 inches…especially around the coastal bend and Matagorda Bay tonight into early Saturday.

Area Soils Now Saturated

I received 3.07 inches in my rain gage today and have standing water in my yard. Soils have become nearly saturated in areas that saw the greatest rainfall today, while areas around Galveston Bay have experienced little rainfall thus far. Heavy run-off in many areas north of I-10 will cause rises in several channels. Keep an eye on the East Fork of the San Jacinto River at FM 1485 into the weekend. The forecast there currently exceeds flood stage.

A good amount of water is routing into the West Fork of the San Jacinto also. But current forecasts keep the river from Conroe to Humble below flood stage. The SJRA is releasing water from Lake Conroe at almost 6000 cubic feet per second. Despite that, the lake level has risen almost a foot and a half today above its normal pool level.

As of 7PM 4/30/2021.

The areas north of the lake received some of the highest rainfall totals this morning. This lake is now 3.5 feet above where it was when the SJRA stopped the seasonal lowering last week. Had they now lowered the lake a foot, it would be even higher now. We can all learn from this experience.

Minor flooding will also be possible this evening along upper Spring Creek west of Hegar Rd with rural low lands near the creek inundated.

Additional rainfall over the weekend may change some of the current forecasts.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/30/21 at 8PM based on info from the NWS and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner

1340 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Heavy Rainfall Potential Tonight, Through Weekend

UPDATED AS OF 10PM THURSDAY – Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, warns that heavy rainfall potential will spread across the region tonight through the weekend.

Rainfall accumulations expected by NWS in next 5 days. Updated at 5:51PM Houston time on 4/29/2021.

National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of Southeast Texas tonight through Sunday morning. However, the risk is slight.

Most of the Houston region has a marginal or slight risk of flash flooding – less than 20%.

Lakes Houston, Conroe Being Lowered

Houston Public Works is currently lowering Lake Houston by 12 inches, from 42.5 feet to 41.5 feet in response to the newly updated forecast – 3 inches of rain in our watershed within 24 hours. Property owners along the lake should secure property along the shoreline. To monitor current water levels at Lake Houston, visit www.coastalwaterauthority.org.

The SJRA had stopped its seasonal release from Lake Conroe. Rains from last weekend pushed the lake back up past its normal full pool level of 201 feet. As of 7pm Thursday, the SJRA had not resumed releasing any water, but by 10pm it had.

Lake Conroe level as of 7pm on 4/29/2021
As of 10pm, SJRA had started releasing 530 cubic feet per second.

To monitor SJRA releases, see the dashboard on their home page.

Inflow from Gulf Will Collide With Stalled Front over SE TX

“A slow-moving, upper-level, low-pressure system over the southwest will combine with a surface front that will move into southeast Texas later today,” says Lindner. He expects the fronts to stall over our area. He says they will produce numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms from late this afternoon into Sunday.

Onshore flow has increased moisture over the region with dewpoints running in the low to mid 70’s. The surface front extends from northeast Texas to near Laredo. It will move slowly into southeast Texas late this afternoon and then likely stall between downtown and the coast by Friday morning. Other disturbances, says Lindner, will ride along this frontal boundary toward the northeast helping to produce several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

With the upper level winds becoming increasing parallel to the stalling surface front and moisture levels remaining high into the weekend, the threat for heavy rainfall will be increasing. Storm motions are expected to slow on Friday, but coverage remains scattered, so some areas could see some decent rainfall while other get little.

Threat Remains Through Sunday

Expect widespread storms to develop on Saturday morning as the threat for cell training increases.

The slow moving upper level low will then move directly across the area on Saturday night into Sunday with additional rounds of thunderstorms…some of these storms could be severe along with more heavy rainfall.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible with isolated totals of 4-5 inches. With all the moisture in place, high rainfall rates could cause street flooding.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Lindner warns potentially higher totals are possible given the overall slow moving nature of the weather pattern.

Increasing Runoff as Grounds Saturate, Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding

The dry ground conditions now in place means soil will absorb much of this rainfall. Regardless, Lindner predicts rises on area creeks and bayous. He says that grounds will begin to saturate over the weekend yielding greater run-off as the storm wears on.

The National Weather Service has all of southeast Texas in a marginal risk for flash flooding starting Friday and into Saturday.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/29/2021 based on information by Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner and the National Weather Service

1339 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Halls Bayou Illustrates Cost, Difficulty of Flood Mitigation in Overdeveloped Areas

Flooding within the Halls Bayou watershed illustrates what happens when development, density, lack of detention and insufficient distance from streams put people and their property in harm’s way. Instead of protecting a strip of green space near the bayou years ago, developers built right up to the edge. As density increased and developers built further upstream without sufficient detention, people who crowded the Bayou then started to flood repeatedly.

As the images below show, once developed, the cost and time of mitigation increases exponentially.

All of that argues for better planning and the protection of green spaces that can accommodate future floods and flood mitigation projects throughout the region.

Halls Bayou Not Unique

This same scenario happened repeatedly in other Houston watersheds: Greens Bayou; Brays Bayou, White Oak Bayou, and Cypress Creek, for instance. But let’s save those for future posts. For now, let’s go back in time.

Solution Well Known for More than a Century

In 1913, recognizing the potential for continued growth, a well-known landscape architect, Arthur Comey created the first comprehensive plan for the Houston Park Commission. He observed that Houston ranked far behind other major U.S. cities in parkland. It had one acre of park for every 685 residents. Seattle was a distant second at 224 residents per acre.

To address this inequity, Comey’s plan included a visionary idea. Noting that the city’s network of bayous were already “natural parks,” he proposed a series of linear and large parks along their lengths.

As he wrote, the “bayous and creek valleys readily lend themselves to trails and parks and cannot so advantageously be used for any other purpose.”…

Unfortunately, developers ignored him.

About Halls Bayou

The Halls Bayou Watershed comprises a city within a city.

  • Older homes and businesses are densely packed.
  • Many are built right up to the edge of the Bayou.
  • 70% of the population is low-to-moderate income.
  • You see far more signs in Spanish than English

Economically, the area looks poor. Culturally, it feels rich.

Frankly, as I drove through it last weekend to photograph flood mitigation projects, it felt much more vibrant than more affluent neighborhoods father to the north or south.

For the most part, people have fixed their homes since the last big flood. These folks may be poor, but the vast majority take great pride in what they have.

The map below shows the route of Halls Bayou through surrounding mid-north neighborhoods. Homes are packed so close to the bayou that it’s hard to see it in places, so I outlined the route in red.

Route of Halls Bayou through mid-north part of Houston. Airline Drive is on left, I-45 in middle and US 59 on right.

Now, let’s superimpose floodplains over the same area.

Floodway = cross hatch, 100-year floodplain = aqua, and 500-year floodplain =tan. Map last updated in 2007 based on data from Tropical Storm Allison.

North to south along US 59 (on right), the floodplain extends almost 3 miles. And it will extend even farther when new maps based on Atlas 14 are officially released based on Harvey data. The image below shows what the area around US 59 and Halls looked like in 2002 shortly after Tropical Storm Allison.

Note subdivisions built right next to bayou.

Next, see how that area looks today where Halls Bayou crosses under US 59. Two large detention ponds exist where the subdivisions used to be.

Note the two large detention ponds, one on either side of the freeway. The one on the left was substantially completed in 2015 and the one on the right in 2018.

Each detention basin took about three years to build.

Time, Costs of Buyouts

Before HCFCD could construct the detention ponds, it had to buy out homes in adjacent subdivisions and demolish them. Buyouts near the detention areas above began in 2002 when HCFCD received a large grant from the federal government after Allison. Google Earth images show that the buyouts took at least another three years.

Then Flood Control had to get permits from the City of Houston to demolish the streets. That took additional years.

So from 2002 until the completion of construction took 13 to 16 years (2015 and 2018). But the construction itself took only 3 years.

Thus, the total project took 4-5X longer than construction.

$1 of Prevention Worth a $1000 of Flood Mitigation

This area started to develop in the 1940s. The earliest image in Google Earth (1944) shows that it was at the edge of the City then. With more wetlands and farm land to absorb rainfall, the flooding problems were probably not as bad. A few scattered subdivisions pressed against the edges of the bayou. But the lots were large. And had green space been set aside then, the story today might be different.

Halls Bayou in 1944. Note: only two subdivisions started to encroach on the bayou. Rest was rural.

Compare again the shot above with the one below for a dramatic example of infill development. The shot above is NOTHING like today’s below.

Compare the dramatic increase in density with the decrease in bayou width.

Just looking at these two maps, you can see how the dramatic increase in density limits flood mitigation possibilities and raises costs.

We no longer have any easy solutions.

To make matters worse, despite flooding, people often fight buyouts. Most people in neighborhoods like this depend on support networks of friends and family. They fear leaving those networks. Many date back generations.

Should Have Known Better

Developers and home buyers knew or should have known this area was flood prone. But still, they built or bought here at great risk to themselves, and ultimately at great cost to the community.

That raises the question: Why were people allowed to build so close to the bayou in the first place? Why wasn’t sufficient green space left along the bayou to widen it or build detention ponds?

There are no simple answers to that question. Residents may not have felt at risk until upstream development sent more water downstream faster. They may not have been knowledgeable enough about flooding to ask the right questions.

Some just wanted to live close to work. Some wanted to be near family and friends. Some needed the support. And some just pushed their luck because they liked the view or location and the lots were cheap. Regardless, everyone is paying the price for decisions often made decades ago.

Posted by Bob Rehak on April 28, 2021

1338 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Harris County Commissioners Supplement Flood-Bond Funds with Highway Money to Accelerate Mitigation

Tuesday, Harris County Commissioners Court voted 5-0 to transfer $315 million of toll road revenue, unallocated County road bonds and other county funds to accelerate the construction of certain flood-bond mitigation projects. They will allocate the funds to mitigation projects using the 2018 Flood Bond Prioritization Criteria.

The transfer will provide backstop funding for 100% of the projects in the Road & Bridge Subdivision Drainage Program of the 2018 Flood Control Bond Program, removing the risk that partner-funding shortfalls prevent projects from being completed.

Text of Motion

The final language as amended and approved reads as follows:


Create a new funding facility of $115 million, made up of County road bonds or HCTRA surplus revenue, to free up Flood Control bond capacity currently used for the Subdivision Program.  The Flood Control bond capacity will be allocated by utilizing the 2018 Flood Bond prioritization criteria.

Create an additional funding facility of $200 million, comprised of HCTRA surplus revenue or other County resources, to support completion of projects that are part of the 2018 bond program with the required transportation nexus.


Here is a background sheet from the county’s budget management department that explains the switch.

The Subdivision Program consists of 91 projects which, according to HCFCD estimates, reduce the risk of flooding to more than 45,000 homes.

Background

The projects benefit neighborhoods with outdated drainage infrastructure or which never had modern drainage systems in the first place. Furthermore, multiple projects are located in watersheds that have been historically disadvantaged in securing federal funds for flood control. According to the Office of the County Engineer, the Subdivision Program has a current estimated total cost of $535 million (or ~$590 million including an approximately 10% contingency).

Among the objectives:

  • Provide backstop funding for partnership projects in case grants don’t materialize or are delayed beyond a reasonable time
  • Let projects with mature or advanced partner funding opportunities pursue those opportunities for a defined (but not unlimited) period of time..

The background sheet contains a list of eligible projects in each precinct. Any Subdivision Program project costs that have not received a notice or award of partner funding by August 31, 2021, would be eligible to receive additional money from the backstop funding.

Discussion

Discussion on the motion and amendment lasted about an hour. It became clear that commissioners believe they:

  • Must complete all projects in the bond.
  • Expect not to find partnership funds for some projects, leaving those projects underfunded.
  • Need more money.
  • Must use diverted funds on flood projects that have some connection to transportation, i.e., problems created by new highway construction.
This approval will remove a cloud of uncertainty from projects that rely on partnership funding which has not yet materialized for some projects.

Including projects from all four precincts helped ensure a unanimous vote.

Another Bond? Not So Fast

Commissioners talked about the possibility of another flood-bond offering. However, the likelihood of that passing is slim. Poor people feel the money is going to affluent neighborhoods and affluent people feel the money is going to poor neighborhoods. If no one is happy with the way the current bond money has been handled, why would anyone vote to approve more?

Commissioners have grappled for more than a month with how to handle a possible shortfall in partner funding. Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis threatened to slow down or halt all flood-bond projects until Flood Control found a way to fully fund projects in Halls and Greens Bayous. Today’s development, seemed to avoid that showdown.

Flood Control will try to collapse a ten-year timeline down to five years.

It’s unclear at this time how today’s development will affect HUD grants in the pipeline, the interest costs on borrowed money, or the availability of qualified contractors.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/28/2021

1338 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Four Halls Bayou Detention Ponds Recently Completed; Four More Virtually Done

If you saw the recent front page article in the Houston Chronicle about Halls Bayou, you would think that Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) relegated residents in the watershed to “the back of the bus.” Even before the bond, Halls received four floodwater retention projects, three of which are major. HCFCD is trying to expand the fourth of those. And since the flood bond, HCFCD has virtually completed four more floodwater retention projects..

Here’s what I found by simply driving around after consulting the HCFCD website and Google Earth Pro. I wish the Chronicle writer had done the same. There’s just no substitute for laying eyeballs on the job sites before riling up millions of people. Let’s start with the flood-bond projects first. I took all the photos below on 4/25/21 and 4/26/21.

Almost Completed Stormwater Detention Basins in Halls Watershed

Basin on Little York east of US59
New basin at Hopper and US59
Third new basin north of Helms Road east of Airline Drive
Fourth new basin south of Helms Road west of Airline Drive.

Recently Completed in Halls Watershed

Hall Park Stormwater Detention Basin East of US59 at Parker. Google Earth images show this project was substantially completed in 2018.
Bretshire Stormwater Detention Basin West of US59 at Parker. Google Earth images show this project was substantially completed in 2015.
Keith Weiss Park Stormwater Detention Basin on Halls Bayou east of Aldine Westfield. Google Earth images show this project was substantially completed in 2015.
West of Aldine Westfield, there’s a small basin owned by TxDOT. HCFCD hopes to enlarge this basin into the surrounding wooded areas as part of bond project C-25. Google Earth images show the first phase of this project was completed in 2012.

Funding “Shortfall” Not Yet Known

The Chronicle writer also claimed a “funding shortfall” for Halls of $272 million. Curious that he would make this statement just days before the GLO announces the winners of a statewide competition. Harris County could get some, none or all of its requests. To be clear, the competition is stiff; Harvey affected more than 40 counties. Regardless, there’s more than $2 billion up for grabs ($1 billion in this round and $1.144 billion in the next). It seems to me, the Chronicle writer could have waited a few days to publish results rather than rumors.

We Need Real Historical Data on Flood Mitigation Spending

Whether you agree with Rodney Ellis, Adrian Garcia and Lina Hidalgo or not, they have fought tenaciously for their constituents. They succeeded in reordering the priorities in flood-bond spending to serve low-to-moderate income neighborhoods first. For the Chronicle to imply that they failed their constituents is an insult to the Judge and Commissioners.

And to imply that all the money is going to more affluent neighborhoods is simply false. That claim seems designed to inflame racial hatred. Kingwood, for instance, has NEVER received one federally funded capital improvement project from HCFCD. Yet the Chronicle’s readers evidently concluded rich neighborhoods get all the money. Again, there’s no substitute for research.

From the Chronicle writer’s Twitter feed.

Inflaming racial tensions based on false information is the last thing America needs at this time.

In my opinion, we need facts, not fiction. Asserting discrimination is not the same as proving it.

Chronicle Article Also Ignores Tax Issue, Funding Realities

The Chronicle’s “HCFCD-puts-poor-people-at-the-back-of-the-bus” narrative also ignores the mechanics of funding projects. Before the flood bond vote in 2018, I spent an hour with former County Judge Ed Emmett discussing funding needs. A high priority at that point was to make local tax dollars stretch as far as they could by leveraging partner funding.

The need to leverage partner funding was even addressed in the final flood bond language. Paragraph 14 G states “…the commissioners court shall provide a process for the equitable expenditure of funds recognizing that project selection may have been affected in the past and may continue to be affected by eligibility requirements for matching Federal, State and other local government funds.”

Nobody stretches local tax dollars like the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). HUD is one of the main sources for funding projects in low-to-moderate income neighborhoods. Why?

HUD often offers a 90% match.

But there are two catches. First, you’re only eligible if at least 70% of residents that benefit from a project qualify as “low-to-moderate income” (LMI). Second, HUD is slow. To put “slow” in perspective, the Texas General Land Office just started accepting HUD grant applications from Imelda last Saturday. Imelda happened 586 days ago.

Looking at the flood bond spreadsheet (Page 6 of 10) and the expected partnership share of Halls Bayou Projects, you can see that 90/10 ratio reflected in most of the projected funding for Halls.

It’s unclear whether voters would have approved a flood bond that was 9X higher, especially when everyone, rich and poor alike, expressed concerns about not getting their fair share.

Alternative Sources of Halls Funding More Risky

Had HCFCD tried for FEMA funding instead, the low home values in Halls neighborhoods may have yielded a poor Benefit/Cost Ratio. Commissioner Ellis constantly reminds people about the perils of FEMA funding when applied to LMI neighborhoods.

So really, HCFCD had no choice but to focus on HUD for Halls projects.

  • The neighborhoods qualified.
  • The HUD match was far higher.
  • That minimized a tax increase.
  • It also maximized the number of possible Halls projects.

This was not a “gamble” as the Chronicle headline implied; it was actually the least risky option that seemed to benefit the most people.

Map above taken from HUD CDBG-MIT Draft Grant Application from Halls Bayou Watershed shows that 144,000 people in the watershed qualify as LMI (low to moderate income). That’s 70.6% of the total residents. To see the complete draft, visit this page.

We all need to calm down and wait to see how much money HUD grants the Hall’s Bayou Watershed projects. Brittany Eck of the GLO told me that she expects decisions by the end of this month. That’s this Friday.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/27/2021

1337 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 586 since Imelda

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Officials Slapped With Criminal Complaints for Failure to Produce Records in Colony Ridge Investigation

On Friday, 4/23/2021, journalist-turned-private-investigator Wayne Dolcefino filed criminal complaints against two public officials for failure to comply with the Texas Public Information Act (TPIA) in regard to his widening Colony-Ridge probe.

The TPIA requests included communication records between State Representative Ernest Bailes, Colony Ridge developer Trey Harris, and Colony Ridge lawyer Brent Lane. Dolcefino has also been frustrated in his attempts to obtain communication records from Liberty County Precinct 2 Commissioner Greg Arthur.

Behind the Criminal Complaints

Dolcefino suspects the records may shed light on the relationship between developers and public officials, and who is behind the failure of Liberty County to produce a complete set of Colony Ridge drainage analyses. The drainage reports were sought earlier under a separate TPIA request and relate to flooding issues that suddenly developed in Plum Grove. After Colony Ridge development began, the town’s main road washed out and homes started flooding repeatedly.

The question now is “Why?” are officials so reluctant to comply with the law?

After 4 months, the County still has not supplied the drainage records. Nor has it fully complied with the request for communication records. The latter triggered Dolcefino’s criminal complaints.

Earnest Bailes and Greg Arthur Target of Complaints

District 18 State Representative Ernest Bailes and Liberty County Precinct 2 Commissioner Greg Arthur are the first,” according to Dolcefino, to be subjects of criminal complaints regarding the hiding of public records. The complaints filed in Liberty, San Jacinto and Travis Counties are part of a widening Dolcefino Consulting investigation of Liberty County’s controversial Colony Ridge real-estate development.

“We do not tolerate public officials who ignore state law. The citizens of Plum Grove deserve to see the records that we have been asking for.”

Wayne Dolcefino, President of Dolcefino Consulting

Still Seeking Communication Records After 4 Months

Bailes’ Communication Records

Dolcefino formally requested a year of Representative Earnest Bailes communication records relating to state business; Trey Harris, the Colony Ridge Developer; and Brent Lane, Harris’ attorney. Dolcefino made the request in December 2020.

In four months since then, Bailes has provided screenshots for just one unidentified week of phone calls and seven text messages. Bailes’ office maintains there are no additional records. According to Dolcefino, Representative Bailes also refused to say whether he accepted trips from the developer.

“We have spoken with the San Jacinto County District Attorney and the San Jacinto County Sheriff’s Office,” said Dolcefino. “We are confident they will seek the immediate production of these records. Representative Bailes has had four months to destroy the records of his text messages and this investigation should include efforts to recover what was on his phone when our request was made.”

Arthur’s Communication Records

Precinct 2 Commissioner Greg Arthur was supposed to supply more than a year of communications records pertaining to county business. Dolcefino says Arthur produced pictures of phone records on a computer screen taken with a cell phone.  “All of the images were hard to read and many were totally illegible,” said Dolcefino. “Commissioner Arthur has ignored repeated requests for the actual, legible phone records.”

Example of records produced by Liberty County Precinct 2 Commissioner Greg Arthur – out of focus images of computer screen.

Drainage Records Still Missing, Too

These criminal complaints came months after county officials failed to find and produce missing drainage reports. The engineering firm that worked for Colony Ridge, Landplan Engineering, has also refused requests by Dolcefino Consulting to provide the drainage records.

The records are instrumental in determining if Colony Ridge broke Liberty County development rules.

Wayne Dolcefino

“We have not asked for the Magna Carta,” says Dolcefino. “These are records that were allegedly reviewed by the former county engineer before he put his state stamp on their plans just a few years ago. At least we know where the Magna Carta is.”

Why Finding Drainage Docs Is Important

In response to an initial request for drainage analyses and construction plans for all Colony Ridge subdivisions, Liberty County initially produced 39 documents. Most mischaracterized soil types in a way that could have contributed to flooding.

Landplan Engineering classified Colony Ridge soils as more permeable than USDA says they are.

If you go by Landplan’s numbers, more rain would soak in and less would run off. That reduces the amount of detention ponds needed, saves the developer money, and lets the developer sell more lots.

But if you go by the USDA numbers, the opposite is true. More rain runs off, more detention ponds are needed, costs go up, and the developer sells fewer lots. And if you don’t build enough detention ponds, people downstream flood.

Who’s right? No one seems to be able to supply soil samples to verify the information. Dolcefino also requested those. But the infiltration rates of the soil types were not the only problem in the Landplan reports.

None of the reports explained HOW Landplan calculated drainage requirements. And none certified, as required by law, that there would be no negative impact to upstream or downstream properties.

Bob Rehak

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/25/2021 based on input provided by Dolcefino Consulting and Liberty County

1335 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 584 since Imelda

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Kathy Perry Britton Fights Being Deposed on Elm Grove Flooding

Lawyers for Perry Homes CEO, Kathy Perry Britton, have filed a motion for a protective order to quash a request for her deposition. The motion involves lawsuits against her company and its subsidiaries for two 2019 floods that affected hundreds of homeowners in Kingwood’s Elm Grove Village and North Kingwood Forest. Ms. Britton’s basic argument: it’s beneath her.

Catch-22: Claims No Unique or Personal Knowledge

Ms. Britton’s attorneys claim she is an “apex-level” official and cannot be deposed without showing that she has “unique or personal knowledge” of discoverable information. This puts hundreds of plaintiffs in a Catch-22 situation – a paradoxical situation from which an individual cannot escape because of contradictory rules or limitations.

In essence, Ms. Britton says defendants can’t depose her because she doesn’t have anything worth knowing. But without deposing her, how could they know that?

Talking Is Too Intrusive

Ironically, her lawyers assert that plaintiffs must learn what she knows through “less intrusive methods” than talking to her. Her lawyers maintain that CEOs live by different rules than the rest of us, and cite seven pages of legal precedents to support their opinion.

Duh!!!!!!!! Making the Case for Negligence?

To reinforce her argument, Ms. Britton personally claims:

  • “I have no first-hand, personal knowledge of any relevant facts…”
  • “I have no first-hand, personal knowledge of the flooding events…”
  • “I have no first-hand, personal knowledge of the construction or engineering practices followed by Perry Homes, Figure Four Partners, Ltd., PSWA, Inc., or any of the subcontractors hired to work on the Woodridge Village Development.”
  • “I have no first-hand, personal knowledge of the selection, hiring, retention, training, or supervision of any of the subcontractors on the Woodridge Village Development.”
  • “I have no first-hand, personal knowledge of any engineering or design requirements for the Woodridge Village Development.”
  • “I have no first-hand, personal knowledge of the engineering design or plans implemented or created for the Woodridge Village Development, including whether and how such plans were approved or followed.”
  • “I have no first-hand, personal knowledge as to whether the work performed at the Woodridge Village Development was properly supervised.”
  • “I have no first-hand, personal knowledge as to what work was performed (or not performed) at the Woodridge Village Development…”

Perhaps this is why so many people flooded! In my opinion, it seems Ms. Britton just admitted negligence.

What’s Proper Response for CEO?

One might think that after approximately 200 homes flooded in Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest on May 7, 2019, that any competent CEO would have been all over this situation to make sure it didn’t happen again. After all, hundreds of lives were disrupted and the damages could involve tens of millions of dollars. It doesn’t seem like a good time to stick your head in the sand.

If I were the CEO, I would at least investigate to see if my companies had any liability.

Bob Rehak

But no! Ms. Britton now lays bare the problem. The CEO kept her distance. It wasn’t her problem. And then it happened again.

Two to three times as many homes flooded during Imelda – only five months later. For the same reasons. And, if we take her at her word, she still kept her distance.

The floods were important enough for the Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo; Dave Martin, the Mayor Pro Tem of the City of Houston; and US Congressman Dan Crenshaw to visit Elm Grove. But not Kathy Perry Britton.

Talk About Intrusiveness!

Sitting for a deposition in a comfortable conference room seems far “less intrusive” than having several feet of muddy floodwater invade your home, destroy your belongings, and ruin your vehicles. (Ms. Britton, if you want to know what “intrusive” is, see below.)

Abel and Nancy Vera live next to Woodridge Village (in the background beyond the trees). They burned out two power washers trying to get several inches muck off their driveway after Imelda.
Vehicle destroyed in Imelda flood. Vera neighbor on Village Springs in Elm Grove.
Water in Keith Stewart's home on Shady Maple after May 7th flood in 2019.
Water in Keith Stewart’s home on Shady Maple after May 7th flood in 2019.
The hopes and dreams of children were dragged to the curb for the second time in five months after the September 19th flood in Elm Grove.
US Congressman Dan Crenshaw talking with Elm Grove residents whose homes were destroyed in the September 2019 flood.

It’s curious that a US Congressman took the time to get personal, first-hand knowledge of the floods in Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest. But Kathy Perry Britton could not. Perhaps picking wallpaper for her new model homes was more important.

I hope the judge in this case quashes the protective order. Read the full text of Ms. Britton’s Motion for a Protective Order here.

Read Plaintiff’s latest amended petition here.

For more about the history of the Woodridge Village fiasco see:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/24/2021

1334 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 583 since Imelda

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Silence: Liberty County, Colony Ridge, Landplan Engineering Remain Mute on Missing Documents

Wayne Dolcefino titles his latest video “The Sounds of Silence.” It’s about the Colony Ridge problems in Liberty County and the response of officials.

On December 26, 2020, I reported about missing drainage reports for the Colony Ridge development in Liberty County. The post also discussed the mischaracterization of soil types in the reports that did exist. The mischaracterization let the developer overestimate the infiltration of rain and thus underestimate runoff. That meant he needed fewer detention ponds and smaller ditches. And that, in turn, meant the developer could sell more lots. But then the flooding started. Coincidental?

Sounds of Silence

On January 4, 2021, Liberty County Attorney Matthew Poston launched an investigation.

But four months later, the documents are still missing. Without explanation.

Either they got lost or were never developed in the first place. And no one will defend or explain the soil sampling in the documents that were produced.

Neither will anyone talk about how large parts of Colony Ridge got approved by the County without the required engineering documents certifying “no negative effect” on drainage upstream or downstream from the development (see page 5). Note: Plum Grove Road has been washed out since Harvey and keeps getting worse. Neither will they talk about whether conditions at Colony Ridge comply with Liberty County regulations.

  • Jay Knight, the Liberty County Judge, won’t talk.
  • Greg Arthur, Liberty County Precinct 2 Commissioner, won’t talk.
  • David Douglass, the Liberty County Engineer, won’t talk.
  • Louis Bergman, the former Liberty County Engineer, won’t talk.
  • Trey Harris, the developer of Colony Ridge, won’t talk.
  • Earnest Bailes, Liberty County’s state rep won’t talk.
  • Phil Struble, CEO of Landplan Engineering, won’t talk.

Enter Wayne Dolcefino, Investigator Extraordinaire

Wayne Dolcefino, formerly one of the country’s foremost investigative journalists and now a private investigator for the Plum Grove City Council, picked up the scent of a coverup. And he’s running it to ground…all the way to the Liberty County Courthouse and the headquarters of Landplan Engineering in Kansas. Landplan served as the engineering company for the Colony Ridge developer.

Merry Christmas from Colony Ridge. Photographed December 7, 2020. On August 11, 2015, Trey Harris, Colony Ridge Developer, told Liberty County Commissioners he “would work with the County to assure his subdivisions were ones Liberty County could be proud of.” (See top Page 5).

Simon and Garfunkle’s 1965 hit The Sounds of Silence became the theme song for Dolcefino’s latest exposé. In the 13-minute video, Dolcefino asks officials difficult questions about persistent problems that have driven off half of tiny Plum Grove’s population in the last few years.

I never get tired of watching Dolcefino wave his microphone in front of people who walk away to avoid answering questions.

From Dolcefino’s latest video on Colony Ridge. Trey Harris turns his back to Dolcefino and walks away rather than answering questions.

For those who enjoy hard-hitting investigative journalism that speaks truth to power, this is a must-view video.

When it’s all over, you’ll ask yourself the biggest question of all: “Are these officials protecting the people who elected them or each other?”

We may soon find out. I interviewed Dolcefino this afternoon. He told me that his company, Dolcefino Consulting, is filing criminal complaints against State Representative Earnest Bailes and Commissioner Greg Arthur for failure to produce records requested under the Texas Public Information Act.

Keep your eye on this one. It has the potential to affect cozy relationships between developers and officials throughout the state.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/23/2021 based on a video by Wayne Dolcefino

1333 Days after Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.