The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances for tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days to 40%.
Tropical Wave Moving into Gulf
Forecasters expect a tropical wave nearing the southeast Bahamas this morning to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. There, it will find upper level winds more favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
The National Hurricane Center gives the disturbance marked with an orange X a 40% chance of development as it moves toward the Gulf in the next five days.
Several global models now show the formation of at least a tropical storm. “The overall potential appears to be increasing that a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico between Tuesday and Thursday next week and threaten the US Gulf coast,” says Jeff Lindner, chief meteorologist with Harris County Flood Control.
Conditions Favorable for Tropical Development
There is currently no defined surface low pressure system, so it is uncertain where an actual center may form. However, high pressure building over the US east coast this week will likely force the storm to track WNW across the Gulf of Mexico. How fast and how strong this high builds will determine the exact track of the storm. Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico look fairly favorable for development so it will need to be watched closely.
Rainfall Chances Increasing
Lindner is not making any changes to the local forecasts at this time since the uncertainty remains high. However, he says, “A wet pattern will be developing today-Monday as a tropical wave south of the Louisiana coast moves into the area. Rainfall amounts over the next 3 days may average 1-2 inches with isolated amounts of 3-5 inches.”
“Residents along the TX/LA coasts,” says Lindner, “should monitor the progress of the tropical wave over the next 5 days.” He urges residents to check forecasts daily.
Earlier this year, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) voted to lower the level of Lake Conroe during the peak of hurricane season. The purpose: to provide an additional buffer against flooding for downstream residents until the river could be dredged. The SJRA has now reached its target of 199 mean feet above seal level (MSL).
Temporary Lowering Accommodates Dredging
The SJRA stated, “This was the target elevation established by the San Jacinto River Authority and the City of Houston to create a temporary flood mitigation benefit while dredging activities take place in the lower part of the San Jacinto River.”
The lowering happened gradually during August. To avoid downstream flooding, the SJRA released water at the rate of 200-300 cubic feet per second. That amounted to about an inch per day. The exact amount varied due to occasional rain and evaporation.
Lake Conroe Will Return to Normal Level After September
“Now that the target elevation has been reached,” said the SJRA, “Reservoir operators have shut off the release of water from the dam and will operate with the goal of maintaining the current elevation through the end of September. After September, any rainfall flowing into the reservoir will be held, and the reservoir will be allowed to return to the normal elevation of 201 ft-msl.”
Update on Dredging Schedule
As tropical activity heats up, this is good news. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is nearing completion of the assembly of the first of two dredges and miles of dredge pipe. The contractor for the Corps’ Emergency West Fork Dredging Project, Great Lakes, is expected to begin dredging on September 6. Dredging will extend from River Grove Park on the west to Chimichurri’s on the east. It’s not clear yet, which end the contractor will begin on. Great Lakes expects to complete the project, weather permitting, by April of next year.
Posted September 1, 2018 by Bob Rehak
368 Days since Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2018-09-01 06:54:532020-01-17 10:03:20Lake Conroe Seasonal Lowering Reaches Target Level at Peak of Hurricane Season
Numerous posts on this blog have documented how sand mines made flooding worse during Harvey. Yet the total amount of fines levied against mines in the second half of last year state-wide was less than the average repair cost for one home flooded during Harvey.
Let me state some caveats upfront in this post.
During Harvey, the extreme nature of the storm caused flooding.
However, NO sediment should have come from any mine. It could have been easily avoided. Most mines choose to operate in the floodway…downstream from a major dam…in a flood prone region. They have other choices.
They know sand is escaping from their pits; yet they deny it is possible – despite photographic evidence.
But they continue to mine in floodways. Partially as a result, millions of cubic yards of sand now clog the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto, creating higher floods on smaller rains. Meanwhile, the public, businesses, FEMA, and insurance companies are stuck with the cleanup bill and increased flood risk.
Having said that, let’s look at the scorecard.
Fines Levied Statewide by TCEQ on Sand Mines in Last 5 Years
TCEQ fines levied since passage of HB571 through end of 2017. Image scanned from TCEQ report to Texas legislature.
That’s about $800 per fine or a half-million dollars total during five years. If you look just at the last half of 2017 (after Harvey), the TCEQ levied about $140,000 in fines STATEWIDE – far less than it cost to repair ONE average home in Kingwood as a result of Harvey.
Damage to Lake Houston Area During Harvey Related to Excessive Sedimentation
$60 million in repairs to Kingwood High School
$60 million in repairs to Lone Star College/Kingwood
$1.4 billion for 7000+ homes flooded at estimated repair cost of $200,000 each
$1.5 billion in lost productivity ([100,000 people x 200 hours each] + [10,000 people times x 1000 hours each] = 30 million hours x Ave. $50 each)
$70 million for Phase 1 dredging of 2.1 miles out of 13 miles
$50 million for Phase 2 dredging allocated in County Flood Bond
“Billions” lost in home values and tax revenue according to City of Houston
44% of Lake Houston area businesses flooded and closed for months, many closed permanently
Total: Estimated $5+ billion
So Much for Fiscal Conservatism
Even if you think the mines contributed only 10% of the sand in the river and are responsible for only 10% of the damage, they still came out ahead by a pretty lopsided margin, especially considering that we’re comparing statewide to local statistics and extended periods to one event. AND they are not being asked to contribute one penny to clean-up costs beyond their normal taxes. If you or I backed up into a light pole, we would probably get a bill for damaging City property. But not these lucky guys.
You would think the City, County, State, businesses and residents must be flush with cash to absorb these kinds of losses without raising a peep. So much for fiscal conservatism! Since when did Texas replace “You Break It; You Buy It” with corporate welfare and subsidies?
But hey, we need cheap concrete to attract new residents who will make up for these losses. Right?
It’s Time to Change the Conversation
Call me unrealistic, but maybe it’s time to:
Prioritize taxpayers over newcomers.
Compare the tax revenue from mining to losses from other sources.
Balance public safety and private profit.
Put some teeth in TCEQ regulations.
Make all miners move out of the floodway and you could level the playing field for them while protecting them from liability. You could also avoid a lot of that damage, protect lives and property from unnecessary risk, avoid unnecessary losses, make the banking and insurance industries happy, reduce mitigation costs, increase savings and investment, hold down taxes, and attract newcomers. But wait. Win-win? That’s too radical a notion to succeed in politics these days.
As always, these are my opinions on matters of public policy. They are protected by the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Posted by Bob Rehak on August 31, 2018
367 Days since Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2018-08-31 20:58:342018-09-01 05:57:55Sand-Mine Fines vs. Lake-Houston-Area Damage During Harvey
Tropical Formation Chances Increase to 40 Percent Over Next 5 Days
The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances for tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days to 40%.
Tropical Wave Moving into Gulf
Forecasters expect a tropical wave nearing the southeast Bahamas this morning to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. There, it will find upper level winds more favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
The National Hurricane Center gives the disturbance marked with an orange X a 40% chance of development as it moves toward the Gulf in the next five days.
Several global models now show the formation of at least a tropical storm. “The overall potential appears to be increasing that a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico between Tuesday and Thursday next week and threaten the US Gulf coast,” says Jeff Lindner, chief meteorologist with Harris County Flood Control.
Conditions Favorable for Tropical Development
There is currently no defined surface low pressure system, so it is uncertain where an actual center may form. However, high pressure building over the US east coast this week will likely force the storm to track WNW across the Gulf of Mexico. How fast and how strong this high builds will determine the exact track of the storm. Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico look fairly favorable for development so it will need to be watched closely.
Rainfall Chances Increasing
Lindner is not making any changes to the local forecasts at this time since the uncertainty remains high. However, he says, “A wet pattern will be developing today-Monday as a tropical wave south of the Louisiana coast moves into the area. Rainfall amounts over the next 3 days may average 1-2 inches with isolated amounts of 3-5 inches.”
“Residents along the TX/LA coasts,” says Lindner, “should monitor the progress of the tropical wave over the next 5 days.” He urges residents to check forecasts daily.
Check the National Hurricane Center five-day forecasts directly for constant updates.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/1/18
368 Days Since Hurricane Harvey
Lake Conroe Seasonal Lowering Reaches Target Level at Peak of Hurricane Season
Earlier this year, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) voted to lower the level of Lake Conroe during the peak of hurricane season. The purpose: to provide an additional buffer against flooding for downstream residents until the river could be dredged. The SJRA has now reached its target of 199 mean feet above seal level (MSL).
Temporary Lowering Accommodates Dredging
The SJRA stated, “This was the target elevation established by the San Jacinto River Authority and the City of Houston to create a temporary flood mitigation benefit while dredging activities take place in the lower part of the San Jacinto River.”
The lowering happened gradually during August. To avoid downstream flooding, the SJRA released water at the rate of 200-300 cubic feet per second. That amounted to about an inch per day. The exact amount varied due to occasional rain and evaporation.
Source: NOAA Hurricane Research Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
Lake Conroe Will Return to Normal Level After September
“Now that the target elevation has been reached,” said the SJRA, “Reservoir operators have shut off the release of water from the dam and will operate with the goal of maintaining the current elevation through the end of September. After September, any rainfall flowing into the reservoir will be held, and the reservoir will be allowed to return to the normal elevation of 201 ft-msl.”
Update on Dredging Schedule
As tropical activity heats up, this is good news. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is nearing completion of the assembly of the first of two dredges and miles of dredge pipe. The contractor for the Corps’ Emergency West Fork Dredging Project, Great Lakes, is expected to begin dredging on September 6. Dredging will extend from River Grove Park on the west to Chimichurri’s on the east. It’s not clear yet, which end the contractor will begin on. Great Lakes expects to complete the project, weather permitting, by April of next year.
Posted September 1, 2018 by Bob Rehak
368 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Sand-Mine Fines vs. Lake-Houston-Area Damage During Harvey
Numerous posts on this blog have documented how sand mines made flooding worse during Harvey. Yet the total amount of fines levied against mines in the second half of last year state-wide was less than the average repair cost for one home flooded during Harvey.
Let me state some caveats upfront in this post.
However, NO sediment should have come from any mine. It could have been easily avoided. Most mines choose to operate in the floodway…downstream from a major dam…in a flood prone region. They have other choices.
But they continue to mine in floodways. Partially as a result, millions of cubic yards of sand now clog the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto, creating higher floods on smaller rains. Meanwhile, the public, businesses, FEMA, and insurance companies are stuck with the cleanup bill and increased flood risk.
Having said that, let’s look at the scorecard.
Fines Levied Statewide by TCEQ on Sand Mines in Last 5 Years
TCEQ fines levied since passage of HB571 through end of 2017. Image scanned from TCEQ report to Texas legislature.
That’s about $800 per fine or a half-million dollars total during five years. If you look just at the last half of 2017 (after Harvey), the TCEQ levied about $140,000 in fines STATEWIDE – far less than it cost to repair ONE average home in Kingwood as a result of Harvey.
Damage to Lake Houston Area During Harvey Related to Excessive Sedimentation
So Much for Fiscal Conservatism
Even if you think the mines contributed only 10% of the sand in the river and are responsible for only 10% of the damage, they still came out ahead by a pretty lopsided margin, especially considering that we’re comparing statewide to local statistics and extended periods to one event. AND they are not being asked to contribute one penny to clean-up costs beyond their normal taxes. If you or I backed up into a light pole, we would probably get a bill for damaging City property. But not these lucky guys.
But hey, we need cheap concrete to attract new residents who will make up for these losses. Right?
It’s Time to Change the Conversation
Call me unrealistic, but maybe it’s time to:
Make all miners move out of the floodway and you could level the playing field for them while protecting them from liability. You could also avoid a lot of that damage, protect lives and property from unnecessary risk, avoid unnecessary losses, make the banking and insurance industries happy, reduce mitigation costs, increase savings and investment, hold down taxes, and attract newcomers. But wait. Win-win? That’s too radical a notion to succeed in politics these days.
As always, these are my opinions on matters of public policy. They are protected by the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Posted by Bob Rehak on August 31, 2018
367 Days since Hurricane Harvey