Three months after supposedly reaching an agreement in principle to remove the mouth bar, FEMA, the Army Corps, the State and City still have no agreement in writing. From Day 1 of negotiations, FEMA and the Corps have consistently said they can’t address pre-Harvey conditions. I’m beginning to believe them. How did we reach this impasse and how can we move forward?
FEMA’s Dilemma
The Stafford Act (FEMA’s enabling legislation) prohibits FEMA from funding repairs not directly related to Harvey. But, because the City conducted no surveys after the Memorial or Tax Day Floods, it cannot prove how much came from Harvey. Yet it has asked FEMA and the Corps to remove the entire mouth bar.
The City’s Dilemma
The City of Houston has done little to maintain Lake Houston, especially the West Fork of the San Jacinto near Kingwood. Lack of regular surveys and maintenance dredging make city officials look like they’re trying to get others to clean up their mess.
Historical Perspective
Decades ago, after the 1994 flood, the City hired Brown & Root to study sedimentation in the lake, which includes about 13 miles of the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto. Engineers recommended surveying the river after every major storm and dredging when necessary to reduce the risk of flooding. They even pinpointed where sediment would likely build up and pointed out that the West Fork was capturing 42% of all the sediment coming into the lake (see page 9). However, before Harvey, the City never dredged and rarely conducted surveys – decisions that haunt us today.
The mouth bar. Sand, in part from the mines, has almost totally blocked the West Fork where it meets Lake Houston. Unofficial before/after measurements show that as much as ten feet was deposited in this area during Harvey (five below water/five above).
Sedimentation: Danger that Can No Longer Be Ignored
One insidious aspect of sedimentation is its invisibility. Like gunk in pipes, you can’t see it – until water backs up and floods your home. That’s exactly what happened to thousands of homes during Harvey. The problem which had slowly built up for years, went from sub-acute to critical almost overnight because of the massive volume of sediment deposited during Harvey.
That brings us to our present impasse.
No News is Bad News
The City, FEMA, the Army Corps and the State have argued about this for at least six months. We thought they reached agreement in principle to remove the mouth bar three months ago. But still no official announcements have been made. Sadly, it didn’t have to come to this:
If only the City had followed the advice of the experts it hired…
If only the City had maintained its property…
If only the City could document how much Harvey contributed to the blockage…
If only the City had acted years ago to limit sand mining in the floodway of the river…
…we could have been working on the mouth bar already. Instead…
Problem Becoming Demonstrably Worse
In the 80 years since we started keeping records on the West Fork at US59, the river has crested over 50 feet 40 times – once every other year. But in the last 11 months, floods have reached that height SIX times – more than once every other month. We topped 50 feet in the latest flood just minutes ago. All resulted from relatively minor rains. This sudden surge in frequency did not result from global warming.
Is it all a statistical fluke? Wetter than usual weather? El Niño? Upstream development? Perhaps some of each. But one would have to be blind to dismiss the sediment buildup in the river. A delta is marching steadily downstream, creating blockages that back water up.
The West Fork just before Kingwood’s annexation in 1996 and after Harvey. Comparison shows advancing sediment buildups blocking the river.
The High Cost of Ignoring Expert Advice and Routine Maintenance
Harvey brought the high cost of ignoring expert advice and routine maintenance into sharp focus. The lack of a survey that could have been conducted in a few days is costing the City months of delays and potentially tens of millions of dollars in State and Federal assistance. This exposes hundreds of thousands of residents to needless flood risk and undermines property values.
What Needs to Happen
All of this underscores the need to budget for and maintain one’s own property. Drainage fees, which we just put a lock box around, should easily handle the City’s portion of dredging projects and surveys.
How do we break this impasse?
FEMA and the Corps need to restore the conveyance of the river that existed before Harvey. Estimate it using available evidence like aerial photos and satellite images. We’ll never have an exact figure. So quit using that as an excuse to put hundreds of thousands of people at risk. Let’s get started with dredging what we can. Legally.
In return, the City could commit to annual river surveys that document the status of the river before each hurricane season.
I’m not a mediator and I’m not the Mayor, but that sounds like a fair compromise that can protect residents as well as officials on both sides of this negotiation.
Floods don’t happen as often as police or fire emergencies, but when they do, they affect hundreds of thousands of people in ways that can be just as life altering. This is a public safety issue. Let’s go. Reach an agreement, please!
These are my opinions on matters of public policy, protected by the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP statute of the Great State of Texas.
Posted by Bob Rehak on January 4, 2019
493 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/SideBySide.jpg?fit=1440%2C590&ssl=15901440adminadmin2019-01-04 00:14:212019-01-04 09:18:39Why the City Needs Regular River Surveys and Maintenance Dredging
Last night after posting the third flash flood warning in less than a month, several flood-weary people on FaceBook flashed back to Harvey. They questioned why the SJRA wasn’t releasing water in advance of the storm. I quickly went to SJRA.net and looked at their dashboard. They WERE releasing water. The discussion then morphed into another SJRA bloodletting, borne of fear and frustration over a month of near-continuous flood risk and a year and a half of expensive flood repairs.
I’m not here to defend the SJRA. But I suspected perception and reality were currently out of sync. So I emailed a reader’s comments to Jace Houston, general manager of the SJRA, and asked what they were doing to address his concerns.
Update from Jace Houston of SJRA on Recent Releases
Here is the response I got today. I’m reprinting it word for word.
“As you know, there’s a big information gap between what we do during storm events and what the public perceives. We’re working on some significant items to begin closing that gap.”
“We have an information piece that will go out this afternoon regarding the current rainfall event, but I thought I would mention a couple of items to you just in case you get more inquiries.”
“We’ve been releasing water non-stop since the December 7th rainfall. It takes quite a while to safely lower the lake after its risen a couple of feet above normal level. Obviously the level jumped back up from the Christmas rainfall. Releases went back up to around 7000 cfs, and we’re still at over 3000 cfs. Rainfall has been in the forecast pretty much constantly the last 30 days, so we’re in the mode of trying to safely move it out of the lake before the next storm hits.”
“The forecast for this event is not too bad. Approximately two to three inches across our watershed. We’re only a few inches over 201’, so we should be able to manage this one similarly to the Christmas event.”
Jeff Lindner of Harris County Flood Control issued this update re: current rains at 7 p.m. tonight:
“A band of heavy rainfall with rainfall rates of 1.0-1.5 inches per hour is moving NNE over much of Harris County currently extending along the US 59 corridor. HCFCD gages show rainfall amounts of .75-1.5 inches with this band in an hour or less and this will likely result in some street flooding. Rises on area watersheds are likely, but creeks and bayous will be able to handle this round of rainfall.”
“Additional activity to the SW will likely move into the county over the next few hours.”
Hope that helps! Stay tuned to the National Weather Service, NOAA or your favorite source of weather information.
Here are the latest predictions from NOAA for the area around US59 and rainfall in the last 24 hours for Harris County.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/hmmt2_hg.png?fit=600%2C465&ssl=1465600adminadmin2019-01-02 21:13:272019-01-02 21:13:34SJRA Has Released Water Continuously since December 7
The developer of a proposed new high-rise resort in Kingwood plans to develop the marina portion in an area that was once the riverbed of the San Jacinto west fork.
Aerial photos taken in 1943 clearly show the outline of an old meander about .4 miles north of the current riverbed.
1943 aerial photo. Note feint outline of old riverbed above the current river.
Google Earth lets users trace a path and then save it, like I have with this orange line.
Creating an outline of the path allows you to scroll forward in time within Google Earth (see image below).
Here is the same path superimposed over current conditions.
Plans call for marina high rises along orange path just north of lake below eastern edge of Barrington.The Marina would be developed in the old river bed of the San Jacinto.
Photo of proposed marina site next to River Grove Park. The giant sand bar in the foreground of this photo taken after Harvey has mostly been dredged by the Army Corps. However, it’s appearance almost overnight during Harvey contributed to the flooding of 650 homes above the drainage ditch (center left). Future development in this floodplain would likely make flooding worse.
Dangers of Building in Old Stream and Riverbeds
During major floods, water often follows these old streams and riverbeds. Many neighborhoods in Houston discovered this danger during Harvey. Former Harris County Judge Ed Emmett often questioned the wisdom of such developments because of their susceptibility to flooding – even after mitigation.
Here are two examples that show such developments encroaching on waterways and separating them from their floodplains. In the first example, the waterway was obliterated. In the second, White Oak Bayou, the waterway still exists. However, the flood plain has been developed. Despite mitigation efforts during development, the neighborhoods around White Oak Bayou have suffered severe and repeated flooding.
Why Do We Continue to Develop Flood Plains?
This brochure, Why We Continue to Develop Floodplains: Examining the Disincentives for Conservation in Federal Policy, is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand the financial logic behind developments like this one. A group called Earth Economics developed it. Zachary Christin, Project Director for Earth Economics, and Michael Kline, from the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation, authored it with support from the Kresge Foundation. This report investigates whether current federal policy is structured to prevent future flood damage or if incentives lead to further floodplain development.
The basic premise may rub many Texans the wrong way, but you should still read it. “Flood risk management,” the authors argue, “seeks to enable communities to live nearby by controlling rivers with levee systems and other structures. This false sense of protection places families and infrastructure at risk in a climate that is changing beyond our capacity to maintain protections against its effects. Rather than attempting to control our country’s powerful rivers, we should instead control how and where we allow human activities.”
Confining streams, they argue, merely shifts flood risk downstream. The authors explore the benefits and the natural protective qualities of healthy, functional floodplains. They then discuss the causes of floodplain destruction and investigate the policies that further incentivize their development. Finally, they outline paths forward to create new floodplain policy. You may disagree with the premise. But it contains many powerful observations and statistics.
As always, these represent my opinions on matters of public policy. They are protected by the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP statute of the Great State of Texas.
Posted by Bob Rehak on January 2, 2019
491 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/AncientMeander.jpg?fit=1500%2C1023&ssl=110231500adminadmin2019-01-02 19:38:332019-01-13 12:36:05Developer Plans to Build High-Rise Resort in Old Riverbed
Why the City Needs Regular River Surveys and Maintenance Dredging
Three months after supposedly reaching an agreement in principle to remove the mouth bar, FEMA, the Army Corps, the State and City still have no agreement in writing. From Day 1 of negotiations, FEMA and the Corps have consistently said they can’t address pre-Harvey conditions. I’m beginning to believe them. How did we reach this impasse and how can we move forward?
FEMA’s Dilemma
The City’s Dilemma
The City of Houston has done little to maintain Lake Houston, especially the West Fork of the San Jacinto near Kingwood. Lack of regular surveys and maintenance dredging make city officials look like they’re trying to get others to clean up their mess.
Historical Perspective
Decades ago, after the 1994 flood, the City hired Brown & Root to study sedimentation in the lake, which includes about 13 miles of the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto. Engineers recommended surveying the river after every major storm and dredging when necessary to reduce the risk of flooding. They even pinpointed where sediment would likely build up and pointed out that the West Fork was capturing 42% of all the sediment coming into the lake (see page 9). However, before Harvey, the City never dredged and rarely conducted surveys – decisions that haunt us today.
Sedimentation: Danger that Can No Longer Be Ignored
One insidious aspect of sedimentation is its invisibility. Like gunk in pipes, you can’t see it – until water backs up and floods your home. That’s exactly what happened to thousands of homes during Harvey. The problem which had slowly built up for years, went from sub-acute to critical almost overnight because of the massive volume of sediment deposited during Harvey.
That brings us to our present impasse.
No News is Bad News
The City, FEMA, the Army Corps and the State have argued about this for at least six months. We thought they reached agreement in principle to remove the mouth bar three months ago. But still no official announcements have been made. Sadly, it didn’t have to come to this:
Problem Becoming Demonstrably Worse
In the 80 years since we started keeping records on the West Fork at US59, the river has crested over 50 feet 40 times – once every other year. But in the last 11 months, floods have reached that height SIX times – more than once every other month. We topped 50 feet in the latest flood just minutes ago. All resulted from relatively minor rains. This sudden surge in frequency did not result from global warming.
Is it all a statistical fluke? Wetter than usual weather? El Niño? Upstream development? Perhaps some of each. But one would have to be blind to dismiss the sediment buildup in the river. A delta is marching steadily downstream, creating blockages that back water up.
The High Cost of Ignoring Expert Advice and Routine Maintenance
Harvey brought the high cost of ignoring expert advice and routine maintenance into sharp focus. The lack of a survey that could have been conducted in a few days is costing the City months of delays and potentially tens of millions of dollars in State and Federal assistance. This exposes hundreds of thousands of residents to needless flood risk and undermines property values.
What Needs to Happen
All of this underscores the need to budget for and maintain one’s own property. Drainage fees, which we just put a lock box around, should easily handle the City’s portion of dredging projects and surveys.
How do we break this impasse?
FEMA and the Corps need to restore the conveyance of the river that existed before Harvey. Estimate it using available evidence like aerial photos and satellite images. We’ll never have an exact figure. So quit using that as an excuse to put hundreds of thousands of people at risk. Let’s get started with dredging what we can. Legally.
In return, the City could commit to annual river surveys that document the status of the river before each hurricane season.
The City also could commit to a regular maintenance dredging program to keep sediment at a sub-acute level. The annual surveys will determine the exact amounts and frequencies.
The City could also throw its weight behind legislative efforts to move sand mines out of the floodway, where they contribute to levels of sedimentation far beyond natural rates.
I’m not a mediator and I’m not the Mayor, but that sounds like a fair compromise that can protect residents as well as officials on both sides of this negotiation.
Floods don’t happen as often as police or fire emergencies, but when they do, they affect hundreds of thousands of people in ways that can be just as life altering. This is a public safety issue. Let’s go. Reach an agreement, please!
These are my opinions on matters of public policy, protected by the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP statute of the Great State of Texas.
Posted by Bob Rehak on January 4, 2019
493 Days since Hurricane Harvey
SJRA Has Released Water Continuously since December 7
Last night after posting the third flash flood warning in less than a month, several flood-weary people on FaceBook flashed back to Harvey. They questioned why the SJRA wasn’t releasing water in advance of the storm. I quickly went to SJRA.net and looked at their dashboard. They WERE releasing water. The discussion then morphed into another SJRA bloodletting, borne of fear and frustration over a month of near-continuous flood risk and a year and a half of expensive flood repairs.
I’m not here to defend the SJRA. But I suspected perception and reality were currently out of sync. So I emailed a reader’s comments to Jace Houston, general manager of the SJRA, and asked what they were doing to address his concerns.
Update from Jace Houston of SJRA on Recent Releases
Here is the response I got today. I’m reprinting it word for word.
“As you know, there’s a big information gap between what we do during storm events and what the public perceives. We’re working on some significant items to begin closing that gap.”
“We have an information piece that will go out this afternoon regarding the current rainfall event, but I thought I would mention a couple of items to you just in case you get more inquiries.”
“We’ve been releasing water non-stop since the December 7th rainfall. It takes quite a while to safely lower the lake after its risen a couple of feet above normal level. Obviously the level jumped back up from the Christmas rainfall. Releases went back up to around 7000 cfs, and we’re still at over 3000 cfs. Rainfall has been in the forecast pretty much constantly the last 30 days, so we’re in the mode of trying to safely move it out of the lake before the next storm hits.”
“The forecast for this event is not too bad. Approximately two to three inches across our watershed. We’re only a few inches over 201’, so we should be able to manage this one similarly to the Christmas event.”
Mark Micheletti emailed this PDF to me last week. Micheletti is one of Kingwood’s two SJRA board members. The letter explains in more detail how they set the level of releases and coordinate with other agencies.
I hope this settles some nerves and reassures people.
Update on Current Conditions and Releases
At approximately 9 p.m. on January 2, the SJRA is releasing 3198 cfs. Harris County’s Flood Warning System shows the largest rainfalls so far during this event are less than 2 inches.
Jeff Lindner of Harris County Flood Control issued this update re: current rains at 7 p.m. tonight:
“A band of heavy rainfall with rainfall rates of 1.0-1.5 inches per hour is moving NNE over much of Harris County currently extending along the US 59 corridor. HCFCD gages show rainfall amounts of .75-1.5 inches with this band in an hour or less and this will likely result in some street flooding. Rises on area watersheds are likely, but creeks and bayous will be able to handle this round of rainfall.”
“Additional activity to the SW will likely move into the county over the next few hours.”
Hope that helps! Stay tuned to the National Weather Service, NOAA or your favorite source of weather information.
Here are the latest predictions from NOAA for the area around US59 and rainfall in the last 24 hours for Harris County.
9 p.m. January 2. Click here for most recent updates.
Posted by Bob Rehak on January 2, 2019
491 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Developer Plans to Build High-Rise Resort in Old Riverbed
The developer of a proposed new high-rise resort in Kingwood plans to develop the marina portion in an area that was once the riverbed of the San Jacinto west fork.
Aerial photos taken in 1943 clearly show the outline of an old meander about .4 miles north of the current riverbed.
Google Earth lets users trace a path and then save it, like I have with this orange line.
Here is the same path superimposed over current conditions.
Dangers of Building in Old Stream and Riverbeds
During major floods, water often follows these old streams and riverbeds. Many neighborhoods in Houston discovered this danger during Harvey. Former Harris County Judge Ed Emmett often questioned the wisdom of such developments because of their susceptibility to flooding – even after mitigation.
Here are two examples that show such developments encroaching on waterways and separating them from their floodplains. In the first example, the waterway was obliterated. In the second, White Oak Bayou, the waterway still exists. However, the flood plain has been developed. Despite mitigation efforts during development, the neighborhoods around White Oak Bayou have suffered severe and repeated flooding.
Why Do We Continue to Develop Flood Plains?
This brochure, Why We Continue to Develop Floodplains: Examining the Disincentives for Conservation in Federal Policy, is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand the financial logic behind developments like this one. A group called Earth Economics developed it. Zachary Christin, Project Director for Earth Economics, and Michael Kline, from the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation, authored it with support from the Kresge Foundation. This report investigates whether current federal policy is structured to prevent future flood damage or if incentives lead to further floodplain development.
The basic premise may rub many Texans the wrong way, but you should still read it. “Flood risk management,” the authors argue, “seeks to enable communities to live nearby by controlling rivers with levee systems and other structures. This false sense of protection places families and infrastructure at risk in a climate that is changing beyond our capacity to maintain protections against its effects. Rather than attempting to control our country’s powerful rivers, we should instead control how and where we allow human activities.”
Confining streams, they argue, merely shifts flood risk downstream. The authors explore the benefits and the natural protective qualities of healthy, functional floodplains. They then discuss the causes of floodplain destruction and investigate the policies that further incentivize their development. Finally, they outline paths forward to create new floodplain policy. You may disagree with the premise. But it contains many powerful observations and statistics.
As always, these represent my opinions on matters of public policy. They are protected by the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP statute of the Great State of Texas.
Posted by Bob Rehak on January 2, 2019
491 Days since Hurricane Harvey