On January 8, 2019, IBM announced that it will soon introduce a new higher resolution weather-forecasting system. The IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF) will offer 3 kilometer resolution compared to the current industry-average 13-kilometer resolution. That’s 1.25 miles instead of 8.
IBM GRAF system will offer weather forecasters a more than 200% increase in resolution. Image credit: IBM
The system will enable truly local forecasts as opposed to regional. And it will do so on a worldwide basis. Forecasters will soon see individual thunderstorms, not just fronts. And the system will update every hour as opposed to every six to twelve hours, which is the current industry standard. NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model does run hourly at 3-kilometer resolution, but only covers the U.S. The new GRAF system will offer enhanced resolution throughout the world and predict weather as small as a thunderstorm anywhere on the planet. It should especially help regions without access to a system like HRRR.
Improvements Result from Wider Data Collection and Enhanced Processing Power.
IBM says it will crowdsource data. GRAF has the ability to collect pressure sensor readings sent from barometers found in billions of smartphones (if people opt in to share that information). GRAF will also collect data from tens of thousands of commercial aircraft constantly flying at high altitudes all around the world. IBM will process all that data on one of the three most powerful supercomputers in the world. The graphics processing unit in the computer can handle 3.5 petabytes of data. Each petabyte equals 1 million gigabytes or a billion megabytes.
Benefits of Higher Resolution
This much-improved weather system will help people and communities plan better for weather events. IBM expects it will help:
Utility companies to better position repair crews to get power back faster after a storm
Airlines to more effectively route around turbulence
Farmers to better anticipate and prepare for dramatic shifts in weather
Insurers to predict surges in weather-related claims
Better emergency response during extreme events, such as hurricanes, typhoons or tonoradoes.
The new IBM GRAF system should enable more accurate forecasts and better coordination throughout the world.
For more information, see posts about the new IBM GRAF system on Weather Underground and Weather Company sites. Also, the Washington Post had an interesting review that discusses the history of the system’s development.
My thanks to Mario Gomez, retired KHOU weather forecaster, for bringing this to my attention.
Posted by Bob Rehak on January 9, 201
498 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/13km-vs-3-km_0.jpg?fit=835%2C489&ssl=1489835adminadmin2019-01-09 09:09:462019-01-09 21:01:18New, Higher Resolution Global Weather Forecasting on the Horizon
Below are two videos taken by Jim Zura of Zura Productions before and after Harvey. Together with other still images, flooding statistics and the Army Corps’ Value Engineering report, they demonstrate how radically Harvey transformed the West Fork. As you review these, keep in mind that the proposed new high-rise development in this area based its engineering on pre-Harvey assumptions.
Zura, a videographer and local drone pilot, shot this first video in 2016. River Grove Park looked pristine. Beyond it, a massive clear cut area surrounds an idyllic little lake. This is where a developer plans to build a high-rise resort around a marina. The drone then rotates to reveal a river without blockages downstream, or in front of the boat docks. In just 18 months, everything would radically change.
River Grove Before Harvey and the Sand
Hurricane Harvey brought with it massive rainfalls that washed sediment downstream, clogging the West Fork. Onshore, they reached up to five feet and stretched 450 feet inland.
Still frame from Jim’s video compared to a shot I took from a helicopter two weeks after Harvey. The angles are slightly different but they show the same location.
It’s called reduced conveyance of the river. The Army Corps documented this in its Value Engineering Study. Here are some shots I took after Harvey from a helicopter. Consider them within the context of the videos above and below. You will understand why River Grove has been near-continuously inundated for a month. I wonder how the owners of luxury high-rise condos would feel about not being able to access their property for that long.
To get a feeling for how much sand was left in the river by Harvey, see how much lined both shores of the West Fork.Sand on both side of the river stretched 450 inland after Harvey. Nearest the river, it reached 5 feet in height through this reach of the West Fork.A giant sand bar 12 feet high and 1500 feet long was deposited in one event: Harvey. It blocked the drainage ditch that empties the western third of Kingwood. The proposed new high-rise development would also depend on this ditch.
I fail to see how the high-rise developer filling in hundreds of additional acres of floodplain with 12-feet of fill could have zero net impact. If every engineering survey ever submitted for a flood plain development were correct, the world would have no flooding problems.
River Grove after the Christmas flood. Water went down briefly then came back up during the next flood in early January. As of today, the soccer fields were still flooded. See the area that compares to the first video at the end of this one.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/8/2018
497 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/WF-B4AfterHarvey.jpg?fit=1500%2C488&ssl=14881500adminadmin2019-01-07 20:52:122019-01-13 12:33:21Before and After Harvey Images Show Impact of Sediment on West Fork Flooding
Sand Island South of the Kingwood Country Club’s Island Course. I took this picture from a helicopter shortly after Hurricane Harvey. This giant dune virtually blocks the entire West Fork. Experts think it contributes to repeated flooding upstream since Harvey.
After
Keith Jordan, a resident of Kingwood Lake Estates, sent me the pictures below today. They show how quickly Great Lakes Dredge and Dock and the Army Corps are reducing the giant blockage nicknamed “Sand Island” south of Kingwood Country Club. Keith generously consented to let share his pictures with you. He says that much of the island has already been brought down to the water line. It used to jut up 6-10 feet. Still, much dredging remains to reduce the portion below water and restore the conveyance of the West Fork. Progress may look greater than it actually is at the moment because of persistent flooding. As of this posting, the river is still at 46.07 feet according to the USGS gage at US59. That’s about 3.5 feet above normal.
This booster pump keeps sand moving upstream to placement area #2, an old sand mine on Sorters Road south of Kingwood College.
Dredge #2 from Great Lakes Dredge & Dock has been eating away that Sand Island since moving downstream from River Grove Park.
Much of Sand Island is now at the water level.
This wider shot gives you a good feeling for how little is left.
Hopefully, we will get more recent aerial shots from our local drone pilots soon. As the West Fork returns to its normal level, we will see exactly how much of Sand Island remains.
Posted by Bob Rehak on January 6, 2019
496 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/IMG_5434.jpg?fit=1280%2C960&ssl=19601280adminadmin2019-01-06 22:07:552019-01-07 06:45:28Sand Island Losing Ground to Army Corps
New, Higher Resolution Global Weather Forecasting on the Horizon
On January 8, 2019, IBM announced that it will soon introduce a new higher resolution weather-forecasting system. The IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF) will offer 3 kilometer resolution compared to the current industry-average 13-kilometer resolution. That’s 1.25 miles instead of 8.
The system will enable truly local forecasts as opposed to regional. And it will do so on a worldwide basis. Forecasters will soon see individual thunderstorms, not just fronts. And the system will update every hour as opposed to every six to twelve hours, which is the current industry standard. NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model does run hourly at 3-kilometer resolution, but only covers the U.S. The new GRAF system will offer enhanced resolution throughout the world and predict weather as small as a thunderstorm anywhere on the planet. It should especially help regions without access to a system like HRRR.
Improvements Result from Wider Data Collection and Enhanced Processing Power.
IBM says it will crowdsource data. GRAF has the ability to collect pressure sensor readings sent from barometers found in billions of smartphones (if people opt in to share that information). GRAF will also collect data from tens of thousands of commercial aircraft constantly flying at high altitudes all around the world. IBM will process all that data on one of the three most powerful supercomputers in the world. The graphics processing unit in the computer can handle 3.5 petabytes of data. Each petabyte equals 1 million gigabytes or a billion megabytes.
Benefits of Higher Resolution
This much-improved weather system will help people and communities plan better for weather events. IBM expects it will help:
The new IBM GRAF system should enable more accurate forecasts and better coordination throughout the world.
For more information, see posts about the new IBM GRAF system on Weather Underground and Weather Company sites. Also, the Washington Post had an interesting review that discusses the history of the system’s development.
My thanks to Mario Gomez, retired KHOU weather forecaster, for bringing this to my attention.
Posted by Bob Rehak on January 9, 201
498 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Before and After Harvey Images Show Impact of Sediment on West Fork Flooding
Below are two videos taken by Jim Zura of Zura Productions before and after Harvey. Together with other still images, flooding statistics and the Army Corps’ Value Engineering report, they demonstrate how radically Harvey transformed the West Fork. As you review these, keep in mind that the proposed new high-rise development in this area based its engineering on pre-Harvey assumptions.
Zura, a videographer and local drone pilot, shot this first video in 2016. River Grove Park looked pristine. Beyond it, a massive clear cut area surrounds an idyllic little lake. This is where a developer plans to build a high-rise resort around a marina. The drone then rotates to reveal a river without blockages downstream, or in front of the boat docks. In just 18 months, everything would radically change.
River Grove Before Harvey and the Sand
Hurricane Harvey brought with it massive rainfalls that washed sediment downstream, clogging the West Fork. Onshore, they reached up to five feet and stretched 450 feet inland.
The Reason for Increased Flooding Frequency
It’s called reduced conveyance of the river. The Army Corps documented this in its Value Engineering Study. Here are some shots I took after Harvey from a helicopter. Consider them within the context of the videos above and below. You will understand why River Grove has been near-continuously inundated for a month. I wonder how the owners of luxury high-rise condos would feel about not being able to access their property for that long.
I fail to see how the high-rise developer filling in hundreds of additional acres of floodplain with 12-feet of fill could have zero net impact. If every engineering survey ever submitted for a flood plain development were correct, the world would have no flooding problems.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/8/2018
497 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Sand Island Losing Ground to Army Corps
Before
After
Keith Jordan, a resident of Kingwood Lake Estates, sent me the pictures below today. They show how quickly Great Lakes Dredge and Dock and the Army Corps are reducing the giant blockage nicknamed “Sand Island” south of Kingwood Country Club. Keith generously consented to let share his pictures with you. He says that much of the island has already been brought down to the water line. It used to jut up 6-10 feet. Still, much dredging remains to reduce the portion below water and restore the conveyance of the West Fork. Progress may look greater than it actually is at the moment because of persistent flooding. As of this posting, the river is still at 46.07 feet according to the USGS gage at US59. That’s about 3.5 feet above normal.
Hopefully, we will get more recent aerial shots from our local drone pilots soon. As the West Fork returns to its normal level, we will see exactly how much of Sand Island remains.
Posted by Bob Rehak on January 6, 2019
496 Days since Hurricane Harvey