With two weeks left in August and no active tropical systems in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf, I started wondering how this hurricane season stacked up against the average. Through the end of July, we had two named storms in the Atlantic. We also had six in the eastern Pacific, none of which threatened land. That makes a total of eight. How does that compare to a normal year? Below is a chart from NOAA. It shows the averages for tropical storms and hurricanes by month.
167 Years of Hurricane History
The first thing I noticed when looking at this table is the clear jump between July and August. Through the end of July, the averages for both tropical storms and hurricanes are below 1. That means the chances of NOT seeing one are greater than seeing one. However, August is where things heat up (pardon the pun). Your chances of seeing one are far greater than NOT seeing one.
Through the end of July, we exceeded the averages for The Atlantic and Pacific combined. But if you look at just the Atlantic, we are about on average, as the chart below shows.
Cumulative Number of Storms Per 100 Years in The Atlantic Basin.Source: NOAA
The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August (now) to late October.
Current Outlook Clear
However, THIS August has been quiet so far. Season-to-date, we are still slightly above average, but the month of August is unusually quiet. We’re halfway through the month without any named storms in the Atlantic and NOAA expects no activity for the next five days.
Regardless, if you are the type to play the odds, so far this year Texans have to consider themselves lucky.
Lake Levels As of Mid-August
With that in mind, let’s look at what the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) and Coastal Water Authority are doing with Lake Conroe and Lake Houston to reduce the chance of flooding in the event of a major storm.
Both lakes are down about a foot. This creates an extra buffer against flooding by creating extra capacity within the lake.
The SJRA began lowering Lake Conroe on August 1. Normal level is 201 feet above sea level. As of this morning, Lake Conroe was at 200.03 feet and the SJRA continued to release water at a minuscule rate of 150 cubic feet per second. Evaporation is doing most of the work. The SJRA says the lake can lose up to an inch per day through evaporation in hot, dry weather, which we have had plenty of lately. You can always check the current lake level at SJRA.net.
The Coastal Water Authority is maintaining Lake Houston at 41.57 feet above sea level. Normal level is 42.38 feet. A recent lowering for dam maintenance combined with lack of recent rain and evaporation have all contributed to the current level.
The SJRA will continue releasing water at a rate that brings Lake Conroe down to 199 feet by September 1. The SJRA will maintain that level through the end of September, then allow the lake to gradually refill with rainwater until it reaches the normal level of 201 feet.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/peakofseason_sm.gif?fit=500%2C329&ssl=1329500adminadmin2019-08-14 11:52:152019-08-14 11:57:27How This Hurricane Season Compares to Others So Far
Jill Boullion, Executive Director of the Bayou Land Conservancy, sent me a link to a fascinating article called Fossil Rivers. It’s about the evolution of the Mississippi River. Even if you’re not a student of geology, the maps are worth looking at as pieces of abstract art. As the author of the article, Geoff Manaugh says, “Colors coil round other colors; abstract shapes knot, circle, and extend like Christmas gift ribbons. This is geology as a subset of Abstract Expressionism: rocky loops of the Earth’s surface in the hands of Jackson Pollock.”
Army Corps map showing the geomorphology of the Lower Mississippi over time.
Says Manaugh, “Indeed, what the Army Corps of Engineers discovered while producing these maps is that the Mississippi River has changed channel completely – and it has done this hundreds, even thousands, of times. In fact, the river’s endless self-alteration still occurs, even as you read these words: the Mississippi, like all rivers, is migratory, destined to wander across the landscape for as long as it continues to flow. It drifts back and forth – sometimes a few feet, sometimes a mile – walled in by its own silt and debris; until there is change: a natural levee fails, or a storm surge bursts into another watercourse nearby, and then the river finds itself on a quick new route to the sea.”
Powerful reminders to respect the rivers! Give them room. Those who build too close will lose in the long run. People can moan about property rights all they want. But in the end, Mother Nature always wins.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/13/2019
714 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/766866365_e2000a2d1c_o.jpg?fit=475%2C575&ssl=1575475adminadmin2019-08-13 23:32:112019-08-14 09:16:31Respect the Rivers
Bill King, Candidate for Mayor of Houston, will visit Kingwood tomorrow to answer residents’ questions about how he would address flooding and other issues. King will offer a sneak peak of his flood plan that will be released next Monday or Tuesday.
King (left) with Elm Grove resident Abel Vera after the May 7th flood.
Flood mitigation solutions by their very nature are political. I will be posting similar announcements for other candidates as events arise. My hope is that everyone in Houston can meet the candidates personally, get to know them, and learn about their ideas to reduce flooding. A massive turnout in November will help secure our future.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/13/2019
713 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/ElmGroveFlood_01_15.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=110001500adminadmin2019-08-12 18:08:362019-08-12 18:10:23Meet Bill King, Candidate for Mayor of Houston, At Los Cucos Tuesday at 6PM
How This Hurricane Season Compares to Others So Far
With two weeks left in August and no active tropical systems in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf, I started wondering how this hurricane season stacked up against the average. Through the end of July, we had two named storms in the Atlantic. We also had six in the eastern Pacific, none of which threatened land. That makes a total of eight. How does that compare to a normal year? Below is a chart from NOAA. It shows the averages for tropical storms and hurricanes by month.
167 Years of Hurricane History
The first thing I noticed when looking at this table is the clear jump between July and August. Through the end of July, the averages for both tropical storms and hurricanes are below 1. That means the chances of NOT seeing one are greater than seeing one. However, August is where things heat up (pardon the pun). Your chances of seeing one are far greater than NOT seeing one.
Distribution of Atlantic Storms by Month
Through the end of July, we exceeded the averages for The Atlantic and Pacific combined. But if you look at just the Atlantic, we are about on average, as the chart below shows.
The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August (now) to late October.
Current Outlook Clear
However, THIS August has been quiet so far. Season-to-date, we are still slightly above average, but the month of August is unusually quiet. We’re halfway through the month without any named storms in the Atlantic and NOAA expects no activity for the next five days.
Lake Levels As of Mid-August
With that in mind, let’s look at what the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) and Coastal Water Authority are doing with Lake Conroe and Lake Houston to reduce the chance of flooding in the event of a major storm.
The SJRA began lowering Lake Conroe on August 1. Normal level is 201 feet above sea level. As of this morning, Lake Conroe was at 200.03 feet and the SJRA continued to release water at a minuscule rate of 150 cubic feet per second. Evaporation is doing most of the work. The SJRA says the lake can lose up to an inch per day through evaporation in hot, dry weather, which we have had plenty of lately. You can always check the current lake level at SJRA.net.
The Coastal Water Authority is maintaining Lake Houston at 41.57 feet above sea level. Normal level is 42.38 feet. A recent lowering for dam maintenance combined with lack of recent rain and evaporation have all contributed to the current level.
The SJRA will continue releasing water at a rate that brings Lake Conroe down to 199 feet by September 1. The SJRA will maintain that level through the end of September, then allow the lake to gradually refill with rainwater until it reaches the normal level of 201 feet.
Pre-emptive seasonal lowering helped avoid flooding last spring. Keep your fingers crossed!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/14/2019
715 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Respect the Rivers
Jill Boullion, Executive Director of the Bayou Land Conservancy, sent me a link to a fascinating article called Fossil Rivers. It’s about the evolution of the Mississippi River. Even if you’re not a student of geology, the maps are worth looking at as pieces of abstract art. As the author of the article, Geoff Manaugh says, “Colors coil round other colors; abstract shapes knot, circle, and extend like Christmas gift ribbons. This is geology as a subset of Abstract Expressionism: rocky loops of the Earth’s surface in the hands of Jackson Pollock.”
Says Manaugh, “Indeed, what the Army Corps of Engineers discovered while producing these maps is that the Mississippi River has changed channel completely – and it has done this hundreds, even thousands, of times. In fact, the river’s endless self-alteration still occurs, even as you read these words: the Mississippi, like all rivers, is migratory, destined to wander across the landscape for as long as it continues to flow. It drifts back and forth – sometimes a few feet, sometimes a mile – walled in by its own silt and debris; until there is change: a natural levee fails, or a storm surge bursts into another watercourse nearby, and then the river finds itself on a quick new route to the sea.”
Powerful reminders to respect the rivers! Give them room. Those who build too close will lose in the long run. People can moan about property rights all they want. But in the end, Mother Nature always wins.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/13/2019
714 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Meet Bill King, Candidate for Mayor of Houston, At Los Cucos Tuesday at 6PM
Bill King, Candidate for Mayor of Houston, will visit Kingwood tomorrow to answer residents’ questions about how he would address flooding and other issues. King will offer a sneak peak of his flood plan that will be released next Monday or Tuesday.
Flood mitigation solutions by their very nature are political. I will be posting similar announcements for other candidates as events arise. My hope is that everyone in Houston can meet the candidates personally, get to know them, and learn about their ideas to reduce flooding. A massive turnout in November will help secure our future.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/13/2019
713 Days since Hurricane Harvey