SJRA Adopts Modified Lake Lowering Program

In a marathon meeting last night, the SJRA modified the seasonal lowering program for Lake Conroe. The adopted motion does not exactly follow the City of Houston’s last-minute compromise recommendation. It delays lowering the lake to 199.5 feet until after September 1 to accommodate boaters and businesses on Lake Conroe. The City had recommended lowering the lake to that level beginning August 1. The old policy called for lowering the lake all the way to 199 in both months.


Details of Plan

Minutes of the meeting have not yet been approved, but here is the preliminary summary:

Spring lowering:  

Lower to 200’ msl (mean feet above sea level) beginning April 1 through May 31.  Recapture begins June 1.

Fall lowering:
  • Beginning August 1, lower to 200’ msl.
  • Beginning September 1, lower to 199.5’ msl.
Tropical Storm Provision:

If a named storm enters the region, City of Houston may initiate an additional prerelease to 199’ msl by requesting the SJRA to do so in writing. SJRA staff will coordinate with COH staff on the details and timing of the lowering.

Duration of Program

The program will continue through December 2022, giving the City of Houston enough time to add additional gates to Lake Houston and complete West Fork dredging.


1400 Crowd Convention Hall for 5-Hour Meeting

More than 1400 people crammed into the meeting at the Lone Star Convention Center in Conroe. The meeting lasted more than five hours. Some people arrived hours earlier to make sure they got seats.

Estimated crowd of 1400. White shirts from Lake Houston, red from Lake Conroe.

Lake Conroe residents still outnumbered Lake Houston residents by 2 to 1, but it was far better than the 20 to 1 ratio in previous meetings on this topic.

Also present at last night’s meeting were people from between the two lakes in communities such as River Plantation. More than 1100 people between Lake Conroe and Lake Houston flooded during Harvey when the SJRA released 80,000 cubic feet per second.

Flooded Protester at February SJRA Board Meeting

Plea for Civility Starts Meeting

The meeting started with a plea by the chambers of commerce from the two areas for unity and civility. And the meeting was in fact far more civil than previous meetings on this topic. Gone was the bar room atmosphere of jeers, catcalls, name calling, interruptions, and physical threats.

Staff Presentation and Mayor’s Letter Change Debate

Before public comments began, two developments totally changed the debate. Most people expected the SJRA to decide between continuing or scrapping the existing plan. However, the evening before the meeting, Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner sent a letter to the SJRA suggesting a compromise proposal: 200 msl in the spring and 199.5 in the fall. Then Chuck Gilman, SJRA’s Director of Water Resources and Flood Management, kicked off the meeting with an alternate proposal: 200 msl in spring AND fall.

Gilman’s presentation to the board emphasized lowering the lake one foot could have prevented releases in all but three storms in the last twenty years. Gilman’s team correlated the average rise in lake level per inch of rainfall in dozens of events. See graph below.

SJRA data shows that 1-foot of extra lake level (yellow line) would handle all but three storms that occurred in last 20 years. Hurricane Harvey was excluded from graph because it was considered an anomaly.

“A review of historic rainfall data and corresponding lake rise suggests less than 2 feet of storage is adequate to catch most storm events at Lake Conroe that occur in the fall,” said Gilman.

“Only two rainfall events that occurred in the months of August and September since 1999 (excluding 2017) resulted in more than one-foot of rise in Lake Conroe. More than 90% of these events resulted in less than 3 inches of rise in Lake Conroe. Five named tropical storms in this same period resulted in less than 12 inches of rise,” he said.

Many residents in attendance questioned why the SJRA excluded 1994 and Harvey from examination in the chart above. The worst downstream damage occurred during those two events.

Both the City’s proposal and the SJRA’s came as surprises to many people. Instead of choosing between A and B, suddenly C and D became options, too.

Board Settles on Compromise to Mayor’s Compromise Proposal

In the end, the proposal adopted by the SJRA differed from the City’s in one key respect. The level of Lake Conroe remains a half foot higher in August to accommodate boaters during vacation season. SJRA Board President Lloyd Tisdale characterized August revenue as vital to the area’s economy. Tisdale said vacationing falls off significantly after Labor Day.

Board member Kaaren Cambio who represents the Lake Houston area preferred the Mayor’s proposal but acknowledged that the final plan “balances flood mitigation with water supply and recreation. The board heard businesses and delaying the fall release will extend the boating season.”

The approved plan still lets the City of Houston call for lowering to 199 msl if forecasters predict a named tropical storm will enter the region within five days.

The City owns two thirds of the water in the lake. City Council Member Dave Martin said in his remarks before the board voted that “The City could take the lake down to 180 msl if it wanted.”

In the end, it appeared that the Board punted any responsibility for painful reductions and put that onus on the City.

State Emphasizing Need for Cooperation within Watersheds

Much of the board’s debate focused whether to adopt the City’s proposal verbatim. Board President Tisdale’s opening remarks cited the importance of partnership with other entities in the region. Legislation adopted in 2019 places a premium on cooperation within a watershed. The Texas Water Development Board can financially penalize those that don’t cooperate. They now score grant requests based on how well all affected areas work together. “We have to look at this as a regional flooding issue,” said Tisdale.

Upstream/Downstream Split

Both Lake Houston area Board Members, Kaaren Cambio and Mark Micheletti, argued for adopting the City’s plan, but none of the other board members agreed. In the end, they voted to adopt a plan that delayed lowering the Lake to 199.5 until September 1.

Net Effect Vs. Historical Averages

After a debate going back to 2018, we now have a lake-lowering plan that closely mirrors Mother Nature’s. Unless we’re in a very wet or very dry year.

Compared to historical averages, the SJRA will lower Lake Conroe:

  • 4 to 5 inches in April and May
  • 0 inches in August
  • 3 inches in September
Historical monthly lake level averages since Lake Conroe was built. Variation due to evaporation and rainfall rates. Source: SJRA January 2020 Board Presentation by Chuck Gilman.

Of course, that assumes the City does NOT call for greater reductions. Also keep in mind that these are averages, not certainties. If the lake levels are higher or lower than the average in any given year, these reductions would vary.

The primary protection provided by the policy adopted by the SJRA would occur in a very wet year when the lake was full up to 201 msl. Then the reduction would be 12 inches in August and 18 in September.

State Representative Dan Huberty who gave a powerful speech before the board began deliberations, said, “I am proud of our community and how we came together, including the State (Especially Governor Abbott and Chief Nim Kidd), the City, the County, our Chamber and most importantly our citizens.”

Huberty continued, “Thank you for showing up and being respectful but forceful. We worked very hard, and in the end won a vote that achieves our goal of  lake lowering. Special thanks to Mark Micheletti and Kaaren Cambio for having the courage to stand up with and for the recommendation from Mayor Turner and Mayor Pro-Tem Martin.”

The City of Houston provided no comment.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/21/2020

906 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Mayor Turner Proposes New Compromise on Lowering Lake Conroe

Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner and Public Works Director Carol Haddock have sent a compromise proposal to the SJRA board on the eve of the meeting that will decide the fate of their seasonal lake lowering policy.

Details of Original Proposal

The original policy has received heavy pushback from Lake Conroe people who claim its destroying property, schools, recreation and the Montgomery County tax base. It has also sparked vigorous support from Lake Houston Area businesses and residents. They see the extra storage capacity in Lake Conroe as a buffer against flooding until they can finish permanent mitigation projects such as dredging and the construction of additional gates on Lake Houston’s dam.

That original policy implemented in the fall of 2018 called for lowering the lake to 199 feet from 201 during the peak of hurricane season. It also called for lowering the lake to 200 feet in the rainiest months of spring.

Due to dry weather this winter, Lake Conroe never fully recovered its normal pool level. And at this writing, it remains at 199.21 feet.

Details of Proposed Compromise

The new proposal by Mayor Turner calls for continue lowering Lake Conroe to 200 feet during April and May. However, Turner calls for lowering Lake Conroe to 199.5 in the the fall from August 1 through November 1. That’s a wider window but a smaller reduction.

Turner puts two other conditions on the compromise:

  • The policy would remain in place until dredging is complete and the City has install new floodgates on the Lake Houston Dam.
  • In addition, Lake Conroe would be lowered to 199 feet any time a named tropical storm is predicted to impact our region within a 5-day forecast.

Full Text of Letter

The full text of the letter is below.

What This Really Means in Practical Terms

It seems that there is little for Lake Conroe people to argue about here. With the exception of an approaching tropical storm or hurricane, the lake levels would rarely be dropped much below the normal levels due to evaporation. See graph below. In fact, the most lake levels would drop manually beyond historical averages would be .42 feet in August or about 5 inches, unless a tropical system approaches.

Source: SJRA presentation by Chuck Gilman. Lake Conroe was built in 1973, so this data goes back to the beginning.

Turner Has Power to Order Reduction If Lake Conroe People Don’t Compromise

Although he did not explicitly say it, Turner has the power to order the reductions simply by calling for the water. The City of Houston owns two-thirds of the water in Lake Conroe.

The last paragraph in Turner’s letter, the one about collaboration and partnership, may be a veiled reference to that fact. If the SJRA does not cooperate, he may not feel obliged to either. In that case, Lake Conroe residents could find themselves with even lower lake levels.

All in all, it’s an attempt to hold off another bar-room brawl like the SJRA hosted last month.

I’d feel more comfortable with a larger reduction. But I’m sure the Conroe people would like no reduction. Such is the nature of compromise…a lost art in American politics.

All in all, the Mayor’s proposal is a good compromise between drought and flood mitigation. Both are key elements of the SJRA’s mission as defined by the State legislature.

Keep in mind that the figures above show AVERAGES. If a named tropical storm comes into the Gulf and the lake is already at or above 201, it would still be lowered to 199.5. That would be much more than 5 inches. But still, it should not create an abnormal hardship for anyone.

Make Your Voice Heard

Tomorrow is the last chance to make your opinion known about this issue before the crucial vote. For more information, see the Lake Lowering page of this web site.

BOARD OF DIRECTORS SPECIAL MEETING 
  • Thursday, February 20, 2020
  • 6pm at Lone Star Convention and Expo Center
  • 9055 Airport Road, Conroe, Texas 77303
  • Doors open at 5pm.

Those wishing to address the board or register a comment at a special meeting may fill out a Comment Registration Form https://www.sjra.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Comment-Registration-Form_01062020.pdf. Comment Registration Forms may be submitted at the special meeting. The form may not be mailed, emailed, or dropped off prior to the meeting date.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/19/2020

904 Days after Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Resilient Houston: Boiling the Ocean

Earlier this month, the City of Houston released an epic 186-page report called “Resilient Houston.”

Cover photo from Resilient Houston. To see the entire report, click here.

Defining Resilience: The First Challenge

After Harvey, one heard lots of talk about “resilience.” Frankly, it became the cliché of the day in many circles. One could not go to a seminar or public meeting without hearing someone spout the term with the zeal of a freshly minted MBA trying to impress his/her boss. The word-du-jour bestowed an air of insider knowledge that commanded attention in a room full of people looking for answers.

The problem with such amorphous terms is they fail to calibrate expectations and set boundaries. Because no one knows exactly what they mean, they can be twisted to mean almost anything and serve any parochial interest.

Making the City More Resistant to Flooding?

I, for one, thought it was all about making the city more resistant to flooding. Silly me. I should have known better. When I opened the final report last week, I found a blueprint for transforming the City into a Utopian society. The sentiments were all noble and borne of an egalitarian ethic. But very little of the report addressed ways to flood-proof the city.

180 Degrees from Flood-Bond Approach

This was nothing like the Harris County Flood Bond a year after Harvey. During that year, Flood Control put the county under a microscope. It met with residents, business owners and community leaders in every watershed. Then flood control developed a project list, estimated project costs, and gave voters something tangible to vote on – a $2.5 billion bond. After voters approved it, approximately half of the mitigation projects had begun within another year.

Instead of asking how can we prevent or reduce flooding, Resilient Houston looks at the City through the other end of the telescope. It asks how can we prevent or reduce the impacts of flooding on the poor, the elderly, the mentally ill, the hungry and more. Noble sentiments, no doubt. I have no quarrel with them. But from a pragmatic point of view, how do you address such a broad agenda? Wouldn’t it be easier just to reduce the flooding? Where do you find the money to address all those related issues? How do you measure results?

Boiling the Ocean

Business people have their own term for such overly ambitious plans: “boiling the ocean.” By attempting the impossible, no matter how noble, ocean-boiling exercises collapse from their own weight.

Yes, it’s good to have a vision for where you want to go.

But does the City of Houston really need to solve the problems of climate change, income inequality, disparities in health care, housing affordability, urban sprawl, carbon neutrality, homelessness, full employment, aging infrastructure, public transportation, wealth generation, and street crime in order to repair a sewer?

Why is it necessary for the City to invest in local arts, build “community cohesion,” and celebrate “neighborhood identity” to clean out a ditch?

You get the idea. It’s as if every group in the City needing a handout saw “resilience” as a meal ticket. “Yeah, let’s hitch our wagons to that star. Sink our hooks into that. That’s good for a grant or two.”

Making Room for Water

On page 99, the report finally declares that we need to “Make Room for Water.” Now, they’re talking! As long as it’s not in my living room.

This report has plenty of good ideas. Goal #11 says, “We will modernize Houston infrastructure to address the challenges of the future.” Gee. Where have I heard that before?

Wait! Ten years ago. The drainage fee. Prop A. A billion dollars later, where has the money gone? Why are the ditches still clogged?

Positives in Plan

Maybe it’s unfair to ask for an actionable plan and accountability in a report like this.

It does lay out an attractive vision for the City’s future.

After all, if you don’t know where you’re going, you’ll never get there. And it’s hard to have a beating heart and not feel for the people highlighted in this report.

Shortcomings of Plan

On the other hand, Resilient Houston has everything but a Gannt chart (showing a project’s key steps and critical path), a deadline and a budget.

Meanwhile, I know of hundreds of people in Elm Grove who flooded twice in five months last year. They just need someone to make Perry Homes get off its ass and build some detention ponds. They don’t have time to “Leverage Smart City Investments to Address our Most Critical Resilience Challenges” (Section 43), one of which is street flooding.

And if the City really wants to “Enable Houstonians to Make Mobility Choices that Improve Well-Being and Reduce the Cost of Living” (Section 50), the City could start by keeping floodwater out of people’s crankcases.

New vehicle destroyed by May 7th flood in Elm Grove.
Another new vehicle belonging to same family destroyed by Imelda flood in Elm Grove just five months later.
Vehicle destroyed in Imelda flood on Village Springs in Elm Grove. The street was full of such vehicles. This family lost two also.

Harris County Flood Control estimates that more than 300,000 vehicles flooded across Harris County during Harvey. Many were at homes, parking garages, and dealership lots.

In May of 2019, the average price of a new car purchased in the U.S. climbed to $36,718. Replacing those 300,000 vehicles cost $11 billion.

If you want to reduce transportation costs for Houstonians, wouldn’t that be a good place to start? Like NOW. Do we really need to drag bike lanes and sidewalks into this debate? Yikes.

It took the City nearly 900 days to produce this report.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/19/2020

904 Days after Hurricane Harvey