On March 6, I flew over the Union Pacific bridge repairs near 59 and the West Fork and noticed some splashing I could not explain. I’ve been on a fruitless search for answers ever since. So now I’m enlisting your help. But first a quick update on the status of repairs.
Update on Repairs
Not much had visibly changed since the previous month on February 23rd. I observed that:
The north side of the river looked considerably cleaner.
Virtually all supports for the north side of the temporary bridge had been removed.
Virtually all of the old supports between the new supports for the main bridge were gone.
The big red crane was starting to retreat back to the southern side of the river.
Some sort of underwater cutting torch operation was in progress.
Pontoon-based lifting equipment was retrieving cut pipe and old cement from the river bottom.
Incremental changes since Feb. 23 flyover. This and all photos below taken March 6.
Enlargement Reveals Splashing
However, when I downloaded the images at home and reviewed them on a big screen, I saw something I could not explain. I saw a giant splash in the water under the bridge that went up at least 10 feet. At first I thought something fell from the bridge. But there was nothing on the bridge as you can see above.
Strange splash in water near old support. Caught at 1/8000th of a second from a helicopter 250 feet away.
Further review of the images reveal tanks of industrial gas, likely used for underwater cutting torches.
Tanks of what might have been acetylene for underwater torches.
Then I noticed the same splash in the same place in dozens of other images as the helicopter circled around the bridge.
Similar splash in same spot several seconds later from different camera position. Also at 1/8000th of a second.
Something falling could have created the splash in one frame. But not multiple frames. Especially since I was shooting at 1/8000th of a second to minimize vibration from the helicopter.
Shot from other side of bridge about 30 seconds later.
The series of shots shows continuous splashing in a virtually identical pattern.
26 Frames Taken 3 Seconds Apart Show Similar Splash
It took almost a minute and a half to circle the operation. During that time, I took 26 shots. Each shot shows water “erupting” in the same place, the same pattern, and to roughly the same height. All while workers sat by unconcerned!
So this was a normal part of the operation. But what caused it? I’m not familiar with underwater cutting. However, I’m guessing, with all the offshore experts in Houston, someone can explain it.
Photo of same site when workers no present by Mike Combat Wilcox.
Mike Combat Wilcox sent me this image from his boat when workers were not present. No workers. No splash. Hmmmm. The mystery deepens.
Two Ways to Help
A hearty corona-virus-free handshake through social media to anyone who has the answer. I will publish it…with a credit if you can explain it.
And let’s have some fun while we’re at it. We need more of that these days.
I’ll also publish a separate list of “creative” answers from the clueless (like me). Try to make people laugh with those. For instance, were the splashes actually “oil company stocks taking a nosedive during corona week”? You get the idea. Have fun people! If you can. I know its painful.
Posted by Bob Rehak with image from Mike Combat Wilcox on 3/18/2020
932 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Splash1.jpg?fit=1200%2C893&ssl=18931200adminadmin2020-03-18 21:12:492020-03-18 22:13:42Help Wanted: Can You Explain This Strange Splashing in Water Near RR Bridge Repairs?
It all seemed somewhat academic at the time – unless you previously flooded from upstream development. Then along came Imelda. The absence of functioning detention ponds on Perry Homes’ Woodridge Village property underscored the need for adequate detention for the second time in five months when hundreds of homes downstream in Kingwood flooded.
The engineering company for the developer, Aliana, claims their calculations show that floodwater from Artavia will beat the peak of a flood to the West Fork by 35 hours. Dasa Crowell, PE, LJA’s Project Manager for Hydrology and Hydraulics, thus concluded, “This leads us to a conclusion that the peak flows generated by the runoff from project drainage area will have no impact on the WFSJR under proposed conditions, therefore detention is not required.” See page 56 of this PDF.
In fairness, the development does include a retention pond in Section 1 labeled as a detention/amenity pond. However, aerial photos show that it has only a few feet of excess storage capacity above its normal water surface elevation. See the plans here. It’s certainly not going to hold back a 100-year rain falling over 2200 acres.
Little Buck Amenity Facility/Pond. Note that as-built conditions appear smaller than plans.
Engineers seem to be relying on drainage channels to act as their detention basins, but as we will see, that comes with some risk. And one potentially bad assumption may invalidate the whole concept.
Because detention costs money and limits the number of salable lots, developers try to get their water to the river as quickly as possible so they can “beat the peak.” Of course, racing to get water to the river in a flood is the exact opposite of what you want to happen if you are a downstream resident. Normally, you want developers to hold water back as long as practical so as not to overwhelm downstream channel capacity.
Wilds said in part, “The analysis … demonstrates that the peak flow from the developed tract will pass through the downstream cross-section approximately 35 hours prior to the peak flow from the upstream watershed. The report indicates that the 10-year, 25-year and 100-year events were analyzed and concludes that the runoff from the project drainage area will have no impact to the San Jacinto River under proposed conditions.”
“Based on this information, this office offers no objection to the analysis as presented. Storm water detention will not be required for this development as long as the developed flows up to and including the 100-year event can be adequately conveyed to the San Jacinto River.” For the full text, see page 51 of this PDF.
The Executive Summary of the most recent update of the drainage impact analysis for Artavia states, “The November 2014 memorandum documents the analysis supporting no detention requirement; this analysis provides calculations showing that the proposed Star Ridge Ranch development (as it was then called) drainage system will safely convey the rainfall runoff for rainfall events up to and including the one-percent annual chance (100-year) storm event.”
Similarities Between Woodridge Village and Artavia
Finally, LJA pushed both the Woodridge and Artavia plans through the MoCo Engineers office right before the drainage criteria manual was about to be updated again with more stringent requirements.
LJA submitted both drainage analyses for MoCo approval within approximately a year of Hurricane Harvey before flood maps, rainfall statistics, drainage criteria, and construction standards were updated.
LJA Engineering was not only playing beat the peak, it was playing beat the clock again. This will be the first of several posts on Artavia. More news to follow.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/17/2020
931 Days after Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/20200306-RJR_8998.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-03-17 21:29:282020-03-17 22:31:30LJA Engineers 2200-Acre Artavia Development in Montgomery County Without Detention Ponds
Those same sources also told me that Perry Homes started out asking for their purchase price of the land PLUS the money they spent partially developing it. However, as I reported last week, based on the newspaper articles, that appears to have changed at this point.
Woodridge Village after the May 7, 2019, flood
Full Text of Perry Homes’ Fact Sheet about Land Sale
Below is the full text of a “fact sheet” along with a link to the original PDF Perry Homes PR people allegedly sent out about the sale of their Woodridge Village Property in Montgomery County. I say allegedly because I have never known a public-relations person to put out information that is not on a letterhead and without contact information.
“FACT SHEET ON WOODRIDGE VILLAGE”
“For several months, we have been in discussions with Harris County to sell the +/- 268-acre Woodridge Village site in Montgomery County so that it can be used for regional detention. Our offer price is our original acquisition cost of $14,019,316.85. This sale would represent a loss of the development costs we have already spent, which are over $9 million to date. We would also be foregoing the future profits we would earn from building and selling homes.”
“The draft study performed by LJA Engineering advised this regional detention concept would remove more than 800 homes from the 500-year floodplain and provide additional flood mitigation for hundreds of other area homes. We are willing to absorb the losses referenced in the paragraph above because of the enormous benefit it will offer to downstream residents in Houston and Harris County.”
“If the property is not going to be used for regional detention, we plan to either develop it for Perry Homes or sell it. Work is ready to start on the remaining detention facilities. We have also listed it for sale to other developers at an initial asking price of $23 million, which will increase as additional funds are expended.”
“We first requested to meet with Harris County back in October 2019, and our first face to face meeting occurred on November 8th. At the request of Harris County officials, we even delayed the construction bid process so the commissioners could consider our proposal in executive session. After the executive session, we were informed that Harris County needed the City of Houston to partner with them to make the project occur. However, we have been informed the city is not looking to partner with the county on this project. In any event, we are concerned about delaying improvements any longer. If, by March 31st, we do not have reason to believe a definitive agreement for regional detention is likely, we will move forward with the remaining infrastructure and continue to entertain private market interest in the property.”
In my opinion, there were four key pieces of new news in this when its was released.
First, Perry Homes has dropped its asking price by no longer demanding to recoup its development costs.
Second, Perry Homes’ supplier, LJA Engineering, has determined that turning the property into regional detention could mitigate flooding.
Third, Perry Homes is already trying to sell the property on the open market.
Fourth, Perry Homes has given Harris County a deadline to make a decision – March 31, 2020.
Reaction to the News
Dropping the asking price shows that Kathy Perry Britton has not become totally untethered from reality. However, it still seems high for someone trying to sell the Titanic with an iceberg sticking out of the side of it.
I wish LJA had told Perry Homes the property needed to become regional detention BEFORE Perry Homes bought the property. Duh!
Good luck, Kathy Perry Britton, with trying to sell this property on the open market. With oil prices below $30, the stock market gyrating wildly, 401K’s losing value, and businesses laying off employees, not many people will rush out to buy homes in the immediate future. Lest we forget, in 1985 when oil prices dropped to $35, housing values in Houston collapsed 50%.
Definition of Chutzpah: Perry Homes
Threatening the one potential buyer with a deadline shows, in my opinion, an incredible amount of chutzpah, as my Jewish friends say. Chutzpah (ho͝otspə) in the original Yiddish sense has a strongly negative connotation. It means “insolence,” “cheek,” “incredible gall” or “audacity.” However, since entering English, the word has taken on a broader, more positive meaning. Today, in the business world it usually means the amount of courage that a person has.
Leo Rosten in The Joys of Yiddish defines the term as “that quality enshrined in a man who, having killed his mother and father, throws himself on the mercy of the court because he is an orphan.”
For Perry Homes to put a deadline on this deal shows incredible chutzpah – especially when the world has become focused on the corona pandemic. It shows a similar and scary disconnectedness.
However, I must admit that everyone wants Perry Homes to do something with this property quickly. And it hardly seems fair to make them invest more money in it if Flood Control is going to buy it tomorrow.
An Offer to Perry Homes
So Kathy, I will make you a deal. I’ll buy Woodridge Village for a dollar. Then you can save face and say you dumped the property for 100 times what it was worth … before it flooded again in the spring rains. But the best part … you can take a $23 million tax deduction and make almost as much money as you would have if you had sold it in the first place. Boom! Done. You ditched that dog! You’re a hero again.
Woodridge Village after May flood.Saving money on earth moving by letting nature do it for you.
If they sell it to me, maybe I will get into the mud spa business.
Posted by Bob Rehak with Jeff Miller’s Titanic line
930 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 179 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/DirtyPipe_01.jpg?fit=1500%2C1024&ssl=110241500adminadmin2020-03-16 12:34:012020-03-16 16:08:27Perry Homes Says “Now or Never”: Selling the Titanic With an Iceberg Sticking Out of the Hull
Help Wanted: Can You Explain This Strange Splashing in Water Near RR Bridge Repairs?
On March 6, I flew over the Union Pacific bridge repairs near 59 and the West Fork and noticed some splashing I could not explain. I’ve been on a fruitless search for answers ever since. So now I’m enlisting your help. But first a quick update on the status of repairs.
Update on Repairs
Not much had visibly changed since the previous month on February 23rd. I observed that:
Enlargement Reveals Splashing
However, when I downloaded the images at home and reviewed them on a big screen, I saw something I could not explain. I saw a giant splash in the water under the bridge that went up at least 10 feet. At first I thought something fell from the bridge. But there was nothing on the bridge as you can see above.
Further review of the images reveal tanks of industrial gas, likely used for underwater cutting torches.
Then I noticed the same splash in the same place in dozens of other images as the helicopter circled around the bridge.
Something falling could have created the splash in one frame. But not multiple frames. Especially since I was shooting at 1/8000th of a second to minimize vibration from the helicopter.
The series of shots shows continuous splashing in a virtually identical pattern.
26 Frames Taken 3 Seconds Apart Show Similar Splash
It took almost a minute and a half to circle the operation. During that time, I took 26 shots. Each shot shows water “erupting” in the same place, the same pattern, and to roughly the same height. All while workers sat by unconcerned!
So this was a normal part of the operation. But what caused it? I’m not familiar with underwater cutting. However, I’m guessing, with all the offshore experts in Houston, someone can explain it.
Mike Combat Wilcox sent me this image from his boat when workers were not present. No workers. No splash. Hmmmm. The mystery deepens.
Two Ways to Help
A hearty corona-virus-free handshake through social media to anyone who has the answer. I will publish it…with a credit if you can explain it.
And let’s have some fun while we’re at it. We need more of that these days.
I’ll also publish a separate list of “creative” answers from the clueless (like me). Try to make people laugh with those. For instance, were the splashes actually “oil company stocks taking a nosedive during corona week”? You get the idea. Have fun people! If you can. I know its painful.
On a More Serious Note
Here’s another wide shot that shows the progress of bridge re-construction. Remember, the goal: widen supports so trees don’t get caught in them during the next flood.
But widening supports requires removing the old ones. Piece by piece. That’s where the cutting and pulling comes in.
If you have possible explanations (real or humorous), please reply through the contact page on ReduceFlooding.com.
Posted by Bob Rehak with image from Mike Combat Wilcox on 3/18/2020
932 Days after Hurricane Harvey
LJA Engineers 2200-Acre Artavia Development in Montgomery County Without Detention Ponds
Last August, I posted about a loophole in Montgomery County Flood Plain regulations. It allowed all developers who could prove they were “beating the peak” of a flood to bypass the requirement for detention ponds. Montgomery County Commissioners decided to leave the loophole open. They said, “We don’t have a flooding problem.”
Giant Development Exploits Detention Loophole
It all seemed somewhat academic at the time – unless you previously flooded from upstream development. Then along came Imelda. The absence of functioning detention ponds on Perry Homes’ Woodridge Village property underscored the need for adequate detention for the second time in five months when hundreds of homes downstream in Kingwood flooded.
Artavia straddles FM1314 south of 242.
The engineering company for the developer, Aliana, claims their calculations show that floodwater from Artavia will beat the peak of a flood to the West Fork by 35 hours. Dasa Crowell, PE, LJA’s Project Manager for Hydrology and Hydraulics, thus concluded, “This leads us to a conclusion that the peak flows generated by the runoff from project drainage area will have no impact on the WFSJR under proposed conditions, therefore detention is not required.” See page 56 of this PDF.
In fairness, the development does include a retention pond in Section 1 labeled as a detention/amenity pond. However, aerial photos show that it has only a few feet of excess storage capacity above its normal water surface elevation. See the plans here. It’s certainly not going to hold back a 100-year rain falling over 2200 acres.
Engineers seem to be relying on drainage channels to act as their detention basins, but as we will see, that comes with some risk. And one potentially bad assumption may invalidate the whole concept.
Problems with Beat the Peak
Because detention costs money and limits the number of salable lots, developers try to get their water to the river as quickly as possible so they can “beat the peak.” Of course, racing to get water to the river in a flood is the exact opposite of what you want to happen if you are a downstream resident. Normally, you want developers to hold water back as long as practical so as not to overwhelm downstream channel capacity.
LJA developed the Artavia River Impact Analysis in 2014 (see page 60). Based on LJA’s assurances, Dan Wilds, then MoCo’s assistant county engineer issued a letter of “no objection.”
“No Impact” So No Detention Requirement
Wilds said in part, “The analysis … demonstrates that the peak flow from the developed tract will pass through the downstream cross-section approximately 35 hours prior to the peak flow from the upstream watershed. The report indicates that the 10-year, 25-year and 100-year events were analyzed and concludes that the runoff from the project drainage area will have no impact to the San Jacinto River under proposed conditions.”
“Based on this information, this office offers no objection to the analysis as presented. Storm water detention will not be required for this development as long as the developed flows up to and including the 100-year event can be adequately conveyed to the San Jacinto River.” For the full text, see page 51 of this PDF.
The Executive Summary of the most recent update of the drainage impact analysis for Artavia states, “The November 2014 memorandum documents the analysis supporting no detention requirement; this analysis provides calculations showing that the proposed Star Ridge Ranch development (as it was then called) drainage system will safely convey the rainfall runoff for rainfall events up to and including the one-percent annual chance (100-year) storm event.”
Similarities Between Woodridge Village and Artavia
Please note that both of these analyses base their conclusions on pre-Atlas-14 rainfall statistics and therefore may understate drainage requirements significantly by up to 40%. LJA did the same with Woodridge Village.
Also note two other similarities with the LJA analysis for Woodridge Village, Perry Homes’ disaster-movie-in-the-making project.
For its modeling, LJA used something called the Clark’s Unit Hydrograph. Their reports never mention the NRCS method specified in the current Montgomery County Drainage Criteria Manual. The use of Clark’s methodology, which minimizes runoff estimates, has become a bone of contention in the Elm Grove lawsuits.
Finally, LJA pushed both the Woodridge and Artavia plans through the MoCo Engineers office right before the drainage criteria manual was about to be updated again with more stringent requirements.
LJA Engineering was not only playing beat the peak, it was playing beat the clock again. This will be the first of several posts on Artavia. More news to follow.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/17/2020
931 Days after Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Perry Homes Says “Now or Never”: Selling the Titanic With an Iceberg Sticking Out of the Hull
Last week, the Houston Chronicle and Community Impact both ran stories about Perry Home’s potential sale of the Woodridge Village property. That property has been implicated in the flooding of Elm Grove twice last year. Sources who wish to remain anonymous have told me that Perry does NOT WANT to develop the property. They would prefer to sell it.
Those same sources also told me that Perry Homes started out asking for their purchase price of the land PLUS the money they spent partially developing it. However, as I reported last week, based on the newspaper articles, that appears to have changed at this point.
Full Text of Perry Homes’ Fact Sheet about Land Sale
Below is the full text of a “fact sheet” along with a link to the original PDF Perry Homes PR people allegedly sent out about the sale of their Woodridge Village Property in Montgomery County. I say allegedly because I have never known a public-relations person to put out information that is not on a letterhead and without contact information.
“FACT SHEET ON WOODRIDGE VILLAGE”
“For several months, we have been in discussions with Harris County to sell the +/- 268-acre Woodridge Village site in Montgomery County so that it can be used for regional detention. Our offer price is our original acquisition cost of $14,019,316.85. This sale would represent a loss of the development costs we have already spent, which are over $9 million to date. We would also be foregoing the future profits we would earn from building and selling homes.”
“The draft study performed by LJA Engineering advised this regional detention concept would remove more than 800 homes from the 500-year floodplain and provide additional flood mitigation for hundreds of other area homes. We are willing to absorb the losses referenced in the paragraph above because of the enormous benefit it will offer to downstream residents in Houston and Harris County.”
“If the property is not going to be used for regional detention, we plan to either develop it for Perry Homes or sell it. Work is ready to start on the remaining detention facilities. We have also listed it for sale to other developers at an initial asking price of $23 million, which will increase as additional funds are expended.”
“We first requested to meet with Harris County back in October 2019, and our first face to face meeting occurred on November 8th. At the request of Harris County officials, we even delayed the construction bid process so the commissioners could consider our proposal in executive session. After the executive session, we were informed that Harris County needed the City of Houston to partner with them to make the project occur. However, we have been informed the city is not looking to partner with the county on this project. In any event, we are concerned about delaying improvements any longer. If, by March 31st, we do not have reason to believe a definitive agreement for regional detention is likely, we will move forward with the remaining infrastructure and continue to entertain private market interest in the property.”
For a printable PDF of the fact sheet, click here.
Key Pieces of New News in Fact Sheet
In my opinion, there were four key pieces of new news in this when its was released.
Reaction to the News
I wish LJA had told Perry Homes the property needed to become regional detention BEFORE Perry Homes bought the property. Duh!
Good luck, Kathy Perry Britton, with trying to sell this property on the open market. With oil prices below $30, the stock market gyrating wildly, 401K’s losing value, and businesses laying off employees, not many people will rush out to buy homes in the immediate future. Lest we forget, in 1985 when oil prices dropped to $35, housing values in Houston collapsed 50%.
Definition of Chutzpah: Perry Homes
Threatening the one potential buyer with a deadline shows, in my opinion, an incredible amount of chutzpah, as my Jewish friends say. Chutzpah (ho͝otspə) in the original Yiddish sense has a strongly negative connotation. It means “insolence,” “cheek,” “incredible gall” or “audacity.” However, since entering English, the word has taken on a broader, more positive meaning. Today, in the business world it usually means the amount of courage that a person has.
For Perry Homes to put a deadline on this deal shows incredible chutzpah – especially when the world has become focused on the corona pandemic. It shows a similar and scary disconnectedness.
However, I must admit that everyone wants Perry Homes to do something with this property quickly. And it hardly seems fair to make them invest more money in it if Flood Control is going to buy it tomorrow.
An Offer to Perry Homes
So Kathy, I will make you a deal. I’ll buy Woodridge Village for a dollar. Then you can save face and say you dumped the property for 100 times what it was worth … before it flooded again in the spring rains. But the best part … you can take a $23 million tax deduction and make almost as much money as you would have if you had sold it in the first place. Boom! Done. You ditched that dog! You’re a hero again.
If they sell it to me, maybe I will get into the mud spa business.
Posted by Bob Rehak with Jeff Miller’s Titanic line
930 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 179 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.