After predicting that the 2020 hurricane season would be slightly above average earlier in the year, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) now predicts the season will be extremely active. An NHC outlook released Thursday indicates this season could almost double the average.
NHC predicts 19 to 25 named storms, though they do not predict how many will make landfall. Of those, NHC also predicts 7 to 11 will become hurricanes and 3 to 6 will become major hurricanes.
Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August, and the ninth named storm typically does not form until October 4. An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5).
Factors Behind Change
Current oceanic and atmospheric conditions that make an “extremely active” hurricane season possible are:
Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea
Reduced vertical wind shear
Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds
An enhanced west African monsoon
Ongoing warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which reappeared in 1995 and has been favoring more active hurricane seasons since that time.
Another contributing climate factor this year is the possibility of La Nina developing in the months ahead. Indicative of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean, La Nina can further weaken the wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storms to develop and intensify.
Underscores Need for Preparedness
Said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. “It is now more important than ever to stay informed with our forecasts, have a preparedness plan, and heed guidance from local emergency management officials.”
“This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “We encourage all Americans to do their part by getting prepared, remaining vigilant, and being ready to take action when necessary.”
Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest about tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/7/2020 based on predictions by the NHC
1074 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/GRAPHIC-UPDATE-2020-Hurricane-Outlook-piechart-080320-3840x2388_0.jpg?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=17421200adminadmin2020-08-06 18:38:162020-08-06 18:46:38National Hurricane Center Increases Prediction for 2020
This morning in a special meeting, Harris County Commissioners debated whether to raise taxes BEFORE they had a certified appraisal from the Harris County Appraisal District.
They chose to take no action for the time being.
Request by Budget Director
The first agenda item said, “Request by Budget Management for discussion and determination if the Court would like (1) to proceed with initial consideration of proposed property tax rates based on the July 24th Harris County Appraisal District (HCAD) estimate or (2) to take no action and wait to propose rates based on the Certified Appraisal Roll expected from HCAD in late August.
Commissioners Chose Option 2
The commissioners chose option 2, i.e., to take no action. Much of the debate had to do with accuracy. The budget director outlined several different scenarios that called for different levels of tax increases. One even was based on holding the tax rate constant.
But at least one scenario called for a tax increase that would have required voter approval in November. Getting the increase on the ballot, however, would have required making a decision before August 18 and the completion of the certified appraisal.
The agenda item refers to “late August” for the completion of the certified appraisal. Those concerned about a potential tax increase should watch the calendar for the Harris County Commissioners Court.
A portion of the debate and one call-in comment focused on the economic hardships that people are laboring under right now. The owner of a Chinese restaurant downtown said that her business was only 30% of the normal level. She and her family have been in business for more than 50 years. She said that they might not even be able to make their current tax payments and also said that she could not handle an increase.
This argument set the tone for the discussion. Several commissioners frequently eat at the restaurant.
At the end of the day, the commissioners voted not to take any action until they knew exactly what the tax base was. They feared raising the taxes too much or too little.
The County has not yet published the different budget scenarios considered in the meeting.
County Will Fight to Include Non-Citizens in Population Counts
The second agenda item stated: “Request by the County Attorney for authorization to file on behalf of the County friend of the court briefs and join in existing/future litigation that challenges federal efforts to exclude non-citizens in population counts when legislative boundaries are redrawn and to further authorize the County Attorney to engage Special Counsel at no cost to the County.”
A majority of the Court voted to approve this. It means the county will fight to include non-citizens in official census counts. That means, when legislative districts are redrawn (which they are after every census), Texas could wind up with more representatives in Congress rather than less. It also means that the composition of the congressional delegation could shift.
Uncertainty Surrounds Estimates of Non-Citizens
No one knows with certainty at this instant how many non-citizens live in Harris County.
So if the Migration Policy Institute estimate is correct, AND if Harris County is successful, the inclusion of non-citizens won’t be enough to create a new district. However, it will shift some boundaries.
The Texas Secretary of State estimates that as many as 100,000 residents statewide many not have attained citizenship. However, officials are skeptical of the estimates. They are based on the number of people who did not have citizenship when they applied for drivers’ licenses. Many may have attained citizenship after applying for the licenses.
So no one really knows at this point how the inclusion of non-citizens could affect congressional boundaries.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/6/2020
1073 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Agenda-8.6.20.jpg?fit=1200%2C796&ssl=17961200adminadmin2020-08-06 13:32:092020-08-06 13:32:21Harris County Commissioners Vote to Take No Action on Raising Taxes at This Time
Under the cover of COVID, Harris County Commissioners will consider a tax increase at a special meeting today.
Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo conducting Monday’s special meeting.
Tax Increase: #1 on Agenda
Item #1 on the agenda says: Request by Budget Management for discussion and determination if the Court would like (1) to proceed with initial consideration of proposed property tax rates based on the July 24th Harris County Appraisal District (HCAD) estimate or (2) to take no action and wait to propose rates based on the Certified Appraisal Roll expected from HCAD in late August.”
If you got a small black and white post card in the mail last week from HarrisPropertyTaxes.org, this is what it was about.
Reapportionment: #2 on Agenda
Item #2 on the agenda also promises to be a lively discussion: Request by the County Attorney for authorization to file on behalf of the County friend of the court briefs and join in existing/future litigation that challenges federal efforts to exclude non-citizens in population counts when legislative boundaries are redrawn and to further authorize the County Attorney to engage Special Counsel at no cost to the County.”
Monday Special Meeting Considered Changing Election Process
This follows on the heels of another special meeting on Monday. That meeting discussed changing the election process to bring it under the influence of politically appointed, not elected officials.
All these changes follow several decisions to replace high-level county employees with considerable experience. One for instance, was in finance.
Major changes are afoot in Harris County. And none of the mainstream media seem to have the bandwidth to cover the story.
So keep your head up.
How to View
To view archived videos of commissioners’ meetings, click here.
To view archived agendas of commissioners’ meetings, click here.
To view meetings live and in progress, click here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/6/2020
1073 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Hidalgo.jpg?fit=1200%2C808&ssl=18081200adminadmin2020-08-06 09:43:262020-08-06 09:43:44Harris County Commissioners to Consider Tax Increase at Special Meeting Today
National Hurricane Center Increases Prediction for 2020
After predicting that the 2020 hurricane season would be slightly above average earlier in the year, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) now predicts the season will be extremely active. An NHC outlook released Thursday indicates this season could almost double the average.
NHC predicts 19 to 25 named storms, though they do not predict how many will make landfall. Of those, NHC also predicts 7 to 11 will become hurricanes and 3 to 6 will become major hurricanes.
Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August, and the ninth named storm typically does not form until October 4. An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5).
Factors Behind Change
Current oceanic and atmospheric conditions that make an “extremely active” hurricane season possible are:
Another contributing climate factor this year is the possibility of La Nina developing in the months ahead. Indicative of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean, La Nina can further weaken the wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storms to develop and intensify.
Underscores Need for Preparedness
Said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. “It is now more important than ever to stay informed with our forecasts, have a preparedness plan, and heed guidance from local emergency management officials.”
“This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “We encourage all Americans to do their part by getting prepared, remaining vigilant, and being ready to take action when necessary.”
Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest about tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/7/2020 based on predictions by the NHC
1074 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Harris County Commissioners Vote to Take No Action on Raising Taxes at This Time
This morning in a special meeting, Harris County Commissioners debated whether to raise taxes BEFORE they had a certified appraisal from the Harris County Appraisal District.
Request by Budget Director
The first agenda item said, “Request by Budget Management for discussion and determination if the Court would like (1) to proceed with initial consideration of proposed property tax rates based on the July 24th Harris County Appraisal District (HCAD) estimate or (2) to take no action and wait to propose rates based on the Certified Appraisal Roll expected from HCAD in late August.
Commissioners Chose Option 2
The commissioners chose option 2, i.e., to take no action. Much of the debate had to do with accuracy. The budget director outlined several different scenarios that called for different levels of tax increases. One even was based on holding the tax rate constant.
But at least one scenario called for a tax increase that would have required voter approval in November. Getting the increase on the ballot, however, would have required making a decision before August 18 and the completion of the certified appraisal.
The agenda item refers to “late August” for the completion of the certified appraisal. Those concerned about a potential tax increase should watch the calendar for the Harris County Commissioners Court.
Commissioners have scheduled two more meetings for August on the 11th and 25th.
Debate Focused on Economic Hardship
A portion of the debate and one call-in comment focused on the economic hardships that people are laboring under right now. The owner of a Chinese restaurant downtown said that her business was only 30% of the normal level. She and her family have been in business for more than 50 years. She said that they might not even be able to make their current tax payments and also said that she could not handle an increase.
This argument set the tone for the discussion. Several commissioners frequently eat at the restaurant.
At the end of the day, the commissioners voted not to take any action until they knew exactly what the tax base was. They feared raising the taxes too much or too little.
The County has not yet published the different budget scenarios considered in the meeting.
County Will Fight to Include Non-Citizens in Population Counts
The second agenda item stated: “Request by the County Attorney for authorization to file on behalf of the County friend of the court briefs and join in existing/future litigation that challenges federal efforts to exclude non-citizens in population counts when legislative boundaries are redrawn and to further authorize the County Attorney to engage Special Counsel at no cost to the County.”
A majority of the Court voted to approve this. It means the county will fight to include non-citizens in official census counts. That means, when legislative districts are redrawn (which they are after every census), Texas could wind up with more representatives in Congress rather than less. It also means that the composition of the congressional delegation could shift.
Uncertainty Surrounds Estimates of Non-Citizens
No one knows with certainty at this instant how many non-citizens live in Harris County.
The US Census Bureau estimates that 26.1% of the population is foreign born, but makes no estimate of how many foreign-born residents have attained citizenship.
A group called the Migration Policy Institute estimates that 412,000 people in Harris County are unauthorized.
Congressional Districts currently average approximately 711,000 people.
So if the Migration Policy Institute estimate is correct, AND if Harris County is successful, the inclusion of non-citizens won’t be enough to create a new district. However, it will shift some boundaries.
The Texas Secretary of State estimates that as many as 100,000 residents statewide many not have attained citizenship. However, officials are skeptical of the estimates. They are based on the number of people who did not have citizenship when they applied for drivers’ licenses. Many may have attained citizenship after applying for the licenses.
So no one really knows at this point how the inclusion of non-citizens could affect congressional boundaries.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/6/2020
1073 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Harris County Commissioners to Consider Tax Increase at Special Meeting Today
Under the cover of COVID, Harris County Commissioners will consider a tax increase at a special meeting today.
Tax Increase: #1 on Agenda
Item #1 on the agenda says: Request by Budget Management for discussion and determination if the Court would like (1) to proceed with initial consideration of proposed property tax rates based on the July 24th Harris County Appraisal District (HCAD) estimate or (2) to take no action and wait to propose rates based on the Certified Appraisal Roll expected from HCAD in late August.”
If you got a small black and white post card in the mail last week from HarrisPropertyTaxes.org, this is what it was about.
Reapportionment: #2 on Agenda
Item #2 on the agenda also promises to be a lively discussion: Request by the County Attorney for authorization to file on behalf of the County friend of the court briefs and join in existing/future litigation that challenges federal efforts to exclude non-citizens in population counts when legislative boundaries are redrawn and to further authorize the County Attorney to engage Special Counsel at no cost to the County.”
Monday Special Meeting Considered Changing Election Process
This follows on the heels of another special meeting on Monday. That meeting discussed changing the election process to bring it under the influence of politically appointed, not elected officials.
All these changes follow several decisions to replace high-level county employees with considerable experience. One for instance, was in finance.
Major changes are afoot in Harris County. And none of the mainstream media seem to have the bandwidth to cover the story.
So keep your head up.
How to View
To view archived videos of commissioners’ meetings, click here.
To view archived agendas of commissioners’ meetings, click here.
To view meetings live and in progress, click here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/6/2020
1073 Days since Hurricane Harvey