Beta has turned toward the Texas coast. Adverse conditions will likely begin Sunday along coast and spread inland. The main forecast change since this morning? An increase in rainfall amounts, which could be significant. See rainfall section below.
A Flash Flood Watch will likely be issued on Sunday for the area.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Discussion
There has been little change in the overall organization of Beta today. Forecasters expect slow intensification as Beta approaches the TX coast.
Track:
There have been no significant changes in the track reasoning today and the official forecast remains similar from earlier this morning. With that said, there is some uncertainty on when Beta will turn toward the N and NE near the mid Tx coast early next week, but generally impacts will be the same for much of SE TX.
Intensity:
Given the lack of organization of the system and the lurking dry air to the west, it is now unlikely that Beta will attain hurricane intensity. The National Hurricane Center now keeps the system as a strong tropical storm as it approaches the TX coast. It should slowly as it moves NE or ENE up the coast.
Impacts
Storm Surge:
Water levels will rise along the upper TX coast beginning Saturday and worsen Sunday into Monday due to the expansion of the tropical storm force wind field. Expect swells reaching 15-25 feet over the NW Gulf. Four- to eight-foot waves could break on beaches. These large swells will lead to wave run up on top of the elevated tides.
Results:
Significant beach erosion
Damage to fragile dune systems.
Damage to coastal infrastructure
Inundation of low lying roads near the coast.
Once the water begins to rise on Saturday evening, some low lying areas may remain flooded into the middle of next week.
Overwash is likely on Hwy 87.
Ferry operations at both the Galveston-Bolivar and the Lynchburg sites may be impacted.
Rainfall:
While there is still some uncertainty, the storm could produce very heavy rainfall rates and amounts.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
The rainfall forecasts have been adjusted upward, even though some models suggest only meager amounts of rainfall with Beta. Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, currently predicts:
Coast: 12-18 inches
Coastal counties: 10-15 inches
South of I-10: 10-15 inches
South of Hwy 105: 6-10 inches
North of Hwy 105: 4-6 inches
Note that the rainfall amounts above are for a five-day total.
Given the forecast rainfall amounts…flooding of creeks and bayous across Harris County may flood depending on how the rain falls and how much falls at one time.
By Tuesday, when the ground is saturated, NOAA gives the Lake Houston Area a slight chance of flash flooding.
Six inches could fill smaller creeks; 7-8 inches could fill larger streams and bayous such as Buffalo.
Addicks and Barker Reservoirs are currently empty.
Winds:
Tropical storm force winds will be possible starting Sunday evening around Matagorda Bay with sustained 40mph winds likely spreading northward along the upper TX coast on Monday including Galveston Bay. Sustained winds of 55-65mph will spread up the TX coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Across Harris County wind will increase into the 25-35mph range on Monday and possibly 40-45mph range on Tuesday into Wednesday with higher gusts, especially near Galveston Bay.
Note: Tropical storm force winds will begin to reach the coast on Monday…well ahead of any landfall of the center…due to the expanding wind field. Tropical storm force winds now extend 175 miles outward from the center of the storm.
Prepare now for a long period of coastal flooding and periods of heavy rainfall.
Voluntary evacuations have been recommended for:
Western end of Galveston Island, west of the seawall
Bolivar Peninsula
Low-lying areas of Chamber, Brazoria and Matagorda Counties (outside levee protection)
Low-lying areas of Seabrook.
AlertHouston Recommends Taking These Steps Now
Ensure your family has 5-7 days of food, water, and necessary supplies.
This includes enough prescription medication for at least this duration, in case pharmacies and doctor’s offices are closed.
Consider the unique needs of small children, seniors, family members with access and functional needs, and pets.
Decide what you and your family will do if the storm impacts your area. Most City of Houston residents are not vulnerable to storm surge and do not need to evacuate before a hurricane or tropical storm. Vulnerable residents who require electricity may also consider evacuation in advance of a major storm. For a map of hurricane evacuation zones and mandatory evacuation areas, visit: houstonoem.org/hurricanes
Develop a family communication plan, so that you know who to check in with after a storm. Visit readyhoustontx.gov for more information on developing a plan.
Know how to turn off your utilities. This includes electricity, water, and gas. Only turn off gas if instructed by local officials or by CenterPoint Energy.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/19/2020 with data from the NHC, HCFCD, and City of Houston
1117 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 1 Year since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/210245WPCERO_sm.gif?fit=1090%2C692&ssl=16921090adminadmin2020-09-19 18:06:232020-09-19 18:07:07Beta Rainfall Estimates Increasing; 6-10 Inches Now Predicted for Lake Houston Area
As of 4am Saturday, 9/19/20 (the 1-year anniversary of Imelda), the National Hurricane Center issued:
Hurricane Watches for Texas coast from Port Aransas to High Island
Tropical Storm Watches east of High Island into Louisiana and from Port Aransas to the Rio Grande
Storm Surge Watches from Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including all inland bays.
Discussion
There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week. Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time and create life-threatening storm surge.
Lake Friday, a USAF mission found a stronger tropical storm with winds of 60mph and a fairly large area of 40-50mph winds. Ships and oil platforms in the north-central Gulf of Mexico have reported winds above 40mph. The wind field is starting to expand toward the north.
Track:
Beta is moving NNE at 12mph. Faster than expected. Beta will turn west around mid-day Saturday and decrease forward speed into early next week. This will bring Beta toward the middle Texas coast.
As Beta approaches the mid TX coast, weakening high pressure to the north will turn the storm toward the north and northeast. However, forecasters have lower-than-normal confidence as to when all this will happen.
The current National Hurricane Center forecast track is near the center of consensus for major global models, but shifts in this track will remain possible both toward the north or south.
Intensity:
Beta intensified despite wind shear. As Beta moves over very warm western Gulf of Mexico waters, intensification will likely continue for the 24-48 hours. NHC now forecasts Beta to become an 80mph hurricane. As Beta begins to turn northeast and skirt the middle and upper TX coast, the storm may weaken. Some uncertainty remains in the intensity forecast.
Tropical storm force winds will likely begin to arrive along the middle TX coast Sunday evening and spread northward into Matagorda Bay and along the upper TX coast by Monday. Hurricane conditions could reach the Matagorda Bay region on Tuesday.
Impacts
Storm Surge:
Water level rises along the upper TX coast will begin on Saturday and worsen Sunday into Monday due to the expansion of the tropical-storm-force wind field. This large wind field will also develop large swells over the NW Gulf of Mexico by Sunday into Monday with swells reaching 15-25 feet. On Sunday into Monday, expect 4-8 feet waves breaking on beaches. These large swells will lead to wave run up on top of elevated tides.
Large waves will accompany the higher tides. The prolonged nature of the event will result in significant beach erosion and damage to fragile dunes.
Expect inundation of low lying roads near the coast. Once the water begins to rise on Saturday evening, some low lying areas may remain flooded into the middle of next week.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Ferry operations at both the Galveston-Bolivar and the Lynchburg sites may be impacted.
For SE Harris County:
From Saturday night into next week, coastal flooding will be possible in El Lago, Nassau Bay, Shoreacres, Seabrook and portions of Baytown near Goose Creek and Cedar Bayou.
This includes all areas around:
Clear Lake
Along Taylor’s Bayou in Shoreacres and Taylor Lake Village
Around the San Jacinto Monument and Lynchburg Ferry landing
In Seabrook areas along and east of Toddville Rd and in the waterfront area east of HWY 146.
The lower San Jacinto River at Rio Villa and other low lying areas south of US HWY 90.
Low lying areas in Galena Park and Jacinto City near the Houston Ship Channel
Lower portions of Greens and Hunting Bayous south of I-10.
Most flooding will happen in streets, low marsh lands, roads near Galveston Bay and around Clear Lake and some subdivisions streets.
Wave action from ENE/E winds across Galveston Bay of 2-4 feet will be possible on top of these tides along the west side of Galveston Bay and 1-3 feet in Clear Lake which may damage docks, bulkheads, and moored vessels.
Rainfall
Rainfall will strongly depend on the track of Beta. Small changes could result in significant differences in rainfall amounts. Heaviest rains will likely be near the coast and offshore.
Any deviation of the track northward would bring the heavy rainfall further inland, likewise any south or east shift in the track would keep the heaviest rains off the coast.
Coast: 8-12 inches
Coastal counties: 6-8 inches
South of I-10: 4-6 inches
South of Hwy 105: 3-5 inches
North of Hwy 105: 1-3 inches
HCFCD models suggest that basin average rainfall totals of at least 6 inches would fill smaller creeks and bayous in Harris County (Willow Waterhole, Keegans Bayou, Willow Creek, Upper Little Cypress Creek).
Basin average amounts of 7-8 inches would fill Clear Creek, Hunting Bayou, Armand Bayou, Cypress Creek, Halls Bayou, Greens Bayou, White Oak Bayou, Buffalo Bayou, Cedar Bayou, and various smaller tributaries.
Addicks and Barker Reservoirs are currently empty.
Winds:
Tropical storm force winds may start Sunday evening around Matagorda Bay. Sustained 40mph winds likely spread northward along the upper TX coast on Monday including Galveston Bay.
Hurricane conditions will be possible near Matagorda Bay on Tuesday and across portions of coastal Matagorda, Brazoria, and Galveston Counties into Wednesday.
Across Harris County wind will increase into the 25-35mph range on Monday and possibly 40-50mph range on Tuesday into Wednesday with higher gusts, especially near Galveston Bay.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/19/2020at 4ambased on data from the National Hurricane Center and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.
1117 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 1 Year since Tropical Storm Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/image003.gif?fit=800%2C561&ssl=1561800adminadmin2020-09-19 04:20:102020-09-19 04:23:40Hurricane Watch for Port Aransas to High Island
Preparations for Prolonged Coastal Flooding and Potential Inland Rainfall Flooding Should Beginnow for Tropical Storm Beta.
As of 4PM CDT Friday, the National Hurricane Center predicts that storm surge, tropical storm and/or hurricane watches will likely be required for portions of the western Gulf coast tonight or on Saturday.
Forecast Track
Tropical Storm Beta is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general direction should last through Saturday. Late Saturday or Saturday night, the storm should begin a slow westward drift into early next week. After that, Beta should recurve to the northeast.
Cone of uncertainty for TS Beta. Every point within the cone has an equal chance of receiving a hit from the center of the storm.
Don’t Focus on Exact Track Yet
Do not focus on the exact forecast track for Tropical Storm Beta, especially at days 3 to 5, as a high degree of uncertainty remains.
Regardless the forecast track, the center of Beta will approach western coast of the Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Even if we don’t take a direct hit from Beta…
…Houston will likely be on the wet/dirty side of the storm.
10-20% Chance of Tropical Storm Winds for Houston
The Houston Area currently has a 10-20% chance of receiving tropical-storm force winds starting Sunday.
Probability of Houston receiving winds greater than 40 mph is 10-20%.Those winds could arrive as early as Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds have already increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Beta could reach near hurricane strength Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
Key Messages
According to the National Hurricane Center:
Beta should strengthen and possibly become a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office.
Beta could affect the Houston Area much of next week.
Impacts
Tides/Storm Surge:
Strong ENE/E winds will push sea water toward the coast. Expect seas to build into the 8-15 foot range and waves to run up along the coast.
Expect at least 4.0-5.0 feet seas above the barnacle level. They could even reach near 6.0 feet. Impacts begin around 4.5 ft at several locations along the upper TX coast.
Low lying roadways near the coast will likely flood at times of high tide and some locations could become isolated. Significant beach erosion is likely with elevated tides and large wave action lasting for several days and coastal infrastructure could be damaged. The expected tides on Sunday will likely be 1.5-2.5 feet higher than those experienced with Laura and Hanna.
DO NOT get caught off guard with the expected water level rise along the coast. Understand that low lying coastal roads may be inundated for a long period of time
Rainfall:
Squalls will increase in frequency and intensity into Sunday night and Monday and begin to spread farther inland. There will be a sharp cut off in the higher rainfall amounts from south to north over the area with amounts of 10-12 inches likely near the coast and even higher offshore. However, College Station will probably only see 1-3 inches.
Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner predicts 4-6 inches over Harris County.
These rainfall amounts will likely change
Winds:
Tropical storm force winds could arrive by Sunday evening and slowly spread NE Monday and Tuesday. It is possible that some locations could see 24-48 hours of sustained tropical storm force winds with the slow movement of the system.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/18/2020 based on input from the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
1116 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 365 Days after Tropical Storm Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/205430_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-09-18 17:36:062020-09-18 17:36:17Tropical Storm Beta Likely to Dump 4-6 Inches on Harris County, 10-12 Inches Near Coast
Beta Rainfall Estimates Increasing; 6-10 Inches Now Predicted for Lake Houston Area
Beta has turned toward the Texas coast. Adverse conditions will likely begin Sunday along coast and spread inland. The main forecast change since this morning? An increase in rainfall amounts, which could be significant. See rainfall section below.
Discussion
There has been little change in the overall organization of Beta today. Forecasters expect slow intensification as Beta approaches the TX coast.
Track:
There have been no significant changes in the track reasoning today and the official forecast remains similar from earlier this morning. With that said, there is some uncertainty on when Beta will turn toward the N and NE near the mid Tx coast early next week, but generally impacts will be the same for much of SE TX.
Intensity:
Given the lack of organization of the system and the lurking dry air to the west, it is now unlikely that Beta will attain hurricane intensity. The National Hurricane Center now keeps the system as a strong tropical storm as it approaches the TX coast. It should slowly as it moves NE or ENE up the coast.
Impacts
Storm Surge:
Water levels will rise along the upper TX coast beginning Saturday and worsen Sunday into Monday due to the expansion of the tropical storm force wind field. Expect swells reaching 15-25 feet over the NW Gulf. Four- to eight-foot waves could break on beaches. These large swells will lead to wave run up on top of the elevated tides.
Results:
Rainfall:
The rainfall forecasts have been adjusted upward, even though some models suggest only meager amounts of rainfall with Beta. Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, currently predicts:
Given the forecast rainfall amounts…flooding of creeks and bayous across Harris County may flood depending on how the rain falls and how much falls at one time.
Six inches could fill smaller creeks; 7-8 inches could fill larger streams and bayous such as Buffalo.
Addicks and Barker Reservoirs are currently empty.
Winds:
Tropical storm force winds will be possible starting Sunday evening around Matagorda Bay with sustained 40mph winds likely spreading northward along the upper TX coast on Monday including Galveston Bay. Sustained winds of 55-65mph will spread up the TX coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Across Harris County wind will increase into the 25-35mph range on Monday and possibly 40-45mph range on Tuesday into Wednesday with higher gusts, especially near Galveston Bay.
Note: Tropical storm force winds will begin to reach the coast on Monday…well ahead of any landfall of the center…due to the expanding wind field. Tropical storm force winds now extend 175 miles outward from the center of the storm.
Summary of Watches/Warnings In Effect
As of 4PM Saturday, 9/19/20:
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR:
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR:
Protective Actions
AlertHouston Recommends Taking These Steps Now
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/19/2020 with data from the NHC, HCFCD, and City of Houston
1117 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 1 Year since Imelda
Hurricane Watch for Port Aransas to High Island
As of 4am Saturday, 9/19/20 (the 1-year anniversary of Imelda), the National Hurricane Center issued:
Discussion
There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week. Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time and create life-threatening storm surge.
Lake Friday, a USAF mission found a stronger tropical storm with winds of 60mph and a fairly large area of 40-50mph winds. Ships and oil platforms in the north-central Gulf of Mexico have reported winds above 40mph. The wind field is starting to expand toward the north.
Track:
Beta is moving NNE at 12mph. Faster than expected. Beta will turn west around mid-day Saturday and decrease forward speed into early next week. This will bring Beta toward the middle Texas coast.
As Beta approaches the mid TX coast, weakening high pressure to the north will turn the storm toward the north and northeast. However, forecasters have lower-than-normal confidence as to when all this will happen.
The current National Hurricane Center forecast track is near the center of consensus for major global models, but shifts in this track will remain possible both toward the north or south.
Intensity:
Beta intensified despite wind shear. As Beta moves over very warm western Gulf of Mexico waters, intensification will likely continue for the 24-48 hours. NHC now forecasts Beta to become an 80mph hurricane. As Beta begins to turn northeast and skirt the middle and upper TX coast, the storm may weaken. Some uncertainty remains in the intensity forecast.
Tropical storm force winds will likely begin to arrive along the middle TX coast Sunday evening and spread northward into Matagorda Bay and along the upper TX coast by Monday. Hurricane conditions could reach the Matagorda Bay region on Tuesday.
Impacts
Storm Surge:
Water level rises along the upper TX coast will begin on Saturday and worsen Sunday into Monday due to the expansion of the tropical-storm-force wind field. This large wind field will also develop large swells over the NW Gulf of Mexico by Sunday into Monday with swells reaching 15-25 feet. On Sunday into Monday, expect 4-8 feet waves breaking on beaches. These large swells will lead to wave run up on top of elevated tides.
Large waves will accompany the higher tides. The prolonged nature of the event will result in significant beach erosion and damage to fragile dunes.
Ferry operations at both the Galveston-Bolivar and the Lynchburg sites may be impacted.
For SE Harris County:
From Saturday night into next week, coastal flooding will be possible in El Lago, Nassau Bay, Shoreacres, Seabrook and portions of Baytown near Goose Creek and Cedar Bayou.
This includes all areas around:
Most flooding will happen in streets, low marsh lands, roads near Galveston Bay and around Clear Lake and some subdivisions streets.
Wave action from ENE/E winds across Galveston Bay of 2-4 feet will be possible on top of these tides along the west side of Galveston Bay and 1-3 feet in Clear Lake which may damage docks, bulkheads, and moored vessels.
Rainfall
Rainfall will strongly depend on the track of Beta. Small changes could result in significant differences in rainfall amounts. Heaviest rains will likely be near the coast and offshore.
HCFCD models suggest that basin average rainfall totals of at least 6 inches would fill smaller creeks and bayous in Harris County (Willow Waterhole, Keegans Bayou, Willow Creek, Upper Little Cypress Creek).
Basin average amounts of 7-8 inches would fill Clear Creek, Hunting Bayou, Armand Bayou, Cypress Creek, Halls Bayou, Greens Bayou, White Oak Bayou, Buffalo Bayou, Cedar Bayou, and various smaller tributaries.
Addicks and Barker Reservoirs are currently empty.
Winds:
Tropical storm force winds may start Sunday evening around Matagorda Bay. Sustained 40mph winds likely spread northward along the upper TX coast on Monday including Galveston Bay.
Hurricane conditions will be possible near Matagorda Bay on Tuesday and across portions of coastal Matagorda, Brazoria, and Galveston Counties into Wednesday.
Across Harris County wind will increase into the 25-35mph range on Monday and possibly 40-50mph range on Tuesday into Wednesday with higher gusts, especially near Galveston Bay.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/19/2020 at 4am based on data from the National Hurricane Center and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.
1117 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 1 Year since Tropical Storm Imelda
Tropical Storm Beta Likely to Dump 4-6 Inches on Harris County, 10-12 Inches Near Coast
Preparations for Prolonged Coastal Flooding and Potential Inland Rainfall Flooding Should Begin now for Tropical Storm Beta.
As of 4PM CDT Friday, the National Hurricane Center predicts that storm surge, tropical storm and/or hurricane watches will likely be required for portions of the western Gulf coast tonight or on Saturday.
Forecast Track
Tropical Storm Beta is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general direction should last through Saturday. Late Saturday or Saturday night, the storm should begin a slow westward drift into early next week. After that, Beta should recurve to the northeast.
Don’t Focus on Exact Track Yet
Do not focus on the exact forecast track for Tropical Storm Beta, especially at days 3 to 5, as a high degree of uncertainty remains.
Regardless the forecast track, the center of Beta will approach western coast of the Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Even if we don’t take a direct hit from Beta…
10-20% Chance of Tropical Storm Winds for Houston
The Houston Area currently has a 10-20% chance of receiving tropical-storm force winds starting Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have already increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Beta could reach near hurricane strength Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
Key Messages
According to the National Hurricane Center:
Beta could affect the Houston Area much of next week.
Impacts
Tides/Storm Surge:
Strong ENE/E winds will push sea water toward the coast. Expect seas to build into the 8-15 foot range and waves to run up along the coast.
Expect at least 4.0-5.0 feet seas above the barnacle level. They could even reach near 6.0 feet. Impacts begin around 4.5 ft at several locations along the upper TX coast.
Low lying roadways near the coast will likely flood at times of high tide and some locations could become isolated. Significant beach erosion is likely with elevated tides and large wave action lasting for several days and coastal infrastructure could be damaged. The expected tides on Sunday will likely be 1.5-2.5 feet higher than those experienced with Laura and Hanna.
DO NOT get caught off guard with the expected water level rise along the coast. Understand that low lying coastal roads may be inundated for a long period of time
Rainfall:
Squalls will increase in frequency and intensity into Sunday night and Monday and begin to spread farther inland. There will be a sharp cut off in the higher rainfall amounts from south to north over the area with amounts of 10-12 inches likely near the coast and even higher offshore. However, College Station will probably only see 1-3 inches.
These rainfall amounts will likely change
Winds:
Tropical storm force winds could arrive by Sunday evening and slowly spread NE Monday and Tuesday. It is possible that some locations could see 24-48 hours of sustained tropical storm force winds with the slow movement of the system.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/18/2020 based on input from the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
1116 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 365 Days after Tropical Storm Imelda