At 4 AM Friday, Delta, as predicted, is headed for Louisiana. Houston will, however, feel some wind. The National Weather Service forecast for the Lake Houston Area today indicates showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 74. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. I already have .2 inches of rain in my gage. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch are possible today, says the NWS.
Friday night the chance of showers decreases to 40 percent, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Outer bands of Hurricane Delta are already reaching the Houston Area.
Houston has a 30-40% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds, i.e., greater than 39 mph.
If those winds arrive, expect them between late morning and early afternoon.
By tomorrow, Hurricane Delta should be a memory for us. Saturday will be sunny, with a high near 86. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER LOUISIANA
HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS
Hurricane Delta Status
At 400 AM CDT, Delta is moving toward the north near 12 mph. National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects this motion to continue today followed by a north-northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move inland within the hurricane warning area this evening. Maximum sustained winds approach 120 mph with higher gusts.
Note the wind extents.
Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast later today, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure 953 mb (28.15 inches).
Not A Good Day to Travel East
The further east you go today toward Louisiana, the more danger. The core of the hurricane will strike the Louisiana coast this evening. Hazards include:
STORM SURGE:
A combination of dangerous storm surge and high tides will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground.
Port O’Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay…1-3 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass…2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA…4-7 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay…7-11 ft
Small changes in Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. The deepest water will occur along the coast near and to the east of the landfall location. Large and dangerous waves will accompany surge. Stay tuned for possible changes and updates.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND:
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas later today.
RAINFALL:
Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding.
For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.
SURF:
Swells from Delta will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/9/2020 based on data from NWS and NHC
1137 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 386 after Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/HGX_loop.gif?fit=600%2C550&ssl=1550600adminadmin2020-10-09 06:26:072020-10-09 07:49:56Worst of Delta Will Miss Lake Houston Area to East
As of 4 PM Thursday, Delta has restrengthened into a category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph. One day before Delta makes landfall, it now appears that once again, the Lake Houston Area will miss the brunt of a vicious storm. Unfortunately, for the poor folks in Louisiana, it appears that Delta will take the same track that Laura did last month and ravage them once again.
Folks east of High Island, TX remain under a hurricane warning. Those between Sargent, TX and High Island are under a tropical storm warning. A storm surge warning remains in effect for everyone between High Island and Mississippi.
Warnings mean that conditions are expected within the warning area, usually within 36 hours.
Projected Track; Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Out 160 miles
Forecast models are now strongly in agreement on the projected track. That still doesn’t mean the Lake Houston Area is in the clear. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.
Here’s what Weather Live predicts the footprint of the storm will look like Friday morning at 7 AM. That blue dot represents Kingwood.
Lake Houston Area Impacts
NHC now predicts we have a 60-70% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.
They most likely will arrive tomorrow morning around 8 A.M. Delta is moving NNW at around 15 miles per hour. According to Lindner, “Tropical storm force winds will be possible in the TS warning area, although this will be heavily dependent on the expansion of the wind field. Chambers and southern Liberty Counties have the greater risk of sustained tropical storm force winds. We could see sustained tropical storm force winds in and around Galveston Bay on Friday and over southeast Harris, Galveston, and coastal Brazoria Counties.
NHC predicts the storm will weaken into a tropical depression within 36 hours after coming ashore.
Expected Rainfall
The eastern part of Houston could see anywhere between one and four inches of rain, with the higher totals farther east. Louisiana will likely see 6-10 inches.
Still, there is only a marginal (<5%) to slight (<10%) risk of flash flooding.
Storm Surge Warnings
One of the most serious threats: storm surge. NHC predicts water up to 11 feet above ground in the area around Vermillion Bay.
Posted By Bob Rehak on 10/8/2020 at 5:15 PM based on data from NHC and HCFCD
1136 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 385 Days after Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Screenshot-2020-10-08-at-2.56.39-PM-scaled.jpg?fit=1183%2C2560&ssl=125601183adminadmin2020-10-08 17:23:202020-10-08 17:30:54Hurricane Delta Tracking East; Back up to Cat 3, But Houston Out of Cone
1 P.M. Wednesday, October 7, 2020 – As of 1 P.M. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center issued three watches affecting the Houston region in conjunction with Hurricane Delta:
Hurricane watch from High Island TX to Grand Isle, LA
Tropical Storm watch from San Luis Pass to High Island including all of Galveston Bay
Storm surge watch from High Island, TX to the Alabama/Florida Border
Watches mean conditions could develop in the area, most often within the next 48 hours.
Swells will build into the 15-20ft range offshore on Thursday into Friday and 7-12 feet near the coast. This will result in wave run-up on the Gulf facing beaches and likely some degree of coastal flooding at the typical vulnerable locations.
Cone Still Includes Parts of East Texas
The National Hurricane Center indicates Hurricane Delta has now passed over the Yucatan. It weakened over land, but should strengthen again into a major Hurricane over warm waters in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Delta will move northwest today and then shift north on Thursday, according to NHC. By Friday morning, most of the central Gulf Coast will feel Delta in the form of higher winds, tides and storm surge.
While the cone of uncertainty associated with Hurricane Delta has consistently focused east of the Houston Area, it’s important to understand that ANYWHERE in the cone has an equal chance of being directly hit. And Houston is still near the western side of the cone.
Houston Most Likely Will Be on Dry Side
Luckily, Houston should be on the dry side of this storm. So we will likely not receive flooding rains, as least as far inland as the Lake Houston Area. The graphic below from the National Weather Service shows most of the predicted rainfall will happen east of us.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorology, says, “Rainfall will generally average less than 2 inches east of I-45 in some outer squalls on the west side of Delta.”
Wind is Primary Threat in Lake Houston Area
The NHC has adjusted its intensity forecast downward for Delta. However, it should still regain major hurricane status. The wind field will likely grow in size as the storm approaches the northern Gulf coast. That will increase the storm surge and wind threats. At this time, the NHC forecasts that the Lake Houston Area has a 40-50% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.
The most likely arrival time of those winds is Friday morning.
Don’t plan a picnic under the old oak tree for Friday.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “Squalls on the western side of the circulation of Delta will begin to move onshore and into the area on Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday along with gusty winds. Tropical storm force winds may be possible over the SE and E parts of the area, especially Chambers, Galveston, Liberty, and southeast Harris Counties. But this will depend on the overall expansion of the wind field of Delta on Thursday and Friday.”
Posted by Bob Rehak at 2 PM on Wednesday 10/7/2020based on information from HCFCD, NWS and NHC
1135 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 384 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Potential-Storm-Surge-for-Delta.jpg?fit=1200%2C1175&ssl=111751200adminadmin2020-10-07 14:17:152020-10-07 16:59:51Hurricane Delta Watch from High Island to Grand Isle; Tropical Storm Watch for Galveston Bay
Worst of Delta Will Miss Lake Houston Area to East
At 4 AM Friday, Delta, as predicted, is headed for Louisiana. Houston will, however, feel some wind. The National Weather Service forecast for the Lake Houston Area today indicates showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 74. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. I already have .2 inches of rain in my gage. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch are possible today, says the NWS.
Friday night the chance of showers decreases to 40 percent, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
By tomorrow, Hurricane Delta should be a memory for us. Saturday will be sunny, with a high near 86. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
So what’s happening with Hurricane Delta at the moment? For those traveling south or east today, here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center.
Summary of Watches and Warnings in Effect
STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER LOUISIANA
HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS
Hurricane Delta Status
At 400 AM CDT, Delta is moving toward the north near 12 mph. National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects this motion to continue today followed by a north-northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move inland within the hurricane warning area this evening. Maximum sustained winds approach 120 mph with higher gusts.
Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast later today, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure 953 mb (28.15 inches).
Not A Good Day to Travel East
The further east you go today toward Louisiana, the more danger. The core of the hurricane will strike the Louisiana coast this evening. Hazards include:
STORM SURGE:
A combination of dangerous storm surge and high tides will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground.
Small changes in Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. The deepest water will occur along the coast near and to the east of the landfall location. Large and dangerous waves will accompany surge. Stay tuned for possible changes and updates.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND:
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas later today.
RAINFALL:
Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding.
For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.
SURF:
Swells from Delta will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/9/2020 based on data from NWS and NHC
1137 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 386 after Imelda
Hurricane Delta Tracking East; Back up to Cat 3, But Houston Out of Cone
As of 4 PM Thursday, Delta has restrengthened into a category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph. One day before Delta makes landfall, it now appears that once again, the Lake Houston Area will miss the brunt of a vicious storm. Unfortunately, for the poor folks in Louisiana, it appears that Delta will take the same track that Laura did last month and ravage them once again.
At its 4 PM Thursday update, the National Hurricane Center shows Delta in the middle of the Gulf and headed toward Louisiana with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph.
Warnings from Sargent, TX East
Folks east of High Island, TX remain under a hurricane warning. Those between Sargent, TX and High Island are under a tropical storm warning. A storm surge warning remains in effect for everyone between High Island and Mississippi.
Warnings mean that conditions are expected within the warning area, usually within 36 hours.
Projected Track; Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Out 160 miles
Forecast models are now strongly in agreement on the projected track. That still doesn’t mean the Lake Houston Area is in the clear. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.
Lake Houston Area Impacts
NHC now predicts we have a 60-70% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.
They most likely will arrive tomorrow morning around 8 A.M. Delta is moving NNW at around 15 miles per hour. According to Lindner, “Tropical storm force winds will be possible in the TS warning area, although this will be heavily dependent on the expansion of the wind field. Chambers and southern Liberty Counties have the greater risk of sustained tropical storm force winds. We could see sustained tropical storm force winds in and around Galveston Bay on Friday and over southeast Harris, Galveston, and coastal Brazoria Counties.
NHC predicts the storm will weaken into a tropical depression within 36 hours after coming ashore.
Expected Rainfall
The eastern part of Houston could see anywhere between one and four inches of rain, with the higher totals farther east. Louisiana will likely see 6-10 inches.
Still, there is only a marginal (<5%) to slight (<10%) risk of flash flooding.
Storm Surge Warnings
One of the most serious threats: storm surge. NHC predicts water up to 11 feet above ground in the area around Vermillion Bay.
Posted By Bob Rehak on 10/8/2020 at 5:15 PM based on data from NHC and HCFCD
1136 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 385 Days after Imelda
Hurricane Delta Watch from High Island to Grand Isle; Tropical Storm Watch for Galveston Bay
1 P.M. Wednesday, October 7, 2020 – As of 1 P.M. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center issued three watches affecting the Houston region in conjunction with Hurricane Delta:
Watches mean conditions could develop in the area, most often within the next 48 hours.
Swells will build into the 15-20ft range offshore on Thursday into Friday and 7-12 feet near the coast. This will result in wave run-up on the Gulf facing beaches and likely some degree of coastal flooding at the typical vulnerable locations.
Cone Still Includes Parts of East Texas
The National Hurricane Center indicates Hurricane Delta has now passed over the Yucatan. It weakened over land, but should strengthen again into a major Hurricane over warm waters in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Delta will move northwest today and then shift north on Thursday, according to NHC. By Friday morning, most of the central Gulf Coast will feel Delta in the form of higher winds, tides and storm surge.
Houston Most Likely Will Be on Dry Side
Luckily, Houston should be on the dry side of this storm. So we will likely not receive flooding rains, as least as far inland as the Lake Houston Area. The graphic below from the National Weather Service shows most of the predicted rainfall will happen east of us.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorology, says, “Rainfall will generally average less than 2 inches east of I-45 in some outer squalls on the west side of Delta.”
Wind is Primary Threat in Lake Houston Area
The NHC has adjusted its intensity forecast downward for Delta. However, it should still regain major hurricane status. The wind field will likely grow in size as the storm approaches the northern Gulf coast. That will increase the storm surge and wind threats. At this time, the NHC forecasts that the Lake Houston Area has a 40-50% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.
The most likely arrival time of those winds is Friday morning.
Don’t plan a picnic under the old oak tree for Friday.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “Squalls on the western side of the circulation of Delta will begin to move onshore and into the area on Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday along with gusty winds. Tropical storm force winds may be possible over the SE and E parts of the area, especially Chambers, Galveston, Liberty, and southeast Harris Counties. But this will depend on the overall expansion of the wind field of Delta on Thursday and Friday.”
For More Information
For the most up-to-date forecasts on Hurricane Delta, check the National Hurricane Center.
For detailed local weather forecasts, check the National Weather Service.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 2 PM on Wednesday 10/7/2020 based on information from HCFCD, NWS and NHC
1135 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 384 since Imelda