5PM CDT, Tuesday, October 6, 2020 – Hurricane Delta, now a Cat 4, continues to strengthen and the track continues to shift slightly west. In this afternoon’s update, the NHC predicts the storm could reach 155 MPH by tonight and the cone of uncertainty now bisects Galveston Bay. Just this morning, the western edge was at High Island.
Delta intensified impressively over the last 24 hours with winds increasing more than 100 mph. Delta continues to move toward the WNW at 15mph and this motion is expected to continue until landfall on the NE Yucatan tonight near Cancun.
Official NHC forecast track as of 5PM EDT Tuesday October 6. Note that the NHC now shows Delta as a MAJOR (M) Hurricane all the way to the US Gulf Coast.
Track
Delta will quickly move across the NE Yucatan tonight and into the southern Gulf on Wednesday. By Thursday, Delta should begin a turn toward the NW and N over the west-central Gulf of Mexico. It remains unclear when and how fast this turn transpires. This will have impacts on where and when Delta will make landfall on the US Gulf coast. Most models show landfall over the central Louisiana coast around Vermillion Bay, but the European model continues to take the storm farther west.
The official NHC forecast shows the western edge of the forecast error cone through Galveston Bay and the eastern edge near the central MS coast.
National Hurricane Center
Intensity
Delta continues to be in a favorable environment for intensification. NHC brings the hurricane to 155mph tonight. After landfall on the Yucatan, Delta will continue to find near ideal conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico and will likely reach a secondary peak intensity around 130-140mph on Thursday.
By Thursday evening as Delta begins to turn northward and accelerate toward the US Gulf coast, increasing shear is likely, but increasing forward speed could negate this shear.
Delta will then move over cooler shelf waters in the northern Gulf, but the fast forward speed of Delta could result in a slower rate of weakening.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
It is uncertain how strong Delta will be at landfall along the US Gulf coast, but the general consensus is somewhere between 105-125 mph.
Delta’s wind field will expand over the central Gulf on Thursday. NHC forecasts Delta will approach the northern Gulf as a large hurricane and this will support impacts well away from the center – both to the west and east.
Impacts
Given the changes today, expect increasing swells and tides along the upper TX coast as early as late Wednesday, but more likely on Thursday and Friday. Given the expanding wind field, tropical storm force winds (40mph) may get close to portions of eastern SE TX on Friday – mainly along and east of a line from San Luis Pass to Liberty.
Additionally, some squalls may move into the region on Thursday night and Friday with gusty winds. As noted on the graphic below there is between a 30-50% chance of sustained 40mph winds over the southeastern portions of the area. The most likely arrival time for tropical storm force winds would be around midday on Friday.
Any deviation in the forecast track to the west will increase the impacts along the upper TX coast and persons should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/2020
1134 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/image001-1.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-10-06 17:18:252020-10-06 17:18:33Delta Will Reach 155 MPH By Tonight; Cone Now Includes Galveston Bay
On September 24th, I noted some chatter online about another fire in the Forest Cove townhome complex between Hamblen Road and the West Fork. I went there last night to see what had happened. It was very disheartening. Five more townhomes had burned to the ground. Nothing remained but ashes.
Why We Should Not Build So Close to Rivers
Not long ago, dozens of families lived in this complex. They had hopes and dreams. Children played in the street. Neighbors looked after each other. Couples got married by the river. Everyone shared a love a nature. Sure, they had frequent floods. But the homes were designed around that. Then came Harvey.
Water reached 17 to 23 feet into the third floors of townhomes. After a night of terror in which 240,000 cubic feet per second literally swept some structures off their foundations, residents returned to a wasteland. It was so bad, that FEMA even came here to film a video about the ravages of Harvey. Now, it’s even worse.
Many people who once lived here, like Jennifer Parks, won’t even venture into the neighborhood. They find the memories too traumatic. Here’s what her once-proud townhome looks like today. This was the fourth fire in that neighborhood since the start of 2019.
Photos of Latest Fire
Five more units burned. Not one still stands west of Timberline Drive.
The fire scorched surrounding trees and left nothing but ashes.
The bottom floors were garages.
Townhomes between Timberline Dr., Timberline Court and Aqua Vista St. have all burned.
The northern half of the complex in the red rectangle burned last year on July 4. The southern half burned the day after Tropical Storm Beta on September 24 when weather was cloudy but calm.
Complex on left burned. Photo taken two weeks after Harvey.
Close up of the complex that burned. On September 2, 2020, it still looked much like it did after Harvey.
Four More Buildings Remain
Five other buildings remain on the eastern side of Marina Drive. View this post for an explanation of why buyouts take so long.
Two years ago, the County and City Parks Board announced plans to turn the area south of Hamblen into a park and trails. But so far…nothing.
Time for Plan B
It’s time to go to Plan B. Frankly, in my opinion, this latest fire underscores the need to condemn these properties as a public-safety hazard. We need to demolish them and get on with life for the good of the community and the safety of firefighters. Let’s turn these eyesores into assets. Return the area to green space NOW.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/2020
1134 Days after Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/20201005-DJI_0814.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-10-06 15:35:302020-10-06 15:39:28Last Townhomes on Timberline Drive in Forest Cove Burned to Ground
11 AM CDT 10/6/2020 – In the last hour, Delta’s winds have increased from 115 to 130 MPH, according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner. “Delta is now an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with the central pressure down to 954mb. It is likely that Delta will continue to intensify and could reach 145-155mph late today before landfalling near Cancun tonight,” says Lindner.
Forecasts Continue Shifting West
Forecasters predict that Delta will cross over the tip of the Yucatan and head north toward the central Gulf Coast. The NHC has shifted the forecast track slightly to the west at their 10:00 AM advisory. “The western edge of the forecast cone is now near High Island,” explained Lindner.
Forecast track for Hurricane Delta as of 11 AM EDT Tuesday October 6. Source: National Hurricane Center
Landfall Still Most Likely in Louisiana
“Forecast models, with the exception of the ECMWF, continue to indicate that Delta will turn toward the north of the NW Gulf of Mexico and likely landfall along the central or SE LA coast late Friday. Given the potential for a stronger hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico, it is possible that Delta could approach the US coast as a major hurricane.”
Various model forecasts as of 11 am CDT.
Increasing shear and cooler waters near the northern Gulf coast are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed. But Delta should still be a dangerous hurricane when it nears the northern Gulf coast.
Storm 90 Miles Wide
According to the National Hurricane Center, “Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/2020 based on information from the NHC and HCFCD
1134 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/storm_26_ens.gif?fit=800%2C600&ssl=1600800adminadmin2020-10-06 11:29:512020-10-06 11:30:00Delta Blows Up into Cat 4 Sooner than Expected; High Island Now in Forecast Cone
Delta Will Reach 155 MPH By Tonight; Cone Now Includes Galveston Bay
5PM CDT, Tuesday, October 6, 2020 – Hurricane Delta, now a Cat 4, continues to strengthen and the track continues to shift slightly west. In this afternoon’s update, the NHC predicts the storm could reach 155 MPH by tonight and the cone of uncertainty now bisects Galveston Bay. Just this morning, the western edge was at High Island.
Delta intensified impressively over the last 24 hours with winds increasing more than 100 mph. Delta continues to move toward the WNW at 15mph and this motion is expected to continue until landfall on the NE Yucatan tonight near Cancun.
Track
Delta will quickly move across the NE Yucatan tonight and into the southern Gulf on Wednesday. By Thursday, Delta should begin a turn toward the NW and N over the west-central Gulf of Mexico. It remains unclear when and how fast this turn transpires. This will have impacts on where and when Delta will make landfall on the US Gulf coast. Most models show landfall over the central Louisiana coast around Vermillion Bay, but the European model continues to take the storm farther west.
Intensity
Delta continues to be in a favorable environment for intensification. NHC brings the hurricane to 155mph tonight. After landfall on the Yucatan, Delta will continue to find near ideal conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico and will likely reach a secondary peak intensity around 130-140mph on Thursday.
By Thursday evening as Delta begins to turn northward and accelerate toward the US Gulf coast, increasing shear is likely, but increasing forward speed could negate this shear.
It is uncertain how strong Delta will be at landfall along the US Gulf coast, but the general consensus is somewhere between 105-125 mph.
Delta’s wind field will expand over the central Gulf on Thursday. NHC forecasts Delta will approach the northern Gulf as a large hurricane and this will support impacts well away from the center – both to the west and east.
Impacts
Given the changes today, expect increasing swells and tides along the upper TX coast as early as late Wednesday, but more likely on Thursday and Friday. Given the expanding wind field, tropical storm force winds (40mph) may get close to portions of eastern SE TX on Friday – mainly along and east of a line from San Luis Pass to Liberty.
Additionally, some squalls may move into the region on Thursday night and Friday with gusty winds. As noted on the graphic below there is between a 30-50% chance of sustained 40mph winds over the southeastern portions of the area. The most likely arrival time for tropical storm force winds would be around midday on Friday.
Any deviation in the forecast track to the west will increase the impacts along the upper TX coast and persons should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/2020
1134 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Last Townhomes on Timberline Drive in Forest Cove Burned to Ground
On September 24th, I noted some chatter online about another fire in the Forest Cove townhome complex between Hamblen Road and the West Fork. I went there last night to see what had happened. It was very disheartening. Five more townhomes had burned to the ground. Nothing remained but ashes.
Why We Should Not Build So Close to Rivers
Not long ago, dozens of families lived in this complex. They had hopes and dreams. Children played in the street. Neighbors looked after each other. Couples got married by the river. Everyone shared a love a nature. Sure, they had frequent floods. But the homes were designed around that. Then came Harvey.
Water reached 17 to 23 feet into the third floors of townhomes. After a night of terror in which 240,000 cubic feet per second literally swept some structures off their foundations, residents returned to a wasteland. It was so bad, that FEMA even came here to film a video about the ravages of Harvey. Now, it’s even worse.
Many people who once lived here, like Jennifer Parks, won’t even venture into the neighborhood. They find the memories too traumatic. Here’s what her once-proud townhome looks like today. This was the fourth fire in that neighborhood since the start of 2019.
Photos of Latest Fire
The northern half of the complex in the red rectangle burned last year on July 4. The southern half burned the day after Tropical Storm Beta on September 24 when weather was cloudy but calm.
Four More Buildings Remain
Five other buildings remain on the eastern side of Marina Drive. View this post for an explanation of why buyouts take so long.
Two years ago, the County and City Parks Board announced plans to turn the area south of Hamblen into a park and trails. But so far…nothing.
Time for Plan B
It’s time to go to Plan B. Frankly, in my opinion, this latest fire underscores the need to condemn these properties as a public-safety hazard. We need to demolish them and get on with life for the good of the community and the safety of firefighters. Let’s turn these eyesores into assets. Return the area to green space NOW.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/2020
1134 Days after Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Delta Blows Up into Cat 4 Sooner than Expected; High Island Now in Forecast Cone
11 AM CDT 10/6/2020 – In the last hour, Delta’s winds have increased from 115 to 130 MPH, according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner. “Delta is now an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with the central pressure down to 954mb. It is likely that Delta will continue to intensify and could reach 145-155mph late today before landfalling near Cancun tonight,” says Lindner.
Forecasts Continue Shifting West
Forecasters predict that Delta will cross over the tip of the Yucatan and head north toward the central Gulf Coast. The NHC has shifted the forecast track slightly to the west at their 10:00 AM advisory. “The western edge of the forecast cone is now near High Island,” explained Lindner.
Landfall Still Most Likely in Louisiana
“Forecast models, with the exception of the ECMWF, continue to indicate that Delta will turn toward the north of the NW Gulf of Mexico and likely landfall along the central or SE LA coast late Friday. Given the potential for a stronger hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico, it is possible that Delta could approach the US coast as a major hurricane.”
Increasing shear and cooler waters near the northern Gulf coast are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed. But Delta should still be a dangerous hurricane when it nears the northern Gulf coast.
Storm 90 Miles Wide
According to the National Hurricane Center, “Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).”
Delta continues to exceed expectations. Just last night, forecasters predicted Delta would become a major hurricane by Wednesday, not Tuesday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/2020 based on information from the NHC and HCFCD
1134 Days since Hurricane Harvey