Tropical Depression Forms over NW Caribbean; Threatens U.S. Gulf

The tropical wave in the NW Caribbean that I posted about this morning has become better organized. It now has a broad low-level center southwest of the Cayman Islands. Low- and mid-level centers are currently not aligned, but conditions favor eventual alignment. There are numerous curved bands and weak to moderate scattered convection near the low level center.

Track

Like so many other storms this season, this one should veer east before it hits Houston. TD 28 will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. But an approaching cold front over TX will turn it toward the east. Major global models agree on the track with the exception of the European model which brings it in over Louisiana. This model has had a significant west bias this hurricane season with Laura, Sally, and Delta. Other models take it toward the central or eastern US Gulf coast from SC LA to the FL panhandle. 

Intensity 

Conditions are favorable for development with plenty of moisture and warm sea-surface conditions. NHC forecasts a hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. After Tuesday, it may weaken as the system lifts northward over the Gulf of Mexico. Similar to Delta, with an incoming trough from the west, an expansion of the wind field will be possible over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Threats

The system should approach the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast.

At the present, this is not a threat to Texas. For up to the minute information, visit the National Hurricane Center.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 5 pm on 10/24/2020 based on info from HCFCD and the NHC

1152 Days since Hurricane Harvey