In the last two weeks heavy rains have slammed the areas upstream from Lake Conroe leading to steady rises in the lake level. Had the lake not been lowered earlier, neighborhoods could be flooding now. Streets in several places are already cut off.
As of 7:30 pm Saturday night, 5/1/2021
More Than Three Foot Increase Above Lowered Level
The rain a week ago erased the one-foot seasonal lowering that SJRA started on April 1. Then yesterday’s rains increased the lake more than 2 feet above its normal level of 201 – despite increasing discharges by the SJRA. The lake is now threatening lakeside homes and businesses as you can see from the photos below.
If you’ve watched the dashboard at SJRA.net, the SJRA started discharging 450 cubic feet per second (CFS) before the most recent round of storms. Now the discharge rate has increased to 9275 CFS, which is close to the max rate that the antiquated flood gates on Lake Houston can handle. But even at 9275 CFS, Lake Conroe continued to rise this afternoon.
So did Lake Houston, despite the fact that the Coastal Water Authority has been trying to lower the lake a full foot for several days now.
As of 5:30PM Saturday.
Water Coming from Other Sources, Too
However, in addition to the water from Lake Conroe, Lake Houston is also picking up water from other sources, a number of which are in danger of coming out of their banks.
Yellow triangles indicate a stream could come out of its banks. Red exclamation points mean flooding is likely.
This is precisely the scenario that the SJRA designed its lake lowering policy to prevent – an ugly choice between flooding people upstream or downstream.
Water Creeping Closer to Homes and Businesses around Lake Conroe
A Lake Conroe resident who wishes to remain anonymous took the pictures below this afternoon. They show docks underwater, the lake invading shorelines, streets cut off, and homes and businesses being threatened by rising waters.
The docks at Papas on Lake Conroe are underwater.
Water is creeping closer to the Villas at Margaritaville.
This resident said water from the rising lake levels was keeping water from draining into the lake and backing it up into streets.
Docks in front of Monty’s Light House and Fajita Jacks. Those boats are in their slips. The docks are under water.
The marinas on 105 are closed for two reasons. First, the lake is closed to boat traffic because of dangerous conditions. Second, the water is high enough that you can’t get trailers in deep enough, according to one resident. The Walden marina looked like the one above, he said.
One More Round of Thunderstorms Tonight
Expect one more round of storms tonight. National Weather Service radar shows them already sweeping into the Lake Conroe area. They aren’t predicted to dump large amounts of rain, but they will put additional pressure on the homes and businesses around the lake, especially as runoff from previous storms continues to work its way to the lake.
And virtually the entire region remains under a flash flood watch through tomorrow morning. A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is very dangerous. You should monitor forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
From National Weather Service on 5/1/21
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/1/2021 based on information from Lake Conroe residents and the NWS
Widespread heavy rainfall along and north of I-10 over the last 24 hours has resulted in rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches over much of that area. Pockets have received 4-5 inches. Those include northern Waller and western Montgomery Counties. Portions of Walker County received 4-6 inches.
Ongoing flooding through much of today closed several roads in low lying areas of northern Waller and Walker Counties. Run-off continues to progress down creeks and into mainstem rivers. Rises will continue along upper Spring Creek into tonight and Saturday. However, at the moment forecasters expect no significant flooding. See attached graphics for 24-hr rainfall totals and current channel status.
First Round Kicks Off Overnight
NWS satellite imagery shows moisture streaming up out of Mexico as of 7PM Friday. The area along the middle Texas coast from the coastal bend up to to about Wharton looks favorable for the formation of another round of heavy to excessive rainfall late tonight and early tomorrow. Models indicate this activity will occur mostly west of I-45 and south of I-10 into Saturday morning before it begins to weaken. Exactly how far northeast rain and heavy rain may spread is still in question. But according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, “The latest thinking indicates it will remain southwest of the areas hard hit today.”
Second Round of Storms Saturday Night into Sunday
Lindner predicts a weakening of the storm Saturday afternoon. But he warns to expect numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. He says they will invade the region from the southwest to northeast. Moisture levels will support heavy to excessive rainfall rates within any organized thunderstorms.
Rainfall Amounts
Expect additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches over the weekend with isolated totals reaching 4-6 inches…especially around the coastal bend and Matagorda Bay tonight into early Saturday.
Area Soils Now Saturated
I received 3.07 inches in my rain gage today and have standing water in my yard. Soils have become nearly saturated in areas that saw the greatest rainfall today, while areas around Galveston Bay have experienced little rainfall thus far. Heavy run-off in many areas north of I-10 will cause rises in several channels. Keep an eye on the East Fork of the San Jacinto River at FM 1485 into the weekend. The forecast there currently exceeds flood stage.
A good amount of water is routing into the West Fork of the San Jacinto also. But current forecasts keep the river from Conroe to Humble below flood stage. The SJRA is releasing water from Lake Conroe at almost 6000 cubic feet per second. Despite that, the lake level has risen almost a foot and a half today above its normal pool level.
As of 7PM 4/30/2021.
The areas north of the lake received some of the highest rainfall totals this morning. This lake is now 3.5 feet above where it was when the SJRA stopped the seasonal lowering last week. Had they now lowered the lake a foot, it would be even higher now. We can all learn from this experience.
Minor flooding will also be possible this evening along upper Spring Creek west of Hegar Rd with rural low lands near the creek inundated.
Additional rainfall over the weekend may change some of the current forecasts.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/30/21 at 8PM based on info from the NWS and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner
1340 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Rainfall-4.30.21.jpg?fit=1200%2C669&ssl=16691200adminadmin2021-04-30 19:45:422021-04-30 19:50:27Two More Rounds of Heavy Rain Yet to Come; Flash Flood Watch Extended Through Sunday
UPDATED AS OF 10PM THURSDAY – Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, warns that heavy rainfall potential will spread across the region tonight through the weekend.
Rainfall accumulations expected by NWS in next 5 days. Updated at 5:51PM Houston time on 4/29/2021.
National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of Southeast Texas tonight through Sunday morning. However, the risk is slight.
Most of the Houston region has a marginal or slight risk of flash flooding – less than 20%.
Lakes Houston, Conroe Being Lowered
Houston Public Works is currently lowering Lake Houston by 12 inches, from 42.5 feet to 41.5 feet in response to the newly updated forecast – 3 inches of rain in our watershed within 24 hours. Property owners along the lake should secure property along the shoreline. To monitor current water levels at Lake Houston, visit www.coastalwaterauthority.org.
The SJRA had stopped its seasonal release from Lake Conroe. Rains from last weekend pushed the lake back up past its normal full pool level of 201 feet. As of 7pm Thursday, the SJRA had not resumed releasing any water, but by 10pm it had.
Lake Conroe level as of 7pm on 4/29/2021
As of 10pm, SJRA had started releasing 530 cubic feet per second.
Inflow from Gulf Will Collide With Stalled Front over SE TX
“A slow-moving, upper-level, low-pressure system over the southwest will combine with a surface front that will move into southeast Texas later today,” says Lindner. He expects the fronts to stall over our area. He says they will produce numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms from late this afternoon into Sunday.
Onshore flow has increased moisture over the region with dewpoints running in the low to mid 70’s. The surface front extends from northeast Texas to near Laredo. It will move slowly into southeast Texas late this afternoon and then likely stall between downtown and the coast by Friday morning. Other disturbances, says Lindner, will ride along this frontal boundary toward the northeast helping to produce several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
With the upper level winds becoming increasing parallel to the stalling surface front and moisture levels remaining high into the weekend, the threat for heavy rainfall will be increasing. Storm motions are expected to slow on Friday, but coverage remains scattered, so some areas could see some decent rainfall while other get little.
Threat Remains Through Sunday
Expect widespread storms to develop on Saturday morning as the threat for cell training increases.
The slow moving upper level low will then move directly across the area on Saturday night into Sunday with additional rounds of thunderstorms…some of these storms could be severe along with more heavy rainfall.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible with isolated totals of 4-5 inches. With all the moisture in place, high rainfall rates could cause street flooding.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Lindner warns potentially higher totals are possible given the overall slow moving nature of the weather pattern.
Increasing Runoff as Grounds Saturate, Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding
The dry ground conditions now in place means soil will absorb much of this rainfall. Regardless, Lindner predicts rises on area creeks and bayous. He says that grounds will begin to saturate over the weekend yielding greater run-off as the storm wears on.
The National Weather Service has all of southeast Texas in a marginal risk for flash flooding starting Friday and into Saturday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/29/2021 based on information by Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner and the National Weather Service
1339 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/image001.gif?fit=800%2C561&ssl=1561800adminadmin2021-04-29 16:04:172021-04-29 22:20:56Heavy Rainfall Potential Tonight, Through Weekend
Lake Conroe Keeps Rising Despite Increasing Discharges by SJRA
In the last two weeks heavy rains have slammed the areas upstream from Lake Conroe leading to steady rises in the lake level. Had the lake not been lowered earlier, neighborhoods could be flooding now. Streets in several places are already cut off.
More Than Three Foot Increase Above Lowered Level
The rain a week ago erased the one-foot seasonal lowering that SJRA started on April 1. Then yesterday’s rains increased the lake more than 2 feet above its normal level of 201 – despite increasing discharges by the SJRA. The lake is now threatening lakeside homes and businesses as you can see from the photos below.
If you’ve watched the dashboard at SJRA.net, the SJRA started discharging 450 cubic feet per second (CFS) before the most recent round of storms. Now the discharge rate has increased to 9275 CFS, which is close to the max rate that the antiquated flood gates on Lake Houston can handle. But even at 9275 CFS, Lake Conroe continued to rise this afternoon.
So did Lake Houston, despite the fact that the Coastal Water Authority has been trying to lower the lake a full foot for several days now.
Water Coming from Other Sources, Too
However, in addition to the water from Lake Conroe, Lake Houston is also picking up water from other sources, a number of which are in danger of coming out of their banks.
Yellow triangles indicate a stream could come out of its banks. Red exclamation points mean flooding is likely.
But the Lake Conroe Association has fought the lowering for the last two years both in a court of law and the court of public opinion. The Association mounted an expensive campaign including billboards, lawsuits, and a legislative offensive against the SJRA. Now, the rapid rise in lake levels may undermine LCA’s support; it certainly undercuts their arguments against seasonal lake lowering.
Water Creeping Closer to Homes and Businesses around Lake Conroe
A Lake Conroe resident who wishes to remain anonymous took the pictures below this afternoon. They show docks underwater, the lake invading shorelines, streets cut off, and homes and businesses being threatened by rising waters.
The marinas on 105 are closed for two reasons. First, the lake is closed to boat traffic because of dangerous conditions. Second, the water is high enough that you can’t get trailers in deep enough, according to one resident. The Walden marina looked like the one above, he said.
One More Round of Thunderstorms Tonight
Expect one more round of storms tonight. National Weather Service radar shows them already sweeping into the Lake Conroe area. They aren’t predicted to dump large amounts of rain, but they will put additional pressure on the homes and businesses around the lake, especially as runoff from previous storms continues to work its way to the lake.
The East Fork in southeast Montgomery County remains under a Flash Flood WARNING, especially areas around Caney and Peach Creeks.
And virtually the entire region remains under a flash flood watch through tomorrow morning. A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is very dangerous. You should monitor forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/1/2021 based on information from Lake Conroe residents and the NWS
1341 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Two More Rounds of Heavy Rain Yet to Come; Flash Flood Watch Extended Through Sunday
Heavy rainfall remains possible through Sunday.
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until Sunday morning for much of the area.
Widespread heavy rainfall along and north of I-10 over the last 24 hours has resulted in rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches over much of that area. Pockets have received 4-5 inches. Those include northern Waller and western Montgomery Counties. Portions of Walker County received 4-6 inches.
Ongoing flooding through much of today closed several roads in low lying areas of northern Waller and Walker Counties. Run-off continues to progress down creeks and into mainstem rivers. Rises will continue along upper Spring Creek into tonight and Saturday. However, at the moment forecasters expect no significant flooding. See attached graphics for 24-hr rainfall totals and current channel status.
First Round Kicks Off Overnight
NWS satellite imagery shows moisture streaming up out of Mexico as of 7PM Friday. The area along the middle Texas coast from the coastal bend up to to about Wharton looks favorable for the formation of another round of heavy to excessive rainfall late tonight and early tomorrow. Models indicate this activity will occur mostly west of I-45 and south of I-10 into Saturday morning before it begins to weaken. Exactly how far northeast rain and heavy rain may spread is still in question. But according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, “The latest thinking indicates it will remain southwest of the areas hard hit today.”
Second Round of Storms Saturday Night into Sunday
Lindner predicts a weakening of the storm Saturday afternoon. But he warns to expect numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. He says they will invade the region from the southwest to northeast. Moisture levels will support heavy to excessive rainfall rates within any organized thunderstorms.
Rainfall Amounts
Expect additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches over the weekend with isolated totals reaching 4-6 inches…especially around the coastal bend and Matagorda Bay tonight into early Saturday.
Area Soils Now Saturated
I received 3.07 inches in my rain gage today and have standing water in my yard. Soils have become nearly saturated in areas that saw the greatest rainfall today, while areas around Galveston Bay have experienced little rainfall thus far. Heavy run-off in many areas north of I-10 will cause rises in several channels. Keep an eye on the East Fork of the San Jacinto River at FM 1485 into the weekend. The forecast there currently exceeds flood stage.
A good amount of water is routing into the West Fork of the San Jacinto also. But current forecasts keep the river from Conroe to Humble below flood stage. The SJRA is releasing water from Lake Conroe at almost 6000 cubic feet per second. Despite that, the lake level has risen almost a foot and a half today above its normal pool level.
The areas north of the lake received some of the highest rainfall totals this morning. This lake is now 3.5 feet above where it was when the SJRA stopped the seasonal lowering last week. Had they now lowered the lake a foot, it would be even higher now. We can all learn from this experience.
Minor flooding will also be possible this evening along upper Spring Creek west of Hegar Rd with rural low lands near the creek inundated.
Additional rainfall over the weekend may change some of the current forecasts.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/30/21 at 8PM based on info from the NWS and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner
1340 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Heavy Rainfall Potential Tonight, Through Weekend
UPDATED AS OF 10PM THURSDAY – Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, warns that heavy rainfall potential will spread across the region tonight through the weekend.
National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of Southeast Texas tonight through Sunday morning. However, the risk is slight.
Lakes Houston, Conroe Being Lowered
Houston Public Works is currently lowering Lake Houston by 12 inches, from 42.5 feet to 41.5 feet in response to the newly updated forecast – 3 inches of rain in our watershed within 24 hours. Property owners along the lake should secure property along the shoreline. To monitor current water levels at Lake Houston, visit www.coastalwaterauthority.org.
The SJRA had stopped its seasonal release from Lake Conroe. Rains from last weekend pushed the lake back up past its normal full pool level of 201 feet. As of 7pm Thursday, the SJRA had not resumed releasing any water, but by 10pm it had.
To monitor SJRA releases, see the dashboard on their home page.
Inflow from Gulf Will Collide With Stalled Front over SE TX
“A slow-moving, upper-level, low-pressure system over the southwest will combine with a surface front that will move into southeast Texas later today,” says Lindner. He expects the fronts to stall over our area. He says they will produce numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms from late this afternoon into Sunday.
Onshore flow has increased moisture over the region with dewpoints running in the low to mid 70’s. The surface front extends from northeast Texas to near Laredo. It will move slowly into southeast Texas late this afternoon and then likely stall between downtown and the coast by Friday morning. Other disturbances, says Lindner, will ride along this frontal boundary toward the northeast helping to produce several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
With the upper level winds becoming increasing parallel to the stalling surface front and moisture levels remaining high into the weekend, the threat for heavy rainfall will be increasing. Storm motions are expected to slow on Friday, but coverage remains scattered, so some areas could see some decent rainfall while other get little.
Threat Remains Through Sunday
Expect widespread storms to develop on Saturday morning as the threat for cell training increases.
The slow moving upper level low will then move directly across the area on Saturday night into Sunday with additional rounds of thunderstorms…some of these storms could be severe along with more heavy rainfall.
Lindner warns potentially higher totals are possible given the overall slow moving nature of the weather pattern.
Increasing Runoff as Grounds Saturate, Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding
The dry ground conditions now in place means soil will absorb much of this rainfall. Regardless, Lindner predicts rises on area creeks and bayous. He says that grounds will begin to saturate over the weekend yielding greater run-off as the storm wears on.
The National Weather Service has all of southeast Texas in a marginal risk for flash flooding starting Friday and into Saturday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/29/2021 based on information by Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner and the National Weather Service
1339 Days since Hurricane Harvey