Still, with hurricanes, you prepare for the worst and hope for the best. And in the end, we got the best of Nicholas. Even the power outages happened in the middle of the night when most people were asleep.
Results of Scouting Trip This Morning
A scouting trip this morning showed the worst never materialized here. That’s not to say that we were damage free. I saw numerous downed trees, signs blown over, and water filling roadside ditches. But, thankfully, no flooded homes! There may have been some; I just didn’t see any.
Kingwood Drive and Green Oak Drive in Kingwood.A sign of high winds during the night.See more images below.
Modest Rainfall Spread Out over Time Kept Bayous in Banks
As of 11 AM on Tuesday 9/14/2021, all streams and bayous in Harris County were within their banks, winds were dying down, and the worst part of the storm had moved off to the east.
I had 3.7 inches of rain in my gage for the last two days, which is largely consistent with other gages in the area. The gage at US59 and the West Fork San Jacinto recorded 3.04 inches over a two-day period. The rain was gentle and spread out. The heaviest downpour occurred Monday afternoon between 1 and 2 PM when we received .64 inches in a few minutes. But that volume was well within the capacity of storm sewers which can generally handle 1-2 inches per hour.
Mostly gentle rains were spread out enough to avoid flooding.
The stream gage at the same location showed the effects of lowering Lake Houston then the heavier parts of Nicholas’ rainfall.
The rest of the City and County fared pretty much the same, with the exception of the far south and eastern portions.
Two-day rainfall totals for Harris County during Nicholas. Note the sharp differences between north and south, and east and west.
Only Clear Creek came out of its banks as of 11 AM Tuesday morning.
The Kingwood Diversion Ditch was well within its banks. Photo taken at Kingwood Drive.
The diversion ditch was typical of every ditch I checked in Kingwood. All were well within their banks.
Satellite Imagery Shows Worst of Nicholas Now Off to East
Visible satellite images show the distinctive “comma shape” of Nicholas.
Visible satellite image as of 11 AM Houston time on 9/14/2021shows much of Houston area still covered in clouds...
…But an infrared image taken minutes later shows the heaviest rains have moved east. Infrared images measure the cloud tops.
This water vapor image taken at the same time confirms that the storm is focused east of us now.
Downed Trees, Debris, and Power Outages will be Biggest Problems for Most People
Gus, the poodle, inspects a downed tree at Alligator Alley in East End Park. Note all the smaller debris scattered on the trail, too. That was typical of streets in the Kingwood area today.Photo courtesy of John Knoezer.
It will take a while to recover from the storm, but nothing like Harvey, Imelda, or even May 7, 2019. As of this morning, there were power outages randomly affecting neighborhoods and commercial areas. Some places seemed to be operating normally; others still lacked power. About every third traffic light was blinking.
I personally lost power several times throughout the night for a total of about six hours.
What Next for Nicholas?
According to the National Hurricane Center at its 10 AM update this morning, doppler weather radar data from Houston and Lake Charles, along with surface observations, indicate that Nicholas has continued to weaken while moving farther inland.
The strongest winds recently reported near the Texas and Louisiana coasts have been 33-35 kt (40 mph) near Sabine Pass, Texas. The estimated central pressure of 1002 mb is based on surface observations in Houston. Further weakening is expected as Nicholas moves farther inland due to frictional effects, entrainment of very dry mid-level air from the southern Plains, and increasing southwesterly to westerly shear.
Nicholas should become a tropical depression by tonight and degenerate into a remnant low by late Wednesday. Nicholas is now moving northeastward at only 5 kt. and should move even more slowly on Wednesday and Thursday. It is possible that Nicholas could stall over southwestern or central Louisiana. Although the winds associated with Nicholas will weaken, heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue along the Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/14/2021 at 12:30 PM based on personal observations and data from NHC and HCFCD
1477 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 1 since Nicholas
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/20210914-RJR_8799.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2021-09-14 12:35:352021-09-14 12:50:06Nicholas Largely Spares Lake Houston Area
As of its 10 PM CDT update on 9/13/2021, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded Tropical Storm Nicholas to a hurricane.
Nicholas a Minimum Cat 1 Hurricane
A weather station at Matagorda Bay reported sustained winds of 66 kt (76 mph) with a gust to 83 kt. NHC expects no additional strengthening before the system makes landfall. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 2-3 days while Nicholas moves over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.
According to NHC, “Nicholas is currently moving through a weakness in a mid-level subtropical ridge. Within 12 to 24 hours, after Nicholas has moved inland, the ridge should weaken and leave Nicholas in an area of light steering currents. As a result, during the next couple of days, the cyclone should turn eastward and slow to a crawl near southwestern Louisiana.”
Nicholas should now reach the Houston Area with tropical-storm-force winds on Tuesday before slowing near the Louisiana border on Wednesday as a tropical depression..
The current 10 PM official forecast shows Nicholas moving more slowly than the previous forecast.
Key Messages
Heavy rainfall will impact portions of southeastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along the eastern Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and urban areas.
There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
Wind Force Probabilities Increasing
The probability of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds in the north Houston Area is very high.
Rain Forecast Less Extreme in North Houston Area
However, the Weather Prediction Center now shows major rain accumulations only near the coast and to the east of Houston.
I already have 1.47 inches in my rain gage for today. The estimates above are for three days.
Flash Flooding Risk Now Mostly Along Coast
The risk of flash flooding mirrors the rainfall map above. The Lake Houston Area now has only a slight chance of flooding.
All in all, if the maps above are accurate, the Lake Houston Area could still see 2 to 6 inches of rain tomorrow, but that’s far better than previously predicted.
This infrared image shows the areas of heaviest rainfall as of 11:26 PM CDT 9/13/2021
Areas near the coast remain under a storm surge warning.
So far, none of the streams or bayous in Harris County have come out of their banks. To stay on top of potential local flooding on Tuesday, visit the Harris County Flood Warning System.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 11 PM Monday, 9/13/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1476 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/030938_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2021-09-13 23:37:452021-09-14 00:10:27Nicholas, Now a Hurricane, Expected to Slow to a Crawl Near SW Louisiana
The 10 AM update from the National Hurricane Center shows that the eye of Nicholas is reforming yet again – further east from where it first reformed earlier today near Brownsville. This means that the cone of uncertainty for Nicholas has expanded. It now includes the entire Houston Area. And although chances of a hurricane are low, the hurricane watch has been extended northward to San Luis Pass.
Nicholas’ Cone Now Includes All of Houston
Remember that every place within the cone has an equal change of having the storm pass over it.
Main Threats from Tonight to Tomorrow Night
Bands of heavy rainfall and gusty winds continue to spread inland from the coast and will increase in frequency and intensity this afternoon into tonight. Core of Nicholas will move across southeast Texas….especially areas south of I-10 overnight into Tuesday with significant rainfall likely.
Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner warns that while Nicholas is not forecasted to become a hurricane, it is possible that it could landfall as a minimal hurricane….but this does NOT change the impacts.
Impact Predictions Remain Unchanged Since Last Update
Significant rains will begin early this evening and likely continue into Tuesday morning.
Rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour will be possible yielding rapid street flooding and significant rises on bayous and creeks.
Lindner’s main concern is watersheds south of I-10 (Clear Creek, Armand Bayou, Vince and Little Vince Bayous, Keegans Bayou, and possibly Brays Bayou). However, Lindner still sees risk north I-10.
Some bayous and creeks may overflow their banks. Structure flooding is possible tonight. The majority of the rainfall is going to be tonight into Tuesday morning.
Residents should stay where they are after 6:00 PM this evening and remain there through the duration of Nicholas.
Nicholas Largely Spares Lake Houston Area
Nicholas could have been much worse. In the days leading up to the storm, the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service made a series of worst-case projections that included up to 20 inches of rain in isolated spots. In the end, the best-case projections were far closer to reality…at least in the Lake Houston Area. In fairness, the closer the storm got to Houston, the more forecasters focused on potential problems near the coast.
Still, with hurricanes, you prepare for the worst and hope for the best. And in the end, we got the best of Nicholas. Even the power outages happened in the middle of the night when most people were asleep.
Results of Scouting Trip This Morning
A scouting trip this morning showed the worst never materialized here. That’s not to say that we were damage free. I saw numerous downed trees, signs blown over, and water filling roadside ditches. But, thankfully, no flooded homes! There may have been some; I just didn’t see any.
Modest Rainfall Spread Out over Time Kept Bayous in Banks
As of 11 AM on Tuesday 9/14/2021, all streams and bayous in Harris County were within their banks, winds were dying down, and the worst part of the storm had moved off to the east.
I had 3.7 inches of rain in my gage for the last two days, which is largely consistent with other gages in the area. The gage at US59 and the West Fork San Jacinto recorded 3.04 inches over a two-day period. The rain was gentle and spread out. The heaviest downpour occurred Monday afternoon between 1 and 2 PM when we received .64 inches in a few minutes. But that volume was well within the capacity of storm sewers which can generally handle 1-2 inches per hour.
The rest of the City and County fared pretty much the same, with the exception of the far south and eastern portions.
The diversion ditch was typical of every ditch I checked in Kingwood. All were well within their banks.
Satellite Imagery Shows Worst of Nicholas Now Off to East
Visible satellite images show the distinctive “comma shape” of Nicholas.
Downed Trees, Debris, and Power Outages will be Biggest Problems for Most People
It will take a while to recover from the storm, but nothing like Harvey, Imelda, or even May 7, 2019. As of this morning, there were power outages randomly affecting neighborhoods and commercial areas. Some places seemed to be operating normally; others still lacked power. About every third traffic light was blinking.
I personally lost power several times throughout the night for a total of about six hours.
What Next for Nicholas?
According to the National Hurricane Center at its 10 AM update this morning, doppler weather radar data from Houston and Lake Charles, along with surface observations, indicate that Nicholas has continued to weaken while moving farther inland.
The strongest winds recently reported near the Texas and Louisiana coasts have been 33-35 kt (40 mph) near Sabine Pass, Texas. The estimated central pressure of 1002 mb is based on surface observations in Houston. Further weakening is expected as Nicholas moves farther inland due to frictional effects, entrainment of very dry mid-level air from the southern Plains, and increasing southwesterly to westerly shear.
Nicholas should become a tropical depression by tonight and degenerate into a remnant low by late Wednesday. Nicholas is now moving northeastward at only 5 kt. and should move even more slowly on Wednesday and Thursday. It is possible that Nicholas could stall over southwestern or central Louisiana. Although the winds associated with Nicholas will weaken, heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue along the Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/14/2021 at 12:30 PM based on personal observations and data from NHC and HCFCD
1477 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 1 since Nicholas
Nicholas, Now a Hurricane, Expected to Slow to a Crawl Near SW Louisiana
As of its 10 PM CDT update on 9/13/2021, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded Tropical Storm Nicholas to a hurricane.
Nicholas a Minimum Cat 1 Hurricane
A weather station at Matagorda Bay reported sustained winds of 66 kt (76 mph) with a gust to 83 kt. NHC expects no additional strengthening before the system makes landfall. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 2-3 days while Nicholas moves over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.
The minimum sustained winds for a Category 1 hurricane are 74 mph.
Light Steering Currents Will Slow Nicholas
According to NHC, “Nicholas is currently moving through a weakness in a mid-level subtropical ridge. Within 12 to 24 hours, after Nicholas has moved inland, the ridge should weaken and leave Nicholas in an area of light steering currents. As a result, during the next couple of days, the cyclone should turn eastward and slow to a crawl near southwestern Louisiana.”
The current 10 PM official forecast shows Nicholas moving more slowly than the previous forecast.
Key Messages
Wind Force Probabilities Increasing
Rain Forecast Less Extreme in North Houston Area
I already have 1.47 inches in my rain gage for today. The estimates above are for three days.
Flash Flooding Risk Now Mostly Along Coast
All in all, if the maps above are accurate, the Lake Houston Area could still see 2 to 6 inches of rain tomorrow, but that’s far better than previously predicted.
Areas near the coast remain under a storm surge warning.
So far, none of the streams or bayous in Harris County have come out of their banks. To stay on top of potential local flooding on Tuesday, visit the Harris County Flood Warning System.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 11 PM Monday, 9/13/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1476 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Cone of Nicholas Shifts East, Now Includes Houston, Hurricane Watch Expanded
The 10 AM update from the National Hurricane Center shows that the eye of Nicholas is reforming yet again – further east from where it first reformed earlier today near Brownsville. This means that the cone of uncertainty for Nicholas has expanded. It now includes the entire Houston Area. And although chances of a hurricane are low, the hurricane watch has been extended northward to San Luis Pass.
Nicholas’ Cone Now Includes All of Houston
Main Threats from Tonight to Tomorrow Night
Bands of heavy rainfall and gusty winds continue to spread inland from the coast and will increase in frequency and intensity this afternoon into tonight. Core of Nicholas will move across southeast Texas….especially areas south of I-10 overnight into Tuesday with significant rainfall likely.
Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner warns that while Nicholas is not forecasted to become a hurricane, it is possible that it could landfall as a minimal hurricane….but this does NOT change the impacts.
Impact Predictions Remain Unchanged Since Last Update
Rainfall, wind, and storm surge impacts remain unchanged from my post earlier this morning.
Significant rains will begin early this evening and likely continue into Tuesday morning.
Rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour will be possible yielding rapid street flooding and significant rises on bayous and creeks.
Lindner’s main concern is watersheds south of I-10 (Clear Creek, Armand Bayou, Vince and Little Vince Bayous, Keegans Bayou, and possibly Brays Bayou). However, Lindner still sees risk north I-10.
Some bayous and creeks may overflow their banks. Structure flooding is possible tonight. The majority of the rainfall is going to be tonight into Tuesday morning.
Best Ways to Monitor Nicholas
Closely monitor bayou and creek conditions and rainfall trends. The best way to do that is through the Harris County Flood Warning System.
Also, closely monitor the National Hurricane Center website. This page contains their latest satellite image updates. During storms like this, they update them hourly. Here’s one from 11:46 AM Houston time.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/13/2021 at 10:30 AM and again at Noon
1476 Days since Hurricane Harvey