According to Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “The center of Nicholas has reformed overnight about 150 miles to the northwest of the previous center or just off the tip of the northeast Mexican coast. With the center reformation, the track timing has been moved up by about 12 hours.”
NOAA Satellite image taken at 7:06 am Houston time this morning.
Infrared image taken at 8:16 am Houston time this morning. Infrared imagery is useful for determining thunderstorm intensity. Strong to severe thunderstorms will normally have very cold tops.
Nicholas will now make landfall along the middle Texas coast later this afternoon or this evening.
National Hurricane Center
Said Lindner, “The center is now clearly defined on Brownsville radar and has been sampled by a USAF mission. The latest mission has found that the central pressure is starting to fall and is down to 1001 mb. Maximum sustained winds now reach 60mph. A large mass of very deep convection now extends several hundred miles into the Gulf of Mexico. Nicholas is moving toward the NNW around 14mph and will pass just offshore of Brownsville this morning. This will be a significant rainfall event for southeast Texas.”
Watches and Warnings Now in Effect
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas
Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
Port Aransas to Freeport Texas
Flash Flood Watch is in effect for:
Areas along and SE of US 59
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay
Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including Galveston Bay
Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay
Track
Forecasters predict a general northward motion toward the Matagorda Bay area followed by a gradual turn toward the NNE and NE. The forward motion of Nicholas will slow after moving inland over the TX coast.
Predicted track as of 7 am Houston time this morning. The storm should pass closest to Houston around mid-day tomorrow, but as a tropical depression. Note: the cone only indicates the potential path of the storm center, not the storm’s width, which can be much wider.
Intensity
Radar shows the Nicholas is attempting to form an inner core. However, moderate wind shear and dry air reaching into the center have slowed this process. With that said, Nicholas is now moving over very warm waters. Lindner predicts the shear may weaken over the next 8-10 hours. That may let Nicholas intensify close to hurricane strength at landfall. Nicholas should make landfall as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane.
Tropical storm force winds currently extend outward 115 miles…mainly to the east of the center.
NHC gives most of the Houston area a 30-60% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.
Impacts
Rainfall:
Significant rainfall is expected along and east of the track of Nicholas. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding.
While rainfall totals are indicated over the 5 -7 day period, much of the rainfall is expected to fall over a 2-3 day period starting later tonight.
Coastal counties: widespread 10-15 inches (isolated totals up to 20 inches)
South/East of US 59: widespread 8-12 inches (isolated totals up to 15 inches)
North of I-10: widespread 4-6 inches (isolated totals up to 8 inches)
After landfall, models do not aon how quickly the tropical cyclone will move northeastward out of Texas. The forward speed is important to the heavy rainfall forecast, and this trend will be one to watch.
The usually conservative Space City Weather team warns that the flood threat in this event may compare to Tropical Storm Imelda and the 2016 Memorial Day weekend.
Rainfall will generally be heaviest near the coast with diminishing amounts as you move inland. However, training bands could create much higher than predicted totals in northern areas.
Water vapor satellite image captured at 8:21 Houston time this morning.
The National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center gives most of the Houston area a moderate risk of flash flooding, but some areas near the coast will have a high risk.
Winds:
Tropical storm force winds are likely along the coast from Matagorda to Galveston Bay and inland to the US 59 corridor. Sustained winds in the 65-75mph range will be possible over the Matagorda Bay region northward into Jackson and possibly southern Wharton Counties with sustained tropical storm force winds spreading inland into portions of Harris, Fort Bend, and Colorado Counties.
Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive in the Houston area later this afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are currently near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast today, and Nicholas could reach the northwest Gulf coast as a hurricane. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. South Padre Island recently reported a wind gust to 45 mph.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach southern Texas this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or early Tuesday.
Tides:
Expect storm surge of 3-5 feet from Port O Connor to Sargent and 2-4 feet from Sargent to High Island above normal dry ground. Some significant inundation is possible around Matagorda Bay. Additionally, waves on top of the surge will result in significant beach erosion and wave run-up.
Areas NE of Galveston Bay could experience 2-4 feet of storm surge, while areas SW could experience 3-5.
Gradual Weakening Predicted
Nicholas should weaken after landfall, diminish into a tropical depression within a couple of days, and degenerate into a remnant low in about 3 days.
Key Messages
Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected.
There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm today, and could be near hurricane intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning by this afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to Freeport this afternoon and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning during the next few hours.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/13/2021 at 8AM based on information from HCFCD and NHC
1476 Days since Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2021-09-13 08:46:112021-09-13 08:56:24Eye of Nicholas Reforms, Timetable Moved Up
A USAF mission this morning found low-level circulation and a large area of 40-50mph winds over the western Gulf. Additionally, satellite images show an expansion of the scattered deep convection associated with the system. Based on this, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nicholas. The storm is moving NNW at 13mph and this motion is expected to continue today.
Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas TX
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Port Aransas TX to High Island TX including Matagorda and Galveston Bays.
Storm surge watch has been issued from the mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island TX
Flash Flood Watch from 7PM tonight through Tuesday night for most of Houston region
NOAA satellite image of Nicholas as of 10AM CDT Houston time.Nicholas’ track should bring the storm onshore near Matagorda Bay.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, predicts, “Nicholas will be moving over warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico in fairly favorable upper level conditions and steady intensification is likely up to landfall. Most models predict the system to become a mid-range tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center forecasts a 65mph tropical storm at landfall. A reasonable worst case potential is a category 1 hurricane, but at this time that looks unlikely.
Nicholas’ track places southeast Texas on the “dirty” side of the system with onshore winds and bands of heavy rainfall,” says Lindner.
Rainfall Starting Later Today
By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with a heavy rain threat continuing across coastal areas through the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall could produce areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding.
Hourly rainfall rates could be high during this time with 2-3 inches possible, which would lead to some flooding in more urban areas.
How far this storm moves inland will determine how far heavy rains advance on Monday. Says Lindner, “Certainly the coastal counties (Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, and Jackson) will see heavy rainfall, but this could extend inland into southern Liberty, southern Harris, Fort Bend, and Wharton counties also.” He predicts:
Coastal Counties: widespread 5-8 inches (isolated areas 10-15 inches)
South of I-10: widespread 3-6 inches (isolated areas 8-12 inches)
North of I-10: widespread 2-4 inches (isolated areas 6 inches)
5-Day Forecasted Accumulated RainfallThe NWS Weather Prediction Center shows heavy rain and flash flooding are possible for most of the upper Texas coast through mid-week.
Flood Potential
Lindner says, “Given the tropical moisture in place hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches will be possible under the stronger cells which will lead to quick accumulations. While grounds are dry initially, waves of rainfall will gradually saturate the soils leading the increasing run-off. Flooding will be possible, especially across the coastal counties and areas south of I-10 where the greatest rainfall is most likely at the moment.”
Most of the Houston area will have a slight (10%) chance of flash flooding for the next three days.
Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Should Arrive in Houston Tuesday Morning
Tropical storm force winds should hit the Houston area Tuesday morning.
2-4 Feet of Storm Surge Likely in Galveston Bay
Nicholas should bring 2-4 feet of storm surge to the upper Texas coast.
Posted on 9/12/2021 by Bob Rehak based on Information from NHC and HCFCD
1475 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Nickolas-at-Formation.jpg?fit=1000%2C719&ssl=17191000adminadmin2021-09-12 10:52:232021-09-12 11:30:56Tropical Storm Nicholas Forms in Gulf
According to the National Hurricane Center, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered around the Yucatan has a 70% chance of turning into a tropical cyclone in the next two days. NHC gives it an 80% chance of formation within five days.
Although upper-level winds are not currently conducive for tropical cyclone development. However, they should become more favorable during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water. However, because the storm has no organized center at this time, where it will make landfall is hard to predict.
As of 7am CDT Saturday, September 11, 2021
“Global forecast models agree that a surface low will form, but where exactly remains in question,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
The majority of the models predict the storm will focus on the western Gulf coastline. However, some models bring the storm closer to the Houston area.
Regardless, counter-clockwise rotation around any tropical cyclone should put Houston on the dirty side.
Heavy Rains Could Produce Flash and Urban Flooding
People along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. This disturbance should produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
According to Lindner, “By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast. Expect rain over most of coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash and urban flooding.”
“Significant rainfall will be possible from Monday through Wednesday with excessive short-term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour under any banding, training, or clustering of stronger cells.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Expect very wet days early next week, especially near the coast. How far inland the heavy rains extend will depend on the degree of tropical cyclone development and the track of the storm. At this time, with high uncertainty, forecasters expect the heaviest rains near the coast with lower amounts inland.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be common over much of the area with much higher totals of 5-10 inches near the coast. Isolated totals in certain areas could exceed 10 inches.
While grounds are generally dry over the area, the magnitude of the rainfall in a short period of time could result in significant run-off generation especially over urban areas. Flooding concerns will increase as grounds become saturated early next week.
Winds/Seas/Tides
The high degree of uncertainty on where where any tropical cyclone will strike also affects winds, seas, and tides. But at the present, Lindner predicts easterly and southeasterly winds today into Sunday. He sees them increasing into the 20-30 mph range with seas building 6-10ft offshore by late Sunday into Monday.
Larger swells moving onto the coast will likely lead to some wave run-up and minor coastal flooding during high tides from late Sunday into early next week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/11/2021based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1474 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/two_atl_5d0-1.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2021-09-11 09:14:002021-09-11 18:25:44Tropical Cyclone Formation Likely over Gulf
Eye of Nicholas Reforms, Timetable Moved Up
8am CDT, 9/13/2021
According to Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “The center of Nicholas has reformed overnight about 150 miles to the northwest of the previous center or just off the tip of the northeast Mexican coast. With the center reformation, the track timing has been moved up by about 12 hours.”
Said Lindner, “The center is now clearly defined on Brownsville radar and has been sampled by a USAF mission. The latest mission has found that the central pressure is starting to fall and is down to 1001 mb. Maximum sustained winds now reach 60mph. A large mass of very deep convection now extends several hundred miles into the Gulf of Mexico. Nicholas is moving toward the NNW around 14mph and will pass just offshore of Brownsville this morning. This will be a significant rainfall event for southeast Texas.”
Watches and Warnings Now in Effect
Track
Forecasters predict a general northward motion toward the Matagorda Bay area followed by a gradual turn toward the NNE and NE. The forward motion of Nicholas will slow after moving inland over the TX coast.
Intensity
Radar shows the Nicholas is attempting to form an inner core. However, moderate wind shear and dry air reaching into the center have slowed this process. With that said, Nicholas is now moving over very warm waters. Lindner predicts the shear may weaken over the next 8-10 hours. That may let Nicholas intensify close to hurricane strength at landfall. Nicholas should make landfall as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane.
Tropical storm force winds currently extend outward 115 miles…mainly to the east of the center.
Impacts
Rainfall:
Significant rainfall is expected along and east of the track of Nicholas. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding.
While rainfall totals are indicated over the 5 -7 day period, much of the rainfall is expected to fall over a 2-3 day period starting later tonight.
After landfall, models do not aon how quickly the tropical cyclone will move northeastward out of Texas. The forward speed is important to the heavy rainfall forecast, and this trend will be one to watch.
The usually conservative Space City Weather team warns that the flood threat in this event may compare to Tropical Storm Imelda and the 2016 Memorial Day weekend.
Winds:
Tropical storm force winds are likely along the coast from Matagorda to Galveston Bay and inland to the US 59 corridor. Sustained winds in the 65-75mph range will be possible over the Matagorda Bay region northward into Jackson and possibly southern Wharton Counties with sustained tropical storm force winds spreading inland into portions of Harris, Fort Bend, and Colorado Counties.
Maximum sustained winds are currently near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast today, and Nicholas could reach the northwest Gulf coast as a hurricane. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. South Padre Island recently reported a wind gust to 45 mph.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach southern Texas this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or early Tuesday.
Tides:
Expect storm surge of 3-5 feet from Port O Connor to Sargent and 2-4 feet from Sargent to High Island above normal dry ground. Some significant inundation is possible around Matagorda Bay. Additionally, waves on top of the surge will result in significant beach erosion and wave run-up.
Gradual Weakening Predicted
Nicholas should weaken after landfall, diminish into a tropical depression within a couple of days, and degenerate into a remnant low in about 3 days.
Key Messages
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/13/2021 at 8AM based on information from HCFCD and NHC
1476 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Tropical Storm Nicholas Forms in Gulf
A USAF mission this morning found low-level circulation and a large area of 40-50mph winds over the western Gulf. Additionally, satellite images show an expansion of the scattered deep convection associated with the system. Based on this, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nicholas. The storm is moving NNW at 13mph and this motion is expected to continue today.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, predicts, “Nicholas will be moving over warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico in fairly favorable upper level conditions and steady intensification is likely up to landfall. Most models predict the system to become a mid-range tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center forecasts a 65mph tropical storm at landfall. A reasonable worst case potential is a category 1 hurricane, but at this time that looks unlikely.
Nicholas’ track places southeast Texas on the “dirty” side of the system with onshore winds and bands of heavy rainfall,” says Lindner.
Rainfall Starting Later Today
By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with a heavy rain threat continuing across coastal areas through the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall could produce areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding.
Hourly rainfall rates could be high during this time with 2-3 inches possible, which would lead to some flooding in more urban areas.
How far this storm moves inland will determine how far heavy rains advance on Monday. Says Lindner, “Certainly the coastal counties (Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, and Jackson) will see heavy rainfall, but this could extend inland into southern Liberty, southern Harris, Fort Bend, and Wharton counties also.” He predicts:
Flood Potential
Lindner says, “Given the tropical moisture in place hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches will be possible under the stronger cells which will lead to quick accumulations. While grounds are dry initially, waves of rainfall will gradually saturate the soils leading the increasing run-off. Flooding will be possible, especially across the coastal counties and areas south of I-10 where the greatest rainfall is most likely at the moment.”
Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Should Arrive in Houston Tuesday Morning
2-4 Feet of Storm Surge Likely in Galveston Bay
Posted on 9/12/2021 by Bob Rehak based on Information from NHC and HCFCD
1475 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Tropical Cyclone Formation Likely over Gulf
According to the National Hurricane Center, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered around the Yucatan has a 70% chance of turning into a tropical cyclone in the next two days. NHC gives it an 80% chance of formation within five days.
Environment Becoming Conducive for Development
Although upper-level winds are not currently conducive for tropical cyclone development. However, they should become more favorable during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water. However, because the storm has no organized center at this time, where it will make landfall is hard to predict.
“Global forecast models agree that a surface low will form, but where exactly remains in question,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
The majority of the models predict the storm will focus on the western Gulf coastline. However, some models bring the storm closer to the Houston area.
Regardless, counter-clockwise rotation around any tropical cyclone should put Houston on the dirty side.
Heavy Rains Could Produce Flash and Urban Flooding
People along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. This disturbance should produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
According to Lindner, “By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast. Expect rain over most of coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash and urban flooding.”
Expect very wet days early next week, especially near the coast. How far inland the heavy rains extend will depend on the degree of tropical cyclone development and the track of the storm. At this time, with high uncertainty, forecasters expect the heaviest rains near the coast with lower amounts inland.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be common over much of the area with much higher totals of 5-10 inches near the coast. Isolated totals in certain areas could exceed 10 inches.
While grounds are generally dry over the area, the magnitude of the rainfall in a short period of time could result in significant run-off generation especially over urban areas. Flooding concerns will increase as grounds become saturated early next week.
Winds/Seas/Tides
The high degree of uncertainty on where where any tropical cyclone will strike also affects winds, seas, and tides. But at the present, Lindner predicts easterly and southeasterly winds today into Sunday. He sees them increasing into the 20-30 mph range with seas building 6-10ft offshore by late Sunday into Monday.
Larger swells moving onto the coast will likely lead to some wave run-up and minor coastal flooding during high tides from late Sunday into early next week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/11/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1474 Days since Hurricane Harvey