I received an email from Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, around 1PM today that warned of possible severe weather from next Monday afternoon into early Tuesday Morning. As I explored it more, I also came across a fascinating academic study about the communication of weather risk that you may want to share with friends and relatives. One of the key findings: mobile home owners may need more response time than typical tornado warnings provide.
Possible Tornados, Hail, Damaging Winds, Street Flooding Early Next Week
“All severe modes will be in play Monday afternoon and evening including tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The tornado threat appears highest north of HWY 105. The severe threat will be lowest near the coast and around Matagorda Bay,” said Lindner. “Heavy rainfall is also becoming an increasing concern.”
While most models show from one half to two inches of rain around Bush Intercontinental Airport, one model predicts four inches. Lindner predicts 1-2 inches of widespread rain north of I-10 with isolated totals of 3-4 inches possible. South of I-10 rainfall amounts of .50-1.0 inch will be possible.
“Given the dry grounds in place, some of this rainfall will soak in,” says Lindner. “But potential for high hourly rainfall rates poses an urban street flooding threat.” In other words, rain may fall faster than it can soak in or drain off, and then collect in streets.
NWS Cites Conditions Favorable for Supercell Formation
The NWS Storm Prediction Center contains a wealth of information for weather aficionados including academic publications on meteorology. Mindful of how a January tornado struck Kingwood at 1:30AM and also how the Lake Conroe release during Harvey arrived in the middle of the night, the following study caught my eye:
All researchers work in Norman, Oklahoma. They studied what time of day the public was least confident about receiving and responding to tornado warnings. Answer: between midnight and 4:00AM. Not a big surprise there. Most people are sleeping then. But the authors also studied several related questions:
Where do most overnight tornados take place?
Who is most at risk?
How and when can you best communicate that risk to protect lives?
Percent “very” or “extremely” confident in their ability to respond to a tornado warning by time of day. Shading indicates the 95% confidence level.
Findings
The authors found the southeastern portion of the US most susceptible to nocturnal tornadoes. East Texas is on the edge of the highest risk area. They also found that:
People’s confidence in their ability to receive warnings is lowest when the risk is highest for these storms.
The Southeast has a high rate of mobile home ownership, but mobile home owners don’t always perceive that they have higher risk, a perception that makes them especially vulnerable to tragic outcomes during nocturnal tornado events.
The number of weather resources that an individual had access to affected weather awareness and preparedness more than any demographic characteristics.
Forecasters and communicators should continue to emphasize the use of multiple forms of communication. They suggest “weather radios, cell phone apps, Wireless Emergency Alerts, and other forms of passive notification systems. Increased use of these tools will ultimately increase the likelihood of someone receiving warning information while they are asleep or otherwise occupied.”
The challenges of nocturnal tornadoes cannot be addressed if residents do not receive forecasts or warnings in the first place.
People will take action not just on forecasts, but their personal perception of risk. More communication about the degree of risk may help people make better decisions.
Forecasters should communicate the degree of risk before 10PM so that people can prepare severe weather plans before they go to sleep.
People in mobile housing need more response time than typical tornado warnings provide.
These findings should help inform forecasters and emergency managers about communities that need more time to respond to overnight tornado events. In the meantime, change the battery in that old weather radio! It’s springtime in Texas.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/19/2022
1663 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Screen-Shot-2022-03-19-at-2.47.22-PM.png?fit=2096%2C1168&ssl=111682096adminadmin2022-03-19 16:07:072022-03-19 16:16:33Severe Weather Predicted Next Monday into Tuesday
Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) approved the Texas General Land Office’s (GLO) amended plan for Community Development Block Grant Mitigation (CDBG-MIT). The amended plan allocates $750 million in funding for Harris County and an $488 million to the Houston-Galveston Area Council for additional mitigation projects in the region. The funds allocated to the county should now mean that the 2018 flood bond is fully funded, if numbers provided last month on partner funding to date are accurate.
George P. Bush Quote on Process
According to a press release issued by the GLO at 7PM, 3/18/22, “Ensuring Texans receive disaster recovery and mitigation funding in a timely manner to recover from Hurricane Harvey has always been my top priority,” said GLO Commissioner Bush. “The Biden Administration’s politically weaponized Department of Urban Development and Housing has forced us to fight through mazes of red tape to secure this direct allocation for Houstonians. I will continue to fight to send money to Texans as quickly as possible. The $750 million allocation will go directly to Harris County for projects that help mitigate future flooding events, creating a stronger more resilient Texas.”
George P. Bush, Commissioner, Texas General Land Office, 2019 photo
$1.138 Billion Total
HUD’s approval of the latest Harvey Action Plan brings the total infrastructure and mitigation investments in Harris County to more than $1.1 billion. HUD’s approval of the GLO’s plan to provide $750,000,000 to Harris County is in addition to HUD’s direct allocation of $61,884,000 to the City of Houston, plus $117,213,862.96 in CDBG-MIT awards for Harris County projects, plus $209,221,800 in infrastructure funds from CDBG-DR, equals $1,138,319,662.96 in total investment in projects within Harris County. Additionally, H-GAC continues to develop its method of distribution on more than $488 million for mitigation projects within the greater Houston region.
Bush first requested a direct allocation for Harris County in May of 2021 after the county received very little money from the first round of competition for HUD. A direct allocation would have allowed Harris County to work directly with HUD and taken the GLO out of the loop. However, HUD reportedly insisted that the GLO remain involved. Subsequently, the GLO developed a 650-page action plan for the $750 million. However, HUD found it insufficient. As of early this week, the action plan exceeded 1000 pages, according to a GLO spokesperson. That apparently provided HUD what it needed. HUD notified the GLO in a letter received after 5PM today.
Method of Distribution Must Still be Developed
However, Harris County won’t get all the money immediately.
Since last November, H-GAC has been developing something called a MOD (Method of Distribution) for its allocation. However, according to the GLO, because of the expense involved, Harris County has delayed developing its MOD until the the award was approved by HUD.
Harris County’s next step will be to develop its MOD which describes where the money will go, how it will be used, and who will get it. GLO will review that and forward it to HUD. After HUD approves the MOD, HUD still won’t write a check for $750 million to the county. The money will be reimbursed to the county in batches as it is spent on approved projects.
Flood Bond Close to Fully Funded Even without Resilience Trust
Still, this will go a long way toward fulfilling the potential shortfall in partner funding for the Harris County Flood Bond. Of the original $5 billion bond, half is being paid for by Harris County taxpayers. The County hoped to get local, state, and federal partners to fund the other half.
Last July, when it looked like the $750 million might not materialize, Harris County Commissioners approved a Flood Resilience Trust that committed $833 million from the Toll Road Authority and other Harris County sources of funding. That, along with partner funding already committed, was enough to keep construction of Harris County Flood Bond projects rolling through approximately 2026.
From a presentation to the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force in February 2022.
Today’s approval should make the flood bond fully funded if the numbers above are accurate. That should come as good news for all citizens who have been fighting for limited dollars. With money in the trust, this should accelerate mitigation projects throughout the county. And even fund some not identified in the original bond!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/18/2022
1662 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/George_P._Bush_crop.jpg?fit=930%2C1549&ssl=11549930adminadmin2022-03-18 20:45:212022-03-18 21:05:20HUD Approves $750 Million to Harris County for Flood Mitigation
Spring Creek Flood Control Dams are back in the news. The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) recently announced the first of three meetings related to a feasibility study. So save the date – April 7.
According to Matt Barrett of the SJRA, this feasibility study is a continuation of the Spring Creek Siting Study which came out of the San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan project (SJMDP). The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) and multiple partner agencies including SJRA developed the Master Drainage Plan.
Overview of Feasibility Study
The Spring Creek Siting Study from December 2020 explored multiple alternative locations that could provide flood-mitigation benefits to the Spring Creek watershed. Two of the more cost-effective were dams on Walnut and Birch Creeks.
The Spring Creek Flood Control Dams Feasibility Study will include:
A conceptual design for each dam
Benefits and costs for each dam and a combination of the two dams.
The goal: to determine the most feasible and economical alternative(s) for possible future design and construction.
The cost of the study is estimated at $1 million. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) grant program will provide half. City of Humble, HCFCD, and five (5) Municipal Utility Districts will fund the other half. SJRA is performing in-kind services to reduce the local match amount to be funded by the Partners.
One Crucial Step of Many
This project is currently only in the feasibility phase. Construction of one or both dams, if feasible, would likely not occur for several years. Partners still need to identify a project sponsor and funding. They also need to perform final design, obtain environmental permits, and acquire land.
Details of Public Input Meeting
Public input and participation are critical components of this study, and SJRA wants to hear from you. A public meeting related to the study will be held on/at the following date and location:
Thursday, April 7, 2022
6:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.
Fields Store Community Center
26098 FM 362
Waller, Texas 77484
The meeting will be in an open-house format, allowing members of the public to come and go at their convenience at any time between 6:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. A five-minute, high-level, project-summary presentation will be given at 6:00 p.m., 6:30 p.m., 7:00 p.m., and 7:30 p.m.
Between these presentations, project team members will answer questions and collect input. If you can’t attend in person, you can view the summary presentation on SJRA’s Facebook page following the meeting. You may also submit questions via email and the project team will answer them.
Project Location
Below, see preliminary maps. These project areas could change based on the results of study efforts.
The proposed Spring Creek Flood Control Dams would lie in far northeastern Waller County, a few miles west of Magnolia in Montgomery County.
The next map shows parcels of land that partners would need to acquire to develop the project(s).
Preliminary map of Birch and Walnut Creeks flood control dams. Extent of inundation limits subject to change during study.One more public engagement meeting will be held this summer. The third will happen after partners release the draft report in February, next year.
Projected Benefits of Projects
As presently conceived, the Birch Creek dam could reduce water surface elevations by a half foot in a 100-year storm for almost 26 miles downstream. The larger Walnut Creek dam could produce a similar benefit for 41 miles downstream.
Each would cut the annual chance of exceedance (ACE) in half for the people in the affected areas. Thus, a hundred year storm would only have the impact of a 50-year storm.
Barrett currently estimates that the Birch Creek Dam could remove 815 structures from the 100-year floodplain and the Walnut Creek Dam could remove 1205. However, he also points out that those numbers will likely change as a result of updated modeling in the current study now underway.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Preliminary-Locations-for-Spring-Creek-Flood-Control-Dams.jpg?fit=1200%2C796&ssl=17961200adminadmin2022-03-18 12:17:572022-03-18 13:53:06April 7 Meeting on Spring Creek Flood Control Dams
Severe Weather Predicted Next Monday into Tuesday
I received an email from Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, around 1PM today that warned of possible severe weather from next Monday afternoon into early Tuesday Morning. As I explored it more, I also came across a fascinating academic study about the communication of weather risk that you may want to share with friends and relatives. One of the key findings: mobile home owners may need more response time than typical tornado warnings provide.
Possible Tornados, Hail, Damaging Winds, Street Flooding Early Next Week
“All severe modes will be in play Monday afternoon and evening including tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The tornado threat appears highest north of HWY 105. The severe threat will be lowest near the coast and around Matagorda Bay,” said Lindner. “Heavy rainfall is also becoming an increasing concern.”
While most models show from one half to two inches of rain around Bush Intercontinental Airport, one model predicts four inches. Lindner predicts 1-2 inches of widespread rain north of I-10 with isolated totals of 3-4 inches possible. South of I-10 rainfall amounts of .50-1.0 inch will be possible.
“Given the dry grounds in place, some of this rainfall will soak in,” says Lindner. “But potential for high hourly rainfall rates poses an urban street flooding threat.” In other words, rain may fall faster than it can soak in or drain off, and then collect in streets.
NWS Cites Conditions Favorable for Supercell Formation
The National Weather Services Storm Prediction Center cites atmospheric conditions favorable to the formation of supercells, such as those that tracked across Harris County in January. Along with these supercells, they discuss the increasing potential for large hail and tornados Monday afternoon.
The Intersection of Weather and Communications
The NWS Storm Prediction Center contains a wealth of information for weather aficionados including academic publications on meteorology. Mindful of how a January tornado struck Kingwood at 1:30AM and also how the Lake Conroe release during Harvey arrived in the middle of the night, the following study caught my eye:
All researchers work in Norman, Oklahoma. They studied what time of day the public was least confident about receiving and responding to tornado warnings. Answer: between midnight and 4:00AM. Not a big surprise there. Most people are sleeping then. But the authors also studied several related questions:
Findings
The authors found the southeastern portion of the US most susceptible to nocturnal tornadoes. East Texas is on the edge of the highest risk area. They also found that:
These findings should help inform forecasters and emergency managers about communities that need more time to respond to overnight tornado events. In the meantime, change the battery in that old weather radio! It’s springtime in Texas.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/19/2022
1663 Days since Hurricane Harvey
HUD Approves $750 Million to Harris County for Flood Mitigation
Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) approved the Texas General Land Office’s (GLO) amended plan for Community Development Block Grant Mitigation (CDBG-MIT). The amended plan allocates $750 million in funding for Harris County and an $488 million to the Houston-Galveston Area Council for additional mitigation projects in the region. The funds allocated to the county should now mean that the 2018 flood bond is fully funded, if numbers provided last month on partner funding to date are accurate.
George P. Bush Quote on Process
According to a press release issued by the GLO at 7PM, 3/18/22, “Ensuring Texans receive disaster recovery and mitigation funding in a timely manner to recover from Hurricane Harvey has always been my top priority,” said GLO Commissioner Bush. “The Biden Administration’s politically weaponized Department of Urban Development and Housing has forced us to fight through mazes of red tape to secure this direct allocation for Houstonians. I will continue to fight to send money to Texans as quickly as possible. The $750 million allocation will go directly to Harris County for projects that help mitigate future flooding events, creating a stronger more resilient Texas.”
$1.138 Billion Total
HUD’s approval of the latest Harvey Action Plan brings the total infrastructure and mitigation investments in Harris County to more than $1.1 billion. HUD’s approval of the GLO’s plan to provide $750,000,000 to Harris County is in addition to HUD’s direct allocation of $61,884,000 to the City of Houston, plus $117,213,862.96 in CDBG-MIT awards for Harris County projects, plus $209,221,800 in infrastructure funds from CDBG-DR, equals $1,138,319,662.96 in total investment in projects within Harris County. Additionally, H-GAC continues to develop its method of distribution on more than $488 million for mitigation projects within the greater Houston region.
Bush first requested a direct allocation for Harris County in May of 2021 after the county received very little money from the first round of competition for HUD. A direct allocation would have allowed Harris County to work directly with HUD and taken the GLO out of the loop. However, HUD reportedly insisted that the GLO remain involved. Subsequently, the GLO developed a 650-page action plan for the $750 million. However, HUD found it insufficient. As of early this week, the action plan exceeded 1000 pages, according to a GLO spokesperson. That apparently provided HUD what it needed. HUD notified the GLO in a letter received after 5PM today.
Method of Distribution Must Still be Developed
However, Harris County won’t get all the money immediately.
Since last November, H-GAC has been developing something called a MOD (Method of Distribution) for its allocation. However, according to the GLO, because of the expense involved, Harris County has delayed developing its MOD until the the award was approved by HUD.
Harris County’s next step will be to develop its MOD which describes where the money will go, how it will be used, and who will get it. GLO will review that and forward it to HUD. After HUD approves the MOD, HUD still won’t write a check for $750 million to the county. The money will be reimbursed to the county in batches as it is spent on approved projects.
Flood Bond Close to Fully Funded Even without Resilience Trust
Still, this will go a long way toward fulfilling the potential shortfall in partner funding for the Harris County Flood Bond. Of the original $5 billion bond, half is being paid for by Harris County taxpayers. The County hoped to get local, state, and federal partners to fund the other half.
Last July, when it looked like the $750 million might not materialize, Harris County Commissioners approved a Flood Resilience Trust that committed $833 million from the Toll Road Authority and other Harris County sources of funding. That, along with partner funding already committed, was enough to keep construction of Harris County Flood Bond projects rolling through approximately 2026.
Today’s approval should make the flood bond fully funded if the numbers above are accurate. That should come as good news for all citizens who have been fighting for limited dollars. With money in the trust, this should accelerate mitigation projects throughout the county. And even fund some not identified in the original bond!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/18/2022
1662 Days since Hurricane Harvey
April 7 Meeting on Spring Creek Flood Control Dams
Spring Creek Flood Control Dams are back in the news. The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) recently announced the first of three meetings related to a feasibility study. So save the date – April 7.
According to Matt Barrett of the SJRA, this feasibility study is a continuation of the Spring Creek Siting Study which came out of the San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan project (SJMDP). The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) and multiple partner agencies including SJRA developed the Master Drainage Plan.
Overview of Feasibility Study
The Spring Creek Siting Study from December 2020 explored multiple alternative locations that could provide flood-mitigation benefits to the Spring Creek watershed. Two of the more cost-effective were dams on Walnut and Birch Creeks.
The Spring Creek Flood Control Dams Feasibility Study will include:
The goal: to determine the most feasible and economical alternative(s) for possible future design and construction.
The cost of the study is estimated at $1 million. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) grant program will provide half. City of Humble, HCFCD, and five (5) Municipal Utility Districts will fund the other half. SJRA is performing in-kind services to reduce the local match amount to be funded by the Partners.
One Crucial Step of Many
This project is currently only in the feasibility phase. Construction of one or both dams, if feasible, would likely not occur for several years. Partners still need to identify a project sponsor and funding. They also need to perform final design, obtain environmental permits, and acquire land.
Details of Public Input Meeting
Public input and participation are critical components of this study, and SJRA wants to hear from you. A public meeting related to the study will be held on/at the following date and location:
Thursday, April 7, 2022
6:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.
Fields Store Community Center
26098 FM 362
Waller, Texas 77484
The meeting will be in an open-house format, allowing members of the public to come and go at their convenience at any time between 6:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. A five-minute, high-level, project-summary presentation will be given at 6:00 p.m., 6:30 p.m., 7:00 p.m., and 7:30 p.m.
Between these presentations, project team members will answer questions and collect input. If you can’t attend in person, you can view the summary presentation on SJRA’s Facebook page following the meeting. You may also submit questions via email and the project team will answer them.
Project Location
Below, see preliminary maps. These project areas could change based on the results of study efforts.
The next map shows parcels of land that partners would need to acquire to develop the project(s).
Projected Benefits of Projects
As presently conceived, the Birch Creek dam could reduce water surface elevations by a half foot in a 100-year storm for almost 26 miles downstream. The larger Walnut Creek dam could produce a similar benefit for 41 miles downstream.
Barrett currently estimates that the Birch Creek Dam could remove 815 structures from the 100-year floodplain and the Walnut Creek Dam could remove 1205. However, he also points out that those numbers will likely change as a result of updated modeling in the current study now underway.
How much would these dams benefit people in the Lake Houston Area? Barrett admits the impact would be small that far downstream. But he also points out that these represent the first two of 16 similar projects proposed in the Master Drainage Plan, and that they could have a major cumulative impact.
Every little bit helps. Even if you can’t attend the meeting, I hope you submit a public comment via email in support of the project.
How to Learn More and Provide Public Comment
For a fact sheet on each of the two proposed dams, click here.
For more information about the Spring Creek Flood Control Dams Feasibility Study, please visit www.SpringCreekStudy.com.
You can submit comments at the public meeting and throughout the duration of the study. Email comments to floodmanagementdivision@sjra.net, or submitted online at www.SpringCreekStudy.com.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/18/2022
1662 Days since Hurricane Harvey