The factors that create hurricane strength may not be the same factors that create intense tropical rainfall. According to NOAA, warm sea surface temperatures can increase storm intensity. Meanwhile, the absence of steering currents and wind sheer can cause even weak storms to stall over an area and dump huge amounts of rainfall.
Two things happened this week to bring these factors into focus.
First, sea surface temperatures in June have already reached those not usually observed until late July or August in Galveston.
Second, this week marks the anniversary of Tropical Storm Allison, which set rainfall records for its era and caused all the flood maps to be redrawn (until Harvey). That prompted more research into meteorological factors that affect hurricanes, their formation, and their destructiveness.
Record Heat Tied to Higher than Usual Sea Surface Temperatures
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, released a report this morning that said, recently all along the Texas coast, the nighttime lows have reached near record highs. Galveston, for instance, has failed to fall below 83 degrees for the last 72 hours and the low yesterday was only 84 degrees which is 1 degree shy of the all-time high “record low” of 85 from last summer.
These extremely high “low temps,” says Lindner, are more typical of August than June and directly tied to the nearshore water temperature which is already 83-86 degrees along the Texas coast.
28-30 degrees Celsius translates to 83-86 degrees Fahrenheit.Source: NOAA.
That raised two questions for me:
Are sea surface temperatures warmer than normal?
If so, how does that affect hurricane formation?
Sea Surface Temperatures Much Higher than Normal
I first researched sea surface temperature anomalies. You can see from the map below that the entire tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico show higher-than-normal temperatures. How much higher?
Anomalies are departures from normal. This map shows anomalies for today. Source: NOAA.
Most of the upper Gulf Coast is 1-2 degrees Celsius above normal. That translates to about 2-4 degrees Fahrenheit.
In order for a hurricane to form, two things must be present: a weather disturbance, such as a thunderstorm, that pulls in warm surface air from all directions and water at the ocean’s surface that is at least 80° Fahrenheit (27° Celsius).
Because warm air and warm seawater spawn these storms, they form over tropical oceans where seawater is hot enough to give the storms strength and the rotation of the Earth makes them spin.
Hurricanes start simply with the evaporation of warm seawater, which pumps water into the lower atmosphere.
Converging winds then collide and turn upwards, where water vapor starts to condense. That releases heat that warms the surrounding air, causing it to rise as well. That causes even more warm, moist air to spiral in to replace it.
As long as the base of this weather system remains over warm water and its top is not sheared apart by high-altitude winds, it will strengthen and grow. More and more heat and water will pump into the air. The pressure at its core will drop further and further, sucking in wind at ever-increasing speeds.
Eventually, hurricanes turn toward mid-latitudes, i.e., Texas. When they move over cold water or land, they lose touch with the hot water that powers them. The hurricane then weakens and breaks apart.
Recent studies have shown a link between ocean surface temperatures and tropical storm intensity – warmer waters fuel more energetic storms.
NOAA
Other Factors Correlate with Higher Rainfall
Energy and intensity, however, do not correlate directly with rainfall. Other factors play larger roles in creating monster rainfall rates.
A slow moving storm that meanders or stalls can dump more rain than fast moving storms that blow through areas quickly. Tropical Storm Allison makes an excellent example.
This week is the anniversary of Tropical Storm Allison (June 5-10, 2001). NOAA has a special web page that tells the story of Allison and its destructive rains. Before Harvey, Allison set records for much, but not all, of the Houston Region. Greens Bayou at Mount Houston Parkway, for instance, received 38.78 inches of rain.
Allison lingered around the Houston area for days, went up to Lufkin, and then backtracked over already saturated ground before moving east.
The absence of strong steering currents allowed Allison to stall and dump huge rainfall amounts on Houston.
“The devastating flooding from Allison is a stark reminder that rainfall from tropical cyclones does not depend upon the strength of the system.”
NOAA
The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center found six factors that impact the rainfall potential of landfalling tropical cyclones:
Storm track (or movement)
Time of day
Storm size
Topography
Wind shear
Nearby weather features
Between June 5th and the 9th, the two major factors leading to heavy rainfall over Southeast Texas turned out to be Allison’s slow movement and the time of day. These were aided by an abundance of available Gulf moisture.
Tropical Storm Allison 5-day rainfall totals in 2001 related primarily to the storms track and slowness, caused by the absence of steering currents and wind sheer.
Time of day deserves more explanation. On Day 4 of Allison, the sun cleared over much of Houston. That increased daytime heating. And the heat caused feeder bands to intensify over areas that previously flooded. No one died during the first three days of the storm. But 22 died during the last two as rainfall from those bands reformed over areas already badly flooded.
Give Your Kids a Science Assignment for the Summer
Weather is one of nature’s biggest puzzles. I find it endlessly fascinating. If your kids are bored already by the summer’s heat, give them a science assignment. Have them research NOAA’s website to learn more about hurricanes and the heat. Hint: ask them how that bright red area in the northern Pacific (in the SST anomalies map). Then ask them how that’s related to drought, trade winds, wind-sheer, and predictions for an above-average hurricane season.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/9/22 based on information from NOAA.
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has completed condemnation proceedings on the last unit in another townhome complex on Marina Drive in Forest Cove. They will schedule the units for demolition as early as next week.
Forest Cove Townhomes destroyed by Harvey on Marina Drive could soon be demolished. Red rectangle contains censored graffiti.
Amy Stone, a spokesperson for HCFCD said, “There were nearly 90 units in that community! All required appraisals, offers, negotiations, closings and demolitions.”
I previously reported that some owners abandoned their properties and that HCFCD could not locate them. Those units had to go through condemnation proceedings before demolition could begin.
Stone reports that two complexes remain. HCFCD closed on the last unit in one last month and completed the site inspection last Thursday. “We are waiting for the asbestos survey report to come back. We should have a demolition date by next week,” said Stone.
Asked about the other complex, Stone reported, “1020 Marina Dr. will be demolished once the last unit is purchased. This unit is currently in condemnation.”
HCFCD and FEMA like buyouts to be voluntary wherever possible. But in the case of missing owners, condemnation may be necessary. This is a big reason why buyouts take so long. HCFCD cannot demolish a building until they own all units within it.
Some Investors Never Learn
So here we are…1744 days since Harvey made the buildings structurally unsound.
Multi-family housing represents a poor choice for homes in such high risk neighborhoods. But before these units are even demolished, Chinese investors seek to build more, even closer to the river, about a mile downstream. Residents who bought condos in this area before Harvey tell me that they have spotted developers pitching this idyllic location to busloads of Chinese tourists in the area below.
I’m guessing Forest Cove is not on the tour.
Condos under construction in Kings Harbor last year. San Jacinto West Fork is just feet away.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 8, 2022
1744 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/20220224-DJI_0339-copy.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2022-06-08 20:09:272022-06-08 20:09:30Forest Cove Townhome Complex Ready for Demolition
Despite multiple reprimands from the TCEQ and a lawsuit by the Texas Attorney General, the Triple PG mine apparently continues to discharge process wastewater onto neighboring properties. Photos taken on 5/4/22 show those neighboring properties under water despite unusually dry weather and record heat recently. Those same properties were not flooded just days after Tropical Storm Imelda, which dumped more than 25 inches of rain on the area.
Let’s first look at the location of the neighboring properties. Triple PG owns most of the property west of the mine with one notable exception – a strip of 20 properties isolated near the mine’s stockpile. See the map from the Montgomery County Appraisal District below.
Properties in question are inside the red oval.MCAD shows that Guniganti sold the Royal Pines land to TC LB ROYAL PINES LP on 12/9/21.
Dr. Prabhakar R. Guniganti, who owns the mine, didn’t seem to get the message. And pictures taken two days ago suggest he still doesn’t – despite the threat of a million dollar fine.
Compare Before/After Aerial Images
The image below, taken before discharges into this area started, shows the neighboring properties in question. They are the strip of trees between the foreground and background. Note how the land is not flooded, despite the fact that I took this picture just days after Tropical Storm Imelda, which dumped more than 25 inches of rain on this area. Also note the dense forest canopy.
Looking south toward stockpile in background. Properties in the forested strip do not belong to Guniganti. I took this picture on 9/27/2019, ten days after Imelda. Reverse shot looking N from over stockpile. Taken in March 2020. Other shots taken in this series show water on neighbors’ property higher than inside the mine.
Now, fast forward two years. Aerial pictures below taken on 5/4/22 show the same property – under water – despite only 4 inches of rain in the last month!
The new images also show most of the once-lush vegetation has died. All trees on the neighboring property adjacent to the mine are dead with the exception of one small copse on higher ground. And the water is blackish.
Dead trees on property adjoining Triple PG mineimmediately north of the mine’s stockpilein foreground. 5/4/22.Looking NE.The dead trees on neighbor’s property adjoin the mine’s wastewater pit. 5/4/22.
Hmmmm. Let’s see. Not flooded days after 25 inches of rain during Imelda. Flooded after 4 inches in the last month. Once healthy trees now dead. How curious! I wonder how that works. Judging from the healthy trees in the background, I’m guessing the mine’s wastewater may have had something to do with their demise.
Prabhakar R. Guniganti, as Director of Triple P.G. Sand Development, L.L.C.
Prabhakar R. Guniganti, as sole manager of Guniganti Family Property Holdings, L.L.C.
Guniganti Children’s 1999 Trust.
The AG contends that regardless of which legal entity owns the mine, they all lead back to the same man and they all had an obligation to ensure that process wastewater was not discharged into waters of the State.
During the next big rain, at least some of this will flush down White Oak Creek, which joins Caney Creek and the East Fork San Jacinto. Then, it will enter Lake Houston a little more than 2 miles downstream.
Close up cropped from image above.This used to be high, dry and covered with green. Compare with first image at top of post.
Lake Houston supplies drinking water for two million people. I’m not sure what’s in this water. But if it kills trees, it can’t be healthy for humans. It also can’t be healthy for neighboring property values.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/7/2021
1743 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/DJI_0641.jpg?fit=2048%2C1364&ssl=113642048adminadmin2022-06-06 15:59:002022-06-06 16:03:29Triple PG Wastewater Apparently Killing Trees on Neighboring Property
Different Factors Affect Hurricane Strength, Rainfall
The factors that create hurricane strength may not be the same factors that create intense tropical rainfall. According to NOAA, warm sea surface temperatures can increase storm intensity. Meanwhile, the absence of steering currents and wind sheer can cause even weak storms to stall over an area and dump huge amounts of rainfall.
Two things happened this week to bring these factors into focus.
First, sea surface temperatures in June have already reached those not usually observed until late July or August in Galveston.
Second, this week marks the anniversary of Tropical Storm Allison, which set rainfall records for its era and caused all the flood maps to be redrawn (until Harvey). That prompted more research into meteorological factors that affect hurricanes, their formation, and their destructiveness.
Record Heat Tied to Higher than Usual Sea Surface Temperatures
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, released a report this morning that said, recently all along the Texas coast, the nighttime lows have reached near record highs. Galveston, for instance, has failed to fall below 83 degrees for the last 72 hours and the low yesterday was only 84 degrees which is 1 degree shy of the all-time high “record low” of 85 from last summer.
These extremely high “low temps,” says Lindner, are more typical of August than June and directly tied to the nearshore water temperature which is already 83-86 degrees along the Texas coast.
That raised two questions for me:
Sea Surface Temperatures Much Higher than Normal
I first researched sea surface temperature anomalies. You can see from the map below that the entire tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico show higher-than-normal temperatures. How much higher?
Most of the upper Gulf Coast is 1-2 degrees Celsius above normal. That translates to about 2-4 degrees Fahrenheit.
Eighty-six degrees Fahrenheit is the normal average for August in Galveston. And we’re already experiencing that in June!
Relationship Between Sea Surface Temps and Hurricanes
So how will that affect hurricanes? The short answer: it will likely make them more intense, according to NOAA. Here’s how.
In order for a hurricane to form, two things must be present: a weather disturbance, such as a thunderstorm, that pulls in warm surface air from all directions and water at the ocean’s surface that is at least 80° Fahrenheit (27° Celsius).
Because warm air and warm seawater spawn these storms, they form over tropical oceans where seawater is hot enough to give the storms strength and the rotation of the Earth makes them spin.
Converging winds then collide and turn upwards, where water vapor starts to condense. That releases heat that warms the surrounding air, causing it to rise as well. That causes even more warm, moist air to spiral in to replace it.
As long as the base of this weather system remains over warm water and its top is not sheared apart by high-altitude winds, it will strengthen and grow. More and more heat and water will pump into the air. The pressure at its core will drop further and further, sucking in wind at ever-increasing speeds.
Eventually, hurricanes turn toward mid-latitudes, i.e., Texas. When they move over cold water or land, they lose touch with the hot water that powers them. The hurricane then weakens and breaks apart.
Other Factors Correlate with Higher Rainfall
Energy and intensity, however, do not correlate directly with rainfall. Other factors play larger roles in creating monster rainfall rates.
A slow moving storm that meanders or stalls can dump more rain than fast moving storms that blow through areas quickly. Tropical Storm Allison makes an excellent example.
This week is the anniversary of Tropical Storm Allison (June 5-10, 2001). NOAA has a special web page that tells the story of Allison and its destructive rains. Before Harvey, Allison set records for much, but not all, of the Houston Region. Greens Bayou at Mount Houston Parkway, for instance, received 38.78 inches of rain.
The absence of strong steering currents allowed Allison to stall and dump huge rainfall amounts on Houston.
The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center found six factors that impact the rainfall potential of landfalling tropical cyclones:
Between June 5th and the 9th, the two major factors leading to heavy rainfall over Southeast Texas turned out to be Allison’s slow movement and the time of day. These were aided by an abundance of available Gulf moisture.
Time of day deserves more explanation. On Day 4 of Allison, the sun cleared over much of Houston. That increased daytime heating. And the heat caused feeder bands to intensify over areas that previously flooded. No one died during the first three days of the storm. But 22 died during the last two as rainfall from those bands reformed over areas already badly flooded.
Give Your Kids a Science Assignment for the Summer
Weather is one of nature’s biggest puzzles. I find it endlessly fascinating. If your kids are bored already by the summer’s heat, give them a science assignment. Have them research NOAA’s website to learn more about hurricanes and the heat. Hint: ask them how that bright red area in the northern Pacific (in the SST anomalies map). Then ask them how that’s related to drought, trade winds, wind-sheer, and predictions for an above-average hurricane season.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/9/22 based on information from NOAA.
1745 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Forest Cove Townhome Complex Ready for Demolition
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has completed condemnation proceedings on the last unit in another townhome complex on Marina Drive in Forest Cove. They will schedule the units for demolition as early as next week.
Hurricane Harvey destroyed the units so completely that FEMA made them the centerpiece of a video after Harvey. Since then, they have become magnets for looters, arsonists, drug dealers and illegal dumping.
Amy Stone, a spokesperson for HCFCD said, “There were nearly 90 units in that community! All required appraisals, offers, negotiations, closings and demolitions.”
Reasons for Slow Pace of Buyouts
Demolition of the first units began on Timberline Court in March 2019. But HCFCD has had to navigate rough waters since then.
I previously reported that some owners abandoned their properties and that HCFCD could not locate them. Those units had to go through condemnation proceedings before demolition could begin.
Stone reports that two complexes remain. HCFCD closed on the last unit in one last month and completed the site inspection last Thursday. “We are waiting for the asbestos survey report to come back. We should have a demolition date by next week,” said Stone.
Asked about the other complex, Stone reported, “1020 Marina Dr. will be demolished once the last unit is purchased. This unit is currently in condemnation.”
HCFCD and FEMA like buyouts to be voluntary wherever possible. But in the case of missing owners, condemnation may be necessary. This is a big reason why buyouts take so long. HCFCD cannot demolish a building until they own all units within it.
Some Investors Never Learn
So here we are…1744 days since Harvey made the buildings structurally unsound.
Multi-family housing represents a poor choice for homes in such high risk neighborhoods. But before these units are even demolished, Chinese investors seek to build more, even closer to the river, about a mile downstream. Residents who bought condos in this area before Harvey tell me that they have spotted developers pitching this idyllic location to busloads of Chinese tourists in the area below.
I’m guessing Forest Cove is not on the tour.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 8, 2022
1744 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Triple PG Wastewater Apparently Killing Trees on Neighboring Property
Despite multiple reprimands from the TCEQ and a lawsuit by the Texas Attorney General, the Triple PG mine apparently continues to discharge process wastewater onto neighboring properties. Photos taken on 5/4/22 show those neighboring properties under water despite unusually dry weather and record heat recently. Those same properties were not flooded just days after Tropical Storm Imelda, which dumped more than 25 inches of rain on the area.
However, Triple PG denies allegations of unauthorized discharges.
Location of Isolated Neighboring Properties
Let’s first look at the location of the neighboring properties. Triple PG owns most of the property west of the mine with one notable exception – a strip of 20 properties isolated near the mine’s stockpile. See the map from the Montgomery County Appraisal District below.
History of Unauthorized Discharges
Back in March 2020, I observed that the Triple PG sand mine in Porter was discharging process wastewater onto adjoining property that the mine did not own. The Texas Attorney General had already sued Triple PG on behalf of the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) for previous unauthorized discharges.
I filed a complaint with the TCEQ about the March 2020 discharge. TCEQ immediately sent an investigator to the mine. The investigator documented wastewater on the adjoining property. It was the fourth such alleged incident at the Triple PG mine in 10 months. Outcome? The TCEQ issued yet another “Notice of Enforcement” in April 2020 for the “unauthorized discharge of wastewater.”
But two months later, in May 2020, the wastewater on the adjoining property was higher than in the mine’s settling pond.
Dr. Prabhakar R. Guniganti, who owns the mine, didn’t seem to get the message. And pictures taken two days ago suggest he still doesn’t – despite the threat of a million dollar fine.
Compare Before/After Aerial Images
The image below, taken before discharges into this area started, shows the neighboring properties in question. They are the strip of trees between the foreground and background. Note how the land is not flooded, despite the fact that I took this picture just days after Tropical Storm Imelda, which dumped more than 25 inches of rain on this area. Also note the dense forest canopy.
Now, fast forward two years. Aerial pictures below taken on 5/4/22 show the same property – under water – despite only 4 inches of rain in the last month!
The new images also show most of the once-lush vegetation has died. All trees on the neighboring property adjacent to the mine are dead with the exception of one small copse on higher ground. And the water is blackish.
Hmmmm. Let’s see. Not flooded days after 25 inches of rain during Imelda. Flooded after 4 inches in the last month. Once healthy trees now dead. How curious! I wonder how that works. Judging from the healthy trees in the background, I’m guessing the mine’s wastewater may have had something to do with their demise.
Status of Legal Case
According to the TCEQ, the Attorney General’s case against the mine is finally moving forward after two years. Legal maneuvering delayed it when Guniganti tried to transfer ownership of the mine in an apparent attempt to shield assets from prosecutors. As a result, the Attorney General wound up bringing Prabhakar R. Guniganti (individually) into the lawsuit, as well as:
The AG contends that regardless of which legal entity owns the mine, they all lead back to the same man and they all had an obligation to ensure that process wastewater was not discharged into waters of the State.
The AG believes all entities above are liable for unauthorized discharges pursuant to Texas Water Code 26.121(c), which makes it unlawful to “cause, suffer, allow, or permit the discharge of any waste” in violation of the Texas Water Code.
…Into the Drinking Water for 2 Million People
During the next big rain, at least some of this will flush down White Oak Creek, which joins Caney Creek and the East Fork San Jacinto. Then, it will enter Lake Houston a little more than 2 miles downstream.
Lake Houston supplies drinking water for two million people. I’m not sure what’s in this water. But if it kills trees, it can’t be healthy for humans. It also can’t be healthy for neighboring property values.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/7/2021
1743 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.