The Kings Forest Community Association (KFCA) board has expressed concerns about the outfall location for the proposed Cypress Creek flood tunnel. Phase 2 of the tunnel study showed two potential outfalls in the Humble/Kingwood Area: one immediately upstream from the I-69 bridge, the other farther downstream near River Grove Park.
KFCA does not oppose the tunnel. But it does want assurances from the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) that it will have NO adverse impact on:
The community’s flood risk
Potential damage to homes and businesses
Oilfield infrastructure
Water quality in Lake Houston
Bridges
Further, KFCA requested that “no adverse impact” be demonstrated with the latest flood data compiled after Harvey and that the data be based on mitigation improvements alreadyin place, not plannedefforts that could fall through for funding or political reasons.
KFCA concerns have to do with flood peaks shifted by both a tunnel and upstream development that could cause altered peaks to coincide and heighten flooding even more.
Feet Above Flood Stage Highest at US59 And West Fork
HCFCD has a long-standing policy of not supporting flood-mitigation projects for one area that would make flooding worse in another. But the KFCA board fears that the location of the outfall could make flooding worse in the Humble/Kingwood Area.
Said the board, “The tunnel would add stormwater to Lake Houston at a location that experienced the highest flooding in northern Harris County and had some of the heaviest damage as a result.”
Chart showing feet above flood stage at 33 gages for misc. locations in Harris County during Harvey.
Potential Damage to Homes/Businesses
The heat map below shows cumulative flood damage since 1978. The Humble, Kingwood, Huffman area appears to have sustained even more damaged than Cypress Creek to the west.
Proximity to Humble Salt Dome/Oilfield Infrastructure
Additionally, the outfall location(s) contain hundreds of active and abandoned oil-and-gas wells around and over the Humble salt dome. The map below, from the Railroad Commission of Texas, shows their locations and density. The proposed Cypress Creek Tunnel would have to snake its way through these if it goes beyond US59.
Active (green) and abandoned (white) wells over and around the Humble Salt Dome. Source: Railroad Commission of Texas.
The photo below shows pollution in Lake Houston from flood-damaged oil field assets.
Oil on water by abandoned Noxxe lease in Forest Cove
It took the Railroad Commission 4.5 years to clean up this mess after the operator declared bankruptcy. Yet the proposed Cypress Creek tunnel would outfall into the headwaters of Lake Houston, the source of drinking water for two million people.
Bridges
The Union Pacific Railroad Bridge had to be replaced after Harvey, affecting rail traffic for years. Reconstruction took until April 2020.
The Request: Demonstrate No Adverse Impact Using Latest Data Before Proceeding
The Kings Forest letter said, “While we are sensitive to the flooding issues along Cypress Creek, we believe that letting a Cypress Creek flood tunnel outfall at this location is not wise. It could lead to further damage and potential environmental/health dangers.”
The letter ended with a plea for HCFCD to demonstrate “no adverse impact” before proceeding with Phase 3 of the tunnel study and again at some future point if the Phase 3 study recommends construction of the flood tunnel.
“We also request that your “no adverse impact” evaluation reflect actual, current conditions,” said the directors. “Please DON’T base the evaluation on planned mitigation measures, which might not happen for political reasons.”
“Also, please DON’T base the evaluation on outdated conveyance data for the San Jacinto West Fork,” they continued. “Montgomery County is the second-fastest growing county in the region. It allows new subdivisions to use hydrologic timing surveys to avoid building floodwater detention basins. In 2019, Harris County Engineering and Flood Control proposed eliminating that practice, but MoCo Commissioners voted no. As a result, the Humble/Kingwood area faces constantly increasing flood risk from thousands of upstream acres being developed without sufficient mitigation.”
Those new developments shift flood peaks in a way that could potentially coincide with an altered peak from Cypress Creek.
The language of some engineering reports is more impenetrable than the armor of a battleship. My weird nephew Izzy floods badly. He was trying to slog through the Region 6 San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group DRAFT report and called for help today.
Marvel Comics It Ain’t
“Uncle Bob,” he complained, “This is @#$%&ing 295 pages long!”
“Yeah, but that was just to impress one of the dancers down at the Crystal Pistol.”
“Now the truth comes out!” I chuckled.
“Uncle Bob, you’re brain-shamin’ me.”
“I’m sorry, Izzy. Is there a problem beside the length?”
“Yeah, I can’t figure out what they’re trying to say.”
“That’s all?” I asked.
Izzy spat back, “They wanna spend $29 billion on the recommendations in here. You’d think they could afford $15 dollars an hour to hire a decent writer.”
The boy did have a point. But I explained, “Making it easy to understand wouldn’t make people think they were getting recommendations worth $29 billion.”
“They’re translating this thing into a dozen languages. You’d think English could be one of ’em.”
Nephew Izzy
“Is it too technical? Formulas and stuff?” I asked.
“No. It’s just confusing.” Izzy sometimes has trouble with the concept of “up.” So I said…
Izzy Cites Examples: Writer Paid by the Word?
“Give me an example, Izzy.”
He threw 295 pages down on my kitchen table. The dog-eared report was covered with notes. This was an amazing step up from Spiderman for Izzy. I was encouraged.
He turned to one of the pages. “Like this,” he said. “The most common types of projects in the region are channel improvement projects, which is inclusive of channel repair and channel conveyance improvement projects.”
My jaw dropped. Aside from the circular logic and redundancy, the subject and verb didn’t agree. “Projects is?” I asked. “Improvement projects include improvement projects? That writer must have been getting paid by the word,” I said. I was beginning to see Izzy’s point. “Show me another one, Iz.”
“Here!” he said, brightening now that he had an ally. Then he took a deep breath and said, “Due to significant increases in anticipated rainfall depth seen across the entire region due to the NOAA Atlas 14 as shown in Figure 2-4, change in rainfall depth was not included as a decision point for Flood Map Gap designations, as the change in rainfall amounts would qualify the whole region as a mapping gap since the effective FEMA mapping does not yet incorporate Atlas 14 rainfall.”
“I’m surprised you could even get that out in one breath,” I said. Izzy was turning blue and gasping. While he caught his breath, I counted up the words – 67. “There’s just no substitute for 67-word sentences when you’re trying to bluff your way through something you don’t know,” I said.
Impossible-to-Diagram Sentences
Izzy looked relieved. “So, I’m not so dumb after all, Uncle Bob?”
“I don’t think even my 4th grade English teacher, Mrs. Battaligni, could diagram that sentence, Izzy.”
“What do you think it means, Uncle Bob?”
“It means taxpayers should ask for their money back, Izzy.”
“Ya’ think? Cuz’ frankly I could use a tax refund right about now.”
“Don’t hold your breath, Izzy. It doesn’t work that way.”
“Well, how will I ever know if this will fix my flooding, Uncle Bob?”
Dream No Small Dreams
“It won’t, Izzy. The state has about a $1 billion budget that has to be split 15 ways. And these guys are recommending $29 billion in projects just for the San Jacinto watershed.”
“I know what that’s like.”
“How so?”
“I was sweeping up down at the Crystal Pistol last night and I told the manager I sure could use a new broom.”
“And?”
“He said it wasn’t in the budget. Maybe next year.”
“Maybe you should go to one of the Flood Planning Group’s open houses and ask them to explain.”
“Happy hour. My boss’ll never let me off. Too many beer-nut dishes to refill.”
Izzy Considers a Career Change
“Maybe you could get a job helping them write the final version of the report.”
“Ya’ think?” Izzy brightened and moved to the edge of his seat.
“They recommend spending another $200 million on more reports,” I said.
“Man, I could use some of that bank!” Then Izzy’s enthusiasm quickly vanished. Uncharacteristically, he confessed, “But I barely scraped by high-school English.”
“That makes you perfect,” I said. “You know how to write a 7-word sentence.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/22
1850 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Cover-Region-6-Draft-Report.jpg?fit=1200%2C840&ssl=18401200adminadmin2022-09-22 20:41:302022-09-22 23:35:38Language In Engineering Report Has Nephew Izzy Baffled
A hurricane is likely in the Caribbean by early next week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says a tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity near the southern Windward Islands. The system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The disturbance should move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week. NHC puts chances of formation through five days at 90%. (See the elongated red oval off the coast of South America below.)
NHC calls this Invest 98L. Invest stands for Area of Investigation.
Satellite Image Shows Interaction between 98L and Fiona
The Windward Islands are already seeing heavy rainfall and gusty winds from 98L. It will bring heavy rainfall to northern Venezuela and Colombia within the next day or two. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will fly into the system this evening to collect more information.
The satellite image below shows 98L and Fiona, the major hurricane that ravaged Puerto Rico earlier this week.
As of 2:50 PM Houston Time, satellite image shows Fiona moving north toward Bermuda
In the image above, you can actually see the outflow from Fiona impacting 98L. It is preventing thunderstorms from organizing in 98L at the moment, but as Fiona moves north (see below), conditions will become more favorable for 98L.
NHC predicts Fiona will clip Bermuda and then head due north. Fiona should hit Canada with topical storm force winds this weekend. In the meantime, pray for people in Bermuda. Cat 4 storms can create catastrophic damage and cause power outages that last for weeks or months.
Probabilities for continued hurricane force winds along Fiona’s projected path during next 5 days.
Invest 98L Expected to Track into Caribbean and Gulf
As of this morning, all major models except one showed 98L moving into the Gulf of Mexico.
Source: TropicalTidbits.com via Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
Along its route through the Caribbean, 98L will find plenty of warm water. The chart below shows deviation from normal sea surface temperatures for this time of year. This will help fuel the storm.
As of 9/21/22
Most models forecast development of 98L this weekend as the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. As the 98L reaches the central Caribbean, shear will begin to decrease. Additionally, oceanic heat content in the Caribbean is some of the highest in the entire Atlantic basin. This deep warm water will help fuel intensification.
NOAA’s HWRF hurricane model shows intensification from a low end tropical storm to major hurricane in a 24-36 hour period. Western Caribbean systems this time of year are notorious for significant deepening in a short amount of time.
Florida More Likely Target Than Texas at this Time
However, Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says that, based on historical norms, hurricanes originating in the Caribbean this time of year tend to move toward Florida … less so toward Texas. The diagram below bears that out. It shows the points of origin and tracks for hurricanes developing in this 10 day period over 165 years.
“Hurricane impacts to the Texas coast this time of year tend to be from the Bay of Campeche and not from the western Caribbean Sea.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Historical norms aside, Lindner says 98L’s longer term track will depend on how it eventually interacts with weather over the eastern U.S. At this time, Lindner believes a frontal boundary will approach the Houston area early next week and help guide 98L east of Texas.
Still, keep your eyes on the Gulf and stay prepared in case something changes.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/21/22 at 5PM
1849 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Screen-Shot-2022-09-21-at-4.34.51-PM.png?fit=1774%2C1118&ssl=111181774adminadmin2022-09-21 17:10:352022-09-21 17:16:42Hurricane Likely in Caribbean Within 5 Days
Concerns Over Proposed Cypress Creek Flood Tunnel Outfall Location
The Kings Forest Community Association (KFCA) board has expressed concerns about the outfall location for the proposed Cypress Creek flood tunnel. Phase 2 of the tunnel study showed two potential outfalls in the Humble/Kingwood Area: one immediately upstream from the I-69 bridge, the other farther downstream near River Grove Park.
KFCA does not oppose the tunnel. But it does want assurances from the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) that it will have NO adverse impact on:
Further, KFCA requested that “no adverse impact” be demonstrated with the latest flood data compiled after Harvey and that the data be based on mitigation improvements already in place, not planned efforts that could fall through for funding or political reasons.
KFCA concerns have to do with flood peaks shifted by both a tunnel and upstream development that could cause altered peaks to coincide and heighten flooding even more.
Feet Above Flood Stage Highest at US59 And West Fork
HCFCD has a long-standing policy of not supporting flood-mitigation projects for one area that would make flooding worse in another. But the KFCA board fears that the location of the outfall could make flooding worse in the Humble/Kingwood Area.
Said the board, “The tunnel would add stormwater to Lake Houston at a location that experienced the highest flooding in northern Harris County and had some of the heaviest damage as a result.”
Potential Damage to Homes/Businesses
The heat map below shows cumulative flood damage since 1978. The Humble, Kingwood, Huffman area appears to have sustained even more damaged than Cypress Creek to the west.
Proximity to Humble Salt Dome/Oilfield Infrastructure
Additionally, the outfall location(s) contain hundreds of active and abandoned oil-and-gas wells around and over the Humble salt dome. The map below, from the Railroad Commission of Texas, shows their locations and density. The proposed Cypress Creek Tunnel would have to snake its way through these if it goes beyond US59.
The 240,000 Cubic Feet Per Second shooting through this area during Harvey destroyed wells, tanks and pipes, exposing the public to pollution. The photos below illustrate damage to the Noxxe lease in Forest Cove near the West Fork.
Water Quality
The photo below shows pollution in Lake Houston from flood-damaged oil field assets.
It took the Railroad Commission 4.5 years to clean up this mess after the operator declared bankruptcy. Yet the proposed Cypress Creek tunnel would outfall into the headwaters of Lake Houston, the source of drinking water for two million people.
Bridges
The Union Pacific Railroad Bridge had to be replaced after Harvey, affecting rail traffic for years. Reconstruction took until April 2020.
The I-69 Southbound Bridge was out of commission for 11 months due to scouring of the bridge supports. This caused detours and massive delays for tens of thousands. Repairs cost TxDoT $20 million.
The West Lake Houston Parkway bridge also required extensive repairs after Harvey.
The Request: Demonstrate No Adverse Impact Using Latest Data Before Proceeding
The Kings Forest letter said, “While we are sensitive to the flooding issues along Cypress Creek, we believe that letting a Cypress Creek flood tunnel outfall at this location is not wise. It could lead to further damage and potential environmental/health dangers.”
The letter ended with a plea for HCFCD to demonstrate “no adverse impact” before proceeding with Phase 3 of the tunnel study and again at some future point if the Phase 3 study recommends construction of the flood tunnel.
“We also request that your “no adverse impact” evaluation reflect actual, current conditions,” said the directors. “Please DON’T base the evaluation on planned mitigation measures, which might not happen for political reasons.”
“Also, please DON’T base the evaluation on outdated conveyance data for the San Jacinto West Fork,” they continued. “Montgomery County is the second-fastest growing county in the region. It allows new subdivisions to use hydrologic timing surveys to avoid building floodwater detention basins. In 2019, Harris County Engineering and Flood Control proposed eliminating that practice, but MoCo Commissioners voted no. As a result, the Humble/Kingwood area faces constantly increasing flood risk from thousands of upstream acres being developed without sufficient mitigation.”
Those new developments shift flood peaks in a way that could potentially coincide with an altered peak from Cypress Creek.
See the full letter here.
To review HCFCD’s flood tunnel studies and leave a public comment, click here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/23/22
1851 Days since Hurricane Harvey
In the interest of transparency, I should disclose that I am a member of the KFCA board.
Language In Engineering Report Has Nephew Izzy Baffled
The language of some engineering reports is more impenetrable than the armor of a battleship. My weird nephew Izzy floods badly. He was trying to slog through the Region 6 San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group DRAFT report and called for help today.
Marvel Comics It Ain’t
“Uncle Bob,” he complained, “This is @#$%&ing 295 pages long!”
“Put on your big-boy pants, Izzy,” I said. “Suck it up. I know it’s longer than a Spiderman comic, but you did apply for jobs as the Deputy County Administrator and Executive Director of the Flood Control District.”
“Yeah, but that was just to impress one of the dancers down at the Crystal Pistol.”
“Now the truth comes out!” I chuckled.
“Uncle Bob, you’re brain-shamin’ me.”
“I’m sorry, Izzy. Is there a problem beside the length?”
“Yeah, I can’t figure out what they’re trying to say.”
“That’s all?” I asked.
Izzy spat back, “They wanna spend $29 billion on the recommendations in here. You’d think they could afford $15 dollars an hour to hire a decent writer.”
The boy did have a point. But I explained, “Making it easy to understand wouldn’t make people think they were getting recommendations worth $29 billion.”
“Is it too technical? Formulas and stuff?” I asked.
“No. It’s just confusing.” Izzy sometimes has trouble with the concept of “up.” So I said…
Izzy Cites Examples: Writer Paid by the Word?
“Give me an example, Izzy.”
He threw 295 pages down on my kitchen table. The dog-eared report was covered with notes. This was an amazing step up from Spiderman for Izzy. I was encouraged.
He turned to one of the pages. “Like this,” he said. “The most common types of projects in the region are channel improvement projects, which is inclusive of channel repair and channel conveyance improvement projects.”
My jaw dropped. Aside from the circular logic and redundancy, the subject and verb didn’t agree. “Projects is?” I asked. “Improvement projects include improvement projects? That writer must have been getting paid by the word,” I said. I was beginning to see Izzy’s point. “Show me another one, Iz.”
“Here!” he said, brightening now that he had an ally. Then he took a deep breath and said, “Due to significant increases in anticipated rainfall depth seen across the entire region due to the NOAA Atlas 14 as shown in Figure 2-4, change in rainfall depth was not included as a decision point for Flood Map Gap designations, as the change in rainfall amounts would qualify the whole region as a mapping gap since the effective FEMA mapping does not yet incorporate Atlas 14 rainfall.”
“I’m surprised you could even get that out in one breath,” I said. Izzy was turning blue and gasping. While he caught his breath, I counted up the words – 67. “There’s just no substitute for 67-word sentences when you’re trying to bluff your way through something you don’t know,” I said.
Impossible-to-Diagram Sentences
Izzy looked relieved. “So, I’m not so dumb after all, Uncle Bob?”
“I don’t think even my 4th grade English teacher, Mrs. Battaligni, could diagram that sentence, Izzy.”
“What do you think it means, Uncle Bob?”
“It means taxpayers should ask for their money back, Izzy.”
“Ya’ think? Cuz’ frankly I could use a tax refund right about now.”
“Don’t hold your breath, Izzy. It doesn’t work that way.”
“Well, how will I ever know if this will fix my flooding, Uncle Bob?”
Dream No Small Dreams
“It won’t, Izzy. The state has about a $1 billion budget that has to be split 15 ways. And these guys are recommending $29 billion in projects just for the San Jacinto watershed.”
“I know what that’s like.”
“How so?”
“I was sweeping up down at the Crystal Pistol last night and I told the manager I sure could use a new broom.”
“And?”
“He said it wasn’t in the budget. Maybe next year.”
“Maybe you should go to one of the Flood Planning Group’s open houses and ask them to explain.”
“When are they?”
“5:30 to 7:30 … two days next week.”
“That’ll never work.”
“Why?”
“Happy hour. My boss’ll never let me off. Too many beer-nut dishes to refill.”
Izzy Considers a Career Change
“Maybe you could get a job helping them write the final version of the report.”
“Ya’ think?” Izzy brightened and moved to the edge of his seat.
“They recommend spending another $200 million on more reports,” I said.
“Man, I could use some of that bank!” Then Izzy’s enthusiasm quickly vanished. Uncharacteristically, he confessed, “But I barely scraped by high-school English.”
“That makes you perfect,” I said. “You know how to write a 7-word sentence.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/22
1850 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Hurricane Likely in Caribbean Within 5 Days
A hurricane is likely in the Caribbean by early next week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says a tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity near the southern Windward Islands. The system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The disturbance should move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week. NHC puts chances of formation through five days at 90%. (See the elongated red oval off the coast of South America below.)
NHC calls this Invest 98L. Invest stands for Area of Investigation.
Satellite Image Shows Interaction between 98L and Fiona
The Windward Islands are already seeing heavy rainfall and gusty winds from 98L. It will bring heavy rainfall to northern Venezuela and Colombia within the next day or two. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will fly into the system this evening to collect more information.
The satellite image below shows 98L and Fiona, the major hurricane that ravaged Puerto Rico earlier this week.
In the image above, you can actually see the outflow from Fiona impacting 98L. It is preventing thunderstorms from organizing in 98L at the moment, but as Fiona moves north (see below), conditions will become more favorable for 98L.
Fiona is Cat 4, Heading North
Fiona is still packing winds of 130 mph. That puts it just inside Category 4 as of Wednesday 9/21/22 at 5PM.
NHC predicts Fiona will clip Bermuda and then head due north. Fiona should hit Canada with topical storm force winds this weekend. In the meantime, pray for people in Bermuda. Cat 4 storms can create catastrophic damage and cause power outages that last for weeks or months.
Invest 98L Expected to Track into Caribbean and Gulf
As of this morning, all major models except one showed 98L moving into the Gulf of Mexico.
Along its route through the Caribbean, 98L will find plenty of warm water. The chart below shows deviation from normal sea surface temperatures for this time of year. This will help fuel the storm.
Most models forecast development of 98L this weekend as the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. As the 98L reaches the central Caribbean, shear will begin to decrease. Additionally, oceanic heat content in the Caribbean is some of the highest in the entire Atlantic basin. This deep warm water will help fuel intensification.
NOAA’s HWRF hurricane model shows intensification from a low end tropical storm to major hurricane in a 24-36 hour period. Western Caribbean systems this time of year are notorious for significant deepening in a short amount of time.
Florida More Likely Target Than Texas at this Time
However, Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says that, based on historical norms, hurricanes originating in the Caribbean this time of year tend to move toward Florida … less so toward Texas. The diagram below bears that out. It shows the points of origin and tracks for hurricanes developing in this 10 day period over 165 years.
Historical norms aside, Lindner says 98L’s longer term track will depend on how it eventually interacts with weather over the eastern U.S. At this time, Lindner believes a frontal boundary will approach the Houston area early next week and help guide 98L east of Texas.
Still, keep your eyes on the Gulf and stay prepared in case something changes.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/21/22 at 5PM
1849 Days since Hurricane Harvey