The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has scheduled a community meeting to reveal the results of an engineering study of the Taylor Gully watershed and Woodridge Village, the aborted development that flooded Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest twice in 2019. The virtual meeting will be on:
December 14, 2022
6:30 PM – 7:30 PM
Two Related Efforts
Because Woodridge Village sits at the headwaters of Taylor Gully, the volume of stormwater detention upstream and the amount of conveyance needed downstream are related. More of one could mean less of the other. HCFCD has been working to find the optimum solution, which should be discussed at the meeting.
Areas of Concern Identified by Community Members
Community members previously expressed concerns, including:
Straightening a Taylor Gully oxbow adjacent to Woodstream Forest where numerous homes flooded.
Replacing the old culvert-style bridge on Rustic Elms with an open-span bridge.
The Rustic Elms Bridge on Taylor Gully has a twin-culvert design with less conveyance than more open bridges like the one at West Lake Houston Parkway farther downstream in this image. Nearly every home behind this bridge on adjacent streets flooded in 2019.
Hundreds of homes adjacent to Woodridge Village and Taylor Gully flooded twice in 2019 after a developer clearcut approximately 270 acres before building required stormwater detention basins.
The developer then sold the troubled project to HCFCD in March 2021 after building 271 acre feet of stormwater detention capacity – an amount sufficient to meet Montgomery County’s pre-Atlas-14 standards, which were in effect at the time of permitting.
Taylor Gully One of Top Two Priorities in Kingwood Area
The Kingwood-Area Drainage Analysis from October 2020 recommended Taylor Gully as one of the top two priorities for Kingwood. However, HCFCD also recommended the Taylor Gully project be re-analyzed to determine how the use of Woodridge Village for detention could modify the recommended plan.
Since February 2022, Sprint Sand & Clay has removed an average of more than 1,700 cubic feet of dirt each week from Woodridge. That’s roughly one acre foot per week. An acre foot equals 1613.33 cubic yards of material.
So, HCFCD has increased detention capacity by almost 42 acre feet since signing the contract with Sprint. That means detention capacity has already increased by about 16 percent, not quite half of what it needs to meet new Atlas-14 requirements.
Stats from HCFCD show cubic feet of dirt removed from Woodridge Village by Sprint Sand & Clay each week since start of E&R contract.
Pictures Showing Woodridge Village Status
Here are some pictures that show the extent of excavation on November 26, 2022.
Looking NE along Harris/Montgomery county line (tree line on right).Close-up shot of active work area.Looking S toward Sherwood Trails Village
Excavation and removal contracts give HCFCD a head start on construction of stormwater detention basins. The final dimensions may not be known yet, but HCFCD can make adjustments as it finalizes construction plans.
We should learn more about those on December 14th. Block out the date for the Taylor Gully, Woodridge Village meeting.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/2/2022
1921 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/20221126-DJI_0406.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2022-12-02 15:56:062022-12-02 20:26:17Taylor Gully-Woodridge Village Meeting Scheduled for Dec. 14
Hurricane season officially ended yesterday, November 30. 2022 turned out to be an average season, not the above-normal season that was predicted. No storms affected Houston. But Category 4 Ian slammed the West Coast of Florida, killing at least 144 people.
Hurricane Ian as seen from NOAA’s GOES-East satellite on Sept. 27, 2022 at 4:26 p.m. (EDT) in the Gulf of Mexico.
Four U.S. Landfalls
The 2022 season saw four hurricane landfalls in the U.S.:
Category 4 Ian with 150 mph maximum sustained winds, tied for the fifth-strongest hurricane ever to landfall in the U.S.
Ian made landfall a second time in Georgetown, SC as a Category 1.
Category 1 Hurricane Nicole made landfall in north Hutchinson Island, Florida.
Hurricane Fiona made landfall near Punta Tocon, Puerto Rico as a Cat 1. It dumped 27 inches on the island still struggling to recover from Hurricane Maria in 2017. Fiona later intensified to a Cat 4 as it headed north.
Unusual Mid-Season Pause
According to the National Hurricane Center, this unique season was defined by a rare mid-season pause. Scientists suspect the causes were increased wind shear and suppressed atmospheric moisture high over the Atlantic Ocean.
After a quiet August, activity ramped up in September with seven named storms, including the two major hurricanes — Fiona and Ian. The season also included a rare late-season storm with Hurricane Nicole making landfall on November 10 along the east coast of Florida.
Forecasting “Firsts”
National Hurricane Center forecasts were aided by the experimental peak storm surge graphic, which allowed forecasters to more accurately communicate the severity of expected storm surge levels.
Another major first included the successful launch of the Altius 600 small uncrewed aircraft system from a Hurricane Hunter aircraft into the core of Ian hours before its landfall. It discovered 216 mph winds at an altitude of 2,150 feet.
Three major take-aways from this thought-provoking article were:
How older people die in disproportionate numbers from hurricanes
The difficulty of evacuating densely populated areas.
Public policy implications of the two points above.
Disproportionate Harm to Older People
Pulver’s article pointed out that, “The median age of Ian’s victims was 72 in Florida, a haven for retirees. More than 61% of the victims whose ages are known were 65 or over. Nearly half had medical conditions that contributed to their deaths.”
The USA Today analysis found that 60 people drowned and that preexisting medical conditions contributed to at least 30 deaths. At least 85 victims were 65 or older.
People Still Dying Despite Better Forecasts
Part of the problem relates to perceptions of risk. Older people are choosing to live in unsafe areas in ever increasing numbers.
The percentage of Florida’s population over 65 in coastal counties is predicted to jump from 16% to 37% by 2100. Over the past 20 years, the percentage of Florida residents aged 65 and older has increased from 17.6% to 21%. This complicates disaster planning and places extra burdens on first responders.
Pulver quotes Amber Silver, a disaster researcher at the University of Albany, as saying, “We have to look at policy failures. When you have vulnerable people living in vulnerable regions, in vulnerable infrastructure being exposed to these storms, you’re going to continue to have these shocking death counts – particularly among the most vulnerable. Until we address this challenge at a systemic, societal level, it’s not going to get better.”
Difficulty of Evacuation Points to Need for Better Floodplain and Building Regulations
Even with perfect forecasts, evacuation decisions remain difficult. Where do you go if you’re at the tip of a low-lying peninsula like Florida, hundreds of miles from higher ground.
Here in Houston, half of the 120 deaths during Rita in 2005 happened during evacuation attempts. Millions fled the Cat 5 storm bearing down on them with 180 mph winds – just weeks after Katrina destroyed New Orleans. Millions of panicked people created gridlock on the freeways.
Such examples create a powerful argument for focusing on better building and floodplain regulations. That battle is won or lost between storms.
We must focus more on creating survivable structures in survivable locations.
But people seem to like affordable homes with water views and living with the risk right up to minute they can’t.
Regardless, Pulver points out that far fewer people die today than, say in the great Galveston hurricane of 1900, which killed an estimated 8000 people. So, we are making some progress.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/1/2022
1920 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/IMAGE-Hurricane-Ian-20222701556_GOES16-ABI-CONUS-GEOCOLOR-5000x3000-1.jpg?fit=1275%2C717&ssl=17171275adminadmin2022-12-01 14:06:482022-12-01 14:26:06Hurricane Season Ends!
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) released its November report on Flood-Bond progress to Commissioners Court yesterday. The report covered through October 2022. I had two major take-aways:
The slowdown in bond spending continues. HCFCD initiated no new construction projects during the month of October.
HCFCD spent more money on buyouts than flood reduction.
The major announcement: the District advertised bids for the construction of a stormwater detention basin in Inwood Forest. The project encompasses property owned by the City of Houston located both east and west of Antoine where Vogel Creek outfalls into White Oak Bayou (the old Inwood Forest Golf Course). It will eventually have a total of 12 interconnected compartments.
Funding of this project comes from the 2018 Bond, FEMA and the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM). HCFCD hopes construction will begin in winter 2022-23. But let’s look at what has happened, instead of what will.
Overview
Since the last update, HCFCD:
Awarded NO construction projects
Awarded 9 non-construction agreements totaling $33 million
Paid $1.2 million for professional services.
Completed 28 home buyouts valued at approximately $5 million
Spent a total of $9.9 million since the last update.
Those last two bullet points mean…
HCFCD spent more on buyouts than flood reduction in the month of October.
HCFCD uses some buyouts for right-of-way (ROW) acquisition to build detention ponds or widen channels. But many buyouts simply avoid repetitive losses. The latest update does not specify which category October buyouts fell into.
Schedule performance indicators (the SPI index) for the month remained at .95 – behind schedule. HCFCD says the bond program is 23.8% completed – an increase of 0.3% from the previous month. That’s at 50 months out of a planned 120 month program or 41.6% of the way into the bond program.
Where the Money Has Gone
Only three projects out of 181 in the Bond changed stages. One went into preliminary engineering and two went from preliminary engineering into right-of-way acquisition. All are in the Cedar Bayou watershed.
The map below shows where $1.14 billion spent to date has gone.
In table form, that looks like this. I provided three months of data so you can see whether the needle is moving in your watershed. Five watersheds received no money in October.
Spending changes by watershed for the last three months.
October’s $9.9 million was only slightly better than September.
Project Phasing Influences Spending Rates
Projects typically go through phases that comprise different percentages of the total budget. In flood control, upfront spending on studies typically comprises only 13% of the total. The big spending – 79% – happens for right-of-way acquisition and construction. Looking back at all phases of all projects since 2000…
Right-of-Way Acquisition and Construction account for almost four out of every five dollars spent by HCFCD.
Here’s how the breakdown looks:
Data compiled from FOIA Request
HCFCD typically spends six times more on Rights-of-Way and Construction, than upfront Feasibility Studies, Preliminary Engineering Reviews and Design.
More than four years into the bond, many projects should be entering the more expensive phases. So you would expect spending to increase. And July totals reflected that. But then a precipitous decline set in.
At the current spend rate, it would take 32 years to complete the bond, not 6.
Why the Slowdown?
HCFCD has not yet explained the slowdown except to say that, during the course of major programs like the Flood Bond, sometimes you hit lulls between major projects. But this slowdown has persisted for three months. No construction projects started last month. And Inwood-Forest stormwater-detention-basin construction likely won’t start for several more months.
Management Turnover – HCFCD recently lost its top three leaders who architected the Flood Bond: Russ Poppe, Matt Zeve, and Alan Black.
Less Experienced Management – Poppe was replaced by an academic who formerly managed the Subsidence District which has a budget one-thousandth the size of the 2018 flood bond.
More Layers of Management – There’s now a whole new department – County Administration – between Flood Control and Commissioners Court.
Bottom line: County Judge Lina Hidalgo needs to provide an explanation for the slowdown. This affects all Harris County residents, not just those in particular watersheds.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/30/2022
1919 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Screenshot-2022-11-30-at-12.42.00-PM.png?fit=1270%2C954&ssl=19541270adminadmin2022-11-30 12:54:322022-11-30 13:06:15HCFCD Spending Slows; More Went to Buyouts than Flood Reduction
Taylor Gully-Woodridge Village Meeting Scheduled for Dec. 14
The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has scheduled a community meeting to reveal the results of an engineering study of the Taylor Gully watershed and Woodridge Village, the aborted development that flooded Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest twice in 2019. The virtual meeting will be on:
Two Related Efforts
Because Woodridge Village sits at the headwaters of Taylor Gully, the volume of stormwater detention upstream and the amount of conveyance needed downstream are related. More of one could mean less of the other. HCFCD has been working to find the optimum solution, which should be discussed at the meeting.
Areas of Concern Identified by Community Members
Community members previously expressed concerns, including:
Hundreds of homes adjacent to Woodridge Village and Taylor Gully flooded twice in 2019 after a developer clearcut approximately 270 acres before building required stormwater detention basins.
The developer then sold the troubled project to HCFCD in March 2021 after building 271 acre feet of stormwater detention capacity – an amount sufficient to meet Montgomery County’s pre-Atlas-14 standards, which were in effect at the time of permitting.
Taylor Gully One of Top Two Priorities in Kingwood Area
The Kingwood-Area Drainage Analysis from October 2020 recommended Taylor Gully as one of the top two priorities for Kingwood. However, HCFCD also recommended the Taylor Gully project be re-analyzed to determine how the use of Woodridge Village for detention could modify the recommended plan.
Here is the scope of work for the engineering company that worked on the Taylor Gully-Woodridge Village project.
42 More Acre Feet Removed to Date from Woodridge Village
In March 2021, Harris County and the City of Houston purchased the Woodridge Village property. They then started an Excavation and Removal Contract with Sprint Sand and Clay in January 2022 that could ultimately double the volume of stormwater detention on Woodridge Village.
Since February 2022, Sprint Sand & Clay has removed an average of more than 1,700 cubic feet of dirt each week from Woodridge. That’s roughly one acre foot per week. An acre foot equals 1613.33 cubic yards of material.
So, HCFCD has increased detention capacity by almost 42 acre feet since signing the contract with Sprint. That means detention capacity has already increased by about 16 percent, not quite half of what it needs to meet new Atlas-14 requirements.
Pictures Showing Woodridge Village Status
Here are some pictures that show the extent of excavation on November 26, 2022.
Excavation and removal contracts give HCFCD a head start on construction of stormwater detention basins. The final dimensions may not be known yet, but HCFCD can make adjustments as it finalizes construction plans.
We should learn more about those on December 14th. Block out the date for the Taylor Gully, Woodridge Village meeting.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/2/2022
1921 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Hurricane Season Ends!
Hurricane season officially ended yesterday, November 30. 2022 turned out to be an average season, not the above-normal season that was predicted. No storms affected Houston. But Category 4 Ian slammed the West Coast of Florida, killing at least 144 people.
Four U.S. Landfalls
The 2022 season saw four hurricane landfalls in the U.S.:
Unusual Mid-Season Pause
According to the National Hurricane Center, this unique season was defined by a rare mid-season pause. Scientists suspect the causes were increased wind shear and suppressed atmospheric moisture high over the Atlantic Ocean.
After a quiet August, activity ramped up in September with seven named storms, including the two major hurricanes — Fiona and Ian. The season also included a rare late-season storm with Hurricane Nicole making landfall on November 10 along the east coast of Florida.
Forecasting “Firsts”
National Hurricane Center forecasts were aided by the experimental peak storm surge graphic, which allowed forecasters to more accurately communicate the severity of expected storm surge levels.
Another major first included the successful launch of the Altius 600 small uncrewed aircraft system from a Hurricane Hunter aircraft into the core of Ian hours before its landfall. It discovered 216 mph winds at an altitude of 2,150 feet.
Why Predictable Storms Still Kill So Many People
USA Today published an exceptionally well-researched and written article by Dinah Boyles Pulver to mark the end of hurricane season. The headline: “Ian was deadliest US storm this year, with at least 144 dead. Why are predictable storms still killing so many people?”
Three major take-aways from this thought-provoking article were:
Disproportionate Harm to Older People
Pulver’s article pointed out that, “The median age of Ian’s victims was 72 in Florida, a haven for retirees. More than 61% of the victims whose ages are known were 65 or over. Nearly half had medical conditions that contributed to their deaths.”
The USA Today analysis found that 60 people drowned and that preexisting medical conditions contributed to at least 30 deaths. At least 85 victims were 65 or older.
People Still Dying Despite Better Forecasts
Part of the problem relates to perceptions of risk. Older people are choosing to live in unsafe areas in ever increasing numbers.
The percentage of Florida’s population over 65 in coastal counties is predicted to jump from 16% to 37% by 2100. Over the past 20 years, the percentage of Florida residents aged 65 and older has increased from 17.6% to 21%. This complicates disaster planning and places extra burdens on first responders.
Pulver quotes Amber Silver, a disaster researcher at the University of Albany, as saying, “We have to look at policy failures. When you have vulnerable people living in vulnerable regions, in vulnerable infrastructure being exposed to these storms, you’re going to continue to have these shocking death counts – particularly among the most vulnerable. Until we address this challenge at a systemic, societal level, it’s not going to get better.”
Difficulty of Evacuation Points to Need for Better Floodplain and Building Regulations
Even with perfect forecasts, evacuation decisions remain difficult. Where do you go if you’re at the tip of a low-lying peninsula like Florida, hundreds of miles from higher ground.
Here in Houston, half of the 120 deaths during Rita in 2005 happened during evacuation attempts. Millions fled the Cat 5 storm bearing down on them with 180 mph winds – just weeks after Katrina destroyed New Orleans. Millions of panicked people created gridlock on the freeways.
Such examples create a powerful argument for focusing on better building and floodplain regulations. That battle is won or lost between storms.
But people seem to like affordable homes with water views and living with the risk right up to minute they can’t.
Regardless, Pulver points out that far fewer people die today than, say in the great Galveston hurricane of 1900, which killed an estimated 8000 people. So, we are making some progress.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/1/2022
1920 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
HCFCD Spending Slows; More Went to Buyouts than Flood Reduction
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) released its November report on Flood-Bond progress to Commissioners Court yesterday. The report covered through October 2022. I had two major take-aways:
The major announcement: the District advertised bids for the construction of a stormwater detention basin in Inwood Forest. The project encompasses property owned by the City of Houston located both east and west of Antoine where Vogel Creek outfalls into White Oak Bayou (the old Inwood Forest Golf Course). It will eventually have a total of 12 interconnected compartments.
Funding of this project comes from the 2018 Bond, FEMA and the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM). HCFCD hopes construction will begin in winter 2022-23. But let’s look at what has happened, instead of what will.
Overview
Since the last update, HCFCD:
Those last two bullet points mean…
HCFCD uses some buyouts for right-of-way (ROW) acquisition to build detention ponds or widen channels. But many buyouts simply avoid repetitive losses. The latest update does not specify which category October buyouts fell into.
Schedule performance indicators (the SPI index) for the month remained at .95 – behind schedule. HCFCD says the bond program is 23.8% completed – an increase of 0.3% from the previous month. That’s at 50 months out of a planned 120 month program or 41.6% of the way into the bond program.
Where the Money Has Gone
Only three projects out of 181 in the Bond changed stages. One went into preliminary engineering and two went from preliminary engineering into right-of-way acquisition. All are in the Cedar Bayou watershed.
The map below shows where $1.14 billion spent to date has gone.
In table form, that looks like this. I provided three months of data so you can see whether the needle is moving in your watershed. Five watersheds received no money in October.
Spending Trend Still Down
Last month I wrote about this downward trend in bond spending at a time when it should be increasing. Notice the trend in recent months:
Project Phasing Influences Spending Rates
Projects typically go through phases that comprise different percentages of the total budget. In flood control, upfront spending on studies typically comprises only 13% of the total. The big spending – 79% – happens for right-of-way acquisition and construction. Looking back at all phases of all projects since 2000…
Here’s how the breakdown looks:
HCFCD typically spends six times more on Rights-of-Way and Construction, than upfront Feasibility Studies, Preliminary Engineering Reviews and Design.
More than four years into the bond, many projects should be entering the more expensive phases. So you would expect spending to increase. And July totals reflected that. But then a precipitous decline set in.
Why the Slowdown?
HCFCD has not yet explained the slowdown except to say that, during the course of major programs like the Flood Bond, sometimes you hit lulls between major projects. But this slowdown has persisted for three months. No construction projects started last month. And Inwood-Forest stormwater-detention-basin construction likely won’t start for several more months.
At this point, explanations are in order. Last month, I suggested several:
Management Turnover – HCFCD recently lost its top three leaders who architected the Flood Bond: Russ Poppe, Matt Zeve, and Alan Black.
Less Experienced Management – Poppe was replaced by an academic who formerly managed the Subsidence District which has a budget one-thousandth the size of the 2018 flood bond.
More Layers of Management – There’s now a whole new department – County Administration – between Flood Control and Commissioners Court.
Delays in Other Departments – Community Services has failed to submit a plan for how to spend $750 million allocated to Harris County for flood mitigation by the Texas General Land Office and HUD.
Drawdown of Flood Resilience Trust Funds – The County is already running out of money in the Flood Resilience Trust Fund – a backup to keep projects moving in case grants, such as the $750 million, were delayed.
Yesterday HCFCD recommended pursuing a grant for Greens Bayou that would consume the current balance in the Flood Resilience Trust.
Bottom line: County Judge Lina Hidalgo needs to provide an explanation for the slowdown. This affects all Harris County residents, not just those in particular watersheds.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/30/2022
1919 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.