Go to almost any news source you can name and you will likely find an article about climate change. They generally manage to turn a local event into an international crisis.
The articles report on the latest freeze, heat wave, drought or flood somewhere in the world and tie that into similar stories affecting other areas. The aggregated anecdotal evidence makes it seem as though the world is burning; drowning; freezing; frying; being blown apart by hurricanes and tornadoes; etc.
One such article caught my eye this morning on the Associated Press website by a writer who appears to be from Phoenix. The headline trumpeted, “Heat waves like the one that’s killed 14 in the southern US are becoming more frequent and enduring.” Four paragraphs in, I read, “…extreme heat will only increase in the U.S. each summer without more action to combat climate change…”
That made it sound as though “the end is near.” The temperature is shooting straight up and I better buy an electric vehicle before I turn into charcoal!
So I emailed Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, and asked whether the alleged “facts” about the current heat wave cited in the article were true for the Houston area. Short answer: “In general, no.” But he did dig deeper to reveal some interesting nuance in the numbers.
Observations from Harris County’s Meteorologist
Lindner began, “The current hot weather is nowhere near the levels of 1980 or 2011 with respect to the longevity of the heat or the intensity…at least in southeast Texas. Along the Rio Grande temperature records have been broken including some all-time records.”
Then he added, “As for the claim about heatwaves becoming worse…climate models do suggest that heatwaves and drought will become increasingly common with climate change especially in the southern plains and Texas. This is most noted in the rise of overnight low temperatures in the summer months which we are seeing along the Texas coast, but not so much an increase in afternoon high temperatures.”
“The increasing summer low temperatures can be tied to the warm Gulf of Mexico waters that keep lows from falling much below 80 at night locally. They also help keep dew points elevated (as we have seen with this recent heat) resulting in the very high heat-index values over the last few weeks.
Sea surface temperature anomalies on 6/29/23. Source NOAA.
“While air temperatures have generally been in the upper 90’s for highs, it has been the high dew points that have combined with the high temperatures to result in the dangerous heat index values.“
Local Vs. Global
I am not questioning the AP’s integrity, nor the author’s intellect or intentions. She’s simply using a well-worn, time-honored template in news coverage. Lead with specific examples – heat-related deaths – that dramatize a larger problem.
You see it every night on the news: Someone was shot; crime is out of control! Big Bend hikers died; we need to do more about climate change!
The specifics give stories emotional oomph that dry statistics can’t. But the specifics can also mislead.
Should the story have been about the dangers of strenuous exercise in high temperatures? Or how the highs in Houston were higher 40 years ago?
Either approach would have been valid. Maybe even more valid than making the leap to climate change from one high pressure ridge. But…
I doubt the editors would have enthused over “Comparison of Recent Heat Waves Shows Houston Temps Falling.”
Bob Rehak
It doesn’t really fit the narrative.
I Wish…
When it comes to weather, the causes and trends aren’t always clear. For instance, is the current heat wave in Houston caused by emissions from internal combustion engines? Or is it caused by warm Gulf waters related to predictable El Niño-related changes in global wind patterns? If it’s the latter, is it fair to link it to the former?
Without taking a position on climate change one way or the other, I wish that climate reporting:
Put claims in historical context
Refrained from hysterical leaps into the distant future
Stopped making global generalizations from anecdotal evidence
Supported claims with more data
Scared people less and informed them more.
Ignoring the last point often backfires. Especially when you make global generalizations from local observations.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/30/2023
2131 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/SST-Anomalies-2023-06-30-at-1.42.16-PM.jpg?fit=1100%2C661&ssl=16611100adminadmin2023-06-30 16:32:512023-06-30 17:08:15The Problem with Climate-Change Hysteria
On 6/28/23, civic leaders from all levels of government gathered to celebrate the acquisition of enough funding to finally begin renovating Poor-Farm Ditch.
Poor-Farm Ditch runs from Greenway Plaza on the north to Brays Bayou on the south between West University Place and South Side Place. Harris County Flood Control District started studying ditch improvements more than 20 years ago. The 70-year-old, crumbling concrete ditch carries stormwater runoff from 1,330 highly developed acres.
Numerous Problems Associated with Poor-Farm Ditch
Poor-Farm Ditch has several problems:
Pieces of the crumbling concrete periodically collapse into the ditch and block it, exacerbating flooding.
Erosion threatens homes and businesses, which crowd the ditch on either side.
Adjacent properties have been built up as much as five feet. The existing channel walls were not designed to support that much weight.
Railroad ties and other earth-retaining features (used to stabilize the extra fill) have failed and fallen into the ditch, reducing its hydraulic capacity by 50% in places.
The channel’s width varies along its length, creating choke points in some places. Parts can handle a 100-year rain with room to spare while others can only handle a 10-year rain.
Encroachments have been constructed within the Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) right of way.
Press Conference Celebrates Funding Success At Long Last
U.S. Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher who secured $9.9 million for the $30+ million project kicked off today’s press conference by thanking all the officials and staff members present.
Left to right: West University Place Mayor Susan Sample, U.S. Representative Lizzie Fletcher, Harris County Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis (speaking), Southside Place Mayor Andy Chan, District 134State Rep. Ann Johnson, HCFCD Exec. Director Dr. Tina Petersen
Goals of Renovation
According to the funding request filed by Congresswoman Fletcher, the primary goal of the project is to avoid a failure of the existing channel by constructing an entirely new channel structure in its place.
Channel rehabilitation will reduce flood risk by improving hydraulic capacity. It will also improve HCFCD’s ability to provide maintenance.
The construction project will include maintenance access ramps for HCFCD, and reinforced pavement for inspection and “maintenance by foot” on top of the channel banks.
At the time, HCFCD said it would continue to perform spot repairs and debris clearing as needed.
Then in 2021, the project regained momentum. An engineering study concluded it would be necessary to mitigate the impacts of the proposed Poor-Farm Ditch improvements on Brays Bayou by providing 43 acre feet of stormwater detention along Brays Bayou.
The pictures below illustrate just some of these problems. HCFCD started studying the ditch in 2002. But it has taken until 2023 to raise enough money to address these issues.
Note how close homes and businesses are to the ditch. This turned out to be THE key design constraint. As both Southside and West U policemen told me today, “No one wanted to give up property to improve the ditch.Foliage over the ditch frequently forms log dams that can make flooding worse if not cleared promptly.Aging concrete requires frequent repair but access is poor.
Funding Will Come from Five Different Sources
Funding breaks down as follows:
$5.7 million from the Harris County Flood Control District
$150,000 from the City of Southside Place
$150,000 from the City of West University Place
$16.9 million from State of Texas
$9.9 million from Federal government
That puts the total secured funding at $32.8 million, enough to begin final design, bidding and construction.
Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher secured a huge win in Fiscal Year 2023 when she obtained a $9.9 million earmark.
But according to inside sources, Southside Mayor Chan, working with State Representative Ann Johnson and State Senator Joan Huffman secured the final funding needed for the project – another $16.9 million. Remarkably, the state earmark wasn’t even in the original budget bill this year, but was added during the conference committee phase!
Construction will not likely start until at least next year at the earliest according to Mayor Chan.
During the press conference, participants used the phrase “dogged determination” numerous times. To pull off a project like this requires committed partners to coordinate efforts and pursue funding relentlessly from municipal, county, state and federal governments.
Civic leaders from other areas could learn from this team.
NOAA’s Atlas 14, a massive, years-long effort, which hasn’t even been fully implemented yet, may already be seriously out of date according to First Street.
As a result, First Street claims the design standards for infrastructure projects based on erroneous Atlas-14 data are likely to fail. Trillions of infrastructure investment dollars hang in the balance.
Atlas 14 Probabilities for the North Houston area.
Moreover, for the first time ever, Atlas-15 probabilities will come in two flavors: with and without estimates for the impact of climate change.
First Street Foundation, a non-profit research and technology group, specializes in environmental risk assessment. They position their system, RiskFactor.com, as a stopgap until NOAA releases Atlas 15.
Time Lags Cause Confusion, Create Danger
FEMA still has not released flood maps based on the Atlas-14 probabilities above. The MAAPNext Group within Harris County Flood Control District has been working on those since Harvey. MAAPNext’s latest timeline (below) shows that FEMA may not make Atlas-14-based flood maps official for another 3+ years.
Engineers and government officials use this data when designing new subdivisions, industrial facilities, bridges, highways and other infrastructure.
For instance, they need to know, how high the bridge must be to let water flow under it during a flood to avoid catastrophes like the one below.
Old data led TxDoT to inadequately design the I-69 bridge over the San Jacinto West Fork. Repairs took more than a year after Harvey to complete while residents endured massive traffic jams.
Atlas 15 Underway Before Atlas 14 Implemented
A copyrighted article in the New York Times this morning by Raymond Zhong was titled “Intensifying Rains Pose Hidden Flood Risks Across the U.S.” In it, Mr. Zhong claims that new calculations show hazardous storms can dump significantly more water than previously believed.
“One in nine residents of the lower 48 states, largely in populous regions including the Mid-Atlantic and the Texas Gulf Coast, is at significant risk of downpours that deliver at least 50 percent more rain per hour than local pipes, channels and culverts might be designed to drain,” says Zhong.
Compounding the problem, “NOAA’s estimates are ‘the floor, not a ceiling,'” said Zhong, quoting Abdullah Hasan, a White House spokesman.
“That means millions of homeowners might be making decisions with an incomplete understanding of the true physical and financial risks they face,” said Zhong.
145,000 Houston Homes and Billions in Infrastructure Caught in Time Lag
Zhong quoted First Street Foundation, which said that in Houston alone, as many as 145,000 homes may be in the 100-year flood zone, but that they are not shown that way in current FEMA flood maps.
To put Atlas 15 and its climate change corrections into perspective…
First Street estimates that in Houston, what we currently think of as a 100-year flood may actually be an 8- to 23-year flood.
All this comes as the nation gears up to spend more than $1.2 trillion dollars on infrastructure which Congress and President Biden approved in 2021.
And that $1.2 trillion doesn’t even include the money homebuyers spend each year. About 30% of all household income in the U.S. goes toward housing. And the average American moves once every seven years.
That means virtually everyone is likely not making home-buying decisions based on the most current (accurate) flood probabilities. By the time FEMA releases Harvey-based Atlas-14 flood maps, Atlas-15 revisions will already be available to a select few.
While the Association of State Flood Plain Managers finds First Street data useful, it emailed a report at the close of business today about First Street. The report says that “ASFPM has and will continue to support NOAA’s work on Atlas 14 and 15, which will remain the gold standard within our profession.”
Problems Caused By Lack of Timely Updates
The vast majority of developers, homebuilders and engineers are ethical. But some less scrupulous developers can exploit confusion caused by irregular update policies.
Likewise, engineers who designed a bridge to one set of specs, may find their work out-dated before construction starts. What are the ethical obligations in a case like that?
Just this year, we’ve seen numerous instances of developers trying to get their plans grandfathered under pre-Atlas-14 regulations even as the U.S. moves toward Atlas 15. Little wonder that when a flood happens, few can explain where the system went wrong.
“The fact that the Nation will not have the most accurate estimates of extreme precipitation likelihoods available at the time of the design of these projects means that many of them will be out of date on the day they are opened to the public,” said Matthew Eby, Founder and Executive Director of First Street Foundation.
Governments at all levels need to work better together to shorten the data supply chain. Doing so could save Americans trillions of dollars.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/26/2023
2127 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/I69Damage-e1687824287612.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-06-26 19:14:102023-06-27 14:36:21New Data Suggests Houston’s Expected 100-Year Flood Is More Likely to Happen Every 8 to 23 Years
The Problem with Climate-Change Hysteria
Go to almost any news source you can name and you will likely find an article about climate change. They generally manage to turn a local event into an international crisis.
The articles report on the latest freeze, heat wave, drought or flood somewhere in the world and tie that into similar stories affecting other areas. The aggregated anecdotal evidence makes it seem as though the world is burning; drowning; freezing; frying; being blown apart by hurricanes and tornadoes; etc.
One such article caught my eye this morning on the Associated Press website by a writer who appears to be from Phoenix. The headline trumpeted, “Heat waves like the one that’s killed 14 in the southern US are becoming more frequent and enduring.” Four paragraphs in, I read, “…extreme heat will only increase in the U.S. each summer without more action to combat climate change…”
That made it sound as though “the end is near.” The temperature is shooting straight up and I better buy an electric vehicle before I turn into charcoal!
So I emailed Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, and asked whether the alleged “facts” about the current heat wave cited in the article were true for the Houston area. Short answer: “In general, no.” But he did dig deeper to reveal some interesting nuance in the numbers.
Observations from Harris County’s Meteorologist
Lindner began, “The current hot weather is nowhere near the levels of 1980 or 2011 with respect to the longevity of the heat or the intensity…at least in southeast Texas. Along the Rio Grande temperature records have been broken including some all-time records.”
Then he added, “As for the claim about heatwaves becoming worse…climate models do suggest that heatwaves and drought will become increasingly common with climate change especially in the southern plains and Texas. This is most noted in the rise of overnight low temperatures in the summer months which we are seeing along the Texas coast, but not so much an increase in afternoon high temperatures.”
“The increasing summer low temperatures can be tied to the warm Gulf of Mexico waters that keep lows from falling much below 80 at night locally. They also help keep dew points elevated (as we have seen with this recent heat) resulting in the very high heat-index values over the last few weeks.
“While air temperatures have generally been in the upper 90’s for highs, it has been the high dew points that have combined with the high temperatures to result in the dangerous heat index values.“
Local Vs. Global
I am not questioning the AP’s integrity, nor the author’s intellect or intentions. She’s simply using a well-worn, time-honored template in news coverage. Lead with specific examples – heat-related deaths – that dramatize a larger problem.
You see it every night on the news: Someone was shot; crime is out of control! Big Bend hikers died; we need to do more about climate change!
The specifics give stories emotional oomph that dry statistics can’t. But the specifics can also mislead.
Big Bend National Park, where the hikers died, is in the middle of a harsh, unforgiving, volcanic desert with little to no shade. Temperatures there reach 109 degrees and the average annual rainfall is only 13 inches. The last time I was at Big Bend, I saw dozens of signs warning people about sun, heat and running out of water. The county containing Big Bend is three times the size of Delaware, but has fewer than 10,000 people.
Should the story have been about the dangers of strenuous exercise in high temperatures? Or how the highs in Houston were higher 40 years ago?
Either approach would have been valid. Maybe even more valid than making the leap to climate change from one high pressure ridge. But…
It doesn’t really fit the narrative.
I Wish…
When it comes to weather, the causes and trends aren’t always clear. For instance, is the current heat wave in Houston caused by emissions from internal combustion engines? Or is it caused by warm Gulf waters related to predictable El Niño-related changes in global wind patterns? If it’s the latter, is it fair to link it to the former?
Without taking a position on climate change one way or the other, I wish that climate reporting:
Ignoring the last point often backfires. Especially when you make global generalizations from local observations.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/30/2023
2131 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Poor-Farm-Ditch Renovation Funding Finally Secured
On 6/28/23, civic leaders from all levels of government gathered to celebrate the acquisition of enough funding to finally begin renovating Poor-Farm Ditch.
Poor-Farm Ditch runs from Greenway Plaza on the north to Brays Bayou on the south between West University Place and South Side Place. Harris County Flood Control District started studying ditch improvements more than 20 years ago. The 70-year-old, crumbling concrete ditch carries stormwater runoff from 1,330 highly developed acres.
Numerous Problems Associated with Poor-Farm Ditch
Poor-Farm Ditch has several problems:
Press Conference Celebrates Funding Success At Long Last
U.S. Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher who secured $9.9 million for the $30+ million project kicked off today’s press conference by thanking all the officials and staff members present.
Goals of Renovation
According to the funding request filed by Congresswoman Fletcher, the primary goal of the project is to avoid a failure of the existing channel by constructing an entirely new channel structure in its place.
Channel rehabilitation will reduce flood risk by improving hydraulic capacity. It will also improve HCFCD’s ability to provide maintenance.
The construction project will include maintenance access ramps for HCFCD, and reinforced pavement for inspection and “maintenance by foot” on top of the channel banks.
In total, the project will benefit 523 structures and 1,036 people.
On-Again, Off-Again Project Finally Finds Funding
As you can see from the pictures below, buildings on the banks of the ditch leave little room for expansion. The project was actually put on hold for two years by Harris County Commissioners Court given lack of funding and lack of consensus support for the improvements among local leaders and residents.
At the time, HCFCD said it would continue to perform spot repairs and debris clearing as needed.
Then in 2021, the project regained momentum. An engineering study concluded it would be necessary to mitigate the impacts of the proposed Poor-Farm Ditch improvements on Brays Bayou by providing 43 acre feet of stormwater detention along Brays Bayou.
The pictures below illustrate just some of these problems. HCFCD started studying the ditch in 2002. But it has taken until 2023 to raise enough money to address these issues.
Funding Will Come from Five Different Sources
Funding breaks down as follows:
That puts the total secured funding at $32.8 million, enough to begin final design, bidding and construction.
Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher secured a huge win in Fiscal Year 2023 when she obtained a $9.9 million earmark.
But according to inside sources, Southside Mayor Chan, working with State Representative Ann Johnson and State Senator Joan Huffman secured the final funding needed for the project – another $16.9 million. Remarkably, the state earmark wasn’t even in the original budget bill this year, but was added during the conference committee phase!
Construction will not likely start until at least next year at the earliest according to Mayor Chan.
During the press conference, participants used the phrase “dogged determination” numerous times. To pull off a project like this requires committed partners to coordinate efforts and pursue funding relentlessly from municipal, county, state and federal governments.
Civic leaders from other areas could learn from this team.
How Ditch Got Its Name
The ditch gets its name from a Poor Farm established by Harris County Commissioners in 1894 in what is now West University Place.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/28/23
2129 Days since Hurricane Harvey
New Data Suggests Houston’s Expected 100-Year Flood Is More Likely to Happen Every 8 to 23 Years
First Street Foundation, a non-profit risk-research group, estimates (based on what it says are “well known” Atlas-14 flaws) that a so-called 100-year flood event in Houston could likely happen every 8 to 23 years.
NOAA’s Atlas 14, a massive, years-long effort, which hasn’t even been fully implemented yet, may already be seriously out of date according to First Street.
As a result, First Street claims the design standards for infrastructure projects based on erroneous Atlas-14 data are likely to fail. Trillions of infrastructure investment dollars hang in the balance.
NOAA Replacing Atlas 14 with Atlas 15 Already
NOAA expects to release its latest Atlas-15 rainfall probability statistics for the U.S. sometime in 2027. Like Atlas 14 below, they will contain probabilities for every location in the country – for durations ranging from 5 minutes to 60 days and recurrence intervals from 1 year to 1000 years.
Moreover, for the first time ever, Atlas-15 probabilities will come in two flavors: with and without estimates for the impact of climate change.
First Street Foundation, a non-profit research and technology group, specializes in environmental risk assessment. They position their system, RiskFactor.com, as a stopgap until NOAA releases Atlas 15.
Time Lags Cause Confusion, Create Danger
FEMA still has not released flood maps based on the Atlas-14 probabilities above. The MAAPNext Group within Harris County Flood Control District has been working on those since Harvey. MAAPNext’s latest timeline (below) shows that FEMA may not make Atlas-14-based flood maps official for another 3+ years.
Engineers and government officials use this data when designing new subdivisions, industrial facilities, bridges, highways and other infrastructure.
For instance, they need to know, how high the bridge must be to let water flow under it during a flood to avoid catastrophes like the one below.
Atlas 15 Underway Before Atlas 14 Implemented
A copyrighted article in the New York Times this morning by Raymond Zhong was titled “Intensifying Rains Pose Hidden Flood Risks Across the U.S.” In it, Mr. Zhong claims that new calculations show hazardous storms can dump significantly more water than previously believed.
“One in nine residents of the lower 48 states, largely in populous regions including the Mid-Atlantic and the Texas Gulf Coast, is at significant risk of downpours that deliver at least 50 percent more rain per hour than local pipes, channels and culverts might be designed to drain,” says Zhong.
Compounding the problem, “NOAA’s estimates are ‘the floor, not a ceiling,'” said Zhong, quoting Abdullah Hasan, a White House spokesman.
“That means millions of homeowners might be making decisions with an incomplete understanding of the true physical and financial risks they face,” said Zhong.
145,000 Houston Homes and Billions in Infrastructure Caught in Time Lag
Zhong quoted First Street Foundation, which said that in Houston alone, as many as 145,000 homes may be in the 100-year flood zone, but that they are not shown that way in current FEMA flood maps.
To put Atlas 15 and its climate change corrections into perspective…
All this comes as the nation gears up to spend more than $1.2 trillion dollars on infrastructure which Congress and President Biden approved in 2021.
And that $1.2 trillion doesn’t even include the money homebuyers spend each year. About 30% of all household income in the U.S. goes toward housing. And the average American moves once every seven years.
That means virtually everyone is likely not making home-buying decisions based on the most current (accurate) flood probabilities. By the time FEMA releases Harvey-based Atlas-14 flood maps, Atlas-15 revisions will already be available to a select few.
While the Association of State Flood Plain Managers finds First Street data useful, it emailed a report at the close of business today about First Street. The report says that “ASFPM has and will continue to support NOAA’s work on Atlas 14 and 15, which will remain the gold standard within our profession.”
Problems Caused By Lack of Timely Updates
The vast majority of developers, homebuilders and engineers are ethical. But some less scrupulous developers can exploit confusion caused by irregular update policies.
Likewise, engineers who designed a bridge to one set of specs, may find their work out-dated before construction starts. What are the ethical obligations in a case like that?
Just this year, we’ve seen numerous instances of developers trying to get their plans grandfathered under pre-Atlas-14 regulations even as the U.S. moves toward Atlas 15. Little wonder that when a flood happens, few can explain where the system went wrong.
“The fact that the Nation will not have the most accurate estimates of extreme precipitation likelihoods available at the time of the design of these projects means that many of them will be out of date on the day they are opened to the public,” said Matthew Eby, Founder and Executive Director of First Street Foundation.
Governments at all levels need to work better together to shorten the data supply chain. Doing so could save Americans trillions of dollars.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/26/2023
2127 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.