Updated 3/7/26 – I wrote my first post about Colony Ridge in May 2020. Since then, I have written more than 80 about the controversial, Liberty County colonia that’s now 50% larger than Manhattan. Virtually all of them cover aspects of drainage, wetlands and flooding, as well as the development’s impact on people, the environment and surrounding areas.
The articles also include stories on surrounding developments by the same developer, but operating under different names. But you do not need those to support the 50% larger calculation above.
I’m listing all of my Colony-Ridge-related stories here to make them easier for readers to find.
Colonia Now Drawing National Attention
During the past 3+ years, the growth of Colony Ridge, an unincorporated development, has overwhelmed smaller incorporated areas around it such as Plum Grove and Cleveland.
As a result, fast-growing Colony Ridge has attracted national attention by numerous journalists, not all of it welcomed by the developer. My focus has been almost exclusively on flooding, drainage and water quality issues. Other journalists have focused on crime, cartels, drugs, illegal immigration, overwhelmed schools, predatory lending practices, evictions, the marketing practices of the developer and more.
Here is a list of the drainage related articles. I’ve also taken thousands of pictures – far too many to insert them all here. But I have included a few. See more when you follow the links below.
2020
Due to failure to follow drainage regulations, erosion is eating people’s yards.Note gap under new fence.
I took this shot shortly before Christmas. Poverty in Colony Ridge is heartbreaking. Note the food still on the table. Residents say multiple families often live in such a home.
Dirt often piled by the sides of ditches erodes back into the ditches and gets carried downstream. There, it can reduce conveyance and must be dredged to control flood risk.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/20/2023and updated on 3/7/26
2213 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20210101-RJR_4808.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-09-20 11:56:412026-03-07 04:52:58History of Heartbreak: A Colony Ridge Chronicle
Recent expansion of the Colony Ridge development in Liberty County means that the controversial colonia is now 50 percent bigger than Manhattan.
By advertising exclusively to Hispanics under the name Terrenos Houston (translation: Houston Land), the developer has largely managed to fly under the radar of regulators as it rapidly expands.
Comparison Of Areas in Google Earth
Colony Ridge now occupies approximately 34.5 square miles. The developer also owns additional land in surrounding areas not yet under development or being developed under different names. But I have NOT counted those areas in this comparison.
In contrast, Google Earth shows that the island of Manhattan occupies 22.8 square miles.
That means Colony Ridge is 51% larger than Manhattan. Yet few people have ever heard of Colony Ridge. As proud Texans, we need to change that.
Other Comparisons of Manhattan and Colony Ridge
Population
Of course, Manhattan still has the population edge over Colony Ridge: 1.6 million vs. something less. The exact population of Colony Ridge is unknown because many undocumented aliens live there who avoided the last census.
Commerce
And…
While Manhattan is a center of world commerce, Colony Ridge has a dollar store and an ice machine.
So Colony Ridge has some catching up to do in the “commerce” department.
Car Repair
Many people in Manhattan don’t bother to own cars, so repair places are few and far between.
But people need vehicles to get around in Colony Ridge; there is no public transit. Accordingly, the development has far more shade-tree mechanics.
And the parking is much easier and cheaper in Colony Ridge than Manhattan.
How many people in Manhattan can park 30 cars in their yard while they work on them?
Scenic Rivers
Manhattan is surrounded by iconic rivers. Colony Ridge has rivers of mud. But at least kids can play soccer in them during droughts.
Manhattan is famous for its trash. In fact, trash there has helped decide mayoral elections going back decades. Colony Ridge doesn’t have a mayor, so trash is rarely an issue.
Common sight in Colony Ridge yards.
Advantage Colony Ridge…if you’re a hoarder.
Home Values
Manhattan is also famous for high-priced real estate. Colony Ridge is famous for its low-priced real estate. Advantage: Colony Ridge on that score. No wonder it’s growing so fast!
Tarps are popular roof alternatives in Colony Ridge. They hold down home repair costs.
That’s important. Look at the angle on the left front corner of the home above.
Parking Your Home
Manhattan has absolutely no place to park your home. However, Colony Ridge has thousands of acres. Advantage Colony Ridge…again!
I’d count this one a toss up, however. Why? It still can take hours to get into and out of BOTH Manhattan AND Colony Ridge.
Diversity
Manhattan is widely regarded as a cross-roads of the world and hosts the United Nations.
Colony Ridge IS the united nations…of South America, Central America, and Mexico in Liberty County.
Regardless, I’d have to give the diversity advantage to Manhattan. I don’t see the Colony Ridge developer taking any initiative to reach out to Poles, Jews, Italians, Irish, Asians, Germans, Czechs, Scandinavians, Indians, Africans or other ethnicities.
Fire Hydrants
In Manhattan, people are always tripping over fire hydrants and most buildings are sprinklered.
In Colony Ridge, though, they’ve learned to make do without all those trip hazards that can drive up the developer’s costs. Colony Ridge has a grand total of 59 hydrants in an area 50 percent bigger than Manhattan.
Hotel Costs
A hotel room in Manhattan can easily cost hundreds of dollars per night. But people can pitch tents in Colony Ridge and avoid all those pesky mini-bar fees while they work out their business deals.
Colony Ridge Hotel
Plus, you’ll see waaaay more stars in Colony Ridge. Advantage: Liberty County.
Write Your Favorite Travel Guide
Surely everyone can agree that Colony Ridge deserves a place in all of the state’s travel guides. Colony Ridge is truly a tribute to what lack of regulation and enforcement can produce.
We have something unique in Colony Ridge that is a tribute to Texas ingenuity – a place that welcomes people without papers and makes entrepreneurs rich. Let’s put it on the tourist maps and focus the world’s attention on a true Texas marvel.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/17/2023
2210 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230812-RJR_5769-1.jpg?fit=1100%2C728&ssl=17281100adminadmin2023-09-17 19:18:192023-09-19 14:44:53Colony Ridge Now 50 Percent Bigger than Manhattan
Noon, September 16, 2023 – An Associated Press headline this morning trumpeted “Climate change could bring more monster storms like Hurricane Lee to New England.” I immediately went to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) website to see the most current conditions. Lee had been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone with 75 mph winds.
But it still covers a lot of territory. As of noon, Lee is producing 1-2 foot storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds in portions of Maine. NHC gave the northeastern tip of Maine a 5-15% chance of flash flooding. They predict 1-4 inches of rain over portions of the state that receive rain, though the extreme eastern tip may get up to 6 inches.
Satellite image shows Lee’s influence stretching from maritime Canada to New Jersey.
Does Climate Data Support AP Claim?
Next, I went to NHC’s Climatology page to see how unusual hurricanes are in New England. Because of the colder waters, they’re certainly not as frequent as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. But they’re also not unusual as you can clearly see from the image below. It shows hurricane tracks going back to 1851.
Red lines show hurricanes with the winds from 64-90 mph.
Next, I looked at the points of origin for Atlantic storms in the 10-day period each season from Sept. 11 – 20.
Going back to 1851, we can see that dozens of storms have followed Lee’s path .
In fact, during September, there’s at least a 70% annual chance that a hurricane will affect this region (see below).
Lee’s track is THE most common for named storms in the Atlantic during September (red area).
Data goes from 1944 to 2020, but is normalized for 100 years. 1944 was the year NOAA started tracking hurricanes with aircraft.
The AP article related higher than normal sea surface temperatures to BOTH climate change and the risk of being affected by a hurricane in New England. It’s true that temperatures ARE above average off the New England coast this year. But it’s also true that temperatures cycle above and below an “average.” You can’t assume that sea surface temperatures ALWAYS increase.
This 28-second animation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from 2002-2011 shows how temperatures vary monthly and annually around the world as well as off the coast of New England.
Starting point of animation is August 2002. Note below-normal sea-surface temps off New England coast.
During the decade covered by the animation, SSTs varied from above to below average five times by my count.
It’s fair to relate one stronger than normal hurricane to higher than normal sea surface temperatures. But it’s not valid to assume that hurricanes will continue to get stronger when sea surface temperatures decrease.
The Curse of Data Truncation
And that brings me to my gripe – data truncation in reporting. “Truncation” means “cutting short,” for instance, when you pick start or stop points in an analysis to prove the trend you allege.
Example: you point to above-normal SSTs (this year) and one waning post-tropical storm. Then you conclude that “climate change could bring more monster storms like Lee.”
The implication: climate change is linear and temperatures are going straight up. Therefore, we can expect more monster storms in New England – where Lee will not even make landfall.
Reporting Turned into Advocacy
AP is a great news organization. But on the issue of climate uncertainty, they have crossed the line between reporting and advocacy. AP even admits it.
To their credit, in 2022, AP announced “a sweeping climate change initiative.” They hired 20 additional journalists to supplement existing staff already dedicated to covering climate change. Their mission: “to infuse climate coverage in all aspects of the news…”
To help finance its climate coverage, AP accepts backing from several foundations, including the Rockefeller Foundation, which admits, “Our focus is on scaling renewable energy.”
I’m not saying that AP or the Rockefeller Foundation deliberately misled people to further an agenda.
However, I can promise you that writers write about what clients want them to write about. And if they don’t, well, hundreds of other writers are lined up ready to take their jobs.
This isn’t a conspiracy. It’s just the way the world works.
Other News Sources Delivered Different Interpretation
Everyone should read critically and consult multiple sources. Triangulate on the truth. Had you read someone else’s coverage, you would have reached totally different conclusions. In that regard, I note several stories posted AFTER AP’s story on Lee that did not even mention climate change once. See CNN,CBS, New York Times, NBC, Reuters,USA Today, or Fox, for instance.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/16/2023
2209 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230916-1851_2017_allstorms.jpg?fit=1100%2C724&ssl=17241100adminadmin2023-09-16 11:54:002023-09-16 12:25:20Hurricane Lee, Climatology, Data Truncation and the News
History of Heartbreak: A Colony Ridge Chronicle
Updated 3/7/26 – I wrote my first post about Colony Ridge in May 2020. Since then, I have written more than 80 about the controversial, Liberty County colonia that’s now 50% larger than Manhattan. Virtually all of them cover aspects of drainage, wetlands and flooding, as well as the development’s impact on people, the environment and surrounding areas.
The articles also include stories on surrounding developments by the same developer, but operating under different names. But you do not need those to support the 50% larger calculation above.
I’m listing all of my Colony-Ridge-related stories here to make them easier for readers to find.
Colonia Now Drawing National Attention
During the past 3+ years, the growth of Colony Ridge, an unincorporated development, has overwhelmed smaller incorporated areas around it such as Plum Grove and Cleveland.
As a result, fast-growing Colony Ridge has attracted national attention by numerous journalists, not all of it welcomed by the developer. My focus has been almost exclusively on flooding, drainage and water quality issues. Other journalists have focused on crime, cartels, drugs, illegal immigration, overwhelmed schools, predatory lending practices, evictions, the marketing practices of the developer and more.
Here is a list of the drainage related articles. I’ve also taken thousands of pictures – far too many to insert them all here. But I have included a few. See more when you follow the links below.
2020
May 3, 2020 Development Watchlist: Perry, Romerica, Colony Ridge and More
June 14, 2020 Rapid Runoff from World’s Largest Trailer Park Wipes Out Plum Grove Road in Liberty County and More
June 15, 2020 World’s Largest Trailer Park Has Only a Handful of Fire Hydrants
June 19, 2020 “The Developers Are Coming! The Developers Are Coming!”
June 23, 2020 48,000 Gallons of Fecal Contamination Found in Liberty County’s Colony Ridge Ditches, Streams; Problems Persist
June 24, 2020 Hidden Cost of Fecal Contamination: Removing It
October 14, 2020 TCEQ Fines Quadvest for 48,000 Gallon Sewage Spill in Colony Ridge
October 15, 2020 Plum Grove Sues Colony Ridge Developer Over Floodwater, Sewage Leaks
October 16, 2020 TCEQ Blasts Colony Ridge, Says Construction Practices Could Adversely Affect Human Health
October 22, 2020 How Loss of Wetlands Led to War
October 25, 2020 New Drone Shots Reveal Need for Better Flood Control in Liberty County
November 12, 2020 Flood Notes: Highlights of Current Happenings
November 20, 2020 Friday Flood Digest
November 27, 2020 Colony Ridge Declares War on Investigative Journalist, Too
December 1, 2020 Flood of Foreclosures: Hundreds to Lose Colony Ridge Homes Tomorrow
December 5, 2020 Colony Ridge Ditches Violate Liberty County Drainage Standards
December 7, 2020 Merry Christmas from Colony Ridge
December 10, 2020 Rivers of Mud: Largest Development in Liberty County Openly Flaunts Drainage Regulations
December 12, 2020 Rivers of Mud, Part Dos: Wayne Dolcefino Uncovers More Liberty County Dirt
December 14, 2020 Liberty County Strategic Plan … Dead On Arrival
December 16, 2020 Liberty County Hazard Mitigation Plan Contains No Mention of Largest, Most Vulnerable Community in County
December 21, 2020 “One of the Best Land Developers in Liberty County”
December 23, 2020 Preserve What Makes Lake Houston Area Unique
December 26, 2020 Colony Ridge Drainage Reports Misrepresent Soil Types, Underestimate Runoff; Many Reports Missing
December 29, 2020 When Developers Claim No Detention Ponds are Necessary…
2021
January 2, 2021 Guess Which Way to Colony Ridge
January 3, 2021 Flooding of the Fifth Kind: By Government Neglect
January 4, 2021 Liberty County Launches Major Investigation into Colony Ridge Irregularities
January 10, 2021 New Wetland Mitigation Bank Proposed for Areas Upstream from Lake Houston
January 11, 2021 Thousands of Acres in East Fork, Luce Bayou Watersheds to be Developed as Part of Kingland
January 17, 2021 Rosemay Fain’s Harvey and Imelda Stories
February 1, 2021 Colony Ridge Developer Sues Critics For More Than Million Dollars Based on Questionable Allegations
March 6, 2021 Photo Essay: How “Backslope Interceptors” Reduce Erosion, Ditch Maintenance, Flood Risk
April 23, 2021 Silence: Liberty County, Colony Ridge, Landplan Engineering Remain Mute on Missing Documents
April 25, 2021 Officials Slapped With Criminal Complaints for Failure to Produce Records in Colony Ridge Investigation
May 3, 2021 Rampaging East Fork Floodwaters Cut New Path Through Plum Grove Sand Mine
May 3, 2021 Floodwaters Converging Downstream on Lake Houston
May 4, 2021 Family Trapped For Three Days As Floodwaters Ripped Through Sand Mine, Then Under Their Home
May 27, 2021 State Highway 99 Construction Pushes South, Opening Vast Areas to New Development
June 5, 2021 Eight TCEQ Investigations Reprimand Colony Ridge Construction Practices
June 9, 2021 Follow-ups: Whatever became of…?
June 10, 2021 Colony Ridge Expanding North Into More Wetlands
June 20, 2021 What’s Going On in Your Neighborhood?
July 8, 2021 To Reduce Future Flooding, We Need to Focus on BOTH Mitigation AND Root Causes
July 15, 2021 FM1485: What’s Wrong With This Picture?
July 15, 2021 Town Fighting for Survival Stonewalled By County, State Officials at Every Turn
September 3, 2021 TCEQ Again Cites Colony Ridge for Lack of Pollution Controls
November 16, 2021 Sowing the Seeds of the Next Big Flood
November 29, 2021 How to Find and Verify Flood-Related Information: Part II
December 4, 2021 Grand Parkway Extension is Getting There
December 6, 2021 “…Care Will Be Taken to Protect All Vegetation…”
December 31, 2021 Top Stories of 2021 in Review
2022
January 20, 2022 What Does “No Adverse Impact” Really Mean in Drainage Studies?
February 16, 2022 Texas Land-Use Trends: Major Changes Coming
February 23, 2022 How Soon We Forget!
May 17, 2022 Grand Parkway Extension Opens Tomorrow
July 23, 2022 Controversial Colony Ridge Development Doubles in Size
July 29, 2022 Kingland West Clearing 1,123 Acres at FM1010 and Grand Parkway, Using Old Flood Maps
2023
May 31, 2023, How a Controversial, Little Understood Definition Affects Flooding
August 4, 2023 Colony Ridge Buying Up Floodplain Land in Huffman
August 13, 2023 Six Years After Harvey, Bridge Still Blown Out at Colony Ridge
August 16, 2023 Colony Ridge Stormwater Detention Basins, Ditches Fail to Meet Liberty County Standards
August 29, 2023 Harvey Flood’s Sixth Anniversary Passes Virtually Unnoticed
August 30, 2023 As Wildfire Weather Sets In, Fastest Growing Area in Liberty County Fails to Meet Fire-Code Requirements
September 9, 2023 Damn the Downstream Consequences, Colony Ridge Expansion Continues Relentlessly
September 17, 2023 Colony Ridge Now 50 Percent Bigger than Manhattan
October 1, 2023 Entire Texas Republican Congressional Delegation Urges Abbott, Paxton to Investigate Colony Ridge
October 5, 2023 New York Post Publishes Gripping Exposé on Colony Ridge
October 7, 2023 Colony Ridge Karma: Area Floods While Developer Hosts Lawmakers
October 8, 2023 Karma Strikes Again: Colony Ridge Drainage Systems Severely Eroding
October 9, 2023 Recommendations for Special Session of Texas Legislature on Colony Ridge
October 11, 2023 Harris County Commissioners Discuss Colony Ridge but Take No Position Yet
October 19, 2023 Paxton Letter Kicks Colony Ridge Concerns Up a Notch or Ten
October 20, 2023 Search for Sediment Solutions Should Lead Straight to Colony Ridge
December 12, 2023 DOJ, CFPB Sue Colony Ridge for Bait-and-Switch, Predatory Lending and More
2024
January 5, 2024 Harris County to Reconsider Colony Ridge Impacts
January 9, 2024 At Least Seven Investigations Launched into Colony Ridge
March 15, 2024 Paxton Launches Massive, Multi-Count Lawsuit Against Colony Ridge
March 31, 2024 Wildly Divergent Colony Ridge Population Estimates Pose Planning Problems
2025
February 10, 2025 TLDA Email Details Need to Exploit Immigrants
February 12, 2025 Colony Ridge Foreclosure Notices Appear to Routinely Ignore Texas Law
November 20, 2025 Conflict-of-Interest Ridden Colony Ridge Caught Operating without Permit, Polluting
December 24, 2025, Colony Ridge Attempting to Settle Lawsuits, Avoid Trial
2026
February 10, 2026 Colony Ridge Settles Lawsuit with U.S., State of Texas
March 5, 2026 Colony Ridge Victims Protest Settlement That Leaves Them Out
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/20/2023 and updated on 3/7/26
2213 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Colony Ridge Now 50 Percent Bigger than Manhattan
Recent expansion of the Colony Ridge development in Liberty County means that the controversial colonia is now 50 percent bigger than Manhattan.
By advertising exclusively to Hispanics under the name Terrenos Houston (translation: Houston Land), the developer has largely managed to fly under the radar of regulators as it rapidly expands.
Comparison Of Areas in Google Earth
Colony Ridge now occupies approximately 34.5 square miles. The developer also owns additional land in surrounding areas not yet under development or being developed under different names. But I have NOT counted those areas in this comparison.
In contrast, Google Earth shows that the island of Manhattan occupies 22.8 square miles.
That means Colony Ridge is 51% larger than Manhattan. Yet few people have ever heard of Colony Ridge. As proud Texans, we need to change that.
Other Comparisons of Manhattan and Colony Ridge
Population
Of course, Manhattan still has the population edge over Colony Ridge: 1.6 million vs. something less. The exact population of Colony Ridge is unknown because many undocumented aliens live there who avoided the last census.
Commerce
And…
So Colony Ridge has some catching up to do in the “commerce” department.
Car Repair
Many people in Manhattan don’t bother to own cars, so repair places are few and far between.
But people need vehicles to get around in Colony Ridge; there is no public transit. Accordingly, the development has far more shade-tree mechanics.
And the parking is much easier and cheaper in Colony Ridge than Manhattan.
Scenic Rivers
Manhattan is surrounded by iconic rivers. Colony Ridge has rivers of mud. But at least kids can play soccer in them during droughts.
Trash
Manhattan is famous for its trash. In fact, trash there has helped decide mayoral elections going back decades. Colony Ridge doesn’t have a mayor, so trash is rarely an issue.
Advantage Colony Ridge…if you’re a hoarder.
Home Values
Manhattan is also famous for high-priced real estate. Colony Ridge is famous for its low-priced real estate. Advantage: Colony Ridge on that score. No wonder it’s growing so fast!
That’s important. Look at the angle on the left front corner of the home above.
Parking Your Home
Manhattan has absolutely no place to park your home. However, Colony Ridge has thousands of acres. Advantage Colony Ridge…again!
Yes, in Colony Ridge, Liberty County has something to write home about.
Access
Manhattan is famous for its bridges and tunnels. So is Colony Ridge. This bridge on FM1010 has been washed out for six years.
I’d count this one a toss up, however. Why? It still can take hours to get into and out of BOTH Manhattan AND Colony Ridge.
Diversity
Manhattan is widely regarded as a cross-roads of the world and hosts the United Nations.
Colony Ridge IS the united nations…of South America, Central America, and Mexico in Liberty County.
Regardless, I’d have to give the diversity advantage to Manhattan. I don’t see the Colony Ridge developer taking any initiative to reach out to Poles, Jews, Italians, Irish, Asians, Germans, Czechs, Scandinavians, Indians, Africans or other ethnicities.
Fire Hydrants
In Manhattan, people are always tripping over fire hydrants and most buildings are sprinklered.
In Colony Ridge, though, they’ve learned to make do without all those trip hazards that can drive up the developer’s costs. Colony Ridge has a grand total of 59 hydrants in an area 50 percent bigger than Manhattan.
Hotel Costs
A hotel room in Manhattan can easily cost hundreds of dollars per night. But people can pitch tents in Colony Ridge and avoid all those pesky mini-bar fees while they work out their business deals.
Plus, you’ll see waaaay more stars in Colony Ridge. Advantage: Liberty County.
Write Your Favorite Travel Guide
Surely everyone can agree that Colony Ridge deserves a place in all of the state’s travel guides. Colony Ridge is truly a tribute to what lack of regulation and enforcement can produce.
Let’s start a campaign to get it noticed. Write Fodors, National Geographic, TxDoT, Texas Highways, and Texas Monthly.
We have something unique in Colony Ridge that is a tribute to Texas ingenuity – a place that welcomes people without papers and makes entrepreneurs rich. Let’s put it on the tourist maps and focus the world’s attention on a true Texas marvel.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/17/2023
2210 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Hurricane Lee, Climatology, Data Truncation and the News
Noon, September 16, 2023 – An Associated Press headline this morning trumpeted “Climate change could bring more monster storms like Hurricane Lee to New England.” I immediately went to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) website to see the most current conditions. Lee had been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone with 75 mph winds.
But it still covers a lot of territory. As of noon, Lee is producing 1-2 foot storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds in portions of Maine. NHC gave the northeastern tip of Maine a 5-15% chance of flash flooding. They predict 1-4 inches of rain over portions of the state that receive rain, though the extreme eastern tip may get up to 6 inches.
Does Climate Data Support AP Claim?
Next, I went to NHC’s Climatology page to see how unusual hurricanes are in New England. Because of the colder waters, they’re certainly not as frequent as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. But they’re also not unusual as you can clearly see from the image below. It shows hurricane tracks going back to 1851.
Next, I looked at the points of origin for Atlantic storms in the 10-day period each season from Sept. 11 – 20.
In fact, during September, there’s at least a 70% annual chance that a hurricane will affect this region (see below).
Data goes from 1944 to 2020, but is normalized for 100 years. 1944 was the year NOAA started tracking hurricanes with aircraft.
The AP article related higher than normal sea surface temperatures to BOTH climate change and the risk of being affected by a hurricane in New England. It’s true that temperatures ARE above average off the New England coast this year. But it’s also true that temperatures cycle above and below an “average.” You can’t assume that sea surface temperatures ALWAYS increase.
This 28-second animation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from 2002-2011 shows how temperatures vary monthly and annually around the world as well as off the coast of New England.
It’s fair to relate one stronger than normal hurricane to higher than normal sea surface temperatures. But it’s not valid to assume that hurricanes will continue to get stronger when sea surface temperatures decrease.
The Curse of Data Truncation
And that brings me to my gripe – data truncation in reporting. “Truncation” means “cutting short,” for instance, when you pick start or stop points in an analysis to prove the trend you allege.
Example: you point to above-normal SSTs (this year) and one waning post-tropical storm. Then you conclude that “climate change could bring more monster storms like Lee.”
The implication: climate change is linear and temperatures are going straight up. Therefore, we can expect more monster storms in New England – where Lee will not even make landfall.
Reporting Turned into Advocacy
AP is a great news organization. But on the issue of climate uncertainty, they have crossed the line between reporting and advocacy. AP even admits it.
To their credit, in 2022, AP announced “a sweeping climate change initiative.” They hired 20 additional journalists to supplement existing staff already dedicated to covering climate change. Their mission: “to infuse climate coverage in all aspects of the news…”
To help finance its climate coverage, AP accepts backing from several foundations, including the Rockefeller Foundation, which admits, “Our focus is on scaling renewable energy.”
I’m not saying that AP or the Rockefeller Foundation deliberately misled people to further an agenda.
However, I can promise you that writers write about what clients want them to write about. And if they don’t, well, hundreds of other writers are lined up ready to take their jobs.
This isn’t a conspiracy. It’s just the way the world works.
Other News Sources Delivered Different Interpretation
Everyone should read critically and consult multiple sources. Triangulate on the truth. Had you read someone else’s coverage, you would have reached totally different conclusions. In that regard, I note several stories posted AFTER AP’s story on Lee that did not even mention climate change once. See CNN, CBS, New York Times, NBC, Reuters, USA Today, or Fox, for instance.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/16/2023
2209 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.