Early this morning, the National Weather Service issued a flood watch for areas north of the Houston Metropolitan area. It will remain in effect through midnight tonight.
As of 2PM, NWS extended the flood watch to include Harris, Fort Bend, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, and Liberty Counties through Wednesday morning.
Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner predicts heavy rainfall toward I-10 and the coast by tonight. More rain on top of what has already fallen along with elevated creeks and streams led to issuing the flood watches.
Five of the six watersheds most in danger of flooding flow into the Lake Houston Area. And the SJRA is releasing water from Lake Conroe.
Flood watch map from NWS Houston/Galveston officefor Wednesday AM
Forecast for Next 48 Hours
The ground has generally been saturated by yesterday’s rain and NWS predicts additional heavy rains today and tomorrow. The total could approach another 4.5 inches in the Lake Houston Area and even more to the north and west.
Those same areas received the highest rainfall totals yesterday on 1/22/24. Luckily, the rain has been fairly spread out until now.
Only One Stream in Region Currently Out of Banks
The San Jacinto West Fork came out of its banks at Highway 30 yesterday afternoon and is still out at noon on Tuesday, although waters have receded approximately a foot since the peak early this morning.
However, the Harris County Flood Warning system is also flashing warning signs for areas in the upper Cypress and Spring Creek Watersheds. All of those creeks are still within their banks as of noon Tuesday.
The map below shows the rainfall totals for the last 48 hours. Note how they peak in the north and west.
A gage on the Trinity River just west of Lake Livingston (not shown below) received 4.8 inches in the last 36 hours.
Two-day totals as of Noon 1/23/24
Lakes Conroe and Houston Both Releasing Water
Heavy rains north and west of Lake Conroe have led the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) to open the floodgates at Lake Conroe. The lake level is currently at 201.61 feet (normal 201) and the SJRA is releasing at a rate of 2665 cubic feet per second as a precaution against much larger releases later.
The City began releasing water from Lake Houston last Sunday in anticipation of this rainfall. At the noon hour on 1/23/24, Lake Houston is still slightly below normal. It is at 41.57 feet; normal is 42.4. But there’s much more headed toward the dam.
How to Monitor Flood Potential
If you live near water, monitor conditions closely.
Remember: It’s not just the rain that falls where you are at that causes flooding. Look upstream to see what’s coming at you.
We should begin to see some rises in the Lake Houston Area soon because of Lake Conroe releases and the heavy rainfall upstream on Spring and Cypress Creeks. They are the three main tributaries that govern the volume of water flowing into Lake Houston from the west.
The West Fork at US59 is still well below flood stage because of the Lake Houston release. Regardless, the river rose there almost 2 feet in the last 16 hours.
Streams Most in Danger of Flooding
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, expects the heaviest rains to shift from the north toward the south later today. Lindner said, “Rises will continue along upper Spring and upper Cypress Creeks this morning as upstream run-off moves downstream.”
“No flooding is currently expected,” continued Lindner, “but high flows in these creeks will continue today into tomorrow. This area will be particularly sensitive to additional rainfall and will need to be monitored closely.”
“Also watch the San Jacinto River basin,” said Lindner. “Due to the widespread nature of the rains, run-off is starting to work into the basin and minor flooding will be possible along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River later this week.”
Lindner says the Harris County streams most in danger of flooding include:
Cypress Creek
Spring Creek
Little Cypress Creek
Lower South Mayde Creek
Willow Creek
San Jacinto River basin
All but Mayde Creek flow into Lake Houston. If you are unfamiliar with the watersheds around us, here is a map.
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) flood-mitigation spending finished down for the third year in a row last year. Spending for all four quarters totaled $243.1 million, a little more than half of its peak in 2020.
Spending for 2023 was 56% of its 20-year peak in 2020 at $433 million. Here are the exact amounts spent by HCFCD year by year since 2000.
Possible Reasons for Slowdown
HCFCD flood-mitigation spending increased each quarter last year, but the total wasn’t enough to prevent another annual decline.
HCFCD watchers have conjectured about possible reasons for the slowdown. They include:
The departures of key executives who sold the 2018 flood bond
A focus on planning how to spend $850 million in U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) funds administered by the Texas General Land Office (GLO)
Loss of experience in related county departments, such as IT, that provide support to HCFCD.
Bond Fully Funded, But Inflation Taking Toll
Despite the slowdown, there was some very good news last year. During 2023, thanks to those HUD funds, the 2018 flood bond became fully funded.
The original bond contained approximately $5 billion in projects. But voters approved only $2.5 billion. The ambitious project list associated with the bond contained a bet that HCFCD could raise as much money from partners as it did from voters. And last year, the District did just that. Partner commitments now exceed another $2.5 billion.
Now, HCFCD must spend the money before inflation steals it away. Inflation has already reduced the purchasing power of bond funds by 15-20% in the last four years. Twenty percent of a $5 billion, is another billion that the grant writers must raise just to stay even.
Where is Money Going? Will There Be Enough to Finish All Projects?
That raises two questions, “Where is the money going?” It certainly isn’t going proportionally to all watersheds or precincts.
The four graphs and tables below show where the flood-bond money and partner money has gone since Harvey and during the last quarter.
County-wide projects include such things as planning, MAAPnext, subdivision drainage projects and preliminary planning for flood tunnels (see Z-level projects at end of list).
Q3 2017 through end of 2023.
Note that “Since Harvey” includes a year’s worth of spending not in the flood bond. Voters passed the bond on the first anniversary of Harvey. The District spent $172 million during that year. So the actual amount of bond/partner funds spent to date should total a bit over $1.8 billion.
Q4 2023 Spending Shows Shifts in Some Spending Priorities
Compare those figures with the last quarter of 2023 to see how priorities have or haven’t changed.
By comparing this bar chart with the one immediately above, we can see that relative spending in the San Jacinto watershed has remained consistent if dismal. The county’s largest watershed ranked 14th since Harvey and 13th last quarter.
Other noteworthy observations:
Brays Bayou spending dropped to fourth place from its perennial spot atop the pyramid. Most projects in Project Brays are now completed.
Willow Creek dropped from eighth place to last.
Sims Bayou jumped from 12th place to 6th.
Spending in the Little Cypress Creek watershed jumped to first place from fifth…even outpacing county-wide spending. That may be related to engineering for several large land purchases made earlier in the bond for the Harris County Frontier Program. The Frontier Program buys land in optimal locations in developing watersheds for flood-mitigation projects, such as detention basins. Then it leases capacity back to developers.
Fourteen watersheds received less than a million dollars in spending last quarter.
Based on data obtained via FOIA Request
And four watersheds of Harris County’s 23 watersheds received less than $100,000 last quarter.
The difference in spending between the high and low watersheds last quarter was more than 500 to 1!
I need more time to dig into these numbers. Look for additional analysis in the days to come.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/22/2024
2337 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Spend-By-Year-Since-2000-Graf.png?fit=1862%2C1100&ssl=111001862adminadmin2024-01-22 21:04:372024-01-22 21:31:38HCFCD Flood-Mitigation Spending Down for Third Straight Year
One week after contractors began digging the first Northpark entry pond, you can see a broad area that has already been excavated.
Looking S toward Northpark and US59 on 1/21/24.
The decorative pond, when complete, will double as a detention basin to temporarily store extra runoff from the newly widened Northpark roadbed and US59 feeder road during heavy storms.
Stormwater will collect between the pond’s normal water level and the surface of the ground, then drain slowly at a rate (constrained by the outfall pipe) that drainage ditches can safely handle.
Stormwater from 59 feeder road as well as Northpark will flow into ponds.
Why Ponds?
Traffic heading to 59 during an evacuation must not be trapped behind a flooded intersection at the freeway. Likewise, overflowing ditches must not flood homes and businesses in the area. Hence, the need for stormwater detention capacity.
The basins/ponds will also serve as decorative attractions that welcome people to Kingwood, exactly like they do at Kingwood Drive.
Contractors will build one pond on each side Northpark. Culvert that runs under Northpark will connect the ponds and carry overflow from the south pond to north pond.
Overflow from the ponds will then drain east toward Loop 494, under the railroad tracks, and behind the businesses on the north side of Northpark.
What to Expect in Coming Weeks
In coming weeks, contractors will complete the outline of the ponds. But, for now, they will only excavate down to the water table, according to project manager Ralph De Leon. Before contractors can go lower, they need a place to pump water as they dig. That means finishing the drainage-culvert connection(s) to Ditch One first. Ditch One leads to the Kingwood Diversion Ditch and Bens Branch farther east.
So the next steps will be:
Place culvert in the easement between the north entry pond and Loop 494.
Place culvert east of the railroad tracks that will connect to Ditch One.
Connect both segments by tunneling under 494 and the UP Railroad tracks.
A satellite image clearly shows the entire route.
Here’s what it route looks like from a couple hundred feet.
Stormwater will travel from the entry ponds in the background at 59 via culvert in the easement (middle of the frame).Then, the storm sewer will go under 494 (left) and the UP tracks before turning left and going behind two storage facilities.
In the pictures above and below, note the culvert already pre-positioned.
Behind Public Storage and Duncan Donuts, the storm drains will empty into Ditch One (top middle). Photo Oct. 2023.Looking west. Water will flow through ditch toward the foreground behind Calvary Christian Fellowship (lower left).Looking opposite direction from same location. Ditch One flows toward St. Martha Catholic Church (top center).
Just before reaching St. Martha Catholic Church, the water will turn right and cross under Northpark in either Bens Branch or the Kingwood Diversion Ditch.
Building from the Ground Up
De Leon emphasized that all underground work (drainage and utilities) must be completed before any road building can begin. The underground work still entails:
Building a second CenterPoint gas line on the north side of Northpark. CenterPoint will also build two connections to the first CenterPoint gas line on the south side. The first connection will be at Russell-Palmer Road and the second near Loop 494.
Relocating Entergy power lines and transformer.
Moving fiber-optic lines from internet and telecom companies.
Relocating a water line to Parkwood Baptist Church.
Finishing tree transplantation.
Tunneling storm drains under the railroad.
All of the above require permissions, permits and inter-local agreements with the City, Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ, utilities, and UP Railroad).
Three-Day Road Closure
At some future point, after those details are worked out, Northpark will have to close for three days. Previously, the plan had been to keep at least two lanes of traffic open in both directions at all times. So this represents a change. But any closure is still months away.
The closure will happen during construction of turn lanes under the bridge that will go over the UP Railroad Tracks.
UP intends to install a one-piece, 100-foot-long section of track and concrete that spans all ten lanes of traffic. The one-piece construction will involve multiple giant cranes. It will also mean shutting down rail traffic. But the final result will be a more stable track.
However, the one-piece construction also means alternate-side road closures are no longer a viable strategy.
Ideal Conditions for Tree Transplantation
The cool, wet weather during the winter months when trees are dormant makes ideal conditions for moving them. The trees should have a much higher survival rate now than during the drought and heat, as we experienced last summer.
NWS Issues Flood Watch
Early this morning, the National Weather Service issued a flood watch for areas north of the Houston Metropolitan area. It will remain in effect through midnight tonight.
As of 2PM, NWS extended the flood watch to include Harris, Fort Bend, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, and Liberty Counties through Wednesday morning.
Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner predicts heavy rainfall toward I-10 and the coast by tonight. More rain on top of what has already fallen along with elevated creeks and streams led to issuing the flood watches.
Five of the six watersheds most in danger of flooding flow into the Lake Houston Area. And the SJRA is releasing water from Lake Conroe.
Forecast for Next 48 Hours
The ground has generally been saturated by yesterday’s rain and NWS predicts additional heavy rains today and tomorrow. The total could approach another 4.5 inches in the Lake Houston Area and even more to the north and west.
Those same areas received the highest rainfall totals yesterday on 1/22/24. Luckily, the rain has been fairly spread out until now.
Only One Stream in Region Currently Out of Banks
The San Jacinto West Fork came out of its banks at Highway 30 yesterday afternoon and is still out at noon on Tuesday, although waters have receded approximately a foot since the peak early this morning.
However, the Harris County Flood Warning system is also flashing warning signs for areas in the upper Cypress and Spring Creek Watersheds. All of those creeks are still within their banks as of noon Tuesday.
The map below shows the rainfall totals for the last 48 hours. Note how they peak in the north and west.
A gage on the Trinity River just west of Lake Livingston (not shown below) received 4.8 inches in the last 36 hours.
Lakes Conroe and Houston Both Releasing Water
Heavy rains north and west of Lake Conroe have led the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) to open the floodgates at Lake Conroe. The lake level is currently at 201.61 feet (normal 201) and the SJRA is releasing at a rate of 2665 cubic feet per second as a precaution against much larger releases later.
The City began releasing water from Lake Houston last Sunday in anticipation of this rainfall. At the noon hour on 1/23/24, Lake Houston is still slightly below normal. It is at 41.57 feet; normal is 42.4. But there’s much more headed toward the dam.
How to Monitor Flood Potential
If you live near water, monitor conditions closely.
Remember: It’s not just the rain that falls where you are at that causes flooding. Look upstream to see what’s coming at you.
We should begin to see some rises in the Lake Houston Area soon because of Lake Conroe releases and the heavy rainfall upstream on Spring and Cypress Creeks. They are the three main tributaries that govern the volume of water flowing into Lake Houston from the west.
The West Fork at US59 is still well below flood stage because of the Lake Houston release. Regardless, the river rose there almost 2 feet in the last 16 hours.
Streams Most in Danger of Flooding
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, expects the heaviest rains to shift from the north toward the south later today. Lindner said, “Rises will continue along upper Spring and upper Cypress Creeks this morning as upstream run-off moves downstream.”
“No flooding is currently expected,” continued Lindner, “but high flows in these creeks will continue today into tomorrow. This area will be particularly sensitive to additional rainfall and will need to be monitored closely.”
“Also watch the San Jacinto River basin,” said Lindner. “Due to the widespread nature of the rains, run-off is starting to work into the basin and minor flooding will be possible along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River later this week.”
Lindner says the Harris County streams most in danger of flooding include:
All but Mayde Creek flow into Lake Houston. If you are unfamiliar with the watersheds around us, here is a map.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/23/24
2338 Days since Hurricane Harvey
HCFCD Flood-Mitigation Spending Down for Third Straight Year
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) flood-mitigation spending finished down for the third year in a row last year. Spending for all four quarters totaled $243.1 million, a little more than half of its peak in 2020.
Spending for 2023 was 56% of its 20-year peak in 2020 at $433 million. Here are the exact amounts spent by HCFCD year by year since 2000.
Possible Reasons for Slowdown
HCFCD flood-mitigation spending increased each quarter last year, but the total wasn’t enough to prevent another annual decline.
HCFCD watchers have conjectured about possible reasons for the slowdown. They include:
Bond Fully Funded, But Inflation Taking Toll
Despite the slowdown, there was some very good news last year. During 2023, thanks to those HUD funds, the 2018 flood bond became fully funded.
The original bond contained approximately $5 billion in projects. But voters approved only $2.5 billion. The ambitious project list associated with the bond contained a bet that HCFCD could raise as much money from partners as it did from voters. And last year, the District did just that. Partner commitments now exceed another $2.5 billion.
Now, HCFCD must spend the money before inflation steals it away. Inflation has already reduced the purchasing power of bond funds by 15-20% in the last four years. Twenty percent of a $5 billion, is another billion that the grant writers must raise just to stay even.
Where is Money Going? Will There Be Enough to Finish All Projects?
That raises two questions, “Where is the money going?” It certainly isn’t going proportionally to all watersheds or precincts.
The four graphs and tables below show where the flood-bond money and partner money has gone since Harvey and during the last quarter.
County-wide projects include such things as planning, MAAPnext, subdivision drainage projects and preliminary planning for flood tunnels (see Z-level projects at end of list).
Note that “Since Harvey” includes a year’s worth of spending not in the flood bond. Voters passed the bond on the first anniversary of Harvey. The District spent $172 million during that year. So the actual amount of bond/partner funds spent to date should total a bit over $1.8 billion.
Q4 2023 Spending Shows Shifts in Some Spending Priorities
Compare those figures with the last quarter of 2023 to see how priorities have or haven’t changed.
By comparing this bar chart with the one immediately above, we can see that relative spending in the San Jacinto watershed has remained consistent if dismal. The county’s largest watershed ranked 14th since Harvey and 13th last quarter.
Other noteworthy observations:
Brays Bayou spending dropped to fourth place from its perennial spot atop the pyramid. Most projects in Project Brays are now completed.
Willow Creek dropped from eighth place to last.
Sims Bayou jumped from 12th place to 6th.
Spending in the Little Cypress Creek watershed jumped to first place from fifth…even outpacing county-wide spending. That may be related to engineering for several large land purchases made earlier in the bond for the Harris County Frontier Program. The Frontier Program buys land in optimal locations in developing watersheds for flood-mitigation projects, such as detention basins. Then it leases capacity back to developers.
And four watersheds of Harris County’s 23 watersheds received less than $100,000 last quarter.
The difference in spending between the high and low watersheds last quarter was more than 500 to 1!
I need more time to dig into these numbers. Look for additional analysis in the days to come.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/22/2024
2337 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
First Northpark Entry Pond Taking Shape
One week after contractors began digging the first Northpark entry pond, you can see a broad area that has already been excavated.
The decorative pond, when complete, will double as a detention basin to temporarily store extra runoff from the newly widened Northpark roadbed and US59 feeder road during heavy storms.
Stormwater will collect between the pond’s normal water level and the surface of the ground, then drain slowly at a rate (constrained by the outfall pipe) that drainage ditches can safely handle.
Why Ponds?
Traffic heading to 59 during an evacuation must not be trapped behind a flooded intersection at the freeway. Likewise, overflowing ditches must not flood homes and businesses in the area. Hence, the need for stormwater detention capacity.
The basins/ponds will also serve as decorative attractions that welcome people to Kingwood, exactly like they do at Kingwood Drive.
Contractors will build one pond on each side Northpark. Culvert that runs under Northpark will connect the ponds and carry overflow from the south pond to north pond.
Overflow from the ponds will then drain east toward Loop 494, under the railroad tracks, and behind the businesses on the north side of Northpark.
What to Expect in Coming Weeks
In coming weeks, contractors will complete the outline of the ponds. But, for now, they will only excavate down to the water table, according to project manager Ralph De Leon. Before contractors can go lower, they need a place to pump water as they dig. That means finishing the drainage-culvert connection(s) to Ditch One first. Ditch One leads to the Kingwood Diversion Ditch and Bens Branch farther east.
So the next steps will be:
A satellite image clearly shows the entire route.
Here’s what it route looks like from a couple hundred feet.
In the pictures above and below, note the culvert already pre-positioned.
Just before reaching St. Martha Catholic Church, the water will turn right and cross under Northpark in either Bens Branch or the Kingwood Diversion Ditch.
Building from the Ground Up
De Leon emphasized that all underground work (drainage and utilities) must be completed before any road building can begin. The underground work still entails:
All of the above require permissions, permits and inter-local agreements with the City, Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ, utilities, and UP Railroad).
Three-Day Road Closure
At some future point, after those details are worked out, Northpark will have to close for three days. Previously, the plan had been to keep at least two lanes of traffic open in both directions at all times. So this represents a change. But any closure is still months away.
The closure will happen during construction of turn lanes under the bridge that will go over the UP Railroad Tracks.
UP intends to install a one-piece, 100-foot-long section of track and concrete that spans all ten lanes of traffic. The one-piece construction will involve multiple giant cranes. It will also mean shutting down rail traffic. But the final result will be a more stable track.
However, the one-piece construction also means alternate-side road closures are no longer a viable strategy.
Ideal Conditions for Tree Transplantation
The cool, wet weather during the winter months when trees are dormant makes ideal conditions for moving them. The trees should have a much higher survival rate now than during the drought and heat, as we experienced last summer.
For More Information
For more information about the project including construction plans, visit the project pages of the LHRA/Tirz 10 website. Or see these posts on ReduceFlooding:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/13/24
2336 Days since Hurricane Harvey