2023 Hurricane Season Ranked 4th in Named Storms

Adapted from NOAA Post: The above-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on Nov. 30. It was characterized by record-warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, a strong El Niño, and the fourth highest number of named storms in a season.

NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite captured Hurricane Idalia approaching the western coast of Florida while Hurricane Franklin churned in the Atlantic Ocean at 5:01 p.m. EDT on August 29, 2023.  (Image credit: NOAA Satellites )

20 Named Storms, One of Which was Unnamed

The Atlantic basin saw 20 named storms in 2023. That ranks fourth for the most-named storms in a year since 1950. The unnamed-named storm was a tropical storm in January that was retroactively classified as a tropical storm.

Seven storms were hurricanes and three intensified to major hurricanes. An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. 

The Atlantic basin saw 20 named storms in 2023, ranking 4th for most-named storms in a year. Tropical cyclone names are selected by the World Meteorological Organization. (Image credit: NOAA)

Only One U.S. Landfalling Hurricane

Hurricane Idalia was the only U.S. landfalling hurricane in 2023. It made landfall as a category-3 hurricane on Aug. 30 near Keaton Beach, Florida, causing storm surge inundation of 7 to 12 feet and widespread rainfall flooding in Florida and throughout the southeast. 

Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Emerald Isle, North Carolina, on Sept. 23 causing widespread heavy rainfall, gusty winds and significant river and storm surge flooding in portions of eastern North Carolina. 

Hurricane Lee made landfall as a post-tropical cyclone in Nova Scotia, Canada, on Sept. 16. Swells generated by Lee caused dangerous surf and rip currents along the entire U.S. Atlantic coast. Strong winds with hurricane‑force gusts from Lee caused extensive power outages in Maine and in parts of Canada.

Season Fell within Predicted Range

The 2023 Atlantic seasonal activity fell within the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s predicted ranges for named storms and hurricanes in the August updated outlook.

“The Atlantic basin produced the most named storms of any El Nino influenced year in the modern record,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “The record-warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic provided a strong counterbalance to the traditional El Nino impacts.”

Eastern Pacific Also Above Normal, but Within Predicted Range

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was also above normal with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes. From Aug. 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on Oct. 25 as a category-5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest landfalling hurricane in the eastern Pacific after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin. Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Hurricane season activity for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific fell within predicted ranges.

Hazards Felt Well Inland Underscores Need for Planning

“Another active hurricane season comes to a close where hazards from the storms extended well inland from the landfall location,” said NOAA National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan, Ph.D.  “This underscores the importance of having a plan to stay safe whether you’re at the coast or inland.” 

New System Improved Intensity Predictions, Response Times

NOAA’s new Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System helped National Hurricane Center forecasters improve intensity predictions this season. NOAA’s intensity forecasts showed Hurricane Idalia as a major hurricane impacting the coast of Florida as early as Aug. 28.

This lead time gave those in threatened areas more time to prepare and respond, and there were no storm surge fatalities from Idalia despite storm surge inundation of as much as 12 feet above ground level in some areas. Further, extending the National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook product from five to seven days, this season provided emergency managers more time to prepare and stage resources before a storm.

NOAA’s Hurricane Research and Response

This season, NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew 468 mission hours to collect atmospheric data that is critical to hurricane forecasting and research, passing through the eye of a hurricane 120 times and deploying over 1,400 scientific instruments. Since 2020 through this 2023 season, NOAA’s two Lockheed WP-3D Orion have flown 40% more hurricane mission flights than the preceding four years (2016-2019). 

NOAA celebrated the first operational launch of a Black Swift drone from a NOAA WP-3D Orion to gather atmospheric data in and around Hurricane Tammy. Further, the first successful coordination of a low-flying drone (Anduril’s Altius 600), atmospheric profilers (dropsondes), and ocean profilers (bathythermographs) also launched from a NOAA WP-3D Orion.

Observations and information from these deployments are being evaluated to determine the feasibility of using the data to help with hurricane forecasting in the future. 

NOAA’s Beechcraft King Air flew 28 mission hours to collect aerial imagery used for emergency response after Hurricanes Idalia and Lee. Following Hurricane Idalia, NOAA’s National Ocean Service provided support to enable safe maritime navigation, gathering survey data for 36.8 linear nautical miles and identifying 29 potential obstructions along Florida’s coastal waterways.

NOAA also worked to identify hazards caused by capsized vessels, damaged docks and piers, parts of homes and other types of marine debris, and shared findings with Florida’s debris task force following Hurricane Idalia.  

New Use of Weather Satellites

NOAA’s geostationary and polar-orbiting weather satellites provided vital information for monitoring and forecasting the hurricanes and tropical weather that threatened our lives and property this season. Forecasters used one-minute geostationary satellite imagery to assess structure changes during the rapid intensity of storms such as Idalia, Lee and Otis. 

NOAA’s polar-orbiting satellites orbit the Earth from pole to pole 14 times a day, providing full global coverage twice daily. Throughout the hurricane season, these satellites made sophisticated and precise observations of the atmosphere, ocean and land, which were critical to developing daily and 3-5 day forecasts.

Timing for Next Year’s Forecast and Official 2023 Report

The National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Reports for 2023, including synoptic history, meteorological statistics, casualties and damages, and the post-analysis best track, will be published on the 2023 Tropical Cyclone Report site in March 2024. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, will issue its 2024 hurricane seasonal outlook in May 2024. The hurricane season officially begins on June 1. 

Adapted from NOAA Story by Bob Rehak

2290 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Pros, Cons of Strategies to Reduce Flood Damage

Last week, I published a three-part series on the root causes of flooding. Some readers immediately started leaping to solutions. But different mitigation strategies each have pros and cons. That prompted the idea for this post. Flood control experts say that there are only three things you can do with excess stormwater:

  1. Store it.
  2. Convey it.
  3. Avoid it.

Within each of these high-level strategies, a range of tactical alternatives exists. Let’s look at them and their pros and cons.

Storage

Storage alternatives include detention basins, reservoirs and levees. They can trap excess water during storms and release it slowly after the storm passes.

PROS
  1. Can be multi-use. Dry detention basins can double as parks or sports fields. Large reservoirs can supply water and recreation.
  2. Can develop new habitat for fish. Plants and other filters can improve stormwater quality.
  3. Can be a community amenity or economic feature.
  4. Easy for public to understand how they work.
CONS
  1. Requires extensive rights-of-way, which can be costly, time consuming and politically difficult
  2. Usually involves destruction of the original habitat/land cover, and sometimes even whole neighborhoods
  3. Requires constant maintenance in perpetuity
  4. Expensive and difficult to retrofit and/or repair, as we’re seeing with the Lake Houston Dam gates.
Willow Water Hole
A small part of Willow Water Hole at South Post Oak and Hwy 90. Provides recreational alternatives and water quality features, but requires constant upkeep.

Conveyance

Increasing conveyance usually involves: channel widening/modifications; concrete-lining to accelerate throughput; straightening channels to reduce travel time; or creating new, supplementary pathways such as storm tunnels.

PROS
  1. Proven to be very effective.
  2. Relatively simple concept and easy to understand.
CONS
  1. Can require extensive right-of-way acquisition and relocations of homes/businesses.
  2. Can destroy habitat along channel banks.
  3. In urban areas, modifying bridge crossings and moving utility lines adds significant expense. For instance, since 2000, we have spent approximately half a billion dollars to widen Brays Bayou and rebuild 30 bridges across it.
  4. Can move the flooding problem from one location to another.
Brays
Brays Bayou near Texas Medical Center illustrates difficulty of widening channels in urban areas.

Avoidance

The avoidance strategy involves several different strategies: building on high ground far from rivers; elevating structures; conserving floodplains; implementing better building codes and more.

PROS
  1. Prevention is always less expensive than correction and usually the least expensive option.
  2. Floodplain conservation can result in dual-use opportunities (i.e., parks/trails). From a developer’s point of view, homes near green space usually fetch higher prices.
  3. Floodplain preservation is low/no maintenance. Nature heals itself.
  4. Structure elevation can significantly reduce risk of flooding, but it’s much harder and more costly after flood damage than during original construction.
CONS
  1. New regulations/building codes can be difficult to get approved. FEMA estimates that adoption of hazard-resistant building codes saved $32 billion during the last 20 years and could save another $132 billion by 2040. But Texas hasn’t updated its building codes since 2012.
  2. Floodplain acquisition can be very expensive. And doing it before surrounding land is developed means the Benefit/Cost Ratio probably won’t qualify for federal assistance.
  3. Pier-and-beam foundations are not as popular as slab-on-grade foundation for single-family, residential development. They’re also usually more expensive.
Once intended to be a subdivision within Kingwood, the 158 acre East End Park is now one of the community’s most popular attractions. It draws approximately 100,000 visitors each year. It also buffers surrounding homes from flooding.

Finding the Best Alternative

No one answer exists for every situation. To find the optimal solution, engineers study multiple alternatives and weigh their costs against the benefits. Then comes the hard part – finding the money to build them. No one budgets for disasters. We typically deal with disasters after the fact.

Altogether, projects such as these can take a decade or more to develop. And during that time, flood risk can be a shifting target because of upstream development and revisions to rainfall probability statistics. Personally, I’m a big advocate of caution when it comes to living near water. Your best bet is to avoid flooding.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/5/2023 based on information from leading hydrologists

2289 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Northpark Expansion Presses Forward While Fighting Entergy Obstacle

In the last two weeks, progress on the Northpark expansion project has slowed somewhat but is still pressing forward. Illegally dumped oil, utility surprises, and a traffic signal have all created bumps in the road, so to speak.

But there’s also good news to report: the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority (LHRA) wired a $53,000 payment for a Union-Pacific (UP) easement to the railroad. That clears the way for construction of ground-level turn lanes near where the bridge over the UP tracks will go.

Let’s look at what’s happened in the last two weeks and what’s coming up.

Contaminated Soil Isolated

Two weeks ago while preparing to work on a detention basin on the north side of Northpark at US59, contractors encountered oil dumped years ago. That forced crews to see how far the pollution extended. They excavated a wide area and isolated contaminated dirt.

All contaminated soil was isolated with plastic sheeting before the rains last week.

Contractors are now getting ready to remove the contaminated soil to a safe site for permanent disposal where contaminants can’t leach into groundwater. While that cost time, it will make the site safer in the long run.

Looking west at area where north retention basin will be excavated.

Entergy Estimated It Would Take 50 Weeks to Move a Transformer

In other news, an Entergy consultant in The Woodlands has tried to hold the Northpark expansion project up for two years. He wanted an extra half million dollars (above and beyond the $700,000 already budgeted) to move some power lines and a transformer near the Exxon station at US59.

The consultant demanded 50 weeks to move the ground-mounted transformer alone. His motive was unclear. Was he using a not-so-subtle form of extortion to make himself look better in his client’s eyes?

It’s also unclear whether Entergy, a company that trumpets its social responsibility, knew about the consultant’s demands. Entergy is a Fortune 500 company with 3 million customers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas. 

The Northpark Expansion project is designed to create an all-weather evacuation route for 70,000 people. One would think that a socially minded company with a $4.4 billion rate base (in Texas alone) could move a transformer in less than a year if it really wanted to.

Ralph De Leon, project manager for the Northpark expansion project, finally managed to bypass the consultant and is now working directly with Entergy executives in Beaumont.

Lawyers for LHRA have negotiated a settlement in lieu of condemnation. Hopefully the Entergy issue will resolve amicably before the end of the year. The agreement will be on the December 14, LHRA board meeting agenda.

Traffic Light Alternative

At Russell-Palmer, contractors are still waiting for the City of Houston to change a pole mounted traffic signal to a wire-mounted one. That will enable them to continue installing box culverts when Centerpoint returns to finish moving its gas line. Centerpoint crews were MIA during the holidays.

Traffic signal in median at Northpark and Russell Palmer Road must be replaced with wire-mounted system for now.

Replacement of Ditch with Box Culverts

The City of Houston has approved the plan to detour a waterline across Northpark to the Parkwood Baptist Church (see upper right corner of photo above). The original contractors didn’t install the waterline deep enough. That created a conflict with the 6’x8′ box culverts being installed in the median. But the water-line detour should be resolved soon.

The culverts will replace the ditch in the median so that the road can be expanded inward, adding an extra lane of traffic in each direction.

Looking west in opposite direction from over Russell Palmer.

Plan for Next Three Weeks

Construction is always difficult, even in the best of times. The holidays make it even more so. Weather permitting, here are the priorities for the next three weeks.

  • Continue burying reinforced culvert at Outfall B depending on weather 
  • Alternatively, continue working on 8″ waterline on south side of Northpark between railroad tracks and King’s Mill
  • Install 12″ waterline in front of the Chick-Fil-A.
  • Complete filling in around new sidewalks west of US59
  • Mobilize on December 4th to begin tree relocation throughout the month of December.
  • Continued Retention Pond Excavation on north side at US59.

For More Information

For more information about the project including construction plans, visit the project pages of the LHRA/Tirz 10 website. Or see these posts on ReduceFlooding:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/3/23

2287 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.