A new study of “climate migration” by the First Street Foundation looks at how flood-risk information affects real-estate sales. It found that the availability of high-resolution data affects home buying, sometimes in surprising ways.
The foundation’s mission is to make climate-risk data accessible, easy to understand and actionable for individuals, governments, and industry. It estimates different types of climate risk from flooding to fire, wind, drought and more – from the state to the county, zip code and street-address levels.
First Street’s most recent study is called “Climate Abandonment Areas.” But most of the important findings have to do with flooding. First Street published the study in the journal Nature-Communications on December 18, 2023.
Cover photo from First Street Foundation Climate Abandonment Areas Study.No credit listed.
Key Findings
Among First Street’s key findings:
Flood risk is a house-by-house issue, not a state-by-state issue. People may still move to states with high flood risk, but increasingly they’re using flood data to avoid risky neighborhoods and properties.
In the U.S., 34.5% of the population and 41.9% of the housing stock have been impacted by flooding.
Nationally, 7.4% of census blocks are beginning to lose population because of flood risk. Within them, 3.2 million people (35.5% of the decline) moved away because of flooding between 2000 and 2020.
Dr. Jeremy Porter, Head of Climate Implications Research at First Street, said “the downstream implications of this are massive and impact property values, neighborhood composition, and commercial viability both positively and negatively.”
As people leave to avoid flood risk, property values decline, affecting cities’ tax bases. Further, the population left behind tends to be older and poorer.
The study defines 9% of the census blocks in Harris County as “Climate Abandonment Areas.” It further claims Houston has passed a tipping point where more people are moving out than in, it says, because of flood risk.
Many areas have “pull factors” such as jobs that offset the number of people leaving. But their growth would be even higher if flood risk were lower. Said another way, areas with high flood risk grow more slowly if they grow at all.
Population losses are greatest among areas that flood frequently, i.e., a 5-year flood risk.
High-resolution information about flooding progressively reduced consideration of homes with high risk by 24.6% after 9-weeks of study.
Confusing Definitions, Frames of Reference
While this purports to be a study about how “climate change” affects “climate migration,” the numerous counter-intuitive climate-change references constantly obscure the findings.
For instance, the authors start out talking about wildfires, severe storms, flooding, drought, tropical storms and winter storms. But then they talk primarily about flooding in relation to people moving a matter of city blocks.
As a consequence, it gets confusing. “It appears that they are trying to fit a trend to the climate change agenda,” said one of the leading hydrologists in Texas.
One must read carefully to determine the frame of reference for each claim.
Good News, Bad News
The good news is that First Street data shows people seem to be paying more attention to flood risk when they purchase homes – assuming that good data is available.
The bad news is that good flood-risk data is often not available. Across our region, for instance, many areas remain unstudied. And recent data often remains unreported, i.e., in Harris County.
In the meantime, developers continue to build in floodplains. And new developments often don’t yet have listed addresses. So it’s hard to for homebuyers to estimate risk – even when using First Street’s models.
The hydrologist mentioned above felt First Street overcomplicated the issue. “This isn’t about climate change; it is about common sense. People built in places they shouldn’t have built decades ago and after enough disasters, people have had enough. They are moving. Floods have happened since the dawn of time and certainly before ‘climate change.’ Common sense tells you that people move when they have been hit hard and often enough.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/19/2023
2303 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/20231219-Screenshot-2023-12-19-at-4.52.33%E2%80%AFPM.jpg?fit=1100%2C681&ssl=16811100adminadmin2023-12-19 18:36:582023-12-19 18:53:12How Flood-Risk Information Affects Real-Estate Sales
According to a December 15 press release by the Texas Water Development Board, Phase 1 of Houston’s new Northeast Water Purification Plant expansion is nearing completion. Phase 1 will supply 80 million gallons per day of treated surface water to the residents of Harris County, Fort Bend County and City of Houston.
Two more phases remain. Phase 2A will deliver another 80 million gallons per day to the same areas. Phase 2B will deliver 160. So the entire complex, when complete, will deliver another 320 million gallons a day. That’s in addition to the 80 million gallons per day the original plant delivered before expansion.
Goals of Plant
The Texas Water Development Board provided $1.9 billion for the Northeast Water Purification Plant expansion project, making it one of the largest in the country.
The plant has two goals:
Provide water for a population that increases by almost a million people per decade.
Reduce groundwater usage and subsidence.
Completion Estimated in 2025
The TWDB did not provide a date for expected completion of the next two phases, but at a May 2023 community meeting, project managers estimated a completion date in 2025.
Artist’s rendering of completed project, looking NNW. Expansion area outlined in orange.Satellite photo from May with substantially complete phase outlined in red.Phase 1 in center of plant now substantially completed. Original plant is on far right.Photographed in August 2023.Phases 2A and 2B still under construction. Photographed in August 2023.Looking south.Entire plant. Looking east across older area toward new construction. Lake Houston at top of frame.Plant’s new Intake Facility.Those twin pipelines are big enough to drive pickup trucks through.
The Luce Interbasin Transfer Project is associated with the expansion of the treatment plant. The channel from the Trinity River will ensure a steady supply of water in Lake Houston as Montgomery County’s growth demands more water from Lake Conroe.
Inflation has reduced the 2018 Flood Bond’s purchasing power. The general rate of inflation during the last five years adds up to 20%. That could potentially eliminate one fifth of the projects in the flood bond.
It’s a serious concern for the people whose mitigation projects have been put at the end of the line by the County’s Equity Prioritization Framework. Some residents may never see any benefit from their tax dollars, which are going to other areas.
Here’s how Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) will look at projects that now have an uncertain future.
Local Costs Consistent with General Rate of Inflation
In a presentation to the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force, Jesal Shah PE, the new Chief Project Delivery Officer for HCFCD, discussed the issue of inflation. Shah, a Houston native, has been in his job since May, 2023. He previously led flood-risk reduction planning, design, engineering, and construction efforts for the government of British Columbia.
Shah cited 15-20% increases in construction, material, and right-of-way acquisition costs for Harris County flood-mitigation projects.
This and other screen captures below arefrom Shah’s presentation to Flood Task Forceon 12/14/23.
Summary of 2018 Flood-Bond Funding To Date
The 2018 flood bond contained $2.5 billion in funding for approximately $5 billion worth of projects. Partnership funding, i.e., grants, were supposed to make up the difference.
And at this point, all of the partnership funding has been secured thanks to an infusion of $825 million in Community Development Block Grant funding from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Texas General Land Office (GLO).
“Anticipated”should now be removed from this slide.
That’s very good news.
63% of Bonds Sold Already
Shah says that the County has sold $1.575 billion worth of bonds to date, almost two thirds of the original $2.5 billion.
Of the two thirds, about half the money has been spent or “encumbered.” Encumbered means the money is committed to projects and difficult to move. For instance, a project may be in construction, but not yet completed.
The other half has been committed to projects, but not yet encumbered. For instance, bonds may have been sold, but the construction job may not have been awarded yet.
See below.
Securing the partner funding is huge good news. But the impact of inflation is worrisome. To help deal with that, the County is re-evaluating all projects associated with the flood bond.
How Projects are Being Re-evaluated
Shah cited three types of projects listed in the original bond. Those with:
Well defined scope and accurate estimates.
Clear scope but inaccurate estimates. For instance, the Lauder basin has almost tripled its original cost estimate.
Vague scope and unreliable estimates.
See examples below.
To complicate matters, some backstop funding from the Flood Resilience Trust is no longer available because of new “guidance” from Commissioners Court. That will eliminate $343 million in funding flexibility.
And keep this in mind. The bond program is far from complete. We could easily see another 15-20% of inflation before its over. So what to do?
Sharpening the Pencil
Shah’s team is dividing the remaining bond projects into two piles.
Those with clear scope and funding will be completed.
Those without clear scope or funding will be re-evaluated.
Shah hopes to present an updated project list to Commissioners Court sometime during the second quarter of 2024.
Shah has already taken a first pass at re-evaluating the bond’s project list. Of the 181 projects identified in the bond:
30 have already been completed or eliminated.
63 will continue moving forward.
88 (almost half) will need more funding or more clarity (i.e., more engineering studies/tighter estimates) to move forward.
The slide below shows the guiding principles for evaluating the 88 projects that need more funding or clarity.
Lack of Balance Could Jeopardize Future Bond Offerings
One possible way to mitigate the toll of inflation involves phasing projects in areas that have already received large amounts of funding so that projects in areas that received little funding could move forward.
For instance, in a project that involves multiple stormwater detention basins, one or more of the basins could be delayed until the next bond. Meanwhile, delaying that basin could free up money for a basin in a different watershed.
However, during Q&A, Shah said he has no plans to phase projects.
A lack of equitable distribution could jeopardize future bond offerings.
And many areas have received little funding from this bond.
More than a 100 to 1 difference exists between projects on the left and right.
In the future, voters who saw no benefit from the 2018 flood bond might, once again, feel victimized by bait-and-switch tactics.
Selling future bonds will require restoring faith in the fairness of government. And that will require spreading bond funds around so that everyone – in all parts of the county – sees some benefit from them. That’s my humble opinion.
When HCFCD presents its updated project list to Commissioners Court in the second quarter of 2024, it will be interesting to see whether Commissioners and the County Judge agree with it.
John Whitmire’s landslide election in the Houston Mayor’s race may send a message to them. Whitmire is a Democrat who campaigned across the aisle and received heavy Republican support.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/16/2023
2300 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/20231214-Screenshot-2023-12-14-at-6.16.06%E2%80%AFPM.jpg?fit=1100%2C704&ssl=17041100adminadmin2023-12-16 14:47:262023-12-17 10:47:10HCFCD Grappling with Inflation’s Impact on Flood-Bond Purchasing Power
How Flood-Risk Information Affects Real-Estate Sales
A new study of “climate migration” by the First Street Foundation looks at how flood-risk information affects real-estate sales. It found that the availability of high-resolution data affects home buying, sometimes in surprising ways.
The foundation’s mission is to make climate-risk data accessible, easy to understand and actionable for individuals, governments, and industry. It estimates different types of climate risk from flooding to fire, wind, drought and more – from the state to the county, zip code and street-address levels.
First Street’s most recent study is called “Climate Abandonment Areas.” But most of the important findings have to do with flooding. First Street published the study in the journal Nature-Communications on December 18, 2023.
Key Findings
Among First Street’s key findings:
Confusing Definitions, Frames of Reference
While this purports to be a study about how “climate change” affects “climate migration,” the numerous counter-intuitive climate-change references constantly obscure the findings.
For instance, the authors start out talking about wildfires, severe storms, flooding, drought, tropical storms and winter storms. But then they talk primarily about flooding in relation to people moving a matter of city blocks.
As a consequence, it gets confusing. “It appears that they are trying to fit a trend to the climate change agenda,” said one of the leading hydrologists in Texas.
One must read carefully to determine the frame of reference for each claim.
Good News, Bad News
The good news is that First Street data shows people seem to be paying more attention to flood risk when they purchase homes – assuming that good data is available.
The bad news is that good flood-risk data is often not available. Across our region, for instance, many areas remain unstudied. And recent data often remains unreported, i.e., in Harris County.
In the meantime, developers continue to build in floodplains. And new developments often don’t yet have listed addresses. So it’s hard to for homebuyers to estimate risk – even when using First Street’s models.
The hydrologist mentioned above felt First Street overcomplicated the issue. “This isn’t about climate change; it is about common sense. People built in places they shouldn’t have built decades ago and after enough disasters, people have had enough. They are moving. Floods have happened since the dawn of time and certainly before ‘climate change.’ Common sense tells you that people move when they have been hit hard and often enough.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/19/2023
2303 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Phase 1 of Northeast Water Purification Plant Expansion Nears Completion
According to a December 15 press release by the Texas Water Development Board, Phase 1 of Houston’s new Northeast Water Purification Plant expansion is nearing completion. Phase 1 will supply 80 million gallons per day of treated surface water to the residents of Harris County, Fort Bend County and City of Houston.
Two more phases remain. Phase 2A will deliver another 80 million gallons per day to the same areas. Phase 2B will deliver 160. So the entire complex, when complete, will deliver another 320 million gallons a day. That’s in addition to the 80 million gallons per day the original plant delivered before expansion.
Goals of Plant
The Texas Water Development Board provided $1.9 billion for the Northeast Water Purification Plant expansion project, making it one of the largest in the country.
The plant has two goals:
Completion Estimated in 2025
The TWDB did not provide a date for expected completion of the next two phases, but at a May 2023 community meeting, project managers estimated a completion date in 2025.
The Luce Interbasin Transfer Project is associated with the expansion of the treatment plant. The channel from the Trinity River will ensure a steady supply of water in Lake Houston as Montgomery County’s growth demands more water from Lake Conroe.
Reducing subsidence is paramount for the region. Subsidence has been linked to flooding. In fact, a whole subdivision on Galveston Bay in Baytown became uninhabitable before the State created the Harris Galveston Subsidence District.
Here’s its story.
Posted By Bob Rehak on 12/18/23
2302 Days since Hurricane Harvey
HCFCD Grappling with Inflation’s Impact on Flood-Bond Purchasing Power
Inflation has reduced the 2018 Flood Bond’s purchasing power. The general rate of inflation during the last five years adds up to 20%. That could potentially eliminate one fifth of the projects in the flood bond.
It’s a serious concern for the people whose mitigation projects have been put at the end of the line by the County’s Equity Prioritization Framework. Some residents may never see any benefit from their tax dollars, which are going to other areas.
Here’s how Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) will look at projects that now have an uncertain future.
Local Costs Consistent with General Rate of Inflation
In a presentation to the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force, Jesal Shah PE, the new Chief Project Delivery Officer for HCFCD, discussed the issue of inflation. Shah, a Houston native, has been in his job since May, 2023. He previously led flood-risk reduction planning, design, engineering, and construction efforts for the government of British Columbia.
Shah cited 15-20% increases in construction, material, and right-of-way acquisition costs for Harris County flood-mitigation projects.
Summary of 2018 Flood-Bond Funding To Date
The 2018 flood bond contained $2.5 billion in funding for approximately $5 billion worth of projects. Partnership funding, i.e., grants, were supposed to make up the difference.
And at this point, all of the partnership funding has been secured thanks to an infusion of $825 million in Community Development Block Grant funding from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Texas General Land Office (GLO).
That’s very good news.
63% of Bonds Sold Already
Shah says that the County has sold $1.575 billion worth of bonds to date, almost two thirds of the original $2.5 billion.
Of the two thirds, about half the money has been spent or “encumbered.” Encumbered means the money is committed to projects and difficult to move. For instance, a project may be in construction, but not yet completed.
The other half has been committed to projects, but not yet encumbered. For instance, bonds may have been sold, but the construction job may not have been awarded yet.
See below.
Securing the partner funding is huge good news. But the impact of inflation is worrisome. To help deal with that, the County is re-evaluating all projects associated with the flood bond.
How Projects are Being Re-evaluated
Shah cited three types of projects listed in the original bond. Those with:
See examples below.
To complicate matters, some backstop funding from the Flood Resilience Trust is no longer available because of new “guidance” from Commissioners Court. That will eliminate $343 million in funding flexibility.
And keep this in mind. The bond program is far from complete. We could easily see another 15-20% of inflation before its over. So what to do?
Sharpening the Pencil
Shah’s team is dividing the remaining bond projects into two piles.
Shah hopes to present an updated project list to Commissioners Court sometime during the second quarter of 2024.
Shah has already taken a first pass at re-evaluating the bond’s project list. Of the 181 projects identified in the bond:
The slide below shows the guiding principles for evaluating the 88 projects that need more funding or clarity.
Lack of Balance Could Jeopardize Future Bond Offerings
One possible way to mitigate the toll of inflation involves phasing projects in areas that have already received large amounts of funding so that projects in areas that received little funding could move forward.
For instance, in a project that involves multiple stormwater detention basins, one or more of the basins could be delayed until the next bond. Meanwhile, delaying that basin could free up money for a basin in a different watershed.
However, during Q&A, Shah said he has no plans to phase projects.
And many areas have received little funding from this bond.
In the future, voters who saw no benefit from the 2018 flood bond might, once again, feel victimized by bait-and-switch tactics.
Selling future bonds will require restoring faith in the fairness of government. And that will require spreading bond funds around so that everyone – in all parts of the county – sees some benefit from them. That’s my humble opinion.
When HCFCD presents its updated project list to Commissioners Court in the second quarter of 2024, it will be interesting to see whether Commissioners and the County Judge agree with it.
John Whitmire’s landslide election in the Houston Mayor’s race may send a message to them. Whitmire is a Democrat who campaigned across the aisle and received heavy Republican support.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/16/2023
2300 Days since Hurricane Harvey