According to Dr. Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the Surface Water Division at the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), January 2024 weather was much cooler and wetter than normal in the Houston area, but the same was not true across the state.
Wentzel issues monthly reports that summarize weather, rainfall (or lack thereof), and water supplies across Texas. His latest report, issued today, covers conditions from the end of December 2023 to the end of January 2024.
Key Stats
According to Wentzel, January was cooler than normal for most of Texas and wetter than normal for about half the state.
At the end of January, 23 percent of the state was in drought, down 16 percentage points since the end of December and the lowest percentage since June 2023.
Statewide, storage in our water supply reservoirs is about 73 percent of capacity, up almost four percentage points since the end of December, but still almost 10 percentage points below normal for the time of year.
Wentzel expects conditions to continue improving over the next few months. But he also says, we have a long way to go to be drought-free statewide.
Summary of key points for Jan. ’24, from TWDB video by Dr. Mark Wentzel
Houston Area Was 2 to 4 Degrees F Cooler, 150-300% Wetter Than Normal
Wentzel provided these two maps from NOAA. They show temperature and precipitation variations statewide relative to what is considered normal for January.
From a water supply perspective, reds, oranges, and yellows mean trouble on both maps. The Houston area was 2 to 4 degrees F cooler than normal and 150% to 300% wetter. However, parts of West Texas were above normal for temperature and below normal for precipitation – the opposite of SE Texas.
Overall, January temperatures were well below normal for most of the state. In fact…
January 2024 was the coldest January for Texas since 2007 and the second coldest since 1988.
Dr. Mark Wentzel, Hydrologist TWDB
Precipitation in January was above average for about half the state.
Overall, we had the wettest January since 2007 and the 10th wettest since 1895.
Dr. Mark Wentzel, Hydrologist TWDB
Even so, all of West Texas and parts of the Panhandle, Central Texas, and the lower Rio Grande Valley were drier than normal.
Drought Becomes Less Severe
Cooler and wetter conditions than average for large areas of the state led to improved drought conditions in the last month.
This Drought Monitor map shows conditions as of January 30. Twenty-three percent of the state is in drought with the tan, orange, and red colors, down 16 percentage points from the end of December.
That’s the smallest percentage of the state impacted by drought since June 2023 and the fourth consecutive month that drought has decreased.
Water Supply Up, But Still Below Normal
January also brought welcome relief to some of Texas’ water supply reservoirs. During the month of January, statewide supplies increased by almost four percentage points, the largest increase in a single month since October 2018.
Most of that increase came in the northeast quarter of the state, where most reservoirs are now back to normal for this time of year.
However, statewide, supplies are about 10 percentage points below normal for the time of year. And conditions are much worse in the south and west.
Drought Forecast Through End of April
What can we expect over the next few months? Here’s the latest seasonal drought outlook from the National Weather Service for conditions through the end of April.
NOAA’s drought predictions for entire country
El Niño conditions, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Equatorial Pacific, are in place and expected to moderate temperatures. They will also add moisture to Texas for the rest of the winter.
Unfortunately, improvements aren’t expected to be enough to reduce drought in West Texas or eliminate drought in Central and East Texas.
Looking a little farther out, May and June are typically two of the wettest months for Texas, regardless of El Niño status, giving us a chance for additional improvements before the full onset of summer, says Wentzel
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Screenshot-2024-02-14-at-2.42.36%E2%80%AFPM-e1707946162539.png?fit=1100%2C627&ssl=16271100adminadmin2024-02-14 15:36:372024-02-14 15:36:38January 2024 Weather Much Cooler, Wetter than Normal in Houston Area
Meritage Homes of Texas LLC, a company based in Scottsdale, Arizona, has begun clearing 40.2 acres between Kings River and Pinehurst of Atascocita. The company will reportedly build 210 homes there – 5.2 per acre. Although the new development is far above floodplains, wetlands cover a large part of the first phase.
Two Phases of Development
Meritage told homeowners in the area that it plans to develop the land in two phases, with the second still several years away.
The two parcels bracket Pinehurst Trail Drive. The first stretches along Kings Park Way almost to West Lake Houston Parkway (WLHP) on the west. The second stretches to the Atascocita Golf Club on the east. (See satellite image below.)
The presence of wetlands (and a gas pipeline) may indicate why this property was not developed until now.
The definition of “jurisdictional wetlands” has flip-flopped in recent years as one administration after another has tweaked the definition of “waters of the U.S.” (WOTUS). Currently, we’re dealing with Biden’s changes to Trump’s changes to Obama’s changes. It’s not simple.
The definition stretches more than 100 pages and determines what the Army Corps protects.
It’s not clear at this time whether the Army Corps has ruled whether these particular wetlands fall under their jurisdiction.
Western Parcel Being Cleared First
Photographs taken on Feb. 13, 2024, show that contractors have already cleared a significant portion of the first phase, which is on the west. See images below.
Looking ENE toward Lake Houston. This shot shows the first part of clearing adjacent to Texas Laurel Trail and Pinehurst Trail Drive.Wetlands cut through this area.Reverse angle shows full extent of clearing as of Tuesday morning, 2/13/24. Looking W toward CVS (out of sight in background) along WLHP.
Note the small channel that appears to be draining the wetland area. According to the schematic diagram below, homes, driveways and roads will eventually cover this channel and the area it drains.
Layout of Homes and Detention Basins
Plans indicate the area will have 124 30×80 foot lots and 86 40×80 lots. That’s fairly high density. And it will have a high percentage of impervious cover that generates a lot of runoff quickly. Luckily, the development will have four stormwater detention basins, according to the diagram below posted on Facebook.
A resident indicated that a deed to the property requires Meritage to maintain a buffer of at least 25-30 feet of wooded land along the property boundary. That should help retain/restrain runoff, too. See photo below.
So far, contractors seem to be leaving the required setback.
Construction Plans and Drainage Analysis to Follow
According to residents, Meritage just closed on the property in January. Given the recent sale, I do not yet have full construction plans or a drainage impact analysis. However, I have submitted a FOIA Request to Harris County Engineering and will provide them when I get them.
When I photographed the clearing activity this morning, it had silt fence around most of the perimeter (an improvement from last Sunday).
The silt fence is also an improvement over a neighboring development on WLHP by Trammell Crow.
Neighboring Development Still in Quagmire.
Harris County Engineering and Constables shut down construction at the Trammell Crow site after it flooded Kings Park Way, WLHP, and neighboring properties during heavy rains in late January.
This morning, I noticed that contractors are back at work behind tall privacy fences. However, they still lack silt fences along large parts of their property. Moreover, trenches that they dug to drain the property to a sediment pond had been blocked off to accommodate construction equipment. See below.
Trammell Crow contractors were busy this morning piling dirt over the knee-deep muckon their site from heavy rains two weeks ago.
Stormwater is the enemy of construction. That’s why most contractors implement measures to control it upfront in a project, not after the fact. Let’s pray that Meritage’s contractors protect their neighbors better.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/13/24
2359 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/20240213-Screenshot-2024-02-13-at-11.31.53%E2%80%AFAM-3.jpg?fit=1100%2C496&ssl=14961100adminadmin2024-02-13 14:56:192024-02-13 15:24:14Meritage Begins Clearing 40 Acres for 210 Homes, Many Over Wetlands
The Association of State Flood Plain Managers has an excellent, educational website called FloodRiskReduction.org. In a few pages, it explains floodplains, sources of flooding and how to understand flood risk. It also breaks down 39 flood-mitigation strategies for property owners, buyers, renters, community associations, officials, representatives, and others.
Part of the site’s magic is a search feature that helps readers zero in on strategies that might help them. It lets users filter strategies by factors such as cost, effort required, maintenance, type of real estate, foundation type, condition of structure and more. The strategies cover everything from DIY projects to those that require professionals.
Finally, the site comes with a list of resources to help implement the strategies.
Organized for Action
I love the organization of this site. Everything about it is designed to help people take action to protect themselves and their property.
“Flood risk is not static. It changes constantly due to development, erosion, land use changes, subsidence of the land, changes in rainfall patterns, sea level rise, and other factors.”
Whereas ReduceFlooding.com gives concrete examples of how such factors interact in a small area so we can mitigate the causes, FloodRiskReduction.org skips to mitigating their effects.
It focuses mainly on telling people how to protect themselves and their property from rising floodwaters. In that sense, it’s a fundamentally different, but complimentary approach.
Wide Range of Strategies
The strategies range from home elevation to waterproofing, building relocation, grading and more. Much more. There’s even a section on demolishing a structure and rebuilding it outside of the floodplain and harm’s way.
Not for the faint of heart. Home of man who elevated his home by himself to get it above neighborhood flooding.
My favorite, however, is “Flood-free site selection.” It talks about identifying flood hazards and their frequency as part of the home buying and/or homebuilding process. It focuses on avoidance as a form of mitigation.
Each of the strategies comes with a series of concrete steps you can take to reduce your flood risk.
For instance, “flood-free site selection” includes discussions of how to:
Review FEMA flood maps
Review nearby flood-protection structures such as dams
Examine historical records
Seek advice from local experts, such as floodplain managers.
Compare Options for Exploration
As you might expect from the photo above of a man who elevated his home by himself using a series of car jacks, ASFPM’s site comes with a long list of cautions and disclaimers.
Regardless, FloodRiskReduction can help educate people about their options in an afternoon. It’s a quick, simple list of thought-starters and a great way to compare options to explore.
For ease of future reference, I will post a link to the ASFPM site in the links page of ReduceFlooding.com.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/12/24
2358 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/20191012-RJR_3651.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2024-02-12 13:10:032024-02-12 13:21:00ASFPM Catalogs, Explains Flood-Mitigation Strategies: A Review
January 2024 Weather Much Cooler, Wetter than Normal in Houston Area
According to Dr. Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the Surface Water Division at the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), January 2024 weather was much cooler and wetter than normal in the Houston area, but the same was not true across the state.
Wentzel issues monthly reports that summarize weather, rainfall (or lack thereof), and water supplies across Texas. His latest report, issued today, covers conditions from the end of December 2023 to the end of January 2024.
Key Stats
According to Wentzel, January was cooler than normal for most of Texas and wetter than normal for about half the state.
At the end of January, 23 percent of the state was in drought, down 16 percentage points since the end of December and the lowest percentage since June 2023.
Statewide, storage in our water supply reservoirs is about 73 percent of capacity, up almost four percentage points since the end of December, but still almost 10 percentage points below normal for the time of year.
Wentzel expects conditions to continue improving over the next few months. But he also says, we have a long way to go to be drought-free statewide.
Houston Area Was 2 to 4 Degrees F Cooler, 150-300% Wetter Than Normal
Wentzel provided these two maps from NOAA. They show temperature and precipitation variations statewide relative to what is considered normal for January.
From a water supply perspective, reds, oranges, and yellows mean trouble on both maps. The Houston area was 2 to 4 degrees F cooler than normal and 150% to 300% wetter. However, parts of West Texas were above normal for temperature and below normal for precipitation – the opposite of SE Texas.
Overall, January temperatures were well below normal for most of the state. In fact…
Precipitation in January was above average for about half the state.
Even so, all of West Texas and parts of the Panhandle, Central Texas, and the lower Rio Grande Valley were drier than normal.
Drought Becomes Less Severe
Cooler and wetter conditions than average for large areas of the state led to improved drought conditions in the last month.
This Drought Monitor map shows conditions as of January 30. Twenty-three percent of the state is in drought with the tan, orange, and red colors, down 16 percentage points from the end of December.
That’s the smallest percentage of the state impacted by drought since June 2023 and the fourth consecutive month that drought has decreased.
Water Supply Up, But Still Below Normal
January also brought welcome relief to some of Texas’ water supply reservoirs. During the month of January, statewide supplies increased by almost four percentage points, the largest increase in a single month since October 2018.
Most of that increase came in the northeast quarter of the state, where most reservoirs are now back to normal for this time of year.
However, statewide, supplies are about 10 percentage points below normal for the time of year. And conditions are much worse in the south and west.
Drought Forecast Through End of April
What can we expect over the next few months? Here’s the latest seasonal drought outlook from the National Weather Service for conditions through the end of April.
El Niño conditions, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Equatorial Pacific, are in place and expected to moderate temperatures. They will also add moisture to Texas for the rest of the winter.
Unfortunately, improvements aren’t expected to be enough to reduce drought in West Texas or eliminate drought in Central and East Texas.
Looking a little farther out, May and June are typically two of the wettest months for Texas, regardless of El Niño status, giving us a chance for additional improvements before the full onset of summer, says Wentzel
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/14/24 based on information from Dr. Mark Wentzel – Hydrologist, TWDB
2360 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Meritage Begins Clearing 40 Acres for 210 Homes, Many Over Wetlands
Meritage Homes of Texas LLC, a company based in Scottsdale, Arizona, has begun clearing 40.2 acres between Kings River and Pinehurst of Atascocita. The company will reportedly build 210 homes there – 5.2 per acre. Although the new development is far above floodplains, wetlands cover a large part of the first phase.
Two Phases of Development
Meritage told homeowners in the area that it plans to develop the land in two phases, with the second still several years away.
The two parcels bracket Pinehurst Trail Drive. The first stretches along Kings Park Way almost to West Lake Houston Parkway (WLHP) on the west. The second stretches to the Atascocita Golf Club on the east. (See satellite image below.)
Land Not in Floodplain, But Contains Wetlands
According to FEMA, the land sits outside known floodplains. That’s good news.
However, according to USGS, portions of the property contain wetlands. That’s not good news. Homes developed over wetlands often experience a variety of problems, such as shifting foundations, doors that stick, and cracked pavement.
The presence of wetlands (and a gas pipeline) may indicate why this property was not developed until now.
The definition of “jurisdictional wetlands” has flip-flopped in recent years as one administration after another has tweaked the definition of “waters of the U.S.” (WOTUS). Currently, we’re dealing with Biden’s changes to Trump’s changes to Obama’s changes. It’s not simple.
The definition stretches more than 100 pages and determines what the Army Corps protects.
It’s not clear at this time whether the Army Corps has ruled whether these particular wetlands fall under their jurisdiction.
Western Parcel Being Cleared First
Photographs taken on Feb. 13, 2024, show that contractors have already cleared a significant portion of the first phase, which is on the west. See images below.
Note the small channel that appears to be draining the wetland area. According to the schematic diagram below, homes, driveways and roads will eventually cover this channel and the area it drains.
Layout of Homes and Detention Basins
Plans indicate the area will have 124 30×80 foot lots and 86 40×80 lots. That’s fairly high density. And it will have a high percentage of impervious cover that generates a lot of runoff quickly. Luckily, the development will have four stormwater detention basins, according to the diagram below posted on Facebook.
Harris County regulations specify a minimum requirement of .65 acre-feet of stormwater detention per acre for developments of this size. It’s not clear at this time whether the development will exceed the minimum requirement.
Tree Buffer
A resident indicated that a deed to the property requires Meritage to maintain a buffer of at least 25-30 feet of wooded land along the property boundary. That should help retain/restrain runoff, too. See photo below.
Construction Plans and Drainage Analysis to Follow
According to residents, Meritage just closed on the property in January. Given the recent sale, I do not yet have full construction plans or a drainage impact analysis. However, I have submitted a FOIA Request to Harris County Engineering and will provide them when I get them.
When I photographed the clearing activity this morning, it had silt fence around most of the perimeter (an improvement from last Sunday).
The silt fence is also an improvement over a neighboring development on WLHP by Trammell Crow.
Neighboring Development Still in Quagmire.
Harris County Engineering and Constables shut down construction at the Trammell Crow site after it flooded Kings Park Way, WLHP, and neighboring properties during heavy rains in late January.
This morning, I noticed that contractors are back at work behind tall privacy fences. However, they still lack silt fences along large parts of their property. Moreover, trenches that they dug to drain the property to a sediment pond had been blocked off to accommodate construction equipment. See below.
Stormwater is the enemy of construction. That’s why most contractors implement measures to control it upfront in a project, not after the fact. Let’s pray that Meritage’s contractors protect their neighbors better.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/13/24
2359 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
ASFPM Catalogs, Explains Flood-Mitigation Strategies: A Review
The Association of State Flood Plain Managers has an excellent, educational website called FloodRiskReduction.org. In a few pages, it explains floodplains, sources of flooding and how to understand flood risk. It also breaks down 39 flood-mitigation strategies for property owners, buyers, renters, community associations, officials, representatives, and others.
Part of the site’s magic is a search feature that helps readers zero in on strategies that might help them. It lets users filter strategies by factors such as cost, effort required, maintenance, type of real estate, foundation type, condition of structure and more. The strategies cover everything from DIY projects to those that require professionals.
Finally, the site comes with a list of resources to help implement the strategies.
Organized for Action
I love the organization of this site. Everything about it is designed to help people take action to protect themselves and their property.
Focused on Mitigating Effects, Not Causes
Whereas ReduceFlooding.com gives concrete examples of how such factors interact in a small area so we can mitigate the causes, FloodRiskReduction.org skips to mitigating their effects.
It focuses mainly on telling people how to protect themselves and their property from rising floodwaters. In that sense, it’s a fundamentally different, but complimentary approach.
Wide Range of Strategies
The strategies range from home elevation to waterproofing, building relocation, grading and more. Much more. There’s even a section on demolishing a structure and rebuilding it outside of the floodplain and harm’s way.
My favorite, however, is “Flood-free site selection.” It talks about identifying flood hazards and their frequency as part of the home buying and/or homebuilding process. It focuses on avoidance as a form of mitigation.
Each of the strategies comes with a series of concrete steps you can take to reduce your flood risk.
For instance, “flood-free site selection” includes discussions of how to:
Compare Options for Exploration
As you might expect from the photo above of a man who elevated his home by himself using a series of car jacks, ASFPM’s site comes with a long list of cautions and disclaimers.
Regardless, FloodRiskReduction can help educate people about their options in an afternoon. It’s a quick, simple list of thought-starters and a great way to compare options to explore.
For ease of future reference, I will post a link to the ASFPM site in the links page of ReduceFlooding.com.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/12/24
2358 Days since Hurricane Harvey