8/2/24 5PM – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued an advisory about Potential Tropical Cyclone 4. It affects people on the west coast of Florida for now. Since yesterday, models have come into closer alignment. There is now a higher degree of certainty that the PTC4 will track up the west coast of Florida, then cut east around Tampa and emerge into the Atlantic.
Current Status and Forecast
Land interaction with Cuba has limited strengthening of the storm today. But by 2PM Saturday, it should emerge into the eastern Gulf and intensify into a tropical storm before making landfall.
Maximum sustained winds are currently at 30 MPH, but will accelerate Saturday and Sunday.
NHC forecasts a 40-50% probability that the Florida’s western coast will see tropical storm force winds (one minute average >= 39MPH). The earliest arrival time on the southern tip of Florida is 8 AM Saturday 8/3/24.
So far, the tropical wave has not yet reached tropical storm force anywhere in the Atlantic or Caribbean. However, tropical storm watches and warnings are up for the entire western coast of Florida.
NOAA’s latest satellite imagery shows the storm centered over Cuba at 21:40 Z on 8/2/24.
PTC4’s position over Cuba as of 4:40 CDT.
Up to a Foot of Rain and 4 Feet of Storm Surge
NHC expects tropical storm conditions to follow the storm up the eastern seaboard through next Wednesday. They also warn of life-threatening storm surge (2-4 feet) and coastal flooding from Georgia to North Carolina next week. Finally, they warn of isolated river flooding.
Expect rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning.
Next Storm Name Is Debby
This storm should become “Debby.” Chris had a short life and veered into northern Mexico as Beryl was moving toward Houston.
For the time being, people in the Houston area can breathe easier. But the Atlantic hurricane season is just starting to heat up. It will peak on September 10.
8/1/24 – 7PM Update – Since posting this story earlier today, NHC has shifted its predictions even farther west and increased development chances to 40% in two cays and 70% in 7 days.
8/1/24, 9 AM – According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a well-defined tropical wave is now moving toward the Gulf. This represents a significant change from earlier predictions that took the storm east of Florida.
The system is currently producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea.
Location as of 8/1/24 at 9AM CDT
Development Chances
Development of this system should occur slowly during the next two days. Environmental conditions will soon become more conducive for development. And a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The system has a 20% chance of formation in the next 2 days and a 60% chance in the next 7.
National Hurricane Center
NHC and others have discussed this tropical wave for about a week now. In the last 2 days, shower and thunderstorm development has become better organized, but there is still no defined circulation at the surface at this time.
The wave axis should reach Cuba by early this weekend. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, land interaction will likely prevent any sort of significant development in the near term – unless a center forms either south or north of the inlands.
Likely Track
Toward this weekend it is now likely that the wave will enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, the steering patterns become highly complex.
Forecasts have a high degree of uncertainty. Different models show numerous outcomes in the eastern Gulf during the next 5-7 days.
Weak Storm Likely at This Point
Intensity forecasts are also very uncertain at this point. Most models predict a weak system. But once a defined surface center forms, intensification looks likely.
Factors Supporting Development
Lindner points to three factors supporting eventual development.
Conditions supporting intensification over the eastern Gulf of Mexico include:
Very warm sea surface temperatures
Light wind shear
Potential for dual outflow channels aloft.
Role of Dual Outflow Channels in Formation
Meteorologists frequently talk about shear and sea surface temperatures in relation to hurricane formation. But they talk less often about the importance of outflow channels. How do outflow channels support hurricane formation?
Dual outflow channels are important in hurricane formation because they can enhance the efficiency and intensity of a storm.
According to ChatGPT, they provide:
Enhanced Ventilation: This allows the hurricane to expel air more efficiently, promoting a stronger inflow at the surface.
Symmetrical Structure: With outflow in multiple directions, the hurricane maintains a more symmetrical structure.
Lower Pressure: Efficient outflow channels contribute to lowering the central pressure of the hurricane. Lower pressure at the core leads to higher wind speeds and a more powerful storm.
Sustained Intensification: Dual outflow channels can support sustained intensification by continually removing air from the upper levels, allowing the storm to draw in warm, moist air from the ocean surface.
Balanced Energy Distribution: The channels help distribute energy more evenly around the storm, preventing one side from becoming too dominant and potentially disrupting the hurricane’s structure.
Dual outflow channels thus help enhance the structural integrity, efficiency, and intensity of hurricanes.
Preparations
At this time, no one predicts that the storm will reach as far west as Houston. But last week, no one predicted that it would reach the Gulf either.
As always, your best bet is to be prepared for anything. Restock food, water and batteries used after Beryl. Recharge your backups. And monitor the NHC daily.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/1/24
2529 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Potential-Gulf-Storm.png?fit=897%2C669&ssl=1669897adminadmin2024-08-01 10:56:492024-08-01 18:47:32New Forecasts Show Latest Disturbance Now Moving Toward Gulf
Here’s how to report storm debris blocking Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) ditches and streams.
After a storm, it’s crucial to keep HCFCD channels clear of fallen trees and debris to reduce future flood risk. One tree down across a stream can catch other trees that create a log dam, backing water up into neighborhoods and streets.
If you spot any obstructions, please report them immediately.
With most power lines restored, now is the time to start the next step in the recovery process from Hurricane Beryl: clearing creeks and ditches.
In places like Kingwood, many creeks and ditches are in greenbelts. And many blockages may still be difficult to reach because of debris that has fallen on greenbelt trails.
Residents should seek out problems that could affect their homes and report them immediately.
Tree downed by Beryl over Bens Branch near Village Oaks Drivein Kingwood
Reporting Tips
HCFCD maintains more than 2000 miles of channels. So, report problems quickly; you don’t want to be at the end of that line.
Also make sure you clearly identify the location.
Many cell phones and cameras allow you to embed GPS coordinates in images if you turn the function on in settings.
Most drones also attach GPS coordinates to images.
At a minimum, use street addresses and crossroads.
I use a shareware program called PhotoGeoTag that generates a map of a problem’s location from GPS coordinates embedded in a photo like the one above. See below.
Screen Capture from PhotoGeoTag
It’s also important to identify the channel. Many locations won’t have names or street addresses. But they should have channel ID numbers at a minimum.
NHC Issues Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone 4
8/2/24 5PM – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued an advisory about Potential Tropical Cyclone 4. It affects people on the west coast of Florida for now. Since yesterday, models have come into closer alignment. There is now a higher degree of certainty that the PTC4 will track up the west coast of Florida, then cut east around Tampa and emerge into the Atlantic.
Current Status and Forecast
Land interaction with Cuba has limited strengthening of the storm today. But by 2PM Saturday, it should emerge into the eastern Gulf and intensify into a tropical storm before making landfall.
Maximum sustained winds are currently at 30 MPH, but will accelerate Saturday and Sunday.
NHC forecasts a 40-50% probability that the Florida’s western coast will see tropical storm force winds (one minute average >= 39MPH). The earliest arrival time on the southern tip of Florida is 8 AM Saturday 8/3/24.
So far, the tropical wave has not yet reached tropical storm force anywhere in the Atlantic or Caribbean. However, tropical storm watches and warnings are up for the entire western coast of Florida.
NOAA’s latest satellite imagery shows the storm centered over Cuba at 21:40 Z on 8/2/24.
Up to a Foot of Rain and 4 Feet of Storm Surge
NHC expects tropical storm conditions to follow the storm up the eastern seaboard through next Wednesday. They also warn of life-threatening storm surge (2-4 feet) and coastal flooding from Georgia to North Carolina next week. Finally, they warn of isolated river flooding.
Expect rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning.
Next Storm Name Is Debby
This storm should become “Debby.” Chris had a short life and veered into northern Mexico as Beryl was moving toward Houston.
For the time being, people in the Houston area can breathe easier. But the Atlantic hurricane season is just starting to heat up. It will peak on September 10.
Where to Find the Latest Information
Those with friends, relatives or vacation plans in the southeast can track the progress of the storm in satellite images at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php.
For the latest NHC forecasts, visit: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents.
NHC issues updates every 4 hours when a storm threatens.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/2/24 at 5:30 PM
2530 Days since Hurricane Harvey
New Forecasts Show Latest Disturbance Now Moving Toward Gulf
8/1/24 – 7PM Update – Since posting this story earlier today, NHC has shifted its predictions even farther west and increased development chances to 40% in two cays and 70% in 7 days.
8/1/24, 9 AM – According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a well-defined tropical wave is now moving toward the Gulf. This represents a significant change from earlier predictions that took the storm east of Florida.
The system is currently producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea.
Development Chances
Development of this system should occur slowly during the next two days. Environmental conditions will soon become more conducive for development. And a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
NHC and others have discussed this tropical wave for about a week now. In the last 2 days, shower and thunderstorm development has become better organized, but there is still no defined circulation at the surface at this time.
The wave axis should reach Cuba by early this weekend. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, land interaction will likely prevent any sort of significant development in the near term – unless a center forms either south or north of the inlands.
Likely Track
Toward this weekend it is now likely that the wave will enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, the steering patterns become highly complex.
Forecasts have a high degree of uncertainty. Different models show numerous outcomes in the eastern Gulf during the next 5-7 days.
Weak Storm Likely at This Point
Intensity forecasts are also very uncertain at this point. Most models predict a weak system. But once a defined surface center forms, intensification looks likely.
Factors Supporting Development
Lindner points to three factors supporting eventual development.
Conditions supporting intensification over the eastern Gulf of Mexico include:
Role of Dual Outflow Channels in Formation
Meteorologists frequently talk about shear and sea surface temperatures in relation to hurricane formation. But they talk less often about the importance of outflow channels. How do outflow channels support hurricane formation?
According to ChatGPT, they provide:
Dual outflow channels thus help enhance the structural integrity, efficiency, and intensity of hurricanes.
Preparations
At this time, no one predicts that the storm will reach as far west as Houston. But last week, no one predicted that it would reach the Gulf either.
As always, your best bet is to be prepared for anything. Restock food, water and batteries used after Beryl. Recharge your backups. And monitor the NHC daily.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/1/24
2529 Days since Hurricane Harvey
How to Report Storm Debris Blocking HCFCD Ditches, Creeks
Here’s how to report storm debris blocking Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) ditches and streams.
After a storm, it’s crucial to keep HCFCD channels clear of fallen trees and debris to reduce future flood risk. One tree down across a stream can catch other trees that create a log dam, backing water up into neighborhoods and streets.
If you spot any obstructions, please report them immediately.
The Next Step in Recovery
With most power lines restored, now is the time to start the next step in the recovery process from Hurricane Beryl: clearing creeks and ditches.
In places like Kingwood, many creeks and ditches are in greenbelts. And many blockages may still be difficult to reach because of debris that has fallen on greenbelt trails.
Residents should seek out problems that could affect their homes and report them immediately.
Reporting Tips
HCFCD maintains more than 2000 miles of channels. So, report problems quickly; you don’t want to be at the end of that line.
Also make sure you clearly identify the location.
I use a shareware program called PhotoGeoTag that generates a map of a problem’s location from GPS coordinates embedded in a photo like the one above. See below.
It’s also important to identify the channel. Many locations won’t have names or street addresses. But they should have channel ID numbers at a minimum.
Consult the Harris County Flood Education Mapping Tool for the ID number of unnamed channels or tributaries.
Now you know how to report storm debris. Over to you!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/30/2024
2527 Days since Hurricane Harvey