3/12/25 – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has announced a series of changes to 2025 hurricane forecasts. The changes affect cone graphics, risk maps, prediction periods, forecast uncertainty, and forecast frequency. Let me attempt to summarize and simplify a highly complex announcement.
Experimental Cone Graphic with Depiction of Inland Watches/Warnings
Along with its normal cone graphics, NHC will offer experimental cone graphics that feature inland watches and warnings. The new experimental graphics will now contain diagonal pink and blue lines in areas where hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect simultaneously.
The current cone graphic that only shows coastal watches and warnings will remain. But research showed that adding inland watches and warnings could help communicate wind risk for those who live away from coasts.
The new, experimental graphics take longer to produce. So, they may appear online up to 30 minutes later than the regular graphics. Here’s an example.
Blue = TS Warning, Red = Hurricane Warning, Yellow = TS Watch, Striped = Simultaneous Hurricane Watch and TS Warning
Rip-Current Risk Maps
An increase in fatalities from rip currents during the past decade prompted this innovation. NHC will compile a national rip current risk map from data provided by local National Weather Service offices. It will cover the current day, the next day, and a composite showing the highest risk for both days. However, it will not contain information on surf height.
NHC will now issue potential tropical cyclone advisories up to 72 before the anticipated arrival of a storm. That’s up from 48 hours for watches and 36 hours for warnings. The longer lead times will give people more time to prepare when there is a high risk of significant damage.
Earlier Forecasts for Hurricane Wind Radii Forecasts
Until now, NHC has issued forecasts of storm widths two days in advance. They will now provide those forecasts three days in advance.
Those same forecasts (which also include wave height), will now show the height in meters instead of feet, based on requests from the public.
The forecast wind radii are available in real-time in a geographic information system (GIS) friendly format at the following link: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/.
Error-Cone Forecasts
As storm forecasting becomes more accurate, error cones are shrinking. This year’s error cones will be 3-5% smaller than last year’s, based on a 36-hour forecast period. 96-hour cones could shrink as much as 9%.
However, this may fool some people who misunderstand what the cones mean. The cone represents the probable track of the center of a storm, not its width.
A storm’s center has an equal chance of tracking along any point within the cone. If people think the cone indicates a storm’s width, they might be lulled into a false sense of security if they are outside a smaller cone.
Frequency of Watch/Warning Updates
NHC will now issue storm watch/warning updates eight times a day instead of four whenever coastal watches or warnings are already in effect. They actually instituted this change last year. So, this is a reminder. You can check for full updates every three hours.
That’s it for the summary of NHC’s changes to 2025 hurricane forecasts. Here also are some helpful links to use throughout the upcoming hurricane season.
Where to Find NHC Information
Live Stream
NHC will livestream forecast updates simultaneously on YouTube and Facebook whenever an area of interest exists that may pose a threat to land. NHC will generally provide these updates around 10:30 AM 4:30 PM CDT.
It’s getting to be that time of year again. Early predictions from Colorado State University indicate this should be an average hurricane season based on sea surface temperatures, the El Niño cycle, and accumulated cyclone energy.
But don’t take anything for granted. The I-storm this year will be named Imelda. Remember that one! Names recycle every six years. So prepare for a rerun.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/12/25
2752 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/20250312-New-Cone-Graphic.jpg?fit=1100%2C706&ssl=17061100adminadmin2025-03-12 12:31:492025-03-12 18:18:36NHC Announces Changes to 2025 Hurricane Forecasts
3/11/25 at 5 PM and updated at 7 PM – This afternoon at 6 PM, ABC13’s Nick Natario aired a segment on the progress of Kingwood drainage projects since the passage of the 2018 flood bond.
The publication of a new interactive map by the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) sparked renewed interest in flood issues – for all the wrong reasons.
Natario (left) interviewing Rehak (right) next to Taylor Gully this afternoon.
The map marked the Woodridge Village and Taylor Gully Improvement Projects in Kingwood as “complete.”
It marked the project to add more floodgates to the Lake Houston Dam as “complete.”
Ditto for the TC Jester Detention Basin upstream on Cypress Creek – “complete.”
The Kingwood Diversion Ditch that hasn’t seen an excavator? They marked that “in progress.”
All of those assertions are false and misleading.
HCFCD may have completed parts of the projects, such as preliminary engineering reviews. But their map suggested entire projects were complete. However, in reality, absolutely no construction projects were completed to reduce flood risk on any of these projects.
In fairness, though, HCFCD did complete some maintenance projects after Harvey. And they did buy the Woodridge Village property from Perry Homes. But they have not completed any improvements to it.
Natario’s segment first aired at 4 this afternoon before I could get this post up. By the time it aired the second time at 6, HCFCD has agreed to remove the misleading information from their new map.
Suggestion for HCFCD
I talked with the flood control district this morning. They are using old databases that were not designed to do what they want to do. And so, they say, they are having translation issues with the data.
That’s fair. But please, HCFCD, work out the kinks before publishing the data. After you have proofed it, publish it then.
Don’t call a project complete because you completed a preliminary engineering study when you haven’t implemented any of the study’s recommendations.
That’s very misleading. Provide more detail and context.
People could buy homes based on your misleading information that later flood. Or the community could be denied a flood-mitigation grant because a bureaucrat a thousand miles away in Washington thinks the project is already complete.
I have invited HCFCD to publish a guest post on this issue to present their point of view. But they have not provided it yet.
Between the 4 and 6 PM airings, HCFCD removed the projects inappropriately labeled as “completed” from its map. The revised map now only shows work in progress.
HCFCD revised interactive map. All projects previously reported as “complete have been removed.
Thank you, ABC13! And thank you HCFCD.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/11/25and updated after the ABC segment aired
2751 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/20250311-DSC_1889.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2025-03-11 16:45:272025-03-12 06:12:53ABC13 Exposes Progress of Kingwood Drainage Projects
3/10/25 – In the last week, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) launched a new interactive map at the bottom of its homepage. In it, HCFCD calls many projects complete that have not even started.
The map supposedly contains the status of each project in the county along with links to more project details.
However, the information is riddled with errors. The map also contains several usability issues that place barriers between people and information.
Together, the issues show a disturbing lack of attention to detail and quality control that undermines the credibility of HCFCD.
Examples of Incorrectly Coded Projects
For instance, you may be pleased to know that the project to add more floodgates to the Lake Houston Dam is “complete.” It’s not. Ask Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger who just provided an update on the ongoing engineering of the gates.
This and all other screen captures below taken on 3/10/25. Note project status in lower right corner.
Neither are the projects complete to add stormwater-detention capacity to Woodridge Village and to improve Taylor Gully. However, the map shows them completed also.
HCFCD also marked the Kingwood Diversion Ditch Project “in progress.” It’s not.
“None of this information is true!”
– Bob Rehak
With the exception of the Woodridge project, the District has not turned one shovel of dirt on any of the projects above.
The District tabled the Woodridge project in November 2023 when it decided to seek HUD funding to complete it. Here’s how HCFCD left the site.
“Completed” Woodridge Village Detention Basin. Photo taken today, 3/10/25.
HCFCD even marked the TC Jester Detention Basins on Cypress Creek complete.
HCFCD did not respond to questions about the errors, nor did it take the error-ridden, interactive map down as of close of business today.
Usability Flaws, Too
In addition to the project-status errors, the map also contains some serious usability flaws.
For instance, clicking on the link for more information about a project sometimes takes one to a page that asks you to sign into “ArcGIS Online.”
But that requires HCFCD employee credentials.
However, take heart. If you wait several minutes, information may eventually load OFFSCREEN and ABOVE the sign-in prompt…where few would ever bother to look for it. Very clever!
A source familiar with Harris County Universal Services, the county’s IT department, attributed the bizarre performance of the map, in part, to incompetent coders and project managers with forged credentials working on H1-B visas.
That may be an even bigger problem! If you think Elon Musk rummaging through IRS data is an issue, imagine foreign nationals rummaging through your Harris County tax information. But I digress.
In the meeting, Commissioners adopted several measures to limit the financial impact to the county in case DOGE rescinds $1.1 billion of previously promised HUD disaster-relief and flood-mitigation funding.
In the same meeting, Commissioners also demanded an update from HCFCD Executive Director Tina Petersen about the status of every project. The reason: so they could make sure so-called “equity projects” were completed in low-to-moderate income areas before those in more affluent areas.
Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis said he didn’t want to wait “until all the money was gone.” He added, “I know there’s not enough money to do all the projects we talked about and everybody else knows it.”
I hope Ms. Petersen provides better information to her bosses than to the public. She just received a $90,000 raise. You could hire several proofreaders for that!
No telling how many errors are embedded in the interactive HCFCD map; I am not familiar with every project in the county. If you know of other errors in projects near you, please send me a note through the contact form on this website.
Posted Bob Rehak on 3/10/25
2750 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/20230812-RJR_2246.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2025-03-10 20:29:092025-03-10 23:38:55HCFCD Calls Projects Complete that Have Not Even Started
NHC Announces Changes to 2025 Hurricane Forecasts
3/12/25 – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has announced a series of changes to 2025 hurricane forecasts. The changes affect cone graphics, risk maps, prediction periods, forecast uncertainty, and forecast frequency. Let me attempt to summarize and simplify a highly complex announcement.
Experimental Cone Graphic with Depiction of Inland Watches/Warnings
Along with its normal cone graphics, NHC will offer experimental cone graphics that feature inland watches and warnings. The new experimental graphics will now contain diagonal pink and blue lines in areas where hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect simultaneously.
The current cone graphic that only shows coastal watches and warnings will remain. But research showed that adding inland watches and warnings could help communicate wind risk for those who live away from coasts.
The new, experimental graphics take longer to produce. So, they may appear online up to 30 minutes later than the regular graphics. Here’s an example.
Rip-Current Risk Maps
An increase in fatalities from rip currents during the past decade prompted this innovation. NHC will compile a national rip current risk map from data provided by local National Weather Service offices. It will cover the current day, the next day, and a composite showing the highest risk for both days. However, it will not contain information on surf height.
For more information on NWS surf zone forecasts, rip current risk categories, and rip current safety, visit https://www.weather.gov/safety/ripcurrent-forecasts.
Earlier Warnings for Potential Tropical Cyclones
NHC will now issue potential tropical cyclone advisories up to 72 before the anticipated arrival of a storm. That’s up from 48 hours for watches and 36 hours for warnings. The longer lead times will give people more time to prepare when there is a high risk of significant damage.
Earlier Forecasts for Hurricane Wind Radii Forecasts
Until now, NHC has issued forecasts of storm widths two days in advance. They will now provide those forecasts three days in advance.
Those same forecasts (which also include wave height), will now show the height in meters instead of feet, based on requests from the public.
The forecast wind radii are available in real-time in a geographic information system (GIS) friendly format at the following link: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/.
Error-Cone Forecasts
As storm forecasting becomes more accurate, error cones are shrinking. This year’s error cones will be 3-5% smaller than last year’s, based on a 36-hour forecast period. 96-hour cones could shrink as much as 9%.
However, this may fool some people who misunderstand what the cones mean. The cone represents the probable track of the center of a storm, not its width.
A storm’s center has an equal chance of tracking along any point within the cone. If people think the cone indicates a storm’s width, they might be lulled into a false sense of security if they are outside a smaller cone.
Frequency of Watch/Warning Updates
NHC will now issue storm watch/warning updates eight times a day instead of four whenever coastal watches or warnings are already in effect. They actually instituted this change last year. So, this is a reminder. You can check for full updates every three hours.
That’s it for the summary of NHC’s changes to 2025 hurricane forecasts. Here also are some helpful links to use throughout the upcoming hurricane season.
Where to Find NHC Information
Live Stream
NHC will livestream forecast updates simultaneously on YouTube and Facebook whenever an area of interest exists that may pose a threat to land. NHC will generally provide these updates around 10:30 AM 4:30 PM CDT.
Outreach
NHC provides outreach and education throughout the year on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.
Real-Time Updates on X
For the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean), see @NHC_Atlantic.
For storm surge reports, see @NHC_Surge.
Web
National Hurricane Center: www.hurricanes.gov or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Explanation of Tropical Weather Outlook Graphics: www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml#GTWO
National Hurricane Preparedness Week: www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.
Hurricane Season Starts June 1
It’s getting to be that time of year again. Early predictions from Colorado State University indicate this should be an average hurricane season based on sea surface temperatures, the El Niño cycle, and accumulated cyclone energy.
But don’t take anything for granted. The I-storm this year will be named Imelda. Remember that one! Names recycle every six years. So prepare for a rerun.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/12/25
2752 Days since Hurricane Harvey
ABC13 Exposes Progress of Kingwood Drainage Projects
3/11/25 at 5 PM and updated at 7 PM – This afternoon at 6 PM, ABC13’s Nick Natario aired a segment on the progress of Kingwood drainage projects since the passage of the 2018 flood bond.
The publication of a new interactive map by the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) sparked renewed interest in flood issues – for all the wrong reasons.
Map Misleads
The map showed the status of all flood-mitigation projects in the county. It also showed a lot of misleading information. Specifically, it called projects complete that were not.
HCFCD may have completed parts of the projects, such as preliminary engineering reviews. But their map suggested entire projects were complete. However, in reality, absolutely no construction projects were completed to reduce flood risk on any of these projects.
In fairness, though, HCFCD did complete some maintenance projects after Harvey. And they did buy the Woodridge Village property from Perry Homes. But they have not completed any improvements to it.
Natario’s segment first aired at 4 this afternoon before I could get this post up. By the time it aired the second time at 6, HCFCD has agreed to remove the misleading information from their new map.
Suggestion for HCFCD
I talked with the flood control district this morning. They are using old databases that were not designed to do what they want to do. And so, they say, they are having translation issues with the data.
That’s fair. But please, HCFCD, work out the kinks before publishing the data. After you have proofed it, publish it then.
Don’t call a project complete because you completed a preliminary engineering study when you haven’t implemented any of the study’s recommendations.
That’s very misleading. Provide more detail and context.
People could buy homes based on your misleading information that later flood. Or the community could be denied a flood-mitigation grant because a bureaucrat a thousand miles away in Washington thinks the project is already complete.
I have invited HCFCD to publish a guest post on this issue to present their point of view. But they have not provided it yet.
If you are concerned about flood mitigation in the Lake Houston area, here is a link to the ABC13 segment by Natario that aired at 4 PM before I could get this post up.
Between the 4 and 6 PM airings, HCFCD removed the projects inappropriately labeled as “completed” from its map. The revised map now only shows work in progress.
Thank you, ABC13! And thank you HCFCD.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/11/25 and updated after the ABC segment aired
2751 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
HCFCD Calls Projects Complete that Have Not Even Started
3/10/25 – In the last week, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) launched a new interactive map at the bottom of its homepage. In it, HCFCD calls many projects complete that have not even started.
The map supposedly contains the status of each project in the county along with links to more project details.
However, the information is riddled with errors. The map also contains several usability issues that place barriers between people and information.
Together, the issues show a disturbing lack of attention to detail and quality control that undermines the credibility of HCFCD.
Examples of Incorrectly Coded Projects
For instance, you may be pleased to know that the project to add more floodgates to the Lake Houston Dam is “complete.” It’s not. Ask Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger who just provided an update on the ongoing engineering of the gates.
Neither are the projects complete to add stormwater-detention capacity to Woodridge Village and to improve Taylor Gully. However, the map shows them completed also.
HCFCD also marked the Kingwood Diversion Ditch Project “in progress.” It’s not.
With the exception of the Woodridge project, the District has not turned one shovel of dirt on any of the projects above.
The District tabled the Woodridge project in November 2023 when it decided to seek HUD funding to complete it. Here’s how HCFCD left the site.
HCFCD even marked the TC Jester Detention Basins on Cypress Creek complete.
However, that project won’t even go out for bid until the fourth quarter of this year.
HCFCD did not respond to questions about the errors, nor did it take the error-ridden, interactive map down as of close of business today.
Usability Flaws, Too
In addition to the project-status errors, the map also contains some serious usability flaws.
For instance, clicking on the link for more information about a project sometimes takes one to a page that asks you to sign into “ArcGIS Online.”
But that requires HCFCD employee credentials.
However, take heart. If you wait several minutes, information may eventually load OFFSCREEN and ABOVE the sign-in prompt…where few would ever bother to look for it. Very clever!
A source familiar with Harris County Universal Services, the county’s IT department, attributed the bizarre performance of the map, in part, to incompetent coders and project managers with forged credentials working on H1-B visas.
That may be an even bigger problem! If you think Elon Musk rummaging through IRS data is an issue, imagine foreign nationals rummaging through your Harris County tax information. But I digress.
Why An Untested Map?
The sudden appearance of the map follows fast on the heels of the Harris County Commissioners Court meeting on February 27, 2025.
In the meeting, Commissioners adopted several measures to limit the financial impact to the county in case DOGE rescinds $1.1 billion of previously promised HUD disaster-relief and flood-mitigation funding.
In the same meeting, Commissioners also demanded an update from HCFCD Executive Director Tina Petersen about the status of every project. The reason: so they could make sure so-called “equity projects” were completed in low-to-moderate income areas before those in more affluent areas.
Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis said he didn’t want to wait “until all the money was gone.” He added, “I know there’s not enough money to do all the projects we talked about and everybody else knows it.”
I hope Ms. Petersen provides better information to her bosses than to the public. She just received a $90,000 raise. You could hire several proofreaders for that!
No telling how many errors are embedded in the interactive HCFCD map; I am not familiar with every project in the county. If you know of other errors in projects near you, please send me a note through the contact form on this website.
Posted Bob Rehak on 3/10/25
2750 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.