4/5/2025 – On 4/4/25, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced the termination of BRIC grants.
The Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) Grant Program encouraged better building practices. The grants also funded mitigation projects that reduced future flood damage.
Through its project scoring matrix, BRIC grants incentivized the adoption of building codes that strengthened infrastructure and buildings against natural disasters. The codes address issues, such as elevation above floodplains and types of foundations, that help improve safety and prevent future damage.
Photo Courtesy of Denise Faulkner
Program Linked to Building Codes that Reduced Future Damage
To maximize a project’s “score” during competitive evaluation, states had to adopt, at a minimum, the International Building Code (IBC) and International Residential Code (IRC) as published by the International Code Council (ICC). ICC updates the codes annually.
According to Alan Black, vice president of Quiddity Engineering in Houston, “BRIC applications receive 20 points (out of a possible 100) if the State has adopted the 2018 version (or later) of both IBC and IRC.”
However, Black also points out that Texas currently only mandates the 2012 codes as a minimum, even though municipalities may adopt higher standards. The 2012 code put many Texas applications at a competitive disadvantage.
Black says, “Unincorporated areas by state law are prohibited from adopting their own building codes, and as such, applications from these areas receive 0 out of 20 points.”
Positive Payback for Higher Building Codes
Regardless, encouraging adoption of higher building standards in densely populated flood-prone areas is positive.
The study found 20 times less damage in subdivisions using the newer, more stringent building codes.
Even more impressive, Blount found that not one home built to the higher standards suffered substantial damage during Harvey.
A national study published by FEMA in 2020 demonstrated the value of adopting hazard-resistant building codes. They can provide an 11-to-1 return by reducing losses and helping communities get back on their feet faster after disasters.
That’s right. Every $1 spent on mitigation in new-building-code construction saves $11 in disaster repair and recovery costs.
Black, also a former acting director of Harris County Flood Control, said that 11:1 sounded a bit high in his experience. He used a rule of thumb of 4:1 for this area.
Easily Correctable Rules May Have Doomed Entire Program
A FEMA spokesperson said, “The BRIC Program was yet another example of a wasteful and ineffective FEMA program. It was more concerned with political agendas than helping Americans affected by natural disasters.”
Noem is canceling all BRIC applications from 2020 to 2023 and clawing back any unspent money, according to her press release. It said, “Approximately $882 million of funding from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act will be returned to the U.S. Treasury or reapportioned by Congress in the next fiscal year.”
Noem said she is doing this to “return FEMA to its core mission of helping Americans recover from natural disasters.”
An analogy: It feels as if she would rather reconstruct a plane after it crashed than help land it safely.
Third-party press reports shed a bit more light. Grist reported a FEMA spokesperson as saying that FEMA “was more concerned with climate change than helping Americans affected by natural disasters.” Grist also pointed out that BRIC generally shouldered 75 percent of the cost of a given resilience project, and up to 90 percent of the cost of projects in disadvantaged communities.
Scientific American reported that “President Joe Biden ordered the program to address climate change and spend 40 percent of its grant money on projects that help communities with high rates of poverty, unemployment and environmental exposure.”
“The program’s emphasis on equity is what may have marked it for demolition,” concluded Grist.
Local Impact
The cancellation of BRIC grants will reportedly crush projects underway, but not yet completed. FEMA says it is clawing back all unspent money, even if a project has already started.
The House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure released a report yesterday detailing how much each state would be affected by the loss of BRIC funding. Texas will lose $510,667,172, second only to California.
A FEMA spreadsheet shows that Harris County and the Harris County Flood Control District had applied for 10 BRIC grants:
Forest Shadows Subdivision Flood Mitigation BRIC
Bear Creek Village Subdivision Flood Mitigation BRIC
Project Scoping for Cypress Creek Watershed Study – Harris County Flood Control District, TX
Project Scoping for Cole Creek Stormwater Detention Basin Preliminary Engineering Report “ HCFCD, TX
South Post Oak Detention Basin C547-00-00 & Channel Improvement C147-00-00 in Harris Co, TX BRIC
Little Cedar Bayou Flood Risk Reduction Project Scoping – Harris County Flood Control District, TX
Cloverleaf Area Drainage Improvements – Phase 2 – Harris County Flood Control District, TX
Cypress Trace Stormwater Detention Basin C&CB Project Scoping“ Harris County Flood Control District
It’s not immediately clear how the BRIC decision will affect the fate of those projects. FEMA may have rejected some projects previously. And some, if cancelled, may have alternative sources of funding available.
Editorial Comment
If Noem felt BRIC did not meet the Administration’s objectives, it seems she could have easily modified the program rather than killing it.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/5/25
2776 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Denise-Faulkner.jpeg?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=18991200adminadmin2025-04-05 17:44:502025-04-05 20:54:15FEMA Eliminating Important BRIC Grants
4/4/25 – A Kingwood-sized development just upstream from the I-69 Bridge over the San Jacinto West Fork is half built out and growing quickly thanks to the construction of Townsen Blvd. which began recently in Montgomery County.
The area is bounded by the Grand Parkway, Spring Creek, and the San Jacinto West Fork. It lies almost entirely within floodways and floodplains. And it’s pockmarked by wetlands. A respected hydrologist told me that further development in that area would be “like aiming a fire hose at Kingwood and Humble.”
Townsen construction will open up many thousands of acres to new development. That has the potential to increase flood risk if newly developing areas receive insufficient mitigation. And that has many people asking questions.
Location and Size
Let’s begin by looking at maps that put the area and plans for it in perspective.
Both outlined areas include approximately 13,000 acres. Kingwood on right. SH99 is yellow line running left to right across top of frame. I-69 runs N to S between red outlines.
Construction of a major new thoroughfare in the area on the left will open up thousands of remaining acres to development. It’s called Townsen Blvd and will be four divided lanes.
Construction on the first segment began recently. And Montgomery County voters will decide whether to fund the next segment in a bond election on Saturday, May 3, 2025.
The green section is a major link in bigger plans that could eventually take the road across Spring Creek to hook up with Townsen Boulevard in Humble. Right now, plans show that section terminating at Rayford Road. But what about plans beyond that? The map below from MoCo’s 2021 transportation plan shows Townsen eventually pushing through to Spring Creek.
Townsen Blvd. from 2021 MoCo transportation plan is long, dotted line running through center of frameand terminating at County line.
In 2022, I wrote about a related proposal to build a bridge across Spring Creek that would connect to Townsen Blvd. in Humble on the Harris County side of the creek.
Map shown on Page 25 of Army Corps Permit Application for the bridge across Spring Creek. Deadline for an application extension expires next year.
Construction Already Starting at North End
Recently, work on the first portion of MoCo’s Townsen Boulevard started near SH99 (Grand Parkway). Photos below show contractors have only finished small segments of the first section so far. But new subdivisions and schools are already springing up adjacent to those sections and creating a stir that has area residents buzzing. See representative photos below.
Looking S from over SH99 at clearing that will become Townsen Blvd.Reverse angle. Looking N toward SH99 at clearing for Townsen Blvd. Note new school under construction in top left.Intersecting street on left is Waterbend Cove.Looking S along another portion of Townsen Blvd.near Lexington Blvd. intersection in distance.Looking back N across Lexington toward SH99 shows one of many new neighborhoods under construction.Same approximate location, but looking 90 degrees west shows lots for sale, but not yet built on.New school will host the children of families who buy into this area.Ground level view shows how high Townsen is being built up.Raising the road will keep it passable during heavy storms. Note wetlands on far side.
Wetlands and Floodplains in Abundance
FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer Viewer shows that floodplains cover almost all of the area where the first two legs of Townsen Blvd. will be built. The map below is so busy that for reference, I had to superimpose a bright red line where Townsen will go.
Approximate location of Townsen Blvd shown in red. FEMA base layer did not have new street marked yet.Striped area = floodway. Aqua = 100-year floodplain. Brown = 500-year.
This map will likely get worse. It is based on data acquired after Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. Experts say the floodplains and floodway will expand 50-100% when FEMA updates the map with new Atlas-14 data developed after Harvey.
#1 and #2 mark intersections of Waterbed Cove and Lexington Blvd with Townsen Blvd. See photos above.
Wetlands are nature’s sponges. Paving them over increases runoff and the risk of downstream flooding. The developers seem to be constructing a series of “lakes” around which they’re building homes. Such lakes are really detention basins in disguise. But because of the old flood maps, uncertainty remains. Will they offer sufficient mitigation?
Is Bridge a Real Possibility?
Neighbors want to know more about impacts of the road. That will depend on how far south Townsen Blvd. goes and whether a bridge across Spring Creek is a real possibility.
I asked several officials what the probability of such a bridge is.
Jason Stuebe, Humble City Manager, said, “Honestly, I don’t have much information to share. The developer completed the portion of the roadway within Humble, stopped at the city limits and that’s about the last we heard from them.”
Eric Heppen, Harris County Precinct 3’s head engineer, said, “We heard a few … rumors but nothing formally. To be fair, I hear rumors about it once a year at this point. Harris County has not been contacted about it and we have at least some of the jurisdictional rights over the creek. We reminded Montgomery County recently that we cannot do a joint project with them unless they adopt current Harris County Drainage Criteria.”
More impact data to follow as I learn more details.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/4/25
2775 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Comparison-Size.jpg?fit=1100%2C567&ssl=15671100adminadmin2025-04-04 17:25:542025-05-04 12:33:51New Kingwood-Sized Development Upstream from Kingwood
4/3/2025 – Colorado State University (CSU) researchers issued their forecast for the 2025 hurricane season today for the Atlantic basin. Forecasters expect the season to be above average, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
The 30-year average is for 14.4 for named storms, 7.2 for hurricanes, and 3.2 for major hurricanes.
Landfall Location Probabilities and Other Predictions
Researchers at CSU also predicted the probabilities of major hurricanes making landfall:
Anywhere along the U.S. coastline
Along the East Coast, including the Florida Panhandle
Anywhere along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Tx.
They predict a:
51% chance for any coast (up from a 140-year average of 43%)
26% chance for the East Coast (up from a 140-year average of 21%)
33% chance for the Gulf Coast (up from a 140 year average of 27%)
They also believe Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2025 will be approximately 125 percent of their long-term averages.
Value of Long-Range Forecasts
People frequently ask CSU researchers what the value is of such long-range forecasts? Aside from people’s curiosity, they point out that it is possible to make seasonal forecasts with greater accuracy than climatology.
The models CSU uses sometimes fail, but their “hindcasts” show that their predictions correlate highly with actual storm activity. In the last 10 years, using “correlation” as a skill metric, CSU’s April forecasts have a .59 coefficient of correlation.
A correlation coefficient of 0.59 indicates a moderate to strong positive relationship between two variables.
In general, statisticians consider:
0.1 to 0.3: Weak
0.3 to 0.5: Moderate
0.5 to 0.7: Moderate to strong
0.7 to 1.0: Strong
CSU’s June forecasts have a .69 coefficient of correlation and their August forecasts rate a .84.
So, statistically speaking, they are very successful. And that’s why they are so well respected in the industry.
Chances of Texans Getting Hit
By the way, they believe that Texas residents have a 19% chance of being within 50 miles of a major hurricane landfall this season. Those chances increase to 44% for a hurricane and 70% for a named storm.
CSU looks at multiple models as well as many analog factors, such as sea surface temperatures, global winds, La Niña, El Niño, and more. Budding meteorologists can review their thinking by reading the full 41-page report here.
It’s never too early to start preparing for hurricane season. A friend contacted me today about portable electrical power packs he just purchased. He’s also buying solar panels to recharge them. The memory of power outages during Beryl still has him smarting.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/CSU-2025-Vs-Climatology-e1743720707795.png?fit=1100%2C814&ssl=18141100adminadmin2025-04-03 17:57:202025-04-03 17:57:21CSU Predicts Above Average 2025 Hurricane Season
FEMA Eliminating Important BRIC Grants
4/5/2025 – On 4/4/25, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced the termination of BRIC grants.
The Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) Grant Program encouraged better building practices. The grants also funded mitigation projects that reduced future flood damage.
Through its project scoring matrix, BRIC grants incentivized the adoption of building codes that strengthened infrastructure and buildings against natural disasters. The codes address issues, such as elevation above floodplains and types of foundations, that help improve safety and prevent future damage.
Program Linked to Building Codes that Reduced Future Damage
To maximize a project’s “score” during competitive evaluation, states had to adopt, at a minimum, the International Building Code (IBC) and International Residential Code (IRC) as published by the International Code Council (ICC). ICC updates the codes annually.
According to Alan Black, vice president of Quiddity Engineering in Houston, “BRIC applications receive 20 points (out of a possible 100) if the State has adopted the 2018 version (or later) of both IBC and IRC.”
However, Black also points out that Texas currently only mandates the 2012 codes as a minimum, even though municipalities may adopt higher standards. The 2012 code put many Texas applications at a competitive disadvantage.
Black says, “Unincorporated areas by state law are prohibited from adopting their own building codes, and as such, applications from these areas receive 0 out of 20 points.”
Positive Payback for Higher Building Codes
Regardless, encouraging adoption of higher building standards in densely populated flood-prone areas is positive.
John Blount, a former Harris County Engineer, studied how areas in Harris County that had and hadn’t adopted a 2009 building code update handled Hurricane Harvey.
Even more impressive, Blount found that not one home built to the higher standards suffered substantial damage during Harvey.
A national study published by FEMA in 2020 demonstrated the value of adopting hazard-resistant building codes. They can provide an 11-to-1 return by reducing losses and helping communities get back on their feet faster after disasters.
That’s right. Every $1 spent on mitigation in new-building-code construction saves $11 in disaster repair and recovery costs.
Black, also a former acting director of Harris County Flood Control, said that 11:1 sounded a bit high in his experience. He used a rule of thumb of 4:1 for this area.
Easily Correctable Rules May Have Doomed Entire Program
Regardless, yesterday, Kristi Noem, Secretary of Homeland Security (FEMA’s parent department), announced she was “eliminating the wasteful, politicized grant program” started during President Trump’s first term.
A FEMA spokesperson said, “The BRIC Program was yet another example of a wasteful and ineffective FEMA program. It was more concerned with political agendas than helping Americans affected by natural disasters.”
Noem is canceling all BRIC applications from 2020 to 2023 and clawing back any unspent money, according to her press release. It said, “Approximately $882 million of funding from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act will be returned to the U.S. Treasury or reapportioned by Congress in the next fiscal year.”
Noem said she is doing this to “return FEMA to its core mission of helping Americans recover from natural disasters.”
An analogy: It feels as if she would rather reconstruct a plane after it crashed than help land it safely.
Third-party press reports shed a bit more light. Grist reported a FEMA spokesperson as saying that FEMA “was more concerned with climate change than helping Americans affected by natural disasters.” Grist also pointed out that BRIC generally shouldered 75 percent of the cost of a given resilience project, and up to 90 percent of the cost of projects in disadvantaged communities.
Scientific American reported that “President Joe Biden ordered the program to address climate change and spend 40 percent of its grant money on projects that help communities with high rates of poverty, unemployment and environmental exposure.”
“The program’s emphasis on equity is what may have marked it for demolition,” concluded Grist.
Local Impact
The cancellation of BRIC grants will reportedly crush projects underway, but not yet completed. FEMA says it is clawing back all unspent money, even if a project has already started.
The House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure released a report yesterday detailing how much each state would be affected by the loss of BRIC funding. Texas will lose $510,667,172, second only to California.
A FEMA spreadsheet shows that Harris County and the Harris County Flood Control District had applied for 10 BRIC grants:
It’s not immediately clear how the BRIC decision will affect the fate of those projects. FEMA may have rejected some projects previously. And some, if cancelled, may have alternative sources of funding available.
Editorial Comment
If Noem felt BRIC did not meet the Administration’s objectives, it seems she could have easily modified the program rather than killing it.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/5/25
2776 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
New Kingwood-Sized Development Upstream from Kingwood
4/4/25 – A Kingwood-sized development just upstream from the I-69 Bridge over the San Jacinto West Fork is half built out and growing quickly thanks to the construction of Townsen Blvd. which began recently in Montgomery County.
The area is bounded by the Grand Parkway, Spring Creek, and the San Jacinto West Fork. It lies almost entirely within floodways and floodplains. And it’s pockmarked by wetlands. A respected hydrologist told me that further development in that area would be “like aiming a fire hose at Kingwood and Humble.”
Townsen construction will open up many thousands of acres to new development. That has the potential to increase flood risk if newly developing areas receive insufficient mitigation. And that has many people asking questions.
Location and Size
Let’s begin by looking at maps that put the area and plans for it in perspective.
Construction of a major new thoroughfare in the area on the left will open up thousands of remaining acres to development. It’s called Townsen Blvd and will be four divided lanes.
Construction on the first segment began recently. And Montgomery County voters will decide whether to fund the next segment in a bond election on Saturday, May 3, 2025.
The green section is a major link in bigger plans that could eventually take the road across Spring Creek to hook up with Townsen Boulevard in Humble. Right now, plans show that section terminating at Rayford Road. But what about plans beyond that? The map below from MoCo’s 2021 transportation plan shows Townsen eventually pushing through to Spring Creek.
In 2022, I wrote about a related proposal to build a bridge across Spring Creek that would connect to Townsen Blvd. in Humble on the Harris County side of the creek.
Construction Already Starting at North End
Recently, work on the first portion of MoCo’s Townsen Boulevard started near SH99 (Grand Parkway). Photos below show contractors have only finished small segments of the first section so far. But new subdivisions and schools are already springing up adjacent to those sections and creating a stir that has area residents buzzing. See representative photos below.
Wetlands and Floodplains in Abundance
FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer Viewer shows that floodplains cover almost all of the area where the first two legs of Townsen Blvd. will be built. The map below is so busy that for reference, I had to superimpose a bright red line where Townsen will go.
This map will likely get worse. It is based on data acquired after Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. Experts say the floodplains and floodway will expand 50-100% when FEMA updates the map with new Atlas-14 data developed after Harvey.
But the quantity of wetlands in this area represent an even bigger problem. See the map below from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory.
Wetlands are nature’s sponges. Paving them over increases runoff and the risk of downstream flooding. The developers seem to be constructing a series of “lakes” around which they’re building homes. Such lakes are really detention basins in disguise. But because of the old flood maps, uncertainty remains. Will they offer sufficient mitigation?
Is Bridge a Real Possibility?
Neighbors want to know more about impacts of the road. That will depend on how far south Townsen Blvd. goes and whether a bridge across Spring Creek is a real possibility.
I asked several officials what the probability of such a bridge is.
Jason Stuebe, Humble City Manager, said, “Honestly, I don’t have much information to share. The developer completed the portion of the roadway within Humble, stopped at the city limits and that’s about the last we heard from them.”
Eric Heppen, Harris County Precinct 3’s head engineer, said, “We heard a few … rumors but nothing formally. To be fair, I hear rumors about it once a year at this point. Harris County has not been contacted about it and we have at least some of the jurisdictional rights over the creek. We reminded Montgomery County recently that we cannot do a joint project with them unless they adopt current Harris County Drainage Criteria.”
More impact data to follow as I learn more details.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/4/25
2775 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
CSU Predicts Above Average 2025 Hurricane Season
4/3/2025 – Colorado State University (CSU) researchers issued their forecast for the 2025 hurricane season today for the Atlantic basin. Forecasters expect the season to be above average, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
The 30-year average is for 14.4 for named storms, 7.2 for hurricanes, and 3.2 for major hurricanes.
Landfall Location Probabilities and Other Predictions
Researchers at CSU also predicted the probabilities of major hurricanes making landfall:
They predict a:
They also believe Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2025 will be approximately 125 percent of their long-term averages.
Value of Long-Range Forecasts
People frequently ask CSU researchers what the value is of such long-range forecasts? Aside from people’s curiosity, they point out that it is possible to make seasonal forecasts with greater accuracy than climatology.
Accuracy of Long-Range Predictions
The models CSU uses sometimes fail, but their “hindcasts” show that their predictions correlate highly with actual storm activity. In the last 10 years, using “correlation” as a skill metric, CSU’s April forecasts have a .59 coefficient of correlation.
A correlation coefficient of 0.59 indicates a moderate to strong positive relationship between two variables.
In general, statisticians consider:
CSU’s June forecasts have a .69 coefficient of correlation and their August forecasts rate a .84.
So, statistically speaking, they are very successful. And that’s why they are so well respected in the industry.
Chances of Texans Getting Hit
By the way, they believe that Texas residents have a 19% chance of being within 50 miles of a major hurricane landfall this season. Those chances increase to 44% for a hurricane and 70% for a named storm.
CSU looks at multiple models as well as many analog factors, such as sea surface temperatures, global winds, La Niña, El Niño, and more. Budding meteorologists can review their thinking by reading the full 41-page report here.
It’s never too early to start preparing for hurricane season. A friend contacted me today about portable electrical power packs he just purchased. He’s also buying solar panels to recharge them. The memory of power outages during Beryl still has him smarting.
To help get ready for hurricane season, see the Preparedness Tab on my Links Page.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/3/2025
2774 Days since Hurricane Harvey