2/8/26 – The Northpark Drive Expansion Project has several new developments this month to report.
Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority will consider a motion this Thursday to begin engineering work on a linear stormwater detention basin.
Contractors will soon begin to clear out the ditch behind the businesses on the north side of Northpark.
Paving near the intersection of Northpark and US59 has been completed. Traffic should have returned to normal by Monday February 9, 2026, morning rush hour.
All parties met with UnionPacific Railroad (UPRR) to work out details of a plan to create surface roads across their tracks in preparation for bridge construction.
Drainage connections across Northpark are also being scheduled in preparation for bridge construction.
For more details on each, see below.
Stormwater Detention Basin
Last year, Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ10 announced plans to build additional detention basin capability along the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. It would relieve some of the pressure on both the Kingwood Diversion Ditch itself as well as Bens Branch.
The Diversion Ditch splits off Bens Branch just south of the new St. Martha Catholic Church on Woodridge Parkway. The portion of the Northpark Drive Project east of the Diversion Ditch (not yet started) will require the extra stormwater detention capacity. But accelerating the project will provide additional flood protection for Kingwood residents now.
Area of investigation fordetention along Diversion Ditch
It appears that engineers will explore linear detention down to the first bend in the Diversion Ditch. It also appears they will consider expanding the ditch to the east.
The big wooded area marked “Detention Basin” north of Northpark will not be clearcut, according to TIRZ Project Manager Ralph De Leon. He says much of the area is already below the level of the Diversion Ditch. Engineers are looking at the concept of vertical detention. He said the giant trees can suck water up into their trunks and release it gradually. Plus, the friction they provide against stormwater will slow it down. It’s a green solution.
Looking south at Diversion Ditch and area for planned detention. St. Martha behind camera position. Northpark crosses l to r through middle of frame.
De Leon also says that contractors will soon begin clearing out the first 900 feet of Ditch One. That’s the ditch that runs behind Public Storage and Dunkin’ Donuts. Ditch One supplements the drainage capacity running down the middle of Northpark from the entry ponds at 59.
Route of Ditch One from Entry Ponds to Diversion Ditch (center) and Bens Branch (r).Initial area of focus.Looking W toward Public Storage. Ditch severely needs cleaning out to restore capacity.
“The ditch cross section will be regraded. And hydro mulching will be put down as needed to prevent erosion,” De Leon says. “When complete, this will look like a typical grass-lined ditch.”
Intersection of Northpark and US59
Freezing weather caused the delay of new concrete for small area at Northpark and US59. However, contractors completed it last weekend. Traffic was reportedly restored by Sunday night at 10PM. The new paving will let two lanes of traffic turn right simultaneously from northbound 59. That should eliminate some long delays for inbound commuters.
Looking W at Northpark from over 59. Photo taken before new paving. Repaving the area in the right foreground will let two lanes of traffic turn right from northbound 59 (bottom right).
UPRR Meeting on Signals, Feeder-Road Crossings
The UnionPacific signal crews finally met with De Leon, contractors, the City, Montgomery County, TXDoT, project engineers and consultants last week on Tuesday.
“The goal was to introduce the separate crews to each other so we can better coordinate our collective efforts.”
Ralph De Leon, Project Manager
Contractors should start dirt work on all four quadrants of both feeder roads – east and west of the rail tracks – this week. For safety reasons, multiple crews will have to be sequenced instead of having them all work simultaneously in the small area.
The UPRR Signal Crew will reach Northpark this week. They will first relocate the existing power supply and traffic control signal box.
Harper Brothers Construction will then build both feeder roads “over the tracks” with the exception of 4 feet next to the tracks.
Then a separate UPRR crew will use that space to make final connections to the rails.
Altogether, it should take UPRR about 2 weeks to remove existing signals, then install temporary and permanent signals.
Once all that is done, Third Coast, a TIRZ contractor, will install temporary traffic signals at 494. That should take about two weeks.
“To do all this safely takes time,” says De Leon. He expects traffic to move permanently to the new feeder roads by late May or early June 2026.
At that point, they can begin building the bridge in earnest
Cross-Northpark Drainage Connections
De Leon also says work will begin soon on two cross-Northpark drainage connections near Loop 494. One will connect the area by the dry cleaner on the SW corner with the Shell station on the NW corner. Another connection will be on the east side of 494 in the general area of the planned bridge.
Rather than close Northpark traffic again, a decision was made to defer the installation until the center/existing roadway crossing at the rail tracks was permanently abandoned, i.e., until after the new surface roads are built.
2/7/26 – According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, the county has had at least 31 100-year floods in the previous 100 years. That’s between 1925 and 2025. “How can that be?” you ask. “Doesn’t a 100-year flood only happen once in a 100-years?”
Short answer, NO. To increase your safety and protect your home, read on.
Main Reasons for Apparent Contradiction
Numerous reasons exist for the apparent contradiction in the headline. They fall into three broad categories.
Widespread misunderstanding of the definition of a “100-year flood”: the term means different things to hydrologists and to the public.
Physical changes to floodplains and channels since the last flood-map update: Upstream development, sedimentation, lack of maintenance, etc. can all increase your flood risk.
Evolving statistical estimates of floodplains: Reliable weather records only go back about 130 years in this region. Predicting future risk using such a small statistical base has inherent risks of its own.
Widespread Misunderstanding of Definition
Let’s address misunderstanding of the definition first. The term “100-year flood” emerged in the early part of the 1900s to describe a flood that has a 1% chance of happeningeach year at any given geographic point.
So, technically, 100-year floods could occur in back-to-back-to-back years. And they have. See Lindner’s list of Harris County’s 31 “100-year floods” below.
5/31/29: Buffalo Bayou
12/9/35: Buffalo Bayou
10/9/49: Cypress Creek
9/11/61: Sims Bayou
6/20/73: Sims Bayou
6/11/75: Sims Bayou
7/25/79: Clear Creek, Armand Bayou, Sims Bayou, Vince Bayou
9/20/79: Clear Creek, Sims Bayou
5/3/81: Vince Bayou
8/18/83: Sims Bayou, Vince Bayou, Halls Bayou
9/19/83: Sims Bayou
6/26/89: Greens Bayou
8/1/89: Sims Bayou
10/18/94: Clear Creek, Sims Bayou, San Jacinto River, Spring Creek, Little Cypress Creek, Cedar Bayou
10/18/98: South Mayde Creek, Bear Creek, Spring Creek, Little Cypress Creek
11/14/98: Little Cypress Creek, Spring Creek
6/5/01: Clear Creek, Vince Bayou
6/9/01: Clear Creek, Armand Bayou, Brays Bayou, White Oak Bayou, Hunting Bayou, Vince Bayou, Little Cypress Creek, Willow Creek, Carpenters Bayou, Greens Bayou, Halls Bayou, Buffalo Bayou
10/29/02: White Oak Bayou
8/16/07: Vince Bayou
9/13/08: Vince Bayou, Bear Creek, South Mayde Creek
4/28/09: Bear Creek, South Mayde Creek, Buffalo Bayou
7/12/12: Little Cypress Creek
5/13/15: Armand Bayou
5/26/15: Keegans Bayou, White Oak Bayou, Buffalo Bayou
10/31/15: Cedar Bayou
4/18/16: Keegans Bayou, Spring Creek, Little Cypress Creek, South Mayde Creek, Bear Creek, Horsepen Creek
5/27/16: Spring Creek, Little Cypress Creek
8/27/17: Nearly every watershed
9/19/19: San Jacinto River, Cedar Bayou
5/2/24: San Jacinto River
Many of these watersheds have seen 5 to 10 extreme floods in the last 100-years.
“100-Year Flood” is an estimate of probability and not a guarantee of frequency.
Keep that in mind if you’re shopping for a new home or considering cancelling your flood insurance.
Physical Changes to Floodplains/Channels
The other thing to keep in mind is that floodplains constantly change. You could be high above them one year and far below the next because of changes to the terrain upstream.
I once owned a home in Dallas that went from 2 feet above a 100-year floodplain to 10 feet below it in less than three years. How? One insufficiently mitigated, new development upstream. Think it can’t happen here? Look at Colony Ridge in the East Fork Watershed. It didn’t exist 15 years ago and is now 50% larger than Manhattan.
When buying a home, consider such factors as:
Subsidence from excessive groundwater withdrawals in Montgomery County (MoCo) could reduce a home’s elevation relative to the Lake Houston Dam. That would reduce the safety margin between your slab and floodwaters.
Sedimentation could reduce the conveyance of a channel or massively block it. During Harvey, sand washing downstream reduced conveyance of the West Fork by 90%, according to the Army Corps.
Much of that sand came from sand mines in MoCo. Mines have deforested 20 square miles in a 20-mile length of the river between I-45 and I-69. That exposes a swath of sediment averaging a mile wide to floodwaters.
MoCo actually gives tax breaks to those mines that encourage deforestation, rapid sedimentation and downstream flooding.
Until recently, the state didn’t require minimum setbacks from the river for mines. Because of erosion, the river now runs through mines in at least six places on the West Fork.
Complicating that, MoCo has not enforced its own floodplain regulations. I have published dozens of stories about that, including the blatant transgressions that flooded 600 homes in 2019 along Taylor Gully across the county line from Perry Homes’ Woodridge Village development.
When most of the region adopted new drainage and floodplain regulations shortly after Harvey in 2017, MoCo took until late 2025. And their new regs didn’t meet the minimum standards adopted elsewhere.
Climate change aside, such factors as those above make estimating flood risk a shifting target. Worse, the small statistical base for those estimates gives them a large margin of error.
Complete rainfall records for Harris and Montgomery Counties only go back to the early 1890s. So, we’re trying to estimate 100-year rainfalls by looking at one complete 100-year cycle out of 4.56 billion years. That’s as difficult as predicting a statewide election outcome by interviewing one person!
As a result, scientists update rainfall estimates after most major storms such as Harvey and Allison. But that can take years. FEMA is just now releasing new flood maps based on high-water marks and elevation data acquired after Harvey. And MoCo’s population has grown by about a third since then – enough to skew results significantly.
As upstream counties pursue growth, downstream counties must require higher elevations in building codes. But that won’t help already-built homes in older neighborhoods. To help those residents, we must pursue expensive flood mitigation to offset the increased flood peaks resulting from upstream growth.
There’s just no option; it will never end. We can never give up trying to offset competing interests. Or we’re sunk.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/7/2026
3084 Days since Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/image.png?fit=868%2C686&ssl=1686868adminadmin2026-02-07 20:19:222026-02-08 07:53:32Why Harris County Had 31 100-Year Floods in 100 Years
2/6/26 – The project to add more gates to the Lake Houston Dam has reached the 30% design benchmark, according to Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger. The 30% milestone is widely regarded among engineers as the point where the design becomes real enough that you can start working out the final details, including costs, geotechnical work, and permitting.
Eastern portion of Lake Houston Dam/Spillway where gates would go.
Flickinger added that the design team is already engaging with regulatory agencies, including the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE-Galveston), and Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD), to discuss project details and streamline permitting review schedules.
Significance of 30% Benchmark
The 30% completion benchmark is a widely recognized milestone in engineering and infrastructure project development. It marks the transition from conceptual planning into a sufficiently defined design that supports credible cost, schedule, and constructability judgments.
Decision-makers quote it because it is the earliest point at which a project begins to behave like a real, executable asset rather than a rough idea.
While definitions vary slightly by agency, 30% usually falls at the end of preliminary engineering (PE) or schematic design.
Typical deliverables include:
Horizontal and vertical alignments
Right-of-way footprint
Identification of utility conflicts
Substantial completion of hydrology and hydraulics models
Definition of drainage pathways
Identification of jurisdictional constraints (e.g., wetlands)
Likely permitting strategy
Elimination of potential fatal flaws
Engineer’s opinion of probable costs (much tighter than possible before 30%)
In this case, according to one engineer who previously worked on the project, they would also include pre- and post inundation maps and identification of the extent of areas benefitted.
First Defensible Go/No-Go Decision Gate
Why does the 30% point get quoted so often? According to ChatGPT, it’s the first defensible “go/no go” gate. Before 30%, optimism drives a project. At 30%, physics drive it.
At the 30% point, uncomfortable truths surface and cost escalation becomes visible.
Uncertainty gives way to measurable reality
Optimism encounters hydrology, soil, and gravity
Financial exposure becomes calculable
Scope reality emerges
In professional terms, it is the first point of engineering credibility. Before 30%, you deal with selection risk (Do we have the right idea?). After 30%, project managers deal with execution risk. For instance:
Will regulators approve it?
Will available funding meet Benefit/Cost requirements?
How will it affect downstream residents?
Will it meet needs outlined in the SJRA’s Joint Reservoir Operations Study, which is still incomplete.
How will construction of new gates dovetail with dam repairs?
Flickinger Already Met with Mayor About Next Steps
The City still hasn’t released details of its 30% plans for the gates.
However, City Council Member Fred Flickinger said, “Now we know how much more money we need to find to get this project done.” He has already talked to the Mayor’s staff about going to Austin to get it.
There’s still a long way to go. But we have reached a significant milestone and, according to Flickinger, all energies are headed in the right direction.
Northpark Drive Expansion Project News: Stormwater Detention, UPRR Crossing and More
2/8/26 – The Northpark Drive Expansion Project has several new developments this month to report.
For more details on each, see below.
Stormwater Detention Basin
Last year, Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ10 announced plans to build additional detention basin capability along the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. It would relieve some of the pressure on both the Kingwood Diversion Ditch itself as well as Bens Branch.
The Diversion Ditch splits off Bens Branch just south of the new St. Martha Catholic Church on Woodridge Parkway. The portion of the Northpark Drive Project east of the Diversion Ditch (not yet started) will require the extra stormwater detention capacity. But accelerating the project will provide additional flood protection for Kingwood residents now.
This map from the 2/12/26 Board Packet shows where the project will go.
It appears that engineers will explore linear detention down to the first bend in the Diversion Ditch. It also appears they will consider expanding the ditch to the east.
The big wooded area marked “Detention Basin” north of Northpark will not be clearcut, according to TIRZ Project Manager Ralph De Leon. He says much of the area is already below the level of the Diversion Ditch. Engineers are looking at the concept of vertical detention. He said the giant trees can suck water up into their trunks and release it gradually. Plus, the friction they provide against stormwater will slow it down. It’s a green solution.
To learn more about the proposal, see these pages extracted from the board packet. The meeting will take place at 8AM on Thursday morning at the Kingwood Community Center for those who have public comments.
Ditch-One Clean Out
De Leon also says that contractors will soon begin clearing out the first 900 feet of Ditch One. That’s the ditch that runs behind Public Storage and Dunkin’ Donuts. Ditch One supplements the drainage capacity running down the middle of Northpark from the entry ponds at 59.
“The ditch cross section will be regraded. And hydro mulching will be put down as needed to prevent erosion,” De Leon says. “When complete, this will look like a typical grass-lined ditch.”
Intersection of Northpark and US59
Freezing weather caused the delay of new concrete for small area at Northpark and US59. However, contractors completed it last weekend. Traffic was reportedly restored by Sunday night at 10PM. The new paving will let two lanes of traffic turn right simultaneously from northbound 59. That should eliminate some long delays for inbound commuters.
UPRR Meeting on Signals, Feeder-Road Crossings
The UnionPacific signal crews finally met with De Leon, contractors, the City, Montgomery County, TXDoT, project engineers and consultants last week on Tuesday.
Contractors should start dirt work on all four quadrants of both feeder roads – east and west of the rail tracks – this week. For safety reasons, multiple crews will have to be sequenced instead of having them all work simultaneously in the small area.
The UPRR Signal Crew will reach Northpark this week. They will first relocate the existing power supply and traffic control signal box.
Harper Brothers Construction will then build both feeder roads “over the tracks” with the exception of 4 feet next to the tracks.
Then a separate UPRR crew will use that space to make final connections to the rails.
Altogether, it should take UPRR about 2 weeks to remove existing signals, then install temporary and permanent signals.
Once all that is done, Third Coast, a TIRZ contractor, will install temporary traffic signals at 494. That should take about two weeks.
“To do all this safely takes time,” says De Leon. He expects traffic to move permanently to the new feeder roads by late May or early June 2026.
At that point, they can begin building the bridge in earnest
Cross-Northpark Drainage Connections
De Leon also says work will begin soon on two cross-Northpark drainage connections near Loop 494. One will connect the area by the dry cleaner on the SW corner with the Shell station on the NW corner. Another connection will be on the east side of 494 in the general area of the planned bridge.
Rather than close Northpark traffic again, a decision was made to defer the installation until the center/existing roadway crossing at the rail tracks was permanently abandoned, i.e., until after the new surface roads are built.
For More Information
For more specifics, consult this three-week look-ahead schedule posted on 2/5/26 or visit the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority website.
When complete, Kingwood will have it’s first all-weather evacuation route.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/8/2026
3085 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Why Harris County Had 31 100-Year Floods in 100 Years
2/7/26 – According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, the county has had at least 31 100-year floods in the previous 100 years. That’s between 1925 and 2025. “How can that be?” you ask. “Doesn’t a 100-year flood only happen once in a 100-years?”
Short answer, NO. To increase your safety and protect your home, read on.
Main Reasons for Apparent Contradiction
Numerous reasons exist for the apparent contradiction in the headline. They fall into three broad categories.
Widespread Misunderstanding of Definition
Let’s address misunderstanding of the definition first. The term “100-year flood” emerged in the early part of the 1900s to describe a flood that has a 1% chance of happening each year at any given geographic point.
So, technically, 100-year floods could occur in back-to-back-to-back years. And they have. See Lindner’s list of Harris County’s 31 “100-year floods” below.
Many of these watersheds have seen 5 to 10 extreme floods in the last 100-years.
Keep that in mind if you’re shopping for a new home or considering cancelling your flood insurance.
Physical Changes to Floodplains/Channels
The other thing to keep in mind is that floodplains constantly change. You could be high above them one year and far below the next because of changes to the terrain upstream.
I once owned a home in Dallas that went from 2 feet above a 100-year floodplain to 10 feet below it in less than three years. How? One insufficiently mitigated, new development upstream. Think it can’t happen here? Look at Colony Ridge in the East Fork Watershed. It didn’t exist 15 years ago and is now 50% larger than Manhattan.
When buying a home, consider such factors as:
Evolving Statistical Estimates/Building Codes
Climate change aside, such factors as those above make estimating flood risk a shifting target. Worse, the small statistical base for those estimates gives them a large margin of error.
Complete rainfall records for Harris and Montgomery Counties only go back to the early 1890s. So, we’re trying to estimate 100-year rainfalls by looking at one complete 100-year cycle out of 4.56 billion years. That’s as difficult as predicting a statewide election outcome by interviewing one person!
As a result, scientists update rainfall estimates after most major storms such as Harvey and Allison. But that can take years. FEMA is just now releasing new flood maps based on high-water marks and elevation data acquired after Harvey. And MoCo’s population has grown by about a third since then – enough to skew results significantly.
As upstream counties pursue growth, downstream counties must require higher elevations in building codes. But that won’t help already-built homes in older neighborhoods. To help those residents, we must pursue expensive flood mitigation to offset the increased flood peaks resulting from upstream growth.
There’s just no option; it will never end. We can never give up trying to offset competing interests. Or we’re sunk.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/7/2026
3084 Days since Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Lake Houston Gates Project Reaches 30% Design Benchmark
2/6/26 – The project to add more gates to the Lake Houston Dam has reached the 30% design benchmark, according to Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger. The 30% milestone is widely regarded among engineers as the point where the design becomes real enough that you can start working out the final details, including costs, geotechnical work, and permitting.
The plan calls for adding 11 new tainter gates to the eastern, earthen portion of the dam. They could release 78,000 cubic feet per second – as much as Lake Conroe released at the peak of Hurricane Harvey.
Flickinger added that the design team is already engaging with regulatory agencies, including the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE-Galveston), and Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD), to discuss project details and streamline permitting review schedules.
Significance of 30% Benchmark
The 30% completion benchmark is a widely recognized milestone in engineering and infrastructure project development. It marks the transition from conceptual planning into a sufficiently defined design that supports credible cost, schedule, and constructability judgments.
Decision-makers quote it because it is the earliest point at which a project begins to behave like a real, executable asset rather than a rough idea.
While definitions vary slightly by agency, 30% usually falls at the end of preliminary engineering (PE) or schematic design.
Typical deliverables include:
In this case, according to one engineer who previously worked on the project, they would also include pre- and post inundation maps and identification of the extent of areas benefitted.
First Defensible Go/No-Go Decision Gate
Why does the 30% point get quoted so often? According to ChatGPT, it’s the first defensible “go/no go” gate. Before 30%, optimism drives a project. At 30%, physics drive it.
At the 30% point, uncomfortable truths surface and cost escalation becomes visible.
In professional terms, it is the first point of engineering credibility. Before 30%, you deal with selection risk (Do we have the right idea?). After 30%, project managers deal with execution risk. For instance:
Flickinger Already Met with Mayor About Next Steps
The City still hasn’t released details of its 30% plans for the gates.
However, City Council Member Fred Flickinger said, “Now we know how much more money we need to find to get this project done.” He has already talked to the Mayor’s staff about going to Austin to get it.
There’s still a long way to go. But we have reached a significant milestone and, according to Flickinger, all energies are headed in the right direction.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/6/26
3083 Days since Hurricane Harvey