5/27/26 – Based on sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), weather forecasters are already talking about the possibility of an early season tropical storm in the Gulf.NOAA’s SST Anomalies page shows that as of yesterday, Gulf water temps were already well above normal and near record highs set in 2024.
Such SSTs help form tropical systems by warming the air and making it rise. Hurricane forecasters note that a significant lack of hurricane activity in 2025 left the region with an abundance of hot water that was not “churned up” or cooled by major storms.
Although NOAA predicts a below-normal Atlantic season with eight to 14 named storms, the near-record heat in the Gulf—averaging 2.5 degrees warmer than normal—remains a significant “wild card” for storm intensity.
Conflicting Trends
The other major factor influencing tropical forecasts this year is the growing El Niño.
El Niño tends to suppress tropical storm formation in the Atlantic by creating wind sheer that tears apart tropical storms before they intensify.
Matthew Rosencrans of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center told USA Today that El Niño has the biggest impacts on Atlantic hurricanes that form deep in the tropics. But in the Gulf, there may be more favorable pockets for storms to form.
Three of the four storms above happened during El Niño years.
1983 was a major El Niño year – one of the strongest of the 20th century. Forecasters considered it unprecedented at the time.
1972 was one of the more significant 20th-century El Niño events prior to the very large 1982–83 event.
An El Niño that developed in 1991 persisted through much of 1992.
2001 had neutral conditions. El Niño did not develop until 2002.
Don’t Underestimate Potential for Rapid Intensification
Just hours ago, AccuWeather warned that sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are already running near the threshold for tropical development.
And according to Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, people often think hurricanes will give them more lead time than they actually do. But that’s not usually true. Graham told USA Today. “Every Category 5 that’s made landfall in this country was a tropical storm or less at three days out.”
For hurricane preparation tips, consult the Preparation Tab on my Links Page. Hurricane season officially starts in five more days. Also…
Save the Date: Flickinger to Host Preparedness Open House
On Thursday, June 4, from 5-6:30 PM, Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger will host an open house at Kingwood Community Center (4102 Rustic Woods Drive, Kingwood TX 77345) with:
Houston Office of Emergency Management
CenterPoint Energy
Comcast
xfinity
UnionPacific
Trees for Houston
According to the Council Member, the event will feature practical safety information about resources designed to help you, your family and your neighborhood prepare with confidence, such as:
Safe vegetation practices and the Right Tree, Right Place approach
When and why to call 811 before you dig
How to stay safe around railways and utility equipment
Hurricane preparedness tips and local resources
Flickinger said, “Ask questions, explore helpful information and share what matters most in your neighborhood so we can better support the community we serve.”
One of the first things people often lose in Kingwood is power when trees fall against overhead lines. And with the loss of power comes loss of communication. So it’s important to have a plan before that happens.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/27/2026
3193 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_caribbean_current.png?fit=1655%2C1007&ssl=110071655adminadmin2026-05-27 19:31:562026-05-27 19:36:09Gulf Water Temps Near Record Highs with Hurricane Season Just Days Away
Update 5/27/26 – With 100% of voting locations reporting, Mealer beat Cain by more than a 2:1 margin.
5/26/26 – According to multiple news reports, Alexandra Mealer beat State Representative Briscoe Cain in a landslide tonight in the GOP primary runoff election for the newly redrawn Texas Congressional District 9. CD9 runs from the Ship Channel, Deer Park, Pasadena, and Baytown up the east side of Houston all the way to Liberty County. It even takes in the Lake Houston Dam.
The newly re-drawn CD9
From West Point to Afgan to Harvard to CD9
I first met Mealer in 2022 when she ran for Harris County Judge. However, she narrowly lost to Lina Hidalgo then. We reconnected in late 2025/early 2026 when she announced her candidacy for CD9.
I have nothing but admiration for Mealer. I endorsed her in both races. For those who have not met her in person, she is a force of nature, gifted with a keen intellect and seemingly inexhaustible supplies of energy.
Mealer graduated from West Point, then completed advanced training at the Naval Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) school. As a young lieutenant, the Army selected her ahead of her peers to form a new EOD company for a planned surge in Afghanistan. She prepared her team in half the time usually required by the Army then deployed to a forward operating base in Afghanistan.
While there, Mealer was again selected ahead of her peers to lead the EOD Headquarters Company, consisting of 600+ personnel deployed to 40+ locations throughout Afghanistan. For her 14-month deployment, Mealer was awarded the Combat Action Badge and Bronze Star Medal.
After honorably completing military service, Mealer obtained an MBA from Harvard Business School and a JD degree from Harvard Law School. She then went on to leverage her degrees as an oil & gas investment banker in Houston. She specialized in capital markets and merger/acquisition consulting in the oilfield services sector.
Mealer is also a wife, mother and business owner when she isn’t running for Congress.
Mealer Always Looking Forward
Within one day of her 2022 loss in the county judge race, Mealer began crafting legislation that would have expanded the geographic scope of the Harris County Flood Control District. Here is a white paper that Mealer wrote on the subject.
Even though Kingwood is not technically part of CD9, she is extremely familiar with flooding issues here and throughout the region.
Mealer in 2025 learning about Kingwood Town Center flooding issues along Bens Branch on a rainy day.
According to unofficial election results reported in The Texan, New York Times, and Fox News, Mealer held 69 percent of the voting returns reported early Tuesday evening. So, congratulations, Alex Mealer!
Mealer will face Democrat Leticia Gutierrez in the November election. But the new CD9 reportedly leans heavily to the R side now. So Mealer is expected to have a strong advantage in November.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/26/26
3192 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/20250831-DSC_3263.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2026-05-26 22:08:452026-05-27 09:52:46Alex Mealer Defeats State Rep. Cain in GOP Primary Runoff for New CD-9
5/24/26 – What’s wrong with this picture? It shows the confluence of Spring Creek (l) and the San Jacinto West Fork (r).
Confluence of Spring Creek (l) and West Fork on 5/24/26 after several rounds of heavy rain in previous 3 days.
I took it at approximately 3PM today. It has not been retouched. You are looking at the actual color difference in the water coming down the two streams after several days of rain.
However, the heavy rains were almost equally distributed between the two watersheds according to the Harris County Flood Warning System. So, what accounts for the difference? This is important. After all, that’s the drinking water for more than two million people you’re looking at.
20 Square Miles of Sand Mines in a 20 Mile Reach of the River
A quick look at Google Earth Pro will show a huge difference. There is very little (if any) sand mining upstream on the left, but approximately 20 square miles of sand mines in a 20 mile reach of the river upstream on the right.
And in several mines, the West Fork runs right through active or abandoned sand pits, a phenomenon known as “pit capture.”
So, I drove upstream to learn more. Here’s what I saw.
Water flowing out of a former Hallett pit now owned by Riverwalk Porter LLC. The West Fork enters the pit out of frame to the right.See next shot.Where the West Fork now flows into the Riverwalk pit. Hallett mine in background. River used to flow out of frame in the sandy area on the right, which now totally blocks the river.
Farther upstream, but still at the Hallett mine…
The West Fork flows through another captured pit.Northpark Woods subdivision in background. Pond on the left is an active Hallett pit. Pond in center was formerly owned by Hallett’s parent, the Rasmussen Group, but is no longer actively being mined. Despite that, notice discolored water flowing out of center pit into West Fork.The Hallett Mine exposes several square miles of sediment to erosion.
Another source of sediment from the mine is repairs to its dikes. A local fisherman supplied me with this photo taken today. It shows how repairs to a dike near the processing plant are slumping into the river. I originally posted about the repairs several months ago.
Photo taken on 5/24/26 near Hallett processing equipment.
Here’s what that area looks like from the air.
Note loose, unconsolidated sediment dumped into river near center of frame
Externalizing Operational Costs to Taxpayers
The sand-mining industry in Montgomery County helps power growth there. The bulk of the mines are located close to the Harris County line. So Montgomery County gets the benefit. And Harris County gets the cleanup costs in the form of dredging, water treatment, and medical bills.
TCEQ monitors this mine for Nitrate + Nitrite N, total suspended solids, pH, and hazardous metals including Arsenic, Barium, Cadmium, Chromium, Copper, Lead, Manganese, Mercury, Nickel, Selenium, Silver, and Zinc.
Ask your favorite AI program what the health risks of exposure to those chemicals are.
This is what economists call an “externality.” The full cost of providing the sand is not reflected in the bills that purchasers receive. Miners pass their clean up costs on to taxpayers downstream in order to provide an artificially low cost to the actual consumers.
And in my opinion, that’s what’s wrong with the picture.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/24/2026
3190 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/DJI_20260524145751_0210_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2026-05-24 19:21:342026-05-25 09:33:44What’s Wrong with This Picture?
Gulf Water Temps Near Record Highs with Hurricane Season Just Days Away
5/27/26 – Based on sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), weather forecasters are already talking about the possibility of an early season tropical storm in the Gulf. NOAA’s SST Anomalies page shows that as of yesterday, Gulf water temps were already well above normal and near record highs set in 2024.
Such SSTs help form tropical systems by warming the air and making it rise. Hurricane forecasters note that a significant lack of hurricane activity in 2025 left the region with an abundance of hot water that was not “churned up” or cooled by major storms.
Although NOAA predicts a below-normal Atlantic season with eight to 14 named storms, the near-record heat in the Gulf—averaging 2.5 degrees warmer than normal—remains a significant “wild card” for storm intensity.
Conflicting Trends
The other major factor influencing tropical forecasts this year is the growing El Niño.
El Niño tends to suppress tropical storm formation in the Atlantic by creating wind sheer that tears apart tropical storms before they intensify.
However…
Consider these “A” storms:
A story by Dinah Voyles Pulvery in today’s USA Today titled “Hurricane forecasters fear supercharged, early-season storms in 2026″ contained almost two dozen terrifying pictures from Hurricane Agnes in 1972.
Matthew Rosencrans of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center told USA Today that El Niño has the biggest impacts on Atlantic hurricanes that form deep in the tropics. But in the Gulf, there may be more favorable pockets for storms to form.
Three of the four storms above happened during El Niño years.
2001 had neutral conditions. El Niño did not develop until 2002.
Don’t Underestimate Potential for Rapid Intensification
Just hours ago, AccuWeather warned that sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are already running near the threshold for tropical development.
And according to Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, people often think hurricanes will give them more lead time than they actually do. But that’s not usually true. Graham told USA Today. “Every Category 5 that’s made landfall in this country was a tropical storm or less at three days out.”
For hurricane preparation tips, consult the Preparation Tab on my Links Page. Hurricane season officially starts in five more days. Also…
Save the Date: Flickinger to Host Preparedness Open House
On Thursday, June 4, from 5-6:30 PM, Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger will host an open house at Kingwood Community Center (4102 Rustic Woods Drive, Kingwood TX 77345) with:
According to the Council Member, the event will feature practical safety information about resources designed to help you, your family and your neighborhood prepare with confidence, such as:
Flickinger said, “Ask questions, explore helpful information and share what matters most in your neighborhood so we can better support the community we serve.”
One of the first things people often lose in Kingwood is power when trees fall against overhead lines. And with the loss of power comes loss of communication. So it’s important to have a plan before that happens.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/27/2026
3193 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Alex Mealer Defeats State Rep. Cain in GOP Primary Runoff for New CD-9
Update 5/27/26 – With 100% of voting locations reporting, Mealer beat Cain by more than a 2:1 margin.
5/26/26 – According to multiple news reports, Alexandra Mealer beat State Representative Briscoe Cain in a landslide tonight in the GOP primary runoff election for the newly redrawn Texas Congressional District 9. CD9 runs from the Ship Channel, Deer Park, Pasadena, and Baytown up the east side of Houston all the way to Liberty County. It even takes in the Lake Houston Dam.
From West Point to Afgan to Harvard to CD9
I first met Mealer in 2022 when she ran for Harris County Judge. However, she narrowly lost to Lina Hidalgo then. We reconnected in late 2025/early 2026 when she announced her candidacy for CD9.
I have nothing but admiration for Mealer. I endorsed her in both races. For those who have not met her in person, she is a force of nature, gifted with a keen intellect and seemingly inexhaustible supplies of energy.
Mealer graduated from West Point, then completed advanced training at the Naval Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) school. As a young lieutenant, the Army selected her ahead of her peers to form a new EOD company for a planned surge in Afghanistan. She prepared her team in half the time usually required by the Army then deployed to a forward operating base in Afghanistan.
While there, Mealer was again selected ahead of her peers to lead the EOD Headquarters Company, consisting of 600+ personnel deployed to 40+ locations throughout Afghanistan. For her 14-month deployment, Mealer was awarded the Combat Action Badge and Bronze Star Medal.
After honorably completing military service, Mealer obtained an MBA from Harvard Business School and a JD degree from Harvard Law School. She then went on to leverage her degrees as an oil & gas investment banker in Houston. She specialized in capital markets and merger/acquisition consulting in the oilfield services sector.
Mealer is also a wife, mother and business owner when she isn’t running for Congress.
Mealer Always Looking Forward
Within one day of her 2022 loss in the county judge race, Mealer began crafting legislation that would have expanded the geographic scope of the Harris County Flood Control District. Here is a white paper that Mealer wrote on the subject.
Even though Kingwood is not technically part of CD9, she is extremely familiar with flooding issues here and throughout the region.
According to unofficial election results reported in The Texan, New York Times, and Fox News, Mealer held 69 percent of the voting returns reported early Tuesday evening. So, congratulations, Alex Mealer!
Is her win a big deal? Absolutely. It’s crucial for the success of the region. If CD9 were a country, it would have approximately the 20th largest economy in the world, according to Mealer.
Mealer will face Democrat Leticia Gutierrez in the November election. But the new CD9 reportedly leans heavily to the R side now. So Mealer is expected to have a strong advantage in November.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/26/26
3192 Days since Hurricane Harvey
What’s Wrong with This Picture?
5/24/26 – What’s wrong with this picture? It shows the confluence of Spring Creek (l) and the San Jacinto West Fork (r).
I took it at approximately 3PM today. It has not been retouched. You are looking at the actual color difference in the water coming down the two streams after several days of rain.
However, the heavy rains were almost equally distributed between the two watersheds according to the Harris County Flood Warning System. So, what accounts for the difference? This is important. After all, that’s the drinking water for more than two million people you’re looking at.
20 Square Miles of Sand Mines in a 20 Mile Reach of the River
A quick look at Google Earth Pro will show a huge difference. There is very little (if any) sand mining upstream on the left, but approximately 20 square miles of sand mines in a 20 mile reach of the river upstream on the right.
And in several mines, the West Fork runs right through active or abandoned sand pits, a phenomenon known as “pit capture.”
So, I drove upstream to learn more. Here’s what I saw.
Farther upstream, but still at the Hallett mine…
Another source of sediment from the mine is repairs to its dikes. A local fisherman supplied me with this photo taken today. It shows how repairs to a dike near the processing plant are slumping into the river. I originally posted about the repairs several months ago.
Here’s what that area looks like from the air.
Externalizing Operational Costs to Taxpayers
The sand-mining industry in Montgomery County helps power growth there. The bulk of the mines are located close to the Harris County line. So Montgomery County gets the benefit. And Harris County gets the cleanup costs in the form of dredging, water treatment, and medical bills.
Ask your favorite AI program what the health risks of exposure to those chemicals are.
This is what economists call an “externality.” The full cost of providing the sand is not reflected in the bills that purchasers receive. Miners pass their clean up costs on to taxpayers downstream in order to provide an artificially low cost to the actual consumers.
And in my opinion, that’s what’s wrong with the picture.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/24/2026
3190 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.