9/30/2024 – Most forecasters predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be a monster, based on high sea-surface temperatures, Accumulated Cyclone Energy and a developing La Niña. But so far, judging by the numbers, the season has been close to average.
I compiled the tables below through data on the National Hurricane Center archives and news reports.
2024 Hurricane Season Summary to Date
Through September 30
By This Date in Average Year
In 2024
Named Storms
10
11
Hurricanes
5
4
Major Hurricanes
2
2
30-Year Average for Climate
Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
Here’s how a season typically develops.
Beryl set a record this year. It was the earliest Cat 5 hurricane in recorded history. Otherwise, you can see that this season lines up with the averages for “number of storms” pretty well. Compared to the average for the last three decades, we’ve had:
One more named storm
One less hurricane
The same number of major hurricanes.
Here’s a breakdown on the storms so far this year.
2024-Storm Data Through September
Storm
Dates
Max Winds
TS Alberto
19-20 Jun
50
MH Beryl
28 Jun-9 Jul
165
TS Chris
30 Jun-1 Jul
45
H Debby
3-9 Aug
80
H Ernesto
12-20 Aug
100
H Francine
9-14 Sept
100
TS Gordon
13-15 Sept
45
MH Helene
24-29 Sept
140
H Isaac
25-? Sept
105
TS Joyce
27-30 Sept
50
TS Kirk
30 Sept – ?
*
*TS Kirk formed today and is still strengthening. Forecasts say it will likely become a hurricane by 10/1 and Cat 3 by 10/2.
Comparing the two tables above, you can see that we had:
Two storms in August compared to the normal four
Six storms in September compared to the normal four.
That raises the question, “Will be see a sudden burst of late season activity that fulfills the dire predictions for the season?”
Comparison to Predictions
Earlier this year, I ran several stories about three seasonal outlooks.
Colorado State University predicted a 50%+ increase over the 30-year average for each category (named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes).
TropicalStormRisk.com, a British website which has won insurance industry awards predicted that North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2024 would be more than 50% above the long-term average (1950-1923) and 30% above the average for the last three decades (1991-2020).
And as late as August 8, NOAA said we had a 90% chance of an above average hurricane season with:
17-20 named storms
8-13 hurricanes
4-7 major hurricanes
Of course, the season doesn’t end for two more months, but we’re already four months into it. And usually, by October, activity is tailing off.
Unless there’s a sudden burst late season activity, we will probably fall short of those dire estimates this year.
Of course, as Helene’s 600 mile swath of destruction just reminded us, it only takes one storm to make a bad year for you.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/30/2024
2589 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Hurricane-season-Year-to-Date-Thru-Sept-e1727739694954.png?fit=1100%2C276&ssl=12761100adminadmin2024-09-30 18:27:032024-09-30 18:55:402024 Hurricane Season YTD vs Average, Projections
9/29/24 – When talking about using the Lake Houston Dam to help control flooding, one often hears experts say, “That’s not a flood-control dam. That’s a water-supply dam.” So, what’s the difference? And why does it make a difference?
The purpose of the dam influences its design, operation and management. An insider familiar with the effort to add more gates to the Lake Houston Dam said last week that engineers at both Houston Public Works and the Coastal Water Authority have resisted trying to modify a water-supply dam for flood control.
This is not the only reason this project has taken so long to get off the ground. But it helps explain why new, higher capacity Lake Houston gates are just now going into final design – 2588 days after the storm that made the need abundantly clear.
To put that in perspective, 2588 days is almost twice the number of days that it took to win World War II.
Conflicting Purposes, Designs
The primary purpose of a flood-control dam is to reduce flood risk by controlling the flow of water downstream during heavy rains. They accomplish this by temporarily holding back the flow of water. They then release it later in a controlled fashion to smooth out peaks and reduce flood damage.
To mitigate flooding, flood-control dams:
Often have lower water levels under normal conditions to accommodate sudden influxes of water.
Have large spillways and gates to rapidly release water when needed.
Are designed with a large storage capacity relative to the expected flood volumes.
Are sometimes kept partially empty to ensure sufficient space for incoming floodwaters.
Have more robust construction to withstand sudden large inflows and outflows.
On the other hand, the primary purpose of water-supply dams is to store water for human consumption (drinking, bathing, irrigation, industry, etc.).
To ensure consistent supply, a water-supply dam:
Prioritizes a consistent water level to ensure a reliable supply of water throughout the year, even during droughts.
Is usually kept at higher levels.
Stores water over longer periods.
Is managed to ensure sufficient supply throughout the year, with a focus on maximizing storage before dry seasons.
In summary, a flood-control dam is designed and managed to mitigate floods by managing excess water. However, a water-supply dam aims to store water for human use.
In practice, these extremes aren’t quite as mutually exclusive as the terms might imply.
Seasonal Management and Its Alternatives
Seasonal management strategies can help bridge the gap between the two. For instance, operators often manage both types of dams seasonally so they have more storage space during rainy seasons when flood risk spikes.
The SJRA adopted a seasonal lake-lowering strategy for several years after Harvey. But because of political pushback from Lake Conroe residents, the strategy was abandoned after several years.
SJRA now uses another hybrid strategy called “active storm management.” “Active Storm Management” seeks to manage lake levels by releasing water based on real-time weather forecasts to manage reservoir levels more effectively.
Other operators use a similar strategy known as FIRO (Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations). Advanced forecasting models predict inflows and adjust dam releases preemptively.
Lake Houston, Lake Conroe Both Water-Supply Dams
Both Lake Conroe and Lake Houston are water-supply dams. But Lake Houston, built in the early 1950s, has a 3160-foot, fixed-height spillway with four small gates capable of releasing only 10,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) combined. Clearly, engineers prioritized consistent water level over flood mitigation when designing this dam. The small gates make it difficult and time consuming to release water before it reaches the level of the spillway.
According to the Houston Public Works Drinking Water Operations Group, Lake Houston supplies water to 2.2 million people.
Lake Conroe, built in 1973, has five large gates capable of releasing 150,000 CFS. It was designed as an alternate water supply for the City of Houston. The City financed its construction and owns two thirds of the water in the lake.
Lake Conroe has nothing comparable to the fixed-height spillway on Lake Houston.
3160-foot concrete and steel spillway on Lake Houston
During the peak of Harvey, an estimated 425,000 CFS went over the Lake Houston Spillway – 5 times the average flow of Niagara Falls.
In contrast, Lake Conroe released about 80,000 CFS from its gates during Harvey. So why the push to add more gates to Lake Houston?
Gates Key to Hybrid Strategy
Simple. Bigger gates are key to both water conservation and Active Storm Management. Right now, Lake Houston’s gates are so small that lowering the lake significantly can take days. During that time, storms can veer away.
That long lead time creates uncertainty that jeopardizes what Houston Public Works and the Coastal Water Authority see as their primary mission – providing water for 2.2 million people.
Why is Design Taking So Long?
But with more, larger gates, Lake Houston could release enough water in hours to create extra storage capacity. And operators would have confidence that water would not be wasted. So why are the gates taking so long?
Design of more gates for Lake Houston has just now started. Using Harvey as a starting point, we are now almost at twice the amount of time that it took to win World War II.
It’s hard to believe that if everyone agreed with the need for more flood gates, it would have taken this long to start design.
In that regard, I have heard of pushback from both Houston Public Works and Coastal Water Authority. The pushback had to do with the mission of the organizations: to supply water. They just didn’t want to risk wasting it in case we encountered drought.
But our two backup water sources (Lake Conroe and Lake Livingston) combined have 15 times the volume of Lake Houston. So the City probably won’t run short anytime soon.
Flood Mitigation Not In CWA Mission
The Coastal Water Authority, which is the City’s contract operator for Lake Houston, does not even mention “flooding” on its website. That’s right. CWA doesn’t mention the word in its mission statement, guiding principles, strategies, or tactics. They do, however, mention “pumps” 15 times on their Strategic-Plan page. That should give you some idea of their priorities: water supply.
Hopefully, Mayor John Whitmire’s recent appointment of former State Representative Dan Huberty to the Coastal Water Authority Board will help the CWA see Lake Houston from more than one perspective. Huberty has advocated for the gates since Harvey.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/29/24
2588 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/LakeHoustonDamDuringHarvey.jpg?fit=1500%2C968&ssl=19681500adminadmin2024-09-29 20:13:322024-09-29 20:23:55Flood-Control, Water-Supply Dam Differences Help Explain Delay on Lake Houston Gates
9/28/24 – Forecasters predicted a very active 2024 hurricane season. After a slow start, the map is really lighting up. Currently, we have three named storms in the Atlantic Basin:
Remnants of Hurricane Helene, which is now a post-tropical depression centered over Tennessee
Hurricane Isaac, which formed in the middle of the Atlantic without much notice while Helene was barreling toward Florida earlier this week
Tropical Storm Joyce, also in the mid-Atlantic
Still Brewing
None of those named storms is a threat to Houston. However, the map shows two other areas of concern. See below.
Red Area
That elongated red area in the tropical Atlantic a couple hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system. A tropical depression will likely form during the early or middle part of next week. The system should move toward the west and then northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
As of today, NHC lists formation chances for that red area as low (30%) in the next two days, but high (70%) in the next seven days.
Orange Area
Of greater concern for Texans, however, though is that orange area stretching from the northwestern Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure should form there within a couple of days. NHC says environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development thereafter. They also say that a tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week.
This system should move northwestward into the Gulf during the latter portion of next week. NHC warns that interests in and along the Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.
As of today, formation chance through 48 hours is zero. But it’s 50% within 7 days.
Will the Gulf Go 4 for 4?
Lest anyone forget, this area has already spawned two major hurricanes and a hurricane in the last three months – Beryl, Francine and Helene.
Beryl ramped up to a Category 5 before hitting Houston in July.
Francine slammed Louisiana as a Cat 2 in September
Helene made landfall in Florida as a Cat 4 just two days ago.
Sea surface temps in that area are still 1.8 to 5.4 Fahrenheit above normal for this time of year (1-3º C).
So, don’t let your guard down.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/28/24
2587 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/two_atl_7d0-3.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-09-28 13:52:242024-09-28 14:06:39Three Named Storms in Atlantic Basin With Two More Brewing
2024 Hurricane Season YTD vs Average, Projections
9/30/2024 – Most forecasters predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be a monster, based on high sea-surface temperatures, Accumulated Cyclone Energy and a developing La Niña. But so far, judging by the numbers, the season has been close to average.
I compiled the tables below through data on the National Hurricane Center archives and news reports.
2024 Hurricane Season Summary to Date
30-Year Average for Climate
Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
Here’s how a season typically develops.
Beryl set a record this year. It was the earliest Cat 5 hurricane in recorded history. Otherwise, you can see that this season lines up with the averages for “number of storms” pretty well. Compared to the average for the last three decades, we’ve had:
Here’s a breakdown on the storms so far this year.
2024-Storm Data Through September
Comparing the two tables above, you can see that we had:
That raises the question, “Will be see a sudden burst of late season activity that fulfills the dire predictions for the season?”
Comparison to Predictions
Earlier this year, I ran several stories about three seasonal outlooks.
Colorado State University predicted a 50%+ increase over the 30-year average for each category (named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes).
TropicalStormRisk.com, a British website which has won insurance industry awards predicted that North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2024 would be more than 50% above the long-term average (1950-1923) and 30% above the average for the last three decades (1991-2020).
And as late as August 8, NOAA said we had a 90% chance of an above average hurricane season with:
Of course, the season doesn’t end for two more months, but we’re already four months into it. And usually, by October, activity is tailing off.
Unless there’s a sudden burst late season activity, we will probably fall short of those dire estimates this year.
Of course, as Helene’s 600 mile swath of destruction just reminded us, it only takes one storm to make a bad year for you.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/30/2024
2589 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Flood-Control, Water-Supply Dam Differences Help Explain Delay on Lake Houston Gates
9/29/24 – When talking about using the Lake Houston Dam to help control flooding, one often hears experts say, “That’s not a flood-control dam. That’s a water-supply dam.” So, what’s the difference? And why does it make a difference?
The purpose of the dam influences its design, operation and management. An insider familiar with the effort to add more gates to the Lake Houston Dam said last week that engineers at both Houston Public Works and the Coastal Water Authority have resisted trying to modify a water-supply dam for flood control.
This is not the only reason this project has taken so long to get off the ground. But it helps explain why new, higher capacity Lake Houston gates are just now going into final design – 2588 days after the storm that made the need abundantly clear.
To put that in perspective, 2588 days is almost twice the number of days that it took to win World War II.
Conflicting Purposes, Designs
The primary purpose of a flood-control dam is to reduce flood risk by controlling the flow of water downstream during heavy rains. They accomplish this by temporarily holding back the flow of water. They then release it later in a controlled fashion to smooth out peaks and reduce flood damage.
To mitigate flooding, flood-control dams:
On the other hand, the primary purpose of water-supply dams is to store water for human consumption (drinking, bathing, irrigation, industry, etc.).
To ensure consistent supply, a water-supply dam:
In summary, a flood-control dam is designed and managed to mitigate floods by managing excess water. However, a water-supply dam aims to store water for human use.
In practice, these extremes aren’t quite as mutually exclusive as the terms might imply.
Seasonal Management and Its Alternatives
Seasonal management strategies can help bridge the gap between the two. For instance, operators often manage both types of dams seasonally so they have more storage space during rainy seasons when flood risk spikes.
The SJRA adopted a seasonal lake-lowering strategy for several years after Harvey. But because of political pushback from Lake Conroe residents, the strategy was abandoned after several years.
SJRA now uses another hybrid strategy called “active storm management.” “Active Storm Management” seeks to manage lake levels by releasing water based on real-time weather forecasts to manage reservoir levels more effectively.
Other operators use a similar strategy known as FIRO (Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations). Advanced forecasting models predict inflows and adjust dam releases preemptively.
Lake Houston, Lake Conroe Both Water-Supply Dams
Both Lake Conroe and Lake Houston are water-supply dams. But Lake Houston, built in the early 1950s, has a 3160-foot, fixed-height spillway with four small gates capable of releasing only 10,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) combined. Clearly, engineers prioritized consistent water level over flood mitigation when designing this dam. The small gates make it difficult and time consuming to release water before it reaches the level of the spillway.
According to the Houston Public Works Drinking Water Operations Group, Lake Houston supplies water to 2.2 million people.
Lake Conroe, built in 1973, has five large gates capable of releasing 150,000 CFS. It was designed as an alternate water supply for the City of Houston. The City financed its construction and owns two thirds of the water in the lake.
Lake Conroe has nothing comparable to the fixed-height spillway on Lake Houston.
3160-foot concrete and steel spillway on Lake Houston
During the peak of Harvey, an estimated 425,000 CFS went over the Lake Houston Spillway – 5 times the average flow of Niagara Falls.
In contrast, Lake Conroe released about 80,000 CFS from its gates during Harvey. So why the push to add more gates to Lake Houston?
Gates Key to Hybrid Strategy
Simple. Bigger gates are key to both water conservation and Active Storm Management. Right now, Lake Houston’s gates are so small that lowering the lake significantly can take days. During that time, storms can veer away.
That long lead time creates uncertainty that jeopardizes what Houston Public Works and the Coastal Water Authority see as their primary mission – providing water for 2.2 million people.
Why is Design Taking So Long?
But with more, larger gates, Lake Houston could release enough water in hours to create extra storage capacity. And operators would have confidence that water would not be wasted. So why are the gates taking so long?
Design of more gates for Lake Houston has just now started. Using Harvey as a starting point, we are now almost at twice the amount of time that it took to win World War II.
It’s hard to believe that if everyone agreed with the need for more flood gates, it would have taken this long to start design.
In that regard, I have heard of pushback from both Houston Public Works and Coastal Water Authority. The pushback had to do with the mission of the organizations: to supply water. They just didn’t want to risk wasting it in case we encountered drought.
But our two backup water sources (Lake Conroe and Lake Livingston) combined have 15 times the volume of Lake Houston. So the City probably won’t run short anytime soon.
Flood Mitigation Not In CWA Mission
The Coastal Water Authority, which is the City’s contract operator for Lake Houston, does not even mention “flooding” on its website. That’s right. CWA doesn’t mention the word in its mission statement, guiding principles, strategies, or tactics. They do, however, mention “pumps” 15 times on their Strategic-Plan page. That should give you some idea of their priorities: water supply.
Hopefully, Mayor John Whitmire’s recent appointment of former State Representative Dan Huberty to the Coastal Water Authority Board will help the CWA see Lake Houston from more than one perspective. Huberty has advocated for the gates since Harvey.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/29/24
2588 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Three Named Storms in Atlantic Basin With Two More Brewing
9/28/24 – Forecasters predicted a very active 2024 hurricane season. After a slow start, the map is really lighting up. Currently, we have three named storms in the Atlantic Basin:
Still Brewing
None of those named storms is a threat to Houston. However, the map shows two other areas of concern. See below.
Red Area
That elongated red area in the tropical Atlantic a couple hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system. A tropical depression will likely form during the early or middle part of next week. The system should move toward the west and then northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
As of today, NHC lists formation chances for that red area as low (30%) in the next two days, but high (70%) in the next seven days.
Orange Area
Of greater concern for Texans, however, though is that orange area stretching from the northwestern Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure should form there within a couple of days. NHC says environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development thereafter. They also say that a tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week.
This system should move northwestward into the Gulf during the latter portion of next week. NHC warns that interests in and along the Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.
As of today, formation chance through 48 hours is zero. But it’s 50% within 7 days.
Will the Gulf Go 4 for 4?
Lest anyone forget, this area has already spawned two major hurricanes and a hurricane in the last three months – Beryl, Francine and Helene.
Sea surface temps in that area are still 1.8 to 5.4 Fahrenheit above normal for this time of year (1-3º C).
So, don’t let your guard down.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/28/24
2587 Days since Hurricane Harvey