11/4/26 – Tomorrow, the SJRA will unveil the results of a study concerning pre-releasing water from Lake Conroe in advance of storms to reduce downstream flood risk. It’s part of a larger study about Joint Reservoir Operations between Lake Conroe and Lake Houston. SJRA will unveil the “pre-release” results in Conroe Thursday evening.
The idea behind pre-release? Lower a lake’s level before a storm to create more capacity to absorb runoff without flooding people’s homes and businesses. See below.
Matt Barrett, PE, manager of SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division, says this meeting will differ dramatically from the meeting held in Humble last March. While the meeting is being billed as Joint Reservoir Operations Study Public Meeting #2, “The primary goal of Public Meeting #2 is to share results of the analysis of pre-releases at Lake Conroe and Lake Houston.”
Format of Meeting
“The meeting will begin at 6 p.m., with a presentation at 6:30. There will be a public comment period following the presentation. Before and after the presentation, study team members will be available to discuss the study with the public. Several posters will be available to help explain results of the analysis,” said Barrett.
Barrett would not reveal any conclusions of the study beforehand. He urges downstream residents to attend the meeting to learn more.
Meeting Time/Location
November 5, 2026
6:00pm – 8:00pm
Lone Star Convention & Expo Center
9055 Airport Road, Conroe, TX 77303
Limitations of Pre-Release
The effectiveness of pre-release would likely depend on a number of factors including:
Direction of Storm: Pre-release of Lake Conroe when a storm approaches from the south could cause Lake Houston to get hammered from both directions.
Forecast Uncertainty: Lowering both lakes could waste water if a storm veers away.
Storm Intensity: Could both lakes be lowered enough and in time to prevent flooding? The answer to this question depends on whether Lake Houston receives additional floodgates. Right now, Lake Houston’s primary release mechanism is a fixed-height spillway. Existing gates have 1/15th the release capacity of Lake Conroe’s.
Focus of Rainfall Across River Basin: The Lake Conroe Dam on the San Jacinto West Fork controls approximately 15% of the river basin upstream from Lake Houston. Despite that, during Harvey, Lake Conroe released one third of all the water coming down the West Fork. If a storm primarily affects the East Fork, such as TS Imelda did in 2019, pre-releasing water from a West Fork dam would have little impact.
Pre-Release Dependent on More Floodgates for Lake Houston
The City of Houston has not yet completed its study on adding more floodgates to Lake Houston (though the study is 90% complete according to a newsletter released yesterday by Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger).
The newsletter discussed a huge funding gap created by a change in the project’s scope. Republican election losses yesterday may make that gap more difficult to fill. Without the additional floodgates, pre-releases would have to begin far in advance of a storm when uncertainty about its track would still be high. Storms could veer away before they hit.
Dueling Studies?
Meanwhile, the Lake Conroe Association (LCA) has historically opposed pre-release, especially in the form of seasonal lake lowering. Seasonal lake lowering was abandoned several years ago because of pushback from LCA.
The Bleyl study concluded that the ONLY area to receive flood reduction benefits from lowering Lake Conroe is immediately downstream from the Lake Conroe Dam.
Even though the Lake Conroe release during Harvey was ONE THIRD of all the water coming down the West Fork, Bleyl concluded that pre-release would lower flood levels in the Kingwood area by only three inches – LESS THAN 1%.
I have been trying to obtain the entire Bleyl study since mid-October (as opposed to the summary posted on the LCA website). However, LCA has refused to release the details.
Barrett says that the Bleyl study will not be part of the program, but that LCA members will attend.
So, my guess is that the SJRA meeting tomorrow night will contain a lot of highly charged, self-interested claims. If you’re concerned about flooding, I advise you to protect your interests by attending and speaking during public comments.
As I said above, pre-releases are not automatically beneficial. However, dozens of case studies and academic articles from around the world have proven that pre-releases can have benefits in the right conditions. More on that depending on what happens tomorrow night.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/4/2026
3354 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/LakeHoustonDamDuringHarvey.jpg?fit=1500%2C968&ssl=19681500adminadmin2026-11-04 16:06:492026-11-04 16:06:50SJRA to Unveil Results of Pre-Release Study in Conroe on 11/5/26
11/3/26 – Joe Higgs, a petroleum reservoir engineer with 30 years of experience, sent me a series of maps that show the expansion of subsidence in the Houston region since 1906. They show a small problem that started in Harris and Galveston Counties gradually grow until it engulfed the entire region.
Subsidence from 1906 to the 2020s
This simple sequence below underscores why we must not ignore subsidence. If you’re not yet affected, you will be.
All of the maps are compiled in this PDF. Scroll through the pages quickly and see the expansion in motion. It’s startling.
What is Subsidence and What Causes It?
Subsidence is a sinking of the ground beneath you. Withdrawing groundwater faster than nature replenishes it causes subsidence. As the water is removed, sand and clay in the soil become compacted. And once compacted, soil stays that way. Imagine smashing a brownie. It will never return to its original height.
Dark lines represent Montgomery County’s total groundwater pumping. Notice how the increase coincides with the MoCo’s subsidence increase.
Today, the area is uninhabitable. All the homes are gone. The area has been turned into a park.
Differential subsidence can also form bowls in the landscape. Such bowls can collect water that contributes to flooding. Or they may slow runoff, causing floodwaters to rise beyond predicted levels.
Differential subsidence can even tilt the landscape behind dams. For instance, areas upstream from the Lake Houston Dam are sinking faster than the dam itself. So, the height of homes above the floodplain decreases, erasing the safety margin that engineers built into their design.
Can Subsidence Be Halted?
Yes. Subsidence can be halted. But it takes political will power. Prudent regulation. The cooperation of residents. And conversion to surface water.
The Harris-Galveston Subsidence District has proven that subsidence can be stopped. The first areas it regulated near the coast have largely stopped sinking. However, newly developed areas to the north and west in Montgomery, Fort Bend and Waller counties still sink at an alarming rate.
They lie beyond the regulatory reach of the Subsidence District. They still use groundwater instead of surface water. In the short run, it’s cheaper to drill a well than build a pipeline.
Meanwhile, in the long run, the cost of continually drilling wells deeper to chase vanishing water supplies adds up. Tax increases to cover those costs also add up. And the damage to infrastructure and homes? Well…nobody is adding those costs up. And because subsidence happens slowly, it’s easy to ignore. Until it’s not. When the well runs dry.
Transportation: The Solution to Subsidence
In the end, people realize that the solution to subsidence and long-term water security is transportation. Communities must build pipelines and canals to reservoirs, such as Lake Conroe, Lake Houston and Lake Livingston.
Surface water should be our primary supply. And groundwater should be our backup. Not the other way around.
For More Information
I’ve written 98 articles about subsidence dating back to 2018. For more information, just search on the keyword “subsidence.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/3/2026 with thanks to Joe Higgs
3353 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/2024-10_Memo_Higgs_GMAs_15-16_Subsidence_DFC_Slides_Page_7.jpg?fit=2001%2C1125&ssl=111252001adminadmin2026-11-03 12:23:572026-11-03 12:25:14Time-Lapse Maps Show Growth of Subsidence in Houston Region
11/2/26 – Republican Alex Mealer is pitted against Democrat Leticia Gutierrez in the newly redrawn Congressional District 9. CD9 includes large parts of the Lake Houston Area. I endorse Alexandra Mealer based on her distinguished background and her continued commitment to improving flood-mitigation infrastructure in our region.
Mealer Focused on Flooding, Infrastructure, Safety and Economy
Mealer is focused on what is important to 9th District: drainage and mobility infrastructure, public safety, and economic stability. She cares enough to have met with me numerous times to study important issues in the Lake Houston area in person.
On the other hand, Gutierrez has not reached out to me at all. Gutierrez has other priorities and is campaigning with Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo. Hidalgo has voted to prioritize flood mitigation in parts of Harris County with far less flood risk than the Lake Houston Area.
Alex Mealer’s Distinguished Background
No one works harder than Mealer. Her energy seems to have no limits. I believe she will be a work horse in Congress, not a show horse.
Mealer graduated from West Point, then completed advanced training at the Naval Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) school. As a young lieutenant, the Army selected her ahead of her peers to form a new EOD company for a planned surge in Afghanistan. She prepared her team in half the time usually required by the Army then deployed to a forward operating base in Afghanistan.
While there, Mealer was again selected ahead of her peers to lead the EOD Headquarters Company, consisting of 600+ personnel deployed to 40+ locations throughout Afghanistan. For her 14-month deployment, Mealer was awarded the Combat Action Badge and Bronze Star Medal.
After honorably completing military service, Mealer obtained an MBA from Harvard Business School and a JD degree from Harvard Law School. She then went on to leverage her degrees as an oil & gas investment banker in Houston. She specialized in capital markets and merger/acquisition consulting in the oilfield services sector.
In 2021, Mealer campaigned against incumbent Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, but narrowly lost. Mealer secured more than 49% of the vote.
Mealer has worked as a VP for a major private financial institution and served as a representative of 14 cities on the METRO board where she also chaired the public safety committee.
About Congressional District 9
The new Texas Congressional District 9 stretches from Cleveland to the ship channel and Port of Houston. It includes refinery complexes in Pasadena, Deer Park, and Baytown. If CD9 were a country, it would have approximately the 20th largest economy in the world. CD9 also includes large parts of the Lake Houston Area.
The new CD9 includes the East Fork San Jacinto, Luce Bayou, the Luce Bayou Inter-Basin Transfer Project, the Trinity River, the Lake Houston Dam, Colony Ridge, all of Liberty County and major parts of Harris County.
From north to south, water weaves through CD9 into CD2 and back into CD9.
“CD9 is Houston’s economic gateway to the world. It needs world-class infrastructure.” Alex Mealer
Lake Houston Dam and Harris County Flood Projects
The inclusion of the Lake Houston Dam in the new CD9 will put major funding and leadership responsibilities on the new congressional representative. The City just started a major repair project on the dam. Houston has also been studying ways to add more floodgates for several years now.
A strong representative in CD9 could help with those projects. A strong representative could also help Harris County reach well beyond the 2018 flood bond.
Heavy vehicular traffic near refineries places exceptional stress on infrastructure. And in military fashion, Mealer has made infrastructure her mission.
She and I spent a day scouting drainage channels plus dredging and maintenance needs in the Lake Houston Area all the way down to Crosby and Barrett Station.
Mealer caught in downpour at Bens Branch and Kingwood Drive.
Despite heavy rain, Mealer smiled through it all and pushed our recon patrol forward for another four hours. That was on a Sunday. On a major holiday weekend.
I don’t know about you. But I feel this area needs that kind of committed leadership. And that’s why I’m endorsing her.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/2/26
3352 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/20250831-DSC_3263.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2026-11-02 13:39:022026-11-02 13:44:48Endorsement: Alexandra Mealer in Congressional District 9
SJRA to Unveil Results of Pre-Release Study in Conroe on 11/5/26
11/4/26 – Tomorrow, the SJRA will unveil the results of a study concerning pre-releasing water from Lake Conroe in advance of storms to reduce downstream flood risk. It’s part of a larger study about Joint Reservoir Operations between Lake Conroe and Lake Houston. SJRA will unveil the “pre-release” results in Conroe Thursday evening.
The idea behind pre-release? Lower a lake’s level before a storm to create more capacity to absorb runoff without flooding people’s homes and businesses. See below.
Matt Barrett, PE, manager of SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division, says this meeting will differ dramatically from the meeting held in Humble last March. While the meeting is being billed as Joint Reservoir Operations Study Public Meeting #2, “The primary goal of Public Meeting #2 is to share results of the analysis of pre-releases at Lake Conroe and Lake Houston.”
Format of Meeting
“The meeting will begin at 6 p.m., with a presentation at 6:30. There will be a public comment period following the presentation. Before and after the presentation, study team members will be available to discuss the study with the public. Several posters will be available to help explain results of the analysis,” said Barrett.
Barrett would not reveal any conclusions of the study beforehand. He urges downstream residents to attend the meeting to learn more.
Meeting Time/Location
November 5, 2026
6:00pm – 8:00pm
Lone Star Convention & Expo Center
9055 Airport Road, Conroe, TX 77303
Limitations of Pre-Release
The effectiveness of pre-release would likely depend on a number of factors including:
Direction of Storm: Pre-release of Lake Conroe when a storm approaches from the south could cause Lake Houston to get hammered from both directions.
Forecast Uncertainty: Lowering both lakes could waste water if a storm veers away.
Storm Intensity: Could both lakes be lowered enough and in time to prevent flooding? The answer to this question depends on whether Lake Houston receives additional floodgates. Right now, Lake Houston’s primary release mechanism is a fixed-height spillway. Existing gates have 1/15th the release capacity of Lake Conroe’s.
Focus of Rainfall Across River Basin: The Lake Conroe Dam on the San Jacinto West Fork controls approximately 15% of the river basin upstream from Lake Houston. Despite that, during Harvey, Lake Conroe released one third of all the water coming down the West Fork. If a storm primarily affects the East Fork, such as TS Imelda did in 2019, pre-releasing water from a West Fork dam would have little impact.
Pre-Release Dependent on More Floodgates for Lake Houston
The City of Houston has not yet completed its study on adding more floodgates to Lake Houston (though the study is 90% complete according to a newsletter released yesterday by Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger).
The newsletter discussed a huge funding gap created by a change in the project’s scope. Republican election losses yesterday may make that gap more difficult to fill. Without the additional floodgates, pre-releases would have to begin far in advance of a storm when uncertainty about its track would still be high. Storms could veer away before they hit.
Dueling Studies?
Meanwhile, the Lake Conroe Association (LCA) has historically opposed pre-release, especially in the form of seasonal lake lowering. Seasonal lake lowering was abandoned several years ago because of pushback from LCA.
Since then, they have funded their own pre-release study, conducted by Bleyl Engineering.
I have been trying to obtain the entire Bleyl study since mid-October (as opposed to the summary posted on the LCA website). However, LCA has refused to release the details.
Barrett says that the Bleyl study will not be part of the program, but that LCA members will attend.
So, my guess is that the SJRA meeting tomorrow night will contain a lot of highly charged, self-interested claims. If you’re concerned about flooding, I advise you to protect your interests by attending and speaking during public comments.
As I said above, pre-releases are not automatically beneficial. However, dozens of case studies and academic articles from around the world have proven that pre-releases can have benefits in the right conditions. More on that depending on what happens tomorrow night.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/4/2026
3354 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Time-Lapse Maps Show Growth of Subsidence in Houston Region
11/3/26 – Joe Higgs, a petroleum reservoir engineer with 30 years of experience, sent me a series of maps that show the expansion of subsidence in the Houston region since 1906. They show a small problem that started in Harris and Galveston Counties gradually grow until it engulfed the entire region.
Subsidence from 1906 to the 2020s
This simple sequence below underscores why we must not ignore subsidence. If you’re not yet affected, you will be.
All of the maps are compiled in this PDF. Scroll through the pages quickly and see the expansion in motion. It’s startling.
What is Subsidence and What Causes It?
Subsidence is a sinking of the ground beneath you. Withdrawing groundwater faster than nature replenishes it causes subsidence. As the water is removed, sand and clay in the soil become compacted. And once compacted, soil stays that way. Imagine smashing a brownie. It will never return to its original height.
Groundwater extraction in the Houston region has led to the irreversible loss of 12 cubic kilometers of groundwater storage – equivalent to 60 times the volume of Lake Houston.
What Effects Does Subsidence Have?
Individual homeowners may experience subsidence as foundation issues. Slabs settle and crack. Bricks separate. Driveways crack. Pipes break. Doors and cabinets won’t close. Wallboard buckles. Gaps appear in molding. Tile cracks.
On a wider scale, streets, sewers and pipelines shift and crack. Storm drains may start flowing backwards. Brownwood, a whole subdivision near Galveston Bay sank beneath the waves.
Differential subsidence can also form bowls in the landscape. Such bowls can collect water that contributes to flooding. Or they may slow runoff, causing floodwaters to rise beyond predicted levels.
Differential subsidence can even tilt the landscape behind dams. For instance, areas upstream from the Lake Houston Dam are sinking faster than the dam itself. So, the height of homes above the floodplain decreases, erasing the safety margin that engineers built into their design.
Can Subsidence Be Halted?
Yes. Subsidence can be halted. But it takes political will power. Prudent regulation. The cooperation of residents. And conversion to surface water.
The Harris-Galveston Subsidence District has proven that subsidence can be stopped. The first areas it regulated near the coast have largely stopped sinking. However, newly developed areas to the north and west in Montgomery, Fort Bend and Waller counties still sink at an alarming rate.
They lie beyond the regulatory reach of the Subsidence District. They still use groundwater instead of surface water. In the short run, it’s cheaper to drill a well than build a pipeline.
And the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District in Montgomery County has no appetite to even acknowledge subsidence any more. They want to pump groundwater at a rate that’s three times higher than the rate of replenishment. It’s a slow motion problem in the making.
Meanwhile, in the long run, the cost of continually drilling wells deeper to chase vanishing water supplies adds up. Tax increases to cover those costs also add up. And the damage to infrastructure and homes? Well…nobody is adding those costs up. And because subsidence happens slowly, it’s easy to ignore. Until it’s not. When the well runs dry.
Transportation: The Solution to Subsidence
In the end, people realize that the solution to subsidence and long-term water security is transportation. Communities must build pipelines and canals to reservoirs, such as Lake Conroe, Lake Houston and Lake Livingston.
Surface water should be our primary supply. And groundwater should be our backup. Not the other way around.
For More Information
I’ve written 98 articles about subsidence dating back to 2018. For more information, just search on the keyword “subsidence.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/3/2026 with thanks to Joe Higgs
3353 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Endorsement: Alexandra Mealer in Congressional District 9
11/2/26 – Republican Alex Mealer is pitted against Democrat Leticia Gutierrez in the newly redrawn Congressional District 9. CD9 includes large parts of the Lake Houston Area. I endorse Alexandra Mealer based on her distinguished background and her continued commitment to improving flood-mitigation infrastructure in our region.
Mealer Focused on Flooding, Infrastructure, Safety and Economy
Mealer is focused on what is important to 9th District: drainage and mobility infrastructure, public safety, and economic stability. She cares enough to have met with me numerous times to study important issues in the Lake Houston area in person.
On the other hand, Gutierrez has not reached out to me at all. Gutierrez has other priorities and is campaigning with Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo. Hidalgo has voted to prioritize flood mitigation in parts of Harris County with far less flood risk than the Lake Houston Area.
Alex Mealer’s Distinguished Background
No one works harder than Mealer. Her energy seems to have no limits. I believe she will be a work horse in Congress, not a show horse.
Mealer graduated from West Point, then completed advanced training at the Naval Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) school. As a young lieutenant, the Army selected her ahead of her peers to form a new EOD company for a planned surge in Afghanistan. She prepared her team in half the time usually required by the Army then deployed to a forward operating base in Afghanistan.
While there, Mealer was again selected ahead of her peers to lead the EOD Headquarters Company, consisting of 600+ personnel deployed to 40+ locations throughout Afghanistan. For her 14-month deployment, Mealer was awarded the Combat Action Badge and Bronze Star Medal.
After honorably completing military service, Mealer obtained an MBA from Harvard Business School and a JD degree from Harvard Law School. She then went on to leverage her degrees as an oil & gas investment banker in Houston. She specialized in capital markets and merger/acquisition consulting in the oilfield services sector.
In 2021, Mealer campaigned against incumbent Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, but narrowly lost. Mealer secured more than 49% of the vote.
Mealer has worked as a VP for a major private financial institution and served as a representative of 14 cities on the METRO board where she also chaired the public safety committee.
About Congressional District 9
The new Texas Congressional District 9 stretches from Cleveland to the ship channel and Port of Houston. It includes refinery complexes in Pasadena, Deer Park, and Baytown. If CD9 were a country, it would have approximately the 20th largest economy in the world. CD9 also includes large parts of the Lake Houston Area.
The new CD9 includes the East Fork San Jacinto, Luce Bayou, the Luce Bayou Inter-Basin Transfer Project, the Trinity River, the Lake Houston Dam, Colony Ridge, all of Liberty County and major parts of Harris County.
From north to south, water weaves through CD9 into CD2 and back into CD9.
Here is a white paper that Mealer wrote on the subject of a Gulf Coast Resiliency District.Any flood-mitigation solution must recognize the interdependence of these areas for their collective safety. CD9 cannot be operated independently as a fiefdom.
Lake Houston Dam and Harris County Flood Projects
The inclusion of the Lake Houston Dam in the new CD9 will put major funding and leadership responsibilities on the new congressional representative. The City just started a major repair project on the dam. Houston has also been studying ways to add more floodgates for several years now.
A strong representative in CD9 could help with those projects. A strong representative could also help Harris County reach well beyond the 2018 flood bond.
Heavy vehicular traffic near refineries places exceptional stress on infrastructure. And in military fashion, Mealer has made infrastructure her mission.
She and I spent a day scouting drainage channels plus dredging and maintenance needs in the Lake Houston Area all the way down to Crosby and Barrett Station.
Despite heavy rain, Mealer smiled through it all and pushed our recon patrol forward for another four hours. That was on a Sunday. On a major holiday weekend.
I don’t know about you. But I feel this area needs that kind of committed leadership. And that’s why I’m endorsing her.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/2/26
3352 Days since Hurricane Harvey