5/5/26 – Hurricane forecast cones will have a new look for 2026 according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As part of a suite of product improvements, NHC will implement two new tropical products and services:
A new operational hurricane track cone map
A new storm surge alerts for Hawaii.
“These improvements empower communities to prepare earlier and more effectively for dangerous hazards from tropical storms and hurricanes,” said Michael Brennan, director, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.
Improved Tropical Cyclone Forecast Cone
The tropical cyclone graphic helps communities remain vigilant from the dangers posed by wind hazards associated with hurricanes and tropical storms, including in locations away from the coast. In 2026, the forecast cone will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas.
The additional information follows a successful experimental phase last year, which demonstrated the improved forecast cone enabled inland communities to better understand and prepare for the danger posed by tropical cyclone winds. See sample below.
Example of 2026 version of cone graphic for Hurricane Milton (2024) shows inland watches and warnings. (Image credit: NOAA National Hurricane Center)
What to know about the new cone graphic:
Incorporates all land-based (coastal and inland) tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands
Uses single shading for the entire 5-day outlook cone
Legend depicts symbols for areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are both in effect (represented by diagonal pink and blue lines)
Full and intermediate Tropical Cyclone Advisories are/will be publicly available on hurricanes.gov.
Another Experimental Feature
NHC will also introduce a new experimental version of the NHC’s Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone. Since its debut in 2002, the cone has shown where the tropical cyclone’s forecast center is likely to go, based on past forecast calculations.
Beginning in 2026, the experimental cone will use ellipses anchored at each NHC forecast point, allowing for the experimental cone to capture a range of possibilities for both the speed and direction of the tropical cyclone’s forecast path. NHC will experiment changing two aspects of the cone using ellipses (instead of circles) to account for errors in speed and direction, and the cone will include 90% of forecast track possibilities, instead of the traditional 67% forecast error.
The experimental cone graphic will be available on hurricanes.gov for full and intermediate advisories. During the experimental phase, technical issues could affect the timeliness or availability of the graphic.
New Storm Surge Products for Hawaii
New products and services for the Hawaiian Islands include storm surge watches and warnings and a peak storm surge graphic. This expands the NHC’s storm surge products and services that are currently serving the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of America coastline, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
2026 example of a new Potential Storm Surge Watch and Warning Graphic for the Hawaiian Islands by NOAA
What to know about the new storm surge products for Hawaii:
Deliver probability-based forecasts of water and storm surge levels within 72 hours of hurricane impacts
Incorporate forecast inputs such as storm track, wind intensity, and wind radii
Are publicly available for the main Hawaiian Islands.
These new and improved products and services are a continuation of NHC’s focus to improve public safety messaging and advance the public’s understanding of hazards associated with tropical storms.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/5/2026 based on press release from NHC
3171 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/cone-graphic-Hurricane-Milton-2024.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2026-05-05 20:34:112026-05-05 20:34:12New Hurricane Forecast Cone Graphics for 2026 Season
5/4/2026 – On May 1, 2026, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) finally submitted a detailed spreadsheet demanded by Harris County Commissioners. It shows key milestones in Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) projects receiving $868 million in federal funding.
The data raises two red flags:
Only 11 of 28 projects will meet deadlines
Construction bids far below initial estimates could leave tens of millions of dollars on the table.
Here is the detailed spreadsheet. The data directly contradicts rosy, high-level claims made by Dr. Tina Petersen, HCFCD’s executive director, in Commissioners Court on January 8, 2026. At that time…
So, let’s look at the deadlines with the detailed information now in hand. This story has the sad feeling of a football game with the home team down 30 points and only three minutes left on the scoreboard clock.
Deadlines Looming
The 28 CDBG projects are split into two groups with different deadlines:
11 CDBG-Disaster Relief (DR) worth $322 million
17 CDBG-Mitigation (MIT) worth $546 million.
DR projects have, by far, the tightest deadline – February 28, 2027. MIT projects have longer; 50% of that money must be spent by March 31, 2028, with the remainder spent by 2032. So, let’s look at DR projects now and save the MIT discussion for another day.
New Doc Predicts Only Five DR Projects Will Beat 2/28/27 Deadline
Of the 11 DR projects, HCFCD now predicts that only five will beat their deadline. (Estimate “substantial completion” dates shown in parentheses below.)
Of these five projects, HCFCD is only actually moving dirt on two so far.
Arbor Oaks (30% complete with 51% of construction days elapsed)
Brookglen (8% complete with 9% of construction time elapsed).
Can they be completed in time? The Arbor Oaks job is a cautionary example. Contractors have completed only 30% of the job in half the allotted time.
Six DR Projects Now Predicted to Miss 2/28/27 Deadline
According to HCFCD’s latest spreadsheet, the six projects below will miss their deadlines. Construction bids on four of the six have not even been awarded yet (Genoa, Kluge, Isom, Dinner).
HCFCD is not moving dirt on ANY of the projects in this second group yet, though a construction trailer is on the East TC Jester Site and clearing reportedly started last week.
Less than 10 months remain on the game clock for the 11 DR projects.
How Reliable are Completion-Date Estimates?
But how much can we depend on HCFCD projections given delays and promises to date? We should remember that under Petersen, HCFCD attempted to build the Mercer SWDB on an expedited basis in ONE YEAR. It took FOUR!
Is There Flexibility in Deadline?
The Texas General Land Office (GLO), which administers US Department of Housing and Urban Development CDBG funds in Texas, has given itself a year after 2/28/27 to close out all DR jobs.
GLO might be able to give up a few months of that year – if projects are close to completion. For instance, several projects in the second group are currently projected to miss the deadline by less than three months.
However, GLO needs the rest of that year to do its work. Beyond that year, it would literally take an act of Congress to extend the deadline. Good luck with that, given the current political gridlock in Washington.
All Construction Bids Lower than Estimates So Far
Close examination of the HCFCD CDBG spreadsheet shows that ALL DR construction bids so far have come in lower than engineers’ estimates. This could create a budget surplus.
A GLO spokesperson says that in cases like that, the money could be shifted to other projects within the group that might have a deficit. Potentially, extra projects might also be possible.
However, at this stage of the game, finding a shovel-ready project that could be bundled into the DR group would be difficult. Any surplus would likely be grouped into a Disaster Recovery Reallocation Program (DRRP) at some future date.
We saw this recently when the GLO allocated unspent funds from disasters before Harvey to Harvey-related projects. That sweetened HCFCD’s DR pot by more than $100 million.
At this very moment, county and GLO officials are scrambling to identify eligible projects. However, construction experts I talked to doubt there’s time to do them before the deadline – even if one or more could be identified.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/4/2026
3170 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/DR-and-MIT-Project-Locations.jpg?fit=1100%2C823&ssl=18231100adminadmin2026-05-04 21:20:512026-05-05 08:10:38HCFCD Document Shows It Misled Commissioners, Public on CDBG Funding Worth Hundreds of Millions
5/02/26 – There’s still time to sign the petition against Scarborough’s 5300+ acre floodplain development upstream from the Lake Houston Area between Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork. One of the region’s leading hydrologists told me that if it gets developed, it would be like aiming a firehose at Humble and Kingwood.
Why This Land Should Not Be Developed
This is one of the most flood-prone areas in the entire Houston region. See this 30-second video of wetlands that lace the area.
Scarborough Area in center of FEMA’s Flood Hazard Layer Viewer. Crosshatch = floodway, Aqua = 100-year floodplain, Brown = 500-year.
New flood maps show the situation is even worse than it appears above. The area is about half the size of Kingwood and exceedingly flat.
Looking NW at Scarborough property at confluence of Spring Creek (l) and San Jacinto West Fork (r).
Near the confluence, dry land would be under at least 25 feet of water in another flood like Harvey.
From FEMA Base Flood Elevation Viewer
Just this morning, at 8 AM after a mere 4 inches of rain, the Harris County Flood Warning System showed the river was in danger of overflowing near the bridge – the only such channel in the area.
This is just a dangerous place to build, at least in my opinion.
GLO Backing Developer
Yet strangely, the Texas General Land Office, which is responsible for $14 billion dollars of HUD flood-mitigation money in Texas, is a financial partner in the development. Even worse, the GLO refuses to explain why, what the terms of its investment are, and how much of your tax money it has invested. Print out the poster below, and share it with your friends and family.
For a high res PDF suitable for printing, click here.
Please Sign Petition NOW
But above all, if you haven’t yet signed the petition protesting this development, do it NOW!
A Friendswood executive once told me they looked at extending Kingwood Drive across this property but gave up on the idea because it would have cost too much to do it safely.
So, read the details of the petition at Change.org and please sign it. It will only take a minute and could save your home someday. Not to mention, a lot of your tax dollars now.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/2/2026
3168 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/DJI_20260502092307_0995_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2026-05-02 19:45:202026-05-02 21:37:18Still Time to Sign Petition Against Upstream Floodplain Development
New Hurricane Forecast Cone Graphics for 2026 Season
5/5/26 – Hurricane forecast cones will have a new look for 2026 according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As part of a suite of product improvements, NHC will implement two new tropical products and services:
“These improvements empower communities to prepare earlier and more effectively for dangerous hazards from tropical storms and hurricanes,” said Michael Brennan, director, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.
Improved Tropical Cyclone Forecast Cone
The tropical cyclone graphic helps communities remain vigilant from the dangers posed by wind hazards associated with hurricanes and tropical storms, including in locations away from the coast. In 2026, the forecast cone will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas.
The additional information follows a successful experimental phase last year, which demonstrated the improved forecast cone enabled inland communities to better understand and prepare for the danger posed by tropical cyclone winds. See sample below.
What to know about the new cone graphic:
Another Experimental Feature
NHC will also introduce a new experimental version of the NHC’s Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone. Since its debut in 2002, the cone has shown where the tropical cyclone’s forecast center is likely to go, based on past forecast calculations.
Beginning in 2026, the experimental cone will use ellipses anchored at each NHC forecast point, allowing for the experimental cone to capture a range of possibilities for both the speed and direction of the tropical cyclone’s forecast path. NHC will experiment changing two aspects of the cone using ellipses (instead of circles) to account for errors in speed and direction, and the cone will include 90% of forecast track possibilities, instead of the traditional 67% forecast error.
The experimental cone graphic will be available on hurricanes.gov for full and intermediate advisories. During the experimental phase, technical issues could affect the timeliness or availability of the graphic.
New Storm Surge Products for Hawaii
New products and services for the Hawaiian Islands include storm surge watches and warnings and a peak storm surge graphic. This expands the NHC’s storm surge products and services that are currently serving the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of America coastline, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
What to know about the new storm surge products for Hawaii:
These new and improved products and services are a continuation of NHC’s focus to improve public safety messaging and advance the public’s understanding of hazards associated with tropical storms.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/5/2026 based on press release from NHC
3171 Days since Hurricane Harvey
HCFCD Document Shows It Misled Commissioners, Public on CDBG Funding Worth Hundreds of Millions
5/4/2026 – On May 1, 2026, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) finally submitted a detailed spreadsheet demanded by Harris County Commissioners. It shows key milestones in Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) projects receiving $868 million in federal funding.
The data raises two red flags:
Here is the detailed spreadsheet. The data directly contradicts rosy, high-level claims made by Dr. Tina Petersen, HCFCD’s executive director, in Commissioners Court on January 8, 2026. At that time…
So, let’s look at the deadlines with the detailed information now in hand. This story has the sad feeling of a football game with the home team down 30 points and only three minutes left on the scoreboard clock.
Deadlines Looming
The 28 CDBG projects are split into two groups with different deadlines:
DR projects have, by far, the tightest deadline – February 28, 2027. MIT projects have longer; 50% of that money must be spent by March 31, 2028, with the remainder spent by 2032. So, let’s look at DR projects now and save the MIT discussion for another day.
New Doc Predicts Only Five DR Projects Will Beat 2/28/27 Deadline
Of the 11 DR projects, HCFCD now predicts that only five will beat their deadline. (Estimate “substantial completion” dates shown in parentheses below.)
Of these five projects, HCFCD is only actually moving dirt on two so far.
Can they be completed in time? The Arbor Oaks job is a cautionary example. Contractors have completed only 30% of the job in half the allotted time.
Six DR Projects Now Predicted to Miss 2/28/27 Deadline
According to HCFCD’s latest spreadsheet, the six projects below will miss their deadlines. Construction bids on four of the six have not even been awarded yet (Genoa, Kluge, Isom, Dinner).
HCFCD is not moving dirt on ANY of the projects in this second group yet, though a construction trailer is on the East TC Jester Site and clearing reportedly started last week.
Less than 10 months remain on the game clock for the 11 DR projects.
How Reliable are Completion-Date Estimates?
But how much can we depend on HCFCD projections given delays and promises to date? We should remember that under Petersen, HCFCD attempted to build the Mercer SWDB on an expedited basis in ONE YEAR. It took FOUR!
Is There Flexibility in Deadline?
The Texas General Land Office (GLO), which administers US Department of Housing and Urban Development CDBG funds in Texas, has given itself a year after 2/28/27 to close out all DR jobs.
GLO might be able to give up a few months of that year – if projects are close to completion. For instance, several projects in the second group are currently projected to miss the deadline by less than three months.
However, GLO needs the rest of that year to do its work. Beyond that year, it would literally take an act of Congress to extend the deadline. Good luck with that, given the current political gridlock in Washington.
All Construction Bids Lower than Estimates So Far
Close examination of the HCFCD CDBG spreadsheet shows that ALL DR construction bids so far have come in lower than engineers’ estimates. This could create a budget surplus.
A GLO spokesperson says that in cases like that, the money could be shifted to other projects within the group that might have a deficit. Potentially, extra projects might also be possible.
However, at this stage of the game, finding a shovel-ready project that could be bundled into the DR group would be difficult. Any surplus would likely be grouped into a Disaster Recovery Reallocation Program (DRRP) at some future date.
We saw this recently when the GLO allocated unspent funds from disasters before Harvey to Harvey-related projects. That sweetened HCFCD’s DR pot by more than $100 million.
At this very moment, county and GLO officials are scrambling to identify eligible projects. However, construction experts I talked to doubt there’s time to do them before the deadline – even if one or more could be identified.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/4/2026
3170 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Still Time to Sign Petition Against Upstream Floodplain Development
5/02/26 – There’s still time to sign the petition against Scarborough’s 5300+ acre floodplain development upstream from the Lake Houston Area between Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork. One of the region’s leading hydrologists told me that if it gets developed, it would be like aiming a firehose at Humble and Kingwood.
Why This Land Should Not Be Developed
This is one of the most flood-prone areas in the entire Houston region. See this 30-second video of wetlands that lace the area.
Also see FEMA’s pre-Atlas-14 flood map below.
New flood maps show the situation is even worse than it appears above. The area is about half the size of Kingwood and exceedingly flat.
Near the confluence, dry land would be under at least 25 feet of water in another flood like Harvey.
Just this morning, at 8 AM after a mere 4 inches of rain, the Harris County Flood Warning System showed the river was in danger of overflowing near the bridge – the only such channel in the area.
This is just a dangerous place to build, at least in my opinion.
GLO Backing Developer
Yet strangely, the Texas General Land Office, which is responsible for $14 billion dollars of HUD flood-mitigation money in Texas, is a financial partner in the development. Even worse, the GLO refuses to explain why, what the terms of its investment are, and how much of your tax money it has invested. Print out the poster below, and share it with your friends and family.
Please Sign Petition NOW
But above all, if you haven’t yet signed the petition protesting this development, do it NOW!
A Friendswood executive once told me they looked at extending Kingwood Drive across this property but gave up on the idea because it would have cost too much to do it safely.
So, read the details of the petition at Change.org and please sign it. It will only take a minute and could save your home someday. Not to mention, a lot of your tax dollars now.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/2/2026
3168 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.