2/6/2025 – Fireworks erupted in Harris County Commissioners Court today over the 2018 Flood Bond and Subdivision Drainage shortfalls. It was a rare display of bipartisan outrage.
All four commissioners and the county judge expressed concerns about budget shortfalls. The County Engineer, the Head of the Flood Control District, the County Budget Manager and the County Administrator all took turns in the crosshairs when it became clear that the County didn’t have enough money to deliver flood-mitigation projects promised long ago.
That said, the cost of subdivision drainage projects alone increased from $451 million to $590 million since 2018. Comparable figures were not provided for flood-bond projects although the July 2024 Flood Bond Update alluded to 33 projects that have “uncertainty about whether current funding levels are sufficient to take the associated projects through construction.”
Reasons cited for the subdivision drainage project budget shortfall included 30-35% inflation in the construction sector, scope creep, additional projects, and adoption of higher Atlas-14 rainfall standards after passage of the flood bond. Atlas 14 requires projects to handle larger rainfall events than the previous standards.
Reasons cited for the bond-project funding uncertainty included “inflationary pressures and the rising cost of property acquisition, as well as potential schedule impacts due to inclement weather, supply chain pressures, and regulatory changes.”
“An Abysmal Failure” and Loss of Trust
During the contentious 24-minute discussion, the County Judge said that the county needs another flood bond.
Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis said that he would campaign against it. Ellis also accused the County Engineer of ignoring the county’s equity plan.
“This is an abysmal failure to deliver on the bond issue.”
Rodney Ellis, Harris County Precinct 1 Commissioner
Ellis also said, “It would be very challenging to go to voters in Precinct One [and ask them] to ever trust this county with money again … even to trust me. … This is an abomination.”
We haven’t heard the last of this. Ellis addressing the county engineer said, “So, you would have a $150 million hole before you discovered there was a problem. I’m just curious about all of the bureaucracy we put in place. I’m a person who voted to have a county administrator, our deputy county administrators … paying the best money, if not in the state, in the country for these folks.”
Ellis continued, “I’m curious to know, when did the county manager know about it? When did the deputy county administrator know about it, and when did the Budget Office know about it? When did you all discover it? Is it tracked by anybody?”
“Major Crisis” with No Sense of Urgency
Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey, PE, said, “This is a major crisis. I sense no urgency from flood control. I sense no urgency from the county engineer’s office. And I don’t sense any urgency from the county administrator.”
Ramsey also said, “We need to go back and take a look at it, but there needs to be an adult in room to be sure that we get honest answers back.”
“Utter Dismay. Frustration. Shock.”
Normally restrained Precinct 4 Commissioner Lesley Briones said, “I share my colleague’s complete and utter dismay. Frustration. Shock.” She emphasized that the county needed to find solutions for both the subdivision drainage projects and the flood bond.
“This is not OK,” she said. “And we need to get it done with a sense of urgency.” Then in a thinly veiled threat, she added, “If we’re not being clear, I don’t want to go back to the policy about wages. But when we say something, we mean it.” Commissioners recently voted department heads large pay increases.
Before finishing, Briones emphasized that Flood Bond Projects, not just subdivision drainage projects needed to be completed also.
Motion to Revisit Issue on March 27 Unanimously Approved
In the end, Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia introduced a motion to direct the Office of Management and Budget “to work with flood control, county engineering, and any relevant departments to return to court on March 27 with proposed options and recommendations using any and all county resources for closing the shortfall on the Harris County Engineering Department Subdivision Drainage Program and ensuring the implementation of the flood bond framework adopted by Commissioners Court.”
Commissioner Ramsey offered a friendly amendment. “The financial analysis should include, at a minimum, the entire program showing all projects completed. Projects under construction with any potential changes in contract. Active projects awaiting funding. Remaining available funds for all projects now that the project budgets have been increased.”
The motion with the amendment carried unanimously.
Video of Meeting
You can view the entire discussion and vote on the motion at this link. Click on Departments (Part 2 of 3). Then scroll forward to 3:24:01. You’re looking for item 217.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/6/2025
2718 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20250206-CC-court.jpg?fit=1100%2C624&ssl=16241100adminadmin2025-02-06 22:14:092025-02-07 13:08:41Flood Bond, Subdivision Drainage Shortfalls Prompt Harsh Words From Commissioners
2/5/2025 – The Cypress Creek Drainage Improvement District (CCDID) just published its first “impact report.” The report comes about a year and a half after Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed into law House Bill 5334 – authored by State Rep. Sam Harless – which created the special purpose district to address flooding in the Cypress Creek Watershed. Below is a summary of several key accomplishments from the report. And what CCDID hopes to accomplish in the near future.
Mission and Vision
The group’s mission is to reduce future flooding and increase flood resilience in the Cypress Creek Watershed through a comprehensive mitigation and funding plan. They hope to do that by providing a unified voice for all the residents, businesses, organizations and elected officials of the watershed.
To put the need for a unified voice into perspective, the watershed comprises 154 local water districts. It has 8 representatives in the Texas House, 5 state senators, 5 county commissioners (in Harris and Waller), 5 U.S. Congressional representatives, and 2 U.S. Senators. It also works with Harris County Flood Control, the Texas Water Development Board, chambers of commerce and more.
Strategic Directives
The group’s 2024 Impact Report lists several strategic directives:
Becoming a trusted source of factual information
Unifying all the groups working to improve the watershed and providing a single voice for them
Expanding community outreach
Engaging the public with community meetings
Building support among elected officials, private businesses, school districts, cities and citizens
Developing an action plan to share with potential financial supporters
Meeting with supporters to provide updates and answer questions
Building a volunteer advisory group.
Accomplishments in Year One
To date the CCDID has:
Appointed temporary directors
Created a website
Held town hall meetings throughout the watershed
Conducted meetings with Harris County and the Harris County Flood Control District
Held organizational meetings
Started efforts to formalize district boundaries and create maps
Solicited financial support
Started developing an initial resiliency plan
Next Up
In 2025, it will:
Prepare a status report for the legislature
Complete the resiliency plan
Continue fund raising, workshops and townhall meetings
Develop outreach initiatives.
Plan for election of permanent directors.
CCDID has already identified strategies to reduce flooding and planned a state-of-the-art geographical information system (GIS). GIS would incorporate elements of the resiliency plan; demographics; analyses; current and future projects; watershed information; potential partners; officials; and contact information at the local, state and federal levels.
Altogether, the CCDID Impact Report for 2024 is well written, well art directed, and easy to understand at a glance.
Unified Voice Needed in Lake Houston Area
After Harvey, Dr. Guy Sconzo, then Humble ISD superintendent, formed a volunteer task force to bring together disparate interests in the Lake Houston Area. However, the task force dissipated after Sconzo’s untimely death. And with the loss of the task force, the many elements within the Lake Houston area lost their unified voice.
Certainly, there’s strength in numbers.
If nothing else, such a group makes it easier for organizations such as HCFCD to address the needs of a watershed.
The Lake Houston Area could certainly use something like the Cypress Creek Drainage Improvement District. Since the formation of the CCDID a year and a half ago, funding for the watershed has soared. The District has established itself as a unified voice that speaks for all the interests in the watershed. If nothing else, it gave needs in the area a critical level of visibility.
The San Jacinto Watershed no longer has anything comparable. And funding has suffered as a consequence.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/CCDID-GIS-Example.jpg?fit=1100%2C829&ssl=18291100adminadmin2025-02-05 19:29:332025-02-05 22:37:01Cypress Creek Drainage Improvement District Provides Unified Voice for Watershed
2/4/25 – First Street Foundation released a new study today as part of its 12th National Risk Assessment. “Property Prices in Peril” estimates that real estate values could lose $1.4 trillion over the next 30 years due to climate-related risks. That number is unadjusted for inflation.
First Street specializes in climate risk financial modeling. Its clients include financial institutions, companies and governments. The organization announced the research in a webinar this morning. I will summarize it below.
Summary of Research
The basic premise: Homeownership has long been the primary pathway to wealth creation in the U.S. Prospective homeowners decide where to live by balancing quality of life and cost of living. That drives home value increases and decreases.
Crucial Role of Insurance Costs
But climate change is now causing many to recalibrate that value proposition as insurance costs now represent a higher proportion of mortgage costs than ever before. And First Street predicts premiums will continue to rise until they become actuarily sound.
Projected insurance increases
The First Street presentation began with several slides on insurance rates and factors affecting them (losses, predicted risk increases, government regs, etc.). In some areas, monthly insurance payments could soon comprise 25% of total home payments. First Street predicts that…
Huge increases in insurance premiums will drive up the cost of home ownership and make homes in risky areas less affordable for many.
In addition, money paid out to insurance companies does not appreciate like the home itself does. As a consequence, a lower percentage of a family’s total income will be available to build wealth from home ownership in the future.
Diagram showing how climate change and insurance rates affect home values and demand
Secondary Impacts
Further, the authors found that “The implications for local economies extend far beyond direct housing market effects to regional GDP, household financial stability, and public services.”
“Communities facing declining property values due to climate risks confront multiple economic threats,” says First Street. “Falling home equity reduces household wealth and borrowing capacity, constraining consumer spending and local economic activity.”
“Lower property assessments significantly impact state and local government revenues, with property taxes accounting for over 30% of local government funding nationwide. This reduction in revenue can trigger a vicious cycle, where limited funds hinder investments in critical climate adaptation infrastructure just when it is most urgently needed— further exacerbating the decline in property values.”
“States like Texas and Florida, which rely heavily on property taxes due to their no-income-tax structure, are increasingly exposed to fiscal risks as climate change threatens their tax base by impacting property values.”
Flooding Most Widespread Risk
“Flooding will emerge as the most geographically widespread driver of climate migration, leading 11.9 million Americans to relocate by 2055,” says the study.
“This migration pattern affects every region of the U.S., from coastal communities facing sea level rise and storm surge to inland areas facing fluvial flooding from rivers and streams to urban areas subject to pluvial flooding from heavy rainfall events,”
First Street projections indicate that “over one-third of U.S. counties and more than half the population are exposed to frequent, chronic flooding from precipitation alone.”
Effects of Climate Migration Most Apparent in Small Areas
Instead of looking at national and state trends, the First Street study looked at every census tract in the county. It found that housing choices at that micro-economic level are increasingly being driven by awareness of climate risks such as flooding.
Five Market Segments Illuminate Different Climate-Migration Patterns
Looking forward, First Street modeling segments neighborhoods into five categories:
Climate Abandonment – 26% of neighborhoods/census tracts, show sustained population loss due to climate change.
Risky Growth – 31% of neighborhoods continued to grow despite high risk, suggesting other strong economic or social drivers.
Tipping Point – 27% of neighborhoods show initial growth followed by decline as rising insurance premiums and climate impacts reach unsustainable levels.
Economic Decline – 11% of neighborhoods lose population despite low risk and stable insurance rates, suggesting economic factors, not climate, are driving decline.
Climate Resilient – 5% of neighborhoods attract population growth with low risk and stable insurance rates.
The study found five counties in Texas fell into the “risky growth” category: Fort Bend, Denton, Williamson, Travis and Montgomery.
For More Information
To learn more, visit the First Street Foundation website where you will find links to:
For instance, the study did not take into account immigration or variation in tax rates compared to other states.
I’m also a bit skeptical of any study that tries to project current trends 30 years into the future. Fifty years dealing with market research taught me how quickly trends can change.
Despite those concerns, the study makes excellent reading. It also makes a valuable contribution to our understanding of flooding and how it could impact the future of the Houston region.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/4/25
2716 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20250204-Projected-insurance-increases.jpg?fit=1100%2C754&ssl=17541100adminadmin2025-02-04 18:00:302025-02-04 18:27:57Climate-Related Risks Could Reduce Real Estate Values by $1.4 Trillion in Next 30 Years
Flood Bond, Subdivision Drainage Shortfalls Prompt Harsh Words From Commissioners
2/6/2025 – Fireworks erupted in Harris County Commissioners Court today over the 2018 Flood Bond and Subdivision Drainage shortfalls. It was a rare display of bipartisan outrage.
All four commissioners and the county judge expressed concerns about budget shortfalls. The County Engineer, the Head of the Flood Control District, the County Budget Manager and the County Administrator all took turns in the crosshairs when it became clear that the County didn’t have enough money to deliver flood-mitigation projects promised long ago.
Budget Shortfall and Contributing Factors
Subdivision drainage projects used to be a subset of projects within the flood bond. However, Commissioners formally transferred them to the Office of the County Engineer in April 2021 (Item 21-1833 in the 4/27/21 Commissioners Court meeting).
That said, the cost of subdivision drainage projects alone increased from $451 million to $590 million since 2018. Comparable figures were not provided for flood-bond projects although the July 2024 Flood Bond Update alluded to 33 projects that have “uncertainty about whether current funding levels are sufficient to take the associated projects through construction.”
Reasons cited for the subdivision drainage project budget shortfall included 30-35% inflation in the construction sector, scope creep, additional projects, and adoption of higher Atlas-14 rainfall standards after passage of the flood bond. Atlas 14 requires projects to handle larger rainfall events than the previous standards.
Reasons cited for the bond-project funding uncertainty included “inflationary pressures and the rising cost of property acquisition, as well as potential schedule impacts due to inclement weather, supply chain pressures, and regulatory changes.”
“An Abysmal Failure” and Loss of Trust
During the contentious 24-minute discussion, the County Judge said that the county needs another flood bond.
Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis said that he would campaign against it. Ellis also accused the County Engineer of ignoring the county’s equity plan.
Ellis also said, “It would be very challenging to go to voters in Precinct One [and ask them] to ever trust this county with money again … even to trust me. … This is an abomination.”
We haven’t heard the last of this. Ellis addressing the county engineer said, “So, you would have a $150 million hole before you discovered there was a problem. I’m just curious about all of the bureaucracy we put in place. I’m a person who voted to have a county administrator, our deputy county administrators … paying the best money, if not in the state, in the country for these folks.”
Ellis continued, “I’m curious to know, when did the county manager know about it? When did the deputy county administrator know about it, and when did the Budget Office know about it? When did you all discover it? Is it tracked by anybody?”
“Major Crisis” with No Sense of Urgency
Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey, PE, said, “This is a major crisis. I sense no urgency from flood control. I sense no urgency from the county engineer’s office. And I don’t sense any urgency from the county administrator.”
Ramsey also said, “We need to go back and take a look at it, but there needs to be an adult in room to be sure that we get honest answers back.”
“Utter Dismay. Frustration. Shock.”
Normally restrained Precinct 4 Commissioner Lesley Briones said, “I share my colleague’s complete and utter dismay. Frustration. Shock.” She emphasized that the county needed to find solutions for both the subdivision drainage projects and the flood bond.
“This is not OK,” she said. “And we need to get it done with a sense of urgency.” Then in a thinly veiled threat, she added, “If we’re not being clear, I don’t want to go back to the policy about wages. But when we say something, we mean it.” Commissioners recently voted department heads large pay increases.
Before finishing, Briones emphasized that Flood Bond Projects, not just subdivision drainage projects needed to be completed also.
However, no one could say exactly where all the projects stood. The Flood Control District’s Active Projects page stopped working long ago. The last “Completed Projects” Report on the District’s website is dated 12/14/2020. And the frequency of flood-bond updates has declined from monthly to annually.
Motion to Revisit Issue on March 27 Unanimously Approved
In the end, Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia introduced a motion to direct the Office of Management and Budget “to work with flood control, county engineering, and any relevant departments to return to court on March 27 with proposed options and recommendations using any and all county resources for closing the shortfall on the Harris County Engineering Department Subdivision Drainage Program and ensuring the implementation of the flood bond framework adopted by Commissioners Court.”
Commissioner Ramsey offered a friendly amendment. “The financial analysis should include, at a minimum, the entire program showing all projects completed. Projects under construction with any potential changes in contract. Active projects awaiting funding. Remaining available funds for all projects now that the project budgets have been increased.”
The motion with the amendment carried unanimously.
Video of Meeting
You can view the entire discussion and vote on the motion at this link. Click on Departments (Part 2 of 3). Then scroll forward to 3:24:01. You’re looking for item 217.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/6/2025
2718 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Cypress Creek Drainage Improvement District Provides Unified Voice for Watershed
2/5/2025 – The Cypress Creek Drainage Improvement District (CCDID) just published its first “impact report.” The report comes about a year and a half after Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed into law House Bill 5334 – authored by State Rep. Sam Harless – which created the special purpose district to address flooding in the Cypress Creek Watershed. Below is a summary of several key accomplishments from the report. And what CCDID hopes to accomplish in the near future.
Mission and Vision
The group’s mission is to reduce future flooding and increase flood resilience in the Cypress Creek Watershed through a comprehensive mitigation and funding plan. They hope to do that by providing a unified voice for all the residents, businesses, organizations and elected officials of the watershed.
To put the need for a unified voice into perspective, the watershed comprises 154 local water districts. It has 8 representatives in the Texas House, 5 state senators, 5 county commissioners (in Harris and Waller), 5 U.S. Congressional representatives, and 2 U.S. Senators. It also works with Harris County Flood Control, the Texas Water Development Board, chambers of commerce and more.
Strategic Directives
The group’s 2024 Impact Report lists several strategic directives:
Accomplishments in Year One
To date the CCDID has:
Next Up
In 2025, it will:
CCDID has already identified strategies to reduce flooding and planned a state-of-the-art geographical information system (GIS). GIS would incorporate elements of the resiliency plan; demographics; analyses; current and future projects; watershed information; potential partners; officials; and contact information at the local, state and federal levels.
Altogether, the CCDID Impact Report for 2024 is well written, well art directed, and easy to understand at a glance.
Unified Voice Needed in Lake Houston Area
After Harvey, Dr. Guy Sconzo, then Humble ISD superintendent, formed a volunteer task force to bring together disparate interests in the Lake Houston Area. However, the task force dissipated after Sconzo’s untimely death. And with the loss of the task force, the many elements within the Lake Houston area lost their unified voice.
Certainly, there’s strength in numbers.
The Lake Houston Area could certainly use something like the Cypress Creek Drainage Improvement District. Since the formation of the CCDID a year and a half ago, funding for the watershed has soared. The District has established itself as a unified voice that speaks for all the interests in the watershed. If nothing else, it gave needs in the area a critical level of visibility.
The San Jacinto Watershed no longer has anything comparable. And funding has suffered as a consequence.
We could certainly use something like the Cypress Creek Drainage Improvement District.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/5/25
2717 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Climate-Related Risks Could Reduce Real Estate Values by $1.4 Trillion in Next 30 Years
2/4/25 – First Street Foundation released a new study today as part of its 12th National Risk Assessment. “Property Prices in Peril” estimates that real estate values could lose $1.4 trillion over the next 30 years due to climate-related risks. That number is unadjusted for inflation.
First Street specializes in climate risk financial modeling. Its clients include financial institutions, companies and governments. The organization announced the research in a webinar this morning. I will summarize it below.
Summary of Research
The basic premise: Homeownership has long been the primary pathway to wealth creation in the U.S. Prospective homeowners decide where to live by balancing quality of life and cost of living. That drives home value increases and decreases.
Crucial Role of Insurance Costs
But climate change is now causing many to recalibrate that value proposition as insurance costs now represent a higher proportion of mortgage costs than ever before. And First Street predicts premiums will continue to rise until they become actuarily sound.
The First Street presentation began with several slides on insurance rates and factors affecting them (losses, predicted risk increases, government regs, etc.). In some areas, monthly insurance payments could soon comprise 25% of total home payments. First Street predicts that…
In addition, money paid out to insurance companies does not appreciate like the home itself does. As a consequence, a lower percentage of a family’s total income will be available to build wealth from home ownership in the future.
Secondary Impacts
Further, the authors found that “The implications for local economies extend far beyond direct housing market effects to regional GDP, household financial stability, and public services.”
“Communities facing declining property values due to climate risks confront multiple economic threats,” says First Street. “Falling home equity reduces household wealth and borrowing capacity, constraining consumer spending and local economic activity.”
“Lower property assessments significantly impact state and local government revenues, with property taxes accounting for over 30% of local government funding nationwide. This reduction in revenue can trigger a vicious cycle, where limited funds hinder investments in critical climate adaptation infrastructure just when it is most urgently needed— further exacerbating the decline in property values.”
“States like Texas and Florida, which rely heavily on property taxes due to their no-income-tax structure, are increasingly exposed to fiscal risks as climate change threatens their tax base by impacting property values.”
Flooding Most Widespread Risk
“Flooding will emerge as the most geographically widespread driver of climate migration, leading 11.9 million Americans to relocate by 2055,” says the study.
“This migration pattern affects every region of the U.S., from coastal communities facing sea level rise and storm surge to inland areas facing fluvial flooding from rivers and streams to urban areas subject to pluvial flooding from heavy rainfall events,”
First Street projections indicate that “over one-third of U.S. counties and more than half the population are exposed to frequent, chronic flooding from precipitation alone.”
Effects of Climate Migration Most Apparent in Small Areas
Instead of looking at national and state trends, the First Street study looked at every census tract in the county. It found that housing choices at that micro-economic level are increasingly being driven by awareness of climate risks such as flooding.
Five Market Segments Illuminate Different Climate-Migration Patterns
Looking forward, First Street modeling segments neighborhoods into five categories:
The study found five counties in Texas fell into the “risky growth” category: Fort Bend, Denton, Williamson, Travis and Montgomery.
For More Information
To learn more, visit the First Street Foundation website where you will find links to:
Rehak’s Take
All in all, the authors made an excellent case for “climate caution.” That in itself could affect migration and home prices.
But the study did not address many of the factors that have made Texas one of the fastest growing states in the country, despite the fact that more people live in Texas floodplains than live in 30 states.
For instance, the study did not take into account immigration or variation in tax rates compared to other states.
I’m also a bit skeptical of any study that tries to project current trends 30 years into the future. Fifty years dealing with market research taught me how quickly trends can change.
Despite those concerns, the study makes excellent reading. It also makes a valuable contribution to our understanding of flooding and how it could impact the future of the Houston region.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/4/25
2716 Days since Hurricane Harvey