6/16/2026 (updated throughout day) – At 10AM EDT today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1 for the 2026 hurricane season. At 4PM, NHC predicted the center of a tropical storm would pass Galveston around mid-day on Wednesday, 6/17/26.
Infrared satellite images show a wide band of deep tropical moisture building parallel to the coast.
Infrared satellite image from NOAA as of 8:11 AM 6/16/26
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, while the chances of tropical storm formation are increasing, if one does form it will likely be weak and short lived.
However, the potential for very heavy rainfall and flash flooding remains. The National Weather Service predicts a moderate risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding today and Wednesday.
Guidance for the track of of any tropical storm that may develop remains uncertain due to the weak and broad structure of the system.
Today
Models predict thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall near the coast and spread inland through the midday hours. How far inland remains in question, but areas south of I-10 look to have the best chances for heavy rainfall and flash flooding through the morning hours. Activity will likely decrease into the mid to late afternoon hours similar to yesterday.
KHGX Composite Reflectivity image from RadarScope Pro as of 8:41 AM 6/16/26. That storm over Conroe dumped 3.9 inches, and2.9 inches at the Lake Conroe Dam in a few hours this morning.
Wednesday-Thursday
According to NHC, a tropical system will move ENE/NE parallel to the coast. And according to Lindner, a track near the coast or just offshore would focus the heavier rainfall south of I-10 on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, a track further inland would bring the threat for heavy rainfall into at least the I-10 corridor.
Rainfall Predictions
Lindner forecasts widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches along and south of I-10 with isolated totals of 6-10 inches through early Wednesday.
Hourly rainfall rates of 2-5 inches will remain likely with the heavier storms. He believes this will lead to rapid onset flash flooding.
North of I-10 rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are most likely through today. However, grounds are saturated and any rainfall will convert to runoff quickly.
Recent rains have caused rises on rivers. Lindner says that additional rainfall during the next 48 hours will potentially bring some watersheds to flood stage by late week. Most creeks and bayous across Harris County are doing well as of this evening with the exception of areas in NW Harris County up to the Woodlands. But intense rainfall rates tomorrow could result in significant and rapid rises.
At 6 PM Lake Houston was at 42.68 feet and releasing water near maximum capacity.
Lake Conroe is still at 201.23 feet and releasing only about 500 CFS.
Tides
Vacationers should watch coastal tides and rip currents. They will increase today into Wednesday as the tropical system moves into the Houston area. Current forecasts keep water levels 1-2 feet above normal (3-4 feet above barnacle level). Minor coastal flooding remains possible during high tide into Wednesday.
Winds
Winds will increase across the coastal waters and coastal counties today into Wednesday. Expect widespread 20-30 mph and gusts to 40 mph as seas build. Marine conditions will become hazardous as the coastal tropical system moves across the region.
6/15/26 – The Taylor Gully-Woodridge Project in Kingwood is now in construction. That’s good news for the hundreds of families who flooded repeatedly, largely due upstream clearcutting for construction.
How Long Will Construction Take and Other Questions
Many have asked me how long the project will take, so I submitted a FOIA request for the contract documents.
The short answer: December 2027 … if all goes according to plan.
Harris County Commissioners approved Brice Construction and Design LLC’s $29.4 million contract in their March 31, 2026, meeting. The contractor has 552 calendar days with another 64 days for inclement weather. That’s 616 days total. From the start of the contract, that would put completion in December 2027. So, we’ll have to go through two hurricane seasons before we see promised flood-risk reductions.
Readers have also asked about the scope of the project, where they will start, and how the contractors are progressing.
Widening and deepening approximately two miles of Taylor Gully.
Building a 421.6 acre-foot detention basin on the Woodridge Village property.
The County bought Woodridge from Perry Homes in 2021. Part of it was already excavated under a previous “Excavation and Removal” (E&R) contract with Sprint Sand & Clay. Under an E&R contract, HCFCD gives a contractor the right to remove dirt from an area where a detention basin will go for only a $1000. The contractor then makes a profit by selling the dirt for beneficial uses on the open market.
For the detention basin, the current contractor must:
Excavate an additional 1,002,639 cubic yards of material
Create a wet-bottom basin with 30-65 foot wide berms and backslope swales
Construct a limestone aggregate maintenance access ramp
Build a 30-foot wide bottom shelf
Establish a 52-foot wide vegetative shelf for wetlands planting
Construct a wet pool 6 feet deep
Connect the basin with inflow/outflow culverts to the existing basin at the east end of Woodridge.
Basin Plan for Woodridge Village Portion of Project
For the channel conveyance improvements, the contractor must:
Lower the existing flow line of the channel by 4 feet by excavating 54,085 cubic yards
Install 10,306 linear feet of a 20’x4′ concrete low flow channel
Adopted alternative for concrete-lined low-flow channel.
The contractor must also build a:
Concrete maintenance access ramp
156-foot-long drop structure at the downstream end of the project
New clear-span bridge at Rustling Elms to replace the culverts which back water up during floods.
Compartment 2 will be considered in future. It is not part of this project.
Where They will Start
The contract documents contain a Q&A section with questions submitted by bidders buried in approximately 600 pages.
At least one bidder (we don’t know who) expressed reservations about completing a project of this size in 616 days. HCFCD responded that it expected the contractor to work on both parts of the project simultaneously. See below.
Screen capture from Q&A Per Addendum No. 1 to contract
…But Work to Date Has Focused Only on Detention Basin
Regardless, in the first 2.5 months, Brice has focused only on the detention basin.
It took Brice several weeks to mobilize for the job. After being awarded the contract at the end of March, 2026, I first noticed activity on the site around mid-May. That’s when the contractor started breaking up old storm sewer pipe on the site.
How Woodridgelookedbefore Brice started.How same area looked around 2 PM on Friday 6/12/26.
Brice appears to have:
Cleaned up the site
Broken up pipe, which they will likely use later
Knocked down some trees at the far end of the project area
Smoothed out the western edge of the pond
Piled the dirt onsite rather than hauling it away now.
See below.
Reverse angle shot, also taken around 2 PM on 6/12/26
Meanwhile I saw no work on the Taylor Gully portion of the project.
Taylor Gully. Looking at the old Rustling Elms culvert bridge in the foreground and the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge by the water tower at the top of frame.Taylor Gully Project ends at concrete in center of image between Mills Branch (under camera) and Maple Bend (far bridge). I spotted no construction equipment anywhere along the entire length of the channel.
Contract Documents
If you have other questions, consult the contract documents below. HCFCD sent me all the components of Brice’s contract in a file too large to post. So, I split the file up into the sections below for your convenience.
6/14/2026 – The entire Houston region is under a flash flood watch until Wednesday morning, 6/17/26, according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s Meteorologist.
Weak tropical circulation from northeastern Mexico is lifting northward into south Texas on Monday and Tuesday while a weak front from the north stalls over our area.
Deep tropical moisture colliding with the front will create intense downpours at times. “Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches will be possible with isolated totals of 6-8 inches and this may need to be increased,” says Lindner. “Some models suggest upwards of 9-11 inches of rainfall in isolated locations by Tuesday morning.”
Lindner warns people not to try to figure out the exact locations for the heaviest rain, but instead to focus on the overall potential.
The models are increasingly signaling heavy rains and flash flooding. “This sort of setup in a tropical air mass can result in rapid onset flash flooding with significant hourly rainfall rates and totals,” he says. So, stay tuned to forecasts before you venture out.
What is Flash Flooding?
Flooding is often categorized by how quickly it develops, what causes it, and how long it lasts. The key distinction is that flash flooding happens very rapidly, often with little or no warning.
It begins within minutes to a few hours after intense rainfall, a dam failure, or another sudden water release.
Key characteristics include:
Develops in less than 6 hours, often in 30 minutes to 3 hours.
Usually caused by very intense rainfall over a small area.
Water rises rapidly and can move at high velocities.
Often occurs in:
Urban areas with lots of pavement
Small watersheds
Gullies, and normally dry channels
Don’t drive into water where you can’t see the road. Turn around don’t drown.
Why It’s Dangerous
Flash flooding can happen with little warning time. Fast-moving water can sweep away vehicles and people. It accounts for a large share of flood-related deaths.
We’ve had several recent examples in Houston. During parts of the 2015 Memorial Day Flood and 2016 Tax Day Flood, some bayous and streets flooded within hours of intense rainfall, producing flash-flood conditions.
Other Types of Flooding
Hydrologists distinguish flash flooding from several other types of flooding. Houstonians should know the differences, so they can better understand weather warnings.
River (Fluvial) Flooding
Caused when rivers, creeks, or bayous exceed their banks. It:
Develops over hours, days, or even weeks.
Usually results from rainfall over a large watershed.
Occurs when rainfall overwhelms storm drains, roadside ditches, and local drainage systems.
Common in highly developed areas.
Can occur even when nearby rivers stay within their banks.
Often accompanies flash flooding.
Water collects in streets, underpasses, and low spots.
Many Houston-area street floods are urban flooding events rather than river floods.
Coastal Flooding
Caused by seawater moving onto normally dry land from:
Storm surge from hurricanes
High tides
Sea-level rise
Most common near bays and coastlines.
Saltwater flooding can damage infrastructure and ecosystems.
Example: Coastal and bay areas during Hurricane Ike.
Pluvial Flooding
Occurs directly from rainfall accumulating on the ground before it reaches a stream or drainage system
Can occur far from rivers.
Happens when rainfall exceeds infiltration and drainage capacity.
Frequently overlaps with urban flooding.
Example: A subdivision may flood because rainwater ponds in streets and yards even though no nearby creek overflows.
Backwater Flooding
Caused when high water downstream slows drainage upstream.
Common in flat areas with low gradients.
Water “backs up” into tributaries, ditches, and neighborhoods.
Often worsens flooding duration
Examples: Lower reaches of Spring Creek, Cypress Creek, and portions of the San Jacinto River can experience backwater effects because of the region’s very low slope and interactions with Lake Houston.
Lake and Other Reports
As of 4PM on Sunday 6/14/26, Lake Conroe is not pre-releasing any water.
Be on high alert until the flash flood watch expires. Check weather forecasts frequently.
To see how rainfall accumulations affect rivers, streams and channels around you, check the Harris County Flood Warning System at https://www.harriscountyfws.org. When you visit the home page, you can see rainfall accumulations around the region. Click on “Channels” in the upper left to see the status of streams, rivers, and bayous near you.
Tropical Storm Chances Increasing
6/16/2026 (updated throughout day) – At 10AM EDT today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1 for the 2026 hurricane season. At 4PM, NHC predicted the center of a tropical storm would pass Galveston around mid-day on Wednesday, 6/17/26.
Infrared satellite images show a wide band of deep tropical moisture building parallel to the coast.
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, while the chances of tropical storm formation are increasing, if one does form it will likely be weak and short lived.
However, the potential for very heavy rainfall and flash flooding remains. The National Weather Service predicts a moderate risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding today and Wednesday.
Guidance for the track of of any tropical storm that may develop remains uncertain due to the weak and broad structure of the system.
Today
Models predict thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall near the coast and spread inland through the midday hours. How far inland remains in question, but areas south of I-10 look to have the best chances for heavy rainfall and flash flooding through the morning hours. Activity will likely decrease into the mid to late afternoon hours similar to yesterday.
Wednesday-Thursday
According to NHC, a tropical system will move ENE/NE parallel to the coast. And according to Lindner, a track near the coast or just offshore would focus the heavier rainfall south of I-10 on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, a track further inland would bring the threat for heavy rainfall into at least the I-10 corridor.
Rainfall Predictions
Lindner forecasts widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches along and south of I-10 with isolated totals of 6-10 inches through early Wednesday.
Hourly rainfall rates of 2-5 inches will remain likely with the heavier storms. He believes this will lead to rapid onset flash flooding.
North of I-10 rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are most likely through today. However, grounds are saturated and any rainfall will convert to runoff quickly.
River and Stream Forecast
Recent rains have caused rises on rivers. Lindner says that additional rainfall during the next 48 hours will potentially bring some watersheds to flood stage by late week. Most creeks and bayous across Harris County are doing well as of this evening with the exception of areas in NW Harris County up to the Woodlands. But intense rainfall rates tomorrow could result in significant and rapid rises.
At 6 PM Lake Houston was at 42.68 feet and releasing water near maximum capacity.
Lake Conroe is still at 201.23 feet and releasing only about 500 CFS.
Tides
Vacationers should watch coastal tides and rip currents. They will increase today into Wednesday as the tropical system moves into the Houston area. Current forecasts keep water levels 1-2 feet above normal (3-4 feet above barnacle level). Minor coastal flooding remains possible during high tide into Wednesday.
Winds
Winds will increase across the coastal waters and coastal counties today into Wednesday. Expect widespread 20-30 mph and gusts to 40 mph as seas build. Marine conditions will become hazardous as the coastal tropical system moves across the region.
Stay Weather Alert
For the latest information in fast changing situations such as this, consult the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center and Harris County Flood Warning System. Stay alert and be prepared.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/16/2026
3213 Days since Harvey
Update: Taylor Gully-Woodridge Progress, Contract
6/15/26 – The Taylor Gully-Woodridge Project in Kingwood is now in construction. That’s good news for the hundreds of families who flooded repeatedly, largely due upstream clearcutting for construction.
How Long Will Construction Take and Other Questions
Many have asked me how long the project will take, so I submitted a FOIA request for the contract documents.
The short answer: December 2027 … if all goes according to plan.
Harris County Commissioners approved Brice Construction and Design LLC’s $29.4 million contract in their March 31, 2026, meeting. The contractor has 552 calendar days with another 64 days for inclement weather. That’s 616 days total. From the start of the contract, that would put completion in December 2027. So, we’ll have to go through two hurricane seasons before we see promised flood-risk reductions.
Readers have also asked about the scope of the project, where they will start, and how the contractors are progressing.
Scope of Contract
The contract has two large components:
The County bought Woodridge from Perry Homes in 2021. Part of it was already excavated under a previous “Excavation and Removal” (E&R) contract with Sprint Sand & Clay. Under an E&R contract, HCFCD gives a contractor the right to remove dirt from an area where a detention basin will go for only a $1000. The contractor then makes a profit by selling the dirt for beneficial uses on the open market.
For the detention basin, the current contractor must:
For the channel conveyance improvements, the contractor must:
The contractor must also build a:
Where They will Start
The contract documents contain a Q&A section with questions submitted by bidders buried in approximately 600 pages.
At least one bidder (we don’t know who) expressed reservations about completing a project of this size in 616 days. HCFCD responded that it expected the contractor to work on both parts of the project simultaneously. See below.
…But Work to Date Has Focused Only on Detention Basin
Regardless, in the first 2.5 months, Brice has focused only on the detention basin.
It took Brice several weeks to mobilize for the job. After being awarded the contract at the end of March, 2026, I first noticed activity on the site around mid-May. That’s when the contractor started breaking up old storm sewer pipe on the site.
Brice then started moving dirt by the first week in June. To see how much work Brice has completed to date, compare the first two photos below.
Brice appears to have:
See below.
Meanwhile I saw no work on the Taylor Gully portion of the project.
Contract Documents
If you have other questions, consult the contract documents below. HCFCD sent me all the components of Brice’s contract in a file too large to post. So, I split the file up into the sections below for your convenience.
Note: As I post this, FEMA has the Lake Houston Area under a flash flood watch with another 8-12 inches of rainfall possible by Wednesday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/15/2026
3213 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Flash Flood Watch: Extreme Rainfall Possible Thru Wednesday Morning
6/14/2026 – The entire Houston region is under a flash flood watch until Wednesday morning, 6/17/26, according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s Meteorologist.
Weak tropical circulation from northeastern Mexico is lifting northward into south Texas on Monday and Tuesday while a weak front from the north stalls over our area.
Deep tropical moisture colliding with the front will create intense downpours at times. “Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches will be possible with isolated totals of 6-8 inches and this may need to be increased,” says Lindner. “Some models suggest upwards of 9-11 inches of rainfall in isolated locations by Tuesday morning.”
Lindner warns people not to try to figure out the exact locations for the heaviest rain, but instead to focus on the overall potential.
The models are increasingly signaling heavy rains and flash flooding. “This sort of setup in a tropical air mass can result in rapid onset flash flooding with significant hourly rainfall rates and totals,” he says. So, stay tuned to forecasts before you venture out.
What is Flash Flooding?
Flooding is often categorized by how quickly it develops, what causes it, and how long it lasts. The key distinction is that flash flooding happens very rapidly, often with little or no warning.
It begins within minutes to a few hours after intense rainfall, a dam failure, or another sudden water release.
Key characteristics include:
Don’t drive into water where you can’t see the road. Turn around don’t drown.
Why It’s Dangerous
Flash flooding can happen with little warning time. Fast-moving water can sweep away vehicles and people. It accounts for a large share of flood-related deaths.
We’ve had several recent examples in Houston. During parts of the 2015 Memorial Day Flood and 2016 Tax Day Flood, some bayous and streets flooded within hours of intense rainfall, producing flash-flood conditions.
Other Types of Flooding
Hydrologists distinguish flash flooding from several other types of flooding. Houstonians should know the differences, so they can better understand weather warnings.
Lake and Other Reports
As of 4PM on Sunday 6/14/26, Lake Conroe is not pre-releasing any water.
For updates see the homepage at SJRA.net.
Lake Houston is pre-releasing only a small amount.
For Lake Houston updates, visit https://www.coastalwaterauthority.org.
For tropical updates, visit the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Be on high alert until the flash flood watch expires. Check weather forecasts frequently.
To see how rainfall accumulations affect rivers, streams and channels around you, check the Harris County Flood Warning System at https://www.harriscountyfws.org. When you visit the home page, you can see rainfall accumulations around the region. Click on “Channels” in the upper left to see the status of streams, rivers, and bayous near you.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/14/26
3211 Days since Hurricane Harvey