4/14/26 – The San Jacinto Watershed received only 1% of all HCFCD spending in Q1, despite being the county’s largest watershed and having the worst flooding.
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has published updated spending figures for 2018 Flood Bond Projects through the end of the first quarter of 2026. Analysis also revealed:
No Kingwood or Huffman Area projects have reached the construction stage yet
Spending on Lake Houston Area projects continues to lag other watersheds throughout the county.
HCFCD’s years-long spending slowdown may be stabilizing
Separately, Dr. Tina Petersen, PhD, HCFCD’s executive director, recently announced several positive developments for projects on Cypress Creek, the East Fork and Lake Houston Dam.
Let’s look at the funding analysis first. The screen captures below come from the HCFCD Activity Page and speak for themselves.
Overall Spending Slowdown Stabilizing
The chart below shows incremental spending for ALL watersheds since the start of the flood bond in 2018. But the far right shows only one quarter for this year so far. If the first quarter were annualized, it would approximately equal 2025 year-end spending.
Incremental spending after 2026 Q1 for all watersheds.
However, all phases of activity have declined dramatically since the management change at HCFCD in 2021.
Where the Money Went in Q1
The chart below shows the San Jacinto Watershed ranked 14th versus others. Of the $52 million total dollars spent, more than half of the watersheds received less than $1 million each. Only five watersheds received more than $2 million. The Cypress Creek Watershed received $22 million (36% of the total). That $22 million was three times more than the next largest watershed – White Oak at $6.76 million.
Q1 2026 spending for all watersheds totaled only $52 million.
Petersen attributes construction delays to “getting the funding in place.”
San Jacinto Spending Slowed, Too
Looking closer at the San Jacinto watershed, we can see it dropped sharply. But part of the apparent drop has to do with the fact that you are only looking at one quarter so far for the first quarter of 2026.
Incremental spending for the San Jacinto watershed since 2018
In Q1, HCFCD spent only $524,000 in the entire San Jacinto Watershed. Of that, $491,000 came from partners. Only $33,000 came from HCFCD’s bond or budget.
Breakdown of 2026 Q1 spending in San Jacinto Watershed.Dark blue represents partner spending.
But the most significant takeaway should be the volume of spending in the watershed compared to the total for all watersheds during the quarter…
$.052 million is exactly one one-hundredth of $52 million.
Q1 San Jacinto spending vs. total for all watersheds
And that’s for the county’s largest watershed – where the worst flooding occurred during Harvey. See below.
Chart showing feet above flood stage of 33 gages of misc. bayous in Harris County during Harvey.
Total and Construction Spending
Overall, HCFCD and its partners have spent almost $2.2 billion to date.
Total spending by watershed associated with the 2018 flood bond
But most of that has been on upfront studies, engineering and right-of-way acquisitions. Of the total $2.2 billion spent so far, only $1 billion has been on construction – 36%.
Construction spending through 2026 Q1 from 2018 flood bond.
Among watersheds, the San Jacinto ranks 13th on construction spending (not including County-Wide Spending) since 2018. White Oak ranks #1 with $148 million. To date, the San Jacinto watershed has received $21.5 million – one seventh of the construction dollars received by White Oak.
Status of Kingwood/Huffman Projects
Only three projects are active in the Lake Houston Area.
The Luce Bayou Watershed will receive a new detention basin near FM2100 and the Huffman-Cleveland Road to support regional drainage improvements. Construction plans for the fully funded project are nearing completion, according to Petersen.
Status of Lake Houston Gates and East Fork Detention
Farther upstream on Cypress Creek, Petersen said she expects to finally start construction on the TC Jester East Basin soon. HCFCD also claims to have finished construction on the Mercer Basin on Cypress Creek near the Hardy Tollroad.
When I met with Petersen and State Representative Charles Cunningham last week, she also addressed:
A $20 million Inter-Local Agreement with the City of Houston for new Lake Houston Gates. It is on the 4/16/26 Commissioners Court Agenda. See Item 126.
San Jacinto East Fork stormwater detention basins. It’s unlikely any will be built. But “we’ve identified several locations along the East Fork, where if someone wants to sell their property, we will buy it … and we will get FEMA funding to do that.”.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/14/26
3150 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2018-Bond-Spending-by-WS-Incremental.png?fit=2060%2C778&ssl=17782060adminadmin2026-04-14 17:55:142026-04-14 23:21:29San Jacinto Received Only 1% of HCFCD Spending in 2026 Q1
4/13/26 – Since Hurricane Harvey in 2017, I’ve documented how numerous factors contribute to flooding. Individually, none is unique. You see them in operation everywhere around the world. But collectively, their impacts can “stack” in a way that degrades margins of safety and resilience – in some areas more than others.
US59 Bridge over San Jacinto West Fork during Hurricane Harvey, where numerous flood factors converged.
Progressively Eroding Margins of Safety
Driving a vehicle makes a good analogy. A lonely highway. Rain-slick pavement. The dead of night. Bald tires. Too much speed. A tight curve. And a tired driver loses control.
In respect to flooding, the Lake Houston Area has:
A killer hurricane. Stalls over the Houston Area. The highest rainfall totals in the history of North America. Drainage channels clogged with sediment. A dam that can’t let water out fast enough. Homes built too close to water. Power gone. Communication out. Evacuation routes under water. And millions of people trying to flee. Simultaneously.
It’s not Hollywood; it’s Harvey.
Safety … Within Reason
We like to think of OUR safety as an “absolute.” Government and science will protect us, right? Wrong!
How much risk are we willing to live with? Said another way, “How much can we afford?” Engineers could design drainage systems that protect us from 100,000-year storms. But could we afford them? Probably not.
So, we look at probabilities and we compromise. We design systems to handle more than we expect. And they work great. Until the unexpected happens. Then we pray that everything doesn’t go wrong all at once. That our backup systems work.
And when they don’t, we’re left with that stale bag of potato chips in the back of the cupboard, rotting wallboard, and the kindness of strangers.
Systems Optimized for Competing Interests
We optimize communities to serve many different interests. Not just ours. And not just flood resilience. For instance, homes must be affordable, not just flood-safe. So, builders lobby for regulations that reduce their costs. And that may mean putting homes on smaller lots closer together, which…
Increases the percentage of impervious cover in a development
Speeds up runoff
Creates faster, higher flood peaks
And of course, to make new streets, you need sand for the concrete. So, fast-growing areas set up systems that let miners extract sand from floodways where it’s plentiful and pure.
But of course, that’s only a problem for people who live downstream. Until someone else does the same thing farther upstream.
Results: A Balancing Act
Here in the Lake Houston Area, we have a system where runoff is increasing, conveyance is decreasing, and control is fragmented—all at the same time. This combination is rare and particularly unstable.
But of course, it’s not all bad. Good people fight every day to keep you safe.
We have:
Harris County Flood Control District, widening and maintaining ditches, building stormwater detention basins, and maintaining thousands of miles of channels
Houston Mayor John Whitmire, Council Member Fred Flickinger, Houston Public Works Department and Coastal Water Authority, working to add more gates to the Lake Houston Dam
Thousands of first responders, honing rescue skills for the day they hope will never come
Armies of engineers, working to design drainage systems to keep you safe
Public servants like Harris County’s meteorologist Jeff Lindner, monitoring weather and maintaining flood warning systems 24/7/365 to warn you of severe weather
4/12/26 – Numerous human and geologic factors drive flood risk. Where they exist in combination, flood risk degrades the most.
One of the most important “lessons learned” since Hurricane Harvey has been how A) extreme population growth in B) a flat river basin with C) a constrained outlet … combine to increase flood risk.
Extreme Population Growth in Region
Worldwide, urbanization and impervious cover (concrete, rooftops) represent the single most consistent, anthropogenic (man-made) driver of flooding worldwide. And…
According to U.S. Census Bureau figures released in January 2026, Texas ranked as the fastest growing state in the U.S. last year. And within Texas, Harris County grew more than any other county, adding an estimated 48,695 people – a 1% gain. Harris County’s population now tops 5 million people.
But the areas around Harris County are all growing rapidly, too – at least in percentage terms. Upstream from the Lake Houston Area:
Waller County grew by 5.7%
Liberty County grew by 4.4%
Montgomery County grew by 4%.
The U.S. grew only about 0.5% overall from 2024–2025. So these counties are outliers as is Texas itself. Since 2020, Texas has added more residents than any other state, with approximately 2.6 million new residents.
When you look closely at the numbers, there’s a clear bifurcation. Giant metro areas, such as Houston, lead in absolute population growth. But small, fast-developing fringe counties lead in percentage growth.
Why This Matters: Impervious cover
Waller, Liberty and Montgomery Counties lie right upstream from Harris County within the upstream San Jacinto River Basin. They rank among the fastest growing counties in the fastest growing state. That confirms rapid upstream urbanization in the watershed, which puts continued pressure on the San Jacinto West and East Forks.
Meanwhile, Harris County leads the nation in absolute growth. That means:
Just as concerning, to accommodate this growing population, we see floodplain encroachment throughout the watershed. For instance, right now, Scarborough and the Texas General Land Office are trying to develop more than 5,000 of the most flood-prone acres in southeast Texas near the confluence of Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork.
Scarborough Area in center from FEMA’s Flood Hazard Layer Viewer based on pre-Atlas 14 data.
Land that once might have been dedicated to parks for flood control has become too valuable for that. Land owners want to catch the development gravy train.
Proposed Signorelli Development “Crossing at the Commons of Lake Houston.” Dotted lines represent floodplains and floodway. Original residents were promised this would be land for recreation.Signorelli fought the City of Houston all the way to the Supreme Court of Texas for ten years for the right to build on this land.
Fragmented Governance Complicates Growth Factor
Fragmented governance also complicates the issue. Take, for instance, the Scarborough land that borders Harris County. If the land gets developed, Harris County would face increased flood risk while Montgomery County would reap benefits from expanding its tax base. So, the two counties have opposing interests.
Another example: Montgomery County gives tax breaks to sand mines along the San Jacinto that help fuel all this upstream growth. But sediment from those same mines washes downriver and gets deposited in the headwaters of Lake Houston. That sediment reduces conveyance and increases flood risk for the people in Harris County.
Drainage from the 2,500 square mile upper San Jacinto River Basin all flows through Lake Houston.
And extremely low gradients throughout this funnel means water moves slower and lingers longer. That increases the chances of peaks from different tributaries stacking on top of each other.
And finally, other bottlenecks exist, too. Like the FM 1960 Causeway and the Lake Houston Dam with its four small gates. They have a combined release capacity of just 10,000 cubic feet per second – one fifteenth the release capacity of Lake Conroe’s gates.
For More Information
See the Lessons Page of this web site. It condenses the major lessons learned from researching more than 3,000 posts since Harvey into a sort of quick guide.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/12/2026
3148 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/20251103-Layered-Maps.jpg?fit=1100%2C563&ssl=15631100adminadmin2026-04-12 19:49:332026-04-12 19:49:34Extreme Growth in Flatland With Constrained Drainage
San Jacinto Received Only 1% of HCFCD Spending in 2026 Q1
4/14/26 – The San Jacinto Watershed received only 1% of all HCFCD spending in Q1, despite being the county’s largest watershed and having the worst flooding.
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has published updated spending figures for 2018 Flood Bond Projects through the end of the first quarter of 2026. Analysis also revealed:
Separately, Dr. Tina Petersen, PhD, HCFCD’s executive director, recently announced several positive developments for projects on Cypress Creek, the East Fork and Lake Houston Dam.
Let’s look at the funding analysis first. The screen captures below come from the HCFCD Activity Page and speak for themselves.
Overall Spending Slowdown Stabilizing
The chart below shows incremental spending for ALL watersheds since the start of the flood bond in 2018. But the far right shows only one quarter for this year so far. If the first quarter were annualized, it would approximately equal 2025 year-end spending.
However, all phases of activity have declined dramatically since the management change at HCFCD in 2021.
Where the Money Went in Q1
The chart below shows the San Jacinto Watershed ranked 14th versus others. Of the $52 million total dollars spent, more than half of the watersheds received less than $1 million each. Only five watersheds received more than $2 million. The Cypress Creek Watershed received $22 million (36% of the total). That $22 million was three times more than the next largest watershed – White Oak at $6.76 million.
Petersen attributes construction delays to “getting the funding in place.”
San Jacinto Spending Slowed, Too
Looking closer at the San Jacinto watershed, we can see it dropped sharply. But part of the apparent drop has to do with the fact that you are only looking at one quarter so far for the first quarter of 2026.
In Q1, HCFCD spent only $524,000 in the entire San Jacinto Watershed. Of that, $491,000 came from partners. Only $33,000 came from HCFCD’s bond or budget.
But the most significant takeaway should be the volume of spending in the watershed compared to the total for all watersheds during the quarter…
And that’s for the county’s largest watershed – where the worst flooding occurred during Harvey. See below.
Total and Construction Spending
Overall, HCFCD and its partners have spent almost $2.2 billion to date.
But most of that has been on upfront studies, engineering and right-of-way acquisitions. Of the total $2.2 billion spent so far, only $1 billion has been on construction – 36%.
Among watersheds, the San Jacinto ranks 13th on construction spending (not including County-Wide Spending) since 2018. White Oak ranks #1 with $148 million. To date, the San Jacinto watershed has received $21.5 million – one seventh of the construction dollars received by White Oak.
Status of Kingwood/Huffman Projects
Only three projects are active in the Lake Houston Area.
The Kingwood Diversion Ditch is still in engineering. It is fully funded and includes:
Petersen says construction could start as early as 2027.
She expects the Taylor Gully and the Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin Project to start construction in May 2026. It is also fully funded and includes:
The Luce Bayou Watershed will receive a new detention basin near FM2100 and the Huffman-Cleveland Road to support regional drainage improvements. Construction plans for the fully funded project are nearing completion, according to Petersen.
Status of Lake Houston Gates and East Fork Detention
Farther upstream on Cypress Creek, Petersen said she expects to finally start construction on the TC Jester East Basin soon. HCFCD also claims to have finished construction on the Mercer Basin on Cypress Creek near the Hardy Tollroad.
When I met with Petersen and State Representative Charles Cunningham last week, she also addressed:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/14/26
3150 Days since Hurricane Harvey
How “Stacking Effect” Erodes Margins of Safety
4/13/26 – Since Hurricane Harvey in 2017, I’ve documented how numerous factors contribute to flooding. Individually, none is unique. You see them in operation everywhere around the world. But collectively, their impacts can “stack” in a way that degrades margins of safety and resilience – in some areas more than others.
Progressively Eroding Margins of Safety
Driving a vehicle makes a good analogy. A lonely highway. Rain-slick pavement. The dead of night. Bald tires. Too much speed. A tight curve. And a tired driver loses control.
In respect to flooding, the Lake Houston Area has:
Now, Add 30-40% More Rain than Expected
A killer hurricane. Stalls over the Houston Area. The highest rainfall totals in the history of North America. Drainage channels clogged with sediment. A dam that can’t let water out fast enough. Homes built too close to water. Power gone. Communication out. Evacuation routes under water. And millions of people trying to flee. Simultaneously.
Safety … Within Reason
We like to think of OUR safety as an “absolute.” Government and science will protect us, right? Wrong!
How much risk are we willing to live with? Said another way, “How much can we afford?” Engineers could design drainage systems that protect us from 100,000-year storms. But could we afford them? Probably not.
So, we look at probabilities and we compromise. We design systems to handle more than we expect. And they work great. Until the unexpected happens. Then we pray that everything doesn’t go wrong all at once. That our backup systems work.
And when they don’t, we’re left with that stale bag of potato chips in the back of the cupboard, rotting wallboard, and the kindness of strangers.
Systems Optimized for Competing Interests
We optimize communities to serve many different interests. Not just ours. And not just flood resilience. For instance, homes must be affordable, not just flood-safe. So, builders lobby for regulations that reduce their costs. And that may mean putting homes on smaller lots closer together, which…
And of course, to make new streets, you need sand for the concrete. So, fast-growing areas set up systems that let miners extract sand from floodways where it’s plentiful and pure.
But of course, that’s only a problem for people who live downstream. Until someone else does the same thing farther upstream.
Results: A Balancing Act
Here in the Lake Houston Area, we have a system where runoff is increasing, conveyance is decreasing, and control is fragmented—all at the same time. This combination is rare and particularly unstable.
But of course, it’s not all bad. Good people fight every day to keep you safe.
We have:
It’s all a balancing act.
For More Information
To learn more about how we can protect margins of safety, see the Lessons Page of this website.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/13/2026
3149 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Extreme Growth in Flatland With Constrained Drainage
4/12/26 – Numerous human and geologic factors drive flood risk. Where they exist in combination, flood risk degrades the most.
One of the most important “lessons learned” since Hurricane Harvey has been how A) extreme population growth in B) a flat river basin with C) a constrained outlet … combine to increase flood risk.
Extreme Population Growth in Region
Worldwide, urbanization and impervious cover (concrete, rooftops) represent the single most consistent, anthropogenic (man-made) driver of flooding worldwide. And…
According to U.S. Census Bureau figures released in January 2026, Texas ranked as the fastest growing state in the U.S. last year. And within Texas, Harris County grew more than any other county, adding an estimated 48,695 people – a 1% gain. Harris County’s population now tops 5 million people.
But the areas around Harris County are all growing rapidly, too – at least in percentage terms. Upstream from the Lake Houston Area:
The U.S. grew only about 0.5% overall from 2024–2025. So these counties are outliers as is Texas itself. Since 2020, Texas has added more residents than any other state, with approximately 2.6 million new residents.
When you look closely at the numbers, there’s a clear bifurcation. Giant metro areas, such as Houston, lead in absolute population growth. But small, fast-developing fringe counties lead in percentage growth.
Why This Matters: Impervious cover
Waller, Liberty and Montgomery Counties lie right upstream from Harris County within the upstream San Jacinto River Basin. They rank among the fastest growing counties in the fastest growing state. That confirms rapid upstream urbanization in the watershed, which puts continued pressure on the San Jacinto West and East Forks.
Meanwhile, Harris County leads the nation in absolute growth. That means:
Just as concerning, to accommodate this growing population, we see floodplain encroachment throughout the watershed. For instance, right now, Scarborough and the Texas General Land Office are trying to develop more than 5,000 of the most flood-prone acres in southeast Texas near the confluence of Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork.
Land that once might have been dedicated to parks for flood control has become too valuable for that. Land owners want to catch the development gravy train.
Fragmented Governance Complicates Growth Factor
Fragmented governance also complicates the issue. Take, for instance, the Scarborough land that borders Harris County. If the land gets developed, Harris County would face increased flood risk while Montgomery County would reap benefits from expanding its tax base. So, the two counties have opposing interests.
Another example: Montgomery County gives tax breaks to sand mines along the San Jacinto that help fuel all this upstream growth. But sediment from those same mines washes downriver and gets deposited in the headwaters of Lake Houston. That sediment reduces conveyance and increases flood risk for the people in Harris County.
Infrastructure Bottlenecks and Peak Stacking
Drainage from all this extreme upstream growth feeds into a bottleneck with a constrained outlet – Lake Houston.
And extremely low gradients throughout this funnel means water moves slower and lingers longer. That increases the chances of peaks from different tributaries stacking on top of each other.
And finally, other bottlenecks exist, too. Like the FM 1960 Causeway and the Lake Houston Dam with its four small gates. They have a combined release capacity of just 10,000 cubic feet per second – one fifteenth the release capacity of Lake Conroe’s gates.
For More Information
See the Lessons Page of this web site. It condenses the major lessons learned from researching more than 3,000 posts since Harvey into a sort of quick guide.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/12/2026
3148 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.