Tag Archive for: Invest 92L

Invest 92L Now Offshore; First Hints of Circulation

Chances of Formation Increase to 70% in 2-Day Outlook

As of 2PM EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) again increased the chances of Invest 92L turning into a tropical storm. This morning, the two-day outlook said 50%. Now it’s 70%. The 5-day outlook remains at 80%. The animated GIF below shows the first hints of circulation. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to fly into the storm tomorrow if necessary.

Since this morning, the chances of Invest 92L turning into a tropical storm have increased from 50% to 70% in the two-day outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center.
Five-hour loop showing first hints of circulation offshore Florida Panhandle.

Center Now in Northeastern Gulf

According to the NHC, a broad low-pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development over the next several days, and…

… a tropical depression is likely to form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Heavy Rainfall Potential, But More to East

This disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast. Continue to monitor the storm at least twice a day.

Uncertainty still high; track uncertain, though all models now suggest landfall east of Houston.

The satellite image below shows infrared imagery. Note how the moisture has built up in the eastern Gulf in the last three hours. It now occupies an area from south Louisiana to south Florida.

24-hour satellite infrared loop shows explosion of convection in northeastern Gulf.

Where to Find Most Current Information 24/7

Official:

National Hurricane Center

NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration)

National Weather Service

Harris County Flood Warning System

National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

USGS Water on the Go App

San Jacinto River Authority

Coastal Water Authority

Other:

Mikes Weather Page

Weather Nerds

Stay dry.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/9/2019 at 3:15pm

679 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Tuesday AM Invest 92L Update: Chances of Tropical Formation Keep Increasing

The chances of Invest 92L becoming a named tropical storm have increased to 50% in the two-day forecast and 80% in the five-day forecast, according to the National Hurricane Center. That’s the bad news. The good news for the Houston area: most models now predict the storm will make landfall in Louisiana.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist caps predicted rainfall totals at 1 to 3 inches for now, but with the understanding that totals could go significantly higher.

Invest in this context means “area of investigation.” A weather system receives this designation when forecasters start to track something serious more closely.

Uncertainty Remains High at This Time

Because the center of this storm is still over land at the moment, it’s hard to predict. Models diverge widely. Those that take the storm further south into the Gulf result in stronger winds and higher rainfall totals because the storm will remain over water longer.

However, some models predict the storm will remain closer to shore as it tracks westward through the Gulf. Those models suggest lower winds and less rainfall. The current radius of circulation of the storm is 150 nautical miles. (One nautical mile = 1.15078 miles.)

Net: forecasts are all over the map at the moment. Uncertainty remains high.

Suggested Actions

Your best bet is to:

  • Monitor forecasts twice a day
  • Check and stock hurricane kits and have plans ready to be enacted this week
  • Be ready to enact plans by the middle to end of this week
  • Follow trusted weather sources for information (National Hurricane Center, Houston/Galveston National Weather Service, West Gulf River Forecast Center and local government) for any recommendations

Graphical Predictions

From Mikes Weather Page as of Monday evening.
Numbers on each track indicate hours from 6 UTC, Tuesday morning. If the red model is correct, the storm would hit the Texas/Louisiana border by 6am Saturday morning.

Where to Find Most Current Information 24/7

Official:

National Hurricane Center

NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration)

National Weather Service

Harris County Flood Warning System

National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

USGS Water on the Go App

San Jacinto River Authority

Coastal Water Authority

Other:

Mikes Weather Page

Weather Nerds

Good luck!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/9/2019

679 Days since Hurricane Harvey