HCFCD Archives - Page 5 of 24

HCFCD Explains Scope of Maintenance Needs, Proposition A

10/17/24 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) held a meeting Wednesday night at the Kingwood Community Center to explain the scope of its maintenance activities. The exhibits were designed to raise awareness of the types of things HCFCD does in order to help educate the public in advance of the vote on HCFCD’s Proposition A.

Proposition A would increase HCFCD taxes 63 percent.

Not discussed at the meeting:

A basis for the percentage increase in the tax rate
Justification for the amount of the tax increase, i.e., linking objectives/tasks to cost estimates and budgets
How, where or when the additional money would be deployed
Prioritization of maintenance projects, i.e., the Equity Prioritization Framework for Flood Bond Projects.

For those who couldn’t make the meeting, I’ll provide a brief recap of the exhibits below. There was no formal presentation. Residents walked from table to table and asked the staff questions about the oversized poster exhibits shown below. Some of the type gets pretty small when reproduced on a cell phone or tablet, so I’ll provide some context.

At the end, I will also provide some feedback from attendees.

What Does Proposition A Include?

The first poster talked about the proposed tax increase. The small type explains the before and after tax rates if Prop A is approved. The HCFCD tax RATE would go from 3.316 cents to 4.897 cents per $100 of assessed valuation. That’s a 57% increase in the rate. What they don’t show is an average 6% increase in valuations this year, bringing the total increase in your tax BILL up to 63%. The rate is applied to a larger base.

*The small type says that the average homeowner would see an increase of $60/year. Altogether, the new tax would generate $100 million of additional revenue for HCFCD.*

Here is the language you will find on your ballot. Notice that it says the new tax would go toward “operating and maintaining the District’s flood-risk-reduction infrastructure.”

The reference to operations would let the $100 million be spent on virtually anything…like the $3 million Commissioners Court approved last week to hire a consulting firm to write the county’s resilience plan.

Scope of Maintenance Activities

The rest of the posters discussed different types of maintenance.

*Examples of preventative maintenance include mowing and debris removal.*

They vary throughout the year by season. This chart shows seasonal shifts in emphasis. For instance, they plant trees in the fall and winter.

*Channels in the Kingwood area that have received maintenance help since Harvey.*

*Forward-looking maintenance includes things like tree planting; selective clearing; and planting of native grasses and wildflowers.*

HCFCD also does major maintenance projects that border on capital improvement projects.

*Examples include sediment removal from channels; channel sidewall replacement; repairs to concrete lining and outfalls; and erosion repairs.*

See before-and-after examples below.

Service Requests

The pie-chart below shows the major types of service requests that members of the public request. The top categories are:

Debris 29%
Ponding Water 13%
Tree 12%
Unauthorized use 11%
Erosion 10%
Vegetation Overgrowth 9%

*Note also how the level of service requests has remained relatively constant for the last four years. There is less than 5% variation*.

This heat map shows where the most service requests came from in the county.

*Precinct 4 is the pinkish color at the top of the map.*

Beryl and the Derecho

The biggest effort in recent years has been debris removal following Hurricane Beryl and the derecho.

*HCFCD/FEMA contractors have removed 40,000 tons (80 million pounds) of debris so far this year.*

Mixed Feedback/Support

Dee Price, KSA President, was positive. She said, “After attending the Harris County Flood Control District’s public meeting on Proposition A, it is my assessment that Harris County Flood Control District needs additional funds to maintain all of the infrastructure for which it is responsible. It is my opinion that Kingwood would benefit if HCFCD receives additional funds that would enable them to maintain the drainage infrastructure in Kingwood.”

Jeff Miller, an Elm Grove resident who lives near Taylor Gully, said, “HCFCD freely admitted that their performance has been falling short for a long time but that with more funding, they can catch up. I plan to vote for Prop A, but based on our experience with the 2018 flood bond, I’m doing so reluctantly.”

I was skeptical based on previous experiences with the 2018 Flood Bond and 2022 Bond. County commissioners changed those deals after voters approved them. “The same thing could happen with Prop A and the Lake Houston Area could wind up funding projects everywhere but here.”

Turnout for the meeting was approximately 40 people – very low compared to the 13,000 that flooded in the Lake Houston Area in recent years.

Only one thing is certain – either way, you have the power to send a message with your vote.

Two Additional Meetings

HCFCD has scheduled two additional Zoom meetings for people who couldn’t attend in person.

Thursday, October 24 | 12:00 – 1:00 p.m
Wednesday, October 30 | 12:00 – 1:00 p.m.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/17/24

2606 Days since Hurricane Harvey

HCFCD Contractors Begin Clearing Trees Blocking Streams, Channels

8/17/24 – The clearing of trees blocking streams and channels in the Lake Houston Area has begun. The clearing began after a coordinated inventorying and reporting effort.

According to Chris Bloch, a member of the Bear Branch Trail Association Board, FEMA contractors working for Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD), were seen this morning clearing trees blocking Bens Branch. The stream cuts diagonally through the middle of Kingwood.

If left in the stream, the trees can catch other debris floating downstream and create log dams that back floodwater up into streets and homes. So, contractors are cutting the fallen trees into sections and removing them.

This morning, I found them hauling the logs and underbrush out of the woods with a Bobcat fitted with grappling jaws. They stacked the debris near Woodland Hills Drive to be hauled away.

However, in coming days, contractors will be using much larger equipment and actually going down into the channel to remove logs and haul them off.

According to Bloch, just cutting the logs into small sections and letting them float away in the next flood is not the answer. They could still harm unsuspecting boaters and waterskiers in Lake Houston.

Beware of Heavy Equipment with Limited Visibility

It’s unclear at this time how long the clearing operation will take. But Bloch estimates that it could easily take a week or more to get all the way down Bens Branch.

Other contractors may be working on other channels simultaneously. However, I have been unable to verify that at this time.

*Photograph taken 8/17/24 near St. Martha School at Bens Branch and Woodland Hills Drive.*

Residents should exercise caution when using greenbelt trails during the removal operation. Operators maneuvering in tight spaces have limited visibility when transporting logs and brush. They will use greenbelt trails in some places and CenterPoint easements in others.

Residents who use the trails to get to school or for recreation should consider wearing brightly colored shirts or reflective vests to increase their visibility.

Members of the Bear Branch Trail Association Board met with the contractor last night to show them where obstructions are in Bens Branch and other channels.

*Note the size of some of those logs. The pile is 6-8 feet tall.*

Inventorying the blockages was difficult. Now comes the really hard part.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/17/24

2545 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 40 since Beryl

Inventorying Channel Blockages Could Help HCFCD

8/9/24 – Here’s an unsolicited idea that could help improve efficiency of the Beryl recovery process: inventorying channel blockages in your area. Then supply Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) with a comprehensive, consolidated list. It could save them time when time is critical as we head into the peak of hurricane season.

HCFCD maintains more than 2,500 miles of bayous, creeks and manmade drainage channels, along with dozens of large stormwater detention basins across Harris County. And damage from Beryl has affected the entire county. Reportedly, the extent of the damage has HCFCD maintenance staff stretched to the max.

Implications for Maintenance

Maintenance has reportedly become HCFCD’s major focus of activity at the moment. No one has bandwidth to spare. So, this may be one of those times when citizens can help. Not by cleaning out ditches and streams themselves; that’s dangerous. But by reporting problems more efficiently and effectively.

Rather than having five different people report five different blockages on the same stream at five different times, so crews make five trips, perhaps one, consolidated report would help.

A consolidated report could:

Reduce the number of phone calls and emails to process, track and respond to
Help prioritize the hardest hit areas
Reduce the number of repeat trips to a single area
Make scheduling crews easier
Improve response time
Reduce flooding from blockages that may not have been reported.

How to Report Problems

Last week, I posted about ways to direct HCFCD to problems quickly, especially when street addresses might not apply. For instance, consider creeks that cut through greenbelt trails.

About that time, Chris Bloch, a board member of the Bear Branch Trail Association (BBTA), sent me a dozen photos of blocked streams within his association.

He had reported them all to HCFCD simultaneously in one consolidated request. That inspired the idea for this post.

I’m sure flood control would like your help identifying blockages any way they can get it, whether requests are individual or consolidated. As a former business owner, I always looked for ways to operate more efficiently. This could be one of those times. Collectively, we have a simple way to help.

Walk your greenbelts looking for problems. Then produce a thorough, consolidated report that identifies channel numbers and locations, and submit it to HCFCD:

Contact hcfcd.org/service-request or 346-286-4197

Consolidated List Could Improve Efficiency

The Lake Houston Area has dozens, if not hundreds of community and trail associations that could help with this task.

So thousands of different HCFCD trips could be greatly reduced.

Below are five photos submitted by Bloch from among many more taken on the six miles of channels within BBTA’s boundaries. They come from ONE stretch of ONE creek. And Bloch reported them all at ONCE.

Calling on All HOAs and Trail Associations

Each blockage shown above could catch other trees floating downstream in future storms and create log jams that back water up and flood neighborhoods. They are invisible from the air, hidden by the dense tree canopy.

To help ensure blockages get addressed ASAP, every trail or community association should consider submitting a consolidated list of issues within their respective areas.

Walking 2,500 miles of channels is like walking across America. It ain’t easy.

Think how much time consolidated inventorying of channel blockages could save HCFCD staff who are already stretched thin.

Please share this post with your HOA and Trail Association board members in your area. Perhaps they can help identify volunteers, which may include scouts eager to earn hiking, photography community service and mapping merit badges.

2537 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 30 since Beryl

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/9/24

HCFCD Releases Final Report on Hurricane Beryl

8/5/24 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has released its final report on Hurricane Beryl. The amazingly detailed, fact-filled, 30-page report by Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, covers the storm’s origins, rainfall, storm surge, high-water marks, wind speeds, flooding, and more for locations throughout the County.

Every sentence contains nuggets of information that you can use to amaze your friends, relatives in other states, and insurance agents.

Wind Speeds Up to 99 MPH

I’m not joking about insurance agents. One homeowner told me an adjuster denied her claim based on the fact that the wind was “only 37 MPH.” This report shows both average wind speeds and gusts. According to the official report, peak gusts in the Lake Houston Area were 69 MPH – almost double what the adjuster said.

Kyle Field at Texas A&M recorded the highest gust – 99 MPH.

Highest Storm Surge since Ike

Have a home near the shore? You may be interested to know that Beryl produced the highest storm surge since Hurricane Ike in 2008.

Storm surge averaged 5-7 feet above ground level along the coast, near the west side of Galveston Bay, Clear Lake, and the lower San Jacinto.

Water levels at the ship-channel turning basin reached 9 feet above ground level.

The high surge levels are likely the result of freshwater descending in watersheds as wind drove seawater into the upper portions of the ship channel.

Rainfall Intensity

Rainfall intensity was very high in places at times.

The Houston Transtar Center in the Buffalo Bayou watershed received 9.9 inches in 6 hours. There’s only a 2% annual chance of that (meaning it was a 50-year rainfall at that location). Transtar also received the highest 24-hour total – 12 inches (a 4% annual chance or 25-year total).

Out of 193 gages, 82 (42%) recorded an inch of rainfall in 15 minutes.

Rainfall Totals

Rainfall totals were less impressive due largely to the speed of the storm.

Most of the county received 24-hour totals of 6-9 inches. Higher totals generally fell south of I-10.

Six-hour rainfall amounts averaged 4-7 inches across most of the county.

Rainfall rates on the Atlas 14 chart for both 6- and 12-hour periods generally fell between 2- and 10-year events.

*24-Hour Rainfall Totals during Beryl. HCFCD report also contains totals from shorter time periods.*

The report noted that storms before Beryl had left the ground highly saturated. That increased runoff.

Only 10 Homes in County Flooded

Channel flooding was moderate. Approximately 10 structures flooded throughout the county. All suffered flooding in the past. They were built in areas with very low elevations.

Forty out of 193 gages reached or exceeded “flooding-likely” levels. That means the channels were full to the top of their banks.

Had the storm moved slower, Beryl could have been a very different story!

Other Damage

Power outages that resulted from high winds blowing trees into power lines created by far the largest impact to infrastructure.

2.26 million homes lost power – some for up to 11 days. The Lake Houston Area was among the hardest hit because of the dense forests here. The density adds a degree of difficult for both maintenance and repair crews.

*Note uprooted tree to left of bend in trail still leaning over power lines in Kings Forest*. *Photo taken 8/4/24.*

Twenty-eight days after the storm, dead trees and limbs still clog streets and lean on power lines.

Intense rainfall occasionally caused flooding of streets and roadways. Portions of SH288, I-10 and I-45 flooded and became impassable at times.

Beaches eroded along most of the upper Texas Coast. High tides and storm surge overtopped and destroyed entire dune systems.

Beryl also damaged coastal roadways, beach access walkways, and private as well as public properties.

High-Water Marks

A table on page 30 compares the high-water marks at dozens of locations with those from previous storms dating, in some cases, back to 1973.

At Clear Creek and I-45, Beryl flooding reached almost as high as Tropical Storm Allison (7.7 feet in Beryl vs. 7.8 feet in Allison).

HCFCD did not record any high-water marks in the Lake Houston Area.

Deaths

As of July 31, Hurricane Beryl had directly caused five deaths in Harris County: three from drowning, two from falling trees.

Additionally, the County recorded 13 indirect deaths: eight heat related, five recovery related.

The report notes that Beryl continues a recent trend of more fatalities occurring in the aftermath of landfalling storms than from the storms themselves.

I’m not quite sure what to infer from that. Is our preparation for flooding getting better? Or is our infrastructure maintenance getting worse?

For More Information

To read the full Final Report on Hurricane Beryl, click here. You can compare reports on other major storms here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/5/24

2533 days since Hurricane Harvey and 28 since Beryl

Giant Mercer Basin on Cypress Creek Aiming for Completion This Fall

July 22 2024 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) still aims to complete the giant Mercer Stormwater Detention Basin between FM1960 and Cypress Creek just East of the Hardy Toll Road before the end of this year.

Pictures taken 7/22/24 Show Progress

*Looking S toward FM1960 from over Mercer Basin. Hardy Toll Road cuts through upper right of frame.*

*Reverse angle looking N toward Cypress Creek in trees just north of the northern basin.*

*Looking West toward Hardy Toll Road at Southern Basin. FM1960 in upper left.*

Compare these pictures of the Mercer Basin in February this year when clearing and construction was just getting started.

Fighting the Elements

All things considered – January floods, a derecho, May floods and Hurricane Beryl – contractors seem to be making good progress. Especially if you consider that I’ve already recorded 57 inches of rain in my gage in the first six and a half months of this year – more than we usually get in a full year.

How Big is It?

The Mercer Site covers 58 acres. It will contain twin, connected, dry-bottom basins totaling 512 acre feet.

One acre roughly equals the size of a football field without end zones. So, 512 acre feet would cover an area that large to a depth of 512 feet. That’s approximately the height of Two Allen Center downtown.

Of course, the basin won’t be 512 feet deep. It will likely be around 8 to 10 feet deep because it covers 58 acres minus room for maintenance roads.

History of Project

Harris County finalized acquisition of the property in August 2023. A $15.4 million grant obtained from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) in 2018 stipulates completion before the end of this year.

Additional funding comes from the 2018 Bond Program, which was approved by Harris County voters on August 25, 2018.

Layout and Location

The two maps below show the layout and location of the project.

Mercer Stormwater Detention Basin — *HCFCD map of Mercer project*

Mercer location — *Mercer is about 8 miles upstream from the US59 bridge over the West Fork.*

Cypress Creek joins Spring Creek before reaching US59.

Construction Details

Features include:

Concrete box culverts will equalize water levels between the two compartments. And a spillway will connect the northern basin to Cypress Creek.
A 54” outfall pipe will move water from the basin into Cypress Creek.
A 30’ wide berm will accommodate maintenance and future recreational amenities.

Part of a Bigger Solution

Mercer is one of several stormwater detention basin projects HCFCD is developing in the Cypress Creek watershed.

A regional drainage study for the watershed found that rising floodwaters in Cypress Creek back water up into tributaries and cause flooding there. The tributaries have sufficient stormwater conveyance or drainage capacity. Therefore, stormwater detention basins can help reduce the backwater issue.

The regional drainage study described here recommends nearly 25,000 acre-feet of additional stormwater detention in the watershed.

Mercer by itself won’t help the Lake Houston Area much in a major flood. It’s designed to help primarily homes and businesses in the area which you can see in the photos above.

But every little bit helps.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2024

2519 Days since Hurricane Harvey

2024 Flood-Bond Update Shows Changed, Changing Priorities

July 21, 2024 – Last week, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) quietly shared this year’s flood-bond update with Commissioners Court. The update came during widespread power and internet outages from Hurricane Beryl that limited its visibility.

The flood-bond update details progress on the 2018 Flood Bond for the first time since the last update last October.

Combining the data in this flood-bond update with data from other sources reveals the impact of the County’s political divide and Equity Prioritization Indices. Both have affected projects in the Lake Houston area and Precinct 3 negatively.

But first some good news.

More Partner Funds Now Secured than Required by Original Bond

The total of secured funding now exceeds $5.2 billion. That includes the $2.5 billion approved by voters in 2018 plus $2.7 billion in other funding secured since then.

The additional funds include grants and matching funds from city, state and federal governments plus other local organizations, such as municipal utility districts. It also includes $87 million in Bond ID Z-07 – the Bond Program Reserve, formerly known as the Flood Resilience Trust.

Commissioners Court allocated this money to backstop bond funding before a massive infusion of funds from the General Land Office and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development in 2022.

The total amount now available exceeds total project costs in both the original bond estimate and a slightly revised project list released in a 2021 flood-bond update.

HCFCD says it is working on revising costs to reflect inflation and the rising cost of property acquisition since then. However, it appears that HCFCD did not include inflation-adjusted project estimates in the current update.

Dollars Spent vs Dollars Secured

Regardless, we are now at a point in the bond where available cash covers the original estimates. So looking at dollars spent vs. dollars secured gives us a reasonable feel for how close we are to completing flood-bond projects in various watersheds. See the bar graph below.

*Compiled by combining 2024 Bond Update Appendix B on Page 10 with spending data obtained separately via FOIA request.* *See data in table below.*

Brays and Greens are more than 80% complete. Five others are more than 50%.

Meanwhile, 15 others are less than 50%. And of those, 10 are less than 25%. The county’s largest watershed, the San Jacinto, is only 19% complete (“spent”).

The graph above does not include Carpenters Bayou. It was an anomaly at 1762%. The 2021 bond update included only half a million dollars for a study there. But HCFCD has spent almost $9 million so far. Including Carpenters in the bar graph distorted the scale and obscured the differences between the other watersheds. However, I did include it in the table below.

*Compiled by combining Bond Update Appendix B on Page 10 with spending data obtained via FOIA request.* *County-wide projects not included.*

Next month will mark the sixth anniversary of flood-bond approval. The bond was originally intended to be a 10-year program. So, totaling all these figures, we are about 40% done in 60% of the time. There’s certainly room for improvement on that front.

Projects in some watersheds are stalled while projects in others near completion. Take, for instance, the Kingwood Diversion Ditch and Taylor Gully Projects in the San Jacinto Watershed. The Kingwood Area Drainage Analysis identified them as the top two projects in Kingwood back in 2020.

But not a shovel full of dirt has been turned yet on the Diversion Ditch project. And a $1,000 excavation and removal contract on the Woodridge/Taylor Gully project was terminated last November when only one third complete.

Partisan Changes Negatively Impact Precinct 3

Another thing to look at: changes to projects (Dollar Increases or Decreases; Project Deletions or Additions). While a certain amount of changes are normal when dealing with rough, early estimates, in this case, the changes also reflect a partisan bias.

When calculating the differences, I compared projects by Bond ID in the 2024 flood-bond update to the original bond allocations in 2018.

Harris County has three Democratic commissioners and one Republican – Tom Ramsey in Precinct 3.

Thirty projects affecting the three Democratic Precincts increased by $162.6 million – $54.2 million per precinct on average. But projects in the lone Republican precinct increased only $27 million. Thus, the three Democrats each benefited twice as much from additions as the lone Republican.
Likewise, 12 projects in the three Democratic Precincts decreased by a total of $92.6 million or $30.6 million per precinct on average. But Ramsey’s precinct lost $40.5 million.
Ramsey lost $13.5 million more than he gained.
Ellis, Garcia and Briones each gained about $8 million more than they lost.

When watersheds crossed precinct boundaries, I split dollars evenly among them. For example, if a project increased in value by $10 million and benefited one Republican and one Democratic precinct, I allocated $5 million to each. While that may not be precisely accurate in all cases, more precise data is not readily available.

To see the evolution of the bond fund through various iterations during the last six years, see the Harris County Flood Control District tab on the ReduceFlooding Reports page.

Other Items of Note

I did not include Countywide Expenditures in the calculations above even though they took a large hit. Their decrease shows up in corresponding increases for watershed projects. And I was more interested in how those were skewed.

However, one item definitely deserves future exploration: the $50 million decrease in “Federal Grant Funded Volunteer Home Buyouts.” Typically, the Federal Government grants funds for specific purposes. Where did this money go? The 2024 flood-bond update does not say.

Also of note: HCFCD currently has 20 projects in construction or turnover. The District has spent more than $2 billion in bond and partnership funds out of the $5.2 billion now available.

The latest bond update points out that of 181 original projects, 42 have been completed and closed out.

Equity Being Redefined Again

Separate from the bond update, Commissioners approved an expansion of equity guidelines last week. Item 18 on the agenda discusses an expanded definition of “equity” that will be used to allocate future flood mitigation dollars. It includes three components:

Structural Equity – righting historical wrongs
Procedural Equity – implementing procedures, policies and programs for groups previously not considered.
Socio-emotionally Intelligent Equity – mitigates the impacts of interpersonal, individual, structural, systemic, and institutional racism and sexism.

More news to follow when I figure out how all that will affect flood-control-mitigation dollars which have historically correlated to flood damage more than sexism.

At the very least, the imposition of new metrics on projects will slow down project scoring and implementation. It’s additional overhead burden on already complex processes. But my real fear? More and more of the San Jacinto watershed budget will slip away to other watersheds.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/21/2024

2518 Days since Hurricane Harvey

How May 2024 Flood Compared to Harvey

Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) briefed the County’s Community Resilience Flood Task Force on how the extent of the May 2024 flood compared to Hurricane Harvey. In places, inundation matched Harvey. And in others it came close or fell short.

See the inundation map below. In my opinion, it dramatizes three things:

Serious flooding can happen any month of the year in the Houston region.
Flooding can happen anywhere that rain falls.
Flood-mitigation measures make a huge difference.

*Inundation map from HCFCD comparing Harvey with May 2024 floods and evacuation zones.*

Anytime

As the map above shows, major rain can fall outside of a hurricane season. In fact, May is usually the third wettest month of the year in Houston, exceeded only by June and October.

Of seven major storms to strike this area since 2016, four have happened outside of hurricane season.

Anywhere

The worst rainfall in the early May floods happened at the very top of the San Jacinto river basin in the upper portions of the East and West Forks. Parts of those watersheds received almost 20 inches of rain.

In Huntsville, Harvey dumped only 2 more inches of rain than a training band of thunderstorms in May 2024. The map above shows the results.

Cypress, Spring and Lake Creeks, which originate on the west side, received roughly a quarter to a third of the rain that fell to the north during early May.

*Rainfall totals for 8 days before May 6, 2024. Compare 18.4 at top of map to smaller totals farther south.* *From Harris County Flood Warning System.*

However, during Harvey, the rainfall distribution was the opposite of the map above. Huntsville received about 17 inches while areas to the south received more than 40.

Flood-Mitigation Measures

The inundation map above shows the importance of another location-related variable: upstream stormwater detention. Note how much more blue you see on the West Fork than on the East Fork which is predominantly green. The West Fork has a dam at Lake Conroe which partially blocked the heaviest flows. The East Fork has no dams.

But the East Fork and Luce Bayou do have the sprawling Colony Ridge Development. And Colony Ridge, especially the first 12,000 acres, has only a minuscule amount of stormwater detention. The development is now 50% larger than Manhattan.

Development usually increases the speed and volume of runoff. Developers normally use detention basins to limit post-development runoff to pre-development rates, so that they don’t increase flooding.

But for the most part, that didn’t happen in Colony Ridge. And that contributed to flooding downstream.

The inundation map above should be a wakeup call. Of 16 major flood-mitigation projects identified in the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Study, not one has even gotten to the drawing boards, much less off them – after four years.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/3/24

2500 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

The Next Step in Inundation Mapping

Several years ago, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) made a giant leap forward with real-time inundation mapping. You could log onto the Harris County Flood Warning System, click on “inundation map,” zoom into your neighborhood, and see how close floodwater was getting in “near real time.”

It was a radical advance over earlier system. But now we need another radical advance – predictive inundation mapping.

No one, as far as I can see, offers such a service. The National Weather Service predicts how high water will get at gages, but not between them where people live.

How Close Will the Floodwater Get…At My Location?

Buyers today have much more information at their fingertips than decades ago, but no one puts it all together.

One of the most useful websites during a flood is the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. There, you can see how fast water is rising, where it will peak, when it will fall, and a hydrologic history of the event. (See layout below.)

*From June 2 at 1:41PM for West Fork San Jacinto at US59*

This is a huge advance over everything before it. But unfortunately, it only predicts flood heights at gages. Most people don’t know how their distance from a gage, elevation changes, and local topography will affect the peak at their home or business. Especially if they are new to a neighborhood, like the woman below.

Debris line on side of house five feet up — *Kingwood resident who moved here in January from a desert, then promptly flooded in May.*

Real-Time Flood Mapping

So, what alternatives do people have? Harris County’s Flood Warning System shows you how far water is from your home in near real time.

The mapping feature is a great enhancement compared to the NWS site in some ways. It shows the extent of flooding between gages.

But unfortunately, the Flood Warning System won’t tell you how close water will get at its peak.

So when you realize you need to get out, you may not have enough time to make thorough preparations.

*Screen capture from Harris County Flood Warning System. It shows current flooding, but not peak flooding.*

Trying to Integrate the Best of Both Approaches

Those with knowledge of prior floods may be able to translate gage readings upstream to their location downstream.

But almost 10% of the American population moves every year. So, five years after a hurricane hit an area, half of the people in a neighborhood would likely have little knowledge or memory of it.

More than real-time inundation mapping, we need predictive inundation mapping.

Legal Concerns over Bad Information

One official I talked to for this article feared such a system. What if the prediction were wrong? What if it implied someone would be safe and then they died while evacuating? Imagine the legal liability!

As a result, officials often err on the side of caution. They may issue orders to evacuate in much wider areas than necessary.

We saw that during the May flood this year. The county issued evacuation maps that showed the extent of flooding during Harvey. As a result, people may be less inclined to evacuate for the next storm, even if it is warranted.

In extreme cases, such over-reaction has resulted in harm. Those who have lived in the Houston area for 20 years or more may remember the disastrous mass evacuation during Hurricane Rita in 2005.

One hundred thirteen people died from Rita in Texas, 107 of which were associated with the evacuation of the Houston metropolitan area.

Need for Better Tools

A former HCFCD employee told me that HCFCD has been working on a predictive inundation mapping system for years. But, says the source, it’s incredibly complex and requires validation.

Validation involves confirming predictions against real-world storms. However, giant, widespread floods don’t just happen every year. And every storm is unique, as we saw in yesterday’s post about the early May storm. Some areas may get feet of rain, while others get inches.

You just can’t generalize. Every storm is unique. And referring to historical analog storms may fail for several reasons:

Massive developments, such as Colony Ridge, may have changed the hydrology of the watershed. Colony Ridge has grown 50% larger than Manhattan in just ten years.
Rainfall intensity may vary in storms, even if rainfall totals don’t.
Unequal rainfall distribution means that flood peaks may combine in different ways at different times.

Potential Ways to Handle Uncertainty

To help handle those contingencies, predictive inundation maps could have buffer zones showing degrees of uncertainty. For instance, “If you’re in Zone A, there’s a 100% chance you will flood. In Zone B, 50%. In Zone C, 25%, etc.”

Plus, the legislature could craft legal protections for agencies making such predictions based on the best available information and science.

We need a public debate. Perhaps an even better approach will emerge from the dialog.

That would be far preferable, in my opinion, to causing immense anxiety among millions.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/2/24

2469 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Area Leaders Meet with GLO Commissioner Buckingham

Harris County and the Houston area are receiving $863 million from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) via the Texas General Land Office (GLO) for disaster relief and flood mitigation. So, on Thursday, April 25, 2024, GLO Commissioner Dr. Dawn Buckingham met with a group of Lake-Houston-Area leaders to discuss the area’s flood mitigation needs.

The meeting, arranged by State Representative Charles Cunningham, also included Director Tina Petersen of the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD); Director Thao Costis of Harris County Community Services (CSD); Humble Mayor Norman Funderburk; and Dustin Hodges, Chief of Staff for City of Houston Council Member Fred Flickinger.

(L to R) Dustin Hodges; Tina Petersen; Thao Costis; Dr. Dawn Buckingham; Rep. Charles Cunningham; Norman Funderburk; Alice Rekeweg; Scott Elmer, HCFCD; and Kathleen Jordan.

Projects Vie for Funding

As reported on 4/23, Buckingham was in Houston to discuss Disaster Relief and Mitigation projects totaling $863 million. But there are more deserving projects than money to fund them all. So Buckingham, her team, HCFCD and CSD met with area leaders to discuss needs.

The GLO administers the distribution of HUD funds in Texas. Among Lake Houston Area projects discussed for funding were:

Taylor Gully Channel Improvements ($25.5 Million)
Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin – Compartment 1 ($13.3 Million)
Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin – Compartment 2 ($17.5 Million)
Mercer Park Drainage Improvements ($5.3 Million)
Mercer Detention Basin ($15.4 Million)
Mercer Botanic Garden Restroom Improvements (0.6 Million)
New Humble Fire Station ($4.5 Million)

No commitments were made at the meeting, but the mood was positive and everyone left smiling.

Buckingham is still collecting information. She listened attentively, asked probing questions and left with a better understanding of the area’s needs.

Splitting the Woodridge Basin into two phases helps ensure that at least one compartment will get funded and provide enough mitigation to let the Taylor Gully Channel Improvements move forward.

Ramsey Hosting Infrastructure Meeting at KHS Tonight

Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey’s Office will host a meeting about local infrastructure at Kingwood High School tonight. The meeting will include representatives from the City of Houston, San Jacinto River Authority, Congressman Dan Crenshaw’s office, and Harris County Flood Control District.

6:30-8:00 PM

The infrastructure meeting will follow an open-house format. After brief remarks, residents will be free to mingle with representatives from the various organizations at tables set up throughout the room. So you can come and go as you please.

This will give everyone a chance to discuss issues in depth. See details below.

Focus on Infrastructure

Infrastructure covers a lot of territory. Drainage. Roads. Parks. Water. And more.

Ever wonder:

What’s holding up those new floodgates on the Lake Houston Dam?
Whether seasonal lowering of Lake Conroe will return if this turns out to be the hurricane season everyone is predicting?
What is really being done to reduce flood risk in this area?
When will Edgewater Park become a park?
Are mitigation efforts keeping us ahead of upstream development?
Can the SJRA help reduce sedimentation from sand mines?
What happened to the Harris County investigation of Colony Ridge impacts?

So many questions! Tonight’s your chance to ask them. And get answers from people who can do something about your concerns.

Be there. Let local leaders know what your infrastructure priorities are.

Posted by Bob Rehak on on 4/25/24

2431 Days since Hurricane Harvey

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