Tag Archive for: Francine

Latest NHC Forecasts Show Francine Aiming for Louisiana

9/10/24 – Update: At 7 PM, the National Hurricane Center announced that Francine became a hurricane with sustained winds of 75 MPH and higher gusts. By 10:20, hurricane hunter aircraft found sustained winds of 85 MPH with central pressure of 979 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. Other details have not changed much since 4PM. See below.

The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update shows Tropical Storm Francine taking aim for Louisiana. Its impacts will likely diminish in the Houston area. However, tropical storm warnings and watches now extend past Louisiana into Mississippi and Alabama, as the forecast track shifts farther east.

Francine at 3:46 PM CDT, 9/10/24

Francine Winds and Forward Speed

At 4 PM, Francine still packed 65 MPH winds with higher gusts. But NHC expects it to reach hurricane strength tonight. By convention, storms become hurricanes at 74 MPH.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Sabine Pass eastward to Grand Isle. NHC forecasts that Francine could reach 80 knots/92 MPH at landfall in central Louisiana. If accurate, that would put it just shy of a Category 2 hurricane.

Hurricane hunter aircraft found that pressure in the central core had dropped to 987 mb. The storm has become better organized with increased banding.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. To put that in perspective, Beaumont is 175 miles from Baton Rouge, which is in central Louisiana.

Two NHC graphics depict the probability of damaging winds reaching the Houston area. The first shows the north Houston area has a 5-10 percent chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.

The second shows we have a zero percent chance of experiencing hurricane force winds.

Track

According to NHC, Francine has made a turn toward the northeast and increased its forward motion to 10+ MPH. It should reach the central Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. A continued northeastward motion and a faster forward speed are expected tonight and Wednesday.

Surge

We still can expect storm surge in coast areas all the way from Freeport to the Florida Panhandle.

With that comes the associated risk of rip currents.

Rainfall

Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead
to considerable flash and urban flooding in those locations.

However, Jeff Linder, Harris County’s meteorologist less than an inch of rain in the Lake Houston Area.

We barely have a chance for flash flooding. And significant rainfall accumulations will be concentrated east of Texas.

5-Day Accumulated Rainfall Predictions from the National Weather Service

While the Lake Houston Area may be spared the storm’s worst effects, the Mississippi Valley won’t. NHC predicts significant flooding for that area.

Today Is Statistical Peak of Hurricane Season

Today is the statistical peak of hurricane season and Francine makes our sixth named storm in the Atlantic Basin.

To put that in perspective, during the last 30 years, we usually have had 10 named storms by September 4 and 11 by September 14. So despite early dire warnings, this season has been less severe than normal.

The 2017 hurricane season should remind us all that it only takes one storm to change lives forever. Pray for our neighbors to the east. And remain vigilant.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/24

2569 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 69 since Beryl


TS Francine Will Now Likely Strike East of Houston

9/9/24 – 7 PM update – Francine is strengthening faster than expected. Current sustained winds are 65 MPH and NHC predicts the storm will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. The post below was written at 2PM this afternoon.

This morning Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 intensified and formed a center of circulation. With winds currently at 60 MPH, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) named it Tropical Storm Francine. NHC expects it to intensify into a hurricane tomorrow. Francine’s current predicted track will take it inland over Louisiana.

At the moment, models suggest the worst of the storm will miss Houston to the south and the east.

At 1 PM CDT, TS Francine was still between Brownsville, TX and the Yucatan.

Watches and Warnings Now In Effect

As of Monday at 2 PM CDT, NHC had issued the following watches and warnings:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

  • High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
  • Vermilion Bay
  • Lake Maurepas
  • Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

  • The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

  • Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
  • Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
  • East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana
  • East of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River
  • Lake Pontchartrain
  • Lake Maurepas

Likely Track

The western edge of the cone of uncertainty extends westward to far east Texas.

Note, however, that the cone does not indicate the width of the storm. It simply means that the center of the storm has an equal chance of passing over every point within the cone. Because the storm is currently 160 miles wide, if Francine made landfall toward the western edge of the cone, the Houston area could see significant impacts.

Still, models agree that the storm will likely make landfall in Louisiana.

Storm Surge

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to flood from
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…5-10 ft
  • Vermilion Bay…5-10 ft
  • Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA…4-7 ft
  • High Island, TX to Cameron, LA…3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk-reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.

Winds Approaching 86 MPH

Francine is moving at 5 MPH. NHC expects winds to peak at 75 knots (86 MPH) within 48 hours. That would make Francine a Category 1 Hurricane. Cat 1 ranges from 74 to 95 MPH.

The highest winds will likely focus on southern Louisiana.

Tropical storm force winds could be felt in the Houston area as early as late tomorrow afternoon into evening.

However, the most likely arrival times will be approximately 12 hours earlier.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, feels, “There is a 30-50% chance of TS force winds on Wednesday along the upper Texas coast and a 10-20% chance of tropical-storm-force winds across the metro-Houston area.”

“Squalls and bands of rain will begin to move into the outer coastal waters on Tuesday and spread toward the coast. Some of the activity is likely to impact the coastal counties Tuesday night into Wednesday depending on the exact track.”

“Hurricane conditions may graze our outer coastal waters Wednesday afternoon, but at this time the probability of sustained hurricane force winds along the upper Texas coast is generally 5-10% from roughly Freeport to Sabine Pass,” said Lindner.

Rainfall and Flooding

According to NHC, Francine will bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding to portions of the southernmost Texas coast, the Upper Texas Coast, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning.

Lindner predicts, “Rainfall amounts over SE TX have generally been pulled back some with the eastward track shifts and it is likely the core of heaviest rainfall will remain offshore. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected along the coast with amounts of generally less than an inch inland of US 59.”

Whew. Keep your fingers crossed and hope that Francine stays south of us. We haven’t even finished cleanup from Beryl yet.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/9/24 at 2PM

2568 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 63 since Beryl

NHC Issues Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6

9/8/24 – At 4 PM, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 (PTC 6). PTC 6 is currently an elongated area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.

PTC 6 is currently trying to organize over the Bay of Campeche. Satellite photo from Sept. 8, 2024, at 3 PM CDT.

Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday.

Tropical storm force winds should reach the Houston area by Tuesday night. And the system should become a hurricane by Wednesday afternoon. (See graphics below.)

Tropical-storm-force winds already extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), primarily west of the center.

Wind-Speed Classifications

Tropical cyclones rotate counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. They are classified as follows:

  • Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 knots) or less.
  • Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 knots).
  • Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher.
  • Major Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph (96 knots) or higher, corresponding to a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Models suggest the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 should become well defined by tomorrow afternoon. Until then, the track forecast remains very uncertain.

Life-Threatening Storm Surge

According to the NHC, it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts. However, NHC warns that the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are increasing for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines beginning Tuesday night.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding.

Graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6

 
CenterPoint Warning

At 2:45 CDT, CenterPoint Energy texted warnings to customers. “We continue to monitor and prepare for a potential tropical system in the Gulf which may impact the Greater Houston area over the next few days.”

The text continued, “We encourage you to prepare an emergency plan. Customers who depend on electricity for life-sustaining equipment are encouraged to make alternate arrangements for on-site backup capabilities or other alternatives in the event of loss of electric service. For safety tips, visit CenterPointEnergy.com/StormCenter.”

After Beryl, I purchased power system that can be charged by solar panels. I’m feeling pretty good about that purchase now.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/8/24 based on information from NHC

2567 Days since Hurricane Harvey