subsidence

MoCo Water War Leaves Unintended Casualties

8/18/25 – The Montgomery County (MoCo) water war has produced a number of unintended casualties in the last decade. They include:

  • Water ratepayers
  • Flood victims
  • Conroe’s reputation as the fastest growing large city in America
  • Developers
  • Area infrastructure
  • Homeowners living near fault lines
  • Neighbors in Harris County
  • Groundwater storage capacity to help the area bridge droughts
  • Science

Unfortunately, those who profited from excessive groundwater withdrawals aren’t the ones paying the price.

Subsidence problems in southern Montgomery County – once thought to be solved by the San Jacinto River Authority’s (SJRA) Groundwater Reduction Plan (GRP) – have recurred. And despite settlement of a long running lawsuit on 8/14/25, there’s still plenty of hurt to go around.

How It All Started

To comply with the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District‘s (LSGCD) rules to reduce groundwater pumping in Montgomery County, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) introduced its Groundwater Reduction Plan (GRP) in 2009. The plan addressed the need to ensure adequate water supply for the county’s rapidly growing population using surface water from Lake Conroe

The LSGCD’s rules, adopted in 2006, mandated a 30% reduction in overall groundwater pumping. In 2010, LSGCD also capped groundwater use, starting in 2016, at 64,000 acre-feet per year.

That gave the SJRA time to sell bonds, complete a half-billion dollar surface-water-treatment plant at Lake Conroe, and build a 55-mile pipeline-distribution system.

Then, the water war erupted.

Defectors Undermine Success

When water rates went up to pay for surface water, the City of Conroe, City of Magnolia, Quadvest, and Woodlands Oaks sued to get out of their GRP contracts. That, in turn, led to:

  • Conroe’s nine-year legal battle that made several round trips to the Texas Supreme Court.
  • Rate increases on participants still in the plan to make up for shortfalls created by those who left it.
  • Legal and fiscal uncertainty that burdened other GRP participants left covering shortfalls caused by the non-paying entities.
  • Uncertainty about the ability to service debt on bonds.
  • Significant legal fees affecting both sides, including water ratepayers.

Subsidence: Briefly Halted

Ironically, all this happened as the groundwater reduction plan started to reduce subsidence. Areas in The Woodlands that had subsided consistently for years saw subsidence virtually level off. But the success was brief.

Subsidence in The Woodlands at the monitoring station with the longest history. When surface water became available, subsidence virtually plateaued…until political changes at the LSGCD.

The leveling off lasted between three and four years. Then subsidence accelerated again. The trigger this time: politics.

A movement to make the LSGCD board elected rather than appointed opened the door for privately held groundwater providers. They backed a slate of candidates that favored pumping cheaper groundwater. And the groundwater pumpers won. Soon thereafter, unrestricted groundwater pumping resumed.

The newly elected board was sworn in during November, 2018, shortly before the graph above turned down again.

Groundwater Levels Decline with Changes in Groundwater Regulations

The newly elected LSGCD board removed conservation rules from their regulatory plan, leading to a rejection of the plan by the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB). This introduced uncertainty regarding the regulatory framework for groundwater management and the GRP’s role within it. 

The protracted legal battles, settled last Thursday, centered on the validity and enforceability of GRP contracts and the fees charged for surface water. 

Several cities disputed the SJRA’s ability to raise rates for surface water. Conroe initially refused to pay a rate increase implemented in 2016, and Magnolia followed suit. The SJRA responded by suing the cities for breach of contract. 

These legal challenges created significant financial strain for the SJRA and its other customers. Unpaid fees caused shortfalls that had to be covered by other GRP plan participants. The recent settlement has resolved the dispute between SJRA and Conroe. But legal battles may still continue with others.

Meanwhile, southern Montgomery County has experienced the steepest well declines in the entire region.

From Page 23 of the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District 2024 Annual Groundwater Report

From 1977 to 2025, maximum water level decline in the Chicot-Evangeline (undifferentiated) aquifer occurred in The Woodlands where water levels fell more than 400 feet. Likewise, water levels in the Jasper aquifer declined more than 250 feet near The Woodlands during the same time period.

Every water well drilled into those aquifers that USGS monitors in Montgomery County with the exception of two experienced significant water-level declines since the LSGCD board became elected. See below.

From USGS 2024 report on groundwater level changes. See Figure 7. Virtually all MoCo wells drilled into the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers declined between 20 and 50 feet from 2019 to 2024.
From USGS 2024 report on groundwater level changes. See Figure 11. All MoCo wells drilled in the Jasper aquifer declined between 20 and 50 feet from 2019 to 2024.

Clearly, the trend is not sustainable.

Flooding Worsened

As subsidence worsened, so did flooding in many parts of The Woodlands, especially those near streams whose gradients changed and those who lived near down-thrust faults that created bowls in the landscape.

Water Capacity Crunch Led to Development Moratorium

The U.S. Census Bureau rated Conroe the fastest‑growing large city in America for the period from July 1, 2015, to July 1, 2016. However, within several years, Conroe experienced a water-capacity shortfall and imposed a development moratorium (Aug 29, 2024).

TCEQ later approved a temporary reduction in the required water-supply allocation per connection—from 0.60 to 0.46 gpm—so projects could restart under tighter per-lot assumptions. For a year, that pause reportedly stalled plats, permits, and site work citywide

It even affected large commercial projects. The Conroe Courier reported that Kelsey-Seybold was considering pulling a $24 million medical facility. Construction could not move forward because of concerns about water infrastructure capability.

With the settlement announced last Friday, Conroe has ended the development moratorium for now, but projects must use the TCEQ-approved 0.46 gpm through Feb. 2029. But the City’s plan reviewers will reportedly press for conservation fixtures/phasing until new supply is online.

The Greater Houston Homebuilders Association said the moratorium had had “detrimental effects on every facet of our industry from concrete to roofers, to pools to developers and builders.”

Under the terms of last week’s settlement, SJRA will provide additional water to Conroe. Heather Ramsey of the SJRA said that, “The additional surface water should keep them from using additional groundwater to accommodate their growth.” But in the meantime…

Homes Near Fault Lines Damaged

Deregulation of aquifer groundwater withdrawal in Montgomery County by the LSGCD led to declines in area water wells.

As Conroe and surrounding areas pumped more and more groundwater, subsidence continued. That triggered geologic faults in The Woodlands, which damaged homes.

Home split by subsidence
Woodlands home split in half when groundwater extraction led to subsidence that activated a fault-line.
Steps in front of same house dropped so far, they had to be replaced and are now twice their original height.

It also damaged infrastructure.

Subsidence induced by groundwater pumping
Faulting damage exacerbated by subsidence due to excessive groundwater extraction at The Woodlands High School.

Two subsidence experts in The Woodlands gave me a tour of three fault lines. Street after street showed dips, cracks, and storm sewer damage aligned precisely with the fault lines. Some of the repairs reportedly cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Many Paid the Price

Excessive groundwater withdrawals are also tilting Lake Houston. The area near the dam is subsiding much slower than the area in the headwaters of the Lake near the Montgomery County Line.

I listed science as the last victim in the water war. At some point during this skirmish, subsidence deniers started trotting out their own studies claiming huge volumes of water from the aquifers above could be produced without adverse consequences.

The loss of groundwater storage capacity due to subsidence will also leave Montgomery County more vulnerable to future droughts. Groundwater backs up surface water supplies. And now there will be less groundwater storage volume.

Someday, this will become a cautionary case study for other areas that think of groundwater as an unlimited resource.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/19/25

2912 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Subsidence around Conroe may be affected by lawsuit settlement

SJRA, Conroe Settle Lawsuit after Nine Years

8/15/25 – The San Jacinto River Authority and City of Conroe issued a joint press release about the settlement this morning of their nine-year legal battle over water rates. This press release just came in. I’ve added subheads to help highlight key points. Otherwise, the text between the lines is verbatim:


SJRA Directors Unanimously Approve

Conroe, Texas—Today the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) Board of Directors unanimously approved the execution of a Mutual Release and Settlement Agreement with the City of Conroe to end current litigation related to the SJRA Groundwater Reduction Plan (GRP). The City of Conroe considered and approved the Mutual Release and Settlement Agreement at a City Council meeting on Thursday.

End to Legal Squabbles is Mutually Beneficial

SJRA General Manager, Aubrey Spear, said “We appreciate the City of Conroe’s efforts in working with SJRA in reaching this settlement agreement. Putting this litigation behind us is best for all GRP participants and their rate payers. With Conroe’s payment and savings on legal fees, the wholesale water rates will go down. Ending the litigation also strengthens our partnership with Conroe to continue supplying water to its growing population.” 

Conroe City Administrator, Gary Scott, said “After months of negotiations, I am pleased with an outcome that is truly beneficial to both parties. Securing additional water is critical to Conroe’s economic growth and long-term vitality. We recognize and appreciate the efforts of the San Jacinto River Authority in working with us. This agreement represents a shared commitment to the betterment of us all. This is a historic decision that sets Conroe on the path to the future.”  

The agreement settles legal disputes between the parties dating back to 2016 when the City of Conroe disputed increases in wholesale water rates related to SJRA’s 2010 Groundwater Reduction Plan contract. 

Conroe Agrees to Pay Full Amount

In the settlement, the City of Conroe agrees to pay the full amount that it has short-paid SJRA since 2017 to the present that it has been holding in escrow. Conroe also agrees to begin paying the current rate for treated surface water from Lake Conroe and the groundwater pumpage fee going forward. 

SJRA Agrees to Provide More Surface Water and More

On the other hand, SJRA agrees to provide Conroe with additional surface water, reduce the term of Conroe’s GRP contract from 80 years to 40 years, forgive penalties and fees on past due amounts, and clarify in the contract that there is no obligation by the City of Conroe to participate in future GRP phases or expansion of the GRP water treatment plant.

Documents Not Yet Available 

Agreement documents are in the process of being fully executed.


 Reliance on Groundwater Has Contributed to Subsidence

This is good news for both parties. It will reduce the amount they spend on legal fees that rate- and taxpayers have funded.

However, the press release did not address how it will affect the amount of groundwater that Conroe pumps aside from saying that SJRA will provide Conroe with “additional surface water.”

Subsidence in southern Montgomery County including Conroe and the Woodlands is among the most severe in the region. SJRA’s Water Treatment Plant and the Groundwater Reduction Plan were at the heart of the lawsuit. Both were intended to reduce subsidence. And they did briefly when the plant first came online in 2015. Then the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District (LSGCD) started pumping huge amounts of groundwater, claiming there was no connection between the loss of groundwater and subsidence.

LSGCD says on their Resources Page under the subsidence tab that, “…the rate at which [their] compaction occurs is 10 times (10x) slower than the rate at which compaction occurs in Harris County.”

Regardless, a huge area is still sinking 8 to 12 millimeters per year. And most of Montgomery County is sinking at least 6 according to this subsidence map recently published by the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District.

Subsidence Has Triggered Faults

The subsidence has triggered faults in the area. That in turn has damaged homes, streets and drainage infrastructure. I spent a whole day last week taking a fault tour of the Woodlands with area residents. Below are three of dozens of pictures I took at day.

Fault line under the foundation cracked this Woodland’s home’s slab and walls.
Front steps are now twice their original height because the front yard sank relative to the front door.
Faulting damage in parking lot of Woodland’s High School.

Millimeters may not sound like much. But 12 millimeters per year is half an inch per year. During the life of a 30-year mortgage, that’s 15 inches…plus a lot of home and street repairs, and a lot of foundation leveling.

Inland subsidence has also been linked to flooding. It can change the gradient of streams and rivers, so water moves more slowly and builds higher during floods.

And differential subsidence (between two areas) can reduce the height of structures above floodplains. For instance, the subsidence rate in Conroe is far higher than subsidence at the Lake Houston Dam. That means homes north of the dam have less freeboard (height above expected floods). Said another way, it’s like tilting Lake Houston toward the homes north of the dam.

SJRA has not yet responded to questions about how the settlement will affect Conroe’s groundwater pumping.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/15/25

2908 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Lake Meritage drained

Lake Meritage Drained into City Storm Sewer

4/7/25 – Last Saturday, 2.5 inches of rain turned the Meritage construction site in Atascocita into Lake Meritage. But by this morning, contractors were draining Lake Meritage into a City of Houston storm sewer.

Close examination of aerial photos shows a series of trenches cut under silt fences to let the water drain from the site quickly and bypass the usually slow filtration process that the fences provide.

Contractors had also cut a series of trenches within the site to move trapped stormwater toward the street. And an excavator was scooping muddy stormwater from the beginnings of a detention basin into yet another trench that led toward the exit rows.

Lake Meritage 24 Hours After Storm

Here’s what the site looked like 24 hours ago.

Meritage Phase II (right) on April 6, 2025 24 hours after 2.5 inch rain

Pictures and Videos Taken Another 24 Hours after Storm

Here’s the same area today.

Meritage Phase II (right) 24 hours after photo above.

Where did all the water go?

Interior channels brought the stormwater toward the street…
The excavator (center left) was scooping buckets of water out of the detention basin and dumping it into another channel that led toward the street.
and a series of shovel-wide trenches let water leak out from under the silt fence.

Much of the muck flowed through a roadside swale to a storm sewer inlet. See below.

10-Second Video by Michelle Chavez, who lives next to the Meritage construction site.

But not all of the muck stayed in the swale. The next ten-second video shows part of it running down the street. There was so much at one point that contractors had to partially block it off.

Another 10-second video showing stormwater entering street. Supplied by passing motorist.
Motorist tracks overflowing silty stormwater down street for another 18 seconds until it flows into City storm sewer inlet.

When I drove by about an hour after the last video was shot, the flow through the street had ended and someone had installed a screen over the inlet that’s clearly not on the video. The screen could make them appear compliant with their Stormwater Pollution Protection Plan.

Silt Fence Repairs Not a Priority

Unfortunately, the contractors did not drain the water invading neighbors’ yards. And repairing damaged silt fences that protected neighbors from the muck was not their highest priority.

Broken silt fence and runoff on neighboring properties as of noon 4/7/25.

To File a Complaint

Practices like those above are usually discouraged by the Harris County Engineer and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.

If you’re concerned about runoff that floods your property or potentially clogs your storm drains, please file a complaint.

Harris County Engineer

Phone: 713-274-3600 Monday Through Friday 8 AM to 5 PM

File a complaint online at: https://epermits.harriscountytx.gov/External_Complaints.aspx

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ)

For instructions to file a complaint, visit: https://www.tceq.texas.gov/compliance/complaints.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/7/2025

2778 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.