Interactive Flood-Bond Map from KTRK Reveals Voting Patterns Throughout County

Want to know where all the support for the flood bond came from? Want to know where the highest turnouts were? Want to see where the largest percentages of NO votes came from? Instead of pouring over the canvass spreadsheets until your eyeballs bleed, now you can get it at a glance thanks to some amazing work by the good folks at ABC13, KTRK-TV. Click on the map below and you will be taken to their web site. There are two layers to this “heat map.” A heat map reveals geographic patterns in data.

  • First select the layer you want: you have a choice of two: No Votes or Voter Turnout.
  • The darker colors represent higher numbers.
  • See the legend by clicking on the arrow to the right of the layer name.
  • Then click on a precinct, any precinct. A box will pop up that reveals:
    • The total number of registered voters in the precinct
    • The number who voted
    • The percentage of turnout
    • The number who voted FOR
    • The number who voted AGAINST

It’s that simple!

Click on map to go to KTRK’s website where you can play with the interactive heat map

KTRK Interactive Heat Map showing voter turnout for Harris County Flood Bond Election. Click on map to view interactive version.

A shoutout to Keaton Fuchs, a KTRK producer who has been working on making this technology available to all of us.

Posted by Bob Rehak on September 6, 2018

373 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Kingwood Precincts Deliver 5 of Top 8 Turnout Percentages County Wide for Flood Bond

Long-passive Kingwood voters have awoken and become a political force. The Harris County Clerk has posted the canvass for the recent flood bond election. It shows that Kingwood had five of the top eight precincts in Harris County as measured by the percentage of registered voters who turned out to vote.

Kingwood Voters Almost Triple County Average

Kingwood voters turned out at a rate of 16.97% compared to 6.69% for the county overall – almost triple the county average. Kingwood voters also exceeded the county average when it came to voting FOR the bond: 89.35% voted FOR in Kingwood compared to 85.34% FOR in all of Harris County.

On Closer Review, Kingwood Does Even Better

The turnout percentages are even stronger than they first appear. Of the three precincts that had higher turnout percentages (906, 281, 403), Precinct #906 had only 27 registered voters and nine voted (7 FOR, 2 Against) giving them the highest percentage of 33.33%. If you consider 906 a statistical anomaly, Kingwood precincts took five of the top seven places for turnout percentage.

Harris County Precincts with Greater than 20% Turnout in Flood Bond Referendum

Anomalies

Precinct 281 had a turnout of 27.13 percent and overwhelmingly voted for the bond (602 to 27). That’s a ratio of more than 22 to 1.

However, the precinct that voted most overwhelmingly for the bond in percentage terms was 361. Every single one of the 119 voters there voted FOR the bond; not one person voted against it.

Only one precinct in the entire county voted AGAINST the bond. Of the seven people who voted in Precinct 767, only 3 voted FOR and 4 voted against.

For More Information

Click here to view or download the entire Flood Bond Canvass.

Click here to download a complete Flood Bond AnalysisFloodBondAnalysis for all Humble, Kingwood, Huffman and Atascocita precincts in Microsoft Excel format.

What Does Canvass Show?

Two things become apparent when you cross-reference these numbers to a county precinct map. First, in Kingwood, people closer to the river voted in higher percentages than those who live farther from the river. Second, Kingwood precincts that did not flood turned out at higher rates than many other parts of the county that did flood.

This tells me that even after Harvey, Kingwood residents still feel fierce loyalty to their community. We know we live in one of the greatest communities in the country and we will fight to protect it. I trust the City, County and State will take away the same message from these numbers.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/5/2018

372 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Good News for Kingwood Residents along Ben’s Branch and Taylor Gully

Note: This story has been corrected. See the replacement post.

The City of Houston has finally signed and delivered the easements that will allow Harris County Flood Control to maintain Ben’s Branch and Taylor Gully in Kingwood.

Clearing the Way for Ben’s Branch Maintenance

Jessica Beemer, Chief of Staff for City Council Member Dave Martin said, “As of this morning, the City has completed its research regarding the orphan channels in Kingwood. The conveyance documents have been delivered to Harris County Flood Control District’s attorney for review and signature.”

Trees blocking Ben’s Branch. A common site for miles.

Many homes and businesses flooded along Ben’s Branch during Harvey. One-hundred percent of the businesses in Town Center, at least four apartment complexes, the Kingwood Public Library, a retirement home, Kings Harbor and the Enclave flooded partially as a result of Ben’s Branch.

The county identified sedimentation and fallen trees that were blocking this major stream, but legally could not address these issues until receiving the paper work.

Just yesterday, I posted about problems with this paperwork.

Hopefully, the County will now expedite remediation. I’m sure people along the stream will sleep better tonight.

A shout out to Barbara Hilburn in Kingwood Lakes who has been leading the charge for Kingwood residents on internal drainage improvements since Harvey.

Posted by Bob Rehak on September 5, 2018

372 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Year-Two Priorities: One Year After Harvey, Here’s What We Need to Do

In the first year since Hurricane Harvey, wheels were set in motion on many flood mitigation projects, but very little has actually changed on the ground. Below are where things stand on 12 measures designed to help reduce the risk of another major storm. Implementing them should be top priorities for Year Two.

  1. Additional Dredging – After Harvey, we found the San Jacinto clogged with sediment. The Army Corps of Engineers spent the last six months studying the river and prepping to dredge some of the worst blockages. Dredging should start this Thursday, September 6. However, the Corps will not address the entire river.

    A giant sand dune has formed at the mouth of the west fork of the San Jacinto. It is not being addressed by the Army Corps dredging project but should be. Thousands of homes upstream from the blockage flooded during Harvey.

    In fact, they are leaving the biggest blockage at the mouth of the West Fork intact because part of it existed before Harvey and FEMA money can only be used on damage that occurred during Harvey. If we can find money elsewhere to address the mouth bar before the current dredging project is completed next April, we may be able to save $18 million in mobilization and demobilization fees. But even if we manage that, there will still be approximately ten more miles of the East and West Forks to dredge. And they should be dredged regularly to prevent future buildups. Maintenance dredging has not even registered on the radar yet.

  2. Additional Gates for Lake Houston Dam – In Year One, a preliminary study was completed showing that additional gates could lower the level of a Harvey-like flood by  1.9 feet. An application for funding is pending with FEMA (along with 800 other projects). The benefit/cost analysis was extremely positive. Virtually everyone supports the project including the mayor and governor. Preliminary engineering studies have reportedly begun. And the County has dedicated $20 million from the flood bond to support the $70 million project (See item CI-028 on page 9). However, the source for the final $50 million remains uncertain. The ball is in the city’s and Coastal Water Authority’s court on this one. The City owns the dam and the CWA manages it. Hopefully, the Mayor and Council Member Dave Martin will have progress to report in their upcoming town hall meeting Tuesday, October 9 at 6:30 p.m. at the Kingwood Community Center.
  3. Ditch Maintenance – The City and County reportedly agreed to divvy up maintenance to reduce duplication of efforts. The City will focus on below-ground drainage and the County will focus on above-ground. However, the City’s legal department has not completed easements that would allow the County to begin work. The county flood bond freed up maintenance money in the the flood control district’s budget. Therefore the county could begin work on projects such as clearing Ben’s Branch immediately. The County flood bond also included $40 million for channel improvements. Work on the Huffman side of the river was approved last week and should start shortly.
  4. Additional Upstream Detention – The idea: to reduce the amount of water coming downstream during a flood and release it gradually after the flood. Voters approved money for building additional detention on the East and/or West Forks in the flood bond. Large tracts of land are becoming increasing difficult to find.  Therefore, the County may have to focus on multiple smaller projects scattered throughout the watershed. The SJRA watershed study (see item CI-019 on page 9), which still is not fully funded, will need to be completed before the county and SJRA can identify where the most effective locations for dams will be.
  5. SJRA Watershed Study – Is still not fully funded or approved by FEMA. The total cost is minuscule compared to other projects, yet a draft of the proposed survey specs has been circulating since March.
  6. Improved Flood Awareness and Warning Systems – The County has installed half a dozen new gages that will enhance early warning capabilities. They will help river forecasters see water coming at us from father away, so we have more warning time. The county has also created a near-real-time inundation mapping system that they activate during floods. See HarrisCountyFWS.org when a flood threatens. You can see down to the block level where water is spreading. The SJRA is also installing more gages farther upstream.  Those should enhance awareness and warning time even more.
  7. Improved Inter-Agency Cooperation and Public Notification Systems – Texas House and Senate hearings held in the wake of Harvey identified these two areas as needing improvement – everywhere, not just in the Lake Houston area. Evacuation warnings did not reach people in time. Many were caught sleeping as floodwaters rose in their homes. There were two issues: a breakdown in the chain of communication and systems that can wake people up in emergencies, especially when the power is out. It worries me somewhat that we’re focusing so much of our time and attention on upgrading Internet systems. The Internet, cell towers, and power are among the first casualties of a storm. Whatever happened to good old sirens?
  8. Flood Plain Map Updates – Harvey demonstrated that our flood plain maps are obsolete and need to be updated. Of the 154,170 homes flooded, 48,850 were within the 1% (100-yr) floodplain, 34,970 within the .2% (500-yr) floodplain, and 70,370 were outside of the 1% (100-yr) and .2% (500-yr) floodplains. 64% of the homes flooded did not have a flood insurance policy in effect. This scary statistic resulted primarily from two things: bad assumptions about flood frequency and relentless upstream development. The former blindsided us. The latter increased the scope and rapidity of downstream flooding. Harvey was the fifth so-called 500-year storm to hit the Lake Houston area in 23 years. Our flood plain maps desperately need updating. So do our statistical assumptions. Finally, people need to wise up about flood plain maps. Being on one side of a line or another does not guarantee immunity from flooding. People should not think of boundaries on flood plain maps as binary. In reality, the boundaries are wide and fuzzy, much like the cone of uncertainty for hurricane path predictions.
  9. Development Regulations – Upstream development causes downstream flooding. It overwhelms systems established decades ago. No one seems to have an appetite for regulating upstream development. So people downstream must build new homes higher, raise older homes, improve drainage systems, and move farther back from rivers, bayous and drainage ditches. We have to quit pretending that so-called 500-year storms happen 499 years apart and start building realistic assumptions into building permits.
  10. Sand Mine Regulation – Sedimentation in the San Jacinto River didn’t cause flooding, but it exacerbated it. A large portion of that sedimentation came from 20 square miles upstream from us. All but one mine is built in the floodway. If we want to reduce dredging intervals and costs, we should consider pushing these mines farther back from the river. There’s plenty of sand outside of the floodway. However, the miners will resist this. It will be a major political battle. The legislature meets in January. That doesn’t give us much time. TACA has already quadrupled their lobbying budget to fight us.
  11. Project Managers – Flood mitigation is like a jigsaw puzzle that moves while you’re putting it together. It’s also like trying to make committee decisions with committees that never meet. You have multiple decision makers at City, County, State and Federal levels, none of whom are accountable to each other, and many of whom have conflicting interests. As a result, projects drift. Details get lost. Approvals don’t come in time to save money. One party may not even be aware of the deadlines that another faces. In such cases, project managers can make a huge difference. They constantly monitor all the moving parts of a project and prod people to make sure milestones are met. Good project managers can increase productivity by 20%. If you’re spending $2.5 billion on flood mitigation, that could save half a billion dollars. Each watershed should have its own certified project manager who champions that area. Too many details are getting lost in the shuffle, holding projects up, and potentially escalating costs, as with the mouth bar.
  12. Lowering Lakes Temporarily and Seasonally – The City of Houston and SJRA made the only physical change since Harvey that will help protect us from flooding. The SJRA board voted to lower the level of Lake Conroe during the rainiest months in spring and the peak of hurricane season by up to two feet. The City also started lowering the level of Lake Houston in advance of major storms. If the National Weather Service predicts greater than three inches of rain within the San Jacinto River basin in a 48-hour period, Coastal Water Authority will lower Lake Houston to by one foot to 41.5 feet. These measures create more capacity within Lakes Houston and Conroe to absorb water that might otherwise flood us. The measures will be re-eavaluated once dredging is complete and more floodgates have been added to Lake Houston.

Posted by Bob Rehak on September 4, 2018

371 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Potential Tropical Cyclone #7 Headed into Gulf

At 2am EDT today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an update on a potential tropical cyclone headed toward Louisiana.  Maximum sustained winds at this time are 30mph. The NHC predicts the disturbance will become a tropical storm by tonight.

At this moment, it looks like the storm will make landfall east of the Houston area, putting us on the dry side of the storm. However, the NHC also warns that the forecast track could vary by more than 170 miles and that the width of the storm may exceed the cone of uncertainty shown below. This will increase our rainfall chances significantly later in the week.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 7 is headed toward Louisiana and Mississippi. If current forecasts are accurate, Texas will be on the dry side of the storm.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Mississippi-Alabama border westward to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect reaching from the Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

The system is moving near 15 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys or the southern portion of the Florida peninsula today, move over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by this evening, and reach the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours is high at 80 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days remains high at 80 percent.
  • The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE:

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Destin Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border…1 to 2 ft.
  • Mississippi-Alabama border to the Mouth of Mississippi River…2 to
    4 ft.
  • Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border…1 to
    2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

RAINFALL:

The disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central Gulf Coast by the middle of the week.

WIND:

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday.  Winds should reach 40mph by 9/4 and 50 mph by 9/5. Maximum winds inland should reach 30 knots with gusts to 40.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

NOTE: Errors for track have averaged 150 nautical miles (NM) on day 4, 175 NM on day 5, and near 15 KT each day for intensity. So stay alert and check forecasts several times each day. The current (unrelated) low pressure disturbance moving onshore is expected to bring widespread rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with 5 to 6 inches likely closer to the coast. If #7 stays on the current track, expect another 1 to 4 inches of rain. If it tracks more westward and slows down, we could see quite a bit more than that, according to Space City Weather. However, current forecasts predict rainfall toward the lower end of that spectrum.

LOCAL IMPACT FROM CURRENT STORM

As of 7pm Sunday night, Jeff Lindner, meteorologist for Harris County Flood Control predicted that the greatest impact from the current storm would be concentrated near the coast. He predicts street flooding is the largest threat. “Most creeks and bayous will be able to handle this amount of rainfall as long as it does not all fall in an hour or two. I think the biggest threats will be street flooding with hourly rates of 2-3 inches where any banding or training develops.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/3/2018 @2:48 am.

370 Days since Hurricane Harvey

 

Tropical Formation Chances Increase to 40 Percent Over Next 5 Days

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances for tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days to 40%.

Tropical Wave Moving into Gulf

Forecasters expect a tropical wave nearing the southeast Bahamas this morning to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. There, it will find upper level winds more favorable for tropical cyclone formation.

The National Hurricane Center gives the disturbance marked with an orange X a 40% chance of development as it moves toward the Gulf in the next five days.

Several global models now show the formation of at least a tropical storm. “The overall potential appears to be increasing that a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico between Tuesday and Thursday next week and threaten the US Gulf coast,” says Jeff Lindner, chief meteorologist with Harris County Flood Control.

Conditions Favorable for Tropical Development

There is currently no defined surface low pressure system, so it is uncertain where an actual center may form. However, high pressure building over the US east coast this week will likely force the storm to track WNW across the Gulf of Mexico. How fast and how strong this high builds will determine the exact track of the storm. Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico look fairly favorable for development so it will need to be watched closely.

Rainfall Chances Increasing

Lindner is not making any changes to the local forecasts at this time since the uncertainty remains high. However, he says, “A wet pattern will be developing today-Monday as a tropical wave south of the Louisiana coast moves into the area. Rainfall amounts over the next 3 days may average 1-2 inches with isolated amounts of 3-5 inches.”

“Residents along the TX/LA coasts,” says Lindner, “should monitor the progress of the tropical wave over the next 5 days.” He urges residents to check forecasts daily.

Check the National Hurricane Center five-day forecasts directly for constant updates.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/1/18

368 Days Since Hurricane Harvey

Lake Conroe Seasonal Lowering Reaches Target Level at Peak of Hurricane Season

Earlier this year, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) voted to lower the level of Lake Conroe during the peak of hurricane season. The purpose: to provide an additional buffer against flooding for downstream residents until the river could be dredged. The SJRA has now reached its target of 199 mean feet above seal level (MSL).

Temporary Lowering Accommodates Dredging

The SJRA stated, “This was the target elevation established by the San Jacinto River Authority and the City of Houston to create a temporary flood mitigation benefit while dredging activities take place in the lower part of the San Jacinto River.”

The lowering happened gradually during August. To avoid downstream flooding, the  SJRA released water at the rate of 200-300 cubic feet per second. That amounted to  about an inch per day. The exact amount varied due to occasional rain and evaporation.

Lake Conroe Will Return to Normal Level After September

“Now that the target elevation has been reached,” said the SJRA, “Reservoir operators have shut off the release of water from the dam and will operate with the goal of maintaining the current elevation through the end of September. After September, any rainfall flowing into the reservoir will be held, and the reservoir will be allowed to return to the normal elevation of 201 ft-msl.”

Update on Dredging Schedule

As tropical activity heats up, this is good news. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is nearing completion of the assembly of the first of two dredges and miles of dredge pipe. The contractor for the Corps’ Emergency West Fork Dredging Project, Great Lakes, is expected to begin dredging on September 6. Dredging will extend from River Grove Park on the west to Chimichurri’s on the east. It’s not clear yet, which end the contractor will begin on. Great Lakes expects to complete the project, weather permitting, by April of next year.

Posted September 1, 2018 by Bob Rehak

368 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Sand-Mine Fines vs. Lake-Houston-Area Damage During Harvey

Numerous posts on this blog have documented how sand mines made flooding worse during Harvey. Yet the total amount of fines levied against mines in the second half of last year state-wide was less than the average repair cost for one home flooded during Harvey.

Let me state some caveats upfront in this post.

However, NO sediment should have come from any mine. It could have been easily avoided. Most mines choose to operate in the floodway…downstream from a major dam…in a flood prone region. They have other choices.

But they continue to mine in floodways. Partially as a result, millions of cubic yards of sand now clog the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto, creating higher floods on smaller rains. Meanwhile, the public, businesses, FEMA, and insurance companies are stuck with the cleanup bill and increased flood risk.

Having said that, let’s look at the scorecard.

Fines Levied Statewide by TCEQ on Sand Mines in Last 5 Years

TCEQ fines levied since passage of HB571 through end of 2017. Image scanned from TCEQ report to Texas legislature.

That’s about $800 per fine or a half-million dollars total during five years. If you look just at the last half of 2017 (after Harvey), the TCEQ levied about $140,000 in fines STATEWIDE – far less than it cost to repair ONE average home in Kingwood as a result of Harvey.

Damage to Lake Houston Area During Harvey Related to Excessive Sedimentation

  • $60 million in repairs to Kingwood High School
  • $60 million in repairs to Lone Star College/Kingwood
  • $1.4 billion for 7000+ homes flooded at estimated repair cost of $200,000 each
  • $1.5 billion in lost productivity ([100,000 people x 200 hours each] + [10,000 people times x 1000 hours each] = 30 million hours x Ave. $50 each)
  • $70 million for Phase 1 dredging of 2.1 miles out of 13 miles
  • $50 million for Phase 2 dredging allocated in County Flood Bond
  • “Billions” lost in home values and tax revenue according to City of Houston
  • 44% of Lake Houston area businesses flooded and closed for months, many closed permanently
  • Total: Estimated $5+ billion

So Much for Fiscal Conservatism

Even if you think the mines contributed only 10% of the sand in the river and are responsible for only 10% of the damage, they still came out ahead by a pretty lopsided margin, especially considering that we’re comparing statewide to local statistics and extended periods to one event. AND they are not being asked to contribute one penny to clean-up costs beyond their normal taxes. If you or I backed up into a light pole, we would probably get a bill for damaging City property. But not these lucky guys.

You would think the City, County, State, businesses and residents must be flush with cash to absorb these kinds of losses without raising a peep. So much for fiscal conservatism! Since when did Texas  replace “You Break It; You Buy It” with corporate welfare and subsidies?

But hey, we need cheap concrete to attract new residents who will make up for these losses. Right?

It’s Time to Change the Conversation

Call me unrealistic, but maybe it’s time to:

  • Prioritize taxpayers over newcomers.
  • Compare the tax revenue from mining to losses from other sources.
  • Balance public safety and private profit.
  • Put some teeth in TCEQ regulations.

Make all miners move out of the floodway and you could level the playing field for them while protecting them from liability. You could also avoid a lot of that damage, protect lives and property from unnecessary risk, avoid unnecessary losses, make the banking and insurance industries happy, reduce mitigation costs, increase savings and investment, hold down taxes, and attract newcomers. But wait. Win-win? That’s too radical a notion to succeed in politics these days.

As always, these are my opinions on matters of public policy. They are protected by the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Posted by Bob Rehak on August 31, 2018

367 Days since Hurricane Harvey

 

River Migration: Another Reason for Greater Sand-Mine Setbacks

River migration can imperil sand-mine dikes and that can imperil people downstream.

In the case presented below, the San Jacinto river migrated 258 feet toward a dike in only 23 years and now threatens it. The river has eaten away at a dike by migrating an average of 12.4 feet per year. The dike is now only 38 feet wide. This a textbook case for why we need greater separation between mines and the San Jacinto river. Another dike failure could exacerbate downstream sedimentation and flooding, as it has before.

River Migration Raises Questions about Setbacks and Abandonment

This example of river migration raises serious questions about the lack of setback requirements for Texas sand mines. As rivers migrate toward mines, they can breach dikes and increase the risk of future breaches. Sediment then sent downstream can block rivers and streams, and contribute to worse flooding.

In some cases, mining companies may still be around to repair breaches. But what happens when the mine is played out and no one is there to repair the dike? Hundreds of acres of silt could suddenly be exposed to river currents and washed downstream. As more and more mines on the West Fork approach the end of their lives, this is becoming a huge concern.

Before Sand Mines

This series of satellite images from Google Earth starts in 1995, before there were any sand mines on either side of the river at this location. I created the red line in a separate layer above the satellite images. As we move forward in time, the location of the line will NOT change; but the location of the river WILL.

1/18/1995 before sand mining in this area of the West Fork

By 12/31/2001, the river had shifted slightly. We now have a sand mine on the east side of the river. Note the width of the dike and the road on top of it.

By 1/25/2004, the river had eaten away at the dike and threatened the road. 

1/14/2006: The river has almost completely shifted from its original bed and wiped out a large part of the road

1/8/2008: The dike has become dangerously thin, and the road has completely disappeared.

3/14/2014: The mining company has shored up the road by adding fill to both sides of the dike, increasing sedimentation in the river.

On 5/31/2015, the Memorial Day Flood inundated the mine and wiped out the road again. Note the large body of water at the far left. This was a new pit started on the west side of the river that year. Notice how the dike on the left has been breached and silt from the mine is flowing directly into the river.

7/31/2015: The dike on the left remains open and erosion from the Memorial Day flood has eaten the road on the right dike. Twenty years after the start of this sequence, the river has now completely migrated from its original path.

Then along came the Tax Day Flood of 2016.

By 1/23/17, we see sediment building up at the south end of the both pits from the storm during the previous year. This shows that the current was strong enough to move sand within the pits, something the miners say is impossible.

By 8/30/17, the entire area was inundated. Peak flow during Harvey actually happened the day before this photo was taken.  It was four times greater than what you see above.

On 10/28/17, two months after Harvey, the dike on the right has almost disappeared. It is now a mere 38 feet wide. The red line, which represents the original riverbed, no longer overlaps the current river bed. The pond next to the G in Google has almost completely filled in, more evidence of sediment migration within the pit.

Reckless Endangerment?

This series of river migration images shows the relentless forces of erosion. Mining in the floodway so close to the river increases sedimentation, and as a consequence, the risk of flooding.

We’re already spending tens of millions of public tax dollars to dredge the San Jacinto and restore its carrying capacity. Sediment clogged it, in large part, because sand mine dikes have failed repeatedly to protect the mines from floods.

At what point does the honorable pursuit of profit become reckless endangerment? At what point does hope that the dikes will hold become willful blindness? Since when does one man’s unfettered right to mine sand give him the right to damage others and imperil public safety? Why do legislators allow business practices that endanger neighboring communities? When will regulators see the partial truths spread by TACA for what they are – an deceptive attempt to escape liability for egregious business practices? And above all, what happens when miners walk away from the property but floods continue as they always have.

Property Rights Vs. Public Safety

Miners claim they have the right to do what they want on their property. But not at the expense of public safety. Should the owners of commercial buildings be allowed to operate without fire alarms, sprinkler systems and safety exits just because it’s their property?

Miners have choices. They don’t need to compromise safety. The meander belt of the San Jacinto stretches for miles. There’s plenty of sand out of the floodway to mine.

At the current rate, without human intervention, river migration should capture the mine on the right side of these photos in about three years. It won’t be the first time something like this has happened.

To prevent such disasters in the making and protect public water sources, other states and countries have established setback regulations from rivers. Texas should do the same.

Posted on August 29, 2018 by Bob Rehak

365 Days since Hurricane Harvey flooded the Lake Houston Area

As always this is my opinion on a matter of public policy and is protected by the First Amendment of the United States Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP statutes of the Great State of Texas.

Harris County Flood Bond Approved by 6:1. What’s Next?

On August 25th, voters overwhelmingly approved the Harris County flood bond. The bond didn’t just pass, it passed overwhelmingly. 85.64 percent of the votes were FOR and only 14.36% were against. That made the margin of victory almost 6:1. Near midnight, the county clerk posted these results for the Bond

Breakdown of Vote

Not many people voted. Only 152,305 of 2,285,881 registered voters cast ballots. That’s 6.66%.

Approximately 94,000 people voted by mail or during early voting. Another 57,000 people voted on Election Day, August 25th, the semi-official anniversary of Hurricane Harvey.*

The total number of voters equaled the number of homes in Harris county that were destroyed – about 150,000 – but only half the number of cars that were destroyed – about 300,000. Perhaps everyone just assumed passage and stayed home.

Local Tallies Not Yet Available

Officials have not yet posted results by precinct. Therefore it’s not immediately clear how the Lake Houston Area voted compared to the rest of the county.

Anecdotal evidence, however, suggests the Lake Houston area had higher percentages of voters and positive voters than the rest of the county. One precinct in Kingwood had ten times more voters than an Aldine precinct and only 3% who voted against the bond. We’ll have to wait for the official results to tell more.

Everything Approved for Lake Houston

The turnout may have been disappointing, but the results were not. This will mean critical funding for projects that the Lake Houston Area needs for flood mitigation: more detention, dredging and gates. The bond also includes money to improve long neglected ditches and money to buy out homes that flood repeatedly.

Implementing Priorities

In the year since Harvey, we defined the problems, developed consensus around solutions, and secured funding.

Now starts the hard work. We actually have to implement the plans.

On Friday, August 24, the first of two dredges entered the river for the completion of assembly, The dredge is 27 feet wide, 90 feet long and weighs 270 tons. 

Additional Dredging Approved

I’m hoping that additional dredging will be one of the first items on the agenda for the Lake Houston Area. Currently, the Army Corps is about to start dredging 2.1 miles worth of “hot spots” in the river. Twenty-five percent of the cost of that project or about $17.9 million is for mobilization and demobilization. If we can launch a follow-on project to address the mouth bar before that project is completed next April, we may be able to redeploy all the equipment and dredge pipe without incurring all of those mobilization charges again.

Additional Gates Approved

The additional flood gates for Lake Houston will most likely be the next highest priority. Reportedly, the project received a very high score from the Texas Division of Emergency Management and FEMA. Engineering is already underway. However, this is a massive capital project that could easily take several years.

Additional Detention Approved

Adding more upstream detention will require a watershed survey (also in the flood bond budget) to determine the best place or places. Reportedly a vendor has already been selected and is standing by to start work the minute funding is assured.

To see the complete project list, click here and scroll down to the San Jacinto Watershed.

I contacted Matt Zeve tonight to congratulate him on the outcome of the vote. I think he was already hard at work on the projects. Within seconds, I received this response. “We are ready to deliver for everyone in Harris County.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/26/17

362 Days since Hurricane Harvey

*PS: You may note that my anniversary date is a little out of sync with what others are calling the anniversary of Harvey, My calendar started ticking when water started creeping in my neighbors homes, not when the storm first approached Corpus Christi.