Today marks 270 days since Harvey devastated one of the most beautiful communities in America. This weekend is the nine-month anniversary, the official start of yet another hurricane season, and Memorial Day. So it seems only fitting to look back.
The street in front of Jennifer Trimble’s home as she and her son were being rescued by boat.
Paul Margaritis, a friend and neighbor sent me the video below as a reminder.
It shows a one-block drive down Woods Estates in Kings Forest (one block west of Kingwood High School and north of Kingwood Drive). However, it could be any street in the Lake Houston Area shortly after Harvey. I remember not even being able to get into many neighborhoods because of all the debris cascading into streets. Foster’s Mill, Kingwood Lakes, and parts of Kings Point come to mind. Debris and vehicles completely filled the streets and blocked traffic.
Nine months later, the heartbreak has gone indoors, but it’s still there. You can see it in campers parked in driveways – where people are living as they complete repairs. You can see it in “Now Open” signs that have just appeared on retail establishments. You can see it in building permits, dumpsters, contractor pickups, and port-o-lets still occupying people’s yards.
Home, Home on the Driveway! The Slaughter family has been living in a trailer for 9 months as they try to restore their home.
And all too frequently, you can see scenes, such as this – a grim reminder of the recovery that just never seems to end.
Repair work continues at the home of a Kingwood business owner who has been living out of a hotel for nine months now.
Most people that I talk to who were flooded still only live in parts of their homes – if they’re in their homes at all. If you ask when they expect their homes to be fully restored, they may smile and say, “By the end of summer.” But every time a contractor fails to show up for a week, they pray it won’t be the summer of 2020.
This is why we can never forget the destruction caused by Harvey and why we must press the fight for flood mitigation measures.
The cost of mitigation will be a tiny fraction of the cost of damages from flooding.
Had we followed the recommendations of engineers after 1994 and Allison, perhaps fewer people would have had their lives turned upside down by Harvey.
It’s both ironic and fitting that the 9-month anniversary of Harvey should happen on Memorial Day weekend.
Posted on May 26 by Bob Rehak
270 Days since Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2018-05-26 12:18:402018-05-26 12:19:54The Nine-Month Anniversary of Harvey
The president of the Lake Conroe Association has said the group will fight a reduction of their lake to 199 mean feet above sea level (msl) during September. Remember, SJRA normally maintains Lake Conroe at 201 msl.
Is Reducing the Lake Level an Extra Foot Worth the Fight?
Readers have asked, rightly so, “Is this worth the fight? How much would we really gain, especially considering that evaporation already reduces the lake to 199.4 msl on average during September?”
Depending on your perspective (and how far from the lake you live), you might say:
“That extra foot is not worth the fight, because nature will already likely give us most of it.”
Or…
“If another massive release from the dam is necessary, that extra foot, in fact, every inch, will save more homes and/or give us more time to evacuate. We need every inch and every second we can get in an emergency, especially considering that dredging has not yet started.”
Do you have your hurricane kit prepared? Do you have flood insurance yet?
The Value of an Extra Foot of Buffer
The extra foot would undoubtedly save some homes on the margin of the flood, because flood gates would not have to open as wide or as long or even at all. However, it’s impossible to precisely calculate how many homes would be saved. That’s because of all the sediment clogging the river and other unknowable factors such as rainfall distribution and duration, and ground saturation. However, it is possible to calculate how much time we could gain to evacuate safely.
How Much Time We Would Gain Before Flood Gates Had To Open?
Let’s compute it:
Lake Conroe covers 21,000 acres.
A one-foot reduction in its level equals 21,000 acre feet.
But flow and discharge rates are measured in cubic feet per second (CFS).
So let’s figure out what that would be, given a rainfall as intense as Harvey’s.
Converting acre feet to cubic feet…
There are 43,560 cubic feet in one acre foot.
21,000 x 43,560 = a total of 914,760,000 cubic feet being debated
The maximum inflow rate to the lake during Harvey was 130,000 cfs.
7037 seconds = 117 minutes = approximately 2 hours
A one foot reduction would provide an extra two-hour buffer against a rainfall as intense as Harvey’s.
How much buffer is there normally?
Gates must open when water level increases 18 inches above 201 feet.
Without lowering level of lake, we have a 3-hour buffer before gates must open.
Lowering the lake level one foot means there’s a 5-hour buffer before gates must open.
Lowering the lake level two feet provides a 7-hour buffer before the gates must open.
Jace Houston, general manager of the SJRA, confirmed these calculations. He also stated that they were generally consistent with the rate of rise that SJRA saw in Lake Conroe during Harvey.
Finally, Houston pointed out that few storms are as intense as Harvey, and that with smaller rainfalls, you would gain proportionally more time. For instance, half the inflow rate would double the buffer time.
Those smaller storms have a much higher probability of occurring. However, a 20-inch rain falling over a two day period would be classified as yet another 500-year storm.
In fact, as I write these words, a tropical system is brewing in the Gulf. The amount of expected rainfall associated with it is 15-20 inches at this moment. If it actually rains 20 inches, that would be exactly half the amount Harvey dumped on IAH.
According to Jeff Lindner of Harris County Flood Control, this storm is expect to slow near the cost and dump up to 20 inches of rain between NE Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
Keep in mind: that storm is NOT currently predicted to affect the Houston area. Forecasters believe it will make landfall between SE Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. I’m using this only as a hypothetical example.
So, in our hypothetical example, let’s assume the inflow rate to Lake Conroe is exactly half of Harvey’s. That would give us twice as much time – 14 hours as opposed to seven to prepare. What would you need to do during that time if you were in an area that could flood?
Move your belongings to a higher floor if you have one?
Gather up your valuables, albums, computers, documents, medications, insurance policies, guns, etc.?
Refill prescriptions if you’re low?
Pack enough food and clothes for a week?
Gas up your vehicle with thousands of other people?
Pack up your vehicle?
Collect your children, elderly relatives, pets and all their medications and valuables?
Move additional vehicles to higher ground?
Find a friend or hotel who lives on higher ground who is willing to take in your family?
Investigate escape routes when the power may be off and trees may be blocking roads?
Move all that toxic stuff under your sinks and in your garage up into your attic?
Shut off your electricity?
Warn friends, neighbors, and relatives?
Let them know your evacuation plans?
Find an ATM with money left in it?
Beat the traffic out of town?
Sounds like a pretty full day to me! Granted, you might have a little more time because it takes water a while to get from Conroe to Lake Houston. But you might also have a little less time, because sand blocking the river could cause water here to rise faster, regardless of Lake Conroe releases.
So is that extra foot worth fighting for? In my opinion, yes.
It would let Lake Conroe absorb more water, decreasing the chances that they would have to open their flood gates. And if they had to open their flood gates, it would delay the opening, giving you more time to prepare to evacuate and get to higher ground.
Remember, if the rainfall rate was heavier, you would have even less time.
I didn’t have to evacuate during Harvey. The flood stopped one house away from me. So I would like to hear from those who WERE forced to evacuate? Do you think 7-14 hours would have helped? How would your life have changed if you had had that much time to prepare?
Posted May 25, 2018 by Bob Rehak
269 Days Since Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2018-05-25 13:27:302020-01-17 10:07:29Lowering Lake Conroe: How much is enough?
At its May Board meeting, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) chose not to reconsider its April decision to lower the level of Lake Conroe temporarily at the peak of hurricane season. The board also chose not to put reconsideration of the resolution on its agenda for next month. This now puts the decision about whether to lower Lake Conroe temporarily into the hands of the City of Houston and the Texas Council on Environmental Quality (TCEQ).
However, the president of the Lake Conroe Association (LCA), Mike Bleier, urged the board to reconsider its decision and was given unlimited time to present his case. Bleier spoke for more than half an hour. Bleier’s main concerns were the potential impacts on recreation, home values and businesses around Lake Conroe. Several other members of the association spoke in support of reconsideration.
Kingwood Residents Speak in Favor of Lowering
More than a dozen Kingwood residents also attended the meeting. Four spoke in favor of letting the motion stand.
Guy Sconzo, former superintendent of the Humble Independent School District, thanked the board for its decision to lower the lake. Then he talked about the impact of flooding on Lake Houston area infrastructure. His talk addressed massive losses by the school district, Kingwood College, and more.
TxDoT hopes to repair damage to the I-69 bridge by September, more than a year after Harvey. In the meantime, residents endure massive traffic jams.
Robert Westover talked about a flooded retirement community where several elderly residents died due to injuries incurred during high-water rescues and related stress.
Amy Slaughter complemented the board for its decision to lower the lake and explained how it would help insure that people had time to rebuild while other flood mitigation measures were completed.
Dennis Albrecht, who owns homes on both Lake Houston and Lake Conroe also spoke. Albrecht compared the relative impacts of flooding and lower lake levels on home values. Albrecht pointed out that the value of his Lake Conroe home has increased steadily despite lower lake levels at times. He also pointed out the devastating impact of the flood on the value of his Lake Houston home. “There’s no comparison,” said Albrecht.
Many other Kingwood residents attended the meeting to support the SJRA Board’s decision.
When is a lowering not really a lowering?
Bleier said that his members would accept a one foot lowering, but not two. Several Kingwood residents pointed out that evaporation already typically reduces the level of the lake by more than a foot and a half during September. The LCA’s decision to accept a one-foot lowering was, therefore, actually no concession at all; they would likely give up nothing.
Assuming average loss due to evaporation, the actual lowering would amount to only 4.8 inches.
Dianne Lansden, co-chair of the Lake Houston Area Grass Roots flood prevention initiative, and I gave Bleier a tour of the devastation in Humble and Kingwood yesterday. After a two-hour tour, while professing to be sensitive to the needs of downstream residents, Bleier proceeded to tell us the concerns of upstream residents. Among them: his members might not be able to take their boats to lakefront restaurants. (Editorial comment: Spooky shades of Marie-Antoinette!)
Not All Lake Conroe Residents Support LCA
To be sure, not all Lake Conroe residents agree with Bleier. Hundreds of homes on Lake Conroe also flooded during Harvey and reportedly most of the owners also favor a temporary seasonal lowering of the lake level, according to SJRA Board Chairman Lloyd Tisdale.
Lake Lowering Could Still be Nixed
Despite the SJRA board’s decision this morning, Lake Conroe still may not be lowered. To take effect, both the City of Houston and the TCEQ must also agree to lower the lake. The City owns two thirds of the water in the lake. The TCEQ must decide whether any lowering will count as an emergency release or be deducted from the City’s draw rights. If not considered an emergency release, the City may not support the decision to lower the lake.
Uncertainty Surrounding Weather Outlook
Some forecasters are beginning to worry about a possible drought. As of May 22, Drought.gov pointed out that abnormal dryness is currently affecting approximately 13,612,000 people in Texas, which is about 54% of the state’s population.
If we got ten inches of rain from a storm, such as the one entering the Gulf this weekend, that could constitute a 50-year rain at a time when the river is clogged with sand. That could produce a higher-than-normal flood for that amount of rainfall, and re-flood parts of Kingwood and Humble before dredging could even begin.
Personal Recommendation
Personally, I favor lowering the level of the lake. The actual amount of manual lowering, assuming this is an average year, would be only 4.8 inches. Even in the depths of the 2011 drought, the loss of 4.8 inches would have not have been disastrous.
There’s little chance, despite the hyperbolic rhetoric from LCA that 4.8 inches will destroy the Lake Conroe area. And it could help protect the Lake Houston area from another disaster.
In fact, in eight of the last 18 years, Lake Conroe has lost more than two feet of water due to evaporation and the lake is still one of the state’s most desirable destinations for tourists.
LCA Vows to Escalate the Fight
LCA has vowed to press its fight with the City and TCEQ and claims to have enough political support lined up to kill the proposal to lower Lake Conroe temporarily.
So get involved. Urge the TCEQ, Mayor and City Council to TEMPORARILY lower Lake Conroe until other mitigation measures, such as dredging, take effect.
Posted on 5/25/18 by Bob Rehak
269 Days since Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2018-05-25 00:52:562020-01-17 10:08:28Results of May SJRA Board Meeting and Decision to Temporarily Lower the Level of Lake Conroe
The Nine-Month Anniversary of Harvey
Today marks 270 days since Harvey devastated one of the most beautiful communities in America. This weekend is the nine-month anniversary, the official start of yet another hurricane season, and Memorial Day. So it seems only fitting to look back.
The street in front of Jennifer Trimble’s home as she and her son were being rescued by boat.
Paul Margaritis, a friend and neighbor sent me the video below as a reminder.
WoodsEstatesDebris
It shows a one-block drive down Woods Estates in Kings Forest (one block west of Kingwood High School and north of Kingwood Drive). However, it could be any street in the Lake Houston Area shortly after Harvey. I remember not even being able to get into many neighborhoods because of all the debris cascading into streets. Foster’s Mill, Kingwood Lakes, and parts of Kings Point come to mind. Debris and vehicles completely filled the streets and blocked traffic.
Nine months later, the heartbreak has gone indoors, but it’s still there. You can see it in campers parked in driveways – where people are living as they complete repairs. You can see it in “Now Open” signs that have just appeared on retail establishments. You can see it in building permits, dumpsters, contractor pickups, and port-o-lets still occupying people’s yards.
Home, Home on the Driveway! The Slaughter family has been living in a trailer for 9 months as they try to restore their home.
And all too frequently, you can see scenes, such as this – a grim reminder of the recovery that just never seems to end.
Repair work continues at the home of a Kingwood business owner who has been living out of a hotel for nine months now.
Most people that I talk to who were flooded still only live in parts of their homes – if they’re in their homes at all. If you ask when they expect their homes to be fully restored, they may smile and say, “By the end of summer.” But every time a contractor fails to show up for a week, they pray it won’t be the summer of 2020.
This is why we can never forget the destruction caused by Harvey and why we must press the fight for flood mitigation measures.
Had we followed the recommendations of engineers after 1994 and Allison, perhaps fewer people would have had their lives turned upside down by Harvey.
It’s both ironic and fitting that the 9-month anniversary of Harvey should happen on Memorial Day weekend.
Posted on May 26 by Bob Rehak
270 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Lowering Lake Conroe: How much is enough?
The president of the Lake Conroe Association has said the group will fight a reduction of their lake to 199 mean feet above sea level (msl) during September. Remember, SJRA normally maintains Lake Conroe at 201 msl.
“The fight can be avoided, and relief can be felt in the Lake Houston area, by accepting a more reasonable approach of temporarily lowering Lake Conroe by not more than 1 foot for flood control,” said Mike Bleier, at the bottom of his post: http://www.lakeconroeassociation.com/the-lca-will-lead-the-fight-against-lower-lake-levels/
Is Reducing the Lake Level an Extra Foot Worth the Fight?
Readers have asked, rightly so, “Is this worth the fight? How much would we really gain, especially considering that evaporation already reduces the lake to 199.4 msl on average during September?”
Depending on your perspective (and how far from the lake you live), you might say:
“That extra foot is not worth the fight, because nature will already likely give us most of it.”
Or…
“If another massive release from the dam is necessary, that extra foot, in fact, every inch, will save more homes and/or give us more time to evacuate. We need every inch and every second we can get in an emergency, especially considering that dredging has not yet started.”
Do you have your hurricane kit prepared? Do you have flood insurance yet?
The Value of an Extra Foot of Buffer
The extra foot would undoubtedly save some homes on the margin of the flood, because flood gates would not have to open as wide or as long or even at all. However, it’s impossible to precisely calculate how many homes would be saved. That’s because of all the sediment clogging the river and other unknowable factors such as rainfall distribution and duration, and ground saturation. However, it is possible to calculate how much time we could gain to evacuate safely.
How Much Time We Would Gain Before Flood Gates Had To Open?
Let’s compute it:
Jace Houston, general manager of the SJRA, confirmed these calculations. He also stated that they were generally consistent with the rate of rise that SJRA saw in Lake Conroe during Harvey.
Finally, Houston pointed out that few storms are as intense as Harvey, and that with smaller rainfalls, you would gain proportionally more time. For instance, half the inflow rate would double the buffer time.
In fact, as I write these words, a tropical system is brewing in the Gulf. The amount of expected rainfall associated with it is 15-20 inches at this moment. If it actually rains 20 inches, that would be exactly half the amount Harvey dumped on IAH.
According to Jeff Lindner of Harris County Flood Control, this storm is expect to slow near the cost and dump up to 20 inches of rain between NE Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
So, in our hypothetical example, let’s assume the inflow rate to Lake Conroe is exactly half of Harvey’s. That would give us twice as much time – 14 hours as opposed to seven to prepare. What would you need to do during that time if you were in an area that could flood?
Sounds like a pretty full day to me! Granted, you might have a little more time because it takes water a while to get from Conroe to Lake Houston. But you might also have a little less time, because sand blocking the river could cause water here to rise faster, regardless of Lake Conroe releases.
So is that extra foot worth fighting for? In my opinion, yes.
Remember, if the rainfall rate was heavier, you would have even less time.
I didn’t have to evacuate during Harvey. The flood stopped one house away from me. So I would like to hear from those who WERE forced to evacuate? Do you think 7-14 hours would have helped? How would your life have changed if you had had that much time to prepare?
Posted May 25, 2018 by Bob Rehak
269 Days Since Hurricane Harvey
Results of May SJRA Board Meeting and Decision to Temporarily Lower the Level of Lake Conroe
At its May Board meeting, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) chose not to reconsider its April decision to lower the level of Lake Conroe temporarily at the peak of hurricane season. The board also chose not to put reconsideration of the resolution on its agenda for next month. This now puts the decision about whether to lower Lake Conroe temporarily into the hands of the City of Houston and the Texas Council on Environmental Quality (TCEQ).
Protest by Lake Conroe Association
The Lake Conroe Association protested last month’s board resolution to temporarily lower the level of Lake Conroe by up to two feet in September. The resolution was intended to help protect Lake Houston area residents from flooding until other mitigation measures, such as dredging, can be implemented. The Governor specifically directed the SJRA to make such protection part of its mission.
However, the president of the Lake Conroe Association (LCA), Mike Bleier, urged the board to reconsider its decision and was given unlimited time to present his case. Bleier spoke for more than half an hour. Bleier’s main concerns were the potential impacts on recreation, home values and businesses around Lake Conroe. Several other members of the association spoke in support of reconsideration.
Kingwood Residents Speak in Favor of Lowering
More than a dozen Kingwood residents also attended the meeting. Four spoke in favor of letting the motion stand.
Guy Sconzo, former superintendent of the Humble Independent School District, thanked the board for its decision to lower the lake. Then he talked about the impact of flooding on Lake Houston area infrastructure. His talk addressed massive losses by the school district, Kingwood College, and more.
TxDoT hopes to repair damage to the I-69 bridge by September, more than a year after Harvey. In the meantime, residents endure massive traffic jams.
Robert Westover talked about a flooded retirement community where several elderly residents died due to injuries incurred during high-water rescues and related stress.
Amy Slaughter complemented the board for its decision to lower the lake and explained how it would help insure that people had time to rebuild while other flood mitigation measures were completed.
Dennis Albrecht, who owns homes on both Lake Houston and Lake Conroe also spoke. Albrecht compared the relative impacts of flooding and lower lake levels on home values. Albrecht pointed out that the value of his Lake Conroe home has increased steadily despite lower lake levels at times. He also pointed out the devastating impact of the flood on the value of his Lake Houston home. “There’s no comparison,” said Albrecht.
Many other Kingwood residents attended the meeting to support the SJRA Board’s decision.
When is a lowering not really a lowering?
Bleier said that his members would accept a one foot lowering, but not two. Several Kingwood residents pointed out that evaporation already typically reduces the level of the lake by more than a foot and a half during September. The LCA’s decision to accept a one-foot lowering was, therefore, actually no concession at all; they would likely give up nothing.
Dianne Lansden, co-chair of the Lake Houston Area Grass Roots flood prevention initiative, and I gave Bleier a tour of the devastation in Humble and Kingwood yesterday. After a two-hour tour, while professing to be sensitive to the needs of downstream residents, Bleier proceeded to tell us the concerns of upstream residents. Among them: his members might not be able to take their boats to lakefront restaurants. (Editorial comment: Spooky shades of Marie-Antoinette!)
Not All Lake Conroe Residents Support LCA
To be sure, not all Lake Conroe residents agree with Bleier. Hundreds of homes on Lake Conroe also flooded during Harvey and reportedly most of the owners also favor a temporary seasonal lowering of the lake level, according to SJRA Board Chairman Lloyd Tisdale.
Lake Lowering Could Still be Nixed
Despite the SJRA board’s decision this morning, Lake Conroe still may not be lowered. To take effect, both the City of Houston and the TCEQ must also agree to lower the lake. The City owns two thirds of the water in the lake. The TCEQ must decide whether any lowering will count as an emergency release or be deducted from the City’s draw rights. If not considered an emergency release, the City may not support the decision to lower the lake.
Uncertainty Surrounding Weather Outlook
Some forecasters are beginning to worry about a possible drought. As of May 22, Drought.gov pointed out that abnormal dryness is currently affecting approximately 13,612,000 people in Texas, which is about 54% of the state’s population.
However, NOAA issued an outlook saying that 2018 will be a slightly above average hurricane season.
And, Thursday night, the National Hurricane Center predicted a 90% chance of tropical development in the Gulf this weekend. That system could dump up to ten inches of rain on neighboring Louisiana and other gulf states.
How a 10-Inch Rain Could Affect Kingwood
If we got ten inches of rain from a storm, such as the one entering the Gulf this weekend, that could constitute a 50-year rain at a time when the river is clogged with sand. That could produce a higher-than-normal flood for that amount of rainfall, and re-flood parts of Kingwood and Humble before dredging could even begin.
Personal Recommendation
Personally, I favor lowering the level of the lake. The actual amount of manual lowering, assuming this is an average year, would be only 4.8 inches. Even in the depths of the 2011 drought, the loss of 4.8 inches would have not have been disastrous.
There’s little chance, despite the hyperbolic rhetoric from LCA that 4.8 inches will destroy the Lake Conroe area. And it could help protect the Lake Houston area from another disaster.
In fact, in eight of the last 18 years, Lake Conroe has lost more than two feet of water due to evaporation and the lake is still one of the state’s most desirable destinations for tourists.
LCA Vows to Escalate the Fight
LCA has vowed to press its fight with the City and TCEQ and claims to have enough political support lined up to kill the proposal to lower Lake Conroe temporarily.
So get involved. Urge the TCEQ, Mayor and City Council to TEMPORARILY lower Lake Conroe until other mitigation measures, such as dredging, take effect.
Posted on 5/25/18 by Bob Rehak
269 Days since Hurricane Harvey