Below is a list of historic crests on the West Fork at the 59 bridge. If the current flood crests at 54 feet, it will be the tenth highest in the last 25 years. Scroll down the list for floods you remember. For instance, did you flood in the Memorial or Tax Day floods?
The Memorial Day flood of 2015 on the West Fork crested at about the same height as this flood is expected to crest – 54 feet. However, that was lower than a flood in 2016, also near Memorial Day that crested at about 62 feet.
This flood will be about three feet lower than the Tax Day flood in 2016. And about 2.5 feet higher than the Good Friday flood this year.
Apply some judgment to all these numbers. New blockages downstream, such as the mouth bar, could back water up compared to what it used to be. New development upstream could also. hasten the convergence of water and increase flood levels. And it’s not just how much water falls, it’s how fast it falls.
Recent Crests (1) 49.51 ft on 07/05/2018 (2) 51.66 ft on 03/29/2018 Good Friday (3) 49.46 ft on 02/26/2018 (4) 69.18 ft on 08/29/2017 Harvey (5) 61.95 ft on 05/29/2016 (6) 57.32 ft on 04/21/2016 Tax Day (7) 50.11 ft on 06/21/2015 (8) 53.65 ft on 05/29/2015 Memorial Day (9) 49.56 ft on 05/18/2015 (10) 50.54 ft on 05/14/2015 (11) 49.58 ft on 03/13/2015 (12) 49.92 ft on 05/28/2014 (13) 52.09 ft on 07/14/2012 (14) 50.10 ft on 10/30/2009 (15) 50.10 ft on 04/28/2009 (16) 49.70 ft on 11/13/2008 (17) 62.80 ft on 09/14/2008 (18) 50.20 ft on 01/17/2007 (19) 51.40 ft on 10/17/2006 (20) 51.10 ft on 10/17/2006 (21) 49.60 ft on 05/02/2004 (22) 50.60 ft on 02/14/2004 (23) 55.80 ft on 11/07/2002 (24) 53.90 ft on 10/29/2002 (25) 55.30 ft on 06/10/2001 TS Allison (26) 60.10 ft on 11/15/1998 (27) 55.10 ft on 10/20/1998 (28) 54.20 ft on 10/19/1998 (29) 46.90 ft on 02/22/1998 (30) 52.40 ft on 01/08/1998 (31) 67.30 ft on 10/18/1994 ’94 Flood (32) 49.82 ft on 03/04/1992 (33) 51.72 ft on 06/27/1989 (34) 55.60 ft on 05/18/1989 (35) 50.46 ft on 11/26/1987 (36) 50.10 ft on 06/13/1987 (37) 42.20 ft on 08/23/1986 (38) 53.20 ft on 11/26/1985 (39) 51.80 ft on 10/26/1984 (40) 46.00 ft on 02/13/1984 (41) 54.00 ft on 05/23/1983 (42) 50.60 ft on 05/14/1982 (43) 50.10 ft on 09/01/1980 (44) 55.70 ft on 04/19/1979
5th Wettest December 7th on Record
According to Matt Lanza at Space City Weather, Houston officially had 4.31″ of rain on Friday, making December 7, 2018 the 5th wettest December day on record in the city, going back to the late 1800s. It was also our wettest single day since August of 2017, which we all know was during Hurricane Harvey.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/8/2018
466 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Screen-Shot-2018-12-08-at-7.20.36-AM-copy.jpg?fit=1500%2C837&ssl=18371500adminadmin2018-12-08 07:31:592018-12-08 07:32:05Putting a 54-Foot Flood in Historical Perspective
The following is the forecast for the San Jacinto River basin including the West and East Forks and the mainstem below Lake Houston, as of about 8:30 p.m. Friday evening. Some forecasters believe rainfall, runoff and flooding could go higher. This post has already been updated once.
West Fork:
Major flooding forecast. Some uncertainty remains. Forecast could go a few feet higher. Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist warns Northshore, Belleau Woods, Rivercrest, and Forest Cove will likely flood into early next week. Even elevated structures will be cut-off for several days.
Lake Conroe is currently releasing 2121 cfs as of 7 p.m. Friday. This is a small fraction of the expected flows along the West Fork.
The West Fork reached it’s low point around 4 p.m. this afternoon after the City lowered the Lake to 40.75 feet. Flood gates remain open at the Lake Houston dam. Regardless, the West Fork is now expected to crest at around 54 feet on Monday afternoon and not return to its banks for several days.Near Real Time Inundation Map from HarrisCountyFWS.org. Check the site periodically for latest updates.
This will be the inundation with a stage of 52.0 ft at US 59
East Fork:
NWS forecasts minor to moderate flooding along the East Fork at FM 1485. At 62 ft FM 1485 west of the river bridge will be impacted.
Mainstem below Lake Houston:
A rise to near flood stage is currently expected. A few low lying roads near the river could be flooded.
Overnight Rain Forecast
Lindner says, “Widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches has occurred over much of the area this afternoon with isolated totals of 3-4 inches over southern Walker and extreme northern Montgomery Counties.”
“Surface low is deepening northwest of Harris County and suggests increasing potential for heavier showers and thunderstorms. They will train from WSW and SW to the ENE and NE. Rainfall will continue to pile up at the rate of .5 to 1.5 inches per hour this evening and much of what is now falling is directly running off,” says Lindner.
The National Weather Service and Lindner expect areas along and NW of US 59 will receive the most sustained rainfall this evening.
Impact of Lake Lowering
Luckily for the Humble Kingwood Area, the City of Houston reduced the level of Lake Houston more than the 18″ they originally projected. As of this afternoon, the Lake was down to 40.5. That should give us some cushion against flooding.
Said City Council Member Dave Martin, “The gates at Lake Houston continue to remain open and will be adjusted as needed to allow for even more water to be released should that be necessary. In response to the lowering of Lake Houston, the West Fork of the San Jacinto River near Highway 59 has also lowered by 2 feet providing additional capacity in the river.
Expected SJRA Release Rates
According to Martin, the SJRA currently estimates that releases from Lake Conroe might peak at 9,000 to 11,000 cfs sometime over the weekend based on current forecasts. These amounts are relatively small in comparison to the rain events that our area saw during July 4, 2018 and Memorial Day 2016.
If you live in a low-lying area, monitor rainfall and water-level trends by visiting these web sites throughout the weekend.
Posted on 12/7/2018 by Bob Rehak based on info from Harris County & COH
465 Days since Hurricane Harvey.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/image001-1.png?fit=600%2C465&ssl=1465600adminadmin2018-12-07 20:01:502020-01-17 10:16:24West Fork Forecast to Flood up to 54 Feet
After Harvey, the SJRA, Harris County, National Weather Service and USGS added and upgraded stream gages throughout the region. Think of these gages as a distant early warning system. Looking at upstream conditions tells you what will soon happen in your area.
Here’s a list of handy web sites that display river, bayou and stream levels around Lake Houston and the state. Explore them before an emergency. Bookmark those that offer the best information for your area.
Reference Guide
Texas Water Development Board A one-stop shop for flood preparedness anywhere in Texas. Brings together local information from all over the state. Check everything from stream gages to the status of evacuation routes.
Harris County Flood Warning System. Real-time rainfall, and river-channel monitoring and forecasting. The Warning System also contains near-real-time inundation mapping. For instructions on how to use it and a discussion of its limitations, see this post.
Gages listed on the Harris County Flood Warning System in northern Harris and Montgomery Counties. This screen capture was made at 11:18 AM on 12/7/18. You can see that heavy rain is already falling at the top of the area shown in this map.
If you lose track of this post, you can always find these sites under the LINKS tab of this web site.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/7/2018
465 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/HCFWS.jpg?fit=1572%2C1210&ssl=112101572adminadmin2018-12-07 11:31:432018-12-07 15:20:34Handy Web Sites to Monitor Flooding
Putting a 54-Foot Flood in Historical Perspective
Below is a list of historic crests on the West Fork at the 59 bridge. If the current flood crests at 54 feet, it will be the tenth highest in the last 25 years. Scroll down the list for floods you remember. For instance, did you flood in the Memorial or Tax Day floods?
The Memorial Day flood of 2015 on the West Fork crested at about the same height as this flood is expected to crest – 54 feet. However, that was lower than a flood in 2016, also near Memorial Day that crested at about 62 feet.
This flood will be about three feet lower than the Tax Day flood in 2016. And about 2.5 feet higher than the Good Friday flood this year.
However, we will be about 15 feet below Harvey.
Remember: Things Change
Apply some judgment to all these numbers. New blockages downstream, such as the mouth bar, could back water up compared to what it used to be. New development upstream could also. hasten the convergence of water and increase flood levels. And it’s not just how much water falls, it’s how fast it falls.
Recent Crests
(1) 49.51 ft on 07/05/2018
(2) 51.66 ft on 03/29/2018 Good Friday
(3) 49.46 ft on 02/26/2018
(4) 69.18 ft on 08/29/2017 Harvey
(5) 61.95 ft on 05/29/2016
(6) 57.32 ft on 04/21/2016 Tax Day
(7) 50.11 ft on 06/21/2015
(8) 53.65 ft on 05/29/2015 Memorial Day
(9) 49.56 ft on 05/18/2015
(10) 50.54 ft on 05/14/2015
(11) 49.58 ft on 03/13/2015
(12) 49.92 ft on 05/28/2014
(13) 52.09 ft on 07/14/2012
(14) 50.10 ft on 10/30/2009
(15) 50.10 ft on 04/28/2009
(16) 49.70 ft on 11/13/2008
(17) 62.80 ft on 09/14/2008
(18) 50.20 ft on 01/17/2007
(19) 51.40 ft on 10/17/2006
(20) 51.10 ft on 10/17/2006
(21) 49.60 ft on 05/02/2004
(22) 50.60 ft on 02/14/2004
(23) 55.80 ft on 11/07/2002
(24) 53.90 ft on 10/29/2002
(25) 55.30 ft on 06/10/2001 TS Allison
(26) 60.10 ft on 11/15/1998
(27) 55.10 ft on 10/20/1998
(28) 54.20 ft on 10/19/1998
(29) 46.90 ft on 02/22/1998
(30) 52.40 ft on 01/08/1998
(31) 67.30 ft on 10/18/1994 ’94 Flood
(32) 49.82 ft on 03/04/1992
(33) 51.72 ft on 06/27/1989
(34) 55.60 ft on 05/18/1989
(35) 50.46 ft on 11/26/1987
(36) 50.10 ft on 06/13/1987
(37) 42.20 ft on 08/23/1986
(38) 53.20 ft on 11/26/1985
(39) 51.80 ft on 10/26/1984
(40) 46.00 ft on 02/13/1984
(41) 54.00 ft on 05/23/1983
(42) 50.60 ft on 05/14/1982
(43) 50.10 ft on 09/01/1980
(44) 55.70 ft on 04/19/1979
5th Wettest December 7th on Record
According to Matt Lanza at Space City Weather, Houston officially had 4.31″ of rain on Friday, making December 7, 2018 the 5th wettest December day on record in the city, going back to the late 1800s. It was also our wettest single day since August of 2017, which we all know was during Hurricane Harvey.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/8/2018
466 Days since Hurricane Harvey
West Fork Forecast to Flood up to 54 Feet
The following is the forecast for the San Jacinto River basin including the West and East Forks and the mainstem below Lake Houston, as of about 8:30 p.m. Friday evening. Some forecasters believe rainfall, runoff and flooding could go higher. This post has already been updated once.
West Fork:
Major flooding forecast. Some uncertainty remains. Forecast could go a few feet higher. Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist warns Northshore, Belleau Woods, Rivercrest, and Forest Cove will likely flood into early next week. Even elevated structures will be cut-off for several days.
Lake Conroe is currently releasing 2121 cfs as of 7 p.m. Friday. This is a small fraction of the expected flows along the West Fork.
This will be the inundation with a stage of 52.0 ft at US 59
East Fork:
NWS forecasts minor to moderate flooding along the East Fork at FM 1485. At 62 ft FM 1485 west of the river bridge will be impacted.
Mainstem below Lake Houston:
A rise to near flood stage is currently expected. A few low lying roads near the river could be flooded.
Overnight Rain Forecast
Lindner says, “Widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches has occurred over much of the area this afternoon with isolated totals of 3-4 inches over southern Walker and extreme northern Montgomery Counties.”
“Surface low is deepening northwest of Harris County and suggests increasing potential for heavier showers and thunderstorms. They will train from WSW and SW to the ENE and NE. Rainfall will continue to pile up at the rate of .5 to 1.5 inches per hour this evening and much of what is now falling is directly running off,” says Lindner.
The National Weather Service and Lindner expect areas along and NW of US 59 will receive the most sustained rainfall this evening.
Impact of Lake Lowering
Luckily for the Humble Kingwood Area, the City of Houston reduced the level of Lake Houston more than the 18″ they originally projected. As of this afternoon, the Lake was down to 40.5. That should give us some cushion against flooding.
Said City Council Member Dave Martin, “The gates at Lake Houston continue to remain open and will be adjusted as needed to allow for even more water to be released should that be necessary. In response to the lowering of Lake Houston, the West Fork of the San Jacinto River near Highway 59 has also lowered by 2 feet providing additional capacity in the river.
Expected SJRA Release Rates
According to Martin, the SJRA currently estimates that releases from Lake Conroe might peak at 9,000 to 11,000 cfs sometime over the weekend based on current forecasts. These amounts are relatively small in comparison to the rain events that our area saw during July 4, 2018 and Memorial Day 2016.
If you live in a low-lying area, monitor rainfall and water-level trends by visiting these web sites throughout the weekend.
Posted on 12/7/2018 by Bob Rehak based on info from Harris County & COH
465 Days since Hurricane Harvey.
Handy Web Sites to Monitor Flooding
After Harvey, the SJRA, Harris County, National Weather Service and USGS added and upgraded stream gages throughout the region. Think of these gages as a distant early warning system. Looking at upstream conditions tells you what will soon happen in your area.
Here’s a list of handy web sites that display river, bayou and stream levels around Lake Houston and the state. Explore them before an emergency. Bookmark those that offer the best information for your area.
Reference Guide
Texas Water Development Board A one-stop shop for flood preparedness anywhere in Texas. Brings together local information from all over the state. Check everything from stream gages to the status of evacuation routes.
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction for Humble/Kingwood Area NOAA predictions for the West Fork at the 59 bridge. You can also navigate to predictions for the East Fork.
Harris County Flood Warning System. Real-time rainfall, and river-channel monitoring and forecasting. The Warning System also contains near-real-time inundation mapping. For instructions on how to use it and a discussion of its limitations, see this post.
National Weather Service Get current weather info and warnings for our area.
National Weather Service regional rainfall for the last 24 hours. Useful for looking at upstream and downstream rainfall when evaluating potential for flooding.
Water-On-The-Go App USGS stream-gage data surrounding you wherever you go in Texas. Location-aware app with historical information.
Weather.gov. Recommended by professionals.
Coastal Water Authority. For levels of Lake Houston at the dam and approaching weather.
SJRA. See the dashboard on their home page Lake Conroe levels and discharge rates. For other gages, dig further into their website.
If you lose track of this post, you can always find these sites under the LINKS tab of this web site.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/7/2018
465 Days since Hurricane Harvey