By Diane Cooper, Kingwood resident with 20+ years’ experience in weather and river forecasting for the National Weather Service
It only takes one storm to cause serious damage to a region, which can occur in any year, even a below normal season. So, whether the forecast is for an above, below or normal hurricane season, you should prepare. Remember! Hurricane season is only six weeks away.
Prepare to Be Hurricane Strong
Now is a good time to prepare or update your Disaster Readiness Kits. Remember: “Shelter from wind; Flee from water.” Therefore, you need to create two kits. First, prepare a disaster readiness kit for sheltering in place. Second, prepare a “grab kit” in case you need to evacuate.
For what to include in a readiness kit, see my blog post.
For your grab kit, consider these suggestions:
FIRST, you need an evacuation plan.
Know your evacuation zone and your evacuation routes.
Identify what you can quickly grab that will support you on the road for several days.
Determine a route to a destination far enough inland that you will be safe from wind and flooding.
If you evacuate, take copies of insurance policies and other important documents or have them stored online, so that you can access them remotely.
Share your evacuation plans with friends and family.
Consider that your drive time will likely be longer than normal because of heavy traffic.
Prepare to be gone for several days.
Check Insurance Policies
NOW is a good time to review your insurance policy to ensure you have adequate coverage for you home, business and personal property. Make sure that your insurance policy covers rebuild costs and not simply your “tax-assessed value.”
Consider flood insurance. Our community leaders are working hard on flood mitigation. However, it will take time to fund and implement all mitigation measures. Until then, flood insurance can minimize your personal risk as well as risk to your business. Sadly, Harvey reminded us that inland/freshwater flooding can cause significant damages.
A standard home or renter’s insurance policy does NOT cover flood-related damages. If you already have flood insurance, make sure it covers personal property as well as your structure. (Note: if you had to purchase flood insurance to obtain a loan, your policy may not include the separate contents coverage. You can add coverage by contacting your insurance agent.) If you rent, you can take out a flood insurance policy for your personal property.
If you own a business, also consider business interruption insurance. It’s fairly inexpensive and can be a lifesaver. It’s not part of most business policies but can easily be added – inquire with your insurance agent. Specify that it covers disruptions due to extended loss of power. During Hurricane Ike, Kingwood lost power for approximately two weeks. Losing income for that long can severely harm any business.
Strengthen your Home
You can also do some simple things around your home, such as trim dead or weakened tree limbs, replace loose shingles, clean out gutters, and ensure they are securely attached. You can add hurricane clips to reinforce your roof. Also add braces to your garage door railings and cross braces to your garage door. Flash.org has more tips on how to strengthen your home and be HurricaneStrong.
Don’t Wait to Prepare
While I pray we will not experience another tropical system this year, the reality is that each year we have a risk of at least one. Thus, we need to be prepared. Take appropriate actions depending on the risk of each storm. Start to prepare now.
Posted April 12, 2018, 226 Days Since Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2018-04-12 10:56:572018-04-12 12:36:13How to Prepare for a Hurricane
Below is the official press release from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers about the field work for the sedimentation survey they completed on April 9.
“HOUSTON (April 10, 2018)
“The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Galveston District began surveying levels of sediment deposits last weekend within the West Fork of the San Jacinto River in response to a State of Texas and FEMA request.”
“To determine the level of shoaling and silt accumulation within the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, a New Orleans District Corps survey crew and vessel began collecting GPS and sonar data near Humble and Atascocita from Apr. 6-9 along a five-mile area between Hwy 69/59 and West Lake Houston Parkway
“Corps Surveyors operated a 20 foot Xpress Boat with survey grade GPS and a sonar transducer to determine sediment deposition,” said Alicia Rea, an emergency management response official with the Galveston District.
“FEMA responded to a request from the State of Texas and under Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Act of 1988, FEMA directed the Corps to begin the initial assessment of the conditions. Army Corps Hydrologists will utilize the survey data and use hydrologic modeling to determine the best course of action.
“County and City officials conducted a site visit to the locations on April 10, 2018” said Rea.
“We believe this is the most prudent action to take to better define the scope of work,” said Rea. “The USACE and FEMA are working diligently to expedite the process.” (END OF PRESS RELEASE)
Results of Survey Available Soon
Sources tell me (Bob Rehak) that the results of the Army Corps survey may be available as early as next week. This is good news with hurricane season just six weeks away.
However, there is still a lot of work to do before dredging begins. Everyone must agree on specs for the job. Bidders must be identified. A location to store or dispose of the dredged material must be found. Bidders must have time to prepare their bids. An environmental survey must be conducted. They must allow time for a comment period. The bid must be awarded. Crews must be mobilized.
Some steps can happen in parallel but others must happen sequentially. Sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said it could take a month or two before dredging begins – more likely two than one.
We hope that while that work is underway, preliminary work can begin on subsequent legs of the river to further expedite completion of the entire job.
At Least Four Major Blockages on West Fork
Here are four photos from the West Fork that I took shortly after Harvey. They show some of the major blockages between 59 and the lake that we hope the Army Corps addresses. The first two were taken upstream of the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge. The second two were taken downstream. Approximately 70% of the Kingwood homes that flooded were downstream from the bridge.
The new sandbar deposited by Hurricane Harvey now forces water coming out of the drainage ditch in the background on the left to make a 90 degree left hand turn before it can reach the river. This slows the velocity of runoff and backs up water into subdivisions, like the Barrington in the background. While the sandbar looks gentle from the air it is up to 15 feet high near the ditch.
South of the Kingwood Country Club’s Island Course, Hurricane Harvey deposited several feet of sand that is filling in the back channels and expanding the islands of the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, thus reducing its carrying capacity.
Looking north toward Kingwood’s Kings Harbor subdivision, a popular entertainment district that was destroyed by Hurricane Harvey. The West Lake Houston Parkway bridge is on the left. In the foreground, sand now reaches the tree tops and is virtually as high as the bridge itself. Water used to flow under the bridge and through the area in the foreground during floods. Now it is forced north.
A giant sand dune has formed near where the east and west forks of the San Jacinto join, inhibiting the flow of the river. Engineers say that sediment is not being carried out into Lake Houston (background) as expected. Areas beyond these dunes experienced far less flood damage from Harvey than the areas behind them. That’s the FM1960 Bridge in the background.
By Diane Cooper, Kingwood resident with 20+ years’ experience in weather and river forecasting for the National Weather Service
Colorado State University (CSU) released its initial 2018 Hurricane Outlook on April 5. It indicates an Above Normal Hurricane Season.
They predict:
14 named storms
7 hurricanes
3 major hurricanes
The average number of tropical storms per year from 1981-2010:
12 named storms
6 hurricanes
3 major hurricanes
Outlooks: Between Historical Averages and Near-Term Forecasts
Note: CSU outlooks are not near-term forecasts. Neither are they historical averages; that’s climate. Outlooks describe the probability of how any one season will likely vary from the average. To do that, scientists track numerous oscillations in the earth’s atmosphere and oceans. Historically, the high and low points of these oscillations have correlated highly with the presence or absence of hurricane formation. (For details about the Colorado State University Outlook, see their technical paper.
Key Factors Considered in This Hurricane Outlook
CSU indicates that Pacific and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were key factors in formulating their early 2018 outlook.
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast the “ENSO phase.” (ENSO refers to El Niño/Southern Oscillation, which has three phases: El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña.)
Both groups predict that the current weak La Niña will transition to an ENSO-neutral phase during this spring or early summer. However, they do not anticipate a significant El Niño for this summer or fall. (Note: ENSO models tend to be more accurate from June to December than from February to May. So, a March outlook contains more uncertainty.) For more information about the ENSO forecasts, see the International Research Institute (IRI) ENSO Forecast.
Neutral Conditions in Pacific Favor Hurricane Development in Atlantic
El Niño conditions in the Pacific (above-average SSTs that are tracked over a 3-month period) typically increase wind shear in the Caribbean and Atlantic. That reduces the chances of hurricanes fully organizing and strengthening, however we can still experience tropical systems and hurricanes with El Niño conditions.
Neutral ENSO conditions, on the other hand, allow for normal wind shear patterns over the areas in the Atlantic Ocean where tropical development tends to occur. Decreased wind shear provides a more favorable environment for Atlantic hurricane development.
Atlantic Sea Temps Now Vary, Causing Uncertainty
Currently, the western tropical Atlantic Ocean is very warm, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are cool. Thus, forecasters have difficulty predicting how warm waters will become during the peak Atlantic hurricane season. Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 through November 30th, but the peak is mid-August through mid-October.
The main area where forecasters study Atlantic SSTs is called the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR). The MDR includes the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea between 9.5°N and 21.5°N latitude.
Sustained wind speeds determine the classification of a tropical system.
Tropical Depression – 38 mph or less
Tropical Storm – 39 mph to 73 mph.
Hurricane – 74 mph and higher.
Major Hurricane – 111 mph and higher. These are Category 3, 4 or 5 storms that have significant impacts, especially if the center of the storm comes ashore.
Serious damage can occur in any storm. However, a slightly above normal outlook increases the odds that a tropical system will reach the U.S. coast. That’s simply because we expect to have more storms. More storms increase chances that one will come ashore near us.
Be Prepared, Not Sorry
Despite the outlook for an above normal season, the U.S. and Texas may see no direct hit from a tropical system. Outlooks say nothing about where topical systems will make landfall.
However, multiple storms could strike the Texas coast, as they did in 2008, when the CSU team predicted a “well above average” hurricane season. Texas took four direct hits between July 23 and September 8. The eye of Hurricane Ike passed right over Kingwood, knocking out power for approximately two weeks. Ike was one of the most destructive hurricanes ever to hit Texas and one of the deadliest. It caused $19.3 billion in damages and killed 84 people.
Typical Hurricane Ike wind damage in Kingwood, TX, in 2008. Ike moved quickly and caused more wind than water damage in Kingwood. The opposite was true near the coast where a 22-foot storm surge wiped out thousands of homes on the Bolivar Peninsula.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st, so start preparing now. In my next post, I’ll talk about how to prepare for a hurricane.
In the meantime, also remember that it does not take a tropical system to produce significant rainfall in southeast Texas. The 2015 Memorial Day flood and the 2016 Tax Day Floods are recent examples of 500+ year floods not connected to a tropical system. We should always be prepared for potential flooding in this area.
Posted April 10, 2018, 224 Days after Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2018-04-10 08:06:282018-04-10 08:13:42Forecasters Predict a Slightly Above Average Hurricane Season for 2018
How to Prepare for a Hurricane
By Diane Cooper, Kingwood resident with 20+ years’ experience in weather and river forecasting for the National Weather Service
It only takes one storm to cause serious damage to a region, which can occur in any year, even a below normal season. So, whether the forecast is for an above, below or normal hurricane season, you should prepare. Remember! Hurricane season is only six weeks away.
Prepare to Be Hurricane Strong
Now is a good time to prepare or update your Disaster Readiness Kits. Remember: “Shelter from wind; Flee from water.” Therefore, you need to create two kits. First, prepare a disaster readiness kit for sheltering in place. Second, prepare a “grab kit” in case you need to evacuate.
For what to include in a readiness kit, see my blog post.
For your grab kit, consider these suggestions:
Check Insurance Policies
NOW is a good time to review your insurance policy to ensure you have adequate coverage for you home, business and personal property. Make sure that your insurance policy covers rebuild costs and not simply your “tax-assessed value.”
Consider flood insurance. Our community leaders are working hard on flood mitigation. However, it will take time to fund and implement all mitigation measures. Until then, flood insurance can minimize your personal risk as well as risk to your business. Sadly, Harvey reminded us that inland/freshwater flooding can cause significant damages.
A standard home or renter’s insurance policy does NOT cover flood-related damages. If you already have flood insurance, make sure it covers personal property as well as your structure. (Note: if you had to purchase flood insurance to obtain a loan, your policy may not include the separate contents coverage. You can add coverage by contacting your insurance agent.) If you rent, you can take out a flood insurance policy for your personal property.
If you own a business, also consider business interruption insurance. It’s fairly inexpensive and can be a lifesaver. It’s not part of most business policies but can easily be added – inquire with your insurance agent. Specify that it covers disruptions due to extended loss of power. During Hurricane Ike, Kingwood lost power for approximately two weeks. Losing income for that long can severely harm any business.
Strengthen your Home
You can also do some simple things around your home, such as trim dead or weakened tree limbs, replace loose shingles, clean out gutters, and ensure they are securely attached. You can add hurricane clips to reinforce your roof. Also add braces to your garage door railings and cross braces to your garage door. Flash.org has more tips on how to strengthen your home and be HurricaneStrong.
Don’t Wait to Prepare
While I pray we will not experience another tropical system this year, the reality is that each year we have a risk of at least one. Thus, we need to be prepared. Take appropriate actions depending on the risk of each storm. Start to prepare now.
Posted April 12, 2018, 226 Days Since Hurricane Harvey
Army Corps Finishes Sedimentation Survey Field Work on First Leg of West Fork
Below is the official press release from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers about the field work for the sedimentation survey they completed on April 9.
“HOUSTON (April 10, 2018)
“The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Galveston District began surveying levels of sediment deposits last weekend within the West Fork of the San Jacinto River in response to a State of Texas and FEMA request.”
“To determine the level of shoaling and silt accumulation within the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, a New Orleans District Corps survey crew and vessel began collecting GPS and sonar data near Humble and Atascocita from Apr. 6-9 along a five-mile area between Hwy 69/59 and West Lake Houston Parkway
“Corps Surveyors operated a 20 foot Xpress Boat with survey grade GPS and a sonar transducer to determine sediment deposition,” said Alicia Rea, an emergency management response official with the Galveston District.
“FEMA responded to a request from the State of Texas and under Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Act of 1988, FEMA directed the Corps to begin the initial assessment of the conditions. Army Corps Hydrologists will utilize the survey data and use hydrologic modeling to determine the best course of action.
“County and City officials conducted a site visit to the locations on April 10, 2018” said Rea.
“We believe this is the most prudent action to take to better define the scope of work,” said Rea. “The USACE and FEMA are working diligently to expedite the process.” (END OF PRESS RELEASE)
Results of Survey Available Soon
Sources tell me (Bob Rehak) that the results of the Army Corps survey may be available as early as next week. This is good news with hurricane season just six weeks away.
However, there is still a lot of work to do before dredging begins. Everyone must agree on specs for the job. Bidders must be identified. A location to store or dispose of the dredged material must be found. Bidders must have time to prepare their bids. An environmental survey must be conducted. They must allow time for a comment period. The bid must be awarded. Crews must be mobilized.
Some steps can happen in parallel but others must happen sequentially. Sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said it could take a month or two before dredging begins – more likely two than one.
We hope that while that work is underway, preliminary work can begin on subsequent legs of the river to further expedite completion of the entire job.
At Least Four Major Blockages on West Fork
Here are four photos from the West Fork that I took shortly after Harvey. They show some of the major blockages between 59 and the lake that we hope the Army Corps addresses. The first two were taken upstream of the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge. The second two were taken downstream. Approximately 70% of the Kingwood homes that flooded were downstream from the bridge.
The new sandbar deposited by Hurricane Harvey now forces water coming out of the drainage ditch in the background on the left to make a 90 degree left hand turn before it can reach the river. This slows the velocity of runoff and backs up water into subdivisions, like the Barrington in the background. While the sandbar looks gentle from the air it is up to 15 feet high near the ditch.
South of the Kingwood Country Club’s Island Course, Hurricane Harvey deposited several feet of sand that is filling in the back channels and expanding the islands of the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, thus reducing its carrying capacity.
Looking north toward Kingwood’s Kings Harbor subdivision, a popular entertainment district that was destroyed by Hurricane Harvey. The West Lake Houston Parkway bridge is on the left. In the foreground, sand now reaches the tree tops and is virtually as high as the bridge itself. Water used to flow under the bridge and through the area in the foreground during floods. Now it is forced north.
A giant sand dune has formed near where the east and west forks of the San Jacinto join, inhibiting the flow of the river. Engineers say that sediment is not being carried out into Lake Houston (background) as expected. Areas beyond these dunes experienced far less flood damage from Harvey than the areas behind them. That’s the FM1960 Bridge in the background.
Here is link to an Army Corps Facebook post about the project that shows 20+ additional pictures of the survey crew at work on the west fork.
By Bob Rehak
Posted April 11, 2018, 225 days since Hurricane Harvey.
Forecasters Predict a Slightly Above Average Hurricane Season for 2018
By Diane Cooper, Kingwood resident with 20+ years’ experience in weather and river forecasting for the National Weather Service
Colorado State University (CSU) released its initial 2018 Hurricane Outlook on April 5. It indicates an Above Normal Hurricane Season.
They predict:
The average number of tropical storms per year from 1981-2010:
Outlooks: Between Historical Averages and Near-Term Forecasts
Note: CSU outlooks are not near-term forecasts. Neither are they historical averages; that’s climate. Outlooks describe the probability of how any one season will likely vary from the average. To do that, scientists track numerous oscillations in the earth’s atmosphere and oceans. Historically, the high and low points of these oscillations have correlated highly with the presence or absence of hurricane formation. (For details about the Colorado State University Outlook, see their technical paper.
Key Factors Considered in This Hurricane Outlook
CSU indicates that Pacific and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were key factors in formulating their early 2018 outlook.
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast the “ENSO phase.” (ENSO refers to El Niño/Southern Oscillation, which has three phases: El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña.)
Both groups predict that the current weak La Niña will transition to an ENSO-neutral phase during this spring or early summer. However, they do not anticipate a significant El Niño for this summer or fall. (Note: ENSO models tend to be more accurate from June to December than from February to May. So, a March outlook contains more uncertainty.) For more information about the ENSO forecasts, see the International Research Institute (IRI) ENSO Forecast.
Neutral Conditions in Pacific Favor Hurricane Development in Atlantic
El Niño conditions in the Pacific (above-average SSTs that are tracked over a 3-month period) typically increase wind shear in the Caribbean and Atlantic. That reduces the chances of hurricanes fully organizing and strengthening, however we can still experience tropical systems and hurricanes with El Niño conditions.
Neutral ENSO conditions, on the other hand, allow for normal wind shear patterns over the areas in the Atlantic Ocean where tropical development tends to occur. Decreased wind shear provides a more favorable environment for Atlantic hurricane development.
Atlantic Sea Temps Now Vary, Causing Uncertainty
Currently, the western tropical Atlantic Ocean is very warm, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are cool. Thus, forecasters have difficulty predicting how warm waters will become during the peak Atlantic hurricane season. Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 through November 30th, but the peak is mid-August through mid-October.
The main area where forecasters study Atlantic SSTs is called the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR). The MDR includes the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea between 9.5°N and 21.5°N latitude.
For more information about factors influencing hurricane outlooks and ENSO states, see What Influences the Long-Range Weather Outlooks.
Difference Between Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
Sustained wind speeds determine the classification of a tropical system.
This video shows types of damage to expect as wind speeds increase.
Why Hurricane Outlooks Matter
Serious damage can occur in any storm. However, a slightly above normal outlook increases the odds that a tropical system will reach the U.S. coast. That’s simply because we expect to have more storms. More storms increase chances that one will come ashore near us.
Be Prepared, Not Sorry
Despite the outlook for an above normal season, the U.S. and Texas may see no direct hit from a tropical system. Outlooks say nothing about where topical systems will make landfall.
However, multiple storms could strike the Texas coast, as they did in 2008, when the CSU team predicted a “well above average” hurricane season. Texas took four direct hits between July 23 and September 8. The eye of Hurricane Ike passed right over Kingwood, knocking out power for approximately two weeks. Ike was one of the most destructive hurricanes ever to hit Texas and one of the deadliest. It caused $19.3 billion in damages and killed 84 people.
Typical Hurricane Ike wind damage in Kingwood, TX, in 2008. Ike moved quickly and caused more wind than water damage in Kingwood. The opposite was true near the coast where a 22-foot storm surge wiped out thousands of homes on the Bolivar Peninsula.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st, so start preparing now. In my next post, I’ll talk about how to prepare for a hurricane.
In the meantime, also remember that it does not take a tropical system to produce significant rainfall in southeast Texas. The 2015 Memorial Day flood and the 2016 Tax Day Floods are recent examples of 500+ year floods not connected to a tropical system. We should always be prepared for potential flooding in this area.
Posted April 10, 2018, 224 Days after Hurricane Harvey