Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist but put this notice thus morning. He said wet weather will persist until mid week.
Slow-Moving Cold Front Stalls Out
A slow-moving cold front currently extends from Longview to north of Austin and is creeping southward. Ahead of this boundary a warm and moist air mass covers all of SE TX this morning. Meanwhile, north of the boundary a colder and somewhat drier air mass is in place.
Radar is fairly calm this morning with a couple of lines of showers lifting north over the region in the warm air advection pattern in place.
Surface cold front will move to near a Madisonville-to-College-Station line later this morning and then likely stall in that region today. Focus for rainfall today will be mainly across the northern half of the region closest to the front. Rainfall amounts today could average 1-2 inches north of HWY 105 as another upper level disturbance approaches from the WSW and interacts with the slow moving front.
Front Pushes South Tonight
Front will get another push this evening and likely progress southward toward the coast tonight. With the afternoon and evening short wave disturbance moving off to the ENE expect a lull in any heavier rains by late evening across the northern portions of the area.
Mainly light showers will impact the southern portions of the area this evening and overnight as the surface front stalls near the coast.
Tuesday Front Lifts Back North
On Tuesday the surface front begins lifting back northward as a warm front with a continued chance of showers over the area.
A strong upper level storm system currently digging into NW Mexico will begin to move slowly eastward and toward TX late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will result in the formation of a surface low pressure system over the coastal bend of TX Tuesday night which then moves ENE/NE across SE TX Wednesday.
Showers and thunderstorms will be likely in this period with some heavy rainfall possible.
Clearing Late in Week
This surface low will be strong enough to finally push a stronger front through the region and clear the area out for at least a couple of days before clouds and rain chances return for the weekend.
Yo-Yo Temperatures
Temperatures will be all over the place with the surface front stalling and then creeping across the area. Ahead of the front temperatures will be in the 70’s and then fall into the 60’s and possibly 50’s behind the boundary.
Rainfall 1-4 Inches, Highest to North
Rainfall Amounts:
Fairly tight rainfall gradient will setup across SE TX over the next 72 hours with much of the rainfall occurring north of HWY 105 and much lower amounts near the coast.
Storm total rainfall amounts through Thursday morning will likely average 1-2 inches over much of the region north of I-10 and 3-4 inches in the Lake Livingston area.
South of I-10 amounts of .50-1.0 inch will be possible. While the drought monitor shows dry conditions over much of the area, the time of year combined with lack of any vegetation growth and the widespread nature of the expected rains suggest rises on area creeks and rivers will be likely.
Highest impacted watersheds look to be the mainstem and tributaries of the Trinity River and the San Jacinto basin.
Currently predicted amounts are spread out enough to preclude any forecast to reach flood stage, but we will need to watch rainfall trends today and again on Tuesday especially north of HWY 105.
Should rainfall totals begin to pile up in our NE counties (Polk, Trinity, Houston, San Jacinto) a flash flood watch could be required for those areas.
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Monday):
The Lake Houston area has only a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall today.
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Tuesday):
Tuesday, the risk for excessive rainfall in our area looks mostly marginal.
Day 1-3 Forecast Rainfall Amounts:
Rainfall in the 3 day period should total 1-4 inches. Higher totals to the north. Lower to the south.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/10/2020 with thanks to Jeff Lindner
895 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/image003.gif?fit=748%2C562&ssl=1562748adminadmin2020-02-10 07:41:592020-02-10 07:47:23Rain Forecast This Week
Here’s a construction update for Perry Homes’ Woodridge Village, the stalled development implicated in flooding Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest twice last year.
On January 25, 2020, I flew over Woodridge Village. Not much had changed since my December flyover. However, Perry Homes, had concreted about 280 feet of Taylor Gully on the east side of the development facing North Kingwood Forest. And they started to build a berm between Woodridge Village and Elm Grove. Finally, they have started prep work for building more streets. See images below.
Overview of Construction Activity
Homes in North Kingwood Forest (bottom right) flooded twice in 2019 when water from the Taylor Gulley channel behind them overflowed.In December and January, Perry Homes, the ultimate developer of clearcut area called Woodridge Village, lined a portion of that channel with concrete.Closer View: Perry Homes also erected a berm along the southern edge of the kite-shaped S2 detention pond. Note the lack of activity above the pond.
Slanting Berm Between Elm Grove and Woodridge
Since the January flyover, Perry Homes has continued to build up a berm south of the S2 detention pond. The height of the berm is about 3-4 feet immediately west of Taylor Gulley (grassy channel in lower right). It tapers down to nothing before you get to Fair Grove Drive, one long block to the west (out of frame to the left in picture above).
Note height of berm at end of Village Springs Drive, adjacent to Taylor Gulley.Erosion from berm is already starting to collapse silt fence in numerous areas.Photo taken 2/8/2020.Looking east from opposite end of pond. At Fair Grove Drive, the berm is below the level of Elm Grove homes behind the tree line on the right.Photo taken 2/8/2020.
Whether Perry intends to build up the western portion of the berm is unclear. If they intend to go west beyond the point above and continue the berm south of the S1 pond, they have not yet done so.
The Strange Case of the Elevated Swale
Perry Homes has now dug a ditch at the peak of the berm to act as a backslope interceptor swale. Such a swale is designed to reduce erosion on the slopes of a detention pond by channeling water through pipes instead (note concrete opening of one such pipe in distance).Photo taken 2/8/2020.
Originally, I thought the berm might be the missing maintenance road that Montgomery County regulations specify around detention ponds. However, yesterday, Perry Homes’ contractor etched a ditch in the middle of the berm. I guess this ditch will act as the backslope interceptor swale, another requirement of detention ponds in Montgomery County.
Such swales channel water into ponds through pipes installed at low points. Their purpose: to prevent runoff from surrounding areas from flowing over the edge of ditches and causing erosion.
Except in this case, water from the surrounding areas would have to flow uphill several feet to get to the swale. So the swale will only channel water that falls directly on it.
No New Detention Ponds
No new detention ponds have been created since last August.
Prep Work for New Streets
However, Perry Homes is starting to add new storm drains to areas where roads have not yet reached on the north side of the S2 detention pond.
Storm drains being added to the north side of the S2 detention pond. Photo taken 2/8/2020.Note rilling (erosion) along side of pond.
Perry Had Promised No New Streets Until All Detention Ponds In
Point #1 in Perry Homes’ letter to the City Attorney about remediation efforts promised that Perry would delay additional street construction until three detention ponds on the northern part of Woodridge Village were complete. But as you can see from the first photo above, no additional detention ponds have even been started on the northern portion of the site.
Possible Impact of Changes on Flooding
The concrete channel will reduce erosion, but will do nothing to reduce flooding. As you can see from the video below, taken by Jeff Miller after a minor rain, Perry Homes needs the three additional detention ponds they promised in 2017, two and a half years ago, to reduce flooding.
The berm may redirect flooding. The berm has the potential to change the location of flooding. As floodwaters build up in the S2 pond shown above, they will eventually rise above the overflow channel between the concrete portion of Taylor Gulley and the pond. When that happens, the water will go around the berm. It could happen on two sides. On the west at Fair Grove (above) and on the east at Taylor Gulley (below).
Video by Jeff Miller after light rain on Jan. 28th shows flow from north side of Woodridge Village into Taylor Gulley. There should be a massive detention pond beyond the black fence.Taylor Gully concrete channel is approximately one-third fullon about a third of an inch of rain before this point in the day.See graph below. Photo taken around 5pm.The closest official gage at West Lake Houston Parkway showed 0.32 inches of rain before Miller took the photo above.
On the east side of the concrete portion of Taylor Gulley, notice how the edge slants down toward North Kingwood Forest (out of frame on the right).
Note levels on either side of the concrete culvert shown in aerial photos above. S2 detention pond is out of frame to left and North Kingwood Forest to right.Photo taken 2/8/2020.
Once floodwater gets into North Kingwood Forest, experience has shown that it will flow through streets into Elm Grove, bypassing Taylor Gulley.
Storm sewers, once connected to the detention ponds, will simply shorten the time of accumulation after heavy rains and fill the ponds even faster. That usually results in higher peaks. Again, without additional detention, there is no flood-reduction benefit for downstream residents.
Posted by Bob Rehak with help from Jeff Miller on 2/9/2020
894 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 143 after Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/20200208-RJR_7558.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-02-09 14:30:152020-02-10 06:47:08Construction Update: Perry Homes Adding Storm Sewers, Berm to Woodridge Village
Students in grades 8 – 11 can apply to join the national Youth Preparedness Council between until March 8, 2020.
US59 during Harvey. Photo taken from Sorters-McClellan overpass. Courtesy of Melinda Ray.
Purpose of Youth Preparedness Council
FEMA created the Youth Preparedness Council (YPC) in 2012. Its purpose: to bring together young leaders interested in supporting disaster preparedness. They make a difference by completing national and local preparedness projects. The YPC supports FEMA’s commitment to involve America’s youth in preparedness-related activities. Additionally, it lets young people share their perspectives, feedback, and opinions with FEMA .
Includes Representatives from All Ten FEMA Regions
YPC members represent all ten FEMA regions. They have a wide range of backgrounds and interests. Members have been leaders in their communities’ preparedness. They work in teams on projects relating to financial preparedness, citizen responder programs, and youth preparedness education.
Eligibility and Application Requirements
YPC applications remain open through March 8, 2020!
Students in eighth through eleventh grade are eligible to apply.
FEMA emphasizes that being selected to serve is an honor, but also a significant responsibility. The YPC requires dedication and time-management skills.
YPC members serve TWO years. Each YPC year begins in July with the YPC Summit. If members have not completed the mandatory requirements during their first year, FEMA may excuse the member from participating in a second year.
Members serve on committees with assigned tasks. They primarily communicate via email but have bi-monthly conference calls and other calls as needed.
For a full list of Roles and Responsibilities, CLICK HERE.
YPC Summit Held in Washington, DC on July 21 and 22
A YPC Summit is held annually in Washington, DC. In 2020, it will take place on July 21 and 22. Attendance is mandatory for all YPC members. The YPC Summit provides an opportunity for YPC members to meet FEMA representatives and each other.
Sessions during the YPC Summit cover a range of topics. In some sessions, YPC members are given the opportunity to share their ideas and questions with FEMA and community partners. In other sessions, members prepare for the projects they will complete during their time on the YPC.
Travel Expenses Covered for Member and Guardian
Each YPC member must have a parent/guardian or parent- approved chaperone to accompany him or her to the YPC Summit. In accordance with federal travel regulations, FEMA will reimburse transportation, lodging, and meals for each YPC member and his or her parent/guardian/chaperone.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/9/2020 with thanks to Congressman Dan Crenshawand photo courtesy of Melinda Ray
894 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 143 after Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Melinda-Ray-Harvey.jpg?fit=900%2C1200&ssl=11200900adminadmin2020-02-09 11:30:442020-02-09 11:30:54FEMA Taking Applications for Youth Preparedness Council
Rain Forecast This Week
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist but put this notice thus morning. He said wet weather will persist until mid week.
Slow-Moving Cold Front Stalls Out
A slow-moving cold front currently extends from Longview to north of Austin and is creeping southward. Ahead of this boundary a warm and moist air mass covers all of SE TX this morning. Meanwhile, north of the boundary a colder and somewhat drier air mass is in place.
Radar is fairly calm this morning with a couple of lines of showers lifting north over the region in the warm air advection pattern in place.
Surface cold front will move to near a Madisonville-to-College-Station line later this morning and then likely stall in that region today. Focus for rainfall today will be mainly across the northern half of the region closest to the front. Rainfall amounts today could average 1-2 inches north of HWY 105 as another upper level disturbance approaches from the WSW and interacts with the slow moving front.
Front Pushes South Tonight
Front will get another push this evening and likely progress southward toward the coast tonight. With the afternoon and evening short wave disturbance moving off to the ENE expect a lull in any heavier rains by late evening across the northern portions of the area.
Mainly light showers will impact the southern portions of the area this evening and overnight as the surface front stalls near the coast.
Tuesday Front Lifts Back North
On Tuesday the surface front begins lifting back northward as a warm front with a continued chance of showers over the area.
A strong upper level storm system currently digging into NW Mexico will begin to move slowly eastward and toward TX late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will result in the formation of a surface low pressure system over the coastal bend of TX Tuesday night which then moves ENE/NE across SE TX Wednesday.
Clearing Late in Week
This surface low will be strong enough to finally push a stronger front through the region and clear the area out for at least a couple of days before clouds and rain chances return for the weekend.
Yo-Yo Temperatures
Temperatures will be all over the place with the surface front stalling and then creeping across the area. Ahead of the front temperatures will be in the 70’s and then fall into the 60’s and possibly 50’s behind the boundary.
Rainfall 1-4 Inches, Highest to North
Rainfall Amounts:
Fairly tight rainfall gradient will setup across SE TX over the next 72 hours with much of the rainfall occurring north of HWY 105 and much lower amounts near the coast.
South of I-10 amounts of .50-1.0 inch will be possible. While the drought monitor shows dry conditions over much of the area, the time of year combined with lack of any vegetation growth and the widespread nature of the expected rains suggest rises on area creeks and rivers will be likely.
Currently predicted amounts are spread out enough to preclude any forecast to reach flood stage, but we will need to watch rainfall trends today and again on Tuesday especially north of HWY 105.
Should rainfall totals begin to pile up in our NE counties (Polk, Trinity, Houston, San Jacinto) a flash flood watch could be required for those areas.
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Monday):
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Tuesday):
Day 1-3 Forecast Rainfall Amounts:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/10/2020 with thanks to Jeff Lindner
895 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Construction Update: Perry Homes Adding Storm Sewers, Berm to Woodridge Village
Here’s a construction update for Perry Homes’ Woodridge Village, the stalled development implicated in flooding Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest twice last year.
On January 25, 2020, I flew over Woodridge Village. Not much had changed since my December flyover. However, Perry Homes, had concreted about 280 feet of Taylor Gully on the east side of the development facing North Kingwood Forest. And they started to build a berm between Woodridge Village and Elm Grove. Finally, they have started prep work for building more streets. See images below.
Overview of Construction Activity
Slanting Berm Between Elm Grove and Woodridge
Since the January flyover, Perry Homes has continued to build up a berm south of the S2 detention pond. The height of the berm is about 3-4 feet immediately west of Taylor Gulley (grassy channel in lower right). It tapers down to nothing before you get to Fair Grove Drive, one long block to the west (out of frame to the left in picture above).
Whether Perry intends to build up the western portion of the berm is unclear. If they intend to go west beyond the point above and continue the berm south of the S1 pond, they have not yet done so.
The Strange Case of the Elevated Swale
Originally, I thought the berm might be the missing maintenance road that Montgomery County regulations specify around detention ponds. However, yesterday, Perry Homes’ contractor etched a ditch in the middle of the berm. I guess this ditch will act as the backslope interceptor swale, another requirement of detention ponds in Montgomery County.
Such swales channel water into ponds through pipes installed at low points. Their purpose: to prevent runoff from surrounding areas from flowing over the edge of ditches and causing erosion.
Except in this case, water from the surrounding areas would have to flow uphill several feet to get to the swale. So the swale will only channel water that falls directly on it.
No New Detention Ponds
No new detention ponds have been created since last August.
Prep Work for New Streets
However, Perry Homes is starting to add new storm drains to areas where roads have not yet reached on the north side of the S2 detention pond.
Perry Had Promised No New Streets Until All Detention Ponds In
Point #1 in Perry Homes’ letter to the City Attorney about remediation efforts promised that Perry would delay additional street construction until three detention ponds on the northern part of Woodridge Village were complete. But as you can see from the first photo above, no additional detention ponds have even been started on the northern portion of the site.
Possible Impact of Changes on Flooding
The concrete channel will reduce erosion, but will do nothing to reduce flooding. As you can see from the video below, taken by Jeff Miller after a minor rain, Perry Homes needs the three additional detention ponds they promised in 2017, two and a half years ago, to reduce flooding.
The berm may redirect flooding. The berm has the potential to change the location of flooding. As floodwaters build up in the S2 pond shown above, they will eventually rise above the overflow channel between the concrete portion of Taylor Gulley and the pond. When that happens, the water will go around the berm. It could happen on two sides. On the west at Fair Grove (above) and on the east at Taylor Gulley (below).
On the east side of the concrete portion of Taylor Gulley, notice how the edge slants down toward North Kingwood Forest (out of frame on the right).
Storm sewers, once connected to the detention ponds, will simply shorten the time of accumulation after heavy rains and fill the ponds even faster. That usually results in higher peaks. Again, without additional detention, there is no flood-reduction benefit for downstream residents.
Posted by Bob Rehak with help from Jeff Miller on 2/9/2020
894 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 143 after Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
FEMA Taking Applications for Youth Preparedness Council
Students in grades 8 – 11 can apply to join the national Youth Preparedness Council between until March 8, 2020.
Purpose of Youth Preparedness Council
FEMA created the Youth Preparedness Council (YPC) in 2012. Its purpose: to bring together young leaders interested in supporting disaster preparedness. They make a difference by completing national and local preparedness projects. The YPC supports FEMA’s commitment to involve America’s youth in preparedness-related activities. Additionally, it lets young people share their perspectives, feedback, and opinions with FEMA .
Includes Representatives from All Ten FEMA Regions
YPC members represent all ten FEMA regions. They have a wide range of backgrounds and interests. Members have been leaders in their communities’ preparedness. They work in teams on projects relating to financial preparedness, citizen responder programs, and youth preparedness education.
Eligibility and Application Requirements
YPC applications remain open through March 8, 2020!
To apply, go to FEMA’s application website or download a copy of the application form.
To be considered for the national YPC, complete all sections of the application. These include:
For more information about how to apply, see the application instructions and Frequently Asked Questions.
Roles and Responsibilities
FEMA emphasizes that being selected to serve is an honor, but also a significant responsibility. The YPC requires dedication and time-management skills.
YPC members serve TWO years. Each YPC year begins in July with the YPC Summit. If members have not completed the mandatory requirements during their first year, FEMA may excuse the member from participating in a second year.
Members serve on committees with assigned tasks. They primarily communicate via email but have bi-monthly conference calls and other calls as needed.
For a full list of Roles and Responsibilities, CLICK HERE.
YPC Summit Held in Washington, DC on July 21 and 22
A YPC Summit is held annually in Washington, DC. In 2020, it will take place on July 21 and 22. Attendance is mandatory for all YPC members. The YPC Summit provides an opportunity for YPC members to meet FEMA representatives and each other.
Sessions during the YPC Summit cover a range of topics. In some sessions, YPC members are given the opportunity to share their ideas and questions with FEMA and community partners. In other sessions, members prepare for the projects they will complete during their time on the YPC.
Travel Expenses Covered for Member and Guardian
Each YPC member must have a parent/guardian or parent- approved chaperone to accompany him or her to the YPC Summit. In accordance with federal travel regulations, FEMA will reimburse transportation, lodging, and meals for each YPC member and his or her parent/guardian/chaperone.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/9/2020 with thanks to Congressman Dan Crenshaw and photo courtesy of Melinda Ray
894 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 143 after Imelda