On March 16, 2020, the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) finally started accepting applications for flood infrastructure projects under Senate Bill 7 signed by the Governor on June 13, 2019. We’re now at 941 days since Hurricane Harvey.
What Took So Long
What took so long?
Harvey happened shortly after the 2017 legislature concluded.
The Governor would immediately release money from the Rainy Day Fund.
The next legislature met in January of 2019.
It took until the end of May, 2019 for SB7 to work it’s way through the Senate and House.
The Governor signed the bill in June.
The bill stipulated that the fund had to be approved to voters in November 2019. It was.
With construction on many projects taking a year or more, the earliest citizens may see benefits from many of these grants will be 4 years post Harvey.
941 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 190 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Melinda-Ray-Harvey.jpg?fit=900%2C1200&ssl=11200900adminadmin2020-03-27 13:48:582020-03-27 13:49:21Texas Water Development Board Now Accepting Applications for Flood Infrastructure Fund Projects
A friend, Dr. Matthew Berg, CEO and Principal Scientist of Simfero Consultants, observed that flooding and the corona virus are alike. The more I thought about that, the more intrigued I became. Controlling both requires similar strategies.
Controlling Convergence is Key
Of course, when looking at the corona virus, it spreads from “one-to-many.” And when looking at flooding, the relationship is reversed, “many-to-one.” But stay with me for a moment. Because similarities will become apparent at the point of convergence.
Dozens of creeks and streams flow into Lake Houston from approximately 2,600 square miles.
Creeks and streams from 2,600 square miles converge on Lake Houston during heavy rains. That can cause flooding. Likewise, thousands of corona virus victims could soon flood the area’s limited number of hospitals.
Harvard Study Shows Hospitals Rapidly Becoming Overwhelmed
Last week, ProPublic published an article, “Are Hospitals Near Me Ready for Coronavirus? Here Are Nine Different Scenarios.” The article is about a Harvard Global Health Institute study. It modeled different rates for the spread of the virus: 20%, 40% and 60% of the population infected over 6, 12 and 18 months. The authors then compared results against the number of available hospital beds in various areas.
Interestingly, they used the Houston region as their first test case. In only one of the nine scenarios, did we have enough hospital beds to handle the flood of corona victims. That scenario was for 20% infected (the smallest percentage) over 18 months (the longest period).
Darkest blue represents 6-month peak, middle blue a 12-month peak, and lightest an 18-month peak.
In the graph above, the areas shaded with crosshatching represent the normal baseline level of bed occupancy for non-corona patients in Houston hospitals. The colored areas represent the percentage of the area’s population projected to seek admission within a 6-, 12- or 18-month period.
2.8X Available Hospital Beds
The ProPublica article about the Harvard study goes into much more detail. It looks at all 50 states, the number of ICU beds, available ventilators, people etc.
In Houston, the researchers found, “The influx of patients would require 14,300 beds over 12 months, which is 2.8 times the available beds in that time period. The Harvard researchers’ scenarios assume that each coronavirus patient will require 12 days of hospital care on average, based on data from China.”
ProPublica Article on Harvard Study
One hospital administrator said, ““The reality is that you can’t create unlimited hospital beds and ventilators. We have what we have, so we really have to hope that it’s enough, and that we’re prepared enough.”
Flattening the Curve Prevents Avoidable Deaths
Said the authors, “By modeling the data over the three time periods, the scenarios illustrate how much the nation could “flatten the curve” with social measures to ensure hospitals have greater capacity to care for coronavirus patients.”
Epidemiologist Dr. Marc Lipsitch, head of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics said, “The way to permanently stop new cases from setting off long chains of transmission is to have each case infect considerably less than one case on average. The numbers will go down. There will still be little outbreaks, but not big ones.”
Basically, Dr. Lipsitch argues that controlling the flood of victims early at the source is the only way to avoid overwhelming health care resources.
This YouTube video from Vox about Avoidable Deaths shows how slowing things down and flattening the curve helps everyone.
It’s much the same in physical flooding. Too much water in too little time overwhelms the available capacity of streams, rivers and lakes. Property is destroyed. People die.
The beat the peak loophole in MoCo regulations says that if developers can prove they can get their runoff to the river before the peak of a flood, they don’t have to build detention ponds. That’s what happened in the 2200-acre Artavia development. Of course, this incentivizes developers to get their water to the river ASAP.
And that’s exactly the opposite of what you need to protect lives and property downstream.
It’s kind of like saying, “Let’s infect everybody as fast as we can.”
Slowing down the spread of the virus will give researchers time to develop a vaccine or for the population to develop herd immunity … before hospitals become overwhelmed.
Unfortunately, there is no vaccine or herd immunity to protect downstream residents from greed. And there never will be. That’s why we need to close the “beat the peak” loophole before it’s too late.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/25/2020
939 Days after Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Vox.png?fit=1870%2C1042&ssl=110421870adminadmin2020-03-25 17:22:522020-03-25 17:22:57Parallel Between Flooding and Corona Virus
General location of new sand mine, south of Conroe, west of I-45 and West Fork, and east of Carriage Hills subdivision.
40 Minute Session with One Spectator
Likely due to the corona virus scare, only one spectator showed up to the Commissioners Court meeting, Paul Crowson. Crowson reported that the motion carried. He also said the entire meeting lasted only 40 minutes.
Minutes and video of the meeting still have not been posted. Crowson says he queried Montgomery County Attorney BD Griffin for details about the suit and Giffin replied only with “No comment.”
I wonder if the decision by Commissioners to allow the County Attorney to sue will actually result in a lawsuit. With permission to sue now in hand, the District Attorney may use that as a tool to get the defendant(s) to remediate whatever damage he/they have done. Either way, that’s good news.
A New Day for MoCo Sand Miners?
Regardless, this signals somewhat of a sea change for Montgomery County. The County passes out tax breaks to sand miners like Halloween candy, even though they violate State Controller guidelines.
More news to follow as it becomes available.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/25/2020
939 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Sand-Mine-Area.jpg?fit=1200%2C784&ssl=17841200adminadmin2020-03-24 21:17:182020-03-24 21:22:04Montgomery County Commissioners Vote to Sue New Sand Mine Near Carriage Hills
Texas Water Development Board Now Accepting Applications for Flood Infrastructure Fund Projects
On March 16, 2020, the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) finally started accepting applications for flood infrastructure projects under Senate Bill 7 signed by the Governor on June 13, 2019. We’re now at 941 days since Hurricane Harvey.
What Took So Long
What took so long?
We Aren’t to Goal Line Yet
What happens next?
Construction of projects can then begin. If they were construction projects. Some grants will cover planning activities such as:
Different Types of Projects Eligible
The Flood Infrastructure Fund established by SB7 provides grants and 0% loans totaling $793 million. Eligible projects fall into four categories.
Here’s a 36-minute video that explains the incredibly complicated rules for distribution of the funds. Warning: the video is not geared toward the public, but toward City and County employees who will apply for grants. Nevertheless, it’s interesting to see what goes on behind the scenes. Here’s a printed version of the Flood Infrastructure Fund Intended Use Plan that also describes all the rules.
Need to Move Quickly
With construction on many projects taking a year or more, the earliest citizens may see benefits from many of these grants will be 4 years post Harvey.
I understand the need to be cautious when handing out close to a billion dollars. But I also feel the need to act quickly with yet another hurricane season boring down on us. We should not forget that just last September, the fourth wettest storm in US history, Imelda, wiped out large areas between Houston and Beaumont. Sixty-two percent of the homes flooded during Imelda were outside of the 100-year floodplain. So we have lots of room for improvement.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/27/2020
941 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 190 since Imelda
Parallel Between Flooding and Corona Virus
A friend, Dr. Matthew Berg, CEO and Principal Scientist of Simfero Consultants, observed that flooding and the corona virus are alike. The more I thought about that, the more intrigued I became. Controlling both requires similar strategies.
Controlling Convergence is Key
Of course, when looking at the corona virus, it spreads from “one-to-many.” And when looking at flooding, the relationship is reversed, “many-to-one.” But stay with me for a moment. Because similarities will become apparent at the point of convergence.
Creeks and streams from 2,600 square miles converge on Lake Houston during heavy rains. That can cause flooding. Likewise, thousands of corona virus victims could soon flood the area’s limited number of hospitals.
Harvard Study Shows Hospitals Rapidly Becoming Overwhelmed
Last week, ProPublic published an article, “Are Hospitals Near Me Ready for Coronavirus? Here Are Nine Different Scenarios.” The article is about a Harvard Global Health Institute study. It modeled different rates for the spread of the virus: 20%, 40% and 60% of the population infected over 6, 12 and 18 months. The authors then compared results against the number of available hospital beds in various areas.
In the graph above, the areas shaded with crosshatching represent the normal baseline level of bed occupancy for non-corona patients in Houston hospitals. The colored areas represent the percentage of the area’s population projected to seek admission within a 6-, 12- or 18-month period.
2.8X Available Hospital Beds
The ProPublica article about the Harvard study goes into much more detail. It looks at all 50 states, the number of ICU beds, available ventilators, people etc.
One hospital administrator said, ““The reality is that you can’t create unlimited hospital beds and ventilators. We have what we have, so we really have to hope that it’s enough, and that we’re prepared enough.”
Flattening the Curve Prevents Avoidable Deaths
Said the authors, “By modeling the data over the three time periods, the scenarios illustrate how much the nation could “flatten the curve” with social measures to ensure hospitals have greater capacity to care for coronavirus patients.”
Epidemiologist Dr. Marc Lipsitch, head of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics said, “The way to permanently stop new cases from setting off long chains of transmission is to have each case infect considerably less than one case on average. The numbers will go down. There will still be little outbreaks, but not big ones.”
This YouTube video from Vox about Avoidable Deaths shows how slowing things down and flattening the curve helps everyone.
Parallel With Physical Flooding
It’s much the same in physical flooding. Too much water in too little time overwhelms the available capacity of streams, rivers and lakes. Property is destroyed. People die.
That’s why flood experts argue for upstream detention. This post about closing the detention pond loophole in Montgomery County flood regulations contains two FEMA case studies from Texas about the value of detention ponds. Slowing water down prevented flooding.
The beat the peak loophole in MoCo regulations says that if developers can prove they can get their runoff to the river before the peak of a flood, they don’t have to build detention ponds. That’s what happened in the 2200-acre Artavia development. Of course, this incentivizes developers to get their water to the river ASAP.
And that’s exactly the opposite of what you need to protect lives and property downstream.
Slowing down the spread of the virus will give researchers time to develop a vaccine or for the population to develop herd immunity … before hospitals become overwhelmed.
Unfortunately, there is no vaccine or herd immunity to protect downstream residents from greed. And there never will be. That’s why we need to close the “beat the peak” loophole before it’s too late.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/25/2020
939 Days after Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Montgomery County Commissioners Vote to Sue New Sand Mine Near Carriage Hills
In a rare move, Montgomery County Commissioner’s Court voted today to let the County Attorney sue a new sand mine. The mine property is owned by MBM Sand Company, LLC and operated by Skilled International near a Conroe subdivision named Carriage Hills.
40 Minute Session with One Spectator
Likely due to the corona virus scare, only one spectator showed up to the Commissioners Court meeting, Paul Crowson. Crowson reported that the motion carried. He also said the entire meeting lasted only 40 minutes.
Minutes and video of the meeting still have not been posted. Crowson says he queried Montgomery County Attorney BD Griffin for details about the suit and Giffin replied only with “No comment.”
The Montgomery County District Clerk has not yet listed any documents relating to the suit. So we still don’t know exactly what the County’s complaints are, only that they related to the Section I of Chapter 16 of the Texas Water Code and the Montgomery County Flood Plain Regulations.
I wonder if the decision by Commissioners to allow the County Attorney to sue will actually result in a lawsuit. With permission to sue now in hand, the District Attorney may use that as a tool to get the defendant(s) to remediate whatever damage he/they have done. Either way, that’s good news.
A New Day for MoCo Sand Miners?
Regardless, this signals somewhat of a sea change for Montgomery County. The County passes out tax breaks to sand miners like Halloween candy, even though they violate State Controller guidelines.
More news to follow as it becomes available.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/25/2020
939 Days since Hurricane Harvey