I have known Bruce Sprague for 30 years. He has always been a contributor. He flew cargo planes in Vietnam back in the 1970s and was honorably discharged from the Air Force as a Major. Then he captained commercial planes for Continental Airlines. Most recently, he taught military pilots how to transition to commercial aircraft. Like most pilots who live to the age of 73, Bruce follows procedures religiously and always has backup plans to his backup plans. But lately, life has dealt him a series of blows that have left him flying on fumes with only one engine.
While in the US Air Force and USAF Reserves from 1970 thru 1984, Sprague flew C5s all over the world.Bruce Sprague flew for Continental Airlines from 1978 thru 2006. Here is his most famous passenger in 2001, right after the terrorist attacks.Bruce is the pilot standing next to George Bush.
In 2006, at age 60, FAA regulations forced him to retire from flying. Then in 2008, the financial crisis wiped out a large part of his retirement savings. Next, in 2017, he flooded from Hurricane Harvey. Then the Texas General Land Office (GLO) denied him a grant under the Homeowner Assistance Program (HoAP) because he had already taken out an SBA loan. And most recently, he lost his teaching gig when the airline industry went into a tailspin due to the corona virus; no new pilots needed!
So now, Bruce is trying to regain altitude by appealing the grant rejection, but the GLO is still stalling him.
This is the story of a man who has been 1) forced out, 2) wiped out, 3) flooded out, 4) ruled out and 5) “virused” out.
Despite all that, Bruce has maintained a positive attitude. I’m writing this because he symbolizes, according to a GLO estimate, a thousand other Texans caught in a similar bind.
Waking Up on August 29, 2017, to a Changed Life
Rehak: What happened to you and your home during Harvey?
Sprague: Like most people, we went to bed on the night of August 28th thinking we were safe. But on the morning of the 29th we woke up to find an army of insects marching in front of a what felt like a tidal wave headed toward our house. Soon, the water started creeping in. It eventually reached 25 inches in the house and 30 inches in the garage.
The Sprague Kitchen on the morning of August 29, 2017 during Harvey
Rehak: Did you have flood insurance?
Sprague: No. We are in the 500-year flood plain.
Rehak: What happened next?
Reconstruction, Loans and Grant: Start of Even Bigger Problem
Sprague: Luckily, our son in law is in a business that regularly uses lots of contractors. He got people repairing our home right away. And they only charged us cost. No markup. That was the good news. But because of financial losses in 2008, we still had a mortgage and less in our retirement fund than I planned. So we applied for an SBA loan. And they loaned us about $90,000. We also got about $30,000 of individual assistance from FEMA. But the repairs cost $130,000 and that didn’t include contents and replacement of two cars. At any rate, we were able to get back in our house by Christmas, which was close to a record.
Tearing out wallboard, insulation, cabinets and flooring.
Rehak: Some time later, HUD Homeowner Assistance grants became available and you applied for one. Did you see anything in the fine print to cause you concern?
Sprague: Yes, there was a clause called “Duplication of Benefits.” It said that if we had taken an SBA loan, we would not be eligible for the grant.
Rehak: Did you ask about that?
Sprague: Yes, the person at the City who processed our application for the General Land Office said that would not be a problem. “Not to worry about it,” she said.
Rehak: So you applied?
Sprague: Yes. We went thru a year long process to fill out forms. We made multiple visits to the HoAP offices, and many, many phone calls and emails.
Loan With Interest Classified Like Grant
Rehak: What happened?
Sprague: They denied us.
Rehak: Why?
Sprague: Duplication of benefits.
Rehak: How is a loan that you have to pay back with interest a “benefit”?
Sprague: Those are their rules. But that wasn’t our only problem. Even though we had receipts totaling $130,000 for repairs, and even though most other people in the neighborhood paid more than $200,000 to repair their homes, the City inspector estimated we only had about $105,000 worth of damage. That reduced the amount of any potential grant.
Not Following Katrina Model
Rehak: When people hear the words “duplication of benefits,” it conjures up images of double dipping and fraud.
Sprague: Right. Had we applied for GRANTS that totaled more than we paid, I would agree with that. But a loan is not a grant. You have to pay it back…with interest. So you’re not defrauding the government unless you default on the loan. Look at it this way.
We had way more in repair costs than the total of our loans and grant. And they’re not even considering a homeowner assistance grant.
The belongings of a lifetime on the curb for looters and garbage men to take. Sprague lives in a one-story house.
Appropriations Bill Stalled In Senate Due to Virus
Sprague: It stalled in the Senate because everyone is focusing on corona virus now. The GLO has not changed its position. They say that even though Congress and the President have clarified their position, “the rules came too late.”
Rehak: That leaves you in limbo. And you’re dealing with two disasters now: Harvey and the virus.
Sprague: I understand that people are just doing their jobs, that they have rules to deal with, and they’re trying to prevent fraud. But it sure is frustrating when the President tells someone in his chain of command, “This is how I and Congress want this to work,” and then people down the line don’t follow instructions.
Rehak: Are you holding out much hope for a grant at this point?
Sprague: No time soon. It’s been more than two and a half years since Harvey. When natural disasters destroy people’s lives and homes, they need help right away, not three or four years later.
Hoping Appeals Last Long Enough
Rehak: Have you appealed?
Sprague: Yes. We’re on our second appeal. Three appeals are possible. We’re hoping we can keep this going long enough for Crenshaw’s appropriations bill to get some traction in the Senate and for the GLO to revise its rules.
Rehak: Is there any hope in the Senate? Have you approached Cruz or Cornyn?
Sprague: I’ve gotten some nice form letters back from them saying they are “working for all Texans.”
Rehak: What do you hope for at this point?
Sprague: I just hope we survive corona so our heirs don’t inherit a mountain of debt with our house. Until now, I’ve never asked anything from my government. I hope just this once they come through.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/IMG_8048.jpeg?fit=1280%2C960&ssl=19601280adminadmin2020-04-04 19:54:202020-04-05 10:16:20Bruce Sprague’s Hurricane Harvey Story, Part VI
The SJRA announced earlier this week that the Harris County Flood Control District will partner with the River Authority on a “sediment trap” pilot study for the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto. The two have hired engineering firm Freese & Nichols to conceptually design the traps and identify the optimal locations for them.
Finding the Right Combination of Factors
Most sediment traps are big holes dug in a river or channel though some are off to the side. As water passes them, velocity decreases. Suspended sediment and sand being pushed along the river bed fall into them.
Source: EPA. The hole reduces water speed which accelerates deposition in a fixed location that’s easy to clean out.
The optimal length, for instance, depends on the speed of floodwaters and the settling rate of sediment particles. The trap needs to be long enough to give suspended sand time to fall out of suspension. Otherwise, sand just passes over the trap and continues downriver.
The hope: that the right type of traps placed in the right locations could help reduce flooding by reducing the amount of sediment migrating downriver and then blocking the mouths of each river branch.
Coming Out of HB1824 and River Basin Study
House Bill 1824, passed just last year, helps make sediment traps financially feasible. It allows the partners to remove material from the San Jacinto River and its tributaries to restore, maintain, or expand storm flow capacity without the need for state permitting or a royalty payment to the state.
The scope of work outlined for Freese & Nichols includes, but is not limited to:
Reviewing and comparing: current and historical LiDAR surveys and aerial photos to gauge sediment erosion, deposition and location
Evaluating digital elevation maps to identify constrictions
Identifying the ten areas with the largest volumes of sediment deposition, including the two largest at a sand mine.
Reviewing FEMA floodplain, National Wetland Inventory, Texas Historical Commission and Texas Parks and Wildlife information for any problems related to each potential site.
Core sampling of sand bars to determine silt content
Ranking preliminary locations using the following: sediment deposition volume, potential sediment storage volume, proximity to existing roads, proximity to existing APO facilities.
Selecting the four locations with the highest potential based on drainage area, sediment load, geology, road access, etc.
Narrowing that to three locations in conjunction with SJRA and HCFCD
Developing sediment trap conceptual solutions specific to each of the final three selected sites
Estimating rate of sediment accumulation and clean-out intervals
Estimating reduction of sediment accumulation due to trapping
Submitting a final report.
The project does NOT extend into Lake Houston. Freese & Nichols will examine both the East and West Forks plus three miles upstream from the East and West Forks along certain tributaries. Tributaries would include, for instance, Lake Creek and Caney Creek. The idea is to intercept sediment before it can make its way into the lake.
Project Timing
The project timetable indicates completion in early fall of 2020, about the same time as the entire San Jacinto River Basin Study. Thus, any recommendations coming out of this project would not be constructed for this hurricane season. SJRA currently hopes to have the trap(s) installed by the end of 2022.
Pros and Cons of Sediment Traps
Proponents say sediment traps can reduce expensive dredging, restore fish habitat, reduce flood risk and more. However…
The scientific literature on sediment traps reveals mixed reviews. Many efforts fail, primarily because of lack of maintenance budgets and regular clean-outs. The SJRA and HCFCD plan to address that issue upfront by involving the sand mining industry. Notice that of the four location-ranking criteria bolded above, three favor proximity to sand mines:
Sand mines have pits to store sediment.
They have roads that lead to the river that can carry heavy equipment.
Mines have cleaning, sorting and transportation facilities onsite to reduce transportation costs, and thus make material more attractive for resale.
Compensation for Sand Miners
A compensation agreement for sand miners who remove sediment from traps has not yet been worked out. However, Matt Barrett, SJRA’s project engineer, says, “The intended benefit to the APOs of participating in the public-private partnership would be that they could utilize or sell the material they remove from the trap(s). ”
River mining is outlawed in Europe, many other first-world nations, and even in some third world countries.
It tends to alter the gradient of rivers; cause upstream and downstream erosion; destroy private property along river banks; and undermine infrastructure such as bridges and pipelines.
Thus, the sediment traps raise a question of potential liability. If a pipeline or bridge is undermined or if property is eroded by the traps, who is responsible?
“Stability of the river is key to the long term safety and well-being of our community. We know that our public agencies have an important task. Before spending additional taxpayer dollars, don’t we want to make sure that projects won’t make problems worse AND won’t raise taxpayer costs?” said Jill Boullion, Executive Director of the Bayou Land Conservancy.
SJRA Response to Concerns
The SJRA has consistently denied that it would permit wholesale river mining. Most recently, Matt Barrett, the River Authority’s engineer for the sediment trap project said, “SJRA has no intention of engaging in or facilitating river mining in the San Jacinto River or any of its tributaries. The legislative language in HB1824 allows for the removal of material for the purpose of restoring, maintaining, or expanding the capacity to convey storm flows. Any projects undertaken by SJRA to remove or facilitate the removal of material from the San Jacinto River or its tributaries would be for this purpose.”
“River mining is not part of what we are doing. Only sediment in the trap will be removed,” he said.
Barrett is aware of potential hazards. “SJRA and its consultant are aware of the potential negative impacts that can be caused by trapping and removing sediment from a river or stream – changing the sediment balance – and prior to constructing any sediment trap or implementing removal of any material will perform analysis to ensure that any potential negative effects do not offset the positive.”
He sees the current design project as part of a pilot study that can scale up later. “One of the goals of this relatively small scale project is to serve as a “pilot” that gives us data on the real-world effectiveness of sand traps. If data indicates this is a viable flood risk mitigation solution, then additional funding and partnerships could be sought to expand the concept. We are excited to start this project and seek solutions to reduce flood risk.
For More Information
For more on how on sediment traps work, see this presentation found on the EPA site about a project in Michigan. It’s not directly analogous to south Texas because rainfall rates, soil types and gradients differ. But helps explain the theory of traps.
948 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 197 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/How-Traps-Woirk.jpg?fit=1346%2C1058&ssl=110581346adminadmin2020-04-02 19:42:462020-04-03 16:21:37HCFCD Partners with SJRA on Sediment Trap Project
Reasons: unusually warm seawater in the Atlantic and the likely LACK of an El Niño in the Pacific. El Niño in the Pacific usually sets up wind shear that tears apart storms in the Atlantic. Said another way, they help keep tropical storms from developing into full-force hurricanes. But without El Niño, the lack of shear allows more storms to develop and creates active hurricane seasons.
Source: NOAA, From April 2, 2020. Shows most of Atlantic has above-normal sea-surface temps, and that temps immediately offshore the upper Texas and Louisiana Coasts are now 4-5 degrees above normal.
CSU predicts 18 named storms will develop.
AccuWeather released its hurricane season predictions a week earlier. They predict 14-18 names storms. Of those, seven to nine will likely become hurricanes, and two to four are likely to hit the U.S. mainland.
NOAA should issue its forecast in late May.
Hurricane season extends from June 1 to November 30.
March Warmth Unrelated to Hurricane Season
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control’s meteorologist, says that the unusually warm March that south Texas just experienced (about 8 degrees above normal) will have little effect on tropical storm formation. “There is some correlation with a warm Gulf of Mexico and severe weather and flooding along the Gulf Coast during the spring months. But there is little to no correlation to tropical activity in the Gulf during summer months.”
3-4 Inches of Rain Possible in Next 5 Days
Speaking of Spring rains, Lindner also predicts a stormy weather pattern will set up over our area for the next 5-7 days. He says “some severe weather and heavy rainfall will be possible.”
“Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with isolated totals of 3-4 inches will be possible between this afternoon and Saturday,” says Lindner. He predicts the heaviest rainfall across area north of I-10. Storms could train, producing the higher rainfall amounts. But Lindner also adds, “It has been dry of late and the soil can take several inches of rainfall as long as it is not all at once.” So no one is talking about flooding at this point.
NOAA predicts a slight chance of severe storms Friday evening, mostly west of Houston.
Here’s where NOAA predicts the heaviest rains to fall during the next 5 days and what the total accumulations should be.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/2/2020
947 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/atl_anom.gif?fit=800%2C737&ssl=1737800adminadmin2020-04-02 12:59:582020-04-02 13:06:34“Above-Average” Hurricane Season Predicted This Year
Bruce Sprague’s Hurricane Harvey Story, Part VI
I have known Bruce Sprague for 30 years. He has always been a contributor. He flew cargo planes in Vietnam back in the 1970s and was honorably discharged from the Air Force as a Major. Then he captained commercial planes for Continental Airlines. Most recently, he taught military pilots how to transition to commercial aircraft. Like most pilots who live to the age of 73, Bruce follows procedures religiously and always has backup plans to his backup plans. But lately, life has dealt him a series of blows that have left him flying on fumes with only one engine.
In 2006, at age 60, FAA regulations forced him to retire from flying. Then in 2008, the financial crisis wiped out a large part of his retirement savings. Next, in 2017, he flooded from Hurricane Harvey. Then the Texas General Land Office (GLO) denied him a grant under the Homeowner Assistance Program (HoAP) because he had already taken out an SBA loan. And most recently, he lost his teaching gig when the airline industry went into a tailspin due to the corona virus; no new pilots needed!
So now, Bruce is trying to regain altitude by appealing the grant rejection, but the GLO is still stalling him.
Despite all that, Bruce has maintained a positive attitude. I’m writing this because he symbolizes, according to a GLO estimate, a thousand other Texans caught in a similar bind.
Waking Up on August 29, 2017, to a Changed Life
Rehak: What happened to you and your home during Harvey?
Sprague: Like most people, we went to bed on the night of August 28th thinking we were safe. But on the morning of the 29th we woke up to find an army of insects marching in front of a what felt like a tidal wave headed toward our house. Soon, the water started creeping in. It eventually reached 25 inches in the house and 30 inches in the garage.
Rehak: Did you have flood insurance?
Sprague: No. We are in the 500-year flood plain.
Rehak: What happened next?
Reconstruction, Loans and Grant: Start of Even Bigger Problem
Sprague: Luckily, our son in law is in a business that regularly uses lots of contractors. He got people repairing our home right away. And they only charged us cost. No markup. That was the good news. But because of financial losses in 2008, we still had a mortgage and less in our retirement fund than I planned. So we applied for an SBA loan. And they loaned us about $90,000. We also got about $30,000 of individual assistance from FEMA. But the repairs cost $130,000 and that didn’t include contents and replacement of two cars. At any rate, we were able to get back in our house by Christmas, which was close to a record.
Rehak: Some time later, HUD Homeowner Assistance grants became available and you applied for one. Did you see anything in the fine print to cause you concern?
Sprague: Yes, there was a clause called “Duplication of Benefits.” It said that if we had taken an SBA loan, we would not be eligible for the grant.
Rehak: Did you ask about that?
Sprague: Yes, the person at the City who processed our application for the General Land Office said that would not be a problem. “Not to worry about it,” she said.
Rehak: So you applied?
Sprague: Yes. We went thru a year long process to fill out forms. We made multiple visits to the HoAP offices, and many, many phone calls and emails.
Loan With Interest Classified Like Grant
Rehak: What happened?
Sprague: They denied us.
Rehak: Why?
Sprague: Duplication of benefits.
Rehak: How is a loan that you have to pay back with interest a “benefit”?
Sprague: Those are their rules. But that wasn’t our only problem. Even though we had receipts totaling $130,000 for repairs, and even though most other people in the neighborhood paid more than $200,000 to repair their homes, the City inspector estimated we only had about $105,000 worth of damage. That reduced the amount of any potential grant.
Not Following Katrina Model
Rehak: When people hear the words “duplication of benefits,” it conjures up images of double dipping and fraud.
Sprague: Right. Had we applied for GRANTS that totaled more than we paid, I would agree with that. But a loan is not a grant. You have to pay it back…with interest. So you’re not defrauding the government unless you default on the loan. Look at it this way.
That’s just not fair. A lot of people think that, not just me. After Katrina, they allowed people in New Orleans to pay down their SBA loans with homeowner assistance grants. It was NOT considered a duplication of benefits then!
Rehak: So, what did you do next? You’ve worked in and around government for decades.
Crenshaw Rallies Support in Congress and With Trump
Sprague: I went to Congressman Dan Crenshaw. He and his staff have been terrific. He got ten other members of Congress to send a letter to President Trump explaining that SBA loans should not be considered a duplication of benefits. That was not Congress’ intent. Trump agreed and had HUD-leader Ben Carson publish new guidance for duplication of benefits for Harvey. [See Section VB2 on page 28841 of Federal Register.]
But the Texas General Land Office, which was overseeing the distribution of these funds in Texas, still has not changed their rules. They said the new guidance came “too late.” They also said they didn’t have enough money to make grants to people who also had loans. So, Crenshaw pushed an additional $45 million appropriation through Congress.
Rehak: Where does that stand now?
Appropriations Bill Stalled In Senate Due to Virus
Sprague: It stalled in the Senate because everyone is focusing on corona virus now. The GLO has not changed its position. They say that even though Congress and the President have clarified their position, “the rules came too late.”
Rehak: That leaves you in limbo. And you’re dealing with two disasters now: Harvey and the virus.
Sprague: I understand that people are just doing their jobs, that they have rules to deal with, and they’re trying to prevent fraud. But it sure is frustrating when the President tells someone in his chain of command, “This is how I and Congress want this to work,” and then people down the line don’t follow instructions.
Rehak: Are you holding out much hope for a grant at this point?
Sprague: No time soon. It’s been more than two and a half years since Harvey. When natural disasters destroy people’s lives and homes, they need help right away, not three or four years later.
Hoping Appeals Last Long Enough
Rehak: Have you appealed?
Sprague: Yes. We’re on our second appeal. Three appeals are possible. We’re hoping we can keep this going long enough for Crenshaw’s appropriations bill to get some traction in the Senate and for the GLO to revise its rules.
Rehak: Is there any hope in the Senate? Have you approached Cruz or Cornyn?
Sprague: I’ve gotten some nice form letters back from them saying they are “working for all Texans.”
Rehak: What do you hope for at this point?
Sprague: I just hope we survive corona so our heirs don’t inherit a mountain of debt with our house. Until now, I’ve never asked anything from my government. I hope just this once they come through.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/4/2020
949 days after Hurricane Harvey
Note: This report for the Congressional Research Service describes issues with the Duplication of Benefits provision.
HCFCD Partners with SJRA on Sediment Trap Project
The SJRA announced earlier this week that the Harris County Flood Control District will partner with the River Authority on a “sediment trap” pilot study for the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto. The two have hired engineering firm Freese & Nichols to conceptually design the traps and identify the optimal locations for them.
Finding the Right Combination of Factors
Most sediment traps are big holes dug in a river or channel though some are off to the side. As water passes them, velocity decreases. Suspended sediment and sand being pushed along the river bed fall into them.
Sediment traps vary by depth, width, length, shape (wide, long, triangular, etc.), and placement relative to the channel. And as this Army Corps study shows, modifying any one of those factors can greatly affect their efficiency. The challenge: to find the optimal shape, size and location.
The optimal length, for instance, depends on the speed of floodwaters and the settling rate of sediment particles. The trap needs to be long enough to give suspended sand time to fall out of suspension. Otherwise, sand just passes over the trap and continues downriver.
Coming Out of HB1824 and River Basin Study
House Bill 1824, passed just last year, helps make sediment traps financially feasible. It allows the partners to remove material from the San Jacinto River and its tributaries to restore, maintain, or expand storm flow capacity without the need for state permitting or a royalty payment to the state.
Also note that the project will use data developed for the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Study. It started in April of 2019 and is now about two-thirds complete.
Scope of Work Outlined
The scope of work outlined for Freese & Nichols includes, but is not limited to:
The project does NOT extend into Lake Houston. Freese & Nichols will examine both the East and West Forks plus three miles upstream from the East and West Forks along certain tributaries. Tributaries would include, for instance, Lake Creek and Caney Creek. The idea is to intercept sediment before it can make its way into the lake.
Project Timing
The project timetable indicates completion in early fall of 2020, about the same time as the entire San Jacinto River Basin Study. Thus, any recommendations coming out of this project would not be constructed for this hurricane season. SJRA currently hopes to have the trap(s) installed by the end of 2022.
Pros and Cons of Sediment Traps
Proponents say sediment traps can reduce expensive dredging, restore fish habitat, reduce flood risk and more. However…
The scientific literature on sediment traps reveals mixed reviews. Many efforts fail, primarily because of lack of maintenance budgets and regular clean-outs. The SJRA and HCFCD plan to address that issue upfront by involving the sand mining industry. Notice that of the four location-ranking criteria bolded above, three favor proximity to sand mines:
Compensation for Sand Miners
A compensation agreement for sand miners who remove sediment from traps has not yet been worked out. However, Matt Barrett, SJRA’s project engineer, says, “The intended benefit to the APOs of participating in the public-private partnership would be that they could utilize or sell the material they remove from the trap(s). ”
Concerns of Environmental Groups
One of the concerns environmental groups have had about HB1824 (which began life as SB2126) is that it could potentially open the door to river mining and all of its risks.
River mining is outlawed in Europe, many other first-world nations, and even in some third world countries.
Thus, the sediment traps raise a question of potential liability. If a pipeline or bridge is undermined or if property is eroded by the traps, who is responsible?
“Stability of the river is key to the long term safety and well-being of our community. We know that our public agencies have an important task. Before spending additional taxpayer dollars, don’t we want to make sure that projects won’t make problems worse AND won’t raise taxpayer costs?” said Jill Boullion, Executive Director of the Bayou Land Conservancy.
SJRA Response to Concerns
The SJRA has consistently denied that it would permit wholesale river mining. Most recently, Matt Barrett, the River Authority’s engineer for the sediment trap project said, “SJRA has no intention of engaging in or facilitating river mining in the San Jacinto River or any of its tributaries. The legislative language in HB1824 allows for the removal of material for the purpose of restoring, maintaining, or expanding the capacity to convey storm flows. Any projects undertaken by SJRA to remove or facilitate the removal of material from the San Jacinto River or its tributaries would be for this purpose.”
Barrett is aware of potential hazards. “SJRA and its consultant are aware of the potential negative impacts that can be caused by trapping and removing sediment from a river or stream – changing the sediment balance – and prior to constructing any sediment trap or implementing removal of any material will perform analysis to ensure that any potential negative effects do not offset the positive.”
He sees the current design project as part of a pilot study that can scale up later. “One of the goals of this relatively small scale project is to serve as a “pilot” that gives us data on the real-world effectiveness of sand traps. If data indicates this is a viable flood risk mitigation solution, then additional funding and partnerships could be sought to expand the concept. We are excited to start this project and seek solutions to reduce flood risk.
For More Information
For more on how on sediment traps work, see this presentation found on the EPA site about a project in Michigan. It’s not directly analogous to south Texas because rainfall rates, soil types and gradients differ. But helps explain the theory of traps.
Click here to see Freese & Nichols’ full scope of work on the sediment trap project on the San Jacinto.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/3/2020
948 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 197 since Imelda
“Above-Average” Hurricane Season Predicted This Year
USA Today has reported that hurricane experts from Colorado State University (CSU) have predicted an above-average hurricane season this year. How much above average? About 140%, they say. In addition, CSU predicts a 69% chance for a MAJOR hurricane (Cat 3, 4 or 5) to strike the mainland U.S.
Warm Atlantic and El Niño Seen as Main Factors
Reasons: unusually warm seawater in the Atlantic and the likely LACK of an El Niño in the Pacific. El Niño in the Pacific usually sets up wind shear that tears apart storms in the Atlantic. Said another way, they help keep tropical storms from developing into full-force hurricanes. But without El Niño, the lack of shear allows more storms to develop and creates active hurricane seasons.
CSU predicts 18 named storms will develop.
AccuWeather released its hurricane season predictions a week earlier. They predict 14-18 names storms. Of those, seven to nine will likely become hurricanes, and two to four are likely to hit the U.S. mainland.
NOAA should issue its forecast in late May.
Hurricane season extends from June 1 to November 30.
March Warmth Unrelated to Hurricane Season
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control’s meteorologist, says that the unusually warm March that south Texas just experienced (about 8 degrees above normal) will have little effect on tropical storm formation. “There is some correlation with a warm Gulf of Mexico and severe weather and flooding along the Gulf Coast during the spring months. But there is little to no correlation to tropical activity in the Gulf during summer months.”
3-4 Inches of Rain Possible in Next 5 Days
Speaking of Spring rains, Lindner also predicts a stormy weather pattern will set up over our area for the next 5-7 days. He says “some severe weather and heavy rainfall will be possible.”
“Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with isolated totals of 3-4 inches will be possible between this afternoon and Saturday,” says Lindner. He predicts the heaviest rainfall across area north of I-10. Storms could train, producing the higher rainfall amounts. But Lindner also adds, “It has been dry of late and the soil can take several inches of rainfall as long as it is not all at once.” So no one is talking about flooding at this point.
NOAA predicts a slight chance of severe storms Friday evening, mostly west of Houston.
Here’s where NOAA predicts the heaviest rains to fall during the next 5 days and what the total accumulations should be.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/2/2020
947 Days since Hurricane Harvey