At 7:00 a.m. CDT Monday, Tropical Storm Marco was moving north toward the mouth of the Mississippi at 10 mph. The National Hurricane Center predicts Marco will approach the Louisiana coast this afternoon, and then turn west toward Houston/Galveston, following the coast through Tuesday night.
NHC expects Marco to become a tropical depression late on Tuesday and dissipate on Wednesday over southeast Texas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily northeast of the center.
Maximum sustained winds have already decreased to near 60 mph with higher gusts.
As One Storm Dissipates, Another Arrives
As Marco is breaking up, Laura could arrive as a Category 2 or higher hurricane.
The NHC still gives the Houston Area a 50-60% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds, most likely from Laura (see below).
The most likely time for arrival of those winds is during the day on Wednesday.
Laura continues to move quickly WNW at near 21 mph.
“Details of when Laura will turn toward the NW and N and where the core of the system will cross the coast over the NW Gulf remain unclear,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
The official NHC forecast brings Laura toward the TX/LA border, but landfall could be as far west as Galveston Bay and as far east as Vermillion Bay.
Models still show a wide spread of possible landfalls, but the largest cluster is on the TX/LA border.
Lindner says, “It is important to not focus solely on the exact landfall points as Laura will be a large hurricane with far reaching impacts.”
Laura Intensity
Laura is disorganized this morning. Likely little will change in Laura’s overall intensity today, due to interaction with the Cuban landmass. Once Laura reaches the SE Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, intensification is likely.
“It is unclear how quickly the inner core of Laura will form. Broad systems such as Laura tend to take time to develop,” says Lindner.
Laura will likely reach hurricane status over the central Gulf and be near major hurricane status over the NW Gulf on Wednesday.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Impacts from Laura
As of 7 a.m., NHC advises, “From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches near the Texas/Louisiana border. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and the possibility of some minor river flooding across this region.”
However, if the storm stays on its current course or shifts farther east, the amount of rainfall in the Houston Area will lessen. As of 4 a.m. this morning, Lindner predicted rainfall of:
2-4 inches east of I-45
1-3 inches west of I-45
Squalls will begin to arrive along the upper TX coast Wednesday and increase into Wednesday night and Thursday.
Tides/Storm Surge:
Laura will cause a large storm surge near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast. Significant swells will begin to arrive on Tuesday. This will likely drive water levels upward along the Gulf beaches and into Galveston Bay, especially at high tide.
Note: water level rises will likely begin along the coast early Wednesday.
Winds:
Sustained winds of 35-45mph will be possible east of I-45 with lower speeds west of I-45. Winds may gust higher in squalls especially over Chambers, Liberty, eastern Harris, and Galveston counties. Any shift west in the forecast track will bring stronger winds into the area.
Sustained tropical storm force winds arrive along the upper TX coast by early evening on Wednesday.
Preparedness
Preparations for the landfall of a hurricane along the SE TX or SW LA coast should be underway.
Enact hurricane plans and follow all advice and recommendations from local elected officials and emergency management agencies.
Residents near the coast in evacuation areas, should review plans and react quickly should any evacuation recommendations be ordered.
Keep gas tanks full.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2020
1091 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/092405_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-08-24 07:38:292020-08-24 08:01:41Marco Downgraded to Tropical Storm, But Track Shifts Toward Houston; Laura Could Hit Coast as Cat 2 or Higher
As of 2 p.m. Sunday, Tropical Storm Marco has officially turned into a hurricane and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows Laura continuing to shift toward the west.
Current positions of both storms as of 1:19 EDT Sunday, 8/23/2020.
NHC Forecast for Marco as of 1pm CDT
At this time, Marco is not a large threat to the Houston Area. However storm-surge warnings are up from Sabine Pass to Mobile Bay. Parts of coastal Louisiana could receive 4-6 feet of life-threatening storm surge.
The heaviest rain from Marco should hit from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
NOAA no longer predicts even a marginal risk of flash flooding from Marco for the Houston Area.
However, Houston could still feel significant wind from Marco. NHC shows Houston has a 60-70% chance of feeling tropical-storm-force winds (40 mph or higher).
The most likely arrival time for the winds will be Tuesday morning.
After Marco comes ashore as a hurricane, it will rapidly diminish to a tropical storm and then a tropical depression. NHC currently shows the remnants of the storm curling back into north Texas by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
Space City Weather predicts, “Most of the winds and heavy rainfall should remain to the east and north of the center, we do not anticipate severe conditions in the Houston region from Marco.”
Laura May Now Be Larger Threat to Houston Area
Overnight the cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm Laura shifted west toward east Texas. The most likely track is currently right up the Texas/Louisiana Border. Laura is currently a tropical storm, projected to intensify into a hurricane on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the central Gulf coast.
NOAA predicts Laura could dump 4-6 inches of rain on the Houston Area.
As with Marco, NHC predicts a 60-70% chance of tropical-storm-force winds for the Houston Area.
The most likely arrival time for Laura’s winds in the Houston Area will be Wednesday evening.
Net: Laura could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas likely to be affected by Marco earlier in the week.
Uncertainty Remains So Continue to Monitor Forecasts
Considerable uncertainty remains about both storms. Models disagree over where Laura will make landfall. They range from Corpus Christi to New Orleans at the moment. Space City Weather points out that “For the National Hurricane Center, the average track position error at 3.5 days before landfall is about 120 miles, which is a little bit greater than the distance between downtown Houston and the Texas-Louisiana border on Interstate 10.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/2020 based on input from Space City Weather, the National Hurricane Center, and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
1090 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/174033_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-08-23 15:13:092020-08-23 15:13:24NHC Says Marco Now Hurricane, Laura Shifting West
Updates on Tropical Storm Marco and Laura issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 p.m. EDT show both storms aiming toward Louisiana at this point. That doesn’t mean the Houston Area is out of the woods. The forecasts has changed four times since yesterday. Here’s the latest from the NHC.
Latest Cones of Uncertainty for Marco and Laura
Houston is now only on the fringe of the cone of uncertainty for Marco.
Even though forecasts for Laura have been shifting steadily west, NHC now shows Houston outside the cone of uncertainty.
Note, however, the images above do not indicate the width of the storms, just their potential tracks up to five days out. The width of the cone indicates the degree of uncertainty about the track.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center of Laura and 90 miles (150 km) from the center of Marco.
They also predict that Marco will dump 1 to 3 inches (isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches) on the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. This rainfall, they say, may result in areas of flash and urban flooding.
Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional rainfall and wind impacts by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas affected by Marco.
Wind Predictions
We could feel the arrival of tropical storm force winds from Marco around mid-day on Monday.
Tropical storm force winds from Laura could be felt in Houston on Wednesday morning.
However, there’s only a 20-30% chance we will feel 40 mph winds from either Laura or Marco.
Rainfall and Flooding Predictions
At present, NOAA shows Marco dumping 2-6 inches of rain, mainly over the states east of us. (See below).
As of 4:50 EDT Saturday, NOAA is predicting less than an inch of rainfall for the Houston Area.
NOAA has not issued rainfall predictions yet for Laura. However, NOAA does give the Houston region a marginal (5%) chance of flash flooding from Marco.
As of 4:50 pm Saturday, NOAA predicts Houston has only a 5% chance of flash flooding from the storms.
Better Safe Than Sorry; How to Stay Up to Date
Forecasters for Laura emphasize that the second storm could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas affected by Marco.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, warns, “While the situation for SE TX is looking better this afternoon, it would be important to maintain a close watch on this system in the event it weakens significantly and the system becomes more steered by the low level flow.” That could shift it back in the direction of Houston.
You can also sign up for text alerts from Ready Harris: Text MARCO to 888777 for emergency alerts. Better safe than sorry.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/2020
1089 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/205347.png?fit=897%2C738&ssl=1738897adminadmin2020-08-22 17:49:102020-08-22 17:50:44Lastest NHC Forecasts Show Marco, Laura Slamming Louisiana
Marco Downgraded to Tropical Storm, But Track Shifts Toward Houston; Laura Could Hit Coast as Cat 2 or Higher
At 7:00 a.m. CDT Monday, Tropical Storm Marco was moving north toward the mouth of the Mississippi at 10 mph. The National Hurricane Center predicts Marco will approach the Louisiana coast this afternoon, and then turn west toward Houston/Galveston, following the coast through Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds have already decreased to near 60 mph with higher gusts.
As One Storm Dissipates, Another Arrives
As Marco is breaking up, Laura could arrive as a Category 2 or higher hurricane.
The NHC still gives the Houston Area a 50-60% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds, most likely from Laura (see below).
The most likely time for arrival of those winds is during the day on Wednesday.
Laura continues to move quickly WNW at near 21 mph.
“Details of when Laura will turn toward the NW and N and where the core of the system will cross the coast over the NW Gulf remain unclear,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
The official NHC forecast brings Laura toward the TX/LA border, but landfall could be as far west as Galveston Bay and as far east as Vermillion Bay.
Lindner says, “It is important to not focus solely on the exact landfall points as Laura will be a large hurricane with far reaching impacts.”
Laura Intensity
Laura is disorganized this morning. Likely little will change in Laura’s overall intensity today, due to interaction with the Cuban landmass. Once Laura reaches the SE Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, intensification is likely.
“It is unclear how quickly the inner core of Laura will form. Broad systems such as Laura tend to take time to develop,” says Lindner.
Impacts from Laura
As of 7 a.m., NHC advises, “From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches near the Texas/Louisiana border. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and the possibility of some minor river flooding across this region.”
However, if the storm stays on its current course or shifts farther east, the amount of rainfall in the Houston Area will lessen. As of 4 a.m. this morning, Lindner predicted rainfall of:
Squalls will begin to arrive along the upper TX coast Wednesday and increase into Wednesday night and Thursday.
Tides/Storm Surge:
Laura will cause a large storm surge near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast. Significant swells will begin to arrive on Tuesday. This will likely drive water levels upward along the Gulf beaches and into Galveston Bay, especially at high tide.
Note: water level rises will likely begin along the coast early Wednesday.
Winds:
Sustained winds of 35-45mph will be possible east of I-45 with lower speeds west of I-45. Winds may gust higher in squalls especially over Chambers, Liberty, eastern Harris, and Galveston counties. Any shift west in the forecast track will bring stronger winds into the area.
Sustained tropical storm force winds arrive along the upper TX coast by early evening on Wednesday.
Preparedness
Preparations for the landfall of a hurricane along the SE TX or SW LA coast should be underway.
Enact hurricane plans and follow all advice and recommendations from local elected officials and emergency management agencies.
Residents near the coast in evacuation areas, should review plans and react quickly should any evacuation recommendations be ordered.
Keep gas tanks full.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2020
1091 Days after Hurricane Harvey
NHC Says Marco Now Hurricane, Laura Shifting West
As of 2 p.m. Sunday, Tropical Storm Marco has officially turned into a hurricane and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows Laura continuing to shift toward the west.
NHC Forecast for Marco as of 1pm CDT
At this time, Marco is not a large threat to the Houston Area. However storm-surge warnings are up from Sabine Pass to Mobile Bay. Parts of coastal Louisiana could receive 4-6 feet of life-threatening storm surge.
The heaviest rain from Marco should hit from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
NOAA no longer predicts even a marginal risk of flash flooding from Marco for the Houston Area.
However, Houston could still feel significant wind from Marco. NHC shows Houston has a 60-70% chance of feeling tropical-storm-force winds (40 mph or higher).
The most likely arrival time for the winds will be Tuesday morning.
After Marco comes ashore as a hurricane, it will rapidly diminish to a tropical storm and then a tropical depression. NHC currently shows the remnants of the storm curling back into north Texas by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
Space City Weather predicts, “Most of the winds and heavy rainfall should remain to the east and north of the center, we do not anticipate severe conditions in the Houston region from Marco.”
Laura May Now Be Larger Threat to Houston Area
Overnight the cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm Laura shifted west toward east Texas. The most likely track is currently right up the Texas/Louisiana Border. Laura is currently a tropical storm, projected to intensify into a hurricane on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the central Gulf coast.
NOAA predicts Laura could dump 4-6 inches of rain on the Houston Area.
As with Marco, NHC predicts a 60-70% chance of tropical-storm-force winds for the Houston Area.
The most likely arrival time for Laura’s winds in the Houston Area will be Wednesday evening.
Net: Laura could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas likely to be affected by Marco earlier in the week.
Uncertainty Remains So Continue to Monitor Forecasts
Considerable uncertainty remains about both storms. Models disagree over where Laura will make landfall. They range from Corpus Christi to New Orleans at the moment. Space City Weather points out that “For the National Hurricane Center, the average track position error at 3.5 days before landfall is about 120 miles, which is a little bit greater than the distance between downtown Houston and the Texas-Louisiana border on Interstate 10.”
So what should you do? Continue to monitor the progress of both storms throughout the week at Hurricanes.gov or on your favorite weather channel.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/2020 based on input from Space City Weather, the National Hurricane Center, and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
1090 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Lastest NHC Forecasts Show Marco, Laura Slamming Louisiana
Updates on Tropical Storm Marco and Laura issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 p.m. EDT show both storms aiming toward Louisiana at this point. That doesn’t mean the Houston Area is out of the woods. The forecasts has changed four times since yesterday. Here’s the latest from the NHC.
Latest Cones of Uncertainty for Marco and Laura
Note, however, the images above do not indicate the width of the storms, just their potential tracks up to five days out. The width of the cone indicates the degree of uncertainty about the track.
Intensity and Rainfall Predictions
Forecasters predicted Marco will become a hurricane tonight or Sunday, and remain at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf coast on Monday.
They also predict that Marco will dump 1 to 3 inches (isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches) on the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. This rainfall, they say, may result in areas of flash and urban flooding.
Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional rainfall and wind impacts by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas affected by Marco.
Wind Predictions
Rainfall and Flooding Predictions
At present, NOAA shows Marco dumping 2-6 inches of rain, mainly over the states east of us. (See below).
NOAA has not issued rainfall predictions yet for Laura. However, NOAA does give the Houston region a marginal (5%) chance of flash flooding from Marco.
Better Safe Than Sorry; How to Stay Up to Date
Forecasters for Laura emphasize that the second storm could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas affected by Marco.
NHC advises monitoring the progress of both storms several times a day until they pass. The NHC has started issuing updates every two to three hours for the duration of the storms.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, warns, “While the situation for SE TX is looking better this afternoon, it would be important to maintain a close watch on this system in the event it weakens significantly and the system becomes more steered by the low level flow.” That could shift it back in the direction of Houston.
You can also sign up for text alerts from Ready Harris: Text MARCO to 888777 for emergency alerts. Better safe than sorry.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/2020
1089 Days since Hurricane Harvey