A series of strong storm systems will converge over south Texas late this week bringing heavy rainfall. Moisture will rapidly increase Thursday afternoon and evening.
Black Friday Looking Like Bleak Friday
“We may even see development of showers over the coastal waters Thursday afternoon that begins to spread inland Thursday evening,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist. “Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase and expand in coverage and intensity early Friday. A warm front may begin to slow or even stall over southeast Texas from Friday afternoon into early Saturday. That will allow prolonged heavy rainfall due to cell training.”
Moisture profiles for the Friday afternoon into Saturday point toward heavy rainfall.
“Ingredients are in play for prolonged heavy rainfall, cell training, and possible flash flooding.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Then a cold front will approach the region at some point Saturday into early Sunday helping to focus additional rainfall. The upper level trough will slowly move eastward late Saturday into Sunday leading to decreasing rain chances and cold conditions.
Up to 5-6 inches Rainfall Possible with Hail Threat
A few of the storms on Friday and Saturday could be strong with the main threat being small hail.
Rainfall amounts over the next 5 days (mainly Friday and Saturday) will likely average 1-3 inches over the region with isolated totals of 5-6 inches possible.
Grounds are dry, so much of this rainfall will likely be beneficial. It will help mitigate increasing drought and fire-weather concerns.
Jeff Lindner
Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding
“However,” says Lindner, “should any sort of heavy rainfall axis develop and anchor over any specific location for a period of time…flash flooding could develop. The main concern would be street flooding with the heavier rainfall rates, but rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible in heavy rainfall materializes in the more urban areas.”
Five day rainfall forecastshows 3-4 inches in the Houston Area.NOAA gives Houston a marginal chance of flash flooding this weekend.
Humble ISD recently started construction of the new Kingwood Middle School. The gorgeous, new upgrade to Kingwood’s oldest middle school should open in the 2022 academic year. The new building will occupy the northern half of the site where the athletic fields used to be. After contractors finish the new building, they will then demolish the old one and rebuild the athletic fields on the southern half of the site. See below.
Temporary detention pond in foreground will service the site during construction. The new school will be built behind the old one (left).
Temporary Detention Along Cedar Knolls
Thankfully, one of the first elements of the site is a substantial detention pond on the site of an old parking lot. This pond will be temporary.
Close up of the temporary detention pond on the site of the old parking lot.
The ISD will replace it with a permanent one between Pine Terrace and the new running track. Contractors will then fill the old pond in and pave it over to replace the parking lot.
Construction Sequencing
The following diagrams show how the school district intends to sequence the construction. Contractors are currently in Phase 1B. They have built the temporary detention pond, and cleared/graded the site of the new school. After the new school is built (1C), they will demo the old one and build a second detention pond facing Pine Terrace in Step 2A. The final step (2B): rebuilding the athletic fields, filling in the temporary detention pond and repaving the parking lot.
When complete, the main entry of the new middle school should look like this.
New Kingwood Middle School: a new showcase for Kingwood. Quite a step up from the fortress-like, windowless schools built back in the Seventies and Eighties.
This video of the October 22, 2020 Humble ISD board meeting contains a presentation on the features of the new school. It promises to be a showcase for all of Kingwood. The part of the video about the new school starts around three minutes in. They discuss construction phasing starting at 13:42.
Nervous Neighbors Can Sleep Easier
A few blocks north and west of here, a cluster of homes not far from North Woodland Hills Elementary flooded during Imelda last year. While that situation was likely due to inadequate storm sewer design, I’m sure KMS neighbors will sleep easier knowing that detention ponds are a major part of the new KMS project from the start. They can certainly take some of the pressure off overloaded storm sewers.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/23/2020with help from Chris Bloch
1182 Days since Hurricane Havey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/20201123-DJI_0312.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-11-23 18:39:552020-11-23 22:23:08Construction of New Kingwood Middle School Starts With Temporary Detention Pond
Recently released subsidence maps show that excessive groundwater pumping in Montgomery County could lower the northern end of Lake Houston by two feet or more relative to the spillway at the southern end of the lake. While subsidence would lower the area near the spillway by a foot, it would lower areas near the county line even more – from 3 to 3.25 feet.
Subsidence Estimates are Conservative
And those estimates are conservative because:
Models under-predict subsidence; they currently model nothing from the Jasper Aquifer, which Quadvest, a MoCo water supplier, wants to pump heavily from (see more below).
Montgomery County factions are threatening legal action to let them pump more than their counterparts in the 15-county Groundwater Management Area #14 (GMA14) think is safe.
So how did we get to this point?
Groundwater Vs. Surface Water
The rest of the world is trying to convert to surface water to avoid subsidence. However, Simon Sequeira’s family-owned business, Quadvest, still pumps much groundwater in Montgomery County. He’s at war with the world. While others recognize subsidence and the science behind it, Sequeira denies it’s a problem – at least in Montgomery County.
At the last GMA14 meeting, lawyers were reportedly lining up to get a piece of his action and licking their lips.
Broken Promises And Legal Battles
Several years ago, Sequeira led a fight to get the board of the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District elected rather than appointed. Then he backed candidates who favored unlimited groundwater pumping and promised to Restore Affordable Water.
While groundwater is cheaper than surface water, water bills reportedly failed to come down. However, he has stopped paying the SJRA a fee designed to encourage conversion from groundwater to surface water. Sequeira says he is setting aside that money in a special fund in case he loses his legal battle. But his legal battles go far beyond the SJRA. He and the board of the Lonestar Groundwater Conservation District are also taking on the rest of GMA14. See map below.
GMA 14 includes the 15 colored counties above. Each color represents a different Conservation District.Montgomery County (dark blue) has the Lonestar Groundwater Conservation District.
Purpose of Groundwater Management Areas
GMA stands for “Groundwater Management Area.” GMAs were set up years ago, in part, to make sure that one county doesn’t hog groundwater, depriving surrounding areas and creating subsidence. So the other counties in GMA14 get to approve (or not) the groundwater withdrawal rates in Montgomery County.
They do that by defining “desired future conditions.” How much drawdown in an aquifer is acceptable? How much subsidence can people and infrastructure tolerate?
GMA14 wants Sequeira to leave 70% of the water in aquifers intact and to produce no more than 1 foot of subsidence. But the pumping levels proposed by Sequeira would produce far more subsidence, according to GMA14.
Hired-Gun Experts Defy Scientific Consensus
Ever since, Sequeira took on this fight, his hired-gun experts have been trying to prove subsidence doesn’t pose a threat in Montgomery County. Unfortunately, data and models don’t agree with him. His pumping has already created subsidence in MoCo and now threatens northern Harris County, too.
Front steps of Woodland’s homeowner Dr. Mark Meinrath in 1992 and 2014. Part of Meinrath’s home straddles a fault which subsidence triggered. Relative to the rest of his house, these front steps dropped 9.9 inches in 22 years.
Strangely enough, while science has shown – and the rest of the world believes – that unlimited groundwater pumping causes subsidence, Sequeira does not. His profit margin depends on cheap groundwater, unfettered by fees designed to encourage people to convert to surface water.
Five Alternative Plans Considered
Sequeira and company originally proposed three alternative plans to GMA14 that involved pumping enough groundwater to cause:
900 feet of decline in the Jasper Aquifer
700 feet of decline in the Jasper Aquifer
250 feet of decline in the Jasper Aquifer (Similar to “Run D” scenario, modeled below.)
Of those three, GMA14 only considered the last. GMA14 also came back with two more scenarios. They involved pumping even less groundwater:
115,000 acre-feet per year (Also similar to Lone Star’s “Run D” scenario. See below).
97,000 acre-feet per year
61,000 acre-feet per year
Note: Lone Star and GMA14 use different criteria to describe the volume pumped. GMA14 uses acre-feet-per-year instead of feet-of-decline in a specific aquifer. Nevertheless, experts say Sequeira’s last scenario is roughly comparable GMA14’s first.
The two sides are still arguing about how much can be pumped safely. And that’s why the lawyers are drooling.
Models Show Unacceptable Subsidence from Sequeira’s Least-Damaging Plan
Subsidence can alter the landscape in ways that cause water to collect in areas that otherwise might not flood. The maps below model projected subsidence in south Montgomery and northern Harris Counties. And we know that this model under-predicts subsidence. That’s because it doesn’t model ANY subsidence from the Jasper aquifer.
Sequeira’s least-damaging plan would cause up to 3.25 feet of subsidence in southern Montgomery County and up to 3 feet in northern Harris County, according to GMA14. See below.
Pumping 115,000 acre feet per year would cause up to 3.25 feet of subsidence in southern MoCo. That’s far more than the 1-foot in the Desired Future Conditions definedby GMA14.The same amount of pumping would cause up 3 feet of subsidence in parts of Kingwood and Huffman, and a foot or more in much of the rest of Harris County.
Effect on Humble, Kingwood, Atascocita, Huffman Areas
If you live in the Lake Houston Area and you stare at that last subsidence map long enough, eventually you will come to a jaw-dropping realization.
The Lake Houston spillway is only subsiding by a foot. But the headwaters of the lake are subsiding up to 3 feet. Imagine filling a bowl with water and then tilting it toward one side.
Homes and businesses in the headwaters of Lake Houston will be lowered2 feet relative to the spillway.
That’s a huge amount. Those who built homes a foot above the hundred year flood-plain could find themselves a foot below it. Those who had a couple inches of water in their homes during Harvey could have more than two feet in a similar future event because of subsidence.
Battle Lines Drawn
So the battle lines are drawn. Sequeira wants to allow up to 900 feet of decline in the Jasper aquifer. And GMA14 wants no more than 1 foot of subsidence with 70% of the aquifer intact. That would mean pumping less than 100,000 acre feet per year.
The presence of so many lawyers in the last GMA14 meeting reportedly has the smaller groundwater management districts nervous. One observer used the word “intimidated.” Some don’t have financial resources to fight Sequeira.
And that should make every homeowner in the Lake Houston Area nervous, too.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/22/2020
1181 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public policy and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Slide2.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=16751200adminadmin2020-11-22 15:36:592020-11-23 09:36:15Someone’s Trying To Tilt Lake Houston Toward Your House
Heavy Rainfall, Strong Thunderstorms Likely Friday, Saturday
A series of strong storm systems will converge over south Texas late this week bringing heavy rainfall. Moisture will rapidly increase Thursday afternoon and evening.
Black Friday Looking Like Bleak Friday
“We may even see development of showers over the coastal waters Thursday afternoon that begins to spread inland Thursday evening,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist. “Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase and expand in coverage and intensity early Friday. A warm front may begin to slow or even stall over southeast Texas from Friday afternoon into early Saturday. That will allow prolonged heavy rainfall due to cell training.”
Moisture profiles for the Friday afternoon into Saturday point toward heavy rainfall.
Then a cold front will approach the region at some point Saturday into early Sunday helping to focus additional rainfall. The upper level trough will slowly move eastward late Saturday into Sunday leading to decreasing rain chances and cold conditions.
Up to 5-6 inches Rainfall Possible with Hail Threat
A few of the storms on Friday and Saturday could be strong with the main threat being small hail.
Rainfall amounts over the next 5 days (mainly Friday and Saturday) will likely average 1-3 inches over the region with isolated totals of 5-6 inches possible.
Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding
“However,” says Lindner, “should any sort of heavy rainfall axis develop and anchor over any specific location for a period of time…flash flooding could develop. The main concern would be street flooding with the heavier rainfall rates, but rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible in heavy rainfall materializes in the more urban areas.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/25/2020
1184 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Construction of New Kingwood Middle School Starts With Temporary Detention Pond
Humble ISD recently started construction of the new Kingwood Middle School. The gorgeous, new upgrade to Kingwood’s oldest middle school should open in the 2022 academic year. The new building will occupy the northern half of the site where the athletic fields used to be. After contractors finish the new building, they will then demolish the old one and rebuild the athletic fields on the southern half of the site. See below.
Temporary Detention Along Cedar Knolls
Thankfully, one of the first elements of the site is a substantial detention pond on the site of an old parking lot. This pond will be temporary.
The ISD will replace it with a permanent one between Pine Terrace and the new running track. Contractors will then fill the old pond in and pave it over to replace the parking lot.
Construction Sequencing
The following diagrams show how the school district intends to sequence the construction. Contractors are currently in Phase 1B. They have built the temporary detention pond, and cleared/graded the site of the new school. After the new school is built (1C), they will demo the old one and build a second detention pond facing Pine Terrace in Step 2A. The final step (2B): rebuilding the athletic fields, filling in the temporary detention pond and repaving the parking lot.
When complete, the main entry of the new middle school should look like this.
For More Information
You can learn more about the project by visiting the Humble ISD 2018 Bond Fund website.
This video of the October 22, 2020 Humble ISD board meeting contains a presentation on the features of the new school. It promises to be a showcase for all of Kingwood. The part of the video about the new school starts around three minutes in. They discuss construction phasing starting at 13:42.
Nervous Neighbors Can Sleep Easier
A few blocks north and west of here, a cluster of homes not far from North Woodland Hills Elementary flooded during Imelda last year. While that situation was likely due to inadequate storm sewer design, I’m sure KMS neighbors will sleep easier knowing that detention ponds are a major part of the new KMS project from the start. They can certainly take some of the pressure off overloaded storm sewers.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/23/2020 with help from Chris Bloch
1182 Days since Hurricane Havey
Someone’s Trying To Tilt Lake Houston Toward Your House
Recently released subsidence maps show that excessive groundwater pumping in Montgomery County could lower the northern end of Lake Houston by two feet or more relative to the spillway at the southern end of the lake. While subsidence would lower the area near the spillway by a foot, it would lower areas near the county line even more – from 3 to 3.25 feet.
Subsidence Estimates are Conservative
And those estimates are conservative because:
So how did we get to this point?
Groundwater Vs. Surface Water
The rest of the world is trying to convert to surface water to avoid subsidence. However, Simon Sequeira’s family-owned business, Quadvest, still pumps much groundwater in Montgomery County. He’s at war with the world. While others recognize subsidence and the science behind it, Sequeira denies it’s a problem – at least in Montgomery County.
At the last GMA14 meeting, lawyers were reportedly lining up to get a piece of his action and licking their lips.
Broken Promises And Legal Battles
Several years ago, Sequeira led a fight to get the board of the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District elected rather than appointed. Then he backed candidates who favored unlimited groundwater pumping and promised to Restore Affordable Water.
While groundwater is cheaper than surface water, water bills reportedly failed to come down. However, he has stopped paying the SJRA a fee designed to encourage conversion from groundwater to surface water. Sequeira says he is setting aside that money in a special fund in case he loses his legal battle. But his legal battles go far beyond the SJRA. He and the board of the Lonestar Groundwater Conservation District are also taking on the rest of GMA14. See map below.
Purpose of Groundwater Management Areas
They do that by defining “desired future conditions.” How much drawdown in an aquifer is acceptable? How much subsidence can people and infrastructure tolerate?
GMA14 wants Sequeira to leave 70% of the water in aquifers intact and to produce no more than 1 foot of subsidence. But the pumping levels proposed by Sequeira would produce far more subsidence, according to GMA14.
Hired-Gun Experts Defy Scientific Consensus
Ever since, Sequeira took on this fight, his hired-gun experts have been trying to prove subsidence doesn’t pose a threat in Montgomery County. Unfortunately, data and models don’t agree with him. His pumping has already created subsidence in MoCo and now threatens northern Harris County, too.
Strangely enough, while science has shown – and the rest of the world believes – that unlimited groundwater pumping causes subsidence, Sequeira does not. His profit margin depends on cheap groundwater, unfettered by fees designed to encourage people to convert to surface water.
Five Alternative Plans Considered
Sequeira and company originally proposed three alternative plans to GMA14 that involved pumping enough groundwater to cause:
Of those three, GMA14 only considered the last. GMA14 also came back with two more scenarios. They involved pumping even less groundwater:
Note: Lone Star and GMA14 use different criteria to describe the volume pumped. GMA14 uses acre-feet-per-year instead of feet-of-decline in a specific aquifer. Nevertheless, experts say Sequeira’s last scenario is roughly comparable GMA14’s first.
The two sides are still arguing about how much can be pumped safely. And that’s why the lawyers are drooling.
Models Show Unacceptable Subsidence from Sequeira’s Least-Damaging Plan
Subsidence can alter the landscape in ways that cause water to collect in areas that otherwise might not flood. The maps below model projected subsidence in south Montgomery and northern Harris Counties. And we know that this model under-predicts subsidence. That’s because it doesn’t model ANY subsidence from the Jasper aquifer.
Sequeira’s least-damaging plan would cause up to 3.25 feet of subsidence in southern Montgomery County and up to 3 feet in northern Harris County, according to GMA14. See below.
Effect on Humble, Kingwood, Atascocita, Huffman Areas
If you live in the Lake Houston Area and you stare at that last subsidence map long enough, eventually you will come to a jaw-dropping realization.
Homes and businesses in the headwaters of Lake Houston will be lowered 2 feet relative to the spillway.
That’s a huge amount. Those who built homes a foot above the hundred year flood-plain could find themselves a foot below it. Those who had a couple inches of water in their homes during Harvey could have more than two feet in a similar future event because of subsidence.
Battle Lines Drawn
So the battle lines are drawn. Sequeira wants to allow up to 900 feet of decline in the Jasper aquifer. And GMA14 wants no more than 1 foot of subsidence with 70% of the aquifer intact. That would mean pumping less than 100,000 acre feet per year.
The presence of so many lawyers in the last GMA14 meeting reportedly has the smaller groundwater management districts nervous. One observer used the word “intimidated.” Some don’t have financial resources to fight Sequeira.
And that should make every homeowner in the Lake Houston Area nervous, too.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/22/2020
1181 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public policy and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas