Rain is winding down for today, but areas southwest of Houston along US59 received massive amounts today. Ganado in Wharton County reported 13.47 inches at one gage and 10.87 inches at another. Radar totals indicated 10-14 inches…much of that falling in a 4-6 hour period. According to Atlas 14, that’s a 100- to 200-year rain.
Atlas 14 Rainfall Frequency Chart for this area.
A Portent of Rainfall to Come
“This shows the capability of the air mass we will be dealing with nearly all week,” said Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist. “Expect additional “big totals” over parts of the area through the week.”
Ganado is on US 59 between Victoria and El Campo in Wharton County, southwest of Houston.
Heaviest Rains Spreading Toward Houston Later This Week
The threat of heavy to excessive rainfall will continue for the next several days and spread northeast into the Houston area. The threat of flooding and flash flooding will increase during that time, according to Lindner’s Sunday afternoon update.
Lindner predicts that we should get a break tonight, but another wave approaches on Monday late morning into the afternoon. Expect another flare up of showers and thunderstorms. “We will likely see another break on Monday night and then additional showers and storms on Tuesday,” he says.
Wednesday-Thursday
Lindner is most concerned about Wednesday into Thursday. Another tropical air mass from the Bay of Campeche will surge into our area. Upper level winds will help lift the surface moisture into thunderstorms. Training of storms from SSW to NNE looks increasingly likely. “Potential formation of a coastal trough or weak surface low near the lower Texas coast will only help to further promote rainfall.” Given the fact that we’re still talking about forecasts three or four days out, Lindner doesn’t want to get too aggressive with rainfall total predictions just yet. But he says that models show an overall pattern favoring heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
Rainfall Amounts
Additional rainfall amounts on top of what has already fallen will average 4-8 inches over the region with isolated totals of 10-15 inches certainly possible. The expected widespread nature of the rainfall along with potential high hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches support rapid onset flash flooding and rises on area watersheds especially our river system as rainfall totals pile up over time. Creeks and bayous in urban areas will tend to respond to the short duration higher rainfall rates and will need to be monitored closely.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/16/2021at 6PM based on information from NWS, HCFCD, and Space City Weather.
1356 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/NOAA-Atlas-14-Rainfall-Rates-for-Kingwood.png?fit=976%2C828&ssl=1828976adminadmin2021-05-16 18:16:302021-05-16 18:16:33Wharton County Receives 13.47 Inches So Far Today
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist is predicting a wet week ahead for southeast Texas with frequent rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. He also predicts flooding and flash flood threats that will increase throughout the week.
National Weather Service 5-Day forecasted rainfall amounts as of Sunday morning.
Says Lindner, “A short wave is approaching the area this morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the area and continue through the day. Storms have already anchored over portions of Matagorda into Jackson Counties this morning. Flash flood warnings are currently in effect for that area and this will be the story this week.”
An upper level storm system over the southwest will eject several disturbances across Texas this week, according to Lindner. These disturbances will interact with a near constant flow of tropical moisture off the Gulf of Mexico to produce rounds of storms and heavy rainfall with each disturbance. Humidity levels throughout the Houston region range from 70% to above 90%.
Given the feed of moisture, the potential for slow moving and training storms, and high moisture levels, heavy to excessive rainfall will be possible.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Expect Heavy Rain Through End of Week
Heavy rain is likely from today through the end of the week. While it will not rain the entire time, there will be several rounds. Grounds will saturate and run-off will increase during the wet week ahead.
Today’s concern: slow storm motions currently being seen southwest of the city. Such storm motions and rainfall rates over urban areas could quickly lead to street flooding.
Main concern: Wednesday and Thursday. The main upper-level storm will move into Texas. Southeast Texas will develop very favorable conditions for rainfall. A steady stream of moisture and strongly divergent winds aloft will support training of lines and clusters of thunderstorms. However…
…There could be flooding and heavy rainfall at nearly any time from today through Friday.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Rainfall Amounts
Lindner thinks rainfall totals over the next 5 days will likely average 4-6 inches over the region with isolated amounts of 8-10 inches. Hourly rainfall rates of 1-3 inches will be possible under stronger storms. Rises on area rivers will certainly be possible given the widespread nature of this event along with the multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. While totals will be spread out some over time, the concern of short term excessive rainfall rates resulting in flash flooding is possible in this pattern. Get out the galoshes. It’s going to be a wet week ahead.
Lake Report
At this hour, Lake Conroe is not releasing water and the lake is at its normal level of 201 feet above sea level.
This could get interesting. Lake Conroe is full and if you look closely at the rainfall map above, you will see that the NWS is predicting some of the heaviest rainfall for our area to be upstream from Lake Conroe.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/16/2021
1356 Days since Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/image001.gif?fit=800%2C561&ssl=1561800adminadmin2021-05-16 09:56:152021-05-16 18:15:58Wet Week Coming: 4-6 Inches Likely for Region, 8-10 Possible
Even though sand can be found in nearly every single country on Earth, the world could soon face a shortage. Usage around the world has tripled in the last twenty years, according to the United Nations Environment Program. That’s far greater than the rate at which sand is being replenished.
After water, sand is the second most used commodity on earth. It’s used in concrete, glass, computer chips, computer screens, tile, and more. When you look at deserts and oceans, you may think we have an infinite supply. But we don’t. According to this ten-minute video produced by CNBC, we’re using it faster than Mother Nature is creating it.
Seems Infinite But Isn’t
And not all types of sand are suited for all uses. Desert sand, for instance, is windblown and round. That makes it unsuitable for concrete. For strength, concrete requires the more angular type found near and in rivers.
One small part of the massive Hallett sand mine on the San Jacinto West Fork
A Short Course on Sand
If you want to understand more, I highly recommend this video produced by CNBC. It’s short – only about 10 minutes. But it’s packed with information that puts production, consumption, and environmental tradeoffs in perspective.
For instance, do you know how the “tragedy of the commons” can ultimately lead to the collapse of environments?
The video is filled with facts and answers that you can use to amaze friends and family.
Did you know that China used more sand in the last three years than the US did in the last century?
How much sand does it take to produce concrete?
Where will it come from in the future?
What impact will the massive infrastructure bill now pending in Congress have on sand production and therefore the environment?
This video will answer all those questions and more. I highly recommend it.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/14/2021based on a tip from Chris Manthei
1354 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Screen-Shot-2021-05-14-at-10.02.51-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C679&ssl=16791200adminadmin2021-05-14 23:15:032021-05-14 23:32:58Where Will Tomorrow’s Sand Come From?
Wharton County Receives 13.47 Inches So Far Today
Rain is winding down for today, but areas southwest of Houston along US59 received massive amounts today. Ganado in Wharton County reported 13.47 inches at one gage and 10.87 inches at another. Radar totals indicated 10-14 inches…much of that falling in a 4-6 hour period. According to Atlas 14, that’s a 100- to 200-year rain.
A Portent of Rainfall to Come
“This shows the capability of the air mass we will be dealing with nearly all week,” said Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist. “Expect additional “big totals” over parts of the area through the week.”
Ganado is on US 59 between Victoria and El Campo in Wharton County, southwest of Houston.
Heaviest Rains Spreading Toward Houston Later This Week
The threat of heavy to excessive rainfall will continue for the next several days and spread northeast into the Houston area. The threat of flooding and flash flooding will increase during that time, according to Lindner’s Sunday afternoon update.
Lindner predicts that we should get a break tonight, but another wave approaches on Monday late morning into the afternoon. Expect another flare up of showers and thunderstorms. “We will likely see another break on Monday night and then additional showers and storms on Tuesday,” he says.
Wednesday-Thursday
Lindner is most concerned about Wednesday into Thursday. Another tropical air mass from the Bay of Campeche will surge into our area. Upper level winds will help lift the surface moisture into thunderstorms. Training of storms from SSW to NNE looks increasingly likely. “Potential formation of a coastal trough or weak surface low near the lower Texas coast will only help to further promote rainfall.” Given the fact that we’re still talking about forecasts three or four days out, Lindner doesn’t want to get too aggressive with rainfall total predictions just yet. But he says that models show an overall pattern favoring heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
Rainfall Amounts
Additional rainfall amounts on top of what has already fallen will average 4-8 inches over the region with isolated totals of 10-15 inches certainly possible. The expected widespread nature of the rainfall along with potential high hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches support rapid onset flash flooding and rises on area watersheds especially our river system as rainfall totals pile up over time. Creeks and bayous in urban areas will tend to respond to the short duration higher rainfall rates and will need to be monitored closely.
Make sure you bookmark this page and consult it frequently throughout the week: Harris County Flood Warning System.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/16/2021 at 6PM based on information from NWS, HCFCD, and Space City Weather.
1356 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Wet Week Coming: 4-6 Inches Likely for Region, 8-10 Possible
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist is predicting a wet week ahead for southeast Texas with frequent rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. He also predicts flooding and flash flood threats that will increase throughout the week.
Upper Level Disturbances Meet Tropical Moisture Inflow
Says Lindner, “A short wave is approaching the area this morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the area and continue through the day. Storms have already anchored over portions of Matagorda into Jackson Counties this morning. Flash flood warnings are currently in effect for that area and this will be the story this week.”
An upper level storm system over the southwest will eject several disturbances across Texas this week, according to Lindner. These disturbances will interact with a near constant flow of tropical moisture off the Gulf of Mexico to produce rounds of storms and heavy rainfall with each disturbance. Humidity levels throughout the Houston region range from 70% to above 90%.
Expect Heavy Rain Through End of Week
Heavy rain is likely from today through the end of the week. While it will not rain the entire time, there will be several rounds. Grounds will saturate and run-off will increase during the wet week ahead.
Today’s concern: slow storm motions currently being seen southwest of the city. Such storm motions and rainfall rates over urban areas could quickly lead to street flooding.
Main concern: Wednesday and Thursday. The main upper-level storm will move into Texas. Southeast Texas will develop very favorable conditions for rainfall. A steady stream of moisture and strongly divergent winds aloft will support training of lines and clusters of thunderstorms. However…
Rainfall Amounts
Lindner thinks rainfall totals over the next 5 days will likely average 4-6 inches over the region with isolated amounts of 8-10 inches. Hourly rainfall rates of 1-3 inches will be possible under stronger storms. Rises on area rivers will certainly be possible given the widespread nature of this event along with the multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. While totals will be spread out some over time, the concern of short term excessive rainfall rates resulting in flash flooding is possible in this pattern. Get out the galoshes. It’s going to be a wet week ahead.
Lake Report
At this hour, Lake Conroe is not releasing water and the lake is at its normal level of 201 feet above sea level.
This could get interesting. Lake Conroe is full and if you look closely at the rainfall map above, you will see that the NWS is predicting some of the heaviest rainfall for our area to be upstream from Lake Conroe.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/16/2021
1356 Days since Harvey
Where Will Tomorrow’s Sand Come From?
Even though sand can be found in nearly every single country on Earth, the world could soon face a shortage. Usage around the world has tripled in the last twenty years, according to the United Nations Environment Program. That’s far greater than the rate at which sand is being replenished.
After water, sand is the second most used commodity on earth. It’s used in concrete, glass, computer chips, computer screens, tile, and more. When you look at deserts and oceans, you may think we have an infinite supply. But we don’t. According to this ten-minute video produced by CNBC, we’re using it faster than Mother Nature is creating it.
Seems Infinite But Isn’t
And not all types of sand are suited for all uses. Desert sand, for instance, is windblown and round. That makes it unsuitable for concrete. For strength, concrete requires the more angular type found near and in rivers.
A Short Course on Sand
If you want to understand more, I highly recommend this video produced by CNBC. It’s short – only about 10 minutes. But it’s packed with information that puts production, consumption, and environmental tradeoffs in perspective.
For instance, do you know how the “tragedy of the commons” can ultimately lead to the collapse of environments?
The video is filled with facts and answers that you can use to amaze friends and family.
This video will answer all those questions and more. I highly recommend it.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/14/2021 based on a tip from Chris Manthei
1354 Days after Hurricane Harvey