After four days of heavy rains, today looked like a respite. This morning’s predictions mentioned another inch or two on Friday and Saturday. But then this the National Hurricane Center posted this within the last few minutes: a warning about what could turn into the season’s first tropical depression. And hurricane season doesn’t officially start for another ten days.
20% chance of formation for yellow area in next two to five days
20% Chance Before Official Start of Season
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “The old complex of thunderstorms that moved off the Texas coast yesterday has festered over the west-central Gulf of Mexico today. While the satellite images look impressive, there appears to be no closed low pressure system at the surface and instead a surface trough extending across the region. Thunderstorms have been weakening this afternoon and there is no new development.”
Radar this morning showed storm festering in Gulf with a stationary trough drawing moisture up through Texas and Lousiana.
“So far this evening,” continued Lindner, “there is a large area of dry air to the west of the feature in the Gulf. The dry air will likely become entrained over time. However, some models show additional development for this feature as it moves generally toward the NW or NNW in the general direction of the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.”
NHC suggests the yellow feature has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 2 days.
This feature could help to enhance rainfall amounts over SE Texas this weekend, but any additional impacts beyond that at this time appear to be minimal, according to Lindner.
Take some time getting to know them know. During an actual storm, power outages and crowded bandwidth may make leisurely learning difficult.
Two other important sites for this area are the San Jacinto River Authority for Lake Conroe releases/levels and the Coastal Water Authority for Lake Houston levels. At this hour, the Lake Conroe is holding steady while releasing 2665 cubic feet per second. Lake Houston is still rising slightly with the flood gates wide open.
Lake Conroe Dashboard as of 7:30 PM on 5/20/21
Lake Houston as of 7:30PM , 5/20/21.
Posted By Bob Rehak on 5/20/21 Based on Information by NWS, NHC, HCFCD, SJRA, and Coast Water Authority
1360 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/two_atl_5d0-1.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2021-05-20 19:36:472021-05-20 19:49:12Could This Be the Start of Hurricane Season?
Today, the Lake Houston Area may finally get a breather from non-stop storms that blanketed the area for the previous three days. That doesn’t mean that we won’t get more rain. And it doesn’t mean flooding is not possible. It just means streams and bayous may get a chance to drain.
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Light rainfall continues mainly south of I-10 across the area.”
RadarScope Pro as of 10:54AM Houston time shows a large complex of storms to Houston’s south and west. They are moving north but have been dissipating as they move past the I-10 corridor for most of the morning.
Says Lindner, “A complex of thunderstorms is moving well into the NW Gulf. Another moving offshore of south Texas will likely keep southeast Texas stable today with only passing light or moderate rain showers and those will mainly focus south of I-10. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday and Friday with continued high moisture levels over the area. However, the activity looks more scattered in nature and not as organized or intense as the last 48 hours.”
Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected over the next 48 hours with the higher totals likely focused south of I-10.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Rainfall In This Event Almost Half of Year’s Total So Far
My digital rain gage indicates that we’ve received almost as much rain in the last three and a half days as we have year to date. That’s 138 days.
Here’s a breakdown:
Year to date: 23.64 inches
March: 1.95 inches
April: 4.01 inches
May to date: 11.38 inches
May 16: 1.22
May 17: 5.57
May 18: 1.64
May 19 so far: 1.22
According to the National Weather Service, the normal cumulative precipitation for May (up to the 19th) is 3.12 inches. And the normal yearly precipitation through today is 16.42 inches. Before this is all over, we could skew those averages a bit. We’ve exceeded the monthly average to date by a factor of two in the last two days!
Two-day rainfall totals for most Harris County gages as of 5/19/2021 at 10AM.
Run-off
Run-off continues from the rainfall over the last 48 hours with widespread totals of 3-5 inches over much of the area and an isolated amount of 8.56 inches in the Huffman area. Here’s how that is affecting local rivers and streams.
Rivers and Stream
Creeks in the northwestern portion of Harris County remain elevated and in some cases near bankfull. So do the middle and upper portions of Cedar Bayou and the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River. Creeks in the northwestern portion of Harris County will crest and slowly fall this afternoon while rises will continue along the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River. Peach Creek at 2090 is flooding.
East Fork at New Caney should experience minor to moderate flooding in next five days.
West Fork at 59 should experience minor flooding in low lying areas by Saturday.
Peach Creek at FM290 is already out of its banks according to the Harris County Flood Warning System.As of 11 am, elevation was 99.1. A ten-year flood at this gage is 99.3.
Lake Report
Lake Conroe is at 201.64 feet (normal is 201) at this writing and and releasing 2,665 cubic feet per second. Notice that they no longer have a box for seasonal lowering. They now call that COH (City of Houston) Diversion. It’s not that they have discontinued the seasonal lowering; they’ve just changed the way they account for it, according to Jace Houston, SJRA’s general manager. When the Lake is above 201 and water is inbound as it is now, SJRA is allowed to release water without it coming from the City of Houston’s portion.
When the flood threat has passed, if and when the City calls to resume seasonal lowering, the rate will show up in the COH diversion box. SJRA seems to be trying to lay responsibility for any inconvenience to Lake Conroe boaters at the feet of the City of Houston, which has already been dismissed from the Lake Conroe Association lawsuit.
Meanwhile, Lake Houston is up about a quarter foot so far this morning, despite the flood gates being wide open.
As of noon on 5/19/21
How Lake Houston Levels have varied during the last 7 days. Graph shows up to noon on 5/19.
As of this morning, here’s how White Oak Creek looks from the back yard of Woodstream Forest resident.
Photo from a video courtesy of Donald and Kristi Brown. Taken on 5/19/2021.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/19/2021 at Noon based on information from the NWS, HCFCD, Coastal Water Authority and SJRA
1359 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/White-Oak-Creek-by-Donald-Brown-in-Woodstream.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=16761200adminadmin2021-05-19 12:39:192021-05-19 15:12:11A Breather: Rain Mainly South of I-10 For Most of Day
Update: The tornado watch mentioned below turned into a tornado warning at 9:15 pm when radar spotted rotation in storms on the west side of Houston. with hail as large as 1.75 inches.
On Monday afternoon, May 17, Kingwood received approximately 5.5 inches of rain. It fell at the rate of more than an inch in 15 minutes at one point. The downpour flooded streets and Ben’s Branch near the St. Martha School on Woodland Hills came out of its banks. Luckily, no buildings flooded, but these pictures show how close the water came. The video and all photos below were taken by John Sedlak as the rain ended.
Frustration shows on the face of staffers as they watch floodwaters race across the parking lot and near their steps.View of main parking lot of St. Martha School. Bens Branch is in background.
At the Woodland Hills Bridge, Bens Branch briefly came out of its banks and threatened Kids in Action also.
At this point on Ben’s Branch, the man-made channel transitions to a natural one. Backups usually occur where that happens.
Compare this picture of the statue of Jesus taken yesterday with the one taken during Imelda below.
St. Martha School during Imelda on 9/19/2021
During Imelda, water DID get in the school. The damage took months to repair. As part of that process, the school “flood proofed itself.” Luckily that wasn’t needed yesterday.
Weather Tonight, Tomorrow Includes Tornado Watch Till 2 a.m
As I write this, my cell phone is blowing up with weather warnings, including a tornado watch. And I can hear distant claps of thunder.
Another line of thunderstorms is moving from the southwest to northeast, but also sliding toward the Lake Houston Area at the same time.
Image from KHGX radar taken from RadarScope Pro, an amazing app to increase situational awareness in extreme events.It provides coverage of most radars in North America.
A tornado watch (#190) has been issued for most of the area until 2 a.m.
Flash flood watch expires Thursday morning.
Watch for rises on the East Fork of the San Jacinto and the Trinity.
In Harris County, Spring Creek and Cypress Creek remain high and will need to be watched if heavy rain develops.
Releases from area reservoirs such as Lake Conroe will play a role in streamflow and water levels
An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher totals will be possible today. A stronger upper level disturbance will bring yet another round of heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday with additional totals of 2 to 4 inches of rain with again locally higher totals possible. Storm total rainfall by Thursday morning will average between 4 and 8 inches with isolated totals possibly exceeding 10 inches. The flood threat will be strongly dependent on where the rain falls and how quickly it falls.
Protective Actions for Tornadoes
Be Prepared. Have a safe room available and be ready to shelter quickly if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area or if you suspect a tornado is near. Bring pets indoors and delay travel until the threat of severe weather has passed.
If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area:
Get In: Get inside a sturdy structure, find shelter in an interior room, away from windows.
Get Low: Seek shelter on the lowest floor possible, or underground, if possible.
Hold On: Grab on to a sturdy object and hold on.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/18/2021 at 8:30 p.m. based on information from HCFCD, NWS and Alert Houston
1358 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/20210518-184661621_215685196779179_8862389311108822822_n.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2021-05-18 20:22:252021-05-18 21:24:14Close Call for St. Martha School, Kids in Action Yesterday; More Heavy Storms Possible Tonight, Tomorrow
Could This Be the Start of Hurricane Season?
After four days of heavy rains, today looked like a respite. This morning’s predictions mentioned another inch or two on Friday and Saturday. But then this the National Hurricane Center posted this within the last few minutes: a warning about what could turn into the season’s first tropical depression. And hurricane season doesn’t officially start for another ten days.
20% Chance Before Official Start of Season
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “The old complex of thunderstorms that moved off the Texas coast yesterday has festered over the west-central Gulf of Mexico today. While the satellite images look impressive, there appears to be no closed low pressure system at the surface and instead a surface trough extending across the region. Thunderstorms have been weakening this afternoon and there is no new development.”
“So far this evening,” continued Lindner, “there is a large area of dry air to the west of the feature in the Gulf. The dry air will likely become entrained over time. However, some models show additional development for this feature as it moves generally toward the NW or NNW in the general direction of the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.”
This feature could help to enhance rainfall amounts over SE Texas this weekend, but any additional impacts beyond that at this time appear to be minimal, according to Lindner.
Preparedness
This should serve to all that hurricane season begins in ten days. Don’t be caught unprepared. My Links page has many sites with helpful tips. You may also want to take this opportunity to bookmark the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, and Harris County Flood Warning System. They offer round the clock updates.
Take some time getting to know them know. During an actual storm, power outages and crowded bandwidth may make leisurely learning difficult.
Two other important sites for this area are the San Jacinto River Authority for Lake Conroe releases/levels and the Coastal Water Authority for Lake Houston levels. At this hour, the Lake Conroe is holding steady while releasing 2665 cubic feet per second. Lake Houston is still rising slightly with the flood gates wide open.
Posted By Bob Rehak on 5/20/21 Based on Information by NWS, NHC, HCFCD, SJRA, and Coast Water Authority
1360 Days since Hurricane Harvey
A Breather: Rain Mainly South of I-10 For Most of Day
Today, the Lake Houston Area may finally get a breather from non-stop storms that blanketed the area for the previous three days. That doesn’t mean that we won’t get more rain. And it doesn’t mean flooding is not possible. It just means streams and bayous may get a chance to drain.
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Light rainfall continues mainly south of I-10 across the area.”
Says Lindner, “A complex of thunderstorms is moving well into the NW Gulf. Another moving offshore of south Texas will likely keep southeast Texas stable today with only passing light or moderate rain showers and those will mainly focus south of I-10. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday and Friday with continued high moisture levels over the area. However, the activity looks more scattered in nature and not as organized or intense as the last 48 hours.”
Rainfall In This Event Almost Half of Year’s Total So Far
My digital rain gage indicates that we’ve received almost as much rain in the last three and a half days as we have year to date. That’s 138 days.
Here’s a breakdown:
According to the National Weather Service, the normal cumulative precipitation for May (up to the 19th) is 3.12 inches. And the normal yearly precipitation through today is 16.42 inches. Before this is all over, we could skew those averages a bit. We’ve exceeded the monthly average to date by a factor of two in the last two days!
Run-off
Run-off continues from the rainfall over the last 48 hours with widespread totals of 3-5 inches over much of the area and an isolated amount of 8.56 inches in the Huffman area. Here’s how that is affecting local rivers and streams.
Rivers and Stream
Creeks in the northwestern portion of Harris County remain elevated and in some cases near bankfull. So do the middle and upper portions of Cedar Bayou and the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River. Creeks in the northwestern portion of Harris County will crest and slowly fall this afternoon while rises will continue along the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River. Peach Creek at 2090 is flooding.
Lake Report
Lake Conroe is at 201.64 feet (normal is 201) at this writing and and releasing 2,665 cubic feet per second. Notice that they no longer have a box for seasonal lowering. They now call that COH (City of Houston) Diversion. It’s not that they have discontinued the seasonal lowering; they’ve just changed the way they account for it, according to Jace Houston, SJRA’s general manager. When the Lake is above 201 and water is inbound as it is now, SJRA is allowed to release water without it coming from the City of Houston’s portion.
When the flood threat has passed, if and when the City calls to resume seasonal lowering, the rate will show up in the COH diversion box. SJRA seems to be trying to lay responsibility for any inconvenience to Lake Conroe boaters at the feet of the City of Houston, which has already been dismissed from the Lake Conroe Association lawsuit.
Meanwhile, Lake Houston is up about a quarter foot so far this morning, despite the flood gates being wide open.
If rain during the rest of today remains light, SJRA may be able to avoid flooding people upstream and downstream, just as they did on May 1st, when the areas upstream from Lake Conroe received 8-10 inches of rain.
Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect Through Thursday Morning
In the meantime, a flash flood watch remains in effect for the Houston region through tomorrow morning. Chance of precipitation is 60% this afternoon, going up to 90% this evening. NWS predicts up to 1.25 inches of rain today and up to .75 tomorrow for the Kingwood area.
As of this morning, here’s how White Oak Creek looks from the back yard of Woodstream Forest resident.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/19/2021 at Noon based on information from the NWS, HCFCD, Coastal Water Authority and SJRA
1359 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Close Call for St. Martha School, Kids in Action Yesterday; More Heavy Storms Possible Tonight, Tomorrow
Update: The tornado watch mentioned below turned into a tornado warning at 9:15 pm when radar spotted rotation in storms on the west side of Houston. with hail as large as 1.75 inches.
On Monday afternoon, May 17, Kingwood received approximately 5.5 inches of rain. It fell at the rate of more than an inch in 15 minutes at one point. The downpour flooded streets and Ben’s Branch near the St. Martha School on Woodland Hills came out of its banks. Luckily, no buildings flooded, but these pictures show how close the water came. The video and all photos below were taken by John Sedlak as the rain ended.
At this point on Ben’s Branch, the man-made channel transitions to a natural one. Backups usually occur where that happens.
During Imelda, water DID get in the school. The damage took months to repair. As part of that process, the school “flood proofed itself.” Luckily that wasn’t needed yesterday.
Weather Tonight, Tomorrow Includes Tornado Watch Till 2 a.m
As I write this, my cell phone is blowing up with weather warnings, including a tornado watch. And I can hear distant claps of thunder.
Another line of thunderstorms is moving from the southwest to northeast, but also sliding toward the Lake Houston Area at the same time.
Here’s the National Weather Service discussion associated with these storms. Highlights:
An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher totals will be possible today. A stronger upper level disturbance will bring yet another round of heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday with additional totals of 2 to 4 inches of rain with again locally higher totals possible. Storm total rainfall by Thursday morning will average between 4 and 8 inches with isolated totals possibly exceeding 10 inches. The flood threat will be strongly dependent on where the rain falls and how quickly it falls.
Protective Actions for Tornadoes
Be Prepared. Have a safe room available and be ready to shelter quickly if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area or if you suspect a tornado is near. Bring pets indoors and delay travel until the threat of severe weather has passed.
If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/18/2021 at 8:30 p.m. based on information from HCFCD, NWS and Alert Houston
1358 Days since Hurricane Harvey