The official window used to calculate the average number of storms has been 1981 to 2010. But when Brian McNoldy of the University of Miami looked at the more recent 30 years from 1991 to 2020, he found an increase in the number of storms. Also, AccuWeather has already come out with its prediction, showing a substantial increase.
Year(s)
Storms
Hurricanes
Major Hurricanes
1981-2010 (Old Average)
12
6
3
1991-2020 (New Average)
14
7
3
2020 Actual
30
13
6
2021 Predicted by AccuWeather
16 to 20
7 to 10
3 to 5
Sources: Brian McNoldy, AccuWeather, NHC
Other Contributing Factors
Sea-Surface Temperatures
Sea-surface temperatures are slightly above normal for this time of year. Despite the polar outbreak in February which cooled the Gulf somewhat, the Caribbean and Atlantic remain higher than average. See anomaly map below from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Seven day average as of 4/3/2021
La Niña
Billingsley’s prediction also takes into account La Niña, which is part of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation).
NOAA describes El Niño and La Niña as the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific. The pattern can shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, precipitation and winds.
The El Niño phase usually means fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Typical influence of El Niño on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity. Map by NOAA Climate.gov, based on originals by Gerry Bell.
The La Niña phase usually means more hurricanes in The Atlantic.
Typical influence of La Niña on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity. Map by NOAA Climate.gov, based on originals by Gerry Bell.
Why? In short, the warm, wet air of El Niño in the tropical Pacific produces stronger vertical wind sheer which discourages hurricane formation in the Atlantic. The cool, dry air of La Niña produces less wind sheer which lets hurricanes form more easily.
AccuWeather predicts three to five hurricanes will make a direct hit on the United States this year. That’s partially due to another factor – the position of the Bermuda High. A weak Bermuda High means storms forming in the Atlantic would most likely aim at the Eastern Seaboard as opposed to coming into the Gulf.
Bottom line, “Be prepared. Anyone who has been through a hurricane can tell you it only takes one.”
During the season, the National Hurricane Center provides the most frequent updates of storm activities. They will start issuing tropical updates on May 15. And their reports will have more features than ever this year. See the list of new features including storm surge inundation values, weather forecasts for “blue-water” mariners, wave heights, cumulative maximum winds over 5-days, and more.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/3/2021based on information from Click2Houston, AccuWeather, and NOAA
1313 days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/atl_anom.gif?fit=800%2C737&ssl=1737800adminadmin2021-04-03 15:00:242021-04-03 15:16:43Another Above-Average Hurricane Season Predicted
The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) began slowly releasing water yesterday afternoon to lower the level of Lake Conroe to 200 feet per the temporary seasonal release policy adopted more than a year ago. When the seasonal release began, the lake stood at 201.01 feet – its normal target level. By noon today, the level stood at 200.94 feet.
Screen capture of SJRA dashboard as of 4:50PM yesterday.
Community Impact claims the release started at 4:20PM on 4/1/2020.
These pictures show the release.
Start of SJRA spring release. What 450 cubic feet per second looks like.
The slow release is designed to help protect downstream interests.
Looking back toward Lake Conroe.
Lake Lowering Policy by the Numbers
In the spring, SJRA lowers the lake one foot, starting April 1 and begins recapturing water on June 1.
In the summer and fall, it’s a little more complicated. On August 1, SJRA releases water again to reduce the lake level back to 200. Beginning Sept. 1, they take the water down another six inches. But the City of Houston may call for it to be lowered another six inches (to 199) if a named storm is predicted in the Gulf.
Downstream residents love the policy. They saw their communities destroyed during Harvey when the SJRA started releasing 80,000 cubic feet per second. Many Lake Conroe residents who flooded during Harvey also love the policy.
But some Lake Conroe residents feel inconvenienced and persuaded the Lake Conroe Association to file a lawsuit requesting a temporary restraining order to stop the lake lowering. A Montgomery County judge scheduled arguments in the lawsuit for April 16th, two weeks from now.
One resident who joined the suit claims the lower lake levels forced her to repair her bulkhead at a cost of $2000. And a bait shop owner claims he was driven out of business in 2018 when people couldn’t get their boats in the water.
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/20210402-IMG_1643.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2021-04-02 14:05:442021-04-02 14:18:01SJRA Began Spring Seasonal Release on April 1
HB531 passed the Texas House of Representatives today. 119 voted Yea, 27 Nay and 2 voted present. Before it can become law, it still needs to pass the Senate and then the Governor must sign it.
Background and Purpose
Some feel that renters in areas susceptible to flooding may be unaware of that risk. Although state law requires a person selling real property to disclose to prospective homeowners whether the property is located in a floodplain, there is no similar requirement with respect to renters. H.B. 531 seeks to ensure that tenants are equipped with the information necessary to make informed decisions.
It requires a landlord to provide tenant with a written notice indicating whether the landlord is aware that the leased dwelling is located in a 100-year floodplain. It would also require the landlord to disclose whether the dwelling sustained flood damage in the preceding five-year period.
A first responder during Harvey leased one of these homes next to Woodridge Village in North Kingwood Forest before Imelda. Here’s what the street looked like after Imelda. The cycle continued. HB 531 is designed to help renters in situations like these.
Provisions
H.B. 531 amends the Property Code to require the landlord of a residential dwelling to provide to a tenant a written notice stating whether the landlord is or is not aware that the dwelling is located in a 100-year floodplain. The bill sets out additional language related to informing the tenant of the dwelling’s potential susceptibility to flooding and the advisability of flood insurance.
However, if the landlord of a dwelling in a 100-year floodplain has raised the building above the 100-year floodplain in accordance with federal regulations, the landlord is then not required to disclose that the dwelling is located in the floodplain. The bill requires a landlord who knows that flooding has damaged any portion of a dwelling at least once during the five-year period immediately preceding the effective date of a lease to provide written notice to the tenant.
An amendment to H.B. 531 requires each applicable flood notice to be included in a separate written document given to a tenant before execution of a lease.
Lease Termination Rights
The bill lets a tenant terminate a lease if a landlord violates notice requirements and the tenant suffers a substantial loss or damage to the tenant’s personal property as a result of flooding. The tenant to give a written notice of termination to the landlord not later than the 30th day after the date the loss or damage occurred. The bill makes termination effective when the tenant surrenders possession of the dwelling.
It also requires the landlord, not later than the 30th day after the effective date of the termination, to refund to the tenant all rent or other amounts paid in advance under the lease. HB 531’s provisions do not affect a tenant’s liability for delinquent, unpaid rent or other sums owed to the landlord before the date the tenant terminated the lease.
If approved by the Senate and Governor, the bill would become effective on January 1, 2022.
1312 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 560 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/20191222-RJR_6203.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2021-04-01 18:37:472021-04-01 18:37:51Proposed New Law Mandates Flooding Disclosure to Renters
Another Above-Average Hurricane Season Predicted
This is the time of year when meteorologists start predicting how many hurricanes we will experience in the Atlantic Basin. Frank Billingsley at Click2Houston.com issued his prediction for an above-average hurricane season Friday. He also predicts that other meteorologists will predict the same. Here’s why.
Official Averages Out of Date
The official window used to calculate the average number of storms has been 1981 to 2010. But when Brian McNoldy of the University of Miami looked at the more recent 30 years from 1991 to 2020, he found an increase in the number of storms. Also, AccuWeather has already come out with its prediction, showing a substantial increase.
Other Contributing Factors
Sea-Surface Temperatures
Sea-surface temperatures are slightly above normal for this time of year. Despite the polar outbreak in February which cooled the Gulf somewhat, the Caribbean and Atlantic remain higher than average. See anomaly map below from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
La Niña
Billingsley’s prediction also takes into account La Niña, which is part of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation).
NOAA describes El Niño and La Niña as the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific. The pattern can shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, precipitation and winds.
The El Niño phase usually means fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic.
The La Niña phase usually means more hurricanes in The Atlantic.
The real question is: How long will La Niña last? La Niña was strong last year. That meant one of the busiest hurricane seasons ever. (See table above.) But will it fade by the start of this hurricane season or the end? The Texas Water Development Board predicted it would begin to fade after this month. But some models show it lasting through the end of the year.
Bermuda High
AccuWeather predicts three to five hurricanes will make a direct hit on the United States this year. That’s partially due to another factor – the position of the Bermuda High. A weak Bermuda High means storms forming in the Atlantic would most likely aim at the Eastern Seaboard as opposed to coming into the Gulf.
Valuable Resources During Hurricane Season
For the full AccuWeather forecast, click here.
Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast comes out next week. It’s one of the most respected in the world.
During the season, the National Hurricane Center provides the most frequent updates of storm activities. They will start issuing tropical updates on May 15. And their reports will have more features than ever this year. See the list of new features including storm surge inundation values, weather forecasts for “blue-water” mariners, wave heights, cumulative maximum winds over 5-days, and more.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/3/2021 based on information from Click2Houston, AccuWeather, and NOAA
1313 days since Hurricane Harvey
SJRA Began Spring Seasonal Release on April 1
The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) began slowly releasing water yesterday afternoon to lower the level of Lake Conroe to 200 feet per the temporary seasonal release policy adopted more than a year ago. When the seasonal release began, the lake stood at 201.01 feet – its normal target level. By noon today, the level stood at 200.94 feet.
Community Impact claims the release started at 4:20PM on 4/1/2020.
These pictures show the release.
Lake Lowering Policy by the Numbers
In the spring, SJRA lowers the lake one foot, starting April 1 and begins recapturing water on June 1.
In the summer and fall, it’s a little more complicated. On August 1, SJRA releases water again to reduce the lake level back to 200. Beginning Sept. 1, they take the water down another six inches. But the City of Houston may call for it to be lowered another six inches (to 199) if a named storm is predicted in the Gulf.
Statistically, the peak of hurricane season is September 10. The lake-lowering policy builds additional capacity to absorb heavy rains that could threaten the dam, and help prevent massive releases that cause downstream flooding.
Upstream/Downstream Differences of Opinion
Downstream residents love the policy. They saw their communities destroyed during Harvey when the SJRA started releasing 80,000 cubic feet per second. Many Lake Conroe residents who flooded during Harvey also love the policy.
But some Lake Conroe residents feel inconvenienced and persuaded the Lake Conroe Association to file a lawsuit requesting a temporary restraining order to stop the lake lowering. A Montgomery County judge scheduled arguments in the lawsuit for April 16th, two weeks from now.
One resident who joined the suit claims the lower lake levels forced her to repair her bulkhead at a cost of $2000. And a bait shop owner claims he was driven out of business in 2018 when people couldn’t get their boats in the water.
But pictures taken during last year’s lowering show plenty of boaters having plenty of fun despite the lower level. Evaporation often takes the lake down partway to the target level anyway. So, the SJRA may only need to release inches rather than feet to reach its target level – especially in late summer.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/2/2021
1312 days after Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Proposed New Law Mandates Flooding Disclosure to Renters
HB531 passed the Texas House of Representatives today. 119 voted Yea, 27 Nay and 2 voted present. Before it can become law, it still needs to pass the Senate and then the Governor must sign it.
Background and Purpose
Some feel that renters in areas susceptible to flooding may be unaware of that risk. Although state law requires a person selling real property to disclose to prospective homeowners whether the property is located in a floodplain, there is no similar requirement with respect to renters. H.B. 531 seeks to ensure that tenants are equipped with the information necessary to make informed decisions.
It requires a landlord to provide tenant with a written notice indicating whether the landlord is aware that the leased dwelling is located in a 100-year floodplain. It would also require the landlord to disclose whether the dwelling sustained flood damage in the preceding five-year period.
Some companies buy up homes on the cheap after floods and then rent them out to unsuspecting families. In North Kingwood Forest, I interviewed a family last year that fell into that category. The home flooded after May 7th in 2019, was fixed up, and quickly rented. Then the unsuspecting family promptly flooded during Imelda. Only then did the family learn of the properties history.
Provisions
H.B. 531 amends the Property Code to require the landlord of a residential dwelling to provide to a tenant a written notice stating whether the landlord is or is not aware that the dwelling is located in a 100-year floodplain. The bill sets out additional language related to informing the tenant of the dwelling’s potential susceptibility to flooding and the advisability of flood insurance.
However, if the landlord of a dwelling in a 100-year floodplain has raised the building above the 100-year floodplain in accordance with federal regulations, the landlord is then not required to disclose that the dwelling is located in the floodplain. The bill requires a landlord who knows that flooding has damaged any portion of a dwelling at least once during the five-year period immediately preceding the effective date of a lease to provide written notice to the tenant.
An amendment to H.B. 531 requires each applicable flood notice to be included in a separate written document given to a tenant before execution of a lease.
Lease Termination Rights
The bill lets a tenant terminate a lease if a landlord violates notice requirements and the tenant suffers a substantial loss or damage to the tenant’s personal property as a result of flooding. The tenant to give a written notice of termination to the landlord not later than the 30th day after the date the loss or damage occurred. The bill makes termination effective when the tenant surrenders possession of the dwelling.
It also requires the landlord, not later than the 30th day after the effective date of the termination, to refund to the tenant all rent or other amounts paid in advance under the lease. HB 531’s provisions do not affect a tenant’s liability for delinquent, unpaid rent or other sums owed to the landlord before the date the tenant terminated the lease.
If approved by the Senate and Governor, the bill would become effective on January 1, 2022.
For the full text of the bill as it currently stands, click here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/2/2021
1312 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 560 since Imelda