Tropical Wave 94L Approaching Barbados This Morning

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently tracking two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Basin. The one closest to the Caribbean rates a 70% chance of development. The system is not currently a threat to the Gulf of Mexico but you should keep your eye on it.

Invest 94L is the red.

Invest 94L

According to the NHC, showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning in association with a low pressure system located about 150 miles east of Barbados.

Environmental conditions favor additional development. A tropical depression will likely form later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

The disturbance will reach portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight. It will move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday and reach Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required today with shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

Radar from Barbados along with satellite images show a broad and elongated area of low pressure with scattered to numerous areas of disorganized convection. Details on the exact track will be important as to determine how much the system will interact with the island chain.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist warns that, “While the system is currently no immediate threat to Texas, residents should at least keep an eye on the forecast for updates over the next week.”

Second Area Less of a Threat

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in association with an elongated low pressure area located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Development of this system is becoming less likely during the next few days while it moves toward the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Preparedness

The peak of hurricane season is just a little more than a month away. This is the time of year when you should become serious about preparedness if you haven’t already done so.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/9/2021 based on information from the NHC and HCFCD

1441 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Comments Due to TCEQ on Sand-Mining BMPs by August 19

A couple weeks ago, I posted about rules governing the application of sand mining best management practices (BMPs). Now the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) is accepting public comments on the BMPs themselves. Think of the difference this way: how/when to enforce guidelines vs the guidelines themselves.

More than 90 people responded to the enforcement question. Thank you. The TCEQ left so many “outs,” it was doubtful whether sand mines would ever have had to follow any of the BMPs.

Comments Coming Due on BMPs, Not Just Rules Governing Them

Now it’s time to consider the content of the BMPs themselves and provide public comment.

We have more time this time – until August 19. So I will publish a series of posts about different aspects of the BMPs that I believe could be improved.

Here is a draft of the 24-page document listing all BMPs that the TCEQ is considering.

Today, I will simply give you an overview of the major categories of recommendations. In coming days, I will discuss major areas of concern. These will be things where, in my opinion, the sand mines in the San Jacinto watershed fall short of ideal practices in ways that directly contribute to flooding.

Some Caveats

Having said that, let me also qualify that last statement three ways:

  1. Not all sand mines are bad actors, but some are.
  2. We need sand to make concrete.
  3. Sediment comes from both man-made and natural sources. While massive amounts of sand clogged our river after Harvey, it’s unclear what proportion of that came from sand mines.

It’s easy to see that floodwaters eroded stockpiles, breached levees, and swept sediment downstream. It’s also easy to see how suboptimal sand mining practices contributed to those issues.

Sand mining increased the width of the exposed sediment adjacent to the river by an average of 33X.

USGS calculations, photographs, and first responder reports during Harvey also indicate that the velocity of the river was sufficient to transport not just sand, but large chunks of gravel.

However, it’s not clear how much suboptimal sand mining practices contributed to blockages, such as the East and West Fork Mouth Bars, Sand Island, and the giant side bar that blocked the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. Some likely also came from erosion of the river bed itself as well as upstream developers with suboptimal practices of their own.

It will take someone smarter than me to figure that how much came from where.

The Public Policy Question

It is clear, however, that we’re investing $222 million in dredging to eliminate sediment blockages that contribute to flooding. And many sand mines have shown, in my opinion, a callous disregard for the cleanup costs they externalize to the public sector. One is even currently being sued by the Texas Attorney General.

Scope of BMPs Being Proposed

The BMPs being considered by the TCEQ have to do with:

  • Vegetative and Structural Controls to help reduce erosion
  • Pre-Mining site evaluation, drainage studies and site preparation
  • Mining activities, such as dredging, processing, maintenance, and the handling of petroleum products
  • Post-Mining site stabilization, debris removal, and property grading
  • Requirements for a final stabilization report.

I will discuss each of these in coming days before the deadline. I will also show photos that illustrate how current practices fall short of BMPs and contribute to sedimentation.

Sand mine pumping wastewater directly into San Jacinto West Fork
Another sand mine discharging wastewater directly into the West Fork.

Two things ARE clear, however. We can and must do better if we want to reduce:

  • Financial hemorrhaging
  • Flooding from man-made blockages that clog our rivers.

How to Make a Public Comment

Submit written comments on BMPs to Macayla.Coleman@Tceq.Texas.gov with the subject line “BMPs Guidance Document” before August 19, 2021.

More details to follow in the coming days.

Posted By Bob Rehak on 7/8/2021

1440 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Improved TexasFlood.org Website Shows Spread of Floodwaters and Inundated Buildings by Gage Height

The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) has reorganized the sea of flood-related information and redesigned the TexasFlood.org website to provide a more user-friendly resource for Texans who want to increase their flood awareness and preparedness.

Given the deadly nature of flood events and the rapid timeframe in which they can occur, remaining flood-ready is essential.

One Feature Shows Flood Spread and Inundated Buildings by Gage Height

TexasFlood.org provides fundamental information on emergency preparation for and recovery from flood events, as well as web tools to better understand flood risk, in a format that is easy to access and easy to understand.

One of the most useful new features is an interactive map that shows the spread of floodwaters based on the gage height.

Select a gage and a height and see instantly how far the floodwaters will spread. This shows spread based on the USGS Gage at FM1485 and the East fork.

I selected the height of the highest gage reading during the May floods this year at FM1485 and the East Fork. Then I zoomed in and found that 36 structures were in danger of being inundated. You can even see their locations!

Information like this is not only useful when considering purchasing a building, but also when considering whether to evacuate.

Other Useful Features

TexasFlood.org also features resources and tools that allow users to:

  • Review lake levels and river heights
  • Check current precipitation totals and weather conditions
  • Evaluate potential flood risk
  • See the impacts of different hypothetical flooding scenarios
  • Identify and connect with their local floodplain administrator
  • Learn the primary types of flooding and basics of flood insurance

The website highlights the reasons why emergency preparedness is vital to proper flood preparedness, including the importance of floodproofing and awareness of second-order damages after a flood event.

One-Stop Information Shop

The TWDB has gathered important information from other local, state, and federal entities to provide the most relevant information for Texans in one convenient online location. Hurricane season runs through November 30 each year. And historically speaking, 80% of the storms for this year are still in front of us. Just today, the National Hurricane Center highlighted another area of concern in the Atlantic, bringing the active total to three.

So TWDB encourages all Texans to check out the revamped TexasFlood.org. Learn how to pack a flood kit, download resources to prepare family, review individual flood risk, plan an evacuation route, and more.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/7/2021 based on a press release by TWDB

1439 Days since Hurricane Harvey