Tomorrow, September 10th, is the statistical peak of hurricane season.
Peak based on 100 years of data.
And the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is actively monitoring four areas in the Atlantic Basin.
As of 7PM Houston time on 9/9/2021.
Currently, a 40% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation
That orange area is currently where Ida and Mindy both formed in the last two weeks. In the last couple days, the NHC has steadily upgraded its chances of tropical formation. As of tonight, they give it a 40% chance sometime within the next five days.
Currently, NHC describes Area #1 as a tropical wave.
The northern portion of the wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Honduras and the western Caribbean Sea.
This system should move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing heavy weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions support gradual development. A tropical depression could form by early next week before the system moves inland over mainland Mexico. According to NHC:
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.
Increasing Chances of Excessive Rainfall, Likely Starting Sunday
Dry air currently over the region will yield hot days and “coolish” nights into Saturday with no chance of rainfall. However, the tropical wave will change that. A pool of deep tropical moisture will increase rain chances along the TX coast from Sunday through Wednesday of next week. It could arrive as early as Saturday evening, but more likely will arrive on Sunday.
Shower and thunderstorm activity over the western Gulf will become widespread during the weekend and into early next week. Global models are largely in agreement on a surge of moisture along the TX coast from Sunday through Wednesday. Copious rainfall is likely.
The National Weather Service extended 7-day forecast has been increasing the forecast amounts for the north Houston area throughout the day.
Between this morning and this evening, that bright orange area has crept farther inland.
Widespread 5-7 Inches, 10-12 Possible
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, warns that a weak tropical cyclone could form from this. “Several models have been bouncing around with this over the last several days. They show weak closed surface lows along the Mexican or Texas coastline next week,” says Lindner. “While any sort of surface low that may form next week would help to focus rainfall in that particular area, it is unclear where any low may form if at all and generally does not change the overall wet pattern that is incoming.”
The NWS Weather Prediction Center currently shows rainfall accumulations for next week could total 5-7 inches near the coast with slightly less inland. Lindner, however, predicts that isolated areas could see as much as 10-12 inches by the middle of next week.
No predictions have been made yet regarding potential flooding issues.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/9/2021 based on information from NHC, NWS, and HCFCD
1472 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 721 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/p168i.gif?fit=800%2C561&ssl=1561800adminadmin2021-09-09 19:58:442021-09-09 20:03:43Excessive Rainfall Likely Next Week
Established in 1994 and held annually on the fourth Saturday in September, National Public Lands Day is traditionally the nation’s largest single-day volunteer effort. It provides all lovers of the environment an opportunity to show appreciation for precious natural resources through volunteer opportunities.
Join the Bayou Land Conservancy and REI in Conserving Public Land
This year, National Public Lands Day falls on Saturday September 25. The theme is “More Ways to Connect to Nature,” and there are many ways to connect in this area. I highly recommend joining the Bayou Land Conservancy (BLC) – a local, environmental non-profit – at the Lake Houston Wilderness Park. BLC specializes in preserving land along streams for flood control, clean water, and wildlife.
The BLC and volunteers will partner with REI for the day to help spruce up the park and get a guided tour from park naturalists. Refreshments will be provided, but they recommend bringing your own water in a reusable container and a snack. If you’ve never been to Lake Houston Wilderness Park, it’s a big, tranquil place filled with wetlands and dense forests. In fact, it’s the largest urban nature park in America – almost 5,000 acres – and like stepping back in time.
Riparian vegetation in Lake Houston Park helps prevent erosion, sustain wildlife, and reduce flooding.
Shoreline of Lake Houston Park.Fall colors light up the landscape as well as people’s faces.
Looking NW across the vastness of unspoiled Lake Houston Park. Photo taken Jan. 1, 2021
Directly Benefitting the Lake Houston Headwaters and Reducing Flooding
The focus of work at the Lake Houston Wilderness Park on the 25th will directly benefit the Gully Branch-Peach Creek watershed, right in Kingwood’s backyard plus, Porter’s, New Caney’s and Huffman’s!
With 2.5 months left in hurricane season, take time to help preserve nature and reduce flooding in a natural ,cost-free way. More conserved lands mean more safe places for water to go without endangering our communities.
How to Register, Learn More
Please join BLC in conserving land on National Public Lands Day on the 25th of September! With 5,000 acres, there’s plenty of room for social distancing in a healthy environment.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SJR_704_048-e1612057029212.jpg?fit=1200%2C811&ssl=18111200adminadmin2021-09-08 21:35:492021-09-08 22:24:03Save the Date: National Public Lands Day Volunteer Event on September 25
Last week, a story about ‘wind fingerprints’ in The Washington Post caught my eye. It purported to show the difference between Ida and Katrina. The story by Bonnie Berkowitz and Laris Karklis starts with this teaser: “Ida hit Louisiana with faster winds than Katrina, but a hurricane’s category number is just part of what makes each storm unique — and uniquely destructive.” I was hooked.
Factors in Fingerprinting Storms
“Ida struck Louisiana on Aug. 29 as a strong Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with maximum winds of about 150 mph — much higher than the maximum winds of 125 mph from Katrina, a Category 3,” say the authors.
However, the wind speed is just part of the picture. To get the big picture, one must also consider:
Breadth of the wind field
Wind direction
Total energy contained in the storm
Forward motion
Angle at which it struck the coastline
Track
Proximity to population centers
And more.
The story quotes Michael Kozar, a meteorologist who models storms for risk-analysis company RMS. Says Kozar, each wind field is like a fingerprint.
“Each wind fingerprint is unique to the storm, and it is why each storm produces a unique amount of loss and has unique impacts.”
Michael Kozar, RMS
Examples of Wind Fingerprint Differences
“A very large storm with moderate winds may contain more integrated kinetic energy than an intense but small storm, and it may create havoc for people on land in a different way,” says the story.
The story goes into great detail comparing Ida to Katrina. Ida packed higher winds (150 vs. 125 mph peaks). But Katrina packed more energy – 116 terajoules vs. 47 for Ida. By comparison, Superstorm Sandy in 2012 had an estimated 330 terajoules of energy.
A terajoule is so large, it’s hard to find an analogy that puts it in perspective for most people. But scientists estimate that the atomic bomb over Hiroshima released about 63 terajoules of energy – slightly more than Ida, but a little less than half of Katrina.
RMS estimates the smaller punch of Ida was due in part to the shorter time it was able to gather steam, so to speak, over open water. Ida gained full strength just hours before landfall. But Katrina churned over the open Gulf for three days before slamming into Louisiana. It grew much larger, in fact, about twice as large.
Relative size of wind fields estimated by risk-analysis firm RMS. Katrina more than doubled Ida’s diameter.
RMS also explained how Katrina came in east of Lake Pontchartrain, while Ida came in to the west. With the counter-clockwise rotation of low pressure systems in the northern hemisphere, that meant Katrina pushed water toward New Orleans and Ida pushed water away.
The forward speed of a storm can make a huge difference in the types of damage it causes compared to its rotational speed. Category 4 Harvey, for instance, stalled over Houston for days, dropping torrential rains. But Category 5 Hurricane Andrew ripped through south Florida in hours. Harvey flooded homes. Andrew tore them apart.
This article gives you both insights and food for thought that can help you prepare better for the next storm. It’s highly recommended reading.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/7/2021 based on a story by Bonnie Berkowitz and Laris Karklis in The Washington Post and data from RMS
1470 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Katrina-vs-Ida-Wind-Fields.jpg?fit=1200%2C744&ssl=17441200adminadmin2021-09-07 17:36:152021-09-07 17:47:41‘Wind Fingerprints’: Scientists Dissect What Accounts for the Destructiveness of Different Storms
Excessive Rainfall Likely Next Week
Tomorrow, September 10th, is the statistical peak of hurricane season.
And the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is actively monitoring four areas in the Atlantic Basin.
Currently, a 40% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation
That orange area is currently where Ida and Mindy both formed in the last two weeks. In the last couple days, the NHC has steadily upgraded its chances of tropical formation. As of tonight, they give it a 40% chance sometime within the next five days.
The northern portion of the wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Honduras and the western Caribbean Sea.
This system should move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing heavy weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions support gradual development. A tropical depression could form by early next week before the system moves inland over mainland Mexico. According to NHC:
Increasing Chances of Excessive Rainfall, Likely Starting Sunday
Dry air currently over the region will yield hot days and “coolish” nights into Saturday with no chance of rainfall. However, the tropical wave will change that. A pool of deep tropical moisture will increase rain chances along the TX coast from Sunday through Wednesday of next week. It could arrive as early as Saturday evening, but more likely will arrive on Sunday.
Shower and thunderstorm activity over the western Gulf will become widespread during the weekend and into early next week. Global models are largely in agreement on a surge of moisture along the TX coast from Sunday through Wednesday. Copious rainfall is likely.
The National Weather Service extended 7-day forecast has been increasing the forecast amounts for the north Houston area throughout the day.
Widespread 5-7 Inches, 10-12 Possible
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, warns that a weak tropical cyclone could form from this. “Several models have been bouncing around with this over the last several days. They show weak closed surface lows along the Mexican or Texas coastline next week,” says Lindner. “While any sort of surface low that may form next week would help to focus rainfall in that particular area, it is unclear where any low may form if at all and generally does not change the overall wet pattern that is incoming.”
The NWS Weather Prediction Center currently shows rainfall accumulations for next week could total 5-7 inches near the coast with slightly less inland. Lindner, however, predicts that isolated areas could see as much as 10-12 inches by the middle of next week.
No predictions have been made yet regarding potential flooding issues.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/9/2021 based on information from NHC, NWS, and HCFCD
1472 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 721 since Imelda
Save the Date: National Public Lands Day Volunteer Event on September 25
Established in 1994 and held annually on the fourth Saturday in September, National Public Lands Day is traditionally the nation’s largest single-day volunteer effort. It provides all lovers of the environment an opportunity to show appreciation for precious natural resources through volunteer opportunities.
Join the Bayou Land Conservancy and REI in Conserving Public Land
This year, National Public Lands Day falls on Saturday September 25. The theme is “More Ways to Connect to Nature,” and there are many ways to connect in this area. I highly recommend joining the Bayou Land Conservancy (BLC) – a local, environmental non-profit – at the Lake Houston Wilderness Park. BLC specializes in preserving land along streams for flood control, clean water, and wildlife.
The BLC and volunteers will partner with REI for the day to help spruce up the park and get a guided tour from park naturalists. Refreshments will be provided, but they recommend bringing your own water in a reusable container and a snack. If you’ve never been to Lake Houston Wilderness Park, it’s a big, tranquil place filled with wetlands and dense forests. In fact, it’s the largest urban nature park in America – almost 5,000 acres – and like stepping back in time.
To see some of this gorgeous park, and the difference it makes in the San Jacinto East Fork Watershed (compared to the West Fork), see this post I developed in 2018 about the importance of riparian vegetation in reducing erosion.
Directly Benefitting the Lake Houston Headwaters and Reducing Flooding
The focus of work at the Lake Houston Wilderness Park on the 25th will directly benefit the Gully Branch-Peach Creek watershed, right in Kingwood’s backyard plus, Porter’s, New Caney’s and Huffman’s!
With 2.5 months left in hurricane season, take time to help preserve nature and reduce flooding in a natural ,cost-free way. More conserved lands mean more safe places for water to go without endangering our communities.
How to Register, Learn More
Please join BLC in conserving land on National Public Lands Day on the 25th of September! With 5,000 acres, there’s plenty of room for social distancing in a healthy environment.
For more information on the day’s events and how to register, visit BLC’s website at Bayouland.org/national-public-lands-day.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/8/2021
1471 Days after Hurricane Harvey
‘Wind Fingerprints’: Scientists Dissect What Accounts for the Destructiveness of Different Storms
Last week, a story about ‘wind fingerprints’ in The Washington Post caught my eye. It purported to show the difference between Ida and Katrina. The story by Bonnie Berkowitz and Laris Karklis starts with this teaser: “Ida hit Louisiana with faster winds than Katrina, but a hurricane’s category number is just part of what makes each storm unique — and uniquely destructive.” I was hooked.
Factors in Fingerprinting Storms
“Ida struck Louisiana on Aug. 29 as a strong Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with maximum winds of about 150 mph — much higher than the maximum winds of 125 mph from Katrina, a Category 3,” say the authors.
However, the wind speed is just part of the picture. To get the big picture, one must also consider:
The story quotes Michael Kozar, a meteorologist who models storms for risk-analysis company RMS. Says Kozar, each wind field is like a fingerprint.
Examples of Wind Fingerprint Differences
“A very large storm with moderate winds may contain more integrated kinetic energy than an intense but small storm, and it may create havoc for people on land in a different way,” says the story.
The story goes into great detail comparing Ida to Katrina. Ida packed higher winds (150 vs. 125 mph peaks). But Katrina packed more energy – 116 terajoules vs. 47 for Ida. By comparison, Superstorm Sandy in 2012 had an estimated 330 terajoules of energy.
A terajoule is so large, it’s hard to find an analogy that puts it in perspective for most people. But scientists estimate that the atomic bomb over Hiroshima released about 63 terajoules of energy – slightly more than Ida, but a little less than half of Katrina.
RMS estimates the smaller punch of Ida was due in part to the shorter time it was able to gather steam, so to speak, over open water. Ida gained full strength just hours before landfall. But Katrina churned over the open Gulf for three days before slamming into Louisiana. It grew much larger, in fact, about twice as large.
RMS also explained how Katrina came in east of Lake Pontchartrain, while Ida came in to the west. With the counter-clockwise rotation of low pressure systems in the northern hemisphere, that meant Katrina pushed water toward New Orleans and Ida pushed water away.
The forward speed of a storm can make a huge difference in the types of damage it causes compared to its rotational speed. Category 4 Harvey, for instance, stalled over Houston for days, dropping torrential rains. But Category 5 Hurricane Andrew ripped through south Florida in hours. Harvey flooded homes. Andrew tore them apart.
This article gives you both insights and food for thought that can help you prepare better for the next storm. It’s highly recommended reading.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/7/2021 based on a story by Bonnie Berkowitz and Laris Karklis in The Washington Post and data from RMS
1470 Days since Hurricane Harvey